Erik Ottosson & Fredrik Weissenrieder, CVA. Cash Value Added  a new method for measuring financial performance.


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1 CVA Cash Value Added  a ew method for measurig fiacial performace Erik Ottosso Strategic Cotroller Sveska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA Box 7827 S Stockholm Swede Fredrik Weisserieder Departmet of Ecoomics Gotheburg Uiversity ad Cosultat withi Value Based Maagemet FWC AB Aschebergsgata 22 S Göteborg Swede Study No 1996:1 CVA Cash Value Added A ew method for measurig fiacial performace Erik Ottosso Fredrik Weisserieder 1
2 CVA Cash Value Added  a ew method for measurig fiacial performace Shareholders have fiacial requiremets o maagemet s strategic decisios, i.e. strategic ivestmets. Those are the decisios i corporatios that create value. It should therefore be obvious that those ivestmets are the oes that should be fiacially evaluated  from the shareholders perspective. I the last decade both scholars ad practitioers have started to emphasize the importace of ofiacial performace measuremets such as the Balaced Scorecard proposed by Kapla ad Norto i. Despite their focus o ofiacial measuremets, they emphasize the importace of measurig compay success also i fiacial terms; A failure to covert improved operatioal performace, as measured i the Scorecard, ito improved fiacial performace should sed executives back to their drawig boards to rethik the compay s strategy or its implemetatio plas. The fudametal problem is that corporate maagemet has o accurate method of measurig fiacial performace. As show by Salomo ii already 30 years ago traditioal measuremets such as the ROI do ot give maagemet correct guidace whe evaluatig the fiacial outcome of their ivestmet strategies. The biases i accoutig causes maagemet to choose iappropriate ivestmet strategies sice maagemet is iflueced by their iaccurate perceptio of successful ad usuccessful busiesses. It is ot a acceptable situatio that eormous values could be destroyed due to icorrect maagemet iformatio. Maagemet eeds a model that bridges the gap betwee measuremets of historic fiacial performace ad ivestmet evaluatio, i order to make better strategic choices. The model must have the Value Based Maagemet approach i.e. it has to measure discouted cash flow, sice cash flow ad time value of moey determies value. I this paper we preset a ew model that itroduces a relevat cash flow bechmark which will make it possible to measures historic fiacial performace based o discouted cash flow. Measure the value of strategies usig discouted cash flow models Most compaies realized years ago that methods based o discouted cash flow must be used for ivestmet aalysis or whe valuig the future. However, for ogoig fiacial performace measuremet the ivestor s cash flow based perspective is substituted with the accoutat s accrual accoutig perspective. This is ot a acceptable situatio for maagemet. Maagemet must be able to cosistetly evaluate the compay from the ivestor s perspective. From the ivestors perspective, profitability ad value creatio i compaies are a fuctio of the fuds iitially ivested i oe or may vetures, their operatig cash flows, the ecoomic lives of those, ad their capital costs. Shareholders wat to make moey o the compay s vetures ad therefore have fiacial requiremets o maagemet s strategic decisios, i.e. strategic ivestmets. All additioal, ostrategic outlays with the purpose of maitaiig the origial value of the veture should be cosidered as costs. To measure the fiacial outcome of the strategic ivestmet decisios should be the foudatio for ay model measurig fiacial performace. A focus o strategic ivestmets will give maagers a better chace to form the future of their compaies. Figure 1 below illustrates the logic. The iitial strategic ivestmet will geerate a cash flow over its ecoomic life, correspodig to a preset value of A. The size of the iitial ivestmet, I, i relatio to A will determie the project s profitability. The lies B1 to B5 idicate ostrategic ivestmets with the purpose of prevetig the expected cash flows to drop accordig to C1 or C2 etc. I.e., ostrategic ivestmets made to defed the iitial value of the strategic ivestmet  the value that the strategy was supposed to have accordig to the iitial strategic ivestmet s request. Hece, ostrategic ivestmets are ot iteded to create ew value. Note that the ostrategic ivestmets i accoutig terms would or 2
3 mally be capitalized if the ecoomic life of the specific ivestmet would be loger tha oe year. I the CVAmodel they would istead be treated as costs sice they are made to maitai the value of the strategic ivestmet. The dotted lie D represets a strategic margial ivestmet, i.e. the ivestmet D chages the fudametal value of the iitial strategic ivestmet by extedig its ecoomic life combied with e.g. a capacity icrease. PV(Cash Flow) A I B1 B2 B3 D C1 C2 B4 B5 Figure 1 Ecoomic life of iitial strategic ivestmet It is crucial for maagemet to uderstad ad decide what to treat as strategic ivestmets sice this should impact all strategic plaig ad cotrol processes i a compay. What ivestmets to cosider as value creatig strategic ivestmets has to be idustry specific ad ca ot be left to accoutats or auditors to decide. Traditioal maagemet accoutig causes maagemet to waste valuable time o cotrollig ad evaluatig ostrategic ivestmets, which are more or less a result of past strategic ivestmet decisios. To sped time o ostrategic ivestmet decisios also distorts maagemet s busiess uderstadig, sice the retur o ostrategic ivestmets are ofte very differet from the overall retur o the strategic ivestmet (which is the retur that matters to ivestors). Focusig o ostrategic ivestmets also distorts maagemet s perceptio of the uderlyig pace of the busiess sice the frequecy of ostrategic ivestmet decisios will be much higher tha the frequecy of strategic ivestmet decisios. Maagemet should istead focus o the strategic ivestmets ad the resultig logterm ivestmet patter of ostrategic ivestmets that the strategic ivestmets will create. This could e.g. greatly improve maagemet s ability to uderstad whether the most profitable ivestmet strategy is to exted the ecoomic life of their existig plats ad machiery by may strategic margial ivestmets (ivestmet D i the graph) or whether the most profitable strategy is to avoid strategic margial ivestmets ad istead ru existig assets dow i order to make ew major strategic ivestmets (ivestmet A i the graph) i completely ew machiery thereafter. The model preseted i this paper allows maagemet to focus o a more limited umber of relevat strategic ivestmets. Maagemet s time will be used more efficietly. The model will provide maagemet with relevat feedback o the fiacial outcome of past ivestmet decisios, helpig them i avoidig to repeat poor ivestmet decisios i the future ad to idetify the truly profitable ivestmets. 3
4 Pre strategy value ad strategy value Erik Ottosso & Fredrik Weisserieder, The positive effect o a compay s stock market value from beig able to idetify the truly profitable ivestmets i the future should ot be uderestimated. Some would say that history does ot matter for the future. We do ot believe that oe ca disregard or forget historic performace that easily. A compay that has had a poor shareholder retur over a period of several years has probably failed to lear from its past. Not learig from the past meas makig the same poor strategic ivestmet decisios over ad over agai. The model preseted i this paper will help maagemet to more easily lear from past mistakes. Whe a compay starts to make the coectio betwee historic ad future developmet o the stock market ad maagemet s historic strategic ivestmet decisios ad plas for future strategic ivestmets, the possibility occurs to actually improve the situatio for the stockholders. A stock price ca be said to be the sum of two values. First, the Pre Strategy Value which is the preset value today of the remaiig operatig cash flow from the compay s busiess as it is today, without ay further strategic ivestmets (e.g. $200 per share). This Pre Strategy Value ca probably be fairly well calculated ad is probably well maaged i most compaies. The profitability of past ivestmets, i.e. the operatig cash flow i relatio to the strategic ivestmet that was historically made to produce this operatig cash flow, does ot affect the stock price. Oly the value of the remaiig operatig cash flow from the compay s busiess as it is today matters to the stock price. Pre Strategy Value +/ Strategy Value Stock Market Value E.g.: $200 $40 per share  per share $160 per share Figure 2 The secod elemet of the Stock Market Value is the Strategy Value which is the preset value of the cash flow from the strategic decisios ad ivestmets that lie ahead of us (e.g. $40 per share implyig that the stock market believes the compay will make more ivestmets with egative et preset values (NPV) tha with positive NPV). Here, the profitability of the strategic ivestmets, i.e. the aticipated future operatig cash flows i relatio to the cost of each future strategic ivestmet, determies the strategy value. This is where the importace of kowig a compay s historic performace comes i. Uderstadig oes historic profitability gives a uderstadig of how the stock market might value this Strategy Value. It caot be assumed that compaies that have had a poor developmet o the stock market are likely to perform better i the future. We therefore believe that the Strategy Value i may cases is much overestimated by maagemet. Most compaies, because they assume they will be profitable i the future, believe that this value is positive i their compaies, which is ofte ot the case. Half of all compaies (by defiitio i theory iii ) have positive strategy values ad the other half have egative strategy values. If maagemet caot evaluate historic profitability cosistet with how they evaluate future profitability they have little ability of objectively evaluate whether their plas for the future creates or destroys value. A compay that has had a poor developmet o the stock market durig a period of time is likely to have had egative Strategy Values durig that period. If the stock cosistetly uder performs it is ot ulikely that the stock market believes that future strategic ivestmets will also have egative NPV. Why should the stock market react ay differetly uless maagemet has chaged their behavior? The stock market is therefore likely to deduct a egative Strategy Value from the Pre Strategy Value 4
5 (istead of addig a positive Strategy Value which is the case i compaies that create wealth) ad the stock will be further depressed. Not may maagers would cotiuously ad itetioally chose strategies with egative NPVs. Our coclusio is that maagers ofte overvalue their historical profitability ad therefore erroeously believe that repeatig past performace whe makig ew strategic ivestmets will be sufficiet to create value. Traditioal profitability measuremets have left maagers at a loss whe tryig to detect this situatio. This has potetially caused may maagers to choose iappropriate actios to reverse a poor stock market performace. The Cash Value Added method The model preseted here is called the Cash Value Added (CVA) model ad is, i its desig, very simple. It icludes oly cash items, i.e. Earigs Before Depreciatio Iterest ad Tax (EBDIT, adjusted for ocash charges), workig capital movemet ad ostrategic ivestmets. The sum of those three items is the Operatig Cash Flow (OCF). The OCF is compared with a cash flow requiremet, the Operatig Cash Flow Demad (OCFD). This OCFD represets the cash flow eeded to meet the ivestor s fiacial requiremets o the compay s strategic ivestmets, i.e. the capital cost. Istead of measurig the ivestor s opportuity cost of capital i percetage terms the CVA model uses the ivestor s opportuity cost of capital i cash terms. The differece betwee the OCF ad the OCFD is the Cash Value Added  CVA. The CVA for a period is a good estimate of the cash flow geerated above or below the ivestor s requiremet for that period. Note that this aalysis ca be doe at each level of the compay ad that the CVA for the compay is the aggregate CVA of its Strategic ivestmets. NPV(Ivestmet) PV(OCF )  Ivestmet PV(OCF )  PV(OCFD ) OCF 1 OCF r) OCFD ( OCFD 1 OCF  OCFD OCF  OCFD 1 1 CVA CVA PV(CVA ) The OCFD is calculated i three steps: 1. Idetificatio of the iitial outlay for each strategic ivestmet still i use i a strategic busiess uit. 2. Estimate each strategic ivestmet s ecoomic life. 3. Fid which omial cash flow each strategic ivestmet must produce every period (year/quarter/ moth) i order to give that strategic ivestmet a NPV iv of zero i a omial calculatio. The OCFD is assumed to be the same i real terms each year. Hece the cash flow i the omial calculatio chages oly with historic outcome of iflatio if the CVA aalysis is made o historic data, ad future estimated iflatio, for the remaiig OCFD. If a CVA aalysis is made for future aalysis oly, i.e. if the strategic ivestmet is to be made ow or i the followig years, the first year s OCFD for a ivestmet (here with a ecoomic life of years) ca also be calculated as (assumig that future iflatio is costat): Ivestmet amout OCFD Year 1 r  Iflatio  OCFD Year 1 (1 + Iflatio) r  Iflatio 5
6 If we solve this equatio for OCFD Year 1 we get the followig: OCFD Year 1 Ivestmet amout 1 r  Iflatio  (1 + Iflatio) r  Iflatio The total OCFD for a compay equals the sum of the OCFDs o each strategic ivestmet for ay period; i the past, i the preset, ad i the future. If the compay is to add value to its stockholder, the NPV of the CVA must be positive. The CVA Idex The CVA Idex gives aother dimesio of the CVAmodel. The CVA Idex is calculated as the OCF divided by the OCFD ad is fully i agreemet with the Profitability Idex v. Pr ofitability Idex PV(OCF1.. ) ) Ivestme t PV(OCF1.. PV( OCFD ) 1.. CVA Idex The CVA Idex makes it possible to compare differet uits profitability i a way cosistet with fiacial theory. A CVA Idex above 1 idicates that the strategic ivestmet produces sufficiet OCF. The CVA Idex ca also be split ito its four Value Drivers (i relatio to sales): the Operatig Surplus margi, the Workig Capital Movemet (WCM) margi, the Nostrategic Ivestmet margi, ad the OCFD margi Operatig Surplus margi + WCM margi + No  strategic ivestmet margi OCFD margi CVA Idex The sum of the first three divided by the fourth equals the CVA Idex. By further aalyzig those four Value Drivers, ad the variables that built each Value Driver (Appedix 1), compaies ca lear more about what i their busiess that has created value historically. The historic variables, ad thereby also the Value Drivers, ca easily be adjusted for what ca be assumed i the future for a strategy. Maagemet will the have a powerful tool for aalyzig the value ad profitability of the specific strategy ad of ew strategies of similar structure. If maagemet ca evaluate whether historic margis have bee sufficiet or ot they ca more easily uderstad whether their plas for the future will brig value to the ivestors, i.e. if plaed strategic ivestmets are likely to have a CVA Idex > 1. This kowledge could greatly improve the maagemet decisio makig process. 6
7 Capital costs i accoutig vs. capital cost i the CVA model I idustries with log ecoomic life of their strategic ivestmets, accoutig ROI ofte makes busiesses look uprofitable i the first years after startup ad profitable i the latter part of their ecoomic life. This occurs whe the iitial strategic ivestmet is much larger tha the followig ostrategic ivestmets, resultig i a very low capital employed i the deomiator i the late years. If a busiess geerates a costat stream of cash flow i real terms over its ecoomic life, accoutig ROI would costatly icrease over the ecoomic life of the strategic ivestmet. I this respect accoutig ROItargets represets movig bechmarks. This make accoutig ROI ito a questioable performace measuremet, sice it will make maagers who expad through profitable ivestmets look like poor performers. A fudametal differece betwee accoutig ad the CVAmethod is that the CVAmethod holds maagers resposible for the evaluatio of the CVAiformatio. The CVAidex i a specific year could be compared with temperature. The measuremet i itself is fixed ad ot relative to chagig coditios. We believe it should be left to the beholder to judge whether 5 C is good or bad. It could be argued that most ivestmets should be most profitable i the earlier part of its ecoomic life, i.e. its profitability should deteriorate over time whe maiteace costs icrease, time efficiecy goes dow ad the competitio from ew more efficiet techology depresses the market price of the product. The CVAidex will help maagers to uderstad this busiess logic sice it i real terms represets a fixed bechmark. Most strategic ivestmets will have a CVAidex higher tha 1.0 whe they are most competitive, i.e. i the earlier part of their ecoomic life. Over time the CVAidex is likely to decrease ad whe the assets ecoomic life is early over the cash geeratig capacity is likely to be very low, resultig i a poor CVAidex. A fixed bechmark will help maagers to accumulate kowledge about the logterm cash geeratig capacity of their strategic ivestmets. The CVAidex developmet ca easily be compared to learig curves, product ad techology lifecycle curves. Usig the CVAidex as a performace measuremet, maagers have a tool for cotiuously improve their uderstadig of the lik betwee fiacial performace ad uderlyig busiess realities. Example: The example below i Table 1 illustrates the CVA model i its basic form with oe strategic ivestmet. The amout of the strategic ivestmet is $100 millio. Note that this strategic ivestmet could be a R&D ivestmet or a ivestmet i advertisig ad promotio buildig brad equity. It is the strategic decisio i itself ad what the ivestmet is meat to do (create or maitai value) that determies if it should be cosidered to be a strategic ivestmet. The iitial ivestmet i workig capital could be cosidered as part of the strategic ivestmet. The ecoomical life is estimated to be 11 years. The strategic ivestmet has i this case bee ruig for 7 out of those 11 years. The historic iflatio has bee 3% ad the same iflatio rate is assumed for the future. The pretax cost of capital (WACC) is 15%. The OCFD is evely distributed (i real terms) over the estimated life of the strategic ivestmet. The CVA shows i which periods the strategic ivestmet returs more or less OCF compared to the ivestor s capital cost, the OCFD. The Average discouted CVA Idex is calculated as the PV of the OCFs divided by the PV of the OCFDs ad is 1.10 for the period. The strategic ivestmet has so far met its capital cost. Created Value ( Demaded Value ) is the PV of the OCFs (OCFDs) i 1995 s time value of moey ad amouts to 258 (234) M$ for the period. Cash Value Added is the differece betwee the Created Value ad the Demaded Value or the PV of the CVAs i 1995 s time value of moey ad amouts to 24 M$ for the period. 7
8 M$ Sales Costs Operatig Surplus Workig Capital Movemet Nostrategic Ivestmets Operatig Cash Flow Operatig Cash Flow Demad Cash Value Added CVA Idex Average discouted CVA Idex 1.10 Strategic Ivestmets 100 Cash Flow Created Value (up util 1995): 225 Value Drivers Demaded Value (up util 1995): 204 Operatig surplus 0.13 Cash Value Added (up to 1995): 21 Workig Capital Movemet 0.00 Nostrategic ivestmets Remaiig Value if Operatig Cash Flow Demad 0.10 future CVA Idex CVA Idex 1.10 future CVA Idex future CVA Idex Table 1 Remaiig Value is calculated as the expected future CVA Idex (here 0.90, 1.10, or 1.30) multiplied with the NPV of the remaiig OCFDs ( ). This ca be doe sice the future CVA Idex tells us the relatioship betwee the future OCF ad the remaiig OCFD. The future CVA Idex ca be calculated from what the future Value Drivers could be assumed to be. The variables that the ivestmet s value is most exposed to ca be idetified ad hadled through sesitivity aalysis Operatig Cash Flow Operatig Cash Flow Demad Figure 3; The figure shows the outcome of the OCF compared to the OCFD. Figure 3 is a simple illustratio of the example s geeratio of cash i relatio to the yearly cash flow eeded (the Operatig Cash Flow Demad ) to evetually reach a NPV of zero. 8
9 20 Net Preset Value developmets NPV developmet of Cash Flow NPV developmet of Cash Flow Demad Figure 4; The curves preset the Net Preset Value developmet of the example s cash flow ad the cash flow demad. They are each calculated as: 1988 icludes the first cash flow i the NPV calculatio, i.e. the iitial ivestmet icludes the first two cash flows i the NPV calculatio, i.e. the iitial ivestmet ad the first year s cash iflow, ad so o. The NPV developmet of the cash flow demad reaches, by defiitio, the Xaxis (NPV 0) at the ed of the strategic ivestmets ecoomic life. Figure 4 is a importat illustratio of strategies value creatio. It gives maagers a straightforward picture of how strategies perform fiacially takig time value of moey ito accout to the fullest extet. The figure stimulates maagemet to figure out whe ad how to make better ivestmets. At what poit i the geeral ecoomy should we ivest? Whe ca we expect differet strategies to meet the demad? Which strategies produce more value i the begiig of its life cycle ad which loose value to begi with ad the catch up? M$ 258 Cash Value Geerated CVA Idex 1.00 CVA Idex Cash Value Geerated / Cash Value Demaded 1.10 Cash Value Added Cash Value Geerated  Cash Value Demaded 24 M$ 234 M$ Cash Value Demaded Figure 5; I 1995 s value of moey ad assumig that the operatig cash flow geerated is reivested at the Weighted Average Cost of Capital, i.e. 15%, we get the followig illustratio of the example s value. The values are calculated usig the period s discouted CVA Idex. Those illustratios ca be made for idividual strategic ivestmets or for a aggregate level givig maagemet sufficiet value ad profitability iformatio. Focus o compoets relevat for value 9
10 The CVA model icludes oly topics relevat to discuss for maagemet. Attetio is ot diverted to discussios about ovalue creatig accoutig issues. The model is simple ad tightly liked to the ogoig operatios ad, therefore, it ca be used by maagers for uderstadig ad commuicatig busiess realities. It is simple because it oly measures cash flow ad has the focused purpose to show whether strategic ivestmets are profitable or ot. Its purpose is ot maily to guide bodholders, tax authorities, auditors, employees or media. Istead, its purpose is to guide maagers i everyday busiess decisios. It is our impressio that compaies have little faith i fiacial iformatio today. If maagemet has little faith they do ot act o the fiacial iformatio at had which makes it useless. A divisio that today does ot meet their target ROI may ot recosider their plas ad strategies. However, if the iformatio give to them comes from a model which is theoretically soud ad easy to relate to the uderlyig busiess they will more likely act o the fiacial iformatio. The activitybased costig models itroduced i the 80 s caused compaies to reassess the profitability of products ad customers. We believe that the CVA model could cause compaies to reassess ot oly the profitability of products ad customers but of etire busiesses. Util ow it has ot bee evidet to maagemet whe they should go back to their drawig boards to rethik the compay s strategy. With the CVAmodel this will become much clearer. i The Balaced Scorecard  Measures That Drive Performace by Robert S. Kapla ad David P. Norto (Harvard Busiess Review, JauaryFebruary 1992, page 7179) ii Ezra Solomo, Retur o Ivestmet: The Relatio of Bookyield to True Yield ; Research i Accoutig Measuremets (Chicago: America Accoutig Associatio, 1966) iii Values are calculated usig discoutig methods, e.g. the Net Preset Value method. A discout rate is used for discoutig. This discout rate chose should be the opportuity cost for the ivestmet. This opportuity cost is derived from the average retur o the markets i the future. Hece, by defiitio, half of the future ivestmets will be profitable while the other half will ot. iv A appropriate capital cost should be used. If a pretax capital cost is used obviously the Cash Flow Demad should be compared with a pretax cash flow ad vice versa. v Busiess ivestmet decisios by Hirst I.R.C
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