The World Economic Forum: Non-profit community of leaders from business, government and civil society

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1 Trade & Risk

2 The World Economic Forum: Non-profit community of leaders from business, government and civil society Communities Impact Interaction Insight

3 Recent supply chain-related initiatives Humanitarian Relief Supply Chain Risk Anti-Corruption Supply Chain Decarbonization Enabling Trade MADE IN THE WORLD Future Manufacturing Strategic Infrastructure

4 World Economic Forum Global Agenda Council Ministerial Meetings Enabling Trade Report

5 Enabling Trade

6 Reducing supply chain barriers has a larger effect than removing tariffs Countries improve trade facilitation halfway to global best practice Countries improve trade facilitation halfway to regional best practice All tariffs removed globally The GDP effect of reducing supply chain barriers is much higher than for tariffs *Based on export value; includes only the effect of Border Administration and Telecommunication and Transport Infrastructure. Source: Ferrantino, Geiger and Tsigas, The Benefits of Trade Facilitation - A Modelling Exercise. Based on 2007 baseline.

7 Ambitious scenario: The strongest relative increase would be seen in Africa and SEA 71% 33% 11% 7% United States and Canada 2% 6% Europe, except FSU 26% 10% Russia and other FSU 9% 9% Korea Other oil producers 11% Mexico 26% 30% 74% 46% 34% Non-oil Middle East and North Africa 63% 55% 65% 49% South and Central Asia 12% 18% Southeast Asia 11% Japan 31% 34% China, Hong Kong, Taiwan 3% Brazil Sub-Saharan Africa 38% 39% 1% 2% Rest of Americas Oceania GDP INCREASE TRADE INCREASE 2-3% 4-5% 6-8% 9% Exports Imports Source: Ferrantino, Geiger and Tsigas: The Benefits of Trade Facilitation- A Modeling Exercise, based on 2007 base line; Ambitious Scenario

8 Increase in global income could also stimulate employment Aggressive scenario (4.7% GDP increase) Modest scenario (2.6% GDP increase) Lower range of 171 country study Study based on US data beginning in 1948 Council of Economic Advisors to US President Higher range of 171 country study Source: Council of Economic Advisors to US President (2009); Ball et al., 2012; Criveli et al., 2012.

9 SMEs face proportionally higher barriers EBAY PILOTS SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT UPSIDE FROM REDUCING BARRIERS International sales Domestic sales 11%-15% Total International All Domestic Note: Assumes same average revenue per listing in domestic and international markets; author calculations based on US ebay pilot studies preliminary results. Source: Company data; interviews; based on preliminary, targeted US pilot results; authors calculations

10 Lack of standardized regulations and coordination between agencies create barriers RULES OF ORIGIN AND LOCAL CONTENT REQUIREMENTS VARY ACROSS MARKETS POOR COORDINATION BETWEEN AGENCIES DELAYS SHIPMENTS Certification process Saudi Arabia Egypt Apply to certification body or accredited lab Production Inspection Apply to local CIQ Issue certification Pre-shipment Inspection Production Issue certification Shipping Shipping Egypt requires production before the certification can be started Source: Egypt GOEIC (General Organization for Export and Import Control); Saudi Arabia Standard Organization

11 Companies should recognize costs Initial view suggests Mexico is 25% cheaper Net benefit of 9% Border administration, inadequate infrastructure, reduced availability of local suppliers, security and lower productivity labour increase the cost 16% Note: Hypothetical example based on Bain experience

12 Policy implication: Think Supply Chains! 1 Create a national mechanism to set policy priorities for improving supply chain efficiency based on objective performance data and feedback loops between government and firms. 2 Create a single agency that has a mandate to coordinate and oversee all regulation that impacts directly on supply chain efficiency. 5 Launch a global effort to pursue conversion of manual and paper-based documentation to electronic systems, using globally-agreed data formats. Policy Recommendations International Cooperation 3 Ensure that SME interests are represented in the policy prioritization process and solutions are designed to address specific constraints that impact disproportionately on SMEs. 4 Whether through multilateral or regional agreements, governments should agree to pursue a whole of the supply chain approach rather than pursuing negotiations in different pillars or silos.

13 Next Steps - Ensuring supply-chain approaches to trade facilitation remain high on the global agenda. - Supporting implementation of trade-facilitation recommendations, particularly electronic information exchange - Increasing understanding of the effects of supply chain facilitation on waste, particularly food waste Food Waste Scope Planting & Growing Harvest Processing Storage & Transport Distribution Consumption & Waste Disposal 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Typical Waste Profile by Region Consumption Distribution Transport & Storage Processing Harvest Agriculture Emerging Industrialized

14 World Economic Forum Global Risk Network Supply Chain Risk Cyber Risk

15 Global Risk Landscape

16 Risk Interconnectivity

17 Interest in supply chain risk Heightened public discussion on risk preparedness within supply chains and transport networks. - Splicing and distributing risks in the financial sector led to hidden risk concentration. Are there parallels in supply chains? - Disasters and disruptions in one area led to unanticipated problems appearing elsewhere or generalized supply problems. What are the hidden knock-on effects? - Government security actions led to supply disruptions. Are we using the best policy responses? Evolving executive interest in supply chain risk

18 Indisputably, business trends have changed supply chain risks Route / Vehicle Hubs Sources / Suppliers Destinations / Customers Information / Money

19 What are supply chain risk profiles? Supply chains are intended to deliver a specified good at a specified time risk profiles illustrate deviations from this ideal Value Difference from desired delivery time or state Any consignment has an ideal delivery time and state. Deviations from this reduce value. This can extend to negative value, ie harm. e.g wrong medicines delivered, or too late to find alternatives, or containing pathogens, or made with child labour. Risk profiles may not be symmetrical. Early delivery is generally less value-destroying than late delivery. The harm from delivering the wrong thing, or late, may be greater than the value of perfect delivery. Supply chains may be reliable or unreliable, depending on design Probability Tail risk may be independent of reliability Value Risk profiles are complex with mutliple potential failure modes and mechanisms changes to robustness or fragility in one area, may effect other areas. Furthermore supply chains are evolving and learning systems frequent small failures lead to greater robustness in the future.

20 What are systemic supply chain risks? Systemic, meaning «of the system», risks are a product of the design of the current economic and supply chain system, not easily avoided while abiding by the rules of this system. System-wide risks are those that threaten to impact a large part of the system, regardless of cause. We need to focus on the intersection of these risks, excluding risks with only localized impact or that could or should be avoided within current systems of incentives. System-wide Focus Area Systemic Examples: System-wide: Regional food shortages indicate a disruption to supply of a broad or important product class across a broad region for a period of time. Systemic: Sudden price spikes or supply gaps from short-term management and investment approach or regulatory change rice crisis 2009 auto bailout. Inevitably any major disruption will be felt along supply chains in a globalized world. Rather than considering all human disasters from wars to pestilence as supply chain problems, we focus on amplification or concetration effects of supply chain systems. 1) Supply Chain Cause General Disruption 2) Supply Chain Concentration Effect Examples: 1) Anthrax inserted into express logistics hubs 2) Irreplaceable singlesource supplier destroyed by flood. In practice, the delineation of systemic, system-wide supply chain risks is blurred and the dialogue has been a little broader.

21 Unexpected events can result in a cascading failure across regions or industries.

22 The vulnerabilities of a system can amplify the impact of an event A network setup that cannot absorb the shock and interconnected effects of an unexpected disruption can cause systemic risks. The strategic and operational decisions required to build resiliency are often beyond the direct control of any one player and need to be the focus of collaborative activity.

23 Supply chain design can change the potential value, reliability, tail risk and potential harm of supply chains Supply chain managers primarily want to increase reliability and achievable value the public wants to reduce tail risk. Supply chain managers primarily want to reduce the difference from desired delivery times and state and broaden the acceptable delivery window the public wants to reduce the impact of, and window for, significant harm. These goals may or may not be mutually supportive. Change Internationalization Specialization First Order Effects (debateable) Greater acheivable value, lower reliability, lower tail risk Greater acheivable value, higher reliability, higher tail risk Complexity Lean Visibility Greater acheivable value, complex tail risk Greater acheivable value, lower reliability, accelerated learning, lower tail risk Greater acheivable value, higher reliability, lower tail risk

24 Risk management methods most in need of improvement 24

25 Who cares? A common challenge is that managers focus on reducing cost and increasing reward reducing risk is not a priority. Also risk management is hard to sell as a competitive advantage. C-Suite executives and corporate boards, however, DO care about managing risk. How can we make risk management concerns trickle-down to procurement managers and others via incentive structures? How can we help risk management concerns trickle-up to industry bodies to find collaborative solutions?

26 Recommendations for Government and Business 26

27 What do you think are priorities for customer supplier external world co-operation? 27

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