Morgan Stanley European Financials Conference

Transcription

1 Morgan Stanley European Financials Conference Navigation through the crisis: Credit quality, earnings and capital April 1, 2009 Investor Relations

2 CORPORATE PARTICIPANTS Peter Straarup Danske Bank CEO Martin Gottlob Danske Bank Head of Investor Relations SPEECH Peter Straarup - Danske Bank - CEO Introduction Thank you for giving me the opportunity to talk about Danske Bank. We have been asked to give you some insight into how we are managing our bank during the ongoing economic crisis. Today I will focus specifically on three topics: credit quality, loss-absorption power, and capital. Danske Bank at a glance Most of you probably know us pretty well, but let me briefly recap our business profile before going into the focus areas of my short presentation today. Danske Bank is a universal, full-scale bank with 5 million customers and core activities in nine northern European countries. We are primarily a retail bank in the classical sense, with more than 80 per cent of revenues coming from relationships with private individuals, SMEs and large corporate customers. Nearly 90 per cent of our lending book originates in the Nordic countries that is, Denmark, Norway, Sweden and Finland. Today our focus is on protecting our franchise and managing our current activities in the tough market conditions. Consequently, we have decided not to focus on growth either organic growth or acquisitions and mergers. Historic financial targets have been cancelled through the market developments. Lending and credit exposure In these markets, asset quality is key. On this slide, you can see our lending book and credit exposure broken down geographically and by industry. The geographical areas we are most concerned about at the moment are Ireland and the three Baltic countries. Our exposure to these countries, however, is relatively modest, around 4 and 2 per cent of our lending book. Additionally, Denmark went into recession before the other Nordic countries, causing a rise in impairment charges in Denmark. But the Danish economy is flexible, and its fundamentals are sound. We therefore expect Denmark to emerge from the cycle in better condition than most other countries in our geography. 2

3 When we assess credit quality by exposure to various industries, it is probably fair to say that no business is totally immune to this crisis. But some industries are likely to have tougher times than others under the current macroeconomic conditions. In our opinion, the industries that are likely to face more difficulties are commercial property, construction and building materials, transportation and shipping, and private equity. These segments represent around 14 per cent of our total credit exposure. It is therefore fair to conclude that this exposure seems manageable. To sum up, I think that our credit portfolio has a relatively favourable diversification across geographical regions and industries. This gives us a good foundation for managing the portfolio in the difficult period ahead. Credit management Credit management is obviously one of our top focus areas at the moment. Loan impairment charges and write-offs On this slide, you can see our loan impairment charges and actual write-offs during the past four years. As the chart shows, our loan impairment charges last year were much higher than in the preceding years. The write-offs are still at a relatively low level. The high impairment charges reflect our response to the dramatic economic decline that has been taking place worldwide. The developments in the last months of 2008 in particular convinced us that these impairments were necessary. I would like to note that the loan impairment charges of 12 billion Danish kroner last year include collective impairment charges of 3.3 billion. Stress test scenarios We also conduct extensive stress testing. The objective of stress testing is to assess the effect of possible unfavourable events on the Groups capital requirement under Pillar I and the development in its internal economic capital. We have taken several measures to deal proactively with the current market environment. We have realigned our credit functions, focused on credit portfolio management, and adjusted our credit policy to the prevailing conditions. Let me give you some concrete examples of these measures. We use nine main macroeconomic scenarios in the testing. I think the two recession scenarios mild and severe are probably the most relevant at the moment. As you can see from the chart, our severe recession scenario produces expected annual impairment charges of 64 to 72 basis points during the models three-year period. In realigning our credit functions, we have, for example centralised the credit management in Ireland, and strengthened workout functions. In our credit portfolio management, we have stepped up monitoring, intensified dialogue with customers, and enhanced the speed in adjustments of individual ratings and impairments. And regarding credit policies, we have strongly emphasised pricing, discipline, we have restricted lending to certain customer segments and industries, and used particular caution in lending to new customers, and in some cases depending on the customer segment and industry refrained completely. The macroeconomic assumptions for a severe recession are GDP growth of minus 2.3 per cent; the unemployment rate increasing to 8.5 per cent; and house prices falling by nearly 20 per cent. These figures refer to the worst year for GDP and house price declines. Profit before loan impairments It is likely that banks will face hard times going forward, and loan losses are almost inevitably going to be high in comparison with the benign conditions we have seen in the past 10 years. Our philosophy is that generating robust earnings is the first line of defence against rising credit costs. We are therefore giving much attention to ensuring that the Banks earnings are strong enough to cover the losses we are facing. 3

4 This chart shows our profit before loan impairment charges and our loan impairment charges as a percentage of loans and guarantees for the past four years. For this year and the next two years we have included our stress test results. The chart illustrates the loss-absorption power of our earnings going forward. Our earnings are more or less on par with consensus loan impairment charges for 2009 and We cannot tell whether our stress test results or analysts consensus estimates proves to be closer to the truth. But it is clear that the level of profit before impairment charges will be crucial in determining how well we absorb the actual credit losses. Obviously, we are not able to predict future developments precisely from historical experience. We are encountering new territory in the rampant financial crisis. The crisis has led to an economic decline at a speed that none of us has seen before. Earnings before loan impairment charges On this slide, I give you some indication of the likely trends in our earnings going forward. It also shows some concrete actions we have taken to ensure our solid earnings capacity. Net interest income is the most important source of income for us. It accounts for more than 60 per cent of our total income. It is obvious that we must make sure that the robust development we saw last year continues. We intend to do this primarily by continuing to widen our lending margins. This is especially important since the developments on the financial markets are likely to increase margin pressure on deposits and possibly increase our funding costs. Danske Markets customers trading activity has remained at a high level in the beginning of the year. We continue to give cost management top priority as we streamline the Group for the new times. We have taken several measures to manage our costs. Here are some examples: Staff reduction of 350 positions at our head offices. This was announced along with our annual report, and it has already been executed. In addition, there is natural attrition on the front line. Reduced performance payments throughout the organisation. Termination of our credit default swaps, which will reduce our annual costs by 400 million Danish kroner from the beginning of Sampo Bank synergies, which are progressing according to plan. Capital and loss-absorption capacity When we assess the Banks loss-absorption capacity, we must of course also take into account the amount of losses that can be absorbed by capital. On this slide, I will start by explaining briefly how the Danish credit package agreed upon in February this year changed Danish banks solvency requirements and what this means for Danske Bank. Under the old rule, the minimum tier 1 capital was 4 per cent. Under the new rule, the minimum ratio is unchanged, but hybrid capital can be used to meet this threshold. At Danske Bank, we are aiming to raise our hybrid capital to around 35 per cent of equity, and this will thus lower our minimum equity requirement to 2.6 per cent. This means that the new hybrid capital will increase our total tier 1 capital by 26 billion kroner and our total tier 1 ratio to 12 per cent, which will be one of the highest tier 1 ratios in Europe. Furthermore, we have applied to receive an option to convert the hybrid loan into share capital. Such conversion right would apply if the proportion of hybrid capital is to exceed 35 per cent of total core capital. The conversion option would mean that the Group could always obtain the greatest possible benefit for its solvency from the hybrid capital. Assuming that the Danish state accepts this option, our equity based loss-absorption capacity will increase by 24 billion. We will not expect the conversion immediately after if the proportion of hybrid capital exceeds 35 per cent. The right-hand chart illustrates our loss absorption capacity without taking the potential option into account. It shows that our total loss absorption capacity or the distance to default is some 70 billion Danish kroner when taking into account the consensus estimate for our pre credit loss profit and the estimated credit cost. 4

5 Hybrid capital instead of equity On this slide, I would like give you an idea how we see the various options for improving solvency ratios and tell you a little about why we consider hybrid capital, instead of equity, the right solution for us at this time. There are pros and cons for both options. Hybrid Average expected annual credit costs of 68 basis points according to our stress test scenario for a severe recession Earnings Current earnings generation is strong enough to cover estimated credit costs Focus on increasing the loss-absorption capacity of earnings going forward Fulfils the legal solvency requirement without diluting share value Can be repaid after the crisis Keeps Return on Equity unchanged (except for interest) Makes the leverage of the equity ex hybrid larger While equity Dilutes share value from day 1 Is very expensive because of the low Price to Net Asset Value ratio Will cause Return on Equity to decline Improves first-tranche loss-absorption capacity Capital Best-in-class tier 1 ratio after the hybrid capital injection High loss-absorption capacity, further enhanced by new capital adequacy rules We do not see a need for more equity capital at this time That concludes my presentation. I wish to thank you for your attention. I will be happy to address any questions you might have during the panel discussion that we will hold shortly. As I said earlier, we think the best way to address increasing credit costs is to make sure that the Banks earnings capacity is strong enough to cover them. At present, we consider this the likely scenario. If we get the option to convert the hybrid loan into share capital, the hybrid loan combines the best of the two options. Since we expect to come through the recession with most of our capital intact, it is therefore reasonable to avoid a cash call on our shareholders at this time. As you all know, equity capital is diluting up-front, and we see it as a very expensive option given the current price in relation to net asset value. Summary Let me sum up the focus areas of my short presentation today. Credit Relatively favourable diversification in the loan book Realigned credit functions, proactive credit portfolio management and adjusted credit policy 5