Solar Eruption - How to Understand It
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- Jane Lewis
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1 Understanding solar eruptions: an observational perspective on space weather Karel Schrijver Lockheed Martin Advanced Technology Center Solar-C; 2013/11/11; Takayama, Japan
2 Space weather user objectives: For space assets (energetic-particle impacts on S/C and astronauts) and for radio communications (including navigation and timing): forecast with at least 24-h lead time when an eruption of specified magnitude will go off, and what the associated energetic particles populations and shocks will be that propagate earthward. For long ground-based conductors, including electric power grids: forecast with at least 24-h lead time what the magnetic properties are of the field erupting into the heliosphere towards Earth-Sun L1 [because L1 is far too close].
3 In solar-physics terms: Objectives: 24h ahead of time, forecast the timing and magnitude of flares and eruptive events, specify the field geometry of the erupting rope and of the overlying field, and predict pathways and population properties of energetic particles. Needs: understanding of the injection, storage, and release of energy into active-region coronae, and their surrounding fields. Data: active-region details [Solar-C] and global-sun field [e.g., SDO, STEREO, SoHO, to drive coronal-heliospheric model].
4 2010/08/01
5 Energy buildup/storage Energy conversion/release Field configuration reaches non-equilibrium state How much? When? In what form?
6 Need to understand: * energy released in flares (down to QS microflaring of ergs): O(0.5x total atmospheric losses). * energy released in flares from C1 upward: 1% of total radiated energy. * Why so little for larger events? * Power laws link small and large. Are all events similar and thus to be understood together? Energy buildup/storage Energy conversion/release Field configuration reaches non-equilibrium state How much? When? In what form? Need to understand: energy partitioning over * spectral irradiance, * bulk kinetic (CME), * energetic particles (reconnection & shock) and geometry of the erupting and overlying field and their interactions
7 Flux/rope emergence Modified shear Modified external field Energy buildup/storage Energy conversion/release Field configuration reaches non-equilibrium state How much? When? In what form?
8 Dynamo: flux emergence Flux transport: random walk, large-scale flows Eruption elsewhere: sympathy Flux/rope emergence Modified shear Modified external field Energy buildup/storage Energy conversion/release Field configuration reaches non-equilibrium state How much? When? In what form?
9 Dynamo: flux emergence Flux transport: random walk, large-scale flows Eruption elsewhere: sympathy Flux/rope emergence Modified shear Modified external field Energy buildup/storage Energy conversion/release Tether cutting Field configuration reaches non-equilibrium state Breakout How much? When? In what form?
10 Dynamo: flux emergence Flux transport: random walk, large-scale flows Eruption elsewhere: sympathy Flux/rope emergence Modified shear Modified external field Energy buildup/storage Energy conversion/release Tether cutting Field configuration reaches non-equilibrium state Breakout How much? When? In what form? X-ray flare, eruption
11 Dynamo: flux emergence Flux transport: random walk, large-scale flows Eruption elsewhere: sympathy Flux/rope emergence Modified shear Modified external field Energy buildup/storage Energy conversion/release Tether cutting Field configuration reaches non-equilibrium state Breakout How much? When? In what form? torus/kink instability plasma properties: set rise speed, spatial limit SEP, CME X-ray flare, eruption
12 Dynamo: flux emergence Flux transport: random walk, large-scale flows Eruption elsewhere: sympathy Flux/rope emergence Modified shear Modified external field Energy buildup/storage Energy conversion/release Tether cutting Field configuration reaches non-equilibrium state Breakout How much? When? In what form? torus/kink instability plasma properties: set rise speed, spatial limit SEP, CME Small scale Large scale Weak field Fibril eruption / EUV microflare QS filament eruption, EUV signature Strong field X-ray flare, eruption **?
13 Dynamo: flux emergence Flux transport: random walk, large-scale flows Eruption elsewhere: sympathy Flux/rope emergence Modified shear Modified external field Energy buildup/storage Energy conversion/release Tether cutting Field configuration reaches non-equilibrium state Breakout How much? When? In what form? torus/kink instability plasma properties: set rise speed, spatial limit SEP, CME Small scale Large scale Weak field Fibril eruption / EUV microflare QS filament eruption, EUV signature Strong field X-ray flare, eruption **?
14 Flux/rope emergence Modified shear Modified external field Field configuration reaches non-equilibrium state
15 Flux/rope emergence Modified shear Modified external field Field configuration reaches non-equilibrium state
16 Continuous, high-res. observing Photosphere/chromosphere Chromosphere/corona Large f.o.v. X/EUV context Flux/rope emergence Modified shear Modified external field Field configuration reaches non-equilibrium state Assimilation-driven model field
17 Continuous, high-res. observing Photosphere/chromosphere Chromosphere/corona Large f.o.v. X/EUV context Assimilation-driven model field
18 Continuous, high-res. observing Photosphere/chromosphere Chromosphere/corona Need lots of telemetry from Solar-C with context observations by Large f.o.v. X/EUV context SDO/STEREO supported by assimilative Assimilation-driven model field models (NLFFF, magnetofrictional, MHD)
19 Continuous, high-res. observing Photosphere/chromosphere Chromosphere/corona Need lots of telemetry from Solar-C with context observations by Large f.o.v. X/EUV context SDO/STEREO supported by assimilative Assimilation-driven model field Needs: matching resolutions on ARs; coordinated multi-instrument observing within Solar-C and with other observatories; LARGE TELEMETRY VOLUME!; investement in multiple fieldmodeling [NLFFF MHD] advances. models (NLFFF, magnetofrictional, MHD)
20 2011/02/15 01:40 UT Method: Malanushenko et al. (2012, ApJ 756, 152). Potential field Traced loops Best-fit QGR-NLFFF l.o.s integrated current density α>0 α<0
21 2011/02/15 02:25 UT Method: Malanushenko et al. (2012, ApJ 756, 152). Potential field Traced loops Best-fit QGR-NLFFF l.o.s integrated current density α>0 α<0
22 Continuous, high-res. observing Photosphere/chromosphere Chromosphere/corona Need lots of telemetry from Solar-C with context observations by Large f.o.v. X/EUV context SDO/STEREO supported by assimilative Assimilation-driven model field Needs: matching resolutions; coordinated multi-instrument observing within Solar-C and with other observatories; LARGE TELEMETRY VOLUME!; investement in multiple fieldmodeling [NLFFF MHD] advances. models (NLFFF, magnetofrictional, MHD)
23 Forecasting space weather Continuous, high-res. observing Photosphere/chromosphere Chromosphere/corona Need lots of telemetry from Solar-C with context observations by Large f.o.v. X/EUV context SDO/STEREO supported by assimilative Assimilation-driven model field Needs: matching resolutions; coordinated multi-instrument observing within Solar-C and with other observatories; LARGE TELEMETRY VOLUME!; investement in multiple fieldmodeling [NLFFF MHD] advances. models (NLFFF, magnetofrictional, MHD)
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