Trends in College and Career Readiness in the Kansas City 7-County Metropolitan Region

Transcription

1 Presented June 30, 2015 Trends in College and Career Readiness in the Kansas City 7-County Metropolitan Region Phase I Report Prepared by: Faculty and Staff of the Kansas City Area Education Research Consortium June 30, 2015 Kansas City Area Education Research Consortium (913) info@kcaerc.org

2 Research Team of the Kansas City Area Education Research Consortium (KC AERC) Brad Curs, Ph.D. Educational Leadership and Policy Analysis University of Missouri Columbia Mark Ehlert, Ph.D. Economics and Policy Analysis Research Center University of Missouri Columbia Morgan Grotewiel, Ph.D. Candidate University of Missouri Kansas City Haigen Huang, Ph.D. Education Policy University of Missouri Columbia Leigh Anne Taylor Knight, Ed.D. KC AERC Executive Director University of Kansas Jiaxi Li Department of Economics University of Missouri Columbia Tamera Murdock, Ph.D. Psychology University of Missouri Kansas City Whitney Onasch KC-AERC Program Coordinator University of Kansas Jiaxi Quan, Ph.D. KC AERC Database Manager University of Kansas

3 Acknowledgements The Kansas City region s high school graduates are entering a competitive global economy. It is a critical time to ensure all youth transition to adulthood with the 21 st century skills needed to be college and career ready. It is this knowledge and attitude that has fueled the local community to be interested in College and Career Readiness since the early years of the Kansas City Area Education Research Consortium (KC AERC). In 2009, key education stakeholders including local school leaders, community colleges and universities, foundations, civic leaders, businesses, and two state departments of education collaboratively identified Transitions from High School to Post Secondary: Access and Attainment as a part of the KC AERC research agenda. KC AERC hosted Dr. Melissa Roderick from the University of Chicago and Consortium on Chicago Schools Research at our 2010 Conference to share about understanding the relationship between students high school careers and preparation, their college selection choices and their post secondary outcomes through linked quantitative and qualitative research. With initial funding from the Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation, the first pilot projects on transitions undertaken by KC AERC included the Blue Valley and Olathe School Districts of Kansas and North Kansas City Schools of Missouri. Drs. Tamera Murdock and Carolyn Barber of UMKC and Dr. John Rury of KU led those efforts. Based on the initial work on the pilot projects, Dr. Jackie Spears of KSU and Dr. Murdock secured funding from the National Science Foundation to study how Math Matters on the academic pathway to college access and attainment. Momentum for advancing the region s knowledge of this led to a community partnership brokered by KC AERC and the P20 Council led by Dr. Tom Vansaghi (of Metropolitan Community College system) with REL Central of McREL to bring Dr. William Tierney of University of Southern California to Kansas City to share the Institute of Education Sciences Report he chaired on Helping Students Navigate the Path to College: What High Schools Can Do. Out of the community discussions at this conference grew the idea for this project entitled Trends in College and Career Readiness. Local stakeholders, specifically school districts and business leaders, identified the need to know the regional picture of our college and career readiness in order to better collaborate on leveraging regional resources for this cause. The Greater Kansas City Community Foundation stepped forward to fund the project. A special thanks is extended to the KC AERC Local Steering Committee as the members of this team have provided valuable and regular input to shape the direction, rationale and

4 approaches to this project. We also owe a tremendous intellectual debt to Drs. Donna Ginther and Joe Heppert of KU, current members and Dr. Mike Podgursky of MU, former member of the KC AERC Executive Committee. We are grateful to the many partners on this project who believe in the importance of leveraging resources to learn about this, in particular all the volunteers for the focus groups and our state department colleagues of the Missouri Department of Elementary and Secondary Education and the Kansas Department of Education who assisted us in gaining access to data for this report. We also want to take this opportunity to thank other members of the research teams at our participating universities who assisted with data retrieval and analysis, notably, Ms. Margie Gurwit and Mr. Seth Stahlheber at MU. We are encouraged by how the interest and community engagement in college and career readiness have continued to grow. It seems as if there are additional initiatives supported by local not for profits, education entities, chambers and businesses, and our grantmaking foundations sprouting up each day in the Kansas City region. One prime example is the Mid America Regional Council s leadership of the Lumina grant and GradForce KC, as well as the efforts growing out of these partnerships. All that being, increases significantly the importance of knowing and understanding the data we have and the data we need to make the best decisions. The results found in this report, Phase I of Trends in College and Career Readiness of the Kansas City Metropolitan Region, confirm our intention to build upon the synergy and expand the learning of our community with rigorous research as KC AERC embarks upon Phase II in July, We continue to appreciate the support of this project by our local stakeholders and the Greater Kansas City Community Foundation. Sincerely, Brad Curs and Mark Ehlert, Project Leads, University of Missouri Columbia Leigh Anne Taylor Knight, Executive Director, KC AERC 1

5 Table of Contents Introduction... 1 Section 1: Background Information A Enrollment and Number of Schools B Enrollment and Number of Schools, Percentage by Region School Size Percent of Students Eligible for Free or Reduced Price Lunch Percent Minority Underrepresented Minority Groups and F/RL Section 2: Pipeline to Graduation Estimated Cohort Graduation Rates A Cohort Graduation and Percent F/RL, Missouri B Cohort Graduation and Percent F/RL, Kansas A Cohort Graduation Rate and Percent Minority, Missouri B Cohort Graduation Rate and Percent Minority, Kansas Annual Dropout Rates Annual Dropout Rates, by Grade Level A Annual Dropout Rate and F/RL, Missouri B Annual Dropout Rate and F/RL, Kansas A Annual Dropout Rate and Percent Minority, Missouri B Annual Dropout Rate and Percent Minority, Kansas Dropout Rate and Unemployment Section 3: Preparation Percent of Graduates Who Took the ACT ACT Taking and Graduates in or Planning to Attend Colleges Weighted Average ACT Scores A ACT Taking and Graduates in Colleges, Missouri B ACT Taking and Graduates Planning to go to Colleges, Kansas Section 4: Transitions to College and Career A Post Graduation Placement, by Category, Missouri B Post Graduation Plans, by Category, Kansas A Graduates in College, Fall after Graduation, Missouri B Graduates Planning to Enroll in Colleges, Kansas College Going and Percent of ACT Test Takers A Graduates in Colleges and F/RL, Missouri B Graduates Planning to Attend Colleges and F/RL, Kansas A Graduates in Colleges and Percent Minority, Missouri B Graduates Planning College and Percent Minority, Kansas Graduates in Military or Employed with Unemployment Rate Post secondary Education with Unemployment Rate Section 5: Focus Group Findings Section 6: Appendices

6 Introduction The term college and career ready entered the public lexicon when the Obama administration released its blueprint for revising the Elementary and Secondary Education Act (ESEA) in March One goal of the new ESEA was to ensure that by 2020, all students who graduate from high school will be ready for college and careers. The desire to graduate students who are prepared to enter college or the workforce was echoed by Kansas City area school district administrators, principals, and teachers in meetings with faculty and staff of the Kansas City Area Education Research Consortium (KC AERC). In line with this need, KC AERC applied for and received funds from the Greater Kansas City Community Foundation to complete a study of college and career readiness among students completing high school in the Kansas City metropolitan region. This report provides characteristics and demographics of high schools in the Kansas City region, with the region being defined as Clay, Jackson and Platte Counties of Missouri and Johnson, Leavenworth, Miami and Wyandotte Counties of Kansas. It examines the college and career readiness of area students along three dimensions. First, it looks at student success along the pipeline to graduation using dropout and graduation rates. Second, it examines preparation for college and careers as measured by ACT test taking behavior. Finally, it reports the transition of high school graduates into post secondary activities using data on placements into college, the workforce, and the military and examines trends in the relationships among school level variables and post graduation outcomes for students who graduated from Kansas City metropolitan schools between 1999 and The three dimensions are examined for the region in comparison to the rest of the state of Missouri and the rest of the state of Kansas. In addition to analyzing historical data from the Missouri Department of Elementary and Secondary Education (DESE) and the Kansas Department of Education (KSDE), KC AERC also brought together key personnel from the region s schools for focus groups to better understand local districts approaches to fostering college and career readiness. The themes that emerged in these interviews can be used to supplement the historical data, introduce new ways of thinking about college and career readiness, consider practices and policies and plan future studies to assess college and career readiness in the Kansas City area. We turn first to the data before returning to findings from the focus groups and directions for future research. Guidelines for Data Interpretation. In the appendices to this report, we have documented the data sources and processing rules used to compile high school data presented 3

7 below, along with a copy of the interview protocol used for the qualitative component of this study. The publicly available data are from the Missouri Department of Elementary and Secondary Education and the Kansas Department of Education. Quality of the data are subject to what has been reported to and made available by DESE and KSDE. In instances where DESE and KSDE data definitions do not perfectly align, to make data as comparable as possible between Missouri and Kansas, adjustments were made and have been documented briefly within each table and in more detail in the Appendix. While advanced coursework (International Baccalaureate, Advanced Placement and Dual Credit) is collected by the states and can be considered a measure of college and career readiness, the data are not included in this report due to restrictions in data availability. Rationale An important goal for the education system is preparing students for success in careers and post secondary institutions. Despite Missouri high schools graduating students at higher rates than the United States average (78% to 7), Missouri graduates are less likely than the average student in United States to enter post secondary institutions immediately after high school; the national average is 64% while in Missouri, the average is 6. Retention of firsttime college freshmen is also a concern. In Kansas, only 72.7% return to their second year at four year institutions in comparison to the national average of 77.1%. 1 Furthermore, a recent study by the Consortium on Chicago School Research found that the senior year academic experiences are not preparing students to be as college and career ready as needed. 2 Project Background, Current Phase and Future Phases With this project, KC AERC continues developing and pursuing a program of research on the transition of youth through K 12 education and into post secondary activities in partnership with Kansas City metropolitan area schools and the state departments of education. This research program seeks to identify conditions and practices associated with better than average transitions rates into higher education, as well as the relative importance of each. To provide all Kansas City metropolitan youth access to high quality educational opportunities that school future challenge senior year chicago public schools 4

8 increase achievement as well as college and career readiness, schools must have information about what works and what does not. The end users (school educators to more than 300,000 metropolitan students each year) are included as integral members of the process; KC AERC is engaging educators in each step listed below. This project will establish baselines for local schools to benchmark efforts toward increasing the number of students who: demonstrate improved academic achievement; graduate from high school; attend a post secondary institution; and are on track to complete a degree and/or career credential. The presentation of this report is the culmination of Phase I as it represents the first steps of the project. 1. Determine key outcome variables that are tracked and recorded by the school districts and states related to college and career readiness that reflect students successfully transitioning from high school to adulthood. 2. Develop and disseminate profiles of the region, districts, and schools for identified outcomes. From focus groups of key stakeholders, it is clear the region concurs that Phase II of this work should include efforts to: 1. Using school level data, identify schools or districts where outcomes are systematically above (and below) expectations and conduct additional site level research to identify conditions and practices that contribute to those deviations. 2. Pursue arrangements that will allow using student level data to further examine relationships between students background characteristics, school experiences, educational programming, and other observable factors and students transitions from high school to college and careers. 3. Consider a dissemination plan to ensure consumers of the information know how to access and understand the research, including: how an electronic platform for making benchmark and progress data available to end users could be developed and made available; white papers describing particularly successful programs and policies. 5

9 4. In Phase II, practitioners will help design and disseminate materials for parents, students and other interested entities to inform what works for graduating students who are college and career ready. Phase III of our project, will be conducted after the completion of Phases I and II. 1. Begin work with schools to help them replicate potentially positive practices, address potentially negative conditions and practices, and evaluate impacts of such changes. 6

10 Section 1: Background Information In this section we present contextual information that compares important characteristics of public high schools (including charter high schools in Missouri) in the Kansas City region (Clay, Jackson and Platte counties in Missouri and Johnson, Leavenworth, Miami and Wyandotte counties in Kansas) to high schools in the rest of Missouri and Kansas. High schools in the Kansas City region are systematically different than schools outside of the region with regards to student enrollment, poverty, and diversity. Highlights of the Section 1 are presented below. High school enrollment in the Kansas City region grew from 72 to 83 thousand students between 1999 and 2013 (a 2.3% increase) while high school enrollment in the rest of Missouri and Kansas declined from 324 to 317 thousand students (a 2. decrease) (Figure 1.1A). Overall, in 2013 the Kansas City region accounted for 22.7% of all high schools students in Missouri and Kansas, up from 19.1% in 1999 (Figure 1.1B). The number of high schools in the Kansas City region grew on both sides of the state line between 1999 and 2013, from 38 to 47 in Missouri (due to increasing numbers of suburban high schools and charter high schools) and 34 to 38 in Kansas (Figure 1.1A). High schools in the Kansas City region tend to be larger than those in the rest of Missouri and Kansas. In the Kansas City region, 75% of high schools enroll 500 students or more compared to only 25% of high schools in the rest of Kansas and Missouri. Furthermore, over 45% of schools in the Kansas City region enroll over 1000 students (Figure 1.2). The number of free and reduced rate lunch program participants (F/RL) has steadily increased for the Kansas City region and the rest of Missouri and Kansas between 1999 and Within the Kansas City region, the average percentage of F/RL students is 43% in Missouri schools and 25% in Kansas schools (Figure 1.3). The percentage of students from underrepresented minority groups has steadily increased between 1999 and 2013 for all regions. In 2013, the Missouri side of the Kansas City region had 4 of students from underrepresented minority backgrounds and the Kansas side of the Kansas City region had 27% (Figure 1.4). For the Kansas City region, there is a strong positive correlation between F/RL and the percentage of underrepresented minority students. In general, high schools tend to cluster as either low F/RL and low underrepresented minority or high F/RL and high underrepresented minority serving schools (Figure 1.5). 7

11 450 High School Enrollment (in Thousands) Rest of KS KC Region KS KC Region MO Rest of MO Number of High Schools Rest of KS KC Region KS KC Region MO Rest of MO 1.1A Enrollment and Number of Schools. The figures presented above provide data on high school enrollment and the total number of high schools in the Kansas City region and the rest of Kansas and Missouri. The upper chart shows the number of students enrolled in grades 9 12 in each year of the sample. The lower chart shows the total number of high schools in the Kansas City area and the rest of the states of Kansas and Missouri. 8

12 20 High School Enrollment (by Percent) % % 83.8% 83.9% 83.7% 83.6% % % 16.2% 16.1% 16.3% 16.4% 22.6% % 26.8% 28.9% 28.8% 29.1% % % 73.2% 71.1% 71.2% 70.9% Rest of KS KC Region KS KC Region MO Rest of MO Number of High Schools (by Percent) % 91.5% 90.9% 90.3% 90.7% 90.9% 91.1% % 8.5% 9.1% 9.7% 9.3% 9.1% 8.9% 10.3% % % % % % Rest of KS KC Region KS KC Region MO Rest of MO 1.1B Enrollment and Number of Schools, Percentage by Region. In the upper chart, figure 1.1B shows the percentage of enrolled students in grades 9 12 in the Kansas City Region and the rest of the states of Kansas and Missiouri. The lower chart shows the percentage of high schools inside and outside the Kansas City region for both sides of the state line. 9

13 2013 School Size by Total Enrollment in Grades Percent of Schools KC Region Rest of States KC Region Rest of States KC Region Rest of States KC Region Rest of States < KS MO 1.2 School Size. High schools were classified into four categories based on enrollment in grades 9 12: (a) schools with less than 500 students, (b) between 500 and 999 students, (c) between , and (d) more than 2000 students. Figure 1.2 shows the percentage of schools in each of the four school size categories in the Kansas City region and the rest of the states of Kansas and Missouri in This graph simply shows that many of the large schools in both states are located in the Kansas City region, while the rural areas of both states are home to many of the smaller schools. 10

14 55% Percent of High School Students Eligible for the Free and Reduced Price Lunch Program (F/RL) 5 45% 4 35% 3 25% 2 15% Rest of KS KC Region KS KC Region MO Rest of MO 1.3 Percent of Students Eligible for Free and Reduced Lunch Program (F/RL). Figure 1.3 shows the percentage of students eligible for the Free or Reduced Lunch Program for four geographic areas: Kansas City region in Kansas; the rest of Kansas; Kansas City region in Missouri; and the rest of Missouri. While counties in the Kansas City region on the Missouri side (Clay, Platte and Jackson Counties) look similar to the rest of the state in terms of F/RL eligibility, there is a wide discrepancy between the Kansas City, KS region (Johnson, Miami, Wyandotte and Leavenworth counties) and the rest of the state of Kansas. The low FRL rate for the KCK metro region is due to the presence of large school districts serving affluent communities in Johnson County in Kansas. 11

15 Percent of Students in Underrepresented Minority Groups 45% 4 35% 3 25% 2 15% Rest of KS KC Region KS KC Region MO Rest of MO 1.4 Percentage of Students from Underrepresented Minority Groups. Figure 1.4 shows the percentage of students from underrepresented minority groups (those who are neither White nor Asian) in each year in the sample for the Kansas City region and for the rest of the states of Kansas and Missouri. The percentage of minority students in the KCKS region is slightly higher than for Kansas as a whole. The urban districts on the Missouri side are substantially more diverse than the rest of the state. 12

16 2013 School Demographics: Percent of Students in Underrepresented Minority Groups and Percent of Students Eligible for F/RL % Minority % F/RL KC Region KS KC Region MO Linear (KC Region KS) Linear (KC Region MO) 1.5 Underrepresented Minority Groups and F/RL. Figure 1.5 plots percentage of minority students against the percentage of students eligible for free or reduced price lunch in the year 2013 for each high school in Kansas City region. There is a positive relationship between F/RL percentage and percent minority; that is, schools with higher F/RL eligibility tend to be diverse. Schools in the Kansas City region tend to be either very high or very low along both dimensions. They serve low income minority students or they serve student populations that are neither low income, nor particularly diverse. Percent minority is defined as the percent of students who are neither White nor Asian for each school. 13

17 Section 2: Pipeline to Graduation In this section we present information about the pipeline to high school graduation. To become college and career ready students must first become high school graduates. Publically available information regarding progression through high school includes graduation and dropout rates. We present each of these measures with information about the racial and poverty status of the student populations served by each high school. Highlights of Section 2 are presented below. The cohort graduation rate in Missouri, defined as the percentage of students from an incoming high school class who graduate, has steadily increased in both the Kansas City region and the rest of Missouri, reaching a peak in 2012 at 88% and remaining steady in 2013 (Figure 2.1). For Kansas, between 2004 and 2013 the cohort graduation rate for the Kansas City region schools has remained steady. In contrast, high schools in the rest of Kansas improved their graduation rate between 2004 and 2010 and have remained steady through 2013 (Figure 2.1). There is a negative relationship between the percentage of students in Kansas City region high schools who are F/RL eligible and cohort graduation rates, with a stronger negative correlation in Missouri schools (Figures 2.2A and 2.2B). For both Missouri and Kansas high schools in the Kansas City region, there is a negative relationship between the percentage of students from underrepresented minority backgrounds and cohort graduation rates (Figures 2.3A and 2.3B). The annual dropout rate, defined as the percentage of students who dropout of high school in any given year, declined between 1999 and 2004 for schools in both Missouri and Kansas. Since 2004, the dropout rate has continued to slowly decline in Missouri while it remained steady in Kansas. Overall, the annual dropout rate is comparable between high schools in the Kansas City region and the rest of Missouri and Kansas (Figure 2.4). On the Missouri side of the Kansas City region, there is a positive relationship between the percentage of students eligible for F/RL and annual dropout rates (Figure 2.6A) while there is little to no relationship in Kansas (Figure 2.6B). Similarly, the same patterns hold for the relationship between the percentage of students from underrepresented minority backgrounds and annual dropout rates (Figures 2.7A and 2.7B). For both Missouri and Kansas schools in the Kansas City region, there is a negative relationship between the local unemployment rate and the annual dropout rate (Figure 2.8). 14

18 94% Estimated Cohort Graduation Rate (Missouri) 92% 9 88% 86% 84% 82% KC Region MO Rest of MO 94% Estimated Cohort Graduation Rate (Kansas) 92% 9 88% 86% 84% 82% KC Region KS Rest of KS 2.1 Estimated Cohort Graduation Rates. Figure 2.1 shows an estimated cohort graduation rate, defined as the percent of high school students who graduated in a certain year among those who started the 9th grade at the same time. The upper chart compares the Kansas City, MO region to the rest of Missouri and the lower chart compares the Kansas City, KS region to the rest of Kansas. The estimated graduation rate is calculated using the number of high school graduates in a certain year divided by graduates in that year plus the number of 9 12 grade cohort dropouts. Cohort graduation rates for Kansas are approximations based on calculations from publically available data in which counts less than ten were suppressed by KSDE due to data confidentiality policy. 15

19 2013 Estimated Cohort Graduation Rate by Percent of Students Eligible for F/RL, Missouri Graduation Rate % F/RL KC Region MO Linear (KC Region MO) 2.2A Cohort Graduation Rate and Percent Eligible for F/RL, Missouri. Figure 2.2A plots the cohort graduation rate against the percentage of students eligible for free or reduced price lunch in 2013 for each high school in the Kansas City region (Missouri side). The building level cohort graduation rate is estimated using the number of high school graduates in a certain year divided by graduates in that year plus the number of 9 12 grade cohort dropouts. 16

20 2013 Estimated Cohort Graduation Rate by Percent of Students Eligible for F/RL, Kansas Graduation Rate % F/RL KC Region KS Linear (KC Region KS) 2.2B Cohort Graduation Rate and Percent Eligible for F/RL, Kansas. Figure 2.2B plots the cohort graduation rate against the percentage of students eligible for free or reduced price lunch in 2013 for each high school in the Kansas City region (Kansas side). The building level cohort graduation rate is estimated using the number of high school graduates in a certain year divided by graduates in that year plus the number of 9 12 grade cohort dropouts. Rates for Kansas are approximations based on calculations from publically available data in which counts less than ten were suppressed by KSDE due to their data confidentiality policy. 17

21 2013 Estimated Cohort Graduation Rate by Percent of Students from Underrepresented Minority Groups 2013, Missouri Graduation Rate % Minority KC Region MO Linear (KC Region MO) 2.3A Cohort Graduation Rate and Percent Minority, Missouri. Figure 2.3A plots the cohort graduation rate against the percentage of students from underrepresented minority groups (non white, non Asian) in 2013 for each high school in the Kansas City region (Missouri side). Again, the cohort graduation rate for Missouri is estimated using the number of high school graduates in a certain year divided by graduates in that year plus the number of 9 12 grade cohort dropouts. 18

22 2013 Estimated Cohort Graduation Rate by Percent of Students from Underrepresented Minority Groups 2013, Kansas Graduation Rate % Minority KC Region KS Linear (KC Region KS) 2.3B Cohort Graduation Rate and Percent Minority, Kansas. Figure 2.3B plots the cohort graduation rate against the percentage of students from underrepresented minority groups (non white, non Asian) in 2013 for each high school in the Kansas City region (Kansas side). Again, the cohort graduation rate for Missouri is estimated using the number of high school graduates in a certain year divided by graduates in that year plus the number of 9 12 grade cohort dropouts. Cohort graduation rates for Kansas are approximations based on calculations from publically available data in which counts less than ten were suppressed by KSDE due to their data confidentiality policy. 19

23 6% Annual Dropout Rate (Missouri) 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% KC Region MO Rest of MO 6% Annual Dropout Rate (Kansas) 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% KC Region KS Rest of KS 2.4 Annual Dropout Rates. In Figure 2.4, the upper chart compares the annual drop out rate in the Kansas City, MO region to the rest of Missouri, while the lower chart compares Kansas City, KS region to the rest of Kansas. Annual dropout rate is defined as the percentage of students who dropped out in grades 9 12 in each year for the four locations. Annual dropout rates for Kansas are approximations based on calculations from publically available data in which counts less than ten were suppressed by KSDE due to their data confidentiality policy. 20

24 Annual Dropout Rate in KCMO Region 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% th Grade 10th Grade 11th Grade 12th Grade Annual Dropout Rate in KCKS Region 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% th Grade 10th Grade 11th Grade 12th Grade 2.5 Annual Dropout Rates, by Grade Level, Kansas City Region. Figure 2.5 shows changes in the annual drop out rate by grade level, on average, for all schools in the Kansas City region for 1999, 2004, and The upper chart presents data for Missouri and the lower chart presents data for Kansas. Annual dropout rates for Kansas are approximations based on calculations from publically available data in which counts less than ten were suppressed by KSDE due to their data confidentiality policy. 21

25 35% 2013 Annual Dropout Rate by Percent of Students Eligible for F/RL, Missouri 3 25% Dropout Rate 2 15% 1 5% F/RL KC Region MO Linear (KC Region MO) 2.6A Annual Dropout Rate and Percentage of Students Eligible for F/RL, Missouri. Figure 2.6A plots the annual dropout rate against the percentage of students eligible for free or reduced price lunch in 2013 for each high school in the Kansas City region (Missouri side). The annual dropout rate is defined as the percentage of students who dropped out in grades 9 12 in each individual school in

26 35% 2013 Annual Dropout Rate by Percent of Students Eligible for F/RL, Kansas 3 25% Dropout Rate 2 15% 1 5% F/RL KC Region KS Linear (KC Region KS) 2.6B Annual Dropout Rate and Percentage of Students Eligible for F/RL, Kansas. Figure 2.6B plots the annual dropout rate against the percentage of students eligible for free or reduced price lunch in 2013 for each high school in the Kansas City region (Kansas side). The annual dropout rate is defined as the percentage of students who dropped out in grades 9 12 in each individual school in Annual dropout rates for Kansas are approximations based on calculations from publically available data in which counts less than ten were suppressed by KSDE due to their data confidentiality policy. 23

27 35% 2013 Annual Dropout Rate by Percent of Students from Underrepresented Minority Groups, Missouri 3 25% Dropout Rate 2 15% 1 5% % Minority KC Region MO Linear (KC Region MO) 2.7A Annual Dropout Rate and Percentage of Minority Students, Missouri. Figure 2.7A plots the annual dropout rate against the percentage of students from underrepresented minority groups (defined as not white or Asian) for each high school in the Kansas City region (Missouri side). The dropout rate is defined as the percentage of students who dropped out in grades 9 12 in each individual school in

28 35% 2013 Annual Dropout Rate by Percent of Students from Underrepresented Minority Groups, Kansas 3 25% Dropout Rate 2 15% 1 5% % Minority KC Region KS Linear (KC Region KS) 2.7B Annual Dropout Rate and Percentage of Minority Students, Kansas. Figure 2.7B plots the annual dropout rate against the percentage of students from underrepresented minority groups (defined as not white or Asian) for each high school in the Kansas City region (Kansas side). The dropout rate is defined as the percentage of students who dropped out in grades 9 12 in each individual school in Annual dropout rates for Kansas are approximations based on calculations from publically available data in which counts less than ten were suppressed by KSDE due to their data confidentiality policy. 25

29 12% Annual Dropout Rate and Unemployment in Kansas City Region (Missouri Side) Dropouts 8% 6% 4% 2% Unemployment Annual Dropout Rate Grade 9 12 Unemployment Rate 12% Annual Dropout Rate and Unemployment in Kansas City Region (Kansas Side) Dropouts 8% 6% 4% Unemployment 2% Annual Dropout Rate Grade 9 12 Unemployment Rate 2.8 Dropout Rate and Unemployment. Figures 2.8 shows the unemployment rate and the dropout rate in the Kansas City region for 1999, 2004, and The dropout rate is defined as the percentage of students who dropped out in grades 9 12 in each year. Unemployment rate is the percentage of people who are unemployed among those in the workforce. Data sources: DESE, KSDE, and Bureau of Labor Statistics. Annual dropout rates for Kansas are approximations based on calculations from publically available data in which counts less than ten were suppressed by KSDE due to their data confidentiality policy. 26

30 Section 3: Preparation for College Section 3 presents information regarding college preparation. Specifically, ACT test taking behaviors are presented for Kansas City region high schools. Highlights of Section 3 are presented below. The percentage of high school graduates who took the ACT steadily increased in Missouri between 1999 and For Missouri high schools in the Kansas City region, this percentage grew from 57% to 72% during this period (Figure 3.1). The percentage of high school graduates taking the ACT in Kansas has remained steady between 2009 and 2013, at 67% of graduates in high schools in the Kansas City region and 62% in the rest of Kansas (Figure 3.1). Average ACT scores have remained steady for all regions and states between 1999 and 2013 (Figure 3.3). 27

31 75% Percent of Graduates Who Took the ACT (Missouri) 7 65% 6 55% KC Region MO Rest of MO 75% Percent of Graduates Who Took the ACT (Kansas) 7 65% 6 55% KC Region KS Rest of KS 3.1 Percent of Graduates Who Took the ACT. In Figure 3.1, the upper chart compares the percentage of graduates in the Kansas City, Missouri region who took the ACT to graduates in the rest of the state of Missouri. The lower chart compares the percentage of graduates in the Kansas City, KS region who took the ACT to graduates in the rest of the state of Kansas. 28

32 8 Percent of Graduates Who Took ACT and Percent in 2 Year or 4 Year Colleges (Missouri) 75% 7 65% 6 55% ACT (KC Region MO) In College (KC Region MO) 8 Percent of Graduates Who Took ACT and Percent Planning to Attend 2 Year or 4 Year Colleges (Kansas) 75% 7 65% 6 55% ACT (KC Region KS) In College (KC Region KS) 3.2 ACT Taking and Percentage of Graduates in or Planning to Attend 2 or 4 year Colleges. Figure 3.2 shows the percentage of graduates who took the ACT alongside the percentage of graduates in, or planning to attend, either 2 year or 4 year colleges. The percentage of Missouri graduates in a 4 year or 2 year college is based on data collected within 180 days post graduation. For Kansas, the chart reports the percentage of graduates who planned to attend a 4 year or 2 year college, based on student self report prior to graduation. 29

33 25 Weighted Average ACT Score Rest of KS KC Region KS KC Region MO Rest of MO 3.3 Weighted Average ACT Scores. Figure 3.3 shows the weighted average ACT score for students in the Kansas City region and the rest of the states of Kansas and Missouri for 1999, 2004, and Note: Schools' average scores were weighted by number of students who took the test in order to calculate the correct average ACT score for each of the four regions. Again, average scores for the Kansas City region on the Kansas side are inflated by the large number of affluent and high performing schools in Johnson County. 30

34 2013 Percent of Graduates Taking ACT and Percent of Graduates in a 2 Year or 4 Year College, Missouri % in College % ACT Takers KC Region MO Linear (KC Region MO) 3.4A ACT Taking and Percentage of Graduates in 2 or 4 year Colleges. Figure 3.4A plots the percentage of graduates taking the ACT for each school in the Kansas City, Missouri region against the percentage of students enrolling in 2 year or 4 year colleges in As with 3.2, the percentage of Missouri graduates in a 4 year or 2 year college is based on data collected within 180 days post graduation. 31

35 Percent of Graduates Taking ACT and Percent of Graduates Planning to Attend a 2 Year or 4 Year College, Kansas 10 8 % in College % ACT Takers KC Region KS Linear (KC Region KS) 3.4B ACT Taking and Percent of Graduates Planning to Attend 2 or 4 year Colleges. Figure 3.4B plots the percentage of graduates taking the ACT for each school in the Kansas City, Kansas region against the percentage of students planning to enroll in 2 year or 4 year colleges in Kansas data on student status 180 days post graduation was not available; thus, the plot reports the percentage of graduates who planned to attend a 4 year or 2 year college based on student self report prior to graduation. 32

36 Section 4: Transitions to College and Career Section 4 presents information regarding the post high school transitions for high school graduates. In Missouri, this is measured using graduate follow up results collected approximately 180 days after high school graduation. In Kansas, this is measured as stated plans of seniors at the time of graduation. Hence, the transitions data are not directly comparable between Missouri and Kansas. Highlights of Section 4 include: In Missouri, for both the Kansas City region and rest of state, between 1999 and 2013 the postsecondary enrollment rate of recent high school graduates (measured 180 days after graduation) has remained steady at around 7 (Figures 4.1A and 4.2A). In Kansas, for both Kansas City region and the rest of state, in 2013 around 7 of high school graduates indicated they planned to enter postsecondary education at the time of their graduation (Figure 4.1B and 4.2B). There is a negative relationship between the percentage of students in Kansas City region high schools who are F/RL eligible and the percentage who are enrolled in (MO), or plan to enroll in (KS), 2 or 4 year colleges (Figures 4.4A and 4.4B). There is a negative relationship between the percentage of students in Kansas City region high schools who are from underrepresented minority backgrounds and the percentage who are enrolled in (MO), or plan to enroll in (KS), 2 or 4 year college (Figures 4.4A and 4.4B). For both Missouri and Kansas schools in the Kansas City region, there is a negative relationship between the local unemployment rate and students who after 180 days are (MO), or plan to be (KS), employed or in the military (Figure 4.6). In Missouri, as local unemployment rates increased, enrollment in postsecondary education increased (Figure 4.7). Alternatively, in Kansas as local unemployment rates increased, plans for enrollment in postsecondary education declined (Figure 4.7). 33

37 Post Graduation Placement by Category (Missouri) KC Region MO KC Region MO KC Region MO KC Region MO KC Region MO Year Colleges 2 Year Colleges Other PS Education Military Employed Other Status Unknown Status 4.1A Post Graduation Placement, by Category, Missouri. Figure 4.1A shows the placement of Missouri graduates into post secondary activities for For Missouri, graduate placement information is based on data collected within 180 days post graduation. The "Other" category includes a small number of students who were parenting or in categories other than college, other post secondary education, military or employment. Information on students in the "Unknown" category was not available within 180 days after graduation. The chart illustrates that post graduation outcomes have been fairly stable over the last several years, but that college enrollment is slightly higher in the KCMO region than in the rest of Missouri. 34

38 Post Graduaton Plans, by Category (Kansas) KC Region KS KC Region KS KC Region KS KC Region KS KC Region KS Year Colleges 2 Year Colleges Other PS Education Military Employed Other Status Unknown Status 4.1B Post Graduation Plans, by Category, Kansas. Figure 4.1B shows Kansas graduates' post secondary plans for For Kansas, graduate placement information is based on a survey asking students about their plans after graduation, rather than data on actual student outcomes, and for this reason it cannot be compared with placement measures available for schools in Missouri (4.1A). In all years, it appears that more students in the rest of the state of Kansas were planning to attend some form of post secondary institution. However, because plan data are self reported, with as much as 2 or 3 reporting "unknown" or "other" post graduation plans, it is difficult to assess if and how the Kansas City region differs from the rest of Kansas. 35

39 85% Percent of Graduates MO: 180 in day followup Any Postsecondary data Education KS: Data Based High School Students Plan After Graduation the Fall after Graduation (Missouri) 8 75% 7 65% 6 55% KC Region MO Rest of MO 4.2A Percent of Graduates in Post Secondary Education, Fall after Graduation, Missouri. Figure 4.2A shows the percentage of high school graduates who enrolled in any postsecondary education including 4 year colleges, 2 year colleges, and other postsecondary institutions, within 180 days after graduation. Postsecondary enrollment patterns for the Kansas City, MO region are shown alongside trends for the rest of the state of Missouri. 36

40 85% Percent of Graduates Planning to Be in Any Postsecondary MO: 180 day followup data KS: Data Based on High School Students Plan After Graduation Education the Fall after Graduation (Kansas) 8 75% 7 65% 6 55% KC Region KS Rest of KS 4.2B Percent of Graduates Planning to Enroll in Post Secondary Education, Kansas. Figure 4.2B shows the percentage of high school seniors who planned to enroll in any postsecondary education, including 4 year colleges, 2 year colleges, or other postsecondary institutions, by the fall after graduation. The Kansas City, KS region is compared with trends for the rest of the state of Kansas. 37

41 8 Percent of Graduates in Colleges and Percent of ACT Takers, KCMO Region College ACT Takers Year College 2 Year College Percent of Graduates Planning to Enroll in Colleges and Percent of ACT Takers, KCKS Region College ACT Takers Year College 2 Year College 4.3 Graduates in Colleges or Planning to Attend Colleges and Percent of ACT Test Takers. Figure 4.3 presents available data on the post secondary outcomes or plans of students in the Kansas City region, along with the percentage who took the ACT. For Missouri, the percentage of high school graduates enrolled in 2 year or 4 year colleges is based on data collected on students' status within 180 days of graduation. For Kansas, the chart reports students' plans to attend college. Kansas data are based on a survey of high school seniors. 38

42 Percent of Graduates in 2 Year or 4 Year Colleges and Percent of Students Eligible for F/RL, Missouri % in College % F/RL KC Region MO Linear (KC Region MO) 4.4A Graduates in Colleges and Percent Eligible for F/RL, Missouri. Figure 4.4A plots college going rates against percentage of students eligible for free or reduced price lunch for each high school in the Kansas City, MO region in The trendline shows the relationships between family income and college going rates; students from low income families are less likely to attend college. (Note: Data from the Kansas and Missouri sides of the state line are not comparable. Missouri data points use the percent of students who actually enrolled in a 4 year or 2 year college within 180 days of graduation. Kansas data points in 4.4B represent the percentage of students self reporting their intention to enroll in a 4 year or 2 year college in the fall after graduation). 39

43 Percent of Graduates Planning to Attend 2 Year or 4 Year Colleges and Percent of Students Eligible for F/RL, Kansas % in College % F/RL KC Region KS Linear (KC Region KS) 4.4B Graduates Planning to Attend Colleges and Percent Eligible for F/RL, Kansas. Figure 4.4B plots college going plans against percentage of students eligible for free or reduced price lunch for each high school in the Kansas City, KS region in The trendline shows the relationships between family income and college going rates; students from low income families are less likely to attend college. While Missouri data points in 4.4A use the percent of students who actually enrolled in a 4 year or 2 year college within 180 days of graduation, Kansas data points represent students' self reported plans to enroll in a 4 year or 2 year college in the fall after graduation. We know that a significant number of students who commit to a given college in the spring of their senior year do not attend in the fall. Therefore, the college going estimates for the Kansas side are likely to be inflated. 40

44 2013 Percent of Graduates in 2 Year or 4 Year Colleges and Percent of Students from Underrepresented Minority Groups, MO % in College % Minority KC Region MO Linear (KC Region MO) 4.5A Graduates in Colleges and Percent Minority Students, Missouri. Figure 4.5A plots college going rates against percentage of students from under represented minority groups (non white, non Asian) for each high school in the Kansas City, MO region in Again, data from the Kansas and Missouri sides of the state line are not comparable. Missouri data points use the percent of students who actually enrolled in a 4 year or 2 year college within 180 days of graduation. Kansas data points in 4.5B represent the percentage of students self reporting their intention to enroll in a 4 year or 2 year college in the fall after graduation. 41

45 Percent of Graduates Planning to Attend 2 Year or 4 Year Colleges and Percent of Students from Underrepresented Minority Groups, KS % in College % Minority KC Region KS Linear (KC Region KS) 4.5B Graduates Planning to Attend Colleges and Percent Minority Students, Kansas. Figure 4.5B plots college going plans against percentage of students from under represented minority groups (non white, non Asian) for each high school in the Kansas City, KS region in Again, data from the Kansas and Missouri sides of the state line are not comparable. Missouri data points in 4.5A reflect actual enrollment and Kansas data points represent the students' plans, based on a survey during their senior year. Thus, Kansas data do not reflect the effects of "summer melt" and are likely to skew high. 42

46 3 Graduates in Military or Employed with Unemployment Rate (KCMO Region) 1 In Military/Employed 25% 2 15% 1 8% 6% 4% Unemployment 5% 2% In Military or Employment KC Region MO Unemployment 3 Graduates Planning to Enter Military or Employment with Unemployment Rate (KCKS Region) 1 In Military/Employed 25% 2 15% 1 8% 6% 4% Unemployment 5% 2% With Plan for Military or Employment KC Region KS Unemployment 4.6 Graduates in Military or Employed with Unemployment Rate. Figure 4.6 (upper) shows the unemployment rate and the placement of graduates into the military or employment from schools in the Kansas City, MO region. Percentage of high school graduates who joined the military or entered employment is based on data collected on students' status within 180 days after graduation. Figure 4.6 (lower) reports data for Kansas, however, the percentage of high school graduates who joined the military or entered employment is based on students' selfreported plans prior to high school graduation. 43