EM&V: Energy Efficiency Program Evaluation, Measurement, & Verification Jonathon Jackson

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1 EM&V: Energy Efficiency Program Evaluation, Measurement, & Verification Jonathon Jackson

2 Agenda Why are Energy Efficiency Programs Evaluated? What does an Evaluation Consist of? How does the Evaluation affect the Energy Efficiency Programs? What can a customer expect from Evaluation?

3 Why

4 Ameren Illinois Energy Efficiency Programs Residential Programs Business Programs Lighting REEP Appliance Recycling Standard Custom Retro-Commissioning Multifamily Home Energy Performance HVAC Moderate Income Home Energy Reports Energy Star New Homes

5 Public Utilities Act Section & (a) It is the policy of the State that electric utilities are required to use cost-effective energy efficiency and demand-response measures to reduce delivery load. Requiring investment in cost-effective energy efficiency and demand-response measures will reduce direct and indirect costs to consumers by decreasing environmental impacts and by avoiding or delaying the need for new generation, transmission, and distribution infrastructure. (a) It is the policy of the State that natural gas utilities and the Department of Commerce and Economic Opportunity are required to use cost-effective energy efficiency to reduce direct and indirect costs to consumers.

6 Utility Goals (b) Electric utilities shall implement cost-effective energy efficiency measures to meet the following incremental annual energy savings goals: (1) 0.2% of energy delivered in the year commencing June 1, 2008; (2) 0.4% of energy delivered in the year commencing June 1, 2009; (3) 0.6% of energy delivered in the year commencing June 1, 2010; (4) 0.8% of energy delivered in the year commencing June 1, 2011; (5) 1% of energy delivered in the year commencing June 1, 2012; (6) 1.4% of energy delivered in the year commencing June 1, 2013; (7) 1.8% of energy delivered in the year commencing June 1, 2014; and (8) 2% of energy delivered in the year commencing June 1, 2015 and each year thereafter.

7 Net Program Impacts (f)... (7) Provide for an annual independent evaluation of the performance of the cost-effectiveness of the utility's portfolio of measures and the Department's portfolio of measures, as well as a full review of the 3-year results of the broader net program impacts and, to the extent practical, for adjustment of the measures on a going-forward basis as a result of the evaluations. The resources dedicated to evaluation shall not exceed 3% of portfolio resources in any given year.

8 Ameren Illinois Plan 2 Goals Energy Efficiency Annual MWH Savings Annual MW Savings Annual Therm Savings PY4 PY5 PY6 PY4 PY5 PY6 PY4 PY5 PY6 RES-Lighting 82,485 61,974 42, RES-Efficient Products 11,079 11,999 13, , , ,133 RES-HVAC 13,448 14,187 15, ,800 1,147,316 1,480,704 RES-Appliance Recycling 19,889 20,070 16, RES- Home Energy Performance 2,593 2,665 2, , , ,034 RES-New Construction ,831 14,268 15,449 RES-Multi-family 4,874 5,217 5, , , ,078 RES-Home Energy Reports 21,705 21,705 21, , , ,517 RES-Moderate Income 1,732 1,774 1, ,850 66,795 68,799 RES-Voltage Optimization * RESIDENTIAL PORTFOLIO TOTAL 158, , , ,311,593 2,751,267 3,201,714 BUS-Standard 47,815 40,648 37, ,145,345 1,306,813 1,429,883 BUS-Custom 55,620 54,490 50, , , ,281 BUS-RCx 3,309 3,196 3, ,654 5,002 4,651 BUS-New Construction 8,194 7,123 6, ,483 50,035 47,131 BUSINESS PORTFOLIO TOTAL 114, ,458 97, ,391,525 1,572,768 1,704,945

9 What

10 Evaluation is the Assessment of Energy Efficiency Program Performance Ameren Illinois contracts with an independent evaluator to perform the evaluation of our programs annually. Evaluations are comprised of two main components: Process & Impact Ameren Illinois is required to have a minimum of one Process and Impact evaluation per program every 3 years.

11 Process Process evaluation provides information on how the program is working in the market and is used to inform adjustments in program design and implementation strategy. Examples of questions addressed in the Process Evaluation. i. What are the participant characteristics? How many HVAC units were installed? At what SEER levels? What percent was early-replacement vs. replace on burnout? Have the ratios changed since last year? ii. Has the program as implemented changed compared to previous year? If so, how, why, and was this an advantageous change? iii. How satisfied are customers with the program? Are they likely to recommend the program to friends or family? Are customers aware of other AIC programs?

12 Impact Impact Evaluations measure quantitative results(usually energy savings) and are used to assess program performance against goals. Examples of goals set forth in the Impact Evaluation. i. Conduct onsite verification with a subsample of the impact sample. 1. Verify measures are installed and operating. Possibly meter equipment to verify usage and savings. ii. Conduct research to update the NTGR (Net to Gross Ratio)

13 Impact Flow Chart

14 Evaluation Reports Ameren Illinois Evaluations are public documents. Two ways you can access the documents. 1. They are publicly available on the Illinois Commerce Commissions e-docket. You will need the savings docket number to access. 2. All the utilities and interested parties participate in a group called the Stakeholders Advisory Group. They are available for download on their website at

15 Programs

16 Evaluation Consultants Program Attribution Program attribution refers to energy impacts that can confidently be attributed to program efforts A net-to-gross factor that reflects program attribution is applied to gross program energy savings to get net energy savings

17 Net To Gross (NTG or NTGR) NTGR = 1 freeridership + participant spillover + nonparticipant spillover

18 Free Riders Free rider is an individual that would have installed an energy efficiency measure without any program incentive but receives a financial incentive or rebate anyway.

19 What is Spillover? Spillover is when an individual chooses to implement additional energy efficiency measures due to the influence of the program without an incentive or rebate.

20 Different Types of Spillover

21 Estimating NTG Not always as easy as for this respondent Particularly difficult for Upstream Programs

22 How to Measure NTG

23 Goal Achievement When verifying the utilities have achieved the state mandated goals, the commerce commission looks at our NET results from our annual evaluations for each program. Measure Ex Ante Gross Savings (MWh) Realized Gross Savings (MWh) Realization Rate PY3 NTG Ratio Net Energy Savings (MWh) Net Demand Savings (kw) Recycled Refrigerator 8,676 7,847 90% , Recycled Freezer 2,471 2,328 94% , Recycled Room AC % Total - PY3 11,160 10,188 91% ,121 1,015

24 Evaluation is used to determine measure level savings The Illinois Utilities have collaborated to create the Illinois Statewide Technical Reference Manual (TRM) It s a 675 page document that standardizes the calculations of savings for energy efficiency measures The TRM goes through an annual update procedure It can be located on the Illinois Stakeholders Advisory Group Website

25 TRM Algorithm for an Energy Star Compact Flourescent Lamp ELECTRIC ENERGY SAVINGS kwh = ((WattsBase - WattsEE) / 1000) * ISR * Hours * WHFe For example, for a 14W CFL (60W standard incandescent and 43W EISA qualified incandescent/halogen) purchased in ΔkWH 1st year installs = ((43-14) / 1000) * * 1000 * 1.06 = 22.2 kwh (GROSS)

26 ISR Program Weighted Average 1 st year In Service Rate (ISR) 2 nd year Installations 3 rd year Installations Final Lifetime In Service Rate Retail (Time of Sale) or Efficiency Kits 72.2% 13.9% 11.9% 98.0% Direct Install 96.9% 1 st year in service rate is based upon review of PY3-5 evaluations from ComEd and PY5 for Ameren (see IL RES Lighting ISR.xls for more information. The average first year ISR for each utility was calculated weighted by the number of bulbs in each year s survey. This was then weighted by annual sales to give a statewide assumption.

27 Evaluation Drives the Program Design Examples Applications Measures Offered Incentives Marketing Channels

28 Evaluation Drives the Program Design The results of the annual evaluations are used in the annual Statewide TRM update procedure These variables drive the savings that can be claimed from each measure The energy efficiency programs are on a fixed budget and must achieve program targets while balancing available budgets.

29 Customer

30 Participation in Evaluation Customers and Program Allies will be called upon to participate in evaluation through a variety of methods. I. Phone Surveys II. III. IV. Onsite Verification Metering Studies Customer Intercepts Keep in mind these are in addition to internal QA/QC that we may be performing

31 Evaluation Activity Typically the outside evaluators perform their activities after the program year is over. That is not always the case as we do perform some surveying activities during the program year and certain metering studies require being in the field during specific times of the year. Ex Heating Season or Cooling Season for metering HVAC equip. Certain residential programs tend to have a consistent participation and allow for early surveying. C&I customers have varied project sizes which makes it more difficult to do early surveying since sampling is based on savings contributions.

32 Customer Surveys Customers will be contacted for both Process and Impact Surveys. The majority of the time evaluators will try to combine both. We try to be cognizant of our participants time. Certain surveying activities will provide an incentive for participating such as a gift card. The surveys will be designed to answer the questions that are posed in the workplan. See examples on Process and Impact slides.

33 Example Questions Are you aware of the fact that federal standards for lighting equipment recently changed so that there are now restrictions on the production of T12 lamps for sale in the U.S? (Process) What are lighting contractors and suppliers telling you about these changes to federal standards? (Process) When did you first learn about Ameren Illinois ActOnEnergyProgram? Was it BEFORE or AFTER you first began to THINK about implementing this measure? (Impact) Were there any other factors we haven't discussed that were influential in your decision to install this MEASURE? (Impact)

34 Resources Website: ActOnEnergy.com/Business Phone: Fax:

35 Post-Training Quiz - What did you learn about energy efficiency program evaluation, measurement, & verification? 1. Which of the following best defines Net To Gross (NTGR)? 2. What is the Statewide Technical Reference Manual? 3. Which of the following can customers and Program Allies expect from an evaluation?

36 Questions?

37 ActonEnergy.com/Symposium Attend and receive a 15% bonus coupon potentially worth thousands in additional incentive dollars.

38

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