EEA Grants Norway Grants Risk management. Alex Stimpson and Trine Eriksen Results and Evaluation, FMO Vilnius 11 December 2013

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1 EEA Grants Norway Grants Risk management Alex Stimpson and Trine Eriksen Results and Evaluation, FMO Vilnius 11 December 2013

2 What are we aiming for? Managing Risk for Results Reducing economic and social disparities Strengthening bilateral relations Effective and efficient implementation, zero tolerance for corruption.

3 Risk management Some conclusions from the Risk Seminar in Oslo Managing Risk for Results & Fighting Corruption Oslo, September, 2013 Should help achieve the results of the Grants, not hinder it Is a joint endeavour between donors and beneficiary countries Requires openness Is a continuous process

4 Risk & risk management Risks are an event or circumstance that may affect the achievement of expected results Risk management A continuous, proactive and systematic process of identifying, assessing and managing risk in line with the accepted risk levels to provide reasonable assurance as to achieving the expected results FMO s risk management strategy: ment+strategy.pdf The strategy builds on the principle that sound risk management is essential to effectively achieve the expected results of the Grants. 4

5 Risk management levels Risks at national level, programme level and project levels may affect achievement of programme results Assign roles at each level Total Grants Country Programme Projects A Corruption risk assessment is being applied by TI to each programme to help identify corruption risks All actors ensure relevant risks are identified, analysed, and that actions are taken (if possible) to reduce the likelihood and consequence of negative incidents PO must actively take leadership at programme and for project levels 5

6 Programme Operators and risk All levels have a responsibility to identify and mitigate risk. The POs: a. Identify and assess the relevant risk factors that may affect the achievement of the expected outcomes, and develop a risk mitigation plan (Article 5.2) b. Report in the Annual Programme Report on any changes to risk assessment and the risk mitigation plan (Article 5.11 and section 5.9 of the Programme Operator s Manual) c. Ensure the governance principles set out in Article 1.6 are adhered to, in particular through the application of measures to avoid conflict of interest (Article 6.6) d. Conduct annual monitoring of a sample of projects selected based on risk assessment and random samples (Article 4.7) 6

7 Identify risks at all levels Risk identification is done in all phases of a programme, but early identification gives the best effect. Normally requires several contributors. Risks are expressed as negative statements in relation to achievement of the desired result. 7

8

9 How do we assess risks? We identify risks in several categories that may have a negative effect on the programme outcomes and subsequently the overall objectives Cohesion objective Policy and politics Fundamental rights and values (horizontal concerns) Programme strategy not aligned Bilateral objective Risks to not strengthening bilateral relations Operational issues Governance: Institutional, management, transparency and accountability Corruption and procurement issues Financial issues

10 Cohesion objective Risks related to policy and politics Influence of policy, legislation, national strategies (or lack of) on programme implementation. Examples of risks No national framework for the sector and for policy issues relevant to the programme The programme/project is inconsistent with the policy and legal framework There is little support (including co-financing) from relevant political, private and local stakeholders 10

11 Cohesion objective Risks related to fundamental rights and values (horizontal concerns) Commitment to fundamental rights and particularly relevant for programmes that target improvements for vulnerable groups, including Roma. Examples of risks Low commitment and adherence to fundamental rights and values Traditions and attitudes hinder participation and empowerment of minorities and social inclusion 11

12 Cohesion objective Risks related to programme strategy/processes/technology How programme strategy, processes put in place or technological issues may affect achieving the programme s outcome(s). Examples of risks Strategy inconsistent with expected outcomes (indicators) e.g. calls result in an insufficient number / quality of projects Insufficient time available for implementation Lack of ownership concerning the technical solution(s) used The investments made are not sustainable 12

13 Bilateral objective Risks related to the bilateral objective Strategies put in place to reach the bilateral objective, such as the use of the bilateral funds as well as the role, influence and contribution of Donor State entities. Examples of risks The partner s role is unclear and/or understood differently in the donor and beneficiary states Demand for partner input by beneficiary states far exceeds supply There is no clear vision for using the bilateral fund 13

14 Operational issues Risks related to governance: institutional and management capacity, transparency and accountability Ability to implement programme/projects and the related governance framework. Examples of risks Lack of capacity and competence Delayed or ineffective decision-making due to insufficient/inappropriate delegation of authorities Lack of supportive legal framework conditions Insufficient control systems in place Poor relations with implementing partners, unclear responsibilities 14

15 Operational issues Risks related to corruption / procurement issues Likelihood and effect of corruption and procurement issues occurring. Examples of risks Bias, fabrication, or other actions that favour a particular result Conflict of interest, bribery, political corruption, nepotism and/or collusion Inducement/reward for award/execution of contracts, bribery, clientelism, kickbacks and/or revolving doors 15

16 Operational issues Risks related to financial, fiduciary issues Risk that procedures hinder the programme outcome e.g. poorly defined procedures, excessive controls, insufficient financial controls leading to irregularities. Examples of risks Financial flows to projects insufficient for cash-flow / absorption Procedures / experience insufficient to deter irregularities Disproportionate procedures deter PPs from project objective 16

17 Conducting the risk assessment Template for guidance Programme # Type of objective Cohesion (Programme) outcomes: Description of risk Likelihood Consequence Mitigation planned/done Bilateral outcome(s): Operational issues: [1] The risks should be categorised in one of 3 ways, depending on whether it poses a risk to the cohesion objective, the bilateral objective, or is more of an operational issue. [2] Assess the likelihood of each risk occurring where 4 = Almost certain (75 99% likelihood); 3 = Likely (50 74%); 2 = Possible (25 49%); 1 = Unlikely (1 24%) [3] Assess the consequence(s) in the event that the outcomes and/or crucial operations are not delivered, where 4 = severe; 3 = major; 2 = moderate; 1 = minor; n/a = not relevant or insignificant.

18 Assess and prioritise risks A risk analysis contains an assessment of the risks in terms of Probability or likelihood of the occurence of the risks Consequences if the event occurs As the risk assessment is a forward-looking exercise, the assessment should take into account the whole agreement period - and beyond - to ensure sustainability of the results 18

19 Scoring Assess the likelihood and impact of individual risks and assign a risk rating Likelihood Score Descriptor Indicative frequency 4 Almost certain 75 99% 3 Likely 50 74% 2 Possible 25 49% 1 Unlikely 1 24% Consequence Can it make the programme fail? Score Descriptor 4 severe 3 major 2 moderate 1 minor

20 How do we assess risks? Accompany this with a narrative assessment highlighting the major risks Identify mitigating actions This is a continuous process

21 Mitigate and manage risks Establish a system for risk monitoring and handling. During implementation incorporate the mitigating measures in the regular work plan of the programme or projects, assign staff members responsible for actions and resources required. Assess progress of mitigating measures, manage and report. Identify any new risks or changes in circumstances and add to risk register and work plan. Sometimes we need to redesign our risk mitigation strategy and actions. 21

22 Risk mitigation 22

23 Risk reporting and dialogue The programme risk management will be reported in the Annual Programme Report and in the NFP s Annual Strategic Report The risk picture and the possible mitigating actions is a central element in the dialogue between donors, beneficiaries and the FMO 23

24 Risk and results in the EEA and Norway Grants: A joint responsibility

25 Group work Questions for discussion: With the principles of risk management in mind, in your view: 1. Which risks do you think are most relevant? 2. Are there some additional risks to not achieving the results now? 3. What mitigating actions are needed?

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