SPEAKER EBOOK. Some of our key speakers share their thoughts, concerns and expectations for the market leading up to the conference

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1 SPEAKER EBOOK Some of our key speakers share their thoughts, concerns and expectations for the market leading up to the conference Discover what these key names have said about the market inside: Jose Antonio Carbonero, Head of Project Finance, Peru, BBVA Adi Blum, Director, First Reserve Energy Infrastructure Oscar Arrús, Partner, Rubio Leguia Normand Patricio Gutierrez Fernandez, CFO, Braskem Idesa

2 Jose Antonio Carbonero, Head of Project Finance, Peru, BBVA What challenges does the project finance market face in 2014 and beyond? Demand for long term investment in project financing will grow globally at very high rates. As the world population continues to grow, emerging markets become industrialized, and developed markets need to replace aging infrastructure, the need for project financing will continue to grow. A huge amount of public works and financing, then, is going to be needed at the global level. However, the demand for capital investment is going to grow, while the supply of savings may not keep up with the demand. This means higher costs for the projects and more competition on the global financial markets to attract saving to finance investments. This is the reason why countries all over the world should create the best and most favourable conditions for foster LTIs. Lending from banks is still depressed as a side effect of the global economic downturn and the subsequent Basel III regulations, which made banks, pull out of project finance in order to shore up quality assets or pay back debts. Capital markets and public-private partnerships are filling some of the role that banks used to, in funding energy and infrastructure developments, Where do the next opportunities lie for project finance banks and which projects are bankable? Beyond their traditional role in project finance transactions, commercial banks are developing new roles in providing advisory services; construction financing; intermediation to permanent long-term fixed-rate financing; commodity, currency, and interest rate risk management; foreign tax absorption; and working capital financing for projects thought the world. Looked at separately like this, these roles are responses to increasing competition both among commercial banks and between commercial banks and other institutional lenders and intermediaries to meet an explosion of worldwide project finance needs. Commercial banks differ considerably in their ability to provide such services. What is more, project financing deals lead to other banking businesses, such as deposit accounts and cash settlement services. The ideal candidates for project financing are capital investment projects that are capable of functioning as independent economic units, can be completed without undue uncertainty, and, when completed, will be worth demonstrably more than they cost to complete. 2

3 What are the characteristics of the market and on what terms are banks lending? The 2103 Project Finance International league tables have been published showing the global project loans market remained steady last year, recording a modest 2.6% increase on 2012 to US$204bn. The overall figure, however, masks the underlying trends. The Americas was up 31.1% to US$51.4bn, EMEA was up 30% to US$88.9bn while Asia Pacific was down 30.5% to US$63.6bn. Most notable of all were project bonds, which more than doubled in volume to US$49.2bn Historically 90-95% of all project financing debt globally had been funded by banks. In particular, European banks still have around two thirds of the global market in this sector. After the crisis, European banks have significantly scaled back new credit initiations. The project finance bank market is still open for new financings, but tenors and amounts have been significantly scaled back. Tenors have largely come in to 7-8 years and maximum capacity for quality EU based projects is up to 2 billion in the absence of a visible refinancing plan via capital markets. The cost has risen up. Given liquidity conditions in the loan syndication market, few banks are willing to take material underwriting risks; club transactions are currently thus the norm execution. There are also growing attempts, on the part of certain European banks, to sell their portfolios on the secondary markets. What countries, regions and sectors will be driving deal flow in the future? Global demand for energy and infrastructure is rising almost everywhere but barriers to entry are higher in some places than others. Asia remains hard to get into for foreign developers. But Latin America is more welcoming, with governments from Mexico to Brazil to Ecuador willing to invest in public-private partnerships. Brazil has several multibillion dollar hydroelectric dams under construction right now. Partnerships with foreign investors to develop metal mines are happening in Chile and Peru. Developers are also looking into North and South Africa and somewhat into the Middle East and Eastern Europe, which have highresource, low-infrastructure spots that are ripe for development. More finance for capital projects will come from international consortiums of companies, institutions and sovereign wealth funds. Mulligan said entry barriers and unique technical challenges are driving developers to form consortiums when bidding on projects. Multiple companies with complementary and overlapping capabilities are pooling their resources in bigger numbers than previous years. 3

4 Adi Blum, Director, First Reserve Energy Infrastructure What challenges does the project finance market face in 2014 and beyond? The challenge I see is actually an opportunity, as there is a tremendous ongoing need for financing of energy infrastructure. The project financing community must therefore determine how best to marshal its resources and take a flexible approach to new opportunities. This will include considering projects in new geographies, with new counterparties and applying new technologies. That said, in the projects we have sponsored, we have found project financing to be plentiful. What will be the emerging trends for the year ahead? Two major trends that will impact us for the coming years will be 1) the emergence and maturity of unconventional resource plays both in the US and increasingly in other regions around the world; as these resources are unlocked, tremendous knock-on effects will occur both within the energy infrastructure world and beyond to all segments of the economy; and 2) the growth of renewable projects; much of the power projects that will come online in the years ahead will be renewable, particularly as solar and wind projects find themselves at grid parity in certain geographies What countries, regions and sectors will be driving deal flow in the future? Arising out of the trends noted above, we believe energy infrastructure will continue to be a rich area of investment in the coming years. In particular, power generation (both renewable and natural gas fired), LNG and midstream sectors should see increasing activity. Though there will be opportunities in Europe, we are particularly excited about opportunities in the US, Canada and Latin America. 4

5 Oscar Arrús, Partner, Rubio Leguia Normand What challenges does the project finance market face in 2014 and beyond? I consider that getting Governments and authorities involved in the development of projects in the same page as lenders and project developers shall be the mayor challenge regarding this market. Overcoming this nowadays sort of mitigated obstacle will have as a direct consequence an improvement in the conditions for investment in many developing countries. What will be the emerging trends for the year ahead? Environmental responsibility and telecommunication and transportation infrastructure will be the emerging trends for the years ahead. It must be noted that environmental responsibility is becoming a critical matter in projects, since most Governments are currently requiring higher standards on this matter to the project developers. On the other side, and due to the increase of population and the development of technology, needs on telecommunication and transportation have raised in a way that was never seen before. What countries, regions and sectors will be driving deal flow in the future? I believe South America will be driving deal flow in the future which will be distributed among countries such as Peru, Chile, Colombia and Brazil since it is becoming usual for investors to seek for available projects in this region due to the actual requirements of countries in this region. As an example and according to the National Infrastructure Plan for Peru, requirements in this country are up to, approximately, US$ 88million and for that reason, up to 37 projects will be granted in the following couple of years. Definitely the leading sectors will involve toll roads construction, mass transportation, sanitation and telecommunication infrastructure since these represent common needs among people in South America which require to be taken care of the most. 5

6 What legal and regulatory changes are on the horizon and how will these impact the market? Currently, two projects of modification of laws are on discussion in the Congress of Peru. It is intended that through such projects modifications in the Law of Public Partnerships ( PPPs ) and the Law governing telecommunication infrastructure are included. Regarding PPPs, the proposed modifications aim to provide a new definition of PPP in order to provide the possibility of development for more projects that currently do not fit in the scheme of a PPP, such as applied research and technologic innovation. Also it is intended to establish new standard criteria on the application of the public private comparator. On the other side, due to the increase of technological needs of population, bureaucratic barriers on the development of telecommunication infrastructure are meant to be eliminated. These regulatory changes will have a progressive and long term impact on the upcoming projects to be developed since a wider market for project finance is now ahead of us. 6

7 Patricio Gutierrez Fernandez, CFO, Braskem Idesa What challenges does the project finance market face in 2014 and beyond? In my perspective the challenges that any project finance structure will face depends importantly on how; 1) the world economy is doing together with the specific economy of the country and 2) how is the country risk at the particular moment when the structure is being negotiated. As PF projects tend to be larger, the need to have a larger group of lenders becomes a great challenge to accommodate each lenders main objectives and previous experiences. On the other hand, Project Finance gives you the opportunity to be very innovative in structuring the financing for any particular project. What are your organisations plans for the year ahead? Currently my company is 100% focused on the Petrochemical Project that is being developed in Mexico! What countries, regions and sectors will be driving deal flow in the future? Definitely Mexico is a country with enormous potential for future deals. Based on all the structural reforms proposed by the federal government and approved by congress this should bring important projects, especially the Energy Reform will detonate growth opportunities. Also I believe that Central and South American region will continue to attract important investment opportunities in several sectors. What sources of funding are currently the most attractive and what dictates your funding strategy? Any funding strategy should be directed to the source or sources of funding where the resources are and will be available for the requirement of the specific project at the right time. If the company has a good project, funds should be available no matter how adverse the environment is. It all depends of the type of project or funding requirement. For a capital intensive investment the mix of multilateral agencies, development banks, ECA s and commercial banks is a good mix to achieve cost and tenor (even though is a big challenge to manage a large group). 7

8 DISCOVER MORE What have been the biggest deals in the Latin American region over the last 8 years? Do you want to find out more about what these speakers have to say about the market? If you do go to to see how you can book your place at Project Finance Magazine and Euromoney Seminars 8th Annual Latin American Energy & Infrastructure Finance Forum i The views expressed herein are for informational purposes only and are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Citigroup Inc. All opinions are subject to change without notice. 8

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