===!" Deutsche. The Role of Government in Developing Broadband - An Incumbent s Perspective -

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1 The Role of Government in Developing Broadband - An Incumbent s Perspective - Dr. Axel Wehmeier Deutsche AG Vice President Regulatory Strategy Porto, October 26, 2004

2 Topics Covered The Development of Brodband in Germany and its Prospects The Need of Private and State Cooperation Conclusions 1

3 Bringing Broadband to the People: The Success Story of T-DSL Development of subscriber Reasons for the most succesful product launch in DT s history: Customers in Mio Re - Internet hype -Marketing - Attractive prices - Sufficient bandwith (768 kbit/s) 2 - Political support (e.g

4 Temporary Slowdown, but Turnaround Ahead Reasons for temporary stagnating growth rates: High ISDN-penetration (10 mio subscribers, 100% coverage) Price increases due to regulatory intervention (from 5 to 17 within 3 years) Slow development of mass relevant broadband content No cable take off because of fragmented markets Forecasts Government and Consultants see a potential of 20 mio broadband users in Germany for the year 2010 Improved quality (up to 3 Mbit/s for the mass market) Active wholesale strategy of DT (Resale T-DSL was introduced in July) Growing supply and demand of German Broadband Content 3

5 Specifics of the German Broadband Mass Market DSL is sold by network operators ISP by Call : customers can choose between differnt ISPs ISP so far act as a sales channel for T-DSL DSL-competition is mainly ULL-based Most of the almost 2 Mio ULL are used for broadband Every second household can choose between different operators (strong competition on the country side, too) Quality (e.g. available bandwith) is a main differentiator The main part of the broadband network is IP, not ATM based 4

6 ULL Broadband Regulation in Germany is Among the Toughest, Because Most Prices are Cost Based subscription line traffic aggregation IP-backbone ISP- Services T-DSL/ Retail Resale = Allready regulated = Probably regulated soon line sharing BB-PoP ZISP OC dsl ISP-GATE Other ISP Other ISP 5

7 Coverage: About 90 % of German Households Can Get Standard T-DSL The German T-DSL Map Limits to additional xdslcoverage: Re 1. Length of the copper wire 2. All fibre-loops of the 90s, not compatible with xdsl 3. Insufficient regional market potential Of course, the three problems occure at the same time in certain regions! 6

8 Alternative Technologies for a Better Broadband Coverage Cable -> fragmented market structure T-DSL via satellite sdsl Mobile UMTS publicwlan WIMAX -> 100% coverage, but inconvenient -> business product -> under construction Powerline ->? 7

9 Backup: Coverage in Germany is Good Compared to Similar Countries International Comparison of Broadband Coverage 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 8 Belgium Luxembourg Sweden Denmark Netherlands Finland Iceland Austria Germany Spain UK Average Portugal Italy France Ireland Norway Greece June 2003 Dec. 2003

10 German e-federalism Has so far Failed to Be a Driver for Broadband Growth and Coverage egovernment Many regional initiatives Mainly information services, limited supply of real public services elearning Many local initiatives Focus on hardware, not on net-working ehealth Many regional projects are launched in a highly regulated and politisized health market Many highly sensitive issues (e.g. security) are still to be discussed A lot of money spent, still limited acceptance without convincing vision 9

11 The Development of Brodband in Germany and its Prospects The Need of Private and State Cooperation Conclusions 10

12 Alternative Technologies Have to Be Tested to Optimize Coverage Problems: Cost explosion as xdsl coverage comes closer to complete coverage Solutions: Regionally limited and subsidized tests of WIMAX etc. Free Rider Problem of investing and testing alternative technologies in an highly dynamic context Regulatory relaxation for emerging markets 11

13 Regulation is Always in Danger of Setting the Wrong Incentives for Innovation and Investment Problems: In a dynamic technological context the risk of innovation is not taken if the possibility of gaining additional market share is low Consistency of regulation often leads a regulator to apply classical regulation to new markets and thereby destroying incentives to invest In the long term infrastructure makes the difference Solutions: Regulatory safeguards for innovations (similar to a patents) Regulatory safeguards for longterm infrastructure competition Different remedies for emerging markets if needed at all 12

14 Public Broadband Services Have to Be Bundled in Order to Create a Push for Broadband Demand Problems: Political fragmentation does not lead to common standards Productivity and network advantages of broadband services are not deployed Learning Broadband is delayed Solutions: Political coordination with common basic standards Political Organisation of Competition for the Market PPP thatareableto inducea snowball effect Critical mass for broadband services is delayed 13

15 Broadband as a Basis Infrastructure for Regional SME Should also Be Promoted Through an Joint Effort Problems: Telecommunication-infrastructure is an important cost factor for SME. Attractive supply of broadband services can foster agglomeration tendencies Longterm financing of development projects is too risky Universal service obligations cannotmeetthepurposesof locational competition Solutions: Public funding is necessary for solving the initial financing issues PPP can help to signal a reliable and attractive environment to potential investors and help clustering - But: At least in Germany subsidizing structural weak regions is already extensive. 14

16 Because Market, Policy and Regulatory Issues are Correlated with Eachother a Masterplan Is Needed Demand for public services Technical Innovations Additional Coverage Infrastructure competition Increased penetration Demand for private services Service Competition 15

17 The Development of Brodband in Germany and its Prospects The Need of Private and State Cooperation Conclusions 16

18 Suggestions for Promoting Broadband When thinking about promoting broadband in rural areas speficic national environments have to be taken into account Market, policy and regulatory issues have to be solved simultaneously The market cannot not solve the coverage and penetration problems completely by ist own at this stage of broadband development. PPP (SME, elearning, egovernment) in order to accelerate technical progress and learning effects can have a significant impact on broadband in rural areas. Taken the dynamics of the environment into account, policy should allow for institutional competition in order to induce a discovery procedure 17

19 Backup: Different Network Topologies (x)dsl - Access backhaul service EU-Standard Modem xdsl splitter* M D F DSLAM ATM BRAS managed IP backbone network WWW (internet) POTS/ISDN (*if needed) PoP / Traffic Hand-over DSLAM access ATM level (parent/ distant switch) IP level (managed) www (unmanaged IP) Deutschland (x)dsl - Access backhaul service Modem xdsl splitter* M D F DSLAM BRAS managed IP backbone network WWW (internet) POTS/ISDN (*if needed) ATM PoP / Traffic Hand-over DSLAM access AT M level (parent/ distant switch) IP le vel (managed) www (unmanaged IP)

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