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10 The result of the bayesian analysis is the probability distribution of every possible hypothesis H, given one real data set D.

11 This prestatistical approach to our problem was the standard approach of Laplace and his contemporaries. As we have just seen, the approach is extremely successful. But nevertheless, it was rejected by the frequentists of the late 19th and the early 20th century. The idea that probability is a degree of rational belief seemed too vague for a foundation of a mathematical theory. It was certainly not obvious that degrees of rational belief had to be governed by the probability axioms used by Laplace and others. The axioms seemed arbitrary in this interpretation.

12 To eliminate this arbitrariness, the mathematicians of the late 19th and the early 20th century drastically restricted the possible applications of the theory, by insisting that probabilities had to be interpreted as relative frequencies of occurrences in repeated random experiments. The relative frequencies obviously satisfied the probability axioms, hence their arbitrariness was removed. Also, the frequentist approach, by its reference to observation of repeated experiments, seemed to make probability an objective property of random phenomena and not a subjective degree of the rational belief of Bayesians

13 But, the frequency definition of probability made the concept of the probability of a hypothesis illegitimate, e. g. the prior pr (H I ) and the posterior pr (H D, I ) in the coin example make no sense. A hypothesis is either true or false, it is not a random variable. A consequence is that scientists are not allowed to use Bayes theorem to asses hypotheses.

14 So, how would a frequentist deal with the coin fairness problem? He can not calculate the probability of the fairness hypothesis (the hypothesis that H = 1/2), even less the probability distribution of every possible hypothesis H, given the data D, since hypotheses have no probabilities. Hence, Fisher developed his system of significance tests for hypotheses testing. To perform the test, an experiment must be derived, in our example flipping the coin a predetermined number at times, say 12, and then the result analysed in three steps.

15 First, specify the outcome space. In our example 212 possible sequences of 12 heads or tails. The result of the experiment should be summarised in some numerical form, e. g. the number of heads in the outcome. This summary is called test-statistics, and as a function of outcomes it is a random variable which has probability.

16 Second, calculate the probability of every possible value of the test-statistics, given the hypothesis you are testing (Fisher called it the null-hypotheses). This is the sampling distribution of the test-statistics. In our case it is pr(r) =, with R the number of heads:

17 Third, look at all results which could have occurred (given the null-hypothesis) and which, as Fischer put it, are more extreme then the result that did occur. It means their probability is less then or equal to the probability of the actual outcome. Then calculate the probability pr* that the outcome will fall within this group. For example, if our experiment produced 3 heads in 12 flips, the result with less or equal probabilities to this are R = 0,1,2,3,9,10,11,12; and the probability of at least one of them occurring is pr*= Fisher s accepted convention is to reject the null-hypothesis just in case pr* 0.05

18 The null-hypothesis is rejected at a significance level is a technical expression, which means that the result of the experiment fall in a certain region (declared the rejection region ). But what does it really say about the null-hypothesis? Today the standard view (proposed by Neyman and Pearson) is that a rejection or non-rejection of a null-hypothesis is not an inductive inference, but just an instruction for inductive behaviour. If we behave according to the instruction, in the long run we shall reject a true hypothesis H no more then five times in a hundred times, when significance level is 0.05

19 There is also the problem of the stopping rule. Consider again that a coin has been flipped 12 times, giving 3 heads and 9 tails. Is this the evidence that the coin is biased? With the data provided, the frequentists cannot even begin to answer this question. Namely, from these data it is not clear what the outcome space for the data is. If the frequentist is told that the experimenter s plan was to flip the coin 12 times, then analysis can proceed as above. But this is not the only way for these data to be produced. The experimenter may have planned to flip the coin until he produced 3 heads, or until be becomes bored with the flipping. In this case, the outcome space will be different, even infinite or ambiguous, and the final result of the significance-test may also be different.

20 The basic problem of frequentist analysis is that, in search of a rejection region, it evaluates a single hypotheses by taking into account data that could have happened. But what this possible data have to do with our problem? We have made our experiment, we have got the real data and we want to estimate hypotheses given this real data. The result of the frequentis analysis is a behavioural attitude towards a single hypotheses, prompted by data that could have occurred but did not.

21 To be more specific, for bayesians there is the probability of H being in an interval: pr (R/N H R/N +) 95% For frequentists there is no such probability. There is only the inductive behaviour according to which, when we prove that: pr (H R/N H +) 95% then if we behave so that we accept R/N as our estimate of H, we will be correct in 95% of our repeated behaviours. The simple Bayesian 95% probability that your hypothesis is true, is replaced by the convoluted frequentist 95% choice of being correct in your repeated as if my hypothesis is being true behaviours. Why on earth would anybody do that? Is there not a better answer to the frequentist critique. A lot of people thought there is.

22 For Keynes a degree of rational belief is a degree of partial entailment. Sometimes a conclusion follows from premises, but more often it only partially follows from them. As Keynes used to say, a conclusion stands in a relation of probability with premises. The relation is logical, and probability is just an extension of classical true of false logic. But how do we asses this logical relation of probability and, more specifically, how do we establish the probability axioms from this logical point of view? Keynes thought we simply perceive them as true, with some kind of logical intuition.

23 Harold Jeffreys held the same logical attitude towards probability. He was one of the earliest critics of the frequentist statistics, but he did more then criticize. He solved many statistical problems completely inaccessible to frequentists. That should have been a clear indication that he was on the right track, even though his first hundred pages devoted to logical arguments for probability axioms were not very successful. His work was rejected on philosophical grounds, as was Keynes.

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30 Think of me as a bookie. If you are willing to pay me M for prospect of getting M if A happens, then your nett-gain in this bet on A, is M M if A happens and M if it does not happen. What I am offering you, i. e. M, is your possible brutto-gain or the value of the bet. What you are willing to pay for the bet, i.e. M, is your betting expectation. Your betting quotient, in this particular bet on A, is defined as q(a) = M /M. In this definition it is presupposed that your expectation M is proportional to the value of the bet M; i. e. that your betting quotient depends only on the proposition A, you are betting on, and not on M. Real bets are definitely not like that and this is the soft point of Ramsey-de Finetti s argument.

31 Your betting quotients are said to be coherent (and your bets to be fair) if I can not choose my Ms so that I win whatever happens. Or, for that matter, that I can not choose them so that I lose whatever happens. Presumption that M, which you are willing to pay for a bet, is proportional to M, which is the brutto-gain you are hoping for, is completely unsubstantiated. Even Ramsey was aware of that when he unsuccessfully tried to overcome the problem by introducing ultimate goods bets, instead of money bets.

32 The subjective bayesianism of Ramsey and de Finetti did not solve the problems of the logical (or objective) bayesianism of Keynes and Jeffreys. Cox in the 1940 (cf. [C1], [C2]) and Jaynes in the 1950 (cf. [J1], [J2]) begins to provide the missing foundation for logical bayesianism, which is today know as bayesian probability theory

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