Downtown Denver Quarterly Economic Update First Quarter 2012

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2 Executive Summary In the first quarter 2012, Downtown Denver s economic position continued to brighten with persistent job gains, high consumer confidence, increasing retail sales tax collections, a booming hospitality industry and gains in commercial and residential real estate. Potential risks to keep in mind include a fragile national economic recovery, the European debt crisis and uncertainty around U.S. political and fiscal issues. With 112,285 employees, Downtown Denver s employment was 2.6% higher in the fourth quarter 2011 than it was one year earlier. This is slightly higher than the increases in employment in the metro area and in the state over the past year, which grew by 2.3% and 2.1% respectively. Six of Downtown s major industry sectors had higher job growth than a year ago, and Downtown s largest industry, professional and business services, expanded by 9.5% in the past year. The highest job growth came from the smaller industries of education and health services (+29.8%) and natural resources and construction (+15.3%). Two notable relocations of companies to Downtown include 200 jobs from SCL Health System and the Intelligent Office s headquarters from Boulder to LoDo. Downtown Denver experienced high consumer confidence within the past year. Consumer confidence in the 1 st Quarter 2012 was almost 26% higher than the index level from the 4 th Quarter This is reflected in a phenomenal 12.1% growth in retail sales tax collections in the past year, with a total of $8.7 million collected in retail sales taxes in the first quarter Downtown s two largest retail categories are restaurants and hotels, bringing in over $5.8 million combined. The hospitality industry remains a stronghold in Downtown Denver with high retail sales tax collections as mentioned above, over 16,000 employed in the industry and an average occupancy rate of 66.3% for Downtown hotels, which is 5% above last year and 6% higher than the metro average. Two of Downtown Denver s hotel spas received high rankings: the Oxford Hotel and the Brown Palace Hotel & Spa were both named to Conde Nast Traveler magazine s 2012 Top 75 U.S. Hotel Spas. This industry continues to grow in Downtown Denver with over 750 hotel rooms planned or in development. Downtown Denver also remains attractive to residents with rebounding existing home sales and increasing average sales prices. As of April 2012, Downtown Denver had 50 for sale residential and 5,500 rental units planned or under construction. Downtown continues to be attractive for multi-family development as nearly a quarter of the 25 projects either planned or underway for Downtown as of April 2012 had more than 300 units. Downtown s existing home sales were 1% higher and the average condominium sales price rose 63% over the past year. This high number is partly due to the sale of more than 20 high-valued properties in the first quarter of 2012, with one that sold for more than $5 million. The City Center Neighborhoods saw similar trends with a 12.6% increase in existing home sales, a 5.3% increase in condominium sales and average condominium prices up by 45% ($430,251). In terms of commercial real estate, more than 1.6 million square feet of new Downtown office space is under construction, including the DaVita headquarters building and the IMA Financial Group headquarters building. The first quarter direct office market vacancy rate (11.2%) was nearly 1% below a year ago and direct average lease rates appear to be stabilizing, remaining within a relatively narrow range over the last year ($25.62 per square foot). In the retail market, first quarter direct vacancy rates (2.8%) were far below the metro-wide average (6.8%). 1

3 This report covers economic conditions in three areas. The first and smallest area is the Downtown Denver Business Improvement District (BID). The second area which aligns with the 2007 Downtown Area Plan is referred to as Downtown and includes the BID and several surrounding districts. The home sales section of the report also covers the City Center Neighborhoods, which include both Downtown and the BID in addition to other neighborhoods. Please see page 9 for a detailed map of the three areas. Metro Denver in this report refers to the seven-county region comprised of Adams, Arapahoe, Boulder, Broomfield, Denver, Douglas, and Jefferson Counties. Downtown s economic picture continued to brighten in the first quarter. Persistent job gains and declining unemployment are indicative of Downtown s improving labor market, and several announcements of company relocations and expansions will boost future employment. Further, improved consumer confidence contributed to gains in Downtown s retail sales tax collections and rising occupancy in Downtown hotels. Data also suggest that Downtown s housing market is strengthening in all areas. First quarter housing trends revealed a rebound in existing home sales and price gains that were driven by higher-valued property sales. Downtown s growing housing demand continues to spur significant residential projects either planned or already under construction that will add about 50 for-sale units and more than 5,500 rental units as of April. Downtown s commercial real estate markets predominantly in the office sector are also growing and builders have either planned or begun work on more than 1.6 million square feet of Downtown office space and about 750 new Downtown hotel rooms. As the fragile economic recovery continues, the biggest risks for Downtown s economic expansion and growth include the European debt crisis, slow economic growth in some of the world s stronger economies including China and Brazil, and uncertainty around U.S. political and fiscal issues. While many businesses remain cautious about hiring and uncertain about the future, Downtown s economic recovery is gaining traction. Downtown Economic Highlights The Sisters of Charity Leavenworth Health System (SCL Health System) will move its headquarters from Kansas to Metro Denver and could generate 750 local jobs over the next four years. About 200 of those jobs will be located Downtown, and the remaining 550 workers will operate from the Oracle campus in Broomfield. The SCL system oversees Exempla hospitals in Metro Denver as well as facilities in Kansas, California, and Montana. Virtual office solutions company Intelligent Office is relocating its Boulder headquarters to a 6,000- square foot space in Lower Downtown Denver. The company will move its corporate employees to the new location, and spokespeople say the move will complete its existing Metro Denver corridor market locations. Downtown Denver-based mortgage risk review firm Allonhill recently laid off 241 employees after the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of Currency (OCC) disqualified the firm from the Independent Foreclosure Review (IFR). As one of only eight companies in the nation to conduct IFR s, the OCC determined the firm s work for third parties was not aligned with the independence requirements for consulting companies. 2

4 Two Downtown Denver hotel spas the Oxford hotel and the Brown Palace Hotel & Spa were named to Condé Nast Traveler magazine s 2012 Top 75 U.S. Hotel Spas. Contributors determine the awards based on an annual Readers Choice Awards survey. Eight other resorts throughout Colorado also received top Condé Nast honors. Sage Hospitality is reportedly changing its plans for development of a W Hotel on downtown Denver s 16th Street Mall. Rather than the hotel, developers say, they will build a multi-use project that incorporates office, residential and street-level retail space. Plans for the development are still subject to review by the Lower Downtown Design Review Board. Recent notable rankings for Denver include: Denver is the nation s fifth-best convention city. (Metropoll as cited in the Denver Business Journal, January 2012) Denver is the fifth-best city for staying young. (RealAge.com, January 2012) Denver is one of top 10 most popular U.S. moving destinations. (Penske Truck Rental, January 2012) Denver is among North America s top 12 cities to find an IT job. (Modis Inc., February 2012) Denver ranked third among the top U.S. growth cities for relocating families. (U-Haul International, Inc., March 2012) Employment Activity The picture of local employment trends improved significantly when analysts released a scheduled revision to employment data in March. The revised data show Metro Denver s employment recovery has occurred more quickly than preliminary data suggested, and job growth accelerated between the fourth quarter of 2011 and the first quarter of Specifically, Metro Denver employment in the first quarter was up 2.3 percent over-the-year, while fourth quarter employment was up 1.6 percent. Jobs in natural resources and construction, wholesale and retail trade, professional and business services, and education and health services accounted for the vast majority of Metro Denver s total employment gain between the first quarters of 2011 and Total statewide employment in the first quarter was up 2.1 percent over-the-year, and employment nationwide was up 1.6 percent. (Sources: Colorado Department of Labor and Employment, Labor Market Information, Current Employment Statistics (CES); U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.) 3

5 Data on covered employment 1 demonstrates Downtown s persistent job market improvements above year-ago levels in the fourth quarter of Downtown employment was 2.6 percent higher in the fourth quarter of 2011 than it was one year earlier and while improving, the data also reflected mixed employment trends. Six of Downtown s 11 industry supersectors recorded job growth that was higher than year-ago levels and professional and business services the largest supersector in Downtown expanded 9.5 percent over-the year. Notably, job growth was highest in two of Downtown s smaller industries: education and health services (+29.8 percent) and natural resources and construction (+15.3 percent). Still, over-the-year employment declines occurred in five of the remaining industry supersectors and fourth quarter employment declined in Downtown s second largest sector, government (-2.2 percent). Total fourth quarter employment in the BID was 2.8 percent higher than the job total recorded one year prior. Similar to Downtown, BID industries with the largest percentage job gain over-the-year even though small in size were education and health services (+55.8 percent) and natural resources and construction (+16.1 percent). Employment also increased over-the-year in the BID s largest supersector, professional and business services (+8.5 percent). Six of the area s 11 industry supersectors reported fourth quarter employment that was below year-ago levels and the largest job losses occurred in manufacturing (-26.5 percent) and information ( percent). (Sources: Colorado Department of Labor and Employment, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW); Development Research Partners.) Covered Employment Business Units* (4Q11) Employment Downtown Downtown BID BID Industry 4Q11 4Q10 % ch 4Q11 4Q10 % ch Private Sector Natural Resources & Construction ,736 6, % 7,955 6, % Manufacturing % % Wholesale & Retail Trade ,757 2, % 3,631 3, % Transp., Warehousing & Utilities ,254 1, % 1,353 1, % Information ,333 5, % 5,159 6, % Financial Activities ,613 11, % 14,199 14, % Professional & Business Services 1,535 1,807 30,671 28, % 33,455 30, % Education & Health Services ,632 1, % 2,886 2, % Leisure & Hospitality ,741 12, % 16,837 16, % Other Services ,051 2, % 2,540 2, % Government ,777 21, % 23,380 23, % Total 3,599 4,408 95,713 93, % 112, , % Note: Data covers only those businesses with an address listed in administrative records. Most, but not all, businesses meet this criterion. As a result, changes in the data series over time are not always due to changes in actual employment some changes are due to differences in address reporting. *The count of business units is generally larger than the count of individual businesses because some businesses have multiple units. Sources: Colorado Department of Labor and Employment, QCEW; Development Research Partners. 1 Jobs covered by unemployment insurance as reported in the QCEW. These positions represent the vast majority of total employment, although the self-employed, some agricultural workers, some domestic workers, and several other categories of workers are excluded. This data series lags the CES series by about six months and is available for the nation, states, MSAs, and counties. 4

6 While higher than the U.S. average first quarter unemployment rate (8.6 percent), the first quarter unemployment rate for the City and County of Denver (9.1 percent) was down eight-tenths of a percentage point over-the-year. The City and County of Denver s labor force grew between the first quarters of 2011 and 2012 and the ranks of the unemployed shrank as more jobseekers found work. The Metro Denver and statewide average unemployment rates for the first quarter eight percent and 8.3 percent, respectively were both roughly three-quarters of a percentage point lower than year-ago averages. (Sources: Colorado Department of Labor and Employment, Labor Market Information; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.) Results of the most recent Manpower Employment Outlook Survey suggest more U.S. employers will add jobs in the second quarter than added positions during the first three months of the year. Eighteen percent of employers that participated in the survey said they would hire between April and June, while 14 percent said they would hire in last quarter s survey and 16 percent reported hiring plans in the year-ago survey. Well more than two-thirds said they would maintain current staffing levels. The share of Metro Denver employers that plan to maintain current staffing levels is also quite high. In fact, the share with no plans for hiring or firing in the second quarter (78 percent) was the highest share reported since at least the third quarter of This inertia, however, is not an entirely bad sign: the survey data suggest more employers may be abandoning plans for layoffs in favor of a wait-and-see approach to staffing. Eighteen percent of Metro Denver employers that participated in the most recent Manpower Survey said they would hire in the second quarter. (Source: Manpower Inc.) Consumer Activity While weak job growth and an unstable global economy left consumers worried in late 2011, their confidence rebounded in the first quarter to levels not seen since The Conference Board s National Consumer Confidence Index reading for the first quarter (67.5) exceeded the reading reported one year prior (66.9) and was almost 26 percent higher than the index level reported during the fourth quarter of The average first quarter 2012 reading for the Mountain Region index (72.8) was almost 49 percent higher than the fourth quarter reading and was up 10 percent over-the-year. (Source: The Conference Board.) Downtown s first quarter retail sales tax collections climbed 12.1 over-the-year and were 13.8 percent higher in the BID than sales reported one year prior. First quarter sales in Downtown s two largest retail trade categories restaurants and hotels increased 8.8 percent and 22.4 percent over-the-year, respectively. Similarly, these same two categories in the BID rose 9.8 percent and 22.5 percent over-the-year. While some of these gains reflect growth in the tax base, the slowly improving economic environment, job gains, and improved consumer confidence contributed to gains in the hotel and restaurant sectors. Solid growth in Downtown s third-largest contributor information producers grew 10.8 percent with similar retail sales growth reflected in the BID. (Source: City and County of Denver, Office of the Controller.) 5

7 Retail Sales Tax Collections by Industry BID Downtown Industry 1Q12 1Q11 1Q12 1Q11 Manufacturing $436,086 $447,142 $505,253 $515,225 Retail Trade Motor Vehicles & Auto Parts $152,565 $71,848 $238,229 $226,193 Furniture & Home Furnishings $23,849 $1,433 $58,012 $20,831 Electronics & Appliance Stores $7,674 $11,590 $8,169 $12,372 Bldg. Materials/Improvement/Nurseries $9,711 $9,268 $14,071 $12,928 Food & Beverage Stores $77,784 $72,160 $132,284 $118,110 Health/Personal Care Stores $98,626 $81,752 $107,669 $89,042 Service Stations $0 $34 $5,682 $5,771 Clothing/Accessory Stores $634,942 $539,603 $639,789 $543,759 Sporting Goods/Hobby/Book/Music Stores $113,208 $112,935 $119,484 $117,230 General Merchandise/Warehouse Stores $5,234 $4,262 $8,503 $6,836 Miscellaneous Stores $226,403 $174,849 $400,506 $319,902 Information Producers/Distributors $654,550 $592,564 $658,885 $594,452 Bus. Admin, Support, Waste/Remediation $41,812 $31,808 $63,686 $49,952 Hotel & Other Accommodation Svcs. $1,355,217 $1,106,695 $1,470,594 $1,201,085 Restaurants $3,538,799 $3,222,840 $4,328,045 $3,979,268 Other Services $2,252 $1,890 $8,668 $6,004 Total Retail Sales Tax Collections $7,378,712 $6,482,673 $8,767,529 $7,818,960 Yr/Yr % Ch 13.8% 12.1% Sources: City and County of Denver, Office of the Controller. First quarter average occupancy for Downtown hotels (66.3 percent) was almost five percentage points above the year-ago average (61.4 percent), although the first quarter average room rate ($137.47) fell slightly below the first quarter 2011 average ($138.29). Average occupancy for hotels across Metro Denver during the first quarter (60.2 percent) rose above the yearago average (59.5 percent), and the first quarter average room rate ($104.08) was up 1.2 percent over-the-year. (Source: Colorado Hotel and Lodging Association, Rocky Mountain Lodging Report.) Residential Real Estate The housing market showed signs of strengthening in all areas in the first quarter as existing home sales rebounded and average sales prices increased. Downtown existing home sales were one percent higher than sales reported one year prior, and the area s average condominium sales price rose 63 percent. First quarter home sales in the BID rose 25.4 percent over-the-year, and the area s average sales price increased 61 percent. (Note that part of the large percentage price increase in Downtown and the BID reflected the sale of more than 20 high-valued properties in the first quarter of Notably, one Downtown property sold for more than $5 million in the first quarter of 2012.) Similar trends were also reflected in the City Center Neighborhoods (CCN) as total first quarter home sales in the CCN were 12.6 percent higher than sales reported over-the-year. Sales of detached single-family homes throughout the CCN rose 45.9 percent between the first quarters of 2011 and 2012, while condominium sales rose 5.3 percent. Some of the significant increase in detached single-family homes reflects the arithmetic of small numbers: single-family detached homes represented just 23 percent of total home sales in the CCN. 6

8 Driven by higher-valued property sales in the first quarter, the average condominium price in the CCN ($430,251) was up 45 percent over-the-year, and the average detached home price in the neighborhoods ($315,543) was up 22.9 percent. These price gains were significantly higher than those in the seven-county Metro Denver region: Metro Denver s average price for condominiums ($181,402) was up 8.1 percent over-theyear in the first quarter, while the average price for detached homes ($286,836) was up 1.4 percent. The total count of Metro Denver homes sold during the first quarter (7,626) was 10.3 percent higher than the year-ago sales total. (Sources: Colorado Comps; Development Research Partners.) Existing Home Sales 1Q12 BID 1Q11 Yr/Yr % Ch 1Q12 Downtown 1Q11 Yr/Yr % Ch All City Center Neighborhoods 1Q12 1Q11 Yr/Yr % Ch Metro Denver 1Q12 1Q11 Yr/Yr % Ch Condominiums/Townhomes Sold During Quarter % % % 1,775 1, % Average Sales Price $585,552 $363, % $586,070 $359, % $430,251 $296, % $181,402 $167, % Average Price per Sq. Ft.* $411 $ % $423 $ % $347 $ % $149 $ % Detached Single-Family Homes Sold During Quarter % 5,851 5, % Average Sales Price N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A $315,543 $256, % $286,836 $282, % Average Price per Sq. Ft.* N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A $212 $ % $157 $ % Total Home Sales % % % 7,626 6, % The City and County of Denver s public trustee issued 1.3 percent more foreclosure filings in the first quarter than were issued one year prior. Analysts largely expected filings would at least temporarily increase once lenders moved ahead with the backlog of cases that accumulated during last year s legal standoff. The county s public trustee recorded a first quarter total of 841 new filings, a count relatively consistent with those reported after the 2001 recession. Total Metro Denver new foreclosure filings 0 reported during the first quarter (4,105) were down 1.8 percent over-the-year, but the pace of improvement throughout the region has slowed markedly: in the first quarter of 2011, region-wide new foreclosure inventory was 33.1 percent smaller than the year-ago count. (Source: Colorado Division of Housing.) 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Q4 2005Q4 2007Q4 2009Q4 2011Q4 City and County of Denver building officials issued 19 percent fewer permits for new residential construction in the first quarter than they issued one year prior. The decline, however, was more a reflection of project timing in the volatile apartment market than it was a slowdown in residential construction more broadly. First quarter issuance of detached home permits was up 38.4 percent over-the-year and issuance of condominium permits was up 64.7 percent, but a 231-unit apartment project permitted at the end of the first 500 City & County of Denver New Foreclosure Filings Metro Denver Source: Colorado Division of Housing. 7 12,500 10,000 7,500 5,000 2,500

9 quarter of 2011 made the first quarter 2012 count of apartment permits (87) look small by comparison. City officials issued 316 new residential construction permits in the first quarter of 2012 compared to 390 permits one year prior. Officials throughout Metro Denver issued 40 percent more permits for residential construction in the first quarter than they did one year prior. The count of permits issued for detached homes was up 44.4 percent overthe-year, the count issued for condominiums and townhomes rose 27.3 percent, and the count issued for apartments rose 34.8 percent. These significant gains suggest the housing market continues to recover, but note that total permit issuance in the first quarter was still only a fraction of the first quarter issuance that was typical before the recession. (Source: Home Builders Association of Metro Denver.) Commercial Real Estate Note: lease rates for industrial, flex, and retail property are triple-net. Office rates are full-service. First quarter direct office market vacancy rates for the BID and Downtown (11.1 percent and 11.2 percent, respectively) were both nearly one percentage point below year-ago averages. The rates remain above pre-recession norms rates closer to 10 percent but have ratcheted down almost consistently over the past year. Direct average lease rates appear to be stabilizing and have remained within a relatively narrow range over the past 12 months: the first quarter direct average rate in the BID ($25.88 per square foot) was up 1.2 percent over-the-year, and the first quarter average rate in Downtown ($25.62 per square foot) was three cents below the year-ago average. First quarter average rates for both areas were roughly eight to nine percent below prerecession peak rates. The Metro Denver direct average lease rate in the first quarter ($19.82 per square foot) was down 0.4 percent over-the-year, and the region s direct office market vacancy rate fell to 12.6 percent in the first quarter from 13.2 percent in the first quarter of (Source: CoStar Realty Information, Inc.) The Downtown industrial market moved even closer to full occupancy in the first quarter than it had been in the prior few quarters: the direct vacancy rate fell to 0.2 percent from the 2.1 percent rate reported one year prior, and just 2,660 square feet of space remained unoccupied. The average lease rate of $14.10 was unchanged over-the-year. The two buildings that comprise the BID industrial market were fully occupied in the first quarter. A slight increase in Metro Denver industrial vacancy over the past year has kept downward pressure on lease rates: the first quarter direct average rate ($4.55 per square foot) was 3.2 percent lower than the year-ago average. The region-wide direct vacancy rate in the first quarter (6.3 percent) was slightly higher than the yearago average rate (6.2 percent). (Source: CoStar Realty Information, Inc.) First quarter direct vacancy rates in the BID and Downtown retail markets 2.6 percent and 2.8 percent, respectively were both far below the metro-wide average (6.8 percent). Lease rates for both areas were also noticeably lower than rates reported before the recession. The first quarter direct average rate in the BID 8

10 ($22.49 per square foot) was almost 12 percent lower than the highest rate reported before the downturn began, and the first quarter rate for all of Downtown ($21.02 per square foot) was almost 10 percent below the pre-recession peak. The first quarter direct average lease rate for retail property throughout Metro Denver ($14.79 per square foot) was up 0.5 percent over-the-year. (Source: CoStar Realty Information, Inc.) Commercial Vacancy and Lease Rates by Property Type, Vacancy Rate Avg. Lease Rate (per sq. ft.) 1Q12 1Q11 1Q12 1Q11 Office BID 11.1% 11.8% $25.88 $25.57 Downtown 11.2% 12.1% $25.62 $25.65 Metro Denver 12.6% 13.2% $19.82 $19.90 Industrial BID 0.0% 1.8% N/A N/A Downtown 0.2% 2.1% $14.10 $14.10 Metro Denver 6.3% 6.2% $4.55 $4.70 Retail BID 2.6% 3.5% $22.49 $25.20 Downtown 2.8% 3.1% $21.02 $21.61 Metro Denver 6.8% 7.7% $14.79 $14.71 Note: Vacancy and average lease rates are for direct space only (sublet space excluded). Retail and industrial lease rates are triple-net. Source: CoStar Realty Information, Inc. Development Activity Several non-residential construction projects were either planned or underway Downtown. They included: About 750 hotel rooms (combined) in the Hampton Inn/Homewood Suites at th St., the Marriott Renaissance at 17th & Champa streets, and the Metro State College Hotel & Hospitality Learning Center. More than 1.6 million square feet of office space (combined) is underway, including the 1601 Wewatta building, the DaVita headquarters building, East West Partners two large office towers at 16 Chestnut and 16 Wewatta, the 16th & Market building, the IMA Financial Group headquarters building, a mixed-used building at the Colorado State Capitol, and the five-story, th Street building. Other projects underway included the Community College of Denver s Student Learning & Engagement Building, the Denver Police Crime Lab, the Metro State Student Success Building, the Ralph L. Carr Colorado Judicial Complex, and the redevelopment project at Denver Union Station. 9

11 Downtown continues to be an attractive location for multi-family development. Nearly a quarter of the 25 projects either planned or underway Downtown as of April 2012 had more than 300 units. Some of the largest residential projects included the Colorado Division of Housing s South Lincoln Park development at West 10th Avenue and Osage Street, Shea Properties 18th & Curtis development in the Central Business District neighborhood, Allied Realty Group s 2785 Speer apartment project which recently broke ground near Interstate 25 and Speer, and the 19th & Chestnut project near Union Station. Residential Developments Planned or Underway as of April 2012 Downtown Neighborhoods For-Sale Rental Units Units Auraria - - Ballpark Capitol Hill - 99 Central Business District Central Platte Valley/Denver Union Station - 2,039 Curtis Park/Five Points Golden Triangle Highland Jefferson Park La Alma/Lincoln Park Lower Downtown - - Uptown Total 50 5,582 Source: Downtown Denver Partnership. 10

12 BID (purple), Downtown (purple and yellow), and City Center Neighborhoods (purple, yellow, and blue) Written in June 2012 by: Development Research Partners, Inc West Belleview Ave, Ste 100 Littleton, Colorado

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