Reverse Mortgage Market Index (Q RMMI) NRMLA/RiskSpan September 21, 2015
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1 Reverse Mortgage Market Index (Q RMMI) NRMLA/RiskSpan September 21, 2015
2 Presentation Outline Trends in Senior Housing Aggregate Home Values (Q Q2 2015) Aggregate Mortgage Debt Levels (Q Q2 2015) Aggregate Equity (Q Q2 2015) Reverse Mortgage Market Index (RMMI) (Q Q2 2015) Historical Summary of key RMMI components (Q Q2 2015) Overview of RMMI Data Sources Detailed Steps for RMMI Calculation Schedule of RMMI Release Dates 2
3 Quarter over quarter changes in senior home values Prepared by RiskSpan, Inc. Data sources: American Community Survey, Census, FHFA 3
4 Quarter over quarter changes in senior mortgage debt levels Prepared by RiskSpan, Inc. Data sources: Federal Reserve 4
5 Quarter over quarter changes in senior home equity Prepared by RiskSpan, Inc. Data sources: American Community Survey, Census, FHFA, Federal Reserve $4.08T RMMI (Q2 2015) = * 100 = $2.09T 5
6 Quarter over quarter changes in RMMI Prepared by RiskSpan, Inc. Data sources: American Community Survey, Census, FHFA, Federal Reserve 6
7 Historical RMMI Quarter Sr. home Value ($T) Senior Mortgage Debt ($T) Sr. home Equity ($T) RMMI Quarterly Change 2013-Q % 2013-Q % 2013-Q % 2013-Q % 2014-Q % 2014-Q % 2014-Q % 2014-Q % 2015-Q % 2015-Q % Prepared by RiskSpan, Inc. Data sources: American Community Survey, Census, FHFA, Federal Reserve 7
8 Overview of RMMI Data Sources and Calculation Steps One Time Setup Quarterly Process Data source: American Community Survey (Census) Population Estimates (Census) Survey of Consumer Finance (Fed. Reserve) FHFA state and MSA-level HPI Indices Z1 Flow of Funds Accounts (Fed Reserve) Process: Pull fields related to senior-headed homeowning households at MSA level and establish baseline estimates of population size and avg home price Pull county-level age-cohort population forecasts and map forecasts to MSAs Compare LTV ratios of Senior Population to LTV ratios of the general population of homeowners 1. Scale up (or down) Estimate of Avg Home Price at MSA-level 2. Scale up Estimate of Senior Population at MSA-level 3. Aggregate Sr. Housing Values across all MSAs Extract aggregate Mortage Debt Level and use relative LTV ratio and Aggregate Senior housing value to estimate Aggregate Senior Equity Output: MSA-level estimate of # of senior homeowners and of avg senior owned home value Annual MSA-level Population Growth Rates for the senior population Relative Ratio of Senior LTV to General Population LTV National Estimate of U.S. Senior Home Values National Estimate of Senior Home Equity 8
9 Detailed Steps for Calculation of RMMI Step 1: Use 2012 Survey of Consumer Finance to calculate LTV ratios for senior population and general population Value Source: 1) % of home-owning senior households with mortgage 43.9% SCF (every 3 years) 2) Median LTV for senior households with mortgage 43.5% SCF (every 3 years) 3) LTV for senior home-owners % calculation: (1) * (2) 4) % of home-owning all households with mortgage 69.8% SCF (every 3 years) 5) Median LTV for all households with mortgage 63.2% SCF (every 3 years) 6) LTV for all home-owners % calculation: (4) * (5) 7) Relative LTV ratio (Senior to General Population) 43.2% calculation: (3) / (6) Step 2: Use Fed's Z1's total household mortgage debt estimate to estimate the LTV ratio for the general population (Q1 2015) 8) Total mortgage debt ($T) $9.37 Z1 (quarterly) 9) Total Population Home Value ($T) $18.84 RS Estimate (quarterly) 10) LTV (General Population) 49.7% calculation: (8) / (9) Step 3: Use relative LTV ratio and current general population LTV ratio to estimate Senior LTV ratio and Senior home equity (Q1 2015) 11) Home Value-Senior Population ($T) $5.04 RS Estimate (quarterly) 12) Senior LTV ratio 21.5% calculation: (7) * (10) 13) Senior Home Debt ($T) $1.08 calculation: (11) * (12) 14) Senior Home Equity ($T) $3.96 calculation: (11) - (13) Step 4: Calculate Q Reverse Mortgage Market Index (RMMI) 15) Estimate Senior Home Equity Level in Base Period (Q1 2000) ($T) $2.09 RS Calculation (Senior House Value - Senior Debt Level) 16) RMMI = Q / Q Sr Home Equity Level calculation: (14) / (15) * 100 Notes on mortgage estimate: 1) The LTV estimates from the SCF assume home values are equal for families with and without mortgages (in reality, values are probably higher for homes with mortgages). 2) This methodology allocates all of the US mortgage debt to the owned households within the sample these households, however, represent only households in MSAs, as identified by the ACS. It excludes non-msa households, which make up about 13% of all US owner-occupied homes. There several mitigating factors: a) We think MSAs are the relevant market for the Reverse Mortgage product b) The value of non-msa homes is typically lower than MSA homes so the proportion of mortgage debt we are over-allocating to MSA homes will be <<13% c) Allocating all of the mortgage debt to the households in our population adds some conservatism to home equity estimates 9
10 Schedule of RMMI Release Dates The reverse mortgage market index is updated quarterly, about two and a half months after the close of the quarter. This timing is based on scheduled releases of public data used by RiskSpan to update the different components of the index. The quarterly updates of the index are based on three components: changes in senior population (at the local MSA level); changes in house prices (at the local MSA level); changes in total mortgage debt (at the national level). The quarterly population change estimates are based on forecasts made by the Census bureau based on the last Census. Updates for this component are thus not dependent on release by an external source. House price change estimates are based on the FHFA indices released quarterly (about 7 weeks after the close of the quarter). Changes in national mortgage debt levels are based on the Federal Reserve s Z1 Flow of Funds Accounts released quarterly (about 9 weeks after the close of the quarter). HPI Release Dates: Q2 2015: August 25, 2015 Q3 2015: November 25, 2015 Federal Reserve Z1 Flow of Funds Report Release Dates: Q2 2015: September 18, 2015 These data are released during the second week of March, June, September, and December. 10
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