# The Ultimate Fibonacci Guide By Fawad Razaqzada, technical analyst at FOREX.com

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1 The Ultimate Fibonacci Guide By Fawad Razaqzada, technical analyst at FOREX.com Who is Fibonacci? Leonardo Bonacci also known as Leonardo Fibonacci was an Italian mathematician in the 12 th century. He was considered the most talented Western mathematician of his time and one of the greatest of all time. Although Fibonacci himself did not come up with what is now known as the Fibonacci sequence, he certainly introduced the phenomenon to the West in his book Liber Abaci. (Source: What is the Fibonacci sequence? F 0 F 1 F 2 F 3 F 4 F 5 F 6 F 7 F 8 F 9 F 10 F 11 F 12 F 13 F 14 F 15 F 16 F 17 F 18 F n (0+1 = 1) As can be seen, each number in the sequence is the sum of the prior two numbers. (1+1 = 2) Thus, the Fibonacci sequence can be summarized using this formula: (1+2 = 3) F n = (F n 1 ) + (F n 2 ) (2+3=5) How are the Fibonacci retracement and extension levels derived from the above sequence? 61.8% = divide current number with next (from 13 onwards) e.g. 55/89 = (approx.) 161.8% = divide next number with current e.g. 89/55 = This is also called the golden ratio 38.2% = (or skip 1 sequence in division e.g. 55/144 = 0.382) 23.6% = skip 3 sequences in division e.g. 34/144 = (approx.) 78.6% = % = % = or %, 50%, 100% & 200% are not Fibonacci numbers, but are nonetheless used by some traders Most important Fibonacci levels 161.8% 61.8% 38.2% Why is Fibonacci analysis so popular in trading? Fibonacci levels are geometric numbers, so the retracements & extensions appear pleasing to the eye Fibonacci levels provide objective price reference points and thus remove subjectivity (when used correctly) Fibonacci retracements and extensions are among the invisible levels of support and resistance

2 Difference between Fibonacci retracements and extensions Fibonacci retracement levels are those that are lower than the 100% of a price swing, while extensions are those that are above 100%. Fibonacci levels are used as support or resistance, and/or for projection of profit targets. Figure 1: Fibonacci levels in a downward trending market Figure 2: Fibonacci levels in an upward trending market How to plot Fibonacci levels on the chart Almost all trading platforms will have Fibonacci as part of their technical tools, so one does not have to worry about calculating the retracement and extension levels manually. All the trader has to do is identify a distinct high and a distinct low and plot the Fibonacci levels by dragging it from one extreme to the next. It is important to select the candlesticks wicks, so as to obtain more accurate results. They are always drawn from the left to the right: for an upward trending market, it is drawn from the low to the high, and for a downward trending market, it is drawn from the high to the low Once plotted, the trading platform would automatically display the Fibonacci retracements and extensions, and also their corresponding price levels. The Fibonacci tool is highly customisable, so one could add or remove certain levels. Figure 3: Before Figure 4: After Distinct high Gold 1HR Distinct high Gold 1HR Distinct low Distinct low

5 Fibonacci retracement level with the 200-day moving average provided strong support for the GBP/JPY on several occasions. Though each separate occasion could have turned out to be decent trading opportunities, there was a Figure 8: danger for price to have broken further lower. But as it turned out, the buyers successfully defended that area of support and this was confirmed by the break above the short-term trend. Thus the long trade could have been put on upon the break of this trend line. The rally eventually ran out of steam around the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the AB downswing. Thus this particular retracement level could have been used as a profit target. One of the least appreciated advantages of using Fibonacci this way is that it will remove a great deal of subjectivity from trading. Our last example in Figure 8 is the daily chart of the EUR/NZD. There at least four separate occasions where a 61.8 or 78.6 per cent Fibonacci retracement level has provided strong resistance. The most obvious of these is the 4th occasion when price had staged a sharp rally from point F towards its 200-day moving average. The fact that the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement Figure 9: level of the downswing from point A to F had converged with the 200-day SMA there meant that price was highly likely to turn there. On top of this, there was already a death crossover (which occurs when the 50-day SMA crosses below the 200-day SMA) meaning that trend was indeed very bearish. As it turned out, it was unable to hold above the supportturned-resistance at on a closing basis. So, if the trade at the 61.8% level was missed, one could have still sold it near the handle with a stop above the 61.8% level. In summary, the probability of price turning at a Fibonacci level greatly increases when they converge with other technical tools. But even on their own, Fibonacci levels often provide strong support and resistance. Such setups occur time and again and on various time frames. Generally, the higher the time frame the more significant the Fibonacci support or resistance is likely to be. Try applying Fibonacci levels in the direction of the underlying trend.

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