Strengthening markets trigger real estate development cycle. Global Market Perspective Q3 2014

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1 Strengthening markets trigger real estate development cycle Global Market Perspective Q3 2014

2 Global Market Perspective Third Quarter 2014 Strengthening markets trigger real estate development cycle An abundance of equity, new capital formation and improving debt liquidity are supporting a robust global commercial real estate investment market. With the market on track to achieve the highest transaction volumes since 2007, JLL s forecasts for full-year 2014 have been upgraded. In the occupational markets, most indicators show steady progress across all the main commercial sectors. Shortages of high-quality space are intensifying, which is helping to boost developer confidence and trigger an uptick in new construction. Momentum continues to build in the global real estate investment market The second quarter of 2014 has maintained the strong momentum of recent quarters. First half 2014 investment volumes are 28% higher than a year ago, prime yields in core markets have defied expectations by compressing further, and office capital values are accelerating once again, up 8.8% over the past year. The Americas and EMEA regions continue to demonstrate the strongest volume growth. Asia Pacific has struggled to sustain the record pace of 2013, but investor interest remains robust. Given capital availability and the transactions pipeline, full-year 2014 global investment volumes are expected to hit US$700 billion, an uplift of about 20% on 2013 levels. Direct Commercial Real Estate Investment, US$ billions (F) 20% % 15% % Americas EMEA Asia Pacific Global XX% Projected Change COPYRIGHT JONES LANG LASALLE IP, INC All Rights Reserved 2

3 Investors targeting multiple geographies Investors are predominantly targeting the large liquid markets; the Big 7 1 countries accounted for 77% of total transactions in H1, while the four Super Cities London, New York, Tokyo and Paris were the destinations of 20% of all capital flows. But investors are also now aggressively targeting opportunities in smaller geographies, as well as those markets further up the risk curve. For example, Brazil, Mexico, the Benelux countries, Spain and Ireland all registered notable uplifts in activity during H1. Office leasing market recovery is still patchy The global office leasing markets are moving in a positive direction, although the signs are more ambiguous than in the investment market. The United States has registered the highest net absorption rate of the current cycle, and London and Paris are leading the recovery in demand in Europe; in Asia Pacific, leasing volumes have rebounded by 20% compared to 2013 levels. However, global leasing volumes in Q2 were still only 5% higher than in 2013, with corporate occupiers keeping a close eye on space usage and efficiency. Space shortages trigger office development cycle Shortages of quality office space in the world s dominant office markets are intensifying. While the recent uptick in new construction marks the start of a new development cycle, it will not translate into deliverable space until late 2015 and 2016, leaving a period of months of Grade-A supply shortages and rental uplift. Singapore is expected to show the strongest rental growth this year however the top performers will increasingly be dominated by U.S. cities. The U.S. office market overall is expected to see rental growth at well over double the pace of inflation over the next 2-3 years. Global Office Completions, millions sq m Average U.S. Europe Asia Pacific (F) 2015 (F) 24 markets in Europe; 25 markets in Asia Pacific; 44 markets in the U.S. Asia relates to Grade A only. 1 Australia, China, France, Germany, Japan, UK and the U.S. COPYRIGHT JONES LANG LASALLE IP, INC All Rights Reserved 3

4 Prime Offices Projected Changes in Values, % % + 0-5% -0-5% Singapore Rental Values Dubai, London*, Tokyo Beijing, San Francisco, New York* Boston, Mexico City Stockholm, Hong Kong, Seoul Paris*, Sydney, Frankfurt Chicago, Los Angeles, Toronto, Washington DC Shanghai, Madrid, Brussels, Mumbai Moscow Capital Values Tokyo, Boston, Chicago Madrid, New York*, Los Angeles San Francisco, Mexico City Dubai, London* Seoul, Sydney, Beijing Frankfurt, Singapore Stockholm, Paris*, Toronto Washington DC, Shanghai, Mumbai Brussels, Hong Kong % Sao Paulo Moscow, Sao Paulo *New York Midtown, London West End, Paris - CBD. Nominal rates in local currency. Retail revival, polarisation and consolidation Retail markets in the U.S. and Europe have continued their steady recoveries despite ongoing structural shifts in the retail industry. Polarisation remains pronounced and many mid-priced retailers are being squeezed. Retailer consolidation will continue to be a trend this year and M&A activity is likely to tick upwards as retailers respond to changes in consumer demand. In Asia, international retailers are looking for growth opportunities although some caution was evident in the second quarter of Supply chain realignment boosts warehousing sector Supply chain realignment and massive structural changes in the retail sector are driving robust demand for functional modern warehousing across all three global regions. Rental growth and supply shortages are stimulating construction in both North America and Europe, an increasing proportion of which is being built on a speculative basis. Hotel investment maintains momentum Hotel investment volumes have maintained the strong levels of 2013, with activity dominated by private equity and single-asset transactions. Activity remains strong, and we now expect the full-year 2014 volumes to reach US$54.5 billion, compared to US$52 billion in Mixed picture in residential sector London and Dubai are leading price growth in the high-end residential sector, boosted by international demand, although there are early signs of cooling in both markets. The U.S. apartment market has continued its growth run, with the tightest conditions apparent in the gateway cities. The Asia Pacific high-end residential sales market remains subdued due to a combination of softer economic growth and policy restrictions. COPYRIGHT JONES LANG LASALLE IP, INC All Rights Reserved 4

5 Global Market Perspective Contents Global Economy... 6 Real Estate Capital Markets... 8 Investment Volumes... 8 Capital Values and Yields Corporate Occupiers Global Real Estate Health Monitor Office Markets Office Demand Dynamics Office Supply Trends Office Rental Trends Retail Markets Industrial Warehousing Markets Hotel Markets Residential Markets Recent Key Investment Transactions COPYRIGHT JONES LANG LASALLE IP, INC All Rights Reserved 5

6 Global Economy Recovery continues, but progress remains slow The global economy experienced an uneasy start to the year, with factors such as political disruption and poor weather undermining the healthy sentiment of the previous six months. Conditions have stabilised in the emerging world over the last quarter with currencies reversing some of their losses, but ongoing geopolitical concerns remain about Ukraine and the Middle East, as well as the risks in China. For the developed world, statistics have been slightly disappointing and downgrades to forecasts have been the norm. The most disturbing news was a big contraction in the United States economy in Q1. This was largely caused by the unusually bad weather in the U.S. winter. The underlying strength of the economy remains and activity is set to rebound over the rest of 2014, but the poor figures have halved growth expectations for the current year at a stroke. In Europe, recent statistics have presented a mixed picture. The UK and Germany appear the healthiest of the larger economies. By contrast, concerns about some of the other Eurozone economies linger. France has held up in terms of its GDP outlook, but prospects remain relatively weak as high unemployment and fiscal consolidation weigh heavily on demand. GDP Projections 2014 in Major Economies Recent Movements Australia China France Germany India Japan UK USA April July 2014 (Latest) Change (bps) Source: Oxford Economics, July 2014 ECB cuts to avert deflation elsewhere, tightening edges closer Nothing highlights the polarised nature of the recovery in the Western economies more than the European Central Bank s policy loosening in June. By its sober standards, the move was surprisingly bold, not just in cutting official rates to almost zero but also in introducing negative interest rates for deposits and other credit-boosting measures. The ECB only fell short in rejecting calls for QE. At a time when markets are highly sensitive to monetary policy speculation, the move was well received, not least because it implies that a Eurozone tightening is still several years away. Despite the emergence from recession over the last 12 months, the Eurozone economy continues to face challenges, most notably the spectre of deflation. Inflation rates have fallen to very low levels in recent months, currently averaging around 0.5% year-on-year compared with a 2% official target. A strong euro and a weak recovery mean there is a risk that prices could soon fall in the more sluggish economies. In the UK the picture could not be more different, with the Bank of England s bearish statements leading markets to bring in their expectations for the first hike since the financial crisis to late The economy is strong enough to justify an early move and the UK may now lead the major economies of the developed world in raising rates. In the U.S., tapering continues apace, with liquidity injections set to be withdrawn by the autumn. Despite poor Q1 data, market forecasts for the timing of Fed hikes have moved slightly earlier to mid COPYRIGHT JONES LANG LASALLE IP, INC All Rights Reserved 6

7 Near-term outlook weaker, though steady upturn in prospect for the medium term World GDP output is now forecast to rise by 3% in The prediction has been revised lower this quarter largely as a consequence of the steep U.S. downgrade, and GDP growth now stands at a similar rate to last year. Even before this change, emerging markets had the most dynamic outlook, continuing the post-crisis trend. But the balance is still slowly tipping back towards the developed world, where a steady upturn is in prospect. Asia Pacific continues to be the fastest growing region. Expansion rates remain close to 5% a year, broadly flat overall, as deceleration in China and Japan is offset by improvements elsewhere. China s slowdown is in part a reflection of an economy that is rebalancing, and the country s authorities will manage this to prevent too sharp a deceleration. India has seen activity disappoint over recent years and still faces many policy challenges even after the election of the first majority government in 30 years. Japan s economy likely pulled back in Q2 after April s sales tax hike, although some progress was seen on structural reforms, i.e. the third arrow of the Abenomics policy package announced in June. Further monetary loosening may be needed or Japan risks returning to a similar low-growth trajectory to that seen since the mid-1990s. The setback to U.S. activity is likely to postpone recovery in the Americas region, but a strong rally is anticipated during The U.S. had previously led the upturn in the developed world, but the one-off Q1 contraction means that growth has been revised significantly lower this year. The underlying health of the economy is not in question, however, and a return to trend next year is forecast. Europe remains the global laggard but, promisingly, is the only region where growth prospects have been revised upwards this quarter. The Eurozone is projected to emerge from recession this year, although growth rates will continue to trail other regions and the rest of the EU. Germany shows the most consistent expansion during , while France s recovery is slower than the sluggish European average. By contrast, fortunes for the troubled fringe economies have improved more than expected, with Spain and Italy forecast to return to growth. In the rest of Europe, prospects are healthier. The UK has seen a further upward revision in forecasts and is now predicted to be the most dynamic of the larger developed economies. Growth will not be sustained at this high rate but will remain above that of its Eurozone neighbours. The Nordic recovery is slightly behind the UK yet still ahead of the Eurozone, while the improvement in CEE markets continues, with Poland performing strongly. Elsewhere in the East, the most notable change has been a further sharp downgrade for the Russian forecast. Global Outlook - GDP Growth % pa, Global Asia Pacific Australia China India Japan Americas U.S Europe France Germany UK Source: Oxford Economics, July 2014 COPYRIGHT JONES LANG LASALLE IP, INC All Rights Reserved 7

8 Real Estate Capital Markets Investment Volumes Increasing equity allocations and improved debt markets help to drive volume growth The second quarter of 2014 has maintained the momentum seen in Q1, underpinned by increasing equity allocations and improving debt markets. The US$158 billion transacted was 14% ahead of the first quarter and means that first half 2014 volumes were 28% higher at US$297 billion. Over the last five years we have seen an improvement in transactional activity globally, but now the markets are diverging; the Americas and EMEA continue to grow, while Asia Pacific has, so far in 2014, struggled to keep pace with 2013 activity, although a strong second half is anticipated. Direct Commercial Real Estate Investment Regional Volumes $US Billions Q1 14 Q2 14 % change Q1 14-Q2 14 Q2 13 % change Q2 13-Q2 14 H H % change H H Americas % 52 30% % EMEA % 40 49% % Asia Pacific % 32-2% % TOTAL % % % Direct Commercial Real Estate Investment Quarterly Trends, Q Q US$ billions Q107 Q207 Q307 Q407 Q108 Q208 Q308 Q408 Q109 Q209 Q309 Q409 Q110 Q210 Q310 Q410 Q111 Q211 Q311 Q411 Q112 Q212 Q312 Q412 Q113 Q213 Q313 Q413 Q114 Q214 Americas EMEA Asia Pacific Rolling Four-Quarter Average COPYRIGHT JONES LANG LASALLE IP, INC All Rights Reserved 8

9 United States - the main contributor to growth in H The Americas has led the other regions in volume growth this year. Quarterly volumes of US$67 billion pushed first half transactional activity to US$129 billion, 44% above the same period in Growth in the United States has been driven by strong interest on the part of equity capital sources across the spectrum of investor types - both domestic and foreign investors. However, activity is underpinned by very liquid debt markets, as balance sheet lenders remain very competitive and have gained market share from CMBS lenders. Central and South America pulled along by their northern neighbours While the U.S. continues to be the main contributor to Americas growth, in the second quarter it was accompanied by Brazil and Mexico, where large industrial and retail portfolio deals moved transactional activity to US$4 billion in each market and ensured that both have transacted more in the first half of 2014 than they did in the whole of Canada where first half volumes were down 18% year-on-year is the only weak spot in the region, as investors contemplated sustained upward pressure on vacancy rates amid a sluggish overall economy. Direct Commercial Real Estate Investment Largest Markets $US Billions Q1 14 Q2 14 % change Q1 14-Q2 14 Q2 13 % change Q2 13-Q2 14 H H % change H H USA % % % UK % % % France % % % Germany % % % Japan % % % Australia % 7.3 7% % China % % % Mexico % % % Sweden % % % Brazil % % % South Korea % % % Canada % % % Netherlands % % % Singapore % % % Norway % % % Hong Kong % % % Spain % % % Belgium % % % Italy % % % Ireland % % % Thailand % % % Asia Pacific volumes remain below 2013 pace Second quarter volumes of US$32 billion in Asia Pacific were 38% up on Q1, but a weak start to 2014 continues to hold the region back with first half volumes 8% behind the record pace set in Japan continues to be the favoured country for investors with volumes roughly in-line with last year. Q activity was down on last year, but this was primarily due to a slowdown in IPO activity and a smaller pipeline of deals following a very active first quarter. The investment climate remains highly active with a huge pipeline of large deals and a growing wave of investors seeking exposure to Japan s improving occupier markets. The fortunes of Australia and China continue to diverge with volumes in Australia boosted by a large REIT privatisation this quarter, while Chinese volumes for H are 15% below 2013 COPYRIGHT JONES LANG LASALLE IP, INC All Rights Reserved 9

10 as the market struggles to find direction, which in turn is causing uncertainty and investor hesitation in many of the smaller markets across the Asia Pacific region. Broadening demand sees big and small markets moving in unison across Europe Investor activity in Europe continues to follow the theme highlighted at the end of last year, with investors looking across multiple geographies and sectors for opportunities along the risk curve. This trend is reflected in improved transactional activity with the US$59 billion recorded this quarter almost 50% above Q Evidence of this broadening trend is shown by volumes in the Benelux countries, Central and Eastern Europe, and Southern Europe all registering at least 50% more transactions by value than the first half of This - combined with the Big 3' markets of the UK, France and Germany growing by 38% over the first half of is maintaining buoyant investor sentiment, with the market witnessing more large single-asset and cross-continental portfolio deals. Super Cities lead volumes growth While investors are widening their search into smaller geographies, the four Super Cities London, New York, Tokyo and Paris have continued to account for 20% of total global investment volumes (in H1 2014). The 20 most active markets are dominated by the gateway North American cities. Australian cities, notably Sydney, have also been moving steadily up the ranking. Direct Commercial Real Estate Investment Volumes in Top 20 Cities, H London New York Tokyo Paris Los Angeles Washington DC Sydney San Francisco Boston Chicago Singapore Shanghai Dallas Toronto Philadelphia Melbourne Stockholm Silicon Valley Seoul Hong Kong Americas EMEA Asia Pacific US$ billions COPYRIGHT JONES LANG LASALLE IP, INC All Rights Reserved 10

11 JLL increases 2014 forecast to US$700 billion as transactional activity broadens Given the significant growth in transaction volumes recorded in the Americas and Europe in particular, as well as a large transaction pipeline, JLL has raised its full-year 2014 forecasts to US$700 billion from US$650 billion. At the global level, volumes are currently running 28% ahead of the 2013 pace; a full-year outcome of US$700 billion would represent a 19% increase on 2013 volumes of US$588 billion. Much is dependent on the final quarter when 30%-35% of all transactions for the year take place, but given the level of activity and deals in the pipeline, an upward revision is justified. Strongest uplift expected in the U.S. As we move further along the cycle, the U.S. is expected to attract greater investment activity across a larger number of geographies, sectors and asset classes. Both local and overseas investors are taking note of the improving occupational markets and are increasingly trading in both primary and secondary cities. With the added support of a highly favourable lending environment, we are projecting full-year 2014 volumes in the Americas to be up 25% on 2013 levels. In Europe, investment volumes are expected to be 15% higher (in US$ terms), while a strong second half of the year in Asia Pacific could push volumes in this region to another record high. Direct Commercial Real Estate Investment, US$ billions (F) 20% % 15% % Americas EMEA Asia Pacific Global XX% Projected Change COPYRIGHT JONES LANG LASALLE IP, INC All Rights Reserved 11

12 Capital Values and Yields The weight of demand continues to compress prime yields across the world s major office markets Core yields have defied expectations and continued to compress, often to new lows: Robust investor demand has pushed down yields during Q2 in several U.S. cities notably Chicago (-20 bps), Boston (-20 bps), New York (-10 bps) and Los Angeles (-10 bps). Prime yields were stable in Q2 in the dominant European investment locations such as London, Paris, Stockholm and the German Big 5 cities, but have continued to move in elsewhere in the region, notably in Brussels (-5 bps) and recovering markets such as Madrid (-25 bps). The yield trend is, in general, flat in most Asia Pacific markets, although yields have compressed in Tokyo (-10 bps) and Sydney (-25 bps) on the back of very strong investor demand. 7% capital appreciation predicted for 2014 Capital values on prime assets across 25 major markets accelerated to 8.8% year-on-year in Q2, the strongest for two years. Expectations for full-year 2014 have been upgraded to 7%, with Tokyo projected to show the highest growth at close to 20%. Large increases are also expected for the U.S. gateway cities, as well as Madrid and Mexico City. By contrast, Moscow and Sao Paulo are likely to see further falls in office capital values during Prime Offices Annualised Capital Value Change, 25 Major Office Locations, Q Q % pa % % % 8.8% 5 3.2% 0 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Unweighted average of 25 major office markets across the globe COPYRIGHT JONES LANG LASALLE IP, INC All Rights Reserved 12

13 Prime Office Yield Trends, Q Q Americas Europe Asia Pacific Brussels Frankfurt London Madrid Moscow Paris Stockholm Boston Chicago Los Angeles New York San Francisco Toronto Washington DC Sao Paulo Mexico City Beijing Hong Kong Mumbai Seoul Shanghai Singapore Q Q Sydney Tokyo Q Q Basis point change *Across 25 major office markets. Prime Offices Capital Value Clock, Q v Q Hong Kong Sydney Toronto Boston, Chicago New York, Los Angeles, Stockholm San Francisco, Houston, Berlin Mexico City, Frankfurt Moscow Dallas, Singapore London Capital Value growth slowing Capital Value growth accelerating Q ` Toronto, Mexico City Washington DC, Amsterdam Moscow Sao Paulo, Paris Sydney, Singapore Berlin Shanghai New York, Los Angeles Boston, Chicago San Francisco Houston, Frankfurt Dallas Capital Values falling Capital Values bottoming out London Milan Seoul Beijing Tokyo Stockholm Capital Value growth slowing Capital Value growth accelerating Q Hong Kong Washington DC Capital Values falling Capital Values bottoming out Sao Paulo Seoul, Tokyo Mumbai Brussels Shanghai Madrid Americas EMEA Asia Pacific Mumbai, Beijing Brussels Madrid Amsterdam Paris Milan Based on notional capital values for Grade A space in CBD or equivalent. U.S. positions relate to the overall market. COPYRIGHT JONES LANG LASALLE IP, INC All Rights Reserved 13

14 Prime Offices Capital Value Change, Q Q San Francisco Dubai Boston Madrid New York Chicago Stockholm London Tokyo Los Angeles Sydney Paris Mexico City Washington DC Shanghai Frankfurt Seoul Singapore Toronto Brussels Hong Kong Mumbai Beijing Sao Paulo Moscow Americas EMEA Asia Pacific % change Notional capital values based on rents and yields for Grade A space in CBD or equivalent. In local currency. Prime Offices Rental Value Change, Q Q Singapore Mexico City San Francisco Dubai London Boston Tokyo Los Angeles Toronto Chicago Shanghai New York Frankfurt Stockholm Sydney Madrid Hong Kong Beijing Mumbai Brussels Washington DC Seoul Paris Moscow Sao Paulo Americas EMEA Asia Pacific % change Based on rents for Grade A space in CBD or equivalent. In local currency. COPYRIGHT JONES LANG LASALLE IP, INC All Rights Reserved 14

15 Corporate Occupiers Occupational activity increasing steadily Activity continues to edge upwards in occupational markets across the globe. Despite signs of a slight softening in corporate sentiment in response to recent geopolitical instability, take up of space has improved fractionally in key markets across Asia Pacific, the Americas and EMEA. Workplace as a driver of productivity and talent retention While cost and space efficiency remain important drivers of corporate real estate strategies across sectors and markets, signs of a subtle change are appearing. There is growing evidence of corporate occupiers using the workplace as a tool to attract and retain talent and drive greater productivity from human capital as well as physical real estate. In the U.S. there are indications of a plateau in the space density trend, and across international markets the emergence of the Millenials is beginning to impact upon workplace design and portfolio location. While workplace innovation is high on the agenda, many occupiers are also exploring structural savings through lower-cost offshore and nearshore hubs, with some looking to raise capital from asset sales in rising investment markets. Technology sector boosts leasing activity in key markets Financial services occupiers are demonstrating greater activity in some markets such as London, although major international banks remain focused on portfolio consolidation and driving better workplace productivity. Demand from the technology sector continues to grow, propelling leasing activity in major markets including Silicon Valley, San Francisco and several across Asia Pacific. Life Sciences occupiers have also been particularly active in the midst of a substantial number of mergers and acquisitions within the sector and their associated portfolio churn. Strong growth in U.S. net absorption In the U.S. a brightening employment picture has driven a 6.2% jump in leasing activity over the first quarter, with large transactions returning to the markets and helping to fuel a 63% year-on-year leap in net absorption. For many office occupiers in the U.S., rental increases are now having an impact across portfolios, with industrial assets also facing rising costs amid strong demand and portfolio realignment. Asia Pacific improving, but remains patchy Sentiment is improving across the board in Asia, with demand for space increasing on average in most markets. Yet the depth of demand remains patchy with activity unevenly spread and varying by city, submarket and asset type. Singapore, Tokyo and Seoul are seeing strong levels of activity and rising rents are posing challenges for costconscious occupiers. Manila also stands out as a market in demand from international corporates, with a growing number of BPO entrants to the Philippines. Demand in Australia remains weak having recorded negative net absorption across all CBDs in five out of the past six quarters. Paris and London bolster growth in Europe Europe continues to see variation between markets but occupiers are showing an increasing willingness to transact across the region. Paris has witnessed large deals return to the market, recording a 25% quarterly rise in leasing transactions. London has maintained its strong momentum, while Germany is still experiencing broad-based demand for space. However, Moscow has seen more subdued activity as a result of growth downgrades and the continuing geopolitical tensions over Ukraine. Once again the impact of such tensions remains the biggest risk factor to sentiment, investment and growth in the occupational market. COPYRIGHT JONES LANG LASALLE IP, INC All Rights Reserved 15

16 Global Office Market Conditions Matrix*, Market Market MARKET Market Chicago Brussels Beijing Los Angeles Frankfurt Hong Kong New York London West End Mumbai San Francisco Madrid Shanghai (Pudong) Toronto Moscow Singapore Washington DC Paris Sydney Mexico City Stockholm Tokyo Sao Paulo Dubai Tenant Favourable Neutral Market Landlord Favourable * Relates to conditions in the overall office market of a city. Conditions for prime CBD space may differ from the above. COPYRIGHT JONES LANG LASALLE IP, INC All Rights Reserved 16

17 Global Real Estate Health Monitor Economy Real Estate Investment Markets Real Estate Occupier Markets OECD Leading Indicator City Investment Volumes Capital Value Change National GDP Prime Yield Yield Gap Rental Change Net Absorption Vacancy Rate Supply Pipeline Dubai 4.6% na 567% 23.1% 7.3% na 8.1% na 25.0% 17.3% Frankfurt 1.8% % 4.0% 4.7% % 0.7% 11.4% 3.5% Hong Kong 2.7% na -51% 0.6% 2.9% % -0.4% 4.4% 3.8% London 3.2% % 14.9% 3.8% % 1.6% 5.5% 4.6% Moscow 0.2% % -7.0% 9.0% % 5.6% 14.8% 13.8% Mumbai 4.5% % 0.4% 10.1% % 7.5% 21.9% 18.3% New York 1.5% % 19.2% 4.0% % 2.0% 10.6% 1.2% Paris 0.6% % 8.8% 4.0% % -0.7% 7.5% 3.9% Sao Paulo 1.0% % -6.1% 8.5% na -11.3% 4.0% 20.5% 27.7% Shanghai 7.4% % 4.2% 5.9% % 11.2% 11.9% 30.3% Singapore 3.6% na 24% 2.1% 3.9% % 2.4% 5.8% 4.4% Sydney 3.1% % 10.9% 6.4% % 1.3% 10.5% 3.0% Tokyo 1.1% % 14.4% 3.5% % 5.4% 3.7% 8.0% Real estate data as at end Q Definitions and Sources National GDP: Change in Real GDP. National Projection, Source: Oxford Economics OECD Leading Indicator: Composite Leading Indicator. Change in Index. Latest Month. Source: OECD City Investment Volumes: Direct Commercial Real Estate Volumes. Metro Area Data. Rolling Annual Change. Source: JLL Capital Value Change: Notional Prime Office Capital Values. Year-on-Year Change. Latest Quarter. Source: JLL Prime Yield: Indicative Yield on Prime/Grade A Offices. Latest Quarter. Source: JLL Yield Gap: Basis Points that Prime Office Yields are above or below 10-year Government Bond Yields. Latest Quarter. Source: JLL, Datastream Rental Change: Prime Office Rents. Year-on-Year Change. Latest Quarter. Source: JLL Net Absorption: Annual Net Absorption as % of Occupied Office Stock. Rolling Annual. Source: JLL Vacancy Rate: Metro Area Office Vacancy Rate. Latest Quarter. Source: JLL Supply Pipeline: Metro Area Office Completions ( ) as % of Existing Stock. Source: JLL COPYRIGHT JONES LANG LASALLE IP, INC All Rights Reserved 17

18 Office Markets Office Demand Dynamics Continued signs of improvement, but leasing activity still uneven The second quarter has seen further signs of improvement in the office leasing markets, although activity has remained patchy. Global office leasing volumes in Q2 were up 5% year-on-year to reach their highest level for two and a half years. The strongest recovery has been recorded in Asia Pacific where volumes are 20% higher than a year ago. Europe is up 11% year-on-year, with its two largest markets London and Paris - performing robustly. Gross leasing activity in the U.S. continued to be weaker than expected in Q2, but this belies strengthening market fundamentals and higher net absorption. While leasing volumes are steadily recovering and occupier sentiment is notably improved, we have not yet seen a substantial breakthrough in demand levels, and full-year 2014 volumes are unlikely to be more than 5% higher than in However, stronger economic growth, improving business performance and elevated M&A activity all point to a healthier leasing market in Office Leasing Volumes, 2013 v 2014 U.S. Europe Asia Pacific Global FY % -5% -11% +1% FY % ~ 5% 15-20% ~ 5% Flat gross leasing trend in United States belies robust market fundamentals H leasing volumes in the United States were below expectations, down about 3% from H However, this in part may reflect harsh early-year weather and related economic stumble, and is inconsistent with other fundamentals trends such as net absorption, which is at its highest level of the current recovery. Momentum is building and overall leasing activity in Q2 increased by 6.2% on the first quarter; moreover, large-space leasing deals have returned after a two-quarter lull. We expect further strengthening of leasing activity in the second half of the year to the point where the full-year volume is likely to be slightly higher than COPYRIGHT JONES LANG LASALLE IP, INC All Rights Reserved 18

19 Asia Pacific gross leasing volumes up 20% year-on-year Sentiment among Asia Pacific corporates continues to improve compared to Gross leasing volumes in the region have risen by 20% year-on-year, largely as a result of relocations and pre-commitments to future projects. However, the increase in gross leasing activity has been uneven: Tokyo and Seoul have seen strengthening pre-leasing activity. Southeast Asia remains very active, especially the Philippines, where companies are moving beyond callcentre activities. Demand in China has been dominated by domestic firms and select MNCs (such as international retailers). Recent political activity in Thailand, India and Indonesia has given some companies pause for thought. Leasing market conditions in Australia have remained segmented, with technology and financial services becoming more active, while the commodity and public sectors are still weak. The technology sector is expanding across the Asia Pacific region. The newer players LinkedIn, Twitter, Google are all taking space, and in many cases backfilling the space left by the financial sector. We expect full-year Asia Pacific net absorption and gross leasing activity to grow by 15%-20% this year as corporate confidence strengthens. European office leasing activity shows encouraging signs European office leasing volumes in Q2 grew by 18% on Q and were 11% up on Q2 last year: In Paris, leasing activity has increased by 25%, making it the city s best second quarter since London has maintained its strong momentum with gross leasing rising 11%. Activity in Germany remains healthy and Stockholm had a record quarter, while activity also increased notably in Brussels and Milan. Quarterly performance in the CEE was driven by robust activity in Budapest and Warsaw, but volumes in Moscow and Prague continued to be subdued. Stronger economic activity and employment growth are expected to fuel expansionary demand in Europe. In the short term, however, unemployment will remain high and occupiers are likely to remain cost-conscious. The preference for modern space to drive productivity and efficiency remains, and a lack of such space in some markets has constrained activity. The high volumes of pre-leasing for space completing this year (and into next year) demonstrates the willingness of occupiers to commit to modern space. Gross leasing volumes are forecast to increase by around 5% in 2014 and by another 5% in COPYRIGHT JONES LANG LASALLE IP, INC All Rights Reserved 19

20 Global Office Demand Net Absorption Trends, millions sq m Projection markets in Europe; 25 markets in Asia Pacific; 44 markets in the U.S. Asia relates to Grade A only. COPYRIGHT JONES LANG LASALLE IP, INC All Rights Reserved 20

21 Office Supply Trends New construction continues to rise The uptick in new construction has continued into the second quarter of 2014 as developer confidence builds. Globally, office completions for 2015 are likely to be 25% higher than 2014, although levels are still only just above the historic norm. Construction up 38% in the United States Construction volumes in the U.S. are up by more than one-third on year-end 2013, led by a handful of locations, most notably Houston. High construction-to-inventory ratios are also features of Silicon Valley, Austin and San Francisco. Pre-leasing levels are high at about 50%-70%. Canada is seeing a burgeoning supply pipeline. In its four primary office markets Toronto, Montreal, Calgary and Vancouver 25 projects topping 1.3 million square metres will be added to the CBD inventory over the next four years. Supply wave posing challenges to Latin American office markets A majority of Latin America s largest office markets continue to experience large volumes of new office deliveries, especially Mexico City, Sao Paulo and Bogota. Mexico City is notable for its continuing ability to counter this supply cycle with consistently impressive absorption; by contrast, levels of absorption in Sao Paulo and to a lesser extent Bogota are not keeping pace with new construction. A temporary lull in new deliveries in Asia Pacific During Q2 2014, Grade-A regional stock additions were down 48% year-on-year, with around half of the total in India. Full-year 2014 deliveries across Asia Pacific are likely to be at their lowest since 2006, although 2015 is forecast to see a sharp 38% uplift in completions. Construction rising in Europe Office completions in Europe continued to increase in Q2, up by 76% on Q As a result, H levels are now almost double those of H Completion volumes were high in Moscow and London, delivering over 500,000 square metres combined. Warsaw has also continued to see high new supply volumes. Full-year 2014 completions in Europe, at close to 5 million square metres, will be 20% higher than 2013 and in line with the 10-year average. A further 5 million square metres is projected to be delivered in COPYRIGHT JONES LANG LASALLE IP, INC All Rights Reserved 21

22 Global Office Completions, millions sq m Average U.S. Europe Asia Pacific (F) 2015 (F) 24 markets in Europe; 25 markets in Asia Pacific; 44 markets in the U.S. Asia relates to Grade A only. Office Supply Pipeline Major Markets, Shanghai Sao Paulo Mexico City Mumbai Dubai Moscow Tokyo Beijing London Singapore San Francisco Paris Hong Kong Frankfurt Seoul Sydney Toronto Stockholm Boston Brussels Washington DC Madrid New York Los Angeles Chicago Completions as % of existing stock Covers all office submarkets in each city. Tokyo CBD - 5 kus COPYRIGHT JONES LANG LASALLE IP, INC All Rights Reserved 22

23 High structural vacancy rates persist The global office vacancy rate (across 98 markets) has once again remained within the 13%-13.5% range at 13.1% in Q Rates are now unlikely to fall below the 13% threshold before the end of the year. U.S. Vacancy: Vacancy is falling fast in the United States which, at 16.3%, is down by 70 basis points from last year. Tenants are facing tight market conditions in urban Grade- A space environments; suburban markets are recovering more slowly. The lowest vacancy is in New York, San Francisco and Portland at around 10.5%; the highest is in Detroit at 26%. Asia Pacific Vacancy: At 11.5%, the regional vacancy has fallen to its lowest level in more than a year. Most major markets, including CBD Tokyo, Beijing, Hong Kong and Singapore are registering single-digit vacancy rates. The notable exceptions include the Shanghai decentralised market and most cities in India and Australia. Europe Vacancy: The European office vacancy rate has remained unchanged at 9.7% for six consecutive quarters, and is unlikely to move more than 10 basis points during the remainder of the year. London maintains Europe s lowest vacancy rate at 5.5%. Office Vacancy Rates in Major Markets, Q Global 13.1% % 25 Americas 15.5% Europe 9.7% Asia Pacific 11.5% Quarterly movement Increased Decreased 0 Stable Toronto New York San Francisco Mexico City Los Angeles Washington DC Chicago Boston Sao Paolo London Paris Stockholm Brussels Frankfurt Madrid Moscow Tokyo CBD Beijing Hong Kong Singapore Seoul Sydney Shanghai Mumbai Regional vacancy rates based on 49 markets in the Americas, 24 markets in Europe and 24 markets in Asia Pacific. Covers all office submarkets in each city. All grades except Asia and Latin America (Grade A only). Tokyo relates to CBD 5 kus. COPYRIGHT JONES LANG LASALLE IP, INC All Rights Reserved 23

24 Office Rental Trends Steady office rental growth Rental growth has continued in all three global regions. Asking rents in the U.S. have grown by 2.5% year-on-year, which is slower than in previous quarters, and has mainly been constrained by limited high-quality space options. Net effective rental growth in Asia Pacific increased by 0.9% over the second quarter (similar to Q1), while annual rental change on prime assets in Europe has edged up to 1%. San Francisco (+5.3%), Singapore (+4.6%) and Boston (+2.6%) have shown the strongest uplifts during Q2. Meanwhile, Washington DC and Sao Paulo continue to register declines. Momentum to build in H Rents on prime assets across 25 major markets are currently growing at close to 3% per year, and are expected to accelerate above 4% by end Singapore is predicted to top the rental growth league table in 2014, followed by Dubai, London and Tokyo. The 5%- 10% growth range is also likely to include several U.S. cities New York, San Francisco and Boston as well as Mexico City and Beijing. Prime Offices Rental Change, % Rental change (y-o-y %) % 4.2% % 1.5% Prime office rental growth: unweighted average of 25 major markets. Source: JLL, April 2014 Forecasts signal higher rents in the United States Around two-thirds of U.S. markets tracked by JLL reported increases in asking rents in Q2, far higher than in previous quarters. In most markets, increases were marginal, although supply-constrained and tech-heavy markets like San Francisco, Silicon Valley and Portland are registering stronger growth. Double-digit rental growth is being recorded in several niche submarkets for example, San Francisco s South Financial District, New York s creative hub in Chelsea and Houston s Energy Corridor. COPYRIGHT JONES LANG LASALLE IP, INC All Rights Reserved 24

25 A gap of another months until the next cycle of development delivery in late 2015 will yield continued market tightening and consistent rental growth exceeding 5% around the U.S. in Steady rental growth in Europe Prime office rents have continued to increase in Europe, though the pace has been slightly slower than at the beginning of the year. The European Office Index rose by 0.4%, compared with 1.1% in Q Of the 24 Index markets, three have seen quarterly rental increases, with Dublin (+7.1%) again leading; Munich rents (+3.2%) have climbed to their highest levels since the early 1990s. Positive news also came from Spain, where Madrid (+1%) has witnessed its first increase since Q Europe s prime rents are forecast to continue to rise, given the low levels of high-quality space. From 2015, expansionary demand should support further rental growth, with the strongest uplifts projected for London and the Nordics. Rents in Southern Europe, notably Madrid, will also maintain their recovery. The preference for quality space in good locations will create a performance gap between Grade A offices and the rest. Asia Pacific net effective rents edge up Net effective rents increased in over half of Asia Pacific markets in Q2 2014, with average quarterly growth of 0.9% (similar to Q1). Singapore (+4.6%) continued to see the strongest quarterly uplift while growth improved in Beijing (+2.5%), with vacancy edging lower in both markets. Quarterly growth remained steady in Tokyo (+2%), and small rental increases were seen in Hong Kong and Shanghai. Rents in Jakarta fell for the first time since Q with business expansion put on hold due to recent elections. Effective rents have held steady in Sydney and Melbourne, but have decreased in other Australian cities due to limited demand. Prime Offices Rental Clock, Q v Q Stockholm Berlin, Moscow Houston San Francisco Toronto Amsterdam Rental Value growth slowing Mexico City Rental Value Dallas, Frankfurt growth accelerating London Mumbai, Boston Tokyo New York Istanbul, Dubai Los Angeles, Seoul, Shanghai Q Chicago Hong Kong Singapore Brussels Rental Values falling Rental Values bottoming out Sao Paulo Paris Johannesburg Milan Berlin Frankfurt Houston San Francisco Dallas Beijing London New York, Stockholm Tokyo Sydney Boston Los Angeles, Mumbai Washington DC Singapore Istanbul, Beijing Madrid Americas EMEA Asia Pacific Mexico City Moscow Shanghai Rental Value growth slowing Chicago, Dubai Seoul Rental Value growth accelerating Q Washington DC Madrid, Milan Paris, Brussels Hong Kong Sydney Amsterdam Toronto Johannesburg Rental Values falling Rental Values bottoming out Sao Paulo Based on rents for Grade A space in CBD or equivalent. U.S. positions relate to the overall market COPYRIGHT JONES LANG LASALLE IP, INC All Rights Reserved 25

26 Retail Markets Revival, polarisation and consolidation Retail markets in the U.S. and Europe are continuing their steady recoveries despite ongoing structural shifts in the retail industry. Polarisation remains pronounced and many mid-priced retailers are being squeezed. Retailer consolidation will continue to be a trend this year with M&A activity likely to tick upwards as retailers respond to changes in consumer demand. In Asia, international retailers are looking for growth opportunities although some caution was evident in the second quarter. U.S. market progresses despite structural challenges The U.S. retail market has maintained its gradual revival, with the overall vacancy rate decreasing 10 basis points during the quarter to 6.4%. Net absorption was more than double new deliveries and rents inched up 1.2% in Q2. One significant and positive for the market is that new supply remains at historically very low levels, and the little supply that is under way now consists mainly of big-box single-tenant stores, in large part already leased to anchor discounters. Growing interest in Europe s recovery markets Similarly, retail rents in Europe rose by 1.2% in Q2, despite persistently high unemployment and an overhang of household debt. The strongest rental growth was recorded in Athens (+15%), Madrid (+10%), Barcelona (+6.6%) and Milan (+4.3%), emphasising returning retailer interest in Europe s recovering markets. Likewise, Oslo (+10%) and Istanbul (+6.7%) performed well. A rise in new shopping centre deliveries in Europe 14.1 million square metres of new shopping centre space will be completed across Europe during 2014 and 2015 highlighting continued activity in shopping centre development in the region. However, the majority of the new schemes are being built in Russia and Turkey as they play catch up with others across the region. Russia will have the largest shopping centre stock in Europe by In Western Europe, more favourable market conditions will not necessarily translate into a wave of new retail development as per previous periods of economic recovery. Structural change is still playing out, retail is being redefined and developers will be cautious, as will lenders on new developments. Mixed retailer demand in Asia Pacific China continues to witness healthy demand supported by fast-fashion retailers and F&B operators, but with slow expansion by luxury brands. In Hong Kong, demand has remained strong in core areas. Elsewhere in Asia Pacific, retailers have been generally more discerning about expansion across Southeast Asia, with the notable exception of Manila, while demand in India has been limited by a lack of quality mall space and ongoing regulatory challenges for foreign retailers. Leasing activity in Australia is stable, although more active for international fashion brands. World s largest mall announced in Dubai One of the most eye-catching announcements over the past quarter has been that of the Mall of the World in Dubai a new 750,000 square metre development by Dubai Properties Group. The Mall of the World forms the centrepiece of a larger project covering 4.5 square kilometres; a large part of this site will be encased by a massive dome that can be opened during the winter months. COPYRIGHT JONES LANG LASALLE IP, INC All Rights Reserved 26

27 Prime Retail Rental Clock, Q Moscow Paris, Hong Kong, Singapore Berlin, Beijing Americas EMEA Asia Pacific London Rental Value growth slowing Rental Values falling Tokyo Miami Rental Value growth accelerating Rental Values bottoming out Dubai, Mumbai, San Francisco, Houston Delhi New York, Boston, Washington DC Shanghai Madrid, Milan, Los Angeles Chicago Sydney Prime Industrial Rental Clock, Q Singapore Frankfurt Dallas, Shanghai Los Angeles Tokyo, Philadelphia Chicago, New York, San Francisco London Atlanta, Houston Rental Value growth slowing Rental Value growth accelerating Rental Values falling Rental Values bottoming out Boston Beijing, Hong Kong Amsterdam, Paris, Madrid Warsaw Sydney Americas EMEA Asia Pacific Relates to prime space. U.S. positions relate to the overall market COPYRIGHT JONES LANG LASALLE IP, INC All Rights Reserved 27

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