Natural Gas: A Game-Changer for Trucking or Just a Passing Fad?

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1 Natural Gas: A Game-Changer for Trucking or Just a Passing Fad? Glen Kedzie, Vice President Energy & Environmental Counsel American Trucking Associations

2 ATA is Fuel and Technology Neutral

3 81 years ago in 1933, Mack introduced the first diesel truck. Until this point, gasoline engines powered the trucking industry but cheaper diesel fuel, with its high torque and energy output, was a clear winner. By the end of World War II, diesel dominated trucking and continues to this day. Diesel = Trucking

4 Trucks Use a Lot of Fuel In 2013, trucking consumed 52.7 billion gallons of fuel 37.7 billion gallons of diesel (72%) 15.1 billion gallons of gasoline (28%)

5 On-Highway Diesel Fuel Prices $4.50 $4.00 $3.50 $3.00 $2.50 $2.00 $1.50 $1.00 $0.50 $0.00 $3.97 $3.92 $3.80 $3.84 $2.99 $2.88 $2.71 $2.41 $2.46 $1.81 $1.51 $1.41 $1.40 $ Sources: U.S. Department of Energy & ATA

6 On-Highway Diesel Fuel Bill Annual diesel costs were $87 billion (2009); $109 billion (2010); $143 billion (2011); $156 billion (2012); $148 billion (2013) Total 2013 fuel bill was $200+ billion 1 diesel increase = $350 - $375 million in added fuel costs to industry

7 ATRI s Carrier Operational Costs Per Mile: Fuel Logs in at 39%! Motor Carrier Costs Vehicle-based Fuel Costs $0.633 $0.405 $0.486 $0.590 $0.641 Truck/Trailer Lease or Purchase Payments $0.213 $0.257 $0.184 $0.189 $0.174 Repair & Maintenance $0.103 $0.123 $0.124 $0.152 $0.138 Truck Insurance Premiums $0.055 $0.054 $0.059 $0.067 $0.063 Permits and Licenses $0.016 $0.029 $0.040 $0.038 $0.022 Tires $0.030 $0.029 $0.035 $0.042 $0.044 Tolls $0.024 $0.024 $0.012 $0.017 $0.019 Driver-based Driver Wages $0.435 $0.403 $0.446 $0.460 $0.417 Driver Benefits $0.144 $0.128 $0.162 $0.151 $0.116 TOTAL $1.653 $1.451 $1.548 $1.706 $1.633

8 Is Natural Gas a Viable Fuel Option for Trucking?

9 Administration Supports Increased Use of Natural Gas President noted support in his State of the Union Address Has raised ire of environmental groups Support evidenced by Administration s refusal to advance several anti-natural gas regulatory initiatives

10 Trucking is Ground Zero for Natural Gas Introduction Original plan was to advance natural gas in the light-duty sector first (i.e., GGE measurements) Easier to develop equipment and infrastructure builds for longer mileage ranges, repetitive transportation routes, hub-spoke trucking business models, etc. Trucking to establish base in marketplace; light-duty to follow

11 MORE GOOD NEWS IS WTI $/Barrel $97.91 $98.67 $90.92 NG $/MCF $10.31 $11.23 $ barrel oil = 42 gallons = 9+ gallons of diesel fuel 1 MCF natural gas = 1000 ft. 3 = 1 million BTU s = 7.2 DGEs

12 Natural Gas is Today s Best Alt-Fuel for Trucking

13 Top 10 Reasons Why Vast, domestic supplies Far cheaper than diesel on DGE basis Long-term pricing forecasts remain low Greater certainty in fuel purchasing Attractive to green shippers Product lines keep expanding Demand for vehicles on the rise Infrastructure build-out continues Potential for quick ROI Lower emissions (CO2, NOx, PM)

14 Top 10 Reasons Why Not equipment/fet costs maintenance facility retrofit costs private infrastructure costs Diesel infrastructure already exists Fuel surcharges and truck efficiency standards closing pricing gap Difficult achieving ROI s for lower-mile operations No federal incentives (but some states do) Vehicle weight penalties (some states have addressed) No secondary markets established Anti-fracking movement, court activity, groundwater contamination, water demands, seismic activity, and how exportation may impact domestic pricing remain unresolved

15 Natural Gas Primer Fossil fuel formed when layers of buried plants/animals are exposed to intense heat/pressure over 1000 s of years Colorless/odorless hydrocarbon mixture Simplest hydrocarbon is methane which is used as transportation fuel Other hydrocarbons include ethane, propane, and butane Impurities removed in processing Natural gas found by itself or in association with oil Further west in U.S., the more oil found in wells

16 Typical Natural Gas Composition

17 Natural Gas Not Only Source of Methane

18 How Does Hydraulic Fracturing Work?

19 Natural Gas Dispensed in Two Forms Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) - Delivered by local gas distribution systems at low pressure - Compressed into vehicles onboard storage cylinders at 3600 psi - Preferred for shorter hauls Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) - Becomes -260 F, - Stored in liquid form on-board - Vaporized before enters cylinder - Preferred for heavy-duty longer hauls due to energy density/space requirements

20 Energy Content of Fuels Vary Gasoline Diesel CNG LNG Ethanol Propane Biodiesel 115,400 BTU/gal 128,700 BTU/gal 960 BTU/cubic foot 82,644 BTU/gal 75,700 BTU/gal 83,500 BTU/gal 117,093 BTU/gal

21 Natural Gas Engine Efficiency Losses Diesel engines are exceptionally efficient Natgas spark ignition engines experience roughly 15% efficiency losses Natgas compression ignition engines less

22 Natural Gas Use in Transportation is Not a New Concept

23 First U.S. Well Dug in 1821 William Hart dug first well to produce natural gas in U.S. in western NY feet deep, excavated with shovels by hand, and pipeline was hollowed-out logs sealed with tar and rags.

24 The 1920 s Cutting Edge Car

25 Further Advances in the 1930 s

26 1980 s Chinese Natural Gas Vehicles

27 To the Present

28 No Shortage of Natural Gas in U.S.

29 U.S. Tops World in Energy Production #1 producer of natural gas in the world since 2010 surpassing Russia #1 producer of oil in the world this year surpassing Saudi Arabia

30

31

32 U.S. Natural Gas Production In 2011, about 7.85 trillion cubic feet (tcf) of dry natural gas was produced directly from shale deposits in the U.S.

33 Put Another Way

34 How Emissions Compare? CNG LNG NOx PM GHG

35 What About Fueling Infrastructure?

36 U.S. CNG Data Existing Planned Current 1, Current Percent Public 52%

37 U.S. LNG Data Existing Planned Current Current Percent Public 58%

38 What About Pricing?

39

40 Heavy-Duty Fuel Demand Through 2040

41 National Average Fuel Prices (July 1-July 15, 2014) Fuel Biodiesel (B20) Biodiesel (B99-B100) Electricity Ethanol (E85) Price $3.98/gallon $4.24/gallon $0.12/kWh $3.23/gallon Natural Gas (CNG) $2.17/GGE ($2.45/DGE) Propane $3.07/gallon Gasoline $3.70/gallon (-80%) Diesel $3.91/gallon (-60%)

42

43 Diesel & Natural Gas Fuel Pricing Through 2040

44 Every Major Truck Manufacturer Offers Natural Gas Trucks

45 Projected Class 8 Market Penetration Rates

46 Projected Class 8 Market Penetration Rates Beyond 2017

47 2014 Vehicle Sales Below Original Projections North American new, heavy-truck sales were forecast to hit as high as 16,000 in 2014 On target to sell 10,480 8,730 sold in production up 20% over 2013

48 Natural Gas Important to 25+ States Onshore Operations Texas Colorado Louisiana Oklahoma New Mexico Arkansas Ohio Utah West Virginia Pennsylvania Kentucky Kansas North Dakota South Dakota California Montana Wyoming Mississippi Alaska Potential Operations Nevada California North Carolina New York Virginia Maryland Providers of Materials Wisconsin (Sand) Others Haulers OEMs Note: fracking-associated hauls provide significant economic boon for tank truck industry ( 2000 hauls per fracked well)

49 Issues for States Fracking bans* Vehicle weight exemptions* State tax incentives and grants* Truck safety concerns* Road degradation Taxation of natural gas*

50 Fracking Bans

51 State-by- State Threats

52 Opposition Well-Funded Organization Natural Resources Defense Council Sierra Club Total Budget $105 million $105 million Our northeast office made fracking its signature issue Earth Justice IRS Filing Food and Water Watch Earth Justice League of Conservation Voters (501c4) $11.5 million $53 million $11 million There s no better time than now to urge your legislator to tighten regulations on fracking operations. Michigan League of Conservation Voters, 10/21/13

53 Scope of Challenge Americans oppose fracking 49% to 44%. An 11 point swing for opponents since March Opposition to fracking in the Midwest spiked 16 points between March and September. Largest opposition comes from 18 to 29 year olds who oppose fracking 54% to 40%. Losing the middle. Opposition among Independent voters swung 11 points to 45% to 49%. Losing Republicans. Opposition to fracking among Republican voters nationally increased 12 points between March and September. * Pew Research Energy Poll Findings

54 State Natural Gas Truck Weight Exemptions Fueling systems weigh more than diesel counterparts Working on federal weight legislation Success on weight increases largely in states Highest state weight tolerance is 2000 lbs.

55

56 State Tax Incentives/Grants As with weight exemptions, activities in Congress seeking federal incentives for vehicles and infrastructure continue but no affirmative progress to date Activities more promising at state level

57 Trucking Safety Concerns

58 CEA Truck Safety Task Force Report

59 Goals To promote road and transportation safety in oil and gas fields To show good-faith effort to help lower incidents from oil field traffic Don t want to be Achilles Heel of energy boon

60 Recommendations For fleets For energy producers For the public

61 Natural Gas State Tax Issues No uniformity in how states currently tax CNG and LNG Some states exempt CNG/LNG Others tax CNG but not LNG Others don t account for lesser energy content of CNG and LNG when taxing Creates complications for tax administration Potential overreaction on enforcement aspects

62 Natural Gas State Tax Issues CNG taxed on a GGE (18.3 /gallon) level since 1994 No national tax standard for LNG sales (24.3 /gallon currently) 1.7 gallons LNG = energy content of 1 diesel gallon (41.3 /gallon tax/dge) Current tax inequality between diesel/lng National Conference of Weights & Measures voted down DGE standard for CNG/LNG July 16 ATA supports taxing fuels same as fuels they are replacing Measurement hopefully leads to more uniform state taxation

63 Conclusion Natural gas is viable fuel option May not work for every fleet Many market entry barriers, most of which will likely be resolved over time Technology advancements continue Testing will validate or invalidate whether a natural gas truck will fit your fleet needs

64

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