Global Synthesis and Observations Panel: GSOP activities and OOPC coordination. Co-chairs Keith Haines Tong Lee

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1 Global Synthesis and Observations Panel: GSOP activities and OOPC coordination Co-chairs Keith Haines Tong Lee

2 Global Synthesis and Observations Panel (GSOP) Major activities over the past year (1) Management activities Tony Lee new co-chair (replacing Bernadette Sloyen) Major reshuffle of panel members New: Palmer, Yu, Balmaseda, Barnier, Mathieu, Domingues Revised ToR submitted to SSG (Action item 23 from SSG18) Observations activities GO-SHIP Activities sections completed in 2011, 6 planned for 2012 Project coordinator post needed: UNESCO/OOPC loss of US support, so pursuing coordinator through JCOMMOPS, funds identified User survey undertaken at US request, Report available OOPC Deep Ocean Observing Strategy Strategy document under active development Matt Palmer from GSOP involved for climate modelling expertise First XBT Science Workshop: Building a Multi-Decadal Upper Ocean Temperature Record, Melbourne 7-8 July 2011 Report awaited Contributions to Action plan: WCRP Research Activities on Surface Fluxes, Jan 2012

3 GO-SHIP

4 Global Synthesis and Observations Panel (GSOP) Major activities over the past year (2) Synthesis activities GSOP-5 panel meeting Grenoble, May 2011 Need for consolidated synthesis comparisons Need of external expertise for evaluation of syntheses Strong interest from Air-sea flux community => 2012 Workshop proposal IFSOO and documentation of role of ocean syntheses Metrics from syntheses Input data quality and metadata requirements for syntheses GODAE OceanView-GSOP Workshop on Observing System Evaluation and Inter-Comparison, June 2011: Santa Cruz Operational Centre initiative; Coordinated data withholding experiments Plan for coordinated and sustained products comparisons Included Ocean Climate Metrics from operational/synthesis products Production Centre ó Analysis Centre sharing of comparison work Documentation Barnier: GMES MyOcean presentation Reanalysis conference May 2012

5 Inter-comparison of reanalyses: Surface Heat Flux: Barnier: MyOcean for Reanalysis conference ERAi original 5 Valida)on: Intercomparison Model output Bulk formulae Atmospheric variables ERAi (θa, qa, Ua, radsw, radlw) MJM95 Model dependant fluxes (evapora)on, wind, turbulent heat flux, radia)ve fluxes) SST obs. SST

6 Inter-comparison of reanalyses: Surface Heat Flux 5 Valida)on: Intercomparison Time- mean Net Heat Flux (Downwards) Exp GLO CGLORS GLORYS U-READ LEGI ERA-INT MyO-ENS OAFlux

7 Synthesis increments Surface fluxes and Meridional Transports ( ): UR025.3 product Global and Atlantic Ht transports Freshwater transports Haines et al

8 GODAE OceanView GSOP Workshop: Observing System Evaluation and Coupled Data Assimilation Apr 2013 Hobart Funding already secure ocean observing system: time and spatial scales; assimilation methods (for state estimation and prediction); coupled modelling and data assimilation (all earth system components and their interactions); observing system evaluation (impact on prediction systems? Gaps? Oversampling? etc.) validation of analysis and forecast systems (quantifying observation value) Global Synthesis and Observations Panel (GSOP) Major future plans/activities(1) GSOP Workshop Ocean Synthesis and Air-Sea flux evaluation WHOI, Nov 2012 (50-60 participants) Sponsorship now from WCRP, USCLIVAR, NASA,NOAA (This was time consuming!!) Air-sea flux methods and products evaluation with emphasis on modeling applications and synthesis flux products Observation and Model based Syntheses => Global Consistency Wider synthesis comparison reports from Analysis Centres GSOP 6 th panel WHOI 30 Nov- 1 Dec 2012

9 Global Synthesis and Observations Panel (GSOP) Major future plans/activities(2) GSOP Workshop Ocean Sub-Surface Climate Data OS-SCD, Apr-Jun 2013 (20-30 participants) Develop a high-quality historical ocean subsurface global data set for climate research needs, including synthesis Develop agreed semi-automated QC Community program for future CLIVAR endorsement followed by requests for national support Support from 5 Data Centers as well as synthesis groups Application domains would include: more accurate (XBT/MBT) bias corrections; performance metrics to evaluate climate models; key indicators for global/regional climate variability and change; synthesis efforts; ocean model initializations; multi-disciplinary (observational and modelling) climate research, including detection and attribution studies. Some CSIRO funding available but WCRP support also requested

10 Ocean Sub- Surface Climate Data Workshop Plan for Coordinated semi- automated screening of 9 million historical T profiles Benefits: more than 95% bad data removed nearly all duplicates removed no loss of good data only ~40% manual screening integrated metadata traceability errors measurements Major data centres involved: US NODC/NOAA (Levitus, Boyer et al.) Japan MRI (Ishii et al.) Germany KlimaCampus (Stammer, Gouretski) UK MetOffice (Good, Palmer) Australia ACE- CRC/CSIRO (Domingues, Gronell, Cowley, Wijffels, Bindoff) Project aim: To deliver a historical global database of subsurface ocean temperature (salinity) that will meet the more demanding 21st century requirements of quality, consistency and reduced uncertain)es of an escala)ng number of climate science underpinning decision and policy- making assessments. We need support for ONE- OFF WORKSHOP to discuss/agree in person the scope/details of the project proposal and therefore to facilitate the prepara)on of a scien)fic/implementa)on plan (to be submiged for CLIVAR endorsement).

11 Global Synthesis and Observations Panel (GSOP) Issues and Challenges for Discussion Develop GSOP relationships with Data and Modeling Councils SSG needs to confirm new GSOP ToR Synthesis NEEDS advocacy from both Councils, danger it will get it from neither? Develop CLIVAR Science applications community for Synthesis products Get wider expertise involved in evaluating products, eg. Decadal Prediction, Air-Sea fluxes, Regional interests eg. Arctic, Nesting applications, Transport applications, eg. carbon, biogeochemistry Synthesis/Assimilation applications to model improvement? GSOP-WGOMD Need to increase accessibility and applicability of products- Large datasets, Standardized formats, Browsability. ICPO web presence? Resources for comparisons work European COST proposal unsuccessful EU GMES MyOcean2 plans Involvement with GODAE-Oceanview community has been very successful so far as they have some resource

12 Quality of historical ocean subsurface temperature? Gaussian Tail for positive depth error is much bigger Pilot study in Indian Ocean and Southwest Pacific (Gronell and Wijffels, 2008) Automated QC only designed to detect obvious errors. It can accept bad data as good and incorrectly identfy good data as bad. Expert Manual QC: found 16% of bad data (some within background sta)s)cs). If same % bad data maintained for world ocean : ~1.5 million BAD temperature profiles ImplicaTons: a rela)vely large amount of non- trivial errors in the observa)ons can lead to rapid and/or slowly- varying ar)facts in the evolu)on of ocean climate signals at global and regional scales.

13 Manual screening of 9 million ocean temperature profiles too expensive!!! PracTcal soluton: Coordinated semi- automated screening Benefits: more than 95% bad data removed nearly all duplicates removed no loss of good data only ~40% manual screening integrated metadata traceability errors measurements Major data centres involved: US NODC/NOAA (Levitus, Boyer et al.) Japan MRI (Ishii et al.) Germany KlimaCampus (Stammer, Gouretski) UK MetOffice (Good, Palmer) Australia ACE- CRC/CSIRO (Domingues, Gronell, Cowley, Wijffels, Bindoff) Project aim: To deliver a historical global database of subsurface ocean temperature (salinity) that will meet the more demanding 21st century requirements of quality, consistency and reduced uncertain)es of an escala)ng number of climate science underpinning decision and policy- making assessments. We need support for ONE- OFF WORKSHOP to discuss/agree in person the scope/details of the project proposal and therefore to facilitate the prepara)on of a scien)fic/implementa)on plan (to be submiged for CLIVAR endorsement).

14 RAPID array transports and OHC anomalies Attribution: Relative heat content wrt isotherms. Chris Roberts 26-41N Atlantic T anomaly 00m 1000 Palmer and Haines (2009) Total Relative HC anomaly volume change + average temperature change (advection) (surface fluxes) Crown copyright Met Office

15 Aquarius Reveals Salinity Structure of Tropical Instability Waves for the First Time From Space, Complementary to Other Obs. Lee, T., G. Lagerloef, M. Gierach, H.- Y. Kao, S. Yueh, K. Dohan (2012, Geophys. Res. Leg. Accepted) Example for Dec. 18, 2011 (Aquarius SSS & AVHRR- based SST) (Aquarius SSS & satellite- based surface currents)

16 Argo and CLIVAR Since 1998, 1080 research papers have used Argo data, including 300 in JGR, GRL, and JPO. hgp:// Argo contributes to a broad range of climate- related basic research, including global change, in addi)on to opera)onal and educa)on applica)ons Argo papers As of 20 April 2012 Recent analyses of global ocean heat content include improved es)mates for the recent half century (Levitus et al., GRL, 2012), and es)mated warming for the 135- year interval between the Challenger Expedi)on and Argo (Roemmich et al., Nature Climate Change, 2012). Levitus et al., 2012 Mean Argo- minus- Challenger temperature difference (red), from Roemmich et al., 2012)

17 GSOP Membership Keith Haines (co-chair) (2013) NCEO, Reading University, Reading, UK Tony Lee (co-chair) (2014) Toshiyuki Awaji (2014) Magdalena Balmaseda (2014) Jet Propulsion Laboratory, USA Kyoto University, Japan ECMWF, UK Bernard Barnier (2014) Laboratoire Ecoulements Geophysiques et Industriels, Grenoble, France Catia Domingues (2015) Pierre-Philippe Mathieu (2015) Matt Palmer (2014) Toste Tanhua (2013) Lisan Yu (2015) Ex-Officio Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems CRC, Australia ESA, Italy Met Office Hadley Centre, UK IfM-GEOMAR, Germany WHOI, USA Mike McPhaden - Chair of the Tropical Moored Buoy Implementation Panel Dean Roemmich - co-chair of the Argo Steering Team Uwe Send - co-chair of OceanSITES NOAA PMEL, Seattle, USA Scripps Inst. of Oceanography, La Jolla, USA Scripps Inst. of Oceanography, La Jolla, USA

18

19 Revised GSOP ToR The CLIVAR Global Synthesis and Observations panel is established to: 1. Develop, promote and seek to implement strategies for the synthesis of global ocean, atmosphere and coupled climate information. Methods will include observation-based syntheses and model-based syntheses e.g. Reanalyses. 2. Define CLIVAR's requirement for globally sustained observations and promote the use of resulting data sets in global synthesis efforts. Provide strategic advice and supporting evidence in collaboration with WMO and IOC bodies, to help sustain, evolve and optimise the global ocean observing system based on new science and reanalysis insights. 3. Develop metrics to evaluate ocean and coupled syntheses, to promote the utility of synthesis products for climate applications, including initialisation of coupled forecasts, detection/attribution of climate change and variability, and determining the oceans role in the global heat, water and biogeochemical cycles. 4. Provide strategic advice and direction to CLIVAR/WCRP data management and processing activities within the Framework for Ocean Observing, related to production of climate quality global ocean synthesis products. 5. Liaise and collaborate with WCRP Councils, Panels and Working Groups in identifying the requirements for, and coordinating the development of, a sustainable Earth system monitorin and prediction system. 6. The Panel will report to the CLIVAR SSG.

20 OLD-GSOP-ToR Terms of Reference The CLIVAR Global Synthesis and Observations panel is established to: 1. Develop, promote and seek to implement strategies for a synthesis of global ocean, atmosphere and coupled climate information through analysis and reanalysis efforts and through the use of other techniques where appropriate. Initial emphasis will be on global ocean synthesis efforts, building on previous experiences and developments. 2. Be responsible for the definition and fulfilment of CLIVAR's global needs for sustained observations (in collaboration with relevant WMO and IOC bodies, including GCOS, GTOS, GOOS, AOPC and OOPC, and JCOMM), and for the development of a strategy for their evolution/optimization based on new science and reanalysis insights, and fostering the use of resulting data sets in global synthesis efforts. 3. Promote activities to develop the surface flux data sets required by CLIVAR in liaison with the WGNE, global atmospheric reanalysis efforts and the WCRP Working Group on Surface Fluxes. 4. Provide an overview of and directions to CLIVAR data management and information activities in collaboration with other WCRP projects and in liaison with CLIVARrelevant data centres and DACS and the ICPO. 5. Liaise and collaborate with CLIVAR Panels and Working Groups in identifying the requirements for and coordinating the development of an observing system for CLIVAR. The Panel will report to the CLIVAR SSG.

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