Keynote 2: What is Landslide Hazard? Inventory Maps, Uncertainty, and an Approach to Meeting Insurance Industry Needs

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1 Keynote 2: What is Landslide Hazard? Inventory Maps, Uncertainty, and an Approach to Meeting Insurance Industry Needs Jeffrey R Keaton Richard J Roth, Jr Amec Foster Wheeler Los Angeles, USA Consulting Insurance Actuary Huntington Beach, CA USA

2 Why are we here today? You are here 2

3 Landslide Damage Excluded from private property insurance because Accurate landslide hazard models are not available Landslide loss models cannot be developed Building damage often is extensive resulting in total loss Photo by Scott Burns 3

4 Recognition of Need Joint Technical Committee on Landslides and Engineered Slopes (JTC-1) ISSMGE, ISRM and IAEG (2008) Guidelines for systematic quantitative assessment of landslide susceptibility hazard and risk zoning for use by government officials, geotechnical professionals, and land use planners 4

5 Joint Technical Committee Landsliding is potentially a land-use planning issue where one or more of the following conditions exist: histories of landsliding susceptibility based on topography susceptibility based on geology and geomorphology 5

6 JTC-1 Hazard A condition with the potential for causing an undesirable consequence. The description of landslide hazard should include the location, volume (or area), classification and velocity of the potential landslides and any resultant detached material, and the probability of their occurrence within a given period of time Fell et al.,

7 Landslide Classification Slide Rotation Translation Topple Flow Fall Spread 7

8 European Commission Joint Research Centre Hazard A situation with the potential to result in harm. For natural hazards, HAZARD is commonly referred to as the probability that a natural event (of a certain magnitude) occurs in a certain place/area at a certain time. Consideration of the time dimension thus differentiates HAZARD from SUSCEPTIBILITY, which only considers the event and the place/area. Wood & Jelínek,

9 Landslide Hazard Map Used two different ways in Europe: Broad non-technical sense Maps showing landslide inventories, susceptibility areas and landslide zones Restricted sense Maps indicating landslide potential or probability within a given area Jelínek et al.,

10 Review of Hazard and Risk Hazard Processes which can cause damage or injury Probability that damaging intensity will occur Consequence (vulnerability) Potential for and magnitude of damage or loss (expressed in $, lives, or relative range 0 to 1) Risk Hazard (p) x Consequence ($ or lives) = $ or lives LANDSLIDE V 10

11 No Landslide Loss Models Landslide loss models have not been developed because Geologists and engineers have not developed landslide hazard models that the insurance industry can use Some building fragility curves exist from earthquake damage research No market exists for model output without insurance products 11

12 Current Landslide Research Landslide inventories input for zoning Landslide mechanics predict behavior Landslide disaster studies document Landslide microzonation of high-hazard areas explain better Landslide hazard studies mitigate 12

13 Inventory Maps Maps showing locations of past events Event size typically is implied by area Recent events may be differentiated from older ones by appearance Commonly viewed as hazard maps Commonly viewed as essential because they represent ground truth 13

14 Landslide Inventory What about magnitude and frequency? 14

15 Landslide Hazard What about magnitude and frequency? 15

16 Components of Hazard Maps Hazard Factor Magnitude or Intensity Frequency Landslide?? Earthquake Peak acceleration values /year (475-yr recurrence) 16

17 Earthquake Hazard Models Earthquake hazard for a street address in Málaga, Spain, can be determined just as easily as for a street address in Memphis, USA 17

18 Inventory Map = Geologic Map A geologic map is an Artistic representation of One interpretation of geologic features and relationships Inferred from limited observations often with little or no subsurface or lab data Why might we think this is ground truth? 18

19 Uncertainty and Variability Inventory maps are subjective products containing uncertainties and omissions of their own Inventories don t always agree Two kinds of mismatch Among geologists interpreting the same data or imagery Among different kinds of data, imagery, or techniques 19

20 Sources of Mismatch Lidar vs radar vs photogrammetric DEMs Aerial photo vs high resolution topo (lidar) Office vs field studies Empirical inventories vs process-based models Amount of time for study Leaf-off 0.5 m aerial photo Deforested 2 m airborne lidar Photo and data: Ohio Statewide Imagery Program 20

21 Sources of Inventory Mismatch Root causes Dense vegetation Limited or different spatial resolution or temporal range Incomplete or ambiguous exposures Geologic subjectivity Geologic Subjectivity Italy (ground based) 21

22 Geologic Subjectivity Belgium (lidar based) Geologic Subjectivity Van Den Eeckhaut et al (2007, ESPL) 22

23 Summary Mismatch Data Acceptable Unacceptable Among 3 field maps (Ardizzone et al, 2002) Among 3 pairs of field maps (Ardizzone et al, 2002) Among 7 pairs of lidar maps (Van Den Eeckhaut et al, 2007) Between 1 field and 7 lidar maps (Van Den Eeckhaut et al, 2007) Between field and 1:100,000 hillshade (Van Den Eeckhaut et al, 2005) 23

24 Some Possible Solutions Any single human-made landslide inventory is not truth ground or otherwise It is a model with its own uncertainties, errors, and subjectivities Use a combination of maps produced using complementary data and/or independent geologists 24

25 A Good Solution Combine results of inventory-based maps with process-based hazard model results Unstable (model AND map) All figures: Haneberg (2004, Envir. Engrg. Geosci.) Inventory data: Davies & Ohlmacher (1978, USGS OFR) Uncertain (model OR map) Stable (model AND map) 25

26 Detailed Landslide Hazard Maps ^ Stability Classification of Slopes and Landslides I Unstable Slopes [Ia, Ib, Ic] II Slopes with Inactive Landslides [IIa, IIb, IIc, IId] III Potentially Unstable Slopes IV Apparently Stable Landslides [IVa, IVb, IVc, IVd] V Apparently Stable Slopes 27

27 Stability Classification of Slopes & Slides 28

28 Stability Classification of Slopes & Slides 29

29 Landslide Age Classification Active, Dormant-Historic 30

30 Landslide Age Classification Dormant-Young 31

31 Landslide Age Classification Dormant-Mature 32

32 Landslide Age Classification Dormant-Old 33

33 Engineering-Geologic and Stability Classification Maps 34

34 Landslides and Slope Stability in the United States 35

35 Comprehensive Slope Hazard First step toward serious landslide models Needed by insurance industry so that insuring landslide damage can be considered p = /year (475-yr recurrence) Cloudy, with a chance of landslides 36

36 Early Earthquake Damage Map Early seismic hazard map was simple depicting zones (0-3) defined by incidence of past damage Used in early building codes to define lateral forces for design 37

37 Earthquake Insurance Post-earthquake building damage data has become more detailed and relevant Details allow correlations among geologic site conditions, ground motion, and building age, height, and type Improved understanding leads to refinements in building codes and a consulting industry that supports private insurance and reinsurance companies 38

38 Current Approach Land use zoning ordinances require geotechnical investigations in areas with histories of landslide damage or near areas with similar characteristics However, documentation of absence of landslides also has value to private insurance companies 39

39 Landslide Magnitude Challenging topic landslide volume or area is suitable for zoning or comparison Landslide damage is caused by displacement or differential displacement which may or may not be reflected in landslide volume or area 40

40 Actuarial Insurance Perspective Landslides are not Landslides are secondary events triggered by outside events Landslides are not necessarily recurring events Landslides may or may not actually occur given a triggering rainstorm or earthquake event Earthquakes Earthquakes are primary events Earthquakes are recurring events Earthquakes always cause ground motion 41

41 Motivation for Insurance Landslide damage is uninsurable because the risk cannot be quantified Scientific and engineering models of landslide (slope) hazard are not being developed because no insurance market exists for them 42

42 Motivation for Insurance The success of earthquake insurance suggests that improvements will be made in simple landslide loss models once landslide insurance products become viable for private insurers So what does this simple model look like? 43

43 Simple Approach Define landslide hazards in terms analogous to early seismic damage zones Zone 0: Areas without landslides are equivalent to areas without earthquake damage Zone 3: Areas with abundant landslides and extensive history of damage are equivalent to areas with frequent and extensive earthquake damage 44

44 Simple Approach Zones 1 and 2 : Areas with intermediate landslide occurrence or susceptibility, equating to intermediate earthquake damage 45

45 Seismic Zones 46

46 Landslide Hazard Map 47

47 Bedrock Geology and Precipitation 48

48 Slope Hazard Zones Zone 3: moderate and high landslide incidence and susceptibility, accelerations 15%g & precipitation 400mm Zone 0: simple geology, low topographic relief & precipitation < 400mm Zones 1 & 2: complex geology, some relief, & precipitation < 400mm 49

49 Landslide Hazard Zones Zone 0 (p<<0.01) Areas without histories of slides and without topography, geology, or geomorphology conducive to slope movements Zone 3 (p>0.01) Areas with histories of slope movements and within areas of conducive topography, geology, geomorphology, and triggering events 50

50 Landslide Hazard Zones Zone 1 (p<0.01) hilly areas where no landslides have occurred and none are expected based on geotechnical study Zone 2 (p 0.01) hilly areas where no landslides have occurred but slope-movement susceptibility is real based on geology or geomorphology 51

51 Private Insurance Options Zones 0 & 1 Private insurers might offer policies or even include landslide damage coverage in all-peril policies Zone 2 Policies not offered unless damage mitigation measures were implemented and maintained, and then only for certain types of construction and uses Zone 3 Policies would not be offered without comprehensive geotechnical analysis and hazard and risk mitigation 52

52 GIS Topography Alternative Slope Godt et al Landslide locations (inventories) Local relief 53

53 US Zip Code Zones Demographic data are compiled using political boundaries Use Zip codes for topo data Godt et al

54 Negligible Landslide Hazard Godt et al

55 Keynote 2: What is Landslide Hazard? Inventory Maps, Uncertainty, and an Approach to Meeting Insurance Industry Needs Jeffrey R Keaton Richard J Roth, Jr Amec Foster Wheeler Los Angeles, USA Consulting Insurance Actuary Huntington Beach, CA USA 56

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