Drought, the Lumbering Walrus of Canadian Natural Hazards

Transcription

1 40 th Annual Center for Great Plains Studies Symposium Drought, the Lumbering Walrus of Canadian Natural Hazards Past, Present, and Future Harvey Hill, Kristin Bruce, Darrell Corkal Drought: In the life, Cultures and Landscapes of the Great Plains 40 th Annual Center for Great Plains Studies Symposium April 3, 2014

2 Katlin Strobbe Monica Hadarits Robert Armstrong

3 Where were we? Where are we? Where could we be going?

4 But first a little background

5 North American Water Consumption Canada receives 3300 KM 3 of renewable water per year 1. The United States receives 3060 KM 3 of renewable water per year. A cubic kilometer of water being 1 trillion liters. The total renewable water per capita is 94 million liters in Canada, and 10 million liters in the United States Simplistically Canadians have 9 times more water per capita than their U.S. counterparts. In reality not all parts of Canada are equally endowed 1 Gleick, Pacific Institute

6 The Prairies often receive less than 350 mm precipitation per year between snow and rain. Known as the Palliser Triangle (13, Marchildon et al., 2007) Current Drought Conditions on Canadian Prairies(1, AAFC, 2013) These challenges make drought hard to quantify; spanning large distances and slowly moving into new sectors as a situation worsens.

7 Sauchyn, D, J. Vanstone and R. Armstrong, 2013

8 Relief for Farmers, 1930s, PFRA

9 Source: Prairie Farm Rehabilitation Administration (11, Wark, 2006) Established by the Prairie Farm Rehabilitation Act, 1935 Branch of AAFC Original mandate: Help mitigate effects of drought in namely, soil erosion and lack of water resources required for ag. development in drought effected areas of SK, MB, and AB In 2012, the Federal government announced the termination of PFRA (14)

10 Where are we? Source: OECD 1995 and 1996

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12 (Wheaton et al., 12) Coast to coast effects (similar to 1914) First to have a name Ada Ag. production declines $3.6 B GDP fell $5.8 B across Canada Research resulted in a call for a national drought adaptation network (DAN) Photo sources: theglobleandmail.com, PFRA, cbc.ca; drinetwork.ca

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14 Most common adaptations: Crop insurance, water conservation and management Income stabilization programs Shared costs Irrigation, not funded by Federal Government in recent times Zero-till Tree planting Fallow covering Livestock tax deferral.

15 Management Plans Dealing with Drought Handbook, British Columbia (2004) Drought Risk Management Plan, Alberta (2010) Hydrologic Drought Risk Management Plan, Saskatchewan (2010) Drought Management Plan, Prairie Adaptation Research Collaborative (2005)

16 Policy Ontario Low Water Response Plan (2012) Drought Response Plan, British Columbia (2010) 25 Year Water Security Plan, Saskatchewan (2012) Tomorrow Now, Manitoba (2012)

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18 Drought Research Initiative (DRI) (24) To better understand the physical characteristics of and processes influencing Canadian Prairie droughts, and to contribute to their better prediction, through a focus on the recent severe drought /2005. Photos courtesy of the PFRA

19 VACEA s goal is to provide new knowledge to strengthen the capacities of governance institutions and rural populations in Canada, Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Colombia.

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21 A Modest Attempt to Take the "I" out of the Hydro-Illogical Cycle Harvey Hill 1, Terry Rolfe 2, Elaine Wheaton 3, Richard Lawford 4, John Pomeroy 5, Ronald Stewart 6, Nancy Lee 7 CMOS Congress, Kelowna, May 28, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, 2 Consultant, Saskatchewan Research Council, 4 Drought Research Iniatitive, 5 University of Saskatchewan, 6 Mcgill University, 7 Agrculture and Agri-Food Canada Contact: hillh@agr.gc.ca

22 The Genesis of the Invitational Drought Tournament Discover/ War 3 Competition Game Panic year/game 4 Partnerships/Deliver Multi-year Drought/Discover 22

23 Climate Adaptation for Resilience in Agriculture (CARA) project: Visualization Valuation

24 Invitational Drought Tournament (IDT) Discussion-support tool Helps institutions tackle drought preparedness. Forum for multi-disciplinary stakeholders to discuss climate preparedness and adaptation. 24

25 Decision Theatre, Arizona State University?

26 Providing Decision makers a methodology to improve climate resiliency through cost effective adaptation

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28 Where Are We Going?? I heard that WWF Guy yesterday. Source: soundwaves.usgs.gov

29 Can we set a target from 1 liter per 1 calorie to 0.8 liter per calorie, 0.6 liter per calorie?

30 A Drought 20 years From Now Matters Even More Political stability, Ratio of arable acres to per capita declining, Lose market share, When does the non-negotiable become negotiable? Water diversion, GMOs, Land use diversification?

31 Can we look at the landscape in terms of the drought we can t cope with? Petra? Israel/Jordan? Queensland? The Southwest Indians? Strategic use of forecasting Shell foresighting exercise

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34 Bench Mark Reduction by Emergency Payments and Land Out of Commission Declining hectares out of commission due to climate extremes Declining Emergency Response Costs Costs of Resilience investing lower than Response Post Extreme Today 2040

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36 1. Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada. (2013) Current Conditions. Drought Watch Website. 2. Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada. (2013) Synthesis Report: Lessons Learned from the Canadian Drought Years 2001 and 2002, 3. Prairie Adaptation Research Collaborative Wesbite (2014). Retirved on March 24, 2014 from 4. The Invitational Drought Tournament (IDT), AAFC, 2013, AgriWiki. 5. Statistics Canada. (2013). Agricultural Water Use in Canada 6. Statistics Canada. (2011). Environment Accounts and Statistics Division, Agricultural Water Survey (5145) 7. Environment Canada. (2013). Residential Water Use Data. Retired from on Feb. 25, Environment Canada (2013). Water Withdrawal and Consumption by Sector Data. Retrieved from on Feb, 25, Econonics (2010). British Columbia Drought Response Plan. Prepared for Ministry of Environment. Retrieved from Feb.27, Government of Alberta. (2010). Alberta s Agriculture Drought Risk Management Plan. Policy, Strategy and Intergovernmental Affairs Division. Retrieved on Feb. 27, 2014 from Wark, W. (2006). Prairie Farm Rehabilitation Administration (PFRA). The Encyclopedia of Saskatchewan Website Wheaton, E., Koshida, G., Bonsal, B., Johnston, T., Richards, W., & Wittrock, V. (2007). Agricultural Adaptation to Drought (ADA) in Canada: The Case of 2001 to Saskatchewan Research Council. Prepared for the Government of Canada s Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Program. SRC Publication No E Marchildon, G.P., Kulshreshtha, S., Wheaton, E., & Sauchyn, D. (2007). Drought and institutional adaptation in Alberta and Saskatchewan, Retrieved from on Feb. 27, Canadian Cowboy Country (2012). The Death of the PFRA. Retrieved on Feb. 17, 2014 from Saskatchewan Watershed Authority (2010). Saskatchewan Drought Activities: Drought Research Initiative. Presented in Winnipeg May 12-14, Retrieved from on March 4, SaskAdapt (2014). SaskAdapt Website. Prairie Adaptation and Research Collaborative. Retrieved on March 4, 2014 from Water Security Agency (2012). Saskatchewan s 25 Year Water Security Plan. Retrieved on March 4, 2014 from Ontario Government (2010). Ontario Low Water Response. Retrived on March 4, 2014 from

37 References 18. Government of Manitoba (2010). Update on Manitoba Drought Management Plan. PARC Workshop Presentation September 20-21, Retrieved on March 4, 2014 from Sept%2020_21% pdf 19. Wheaton, E.E., Arthur, L.M., Chorney, B., Shewchuk, S., Thorpe, J., Whiting, J., and Wittrock, V. (1992). The Prairie Drought of Climatological Bulletin, 26(3), pp Natural Resources Conservation Service (2013). United States Department of Agriculture. Website. Retrieved on March 8, 2014 from U.S. Drought Portal (2013). NIDIS Information. Retrieved on March 8, 2014 from NOAA (2013). Climate Section, NOAA Website. Retrieved on March 8, 2014 from Ontario Government. (2010). Ontario Low Water Response. Retrieved on March 8, 2014 from Drought Research Initiative Website (2014) Hoekstra, A.Y. and A. K. Chapagain (2007) Water footprints of nations: Water use by people as a function of their consumption pattern, Water Resource Management (2007) 21:35 48 DOI /s x, Received: 18 January 2005 / Accepted: 12 October 2005

38 Drought: In the life, Cultures and Landscapes of the Great Plains 40 th Annual Center for Great Plains Studies Symposium