Integrated Household Surveys and Corporate Financial Accounting: Applications to U.S. Surveys of Households and Consumers

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1 Integrated Household Surveys and Corporate Financial Accounting: Applications to U.S. Surveys of Households and Consumers Scott Schuh (Boston Fed) Robert M. Townsend (MIT) Frontiers of Measuring Household Economic Behavior Federal Reserve Bank of Boston workshop, April 28, 2015 We thank Tamas Briglevics, Stacy Carlson, Kevin Foster, Mi Luo, and David Zhang for excellent research assistance

2 Overview Assess S-T (2009) integration in 8 U.S. surveys: Balance sheet, income statement, cash flow Describe integration of Boston Fed surveys 2015 Survey/Diary of Consumer Payment Choice Cash flow statement modified for payments 2

3 U.S. Surveys Acronym TTMS SCPC DCPC SCF CE PSID HRS NASCC FD Title Townsend Thai Monthly Survey [BENCHMARK] Survey of Consumer Payment Choice (Boston Fed) Diary of Consumer Payment Choice (Boston Fed) Survey of Consumer Finances (Federal Reserve Board) Consumer Expenditure Survey (BLS) Panel Study on Income Dynamics Health and Retirement Survey National Asset Scorecard for Communities of Color U.S. Financial Diaries 3

4 Balance sheet assets TTMS SCPC DCPC SCF CE PSID HRS NASCC FD Assets Financial assets SHORT-TERM Currency (bills and coins) Bank accounts (checking and saving) O Other accounts (prepaid, Paypal, etc.) O Private virtual currency (Bitcoin etc.) LONG-TERM Certificate of deposits Mutual funds/hedge fund Publicly traded equity Bonds Retirement accounts Life insurance Annuities Trusts/managed investment accounts Loans to people outside the HH Other important assets Nonfinancial assets Business Housing assets Vehicles Other non-financial assets O: Ownership only; : Ownership and amount; Empty: No information Source: authors preliminary calculations; comments and corrections welcome! 4

5 Balance sheet liabilities TTMS SCPC DCPC SCF CE PSID HRS NASCC FD Liabilities Revolving credit Credit cards / charge cards Revolving store accounts Non-revolving credit Housing Mortgages for primary residence Mortgages for investment real estate or second home Loans for improvement Loans on vehicles Education loans Business loans Investment loans (e.g. margin loans) Unsecured personal loans Loans against pension plan Payday loans / Pawn shops Any other loans Source: authors preliminary calculations; comments and corrections welcome! 5

6 Income statement income TTMS SCPC DCPC SCF CE PSID HRS NASCC FD Total income Compensations of employees Wages and salaries Professional practice or trade Business income (self-employment) Rent Interest, dividends, etc. Government Transfer Receipts Other transfer receipts, from business Other transfer receipts, from persons All other income Income Income in currency O Income in demand deposit accounts O Income in other short-term assets O Income in liabilities O O: Ownership only; : Ownership and amount; Empty: No information Source: authors preliminary calculations; comments and corrections welcome! 6

7 Income statement consumption TTMS SCPC DCPC SCF CE PSID HRS NASCC FD Consumption and taxes (by type of expenditures) Food and alcohol products and services Personal care products and services Tobacco products and smoking supplies Reading Apparel and services Housing, furnishings, and utilities Healthcare Transportation Communications Entertainment Education Personal insurance, financial services, and pensions Cash contributions Miscellaneous Taxes Consumption and taxes (by type of assets) Consumption in currency Consumption in demand deposit accounts Checks, Debit, OBBP, BANP Consumption in other short-term assets Prepaid, Money order, traveller's check Consumption in liabilities Credit, Charge, Text/SMS Other Direct deduction from income Source: authors preliminary calculations; comments and corrections welcome! 7

8 Consumption classification systems Food - Purchased for off-premises consumption - Produced and consumed on farms Housing, utilities, and fuels - Rental - Group housing - Water supply and sanitation - Electricity, gas, and other fuels Furnishings, household equipment, and routine household maintenance - etc. Transportation - Motor vehicles - Motor vehicle operation - Public transportation Healthcare - Medical products, appliances, and equipment - Outpatient services - Hospital and nursing home services PCE CE PSID Food - At home - Away from home Housing - Rented Dwellings - Property Tax - Home Insurance - Utilities - Telephone Services - Computer Information Services - Maintenance Repairs - Household furnishings and equipment Transportation - Vehicle Purchases - Gasoline and Motor oil - Vehicle Finance Charges - Maintenance and Repairs - Vehicle Insurance - Vehicle rental, leases, licenses, and other charges - Public Transportation Health Care - Health insurance - Medical services - Drugs Clothing, footwear, and related services Apparel and services Clothing Education Education Education 8 Food - At home - Away from home - Delivered Housing - Rent - Property Tax - Home Insurance - Utilities - Telephone/Internet - Home Repairs and Maintenance - Household Furnishings and Equipment Transportation - Vehicle loan payment - Vehicle down payment - Vehicle lease payment - Insurance - Repair and Maintenance - Gasoline - Parking and carpool - Bus fares and train fares - Taxicabs - Other transportation Health Care - Doctor - Prescription Drugs - Insurance - Hospital/Nursing Home Note: Table does not include CE categories of Personal Care Products, Tobacco Products and Smoking Supplies, Reading, Communications, Entertainment, Personal insurance, financial services, and pensions, Cash Contributions, and Miscellaneous

9 Cash flow statement [standard] TTMS SCPC DCPC SCF CE PSID HRS NASCC FD Cash flow from Consumption and Investment Consumption expenditure (-) Expenditure 1 Expenditure 2 Capital expenditure (-) Expenditure 1 Expenditure 2 Cash flow from Financing Lending (-) Borrowing (+) Net Gifts Received (+) Source: authors preliminary calculations; comments and corrections welcome! 9

10 SCPC and DCPC overview 2015 Issues Sample size? Vendor? Panel? 10

11 SCPC and DCPC contents 11

12 DCPC aggregate income 12

13 DCPC aggregate consumption 13

14 DCPC illustrative result Cumulative consumer expenditures following Hurricane Sandy Landfall 14

15 Money and Payments Macro/monetary view Micro/IO view Asset or Liability Basic Money or Debt Instrument (derivative media) Physical trait Currency in circulation Currency Money (M1) Credit Travelers check Demand deposit accounts & Other checkable deposits Revolving Nonrevolving Unknown/unspecified??? Travelers check Checks (Personal, Certified, Cashiers) Money order Online banking bill pay (OBBP) Bank account number payment (BANP) Direct deduction from income Debit Prepaid Credit Charge Text/SMS Nonbank money order or prepaid card; virtual currencies Paper / metal Electronic Card Electronic Mixed Source: Author s analysis. 15

16 Cash flow statement [modified] TTMS SCPC DCPC SCF CE PSID HRS NASCC FD Cash flow from Consumption and Investment (C&I) Consumption expenditure (-) Capital expenditure (-) Cash flow from C&I, Currency Cash flow from C&I, DDA Cash flow from C&I, Credit Card Cash flow from C&I, Prepaid Cash flow from Financing Change in Deposit at Financial Institution (-) Lending (-) Borrowing (+) Net Gifts Received (+) Cash flow from Financing, Currency Cash flow from Financing, DDA Cash flow from Financing, Credit Card Cash flow from Financing, Prepaid Source: authors preliminary calculations; comments and corrections welcome! 16

17 Cash flow statement: Currency Statement of Currency Flows (U.S. currency) TTMS SCPC DCPC SCF CE PSID HRS NASCC FD Net income in currency (+) Cash flow from Consumption and Investment Consumption expenditure (-) Payment 1 (expenditure 1, 2, 3, ) Payment 2 (expenditure 1, 2, 3, ) Capital expenditure (-) Payment 1 (expenditure 1, 2, 3, ) Payment 2 (expenditure 1, 2, 3, ) Cash flow from Financing Salary (+) Change in Deposit at Financial Institution (DDA accounts) Cash deposits (-) Cash withdrawals (+) Change in CC accounts Payment to CC Account (-) [rare?] Payment from CC Account (+) Change in Prepaid accounts Payment to Prepaid Account (-) Payment from Prepaid Account (+) Lending (-) Borrowing (+) Net Gifts Received (+) Source: authors preliminary calculations; comments and corrections welcome! 17

18 Expanded balance sheet assets Assets Financial assets SHORT-TERM 18 TTMS SCPC DCPC Currency (bills and coins) Bank accounts (checking and saving) Other accounts (prepaid, Paypal, etc.) Private virtual currency (Bitcoin etc.) LONG-TERM Certificate of deposits Mutual funds/hedge fund Publicly traded equity Bonds Retirement accounts Life insurance Annuities Trusts/managed investment accounts Loans to people outside the HH Other important assets Nonfinancial assets Business Housing assets Vehicles Other non-financial assets Source: authors preliminary calculations; comments and corrections welcome!

19 Expanded income statement income TTMS SCPC DCPC Total income Compensations of employees Wages and salaries Professional practice or trade Business income (self-employment) Rent Interest, dividends, etc. Government Transfer Receipts Other transfer receipts, from business Other transfer receipts, from persons All other income Income Income in currency Income in demand deposit accounts Income in other short-term assets Income in liabilities Source: authors preliminary calculations; comments and corrections welcome! 19

20 DCPC payee-expenditure classification DCPC Payee CE Food at home and away, stores online and offline, vending machines (8 categories) Auto rental/maintenance, auto dealers, gas stations, parking, tolls, public transportation (7 categories) Entertainment, recreation, arts, museums, movie theaters (2 categories) Phone/internet, online and print news, online games Merchant Merchant, Govt Merchant Merchant - Food and alcohol products and services - Personal care products and services - Tobacco products and smoking supplies - Reading - Apparel and services - Transportation - Entertainment - Communications DCPC Payee CE Utilities; furniture, appliance, and hardware stores; rent/mortgage; building contractors and services (8 categories) Education Health professionals, hospitals, residential care (2 categories) Financial services, insurance Charitable organizations, friends and family, other people (3 categories) Other categories (11 categories) Merchant - Housing, furnishings, and utilities Educators - Education Medical service providers Financial service providers - Healthcare - Personal insurance, financial services Non-profit - Cash contributions - Miscellaneous 20

21 Future work Short Run Completing analysis of U.S. surveys Integrating 2015 SCPC and DCPC Long Run Getting consensus on concepts/measurement Unifying the statistical system 21

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