Report prepared by the Applied Population Laboratory at the University of Wisconsin- Madison October, 2007

Transcription

1 Northern Wisconsin Higher Education Initiative Demographic Profile Report prepared by the Applied Population Laboratory at the University of Wisconsin- Madison October, 2007 For more information, contact: Richelle Winker or Dan Veroff

2 PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK Northern Wisconsin Higher Education Initiative: Demographic Profile II

3 TABLE OF CONTENTS Table of Contents...IV List of Maps...IV List of Charts... V List of Tables...VI About This Report... VII Executive Summary... VIII Population...1 Socio-Economics...13 Educational Attainment...20 School Enrollment...27 Student Characteristics...35 Appendix: County Economics-- Employment and Earnings in Top Industries...41 Northern Wisconsin Higher Education Initiative: Demographic Profile III

4 LIST OF MAPS Map 1 Population Density (2007) by Municipality...3 Map 2 Median Household Income (1999) by Municipality...14 Map 3 Population in Poverty (1999) by Municipality...16 Map 4 Population with No High School Degree (2000) by Municipality...21 Map 5 Population with No Higher Education Degree (2000) by Municipality...22 Map 6 Population with No Bachelor s Degree (2000) by Municipality...23 Map 7 Population Currently Enrolled in Higher Education (2000) by Municipality...28 Map 8 School Enrollment Change ( ) by School District...30 Map 9 Enrollment in AP Courses ( ) by School District...35 Map 10 Post-Graduation Plans to Pursue a Vocational or Technical Degree (2005) by School District...38 Map 11 Post-Graduation Plans to Pursue a 4-Year College Degree by School District...39 Northern Wisconsin Higher Education Initiative: Demographic Profile IV

5 LIST OF CHARTS Chart 1 Population Distribution (2007) by County...1 Chart 2 Components of Population Change ( ) by County and Region... 4 Chart 3 Projected Population Change ( ) by County...5 Chart 4A Age Structure (2006) Northern Region...7 Chart 4B Age Structure (2006 & 2010) Northern Region...8 Chart 4C Age Structure (2006 & 2020) Northern Region...9 Chart 5A Age Structure (2006 & 2020) Northwest Sub-Region...10 Chart 5B Age Structure (2006 & 2020) Northcentral Sub-Region...11 Chart 5C Age Structure (2006 & 2020) Northeast Sub-Region...12 Chart 6 Drive Time to Work (2000) by Region and Sub-Region...19 Chart 7 Educational Attainment by Age (2000) Northern Region...25 Chart 8 Public School Students (K-12) by Grade (2006) Northern Region...29 Chart 9 Public K-12 School Enrollment ( ) by Region and Sub-Region...32 Chart 10 Public Elementary School Enrollment ( ) by Region and Sub-Region...33 Chart 11 Public Middle School Enrollment ( ) by Region and Sub-Region...33 Chart 12 Public High School Enrollment ( ) by Region and Sub-Region...34 Chart 13 Post-Graduation Plans for High School Seniors (2005) by Region and Sub-Region...37 Northern Wisconsin Higher Education Initiative: Demographic Profile V

6 LIST OF TABLES Table 1 Population Density (2007) by County and Region...2 Table 2 Median Household Income (2004) by County and Region Table 3 Population in Poverty (2004) by County and Region Table 4 Industry of Employment ( ) Northern Region Table 5 Total Employment (Quarter 1, ) by County and Region Table 6 Educational Attainment for Population Age (2000) by County and Region Table 7 Educational Attainment by Age (2000) by County and Region Table 8 Population Projections by Educational Attainment by Age ( ) Northern Region Table 9 Projected Population Age without a Higher Education Degree ( ) by County and Region Table 10 Persons Enrolled in College or Graduate School (2000) by County and Region Table 11 Public K-12 School Enrollment Change ( ) by School District Table 12 Enrollment in AP and CAPP Courses ( ) by School District Table 13 Post-Graduation Plans for High School Seniors by County (5-Year ) Northern Wisconsin Higher Education Initiative: Demographic Profile VI

7 ABOUT THIS REPORT This report profiles population characteristics for the northern tier of Wisconsin counties with special attention to the population who does not have a higher education degree. The Applied Population Laboratory at the University of Wisconsin Madison prepared this report for the Northern Wisconsin Higher Education (NOW) Initiative that was charged with examining need for and interest in higher education opportunities in northern Wisconsin. This report provides a demographic backdrop for decisionmaking and planning related to locating higher education opportunities in northern Wisconsin. Funding for this project has been provided through the office of the Chancellor, UW Colleges/UW Extension. For the purposes of this report, northern Wisconsin is defined as the seventeen counties north of (and including) Highway 8 that runs east-west across the northern part of the state. This includes the following counties: Ashland, Barron, Bayfield, Burnett, Douglas, Florence, Forest, Iron, Lincoln, Marinette, Oneida, Polk, Price, Rusk, Sawyer, Vilas, and Washburn. The data for this report are organized into five content sections: population, socio-economics, educational attainment, school enrollment, and student characteristics. Each section contains maps, charts, and tables used to succinctly summarize the data, as well as brief descriptions in text. The main data sources for this report are Census 2000, population projections and estimates from the Wisconsin Department of Administration (2007), and enrollment and student characteristic data from the Wisconsin Department of Public Instruction. Attached to each of the tables and figures is a footnote indicating the data source used to create the graphic. For more information or comments about this report please contact: Applied Population Laboratory Richelle Winkler: (608) (rwinkler@ssc.wisc.edu) Special thanks to Sarah Kemp, Dan Haueter, Bill Buckingham, and Dan Veroff (all of the Applied Population Lab) and to Margaret Cleek, Jim Veninga, and the other members of the NOW Task Force for their collaboration on this project. Northern Wisconsin Higher Education Initiative: Demographic Profile VII

8 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Northern Region encompasses seventeen counties in northern Wisconsin that fall north of and including Highway 8: Ashland, Barron, Bayfield, Burnett, Douglas, Florence, Forest, Iron, Lincoln, Marinette, Oneida, Polk, Price, Rusk, Sawyer, Vilas, and Washburn. Currently, there are two institutions in the Northern Region that grant Bachelor s degrees University of Wisconsin at Superior and Northland College in Ashland. Other higher educational institutions in the Northern Region include: Lac Courte Oreilles Ojibwa Community College in Hayward, Nicolet Area Technical College in Rhinelander, Philadelphia Biblical University- Wisconsin Wilderness in Cable, Wisconsin Indianhead Technical College in Shell Lake, a Northcentral Technical College branch in Phillips, UW- Barron County in Rice Lake, and UW- Marinette in Marinette. According to the Wisconsin Department of Administration population estimates, 412,496 people lived in the northern tier of Wisconsin on July 1, The Region accounts for about 7% of the total State of Wisconsin population. The Northern Region is a sparsely populated area of Wisconsin, with most of the population concentrated in Barron, Polk, Marinette, and Douglas Counties. The population of the Northern Region is growing due to net in-migration. At the same time, however, the Region is aging, and it has experienced more deaths than births in recent years. The population is projected to continue to grow over the next several years, except for in Iron and Price Counties where the population is projected to decline slightly. Socioeconomically, circumstances tend to be better in the western part of the Northern Region than in the eastern part. Overall, in 2004 median household income in the Northern Region was estimated at $39,703. An estimated 11% of the total population was in poverty. Manufacturing employs more people in the Northern Region than any other economic sector. It is followed by: retail trade, health care and social assistance, accommodation and food services, and educational services. The fastest growing industries include: professional, scientific and technical services; real estate and rental and leasing; and finance and insurance. Northern Wisconsin Higher Education Initiative: Demographic Profile VIII

9 Total employment in the first quarter of the year fell by 0.5% in the Northern Region between 2002 and Iron County experienced the most significant decline in employment (- 16%); while Ashland, Polk, Price, and Sawyer Counties experienced significant employment growth. Educational attainment in the Northern Region lags behind the State of Wisconsin total. At Census 2000, 76% of the population age in the Northern Region had not completed any higher education degree, compared to only 70% for the State of Wisconsin as a whole. Looking specifically at Bachelor s degrees, only 14% of Northern Region residents age had completed a Bachelor s degree, compared to 21% for the State. With the exception of Polk County, the number of year olds without a higher education degree is projected to decline over the next several years, as the population ages. Current enrollment of young adults in college or graduate school in the Northern Region tends to be concentrated in counties with University of Wisconsin System campuses. Enrollment of older adults in higher education is more widespread across Northern Wisconsin. Public school enrollment in grades K-12 in the Northern Region declined by 9.3% between Fall 2001 and Fall Such decline is expected to continue over the next several years. The decline is less severe in the western part of the Northern Region, particularly in Polk County. Between 2001 and 2005, an average of 39% of high school seniors in the Northern Region planned to pursue a 4-year college degree. This compares to 46% of high school seniors who plan to pursue a 4-year degree in the State of Wisconsin as a whole. School districts with the largest average annual number of 12 th grade students planning to pursue a Bachelor s degree included: Merrill Area in Lincoln County (n=127), Rice Lake Area in Barron County (n=123), Superior in Douglas County (n=122), Rhinelander in Oneida County (n=115), Marinette in Marinette County (n=93), Lakeland Union in Oneida County (n=78), Ashland in Ashland County (n=75), Amery (n=67) and Osceola (n=66) in Polk County, Hayward Community in Sawyer County (n=65), Tomahawk in Lincoln County (n=60), Spooner in Hayward County (n=59), Northland Pines in Vilas County (n=58), and Maple in Douglas County (n=52). Looking only at high school seniors who were scheduled to graduate in 2005, 21% planned to attend a vocational or technical college. Students in the Rhinelander School District were most likely to be taking courses for college credit (AP or CAPP) while in high school in Northern Wisconsin Higher Education Initiative: Demographic Profile IX

10 POPULATION According to the Wisconsin Department of Administration population estimates, 412,496 people lived in the northern tier of Wisconsin on July 1, The Region accounts for about 7% of the total State of Wisconsin population. Chart 1 and Table 1 show population distribution for the Region by county. A large share of the people in the Region lives in Barron, Polk, Marinette, and Douglas Counties. Together, these counties are home to about 44% of the population in the Northern Region. Barron is the most densely populated county in the Region with an average of 55 persons per square mile. Very few people live in Florence, Forest, and Iron Counties, with Iron County being the least populated and having a population density of only 9 persons per square mile. Chart 1: Population Distribution, ,000 50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Ashland Barron Bayfield Burnett Douglas Florence Forest Iron Lincoln Marinette Oneida Polk Price Rusk Sawyer Vilas Washburn Source: Wisconsin Department of Administration Demographic Services, Population Estimates, 2007 Northern Wisconsin Higher Education Initiative: Demographic Profile 1

11 POPULATION Table 1: Population Density, 2007 Population Land Area (sq mile) Population Density Ashland 16, Barron 47, Bayfield 15,990 1, Burnett 16, Douglas 44,096 1, Florence 5, Forest 10,329 1, Iron 7, Lincoln 30, Marinette 44,646 1, Oneida 38,600 1, Polk 45, Price 16,069 1, Rusk 15, Sawyer 17,542 1, Vilas 22, Washburn 17, Northern Region 412,496 16, Source: Wisconsin Department of Administration, Population Estimates, 2007 Northern Wisconsin Higher Education Initiative: Demographic Profile 2

12 POPULATION The map below shows population distribution across northern Wisconsin by municipality (cities, villages, and towns). This view highlights variation within counties. The majority of the landscape in the Northern Region consists of relatively sparsely settled towns. However, it is dotted throughout with higher density small cities and villages. The darker shading in the more southwestern and southeastern counties suggests exurbanization radiating out from the Twin Cities and Green Bay metropolitan areas. Map 1: Population Density (2007) by Municipality Source: Wisconsin Department of Administration Demographic Services, Population Estimates, 2007 Northern Wisconsin Higher Education Initiative: Demographic Profile 3

13 POPULATION Examining population trends in the recent past and projected population growth for the future offers a window into how the population is changing. Local population increase or decline is determined by the interaction between births and deaths (natural increase) and in- and out- migration (net migration). Chart 2 shows how these components of population change have balanced one another in recent years by showing the percent of overall population change (in gray), the percent of change due to natural increase (in blue), and the percent of change due to net migration (in red). Overall, the Northern Region grew by 19,166 people (almost 5%) between 2000 and This growth was entirely due to migration, as deaths outnumbered births. In fact, the Region experienced 1,866 more deaths than births, but at the same time, it experienced substantial in-migration. Chart 2: Components of Population Change, Region Ashland Barron Bayfield Natual Increase Net Migration Population Change Burnett Douglas Florence Forest Iron Lincoln Marinette Oneida Polk Price Rusk Sawyer Vilas Washburn 5% 3% 1% 1% 3% 5% 7% 9% 11% Source: Wisconsin Dept. of Administration, Preliminary Estimated Components of Population Change, Polk County experienced the most rapid rate of population increase, experiencing both natural increase and positive net migration to grow overall by 10.4%. Vilas, Washburn, and Polk Counties all experienced population growth of over 9% due exclusively to net in-migration. Even in Iron County, where population change due to natural increase declined by almost 5%, net in-migration was prevalent enough to balance out the lack of births, and the overall population grew by about 2%. Ashland County experienced the least population change with very little net migration. Northern Wisconsin Higher Education Initiative: Demographic Profile 4

14 POPULATION Population projections suggest that the Northern Region will experience population increase over the next several years (see Chart 3). Based on the Wisconsin Department of Administration s population estimates of 2007 population and projections of 2020 population, the Northern Region is expected to grow by about 13,350 people (3.2%) in the next thirteen years. The distribution of population across the Northern Region is projected to remain similar, as the counties currently having the highest populations are projected to increase the most. Polk County alone is projected to increase by almost 4,000 residents. Douglas, Barron, and Ashland Counties are also projected to experience substantial growth. Iron, Price, and Vilas Counties, on the other hand, are projected to decline. Chart 3: Projected Population Change, ,500 4,000 Polk 3,500 3,000 2,500 Douglas 2,000 Barron 1,500 Ashland 1, Bayfield Burnett Florence Forest Lincoln Marinette Oneida Rusk Sawyer Washburn Iron Price Vilas Sources: Wisconsin Dept. of Administration, Population Projections 2003 and Population Estimates 2007 Northern Wisconsin Higher Education Initiative: Demographic Profile 5

15 POPULATION When comparing 2020 population projections that were produced in 2003 to 2007 population estimates produced in 2007, it is important to note that in some cases population change has occurred in the last four years faster than had been anticipated when the projections were produced. This means that for some counties, population projections for 2020 and projected change between 2007 and 2020 (as shown here) will be too low. For instance, in 2003 the Wisconsin Department of Administration Demographic Services Center projected that Vilas County population would increase slowly and steadily between 2000 and Since 2003, population in Vilas County has grown faster than anticipated and already in 2007 is higher than what the Demographic Services Center had projected for This circumstance means that while Chart 3 shows projected population decline for Vilas County, Vilas County is probably most likely to continue to experience population growth. Similar to the situation in Vilas County, some of the fastest growing counties (particularly Polk, Washburn, Sawyer, Burnett, and Bayfield) are likely to experience even more population growth than was projected and is shown in Chart 3 here. The remaining northern counties (including Price and Iron), on the other hand, have experienced more similar population trends to what was projected in 2003 and remain generally on track to realize their 2020 projections. Northern Wisconsin Higher Education Initiative: Demographic Profile 6

16 POPULATION Knowing more about the age structure of the population is one of the most informative ways to better understand how a population is changing and what services and programs are (and will be) in demand. The following charts are what demographers refer to as population pyramids. They illustrate the population by 5-year age groups and by sex. The female population is shown on the right side of the pyramid, while the male population is shown on the left. The youngest ages are at the bottom of the pyramid, while the oldest are at the top. When a population is growing due to natural increase, the shape of the population pyramid resembles a pyramid (wide at the bottom and thin on top), hence the name. The charts below use data from the U.S. Census Bureau population estimates by age and sex for counties in 2006 and population projections by age and sex for counties from the Wisconsin Department of Demographic Services for 2010 and 2020 to show current and projected age structure of the Northern Region of Wisconsin. Because ages are of special interest to the Northern Initiative Task Force, they are highlighted in dark red. Chart 4A Age Structure, 2006 Northern Region 85plus 80 to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to 14 5 to 9 Under 5 Males Females 20,000 16,000 12,000 8,000 4, ,000 8,000 12,000 16,000 20,000 Number of People Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates by Age, Sex, and County, Northern Wisconsin Higher Education Initiative: Demographic Profile 7

17 POPULATION Chart 4A shows age structure in 2006 for the Northern Region as a whole. The impact of the Baby Boom generation can be seen in the bulges at ages (Baby Boomers) and ages (children of the Baby Boomers, or Boomlet). The Bust generation is marked at about ages The smaller number of children under age 10 in the population is due to a combination of the small cohorts of the Baby Bust generation being in their prime child-bearing years over the last ten years, the tendency of women to have fewer children today than in the past, and out-migration of young adults from the Region. Chart 4B is the same chart as Chart 4A, except that it has the projected age structure of the Northern Region for 2010 overlaid in hollow bars over the top of the 2006 age structure. This allows for a visual comparison between current and projected future age structure. The projected graying of the population in the Northern Region is more evident in this chart, as the large cohorts of the Baby Boom generation grow older. Chart 4B Age Structure, 2006 & 2010 Northern Region 85plus 80 to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to 14 5 to 9 Under 5 Males Females 20,000 16,000 12,000 8,000 4, ,000 8,000 12,000 16,000 20,000 Number of People 2006 Estimates 2010 Projections Sources: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates by Age, Sex, and County (2006), and Wisconsin Dept. of Administration, Population Projections 2010 (produced in 2003). Northern Wisconsin Higher Education Initiative: Demographic Profile 8

18 POPULATION Chart 4C compares the 2006 age structure of the Northern Region to the projected age structure for In 2020, the graying of the population is even more apparent. In fact, the number of males age is projected to be more than double the number of males in this age group in 2006, and the total population over age 60 is projected to account for about one third of the entire population. Chart 4C Age Structure, 2006 & 2020 Northern Region 85plus 80 to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to 14 5 to 9 Under 5 Males Females 20,000 16,000 12,000 8,000 4, ,000 8,000 12,000 16,000 20,000 Number of People 2006 Estimates 2020 Projections Sources: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates by Age, Sex, and County (2006), and Wisconsin Dept. of Administration, Population Projections 2020 (produced in 2003). Northern Wisconsin Higher Education Initiative: Demographic Profile 9

19 POPULATION Charts 5A, 5B, and 5C offer the same comparison at the sub-region level, splitting the Northern Region into the Northwest (Barron, Burnett, Douglas, Polk, and Washburn Counties), Northcentral (Ashland, Bayfield, Iron, Lincoln, Oneida, Price, Rusk, Sawyer, and Vilas Counties), and Northeast (Florence, Forest, and Marinette Counties). Note: The scale for the Sub-Regions differs from the Northern Region as a whole, and between the different Sub-Regions. Focusing on the year age group, numbers are projected to be similar, but somewhat less in 2010 and 2020 than they were in 2006 for the Northern Region as a whole and for each of the Sub-Regions. Chart 5A Age Structure, 2006 & 2020 Northwest Sub Region 85plus 80 to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to 14 5 to 9 Under 5 Males Females 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, ,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 Number of People 2006 Estimates 2020 Projections Sources: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates by Age, Sex, and County (2006), and Wisconsin Dept. of Administration, Population Projections 2010 (produced in 2003). Northern Wisconsin Higher Education Initiative: Demographic Profile 10

20 POPULATION Chart 5B Age Structure, 2006 & 2020 North Central Sub Region 85plus 80 to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to 14 5 to 9 Under 5 Males Females 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, ,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 Number of People 2006 Estimates 2020 Projections Sources: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates by Age, Sex, and County (2006), and Wisconsin Dept. of Administration, Population Projections 2010 (produced in 2003). Northern Wisconsin Higher Education Initiative: Demographic Profile 11

21 POPULATION Chart 5C Age Structure, 2006 & 2020 Northeast Sub Region 85plus 80 to to to to to to to to to to to to to to to 14 5 to 9 Under 5 Males Females 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, ,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 Number of People 2006 Estimates 2020 Projections Sources: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates by Age, Sex, and County (2006), and Wisconsin Dept. of Administration, Population Projections 2010 (produced in 2003). To summarize, the Northern Region overall is a sparsely populated area of Wisconsin, with most of the population concentrated in Barron, Polk, Marinette, and Douglas Counties. The population is growing due to net in-migration. At the same time, however, the Region experienced more deaths than births between 2000 and The population of the Northern Region (with an estimated median age of 42.6 in 2006) is significantly older than the population in the State of Wisconsin as a whole (estimated median age= 37.6), and the population of the Northern Region is projected to get significantly more gray over the next several years. Northern Wisconsin Higher Education Initiative: Demographic Profile 12

22 SOCIO-ECONOMICS This section offers an overview of economic conditions in northern Wisconsin. Here, we examine income, poverty, employment, and drive times to work at the municipal, county, and regional levels. Table 2 shows median household income in 2004 by county and the weighted average of median household income for the Northern Region overall. More rural areas tend to have lower incomes than more urban ones. This observation is demonstrated by the fact that median income is significantly lower in the Northern Region ($39,703) than in the State of Wisconsin as a whole ($46,142). Also, the most populous counties in the Northern Region generally have median incomes above the regional average (e.g. Polk, Barron, and Marinette Counties). Polk County has the highest median income, because of its proximity to Minneapolis/St. Paul and commuting patterns into Minnesota cities. Table 2: Median Household Income, 2004 Dollars Ashland 34,475 Barron 39,789 Bayfield 37,899 Burnett 38,113 Douglas 38,694 Florence 38,316 Forest 34,637 Iron 33,236 Lincoln 43,234 Marinette 39,569 Oneida 42,833 Polk 46,535 Price 39,348 Rusk 34,468 Sawyer 36,521 Vilas 37,152 Washburn 37,145 Northern Region 39,703 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates, Northern Wisconsin Higher Education Initiative: Demographic Profile 13

23 SOCIO-ECONOMICS Map 2 examines variation within counties in median household income at Census 2000 by disaggregating to the municipal level (cities, villages, and towns). Median income is highest in southwestern Polk County (nearest the Twin Cities), southern Lincoln County (around Merrill), and southeastern Marinette County (closer to the Green Bay Metro Area). Income is lowest in the Towns of Namakagon (Bayfield County), Somo (Lincoln County), Gordon (Ashland County), and Couderay (Sawyer County); in the villages of Exeland and Winter (Sawyer County), Birchwood (Washburn County), and Siren (Burnett County); and in the City of Eagle River (Vilas County). Map 2: Median Household Income (1999) by Municipality Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Summary File 3, Northern Wisconsin Higher Education Initiative: Demographic Profile 14

24 SOCIO-ECONOMICS Table 3 shows the estimated number and percent of people in poverty in 2004 by county and for the Northern Region. Ashland and Douglas Counties have the highest percentages of the population in poverty, while Polk and Lincoln Counties have the lowest. Looking at the number of people in poverty, Douglas, Barron, and Marinette Counties together have a total of 15,417 people experiencing poverty. These counties alone account for 36% of the total number of people in poverty in the Northern Region. Table 3: Population in Poverty, 2004 Number Percent Ashland 2, Barron 5, Bayfield 1, Burnett 1, Douglas 5, Florence Forest 1, Iron Lincoln 2, Marinette 4, Oneida 3, Polk 3, Price 1, Rusk 1, Sawyer 2, Vilas 2, Washburn 1, Northern Region 43, Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates (2004), and U.S. Census Bureau Annual Estimates of the Population (2004). Northern Wisconsin Higher Education Initiative: Demographic Profile 15

25 SOCIO-ECONOMICS The map of poverty at the municipal level shows that municipalities with a larger minority population tend to be higher in poverty. For instance, in the Town of Blackwell (Forest County), where there is a substantial African American population, 63% of the population was in poverty at Census American Indian Reservations also tend to have high poverty rates, particularly in the Town of Russell in Bayfield County (Red Cliff Tribe 29% poverty) and the Town of Sanborn in Ashland County (Bad River Tribe 27% poverty). The Towns of Lawrence in Rusk County, Georgetown in Price County, Gordon in Ashland County, and the Villages of Minong in Washburn County and Wausaukee in Marinette County (all with almost entirely Non-Hispanic White populations) also have high poverty rates (23-24%). Map 3: Population in Poverty (1999) by Municipality Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Summary File 3, Northern Wisconsin Higher Education Initiative: Demographic Profile 16

26 SOCIO-ECONOMICS Because most people pursue higher education in order to achieve employment goals, having a sense for how employment is changing over time and by industry in the Northern Region should add perspective to demand for higher education in this Region. What industries employ the most people? Which are increasing and which are declining? What areas of the Northern Region employ the most people? Which are employing increasing numbers of people? Tables 4 and 5 address these questions by examining total employment in the first quarter of the year in the Northern Region between 2002 and 2006 by NAICS industry sector (Table 4) and by county (Table 5). In the Northern Region, manufacturing employs more people than any other industry sector. The next highest ranking industries include: (2) retail trade, (3) health care and social assistance, (4) accommodation and food services, and (5) educational services. Of these sectors, manufacturing (-0.5%), retail trade (- 2.5%), and educational services (-4.8%) each declined in the number employed between 2002 and Health care and social assistance (+4.0%) and accommodation and food services (+1.2%), on the other hand, saw increasing employment over this time period. The fastest growing industries in the Region included: professional, scientific, and technical services (+22%), real estate and rental and leasing (+15.2%), and finance and insurance (+11.8%). Table 4: Industry of Employment for the Northern Region, Total Employment in Quarter 1 Employment Change NAICS Industry Sector % Change Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting 1,731 1,683 1,671 1,719 1, % Mining % Utilities % Construction 7,505 6,849 6,558 6,502 6, % Manufacturing 34,742 33,927 32,579 33,786 34, % Wholesale Trade 4,477 4,583 4,313 4,506 5, % Retail Trade 23,111 22,294 21,939 22,368 22, % Transportation and Warehousing 5,418 5,341 5,797 5,500 5, % Information 3,150 3,098 3,185 2,942 2, % Finance and Insurance 3,922 3,938 4,086 4,208 4, % Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 1,330 1,377 1,415 1,469 1, % Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services 2,561 2,688 2,850 3,173 3, % Management of Companies and Enterprises % Administrative, Support, and Waste Management Services 4,226 4,594 3,926 4,055 3, % Educational Services 14,858 14,486 14,054 14,016 14, % Health Care and Social Assistance 19,088 19,025 19,465 19,694 19, % Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 4,425 4,371 4,450 4,604 4, % Accommodation and Food Services 17,019 16,293 16,535 17,221 17, % Other Services (except Public Administration) 5,543 4,820 4,936 5,114 4, % Public Administration 13,253 13,433 13,294 13,068 13, % All NAICS Sectors 168, , , , , % Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Quarterly Workforce Indicators ( ), Quarter 1 Obtained from the Cornell Restricted Access Data Center in October of 2007 Northern Wisconsin Higher Education Initiative: Demographic Profile 17

27 SOCIO-ECONOMICS Table 5 shows the number of people employed in each county within the Northern Region. Ashland, Polk, Price, Forest, Sawyer, and Washburn Counties saw employment increases between 2002 and Most of the other counties saw little employment change or moderate declines in the number employed. Iron (-16%), Marinette (-7%), Rusk (-5%), Lincoln (-5%), and Florence (-4%) Counties experienced more substantial decline. Overall, counties on the western side of the Region tended to experience employment growth, while counties on the eastern side of the Region tended to experience decline. This may be related to the proximity of the western part of the Region to the Minneapolis/St. Paul Metropolitan Area. More detailed information about employment by industry sector and by more specific industries (within sectors) can be found for each county within the Northern Region in the appendix to this report. Table 5: Employment by County, Total Employment in Quarter 1 Employment Change County % Change Ashland 8,639 8,574 8,667 8,936 9, % Barron 23,709 22,704 21,884 21,926 23, % Bayfield 3,803 3,655 3,731 3,773 3, % Burnett 5,333 5,651 5,881 5,826 5, % Douglas 17,300 17,394 17,330 16,604 17, % Florence 1,181 1,199 1, , % Forest 3,369 3,403 3,473 3,624 3, % Iron 2,393 2,232 2,172 2,248 2, % Lincoln 12,299 12,048 12,025 11,974 11, % Marinette 21,325 20,736 19,619 19,916 19,906 1, % Oneida 18,435 17,101 16,668 17,306 18, % Polk 15,720 14,995 16,083 17,091 16,824 1, % Price 6,812 6,931 6,941 7,551 7, % Rusk 6,288 6,223 5,924 6,066 5, % Sawyer 7,155 7,077 7,126 7,492 7, % Vilas 8,354 8,434 8,545 8,912 8, % Washburn 5,735 5,922 5,400 5,444 6, % Northern Region 167, , , , , % Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Quarterly Workforce Indicators ( ), Quarter 1 Obtained from the Cornell Restricted Access Data Center in October of 2007 Northern Wisconsin Higher Education Initiative: Demographic Profile 18

28 SOCIO-ECONOMICS Chart 6 examines drive times to work (one-way) for the population who does not work at home using data from Census The chart shows this for the Region as a whole and for the three Sub-Regions. For the Region as a whole, about 77% of the population drives less than 30 minutes to work each way. The population driving an hour or more each way is about 6.5%. People in the Northwest part of the Northern Region tend to have the longest drive times. Here, only 73% drive less than 30 minutes each way and over 8% drive an hour or more. This may reflect commuting patterns of working in the Minneapolis/St. Paul Metropolitan Area. It is in the Northcentral part of the Northern Region where workers tend to have the shortest drive times, with 80% of the population driving 30 minutes or less. Chart 6: Drive Time to Work by Region and Sub region, % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Region Northwest North central Northeast Less than 30 minutes minutes minutes 60 or more minutes Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Summary File 3, Census 2000 In summary, the socioeconomic circumstances in the Northern Region tend to be better off in the western part of the Region than in either the central or eastern part. Northern Wisconsin Higher Education Initiative: Demographic Profile 19

29 Educational Attainment This section examines educational attainment for the population age 18 and over in the Northern Region at Census 2000 and projected educational attainment for 2010 and In order to estimate the target population for higher educational services, we emphasize the population between the ages of 18 and 44 without a high school degree, without an Associate s degree, and without a Bachelor s degree. Table 6 shows the number and percent of the population age 18 to 44 who have not reached these different degrees of educational attainment by county, as measured at Census For the Region as a whole, only 13% of year olds have not completed a high school degree program. On the other hand, the proportion of year olds that has not completed any higher education degree is high in the Region-- 76% have not completed an Associate s degree, and 86% have not completed a Bachelor s degree. In comparison to the State of Wisconsin as a whole, high school graduate percentages are similar, but the percentages of adults age without higher education degrees in Northern Wisconsin is significantly higher than for the state overall. For the state, 12.6% have not completed a high school degree, 70.2% have not completed an Associate s degree, and 79.0% have not completed a Bachelor s degree. Table 6: Educational Attainment for Population Age Less than High School No Associate's Degree No Bachelor's Degree Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Ashland % 4, % 5, % Barron 2, % 11, % 13, % Bayfield % 3, % 3, % Burnett % 3, % 4, % Douglas 1, % 12, % 14, % Florence % 1, % 1, % Forest % 2, % 2, % Iron % 1, % 1, % Lincoln 1, % 7, % 9, % Marinette 1, % 11, % 12, % Oneida 1, % 8, % 9, % Polk 1, % 10, % 12, % Price % 3, % 4, % Rusk % 4, % 4, % Sawyer % 3, % 4, % Vilas % 4, % 4, % Washburn % 3, % 4, % Region Total 16, % 100, % 113, % Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Summary File 4, Census Note: these figures include 18 to 25 year olds who may not yet have had a chance to complete degree programs. Northern Wisconsin Higher Education Initiative: Demographic Profile 20

30 Educational Attainment Bayfield and Oneida Counties have the highest percent of the population who have completed some higher education in the Northern Region, while Forest, Rusk, Marinette, and Florence Counties have the lowest percentage of the population who have completed a higher education degree. Overall, at Census 2000, there were about 234,081 people aged living in the Northern Region who had not completed an Associate s degree, and an additional 21,419 people who had not completed a Bachelor s degree. Maps 4 6 show the distribution of educational attainment across the Northern Region by municipality. Areas of Bayfield, Vilas, and Oneida Counties tend to have a higher proportion of people that have completed degrees. The eastern part of the Region tends to have lower proportions of people that have completed degrees. Map 4: Population with No High School Degree (2000) by Municipality Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Summary File 4, Census 2000 Northern Wisconsin Higher Education Initiative: Demographic Profile 21

31 Educational Attainment Map 5: Population with No Higher Education Degree (2000) by Municipality Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Summary File 4, Census 2000 Northern Wisconsin Higher Education Initiative: Demographic Profile 22

32 Educational Attainment Map 6: Population with No Bachelor s Degree (2000) by Municipality Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Summary File 4, Census 2000 Northern Wisconsin Higher Education Initiative: Demographic Profile 23

33 Educational Attainment Table 7 shows the population with no Associate s or Bachelor s degree by age group for counties within the Northern Region. At Census 2000, there were approximately 45,670 people age in the Northern Region with no higher education degree. This ten year age group encompassed the largest population without a higher education degree 2. There are two main reasons for the large numbers of people without a higher education degree in this particular age group first, some of the large cohorts of the Baby Boom generation fell between these ages in 2000, meaning that there are more people overall in this age group than other age categories; second, older people tend to have lower education levels than younger people meaning that in the younger cohorts, a higher percentage of people pursued a higher education degree. Table 7: Educational Attainment by Age, 2000 Population with No Higher Education Degree (Associate's or Bachelor's) plus % of Total Pop Ashland 1,622 1,243 1,847 2,618 2,417 4, % Barron 3,240 3,279 5,240 7,815 6,573 11, % Bayfield ,501 2,875 1,970 3, % Burnett 867 1,041 1,767 3,448 2,795 3, % Douglas 3,956 3,392 4,811 7,131 5,477 12, % Florence , , % Forest ,175 1,971 1,769 2, % Iron ,405 1,405 1, % Lincoln 1,752 2,508 3,632 5,510 4,133 7, % Marinette 3,302 2,915 5,511 8,663 6,965 11, % Oneida 1,895 2,552 4,109 6,896 5,775 8, % Polk 2,482 3,322 5,022 7,606 5,437 10, % Price 797 1,087 1,842 3,193 2,774 3, % Rusk 1,153 1,196 1,789 2,897 2,637 4, % Sawyer 893 1,135 1,930 3,223 2,436 3, % Vilas 959 1,345 2,209 4,402 3,943 4, % Washburn 904 1,101 1,829 3,224 2,577 3, % Northern Region 25,893 28,642 45,670 73,980 59, , % Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Summary File 4, Census Note: The and 65 plus age groups represent more than ten years of age. Northern Wisconsin Higher Education Initiative: Demographic Profile 24

34 Educational Attainment Similarly, Chart 7 shows educational attainment by age group in the Northern Region. Note that in the year age group, several people may have been enrolled (or planning to enroll) in degree programs at the time of Census 2000, but not yet completed a degree. This makes results for the year age group difficult to interpret. For ages 25 and over, the younger age groups tend to have higher educational attainment, except that year olds are more likely to have obtained a Bachelor s degree (but less likely to have obtained an Associate s degree) than either or year olds. Chart 7: Educational Attainment by Age 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% and over Total (18 44) Less than High School High School Degree Associate Degree Bachelor Degree Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Summary File 4, Census 2000 Tables 8 and 9 show population projections by educational attainment for the Northern Region. These projections were completed by the Applied Population Laboratory, and they rely on a basic share methodology. First, we assume that educational attainment rates by age that were observed at Census 2000 will remain stable into the future for year olds, and that rates for year olds after 2010 will equal rates for year olds in Second, we apply these rates by age to total population projections by age generated by the Wisconsin Department of Administration Demographic Services. This method produces projections of educational attainment based on the age structure of the population and rates of educational attainment. Northern Wisconsin Higher Education Initiative: Demographic Profile 25

35 Educational Attainment Table 8: Population Projections by Educational Attainment by Age ( ) Total Population: Age Population with No Associate's Degree Population with No Bachelor's Degree Census Projection Census Projection Census Projection Age Group ,640 33,286 31,576 27,841 25,893 30,093 28,548 25,171 27,659 32,146 30,495 26, ,210 40,280 46,617 50,834 28,642 27,996 32,400 35,331 33,450 32,695 37,839 41, ,562 54,971 46,751 45,155 45,670 39,493 31,791 30,705 52,383 45,697 37,401 36,124 Total (18 44) 131, , , , ,205 97,582 92,738 91, , , , ,273 Source: Calculated by the Applied Population Lab, October 2007 Based off data from U.S. Census Bureau, Summary File 4, Census 2000 and Wisconsin Dept. of Administration Demographic Services, Population Projections by Age Table 9: Projected Population Age without a Higher Education Degree ( ) Total Population: Age Population with No Associate's Degree Population with No Bachelor's Degree County Ashland 6,235 6,202 6,091 6,076 4,712 4,679 4,698 4,521 5,344 5,315 5,187 5,163 Barron 15,673 15,478 15,187 15,122 11,759 11,624 11,297 11,171 13,711 13,509 13,187 13,062 Bayfield 4,576 4,303 4,170 4,133 3,115 3,020 2,802 2,880 3,695 3,529 3,429 3,378 Burnett 4,572 4,458 4,305 4,183 3,675 3,617 3,384 3,352 4,043 3,970 3,823 3,697 Douglas 16,563 16,328 15,980 16,041 12,159 11,978 12,083 11,655 14,139 13,925 13,554 13,595 Florence 1,646 1,545 1,436 1,354 1,332 1,266 1,070 1,099 1,458 1,382 1,283 1,203 Forest 3,173 3,118 2,980 2,842 2,704 2,690 2,459 2,431 2,907 2,886 2,755 2,619 Iron 2,100 1,974 1,830 1,746 1,578 1,492 1,350 1,318 1,848 1,741 1,617 1,537 Lincoln 10,339 10,015 9,707 9,630 7,892 7,733 7,237 7,388 9,096 8,866 8,578 8,494 Marinette 14,717 14,140 13,439 13,175 11,728 11,306 10,631 10,329 12,916 12,445 11,752 11,450 Oneida 11,821 11,476 11,186 11,096 8,556 8,513 8,035 8,174 9,695 9,587 9,368 9,244 Polk 14,207 14,290 14,301 14,662 10,826 11,022 10,861 11,209 12,161 12,342 12,340 12,601 Price 5,000 4,729 4,468 4,267 3,726 3,581 3,154 3,183 4,284 4,097 3,872 3,680 Rusk 5,019 4,903 4,735 4,599 4,138 4,033 3,836 3,759 4,538 4,417 4,258 4,123 Sawyer 4,960 4,905 4,800 4,750 3,958 3,953 3,770 3,776 4,333 4,304 4,199 4,117 Vilas 5,910 5,766 5,578 5,423 4,513 4,504 4,181 4,182 4,999 4,953 4,795 4,632 Washburn 4,901 4,849 4,703 4,710 3,834 3,839 3,630 3,691 4,325 4,308 4,172 4,152 Northern Region 131, , , , ,205 97,582 92,738 91, , , , ,273 Source: Calculated by the Applied Population Lab, October 2007 Based off data from U.S. Census Bureau, Summary File 4, Census 2000 and Wisconsin Dept. of Administration Demographic Services, Population Projections by Age Table 9 breaks educational attainment projections down by county. Because projection methodology is more consistent at the regional level, the projections for individual counties should not be considered as accurate as the Northern Region total, and county level projections will not sum exactly to the Region-wide projection. Overall, the population between the ages of without a higher education degree is projected to decline slightly over the next several years. This is largely because the total population age is projected to decline as the last of the Baby Boom generation ages out of these age groups. Polk County, where population growth of younger adults is projected to be high, is the one exception where the population without a higher education degree is projected to increase. To summarize, educational attainment in the Northern Region lags behind the State of Wisconsin overall. With the exception of Polk County, the number of year olds without a higher education degree is projected to decline over the next several years. Northern Wisconsin Higher Education Initiative: Demographic Profile 26

36 School Enrollment This section examines recent trends in school enrollment at the higher education and K-12 levels. First, enrollment in higher education programs is examined. This provides a general idea of the demand for higher education services in the Northern Region. Next, we analyze trends in K-12 school enrollment for school districts in the Northern Region with the idea that today s middle and high school students will constitute a primary target group for higher education services in the coming years. Table 10 shows the number and percent of people enrolled in college or graduate school at Census 2000 by age group by county. The youngest age group (18-24 year olds) makes up both the highest percentage (24%) and the largest number of students. Still, people at older ages constitute a substantial number of students as well, with about 7% of year olds being enrolled and about 4,250 people age 35 and over enrolled in college or graduate school in the Northern Region. Note: when reading this table, it is important to remember that college students are counted by the Census where they (not their parents) live. This is usually the county where they attend college, rather than their parents address (or what the student may consider home ). Table 10: Persons enrolled in College or Graduate School, over Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Ashland % % % Barron % % % Bayfield % % % Burnett % % % Douglas 1, % % % Florence % % % Forest % % % Iron % % % Lincoln % % % Marinette 1, % % % Oneida % % % Polk % % % Price % % % Rusk % % % Sawyer % % % Vilas % % % Washburn % % % Northern Region 6, % 2, % 4, % Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Summary File 4, Census 2000 Northern Wisconsin Higher Education Initiative: Demographic Profile 27