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1 Internet & New Economy Economics July 6, 2001 No. 16 conomics Internet revolution and new economy Internet trends in Japan: mobile business as a main driving force conomics is a special edition of Frankfurt Voice Author: Shunsuke Motani Editors: Klaus Papenbrock Antje Stobbe Technical Assistant: Diane Häge Internet: Frankfurt am Main Germany Fax: Managing Directors Axel Siedenberg Norbert Walter While still lagging behind the US and some European countries in terms of internet penetration, Japan has been catching up over the last few years. This holds true for both the provision of an efficient infrastructure and the penetration of internetready devices (PC, internet-connected mobiles). Much of the recent improvement is due to an unexpected boom in i-mode, Japan s dominant internet-enabled mobile phone service. Within two years after its inception, the number of i-mode subscribers has almost reached 25 million. As a result, unlike in other countries, in Japan mobile internet access is as important as fixed-line access via PCs. The success of i-mode has had positive spill-over effects on other areas. For example, it prompted further investment in the overall backbone infrastructure, resulting in faster internet access, both mobile and wire-based. Moreover, it boosted output at domestic mobile phone producers, allowing them to become more costcompetitive due to the exploitation of economies of scale. Despite the i-mode boom, B2C and B2B e-commerce is still in its infancy. As in other countries, B2C e-commerce is only progressing slowly and is concentrated in standardised products such as books and CDs. One important impediment to growth in B2B e-commerce is the tradition of Japanese companies joining together in keiretsu (closed networks of companies). While this obstacle is likely to become less important in the longer run as keiretsu bonds are weakening, it is a factor which has to be taken into account when assessing the short-run B2B potential. The government has launched an e-japan Strategy with the ambitious goal of increasing internet penetration and e-commerce significantly by Other important aims of this strategy are the realisation of e-government (i.e. online facilitation of all transactions which involve the government) and the improvement of education and skills in information technology. If these goals can be achieved, Japan will be among the most advanced internet nations in the world. However, other pre-conditions have also to be met. Above all, the availability of venture capital has to be improved in order to create a flourishing e-economy in Japan. In this context the collapse of the equity markets in 2000 was clearly a blow to the efforts to improve start-up finance. Shunsuke Motani,

2 conomics Available faster via !!! The issues of conomics are distributed as part of our Frankfurt Voice series. Internet trends in Japan: mobile business as a main driving force July 6, 2001 Software houses and IT services - growth sectors in the IT business May 18, 2001 Legal framework conditions for e-commerce: much ado about nothing? May 17, 2001 E-banking: competition from non and near-banks April 11, 2001 Electronic money - the payment instrument of the future? March 26, 2001 Embedded systems - An (inconspicuous) key technology February 20, 2001 in the ascendancy e-real Estate January 16, 2001 The Real Estate Sector in the Internet Age Emerging Asia: From hardware base to e-commerce space? November 7, 2000 M-commerce: mega business or Mickey Mouse? October 18, 2000 Finance portals: opportunities for customers and banks October 9, 2000 The moneyshelf report on selling financial services online Sweden and Finland: Pioneers of the new economy in Europe? October 6, 2000 The internet - a new general purpose technology? August 15, 2000 Microeconomic aspects of the internet economy August 9, 2000 New Economy in the USA: Fact or fiction? July 5, 2000 Regional starting positions in global e-competition May 22, 2000 E-Commerce: Catalyst for structural change in Germany April 18, 2000 For ordering, please contact: Marketing Frankfurt am Main Fax:

3 conomics Internet trends in Japan: mobile business as a main driving force The e-economy, in the few years since its inception, has already taken different development paths in different parts of the planet. While it is easy to draft a linear development model with the US running ahead and others just following further investigation shows a good number of variations in terms of technology and its deployment. Japan s case is just one of those examples. History of technology domestication Before turning to recent e-business developments in Japan, it is probably worth taking a look at Japan s technological history. Japan s modern history started with the radical absorption of Western technology in late 1860s. However, the Japanese method of domestication was very different from what was observed in the rest of Asia. Certainly, Japan invited a large number of top-tier engineers from Europe and the US just as most Asian countries did, but the engineer s pupils were asked to prepare textbooks in Japanese while learning themselves, so that they could train large numbers of engineers later at various levels without help from foreign instructors. In other Asian countries, particularly in China and India, technology was instead kept within the small, Englishspeaking elite. Mass training of domestic engineers and the decision to develop rather than buy technologies gave Japan a different growth path in the region and originality in the global context. One result was that in 1926 Japan developed the world s first electronic television using cathode ray technology. In the post-ww II period, Japanese industry turned further to electronics/ computing and automobiles mainly on the consumer front. The notable result was that almost all Japanese electronic giants are consumer companies: Hitachi and Toshiba, for instance, which produce electric turbines and nuclear reactors also produce tiny mobile phones and vacuum cleaners. This broad approach is certainly not favoured by the capital markets, which now prefer concentration on core businesses. But it adds a special consumer twist to every aspect of the Japanese IT (information technology) industry, which others believe is the key strength of Japan. Connectivity on the rise, but lagging behind in international comparison Turning now to the current Japanese high-tech landscape, it has often been said to have several characteristics: mobile-equipment-centric lagging in high bandwidth connections hardware-oriented high connection costs. A closer examination reveals, however, that these are not necessarily the dominant characteristics. Moreover, in those areas where Japan has been lagging the international development, improvements are underway. For instance, the penetration rate of internet-ready mobile phones is astounding, but PC penetration is rising at a rapid pace as well. Thus, internet access via fixed lines is also gaining importance. 51.9% of companies with more than 2,000 employees have introduced PCs worldwide per 100 inhabitants Italy Spain France Japan Germany UK Finland Denmark Norway Sweden USA Status: End of 2000 Source: EITO Mobile telephones worldwide per 100 inhabitants Finland Sweden Italy UK W. Europe Norway Spain Denmark Germany Japan USA Status: End of 2000 Source: EITO 2001 Economics 3

4 conomics company-wide use (i.e. all offices and branches of the company use the internet), but the number declines to 24.7% for companies with employees. While according to EITO only about 15% of the population were connected to the internet (wire-based) in 1999, the ratio is expected to double to almost one-third of the population in Nevertheless, connectivity via fixed lines in Japan is still the lowest within the G3 group. In Western Europe about 35% of the population will be online in 2001, only slightly more than in Japan; by contrast more than half of US citizens are online. The number of people using dial-up connections from fixed lines to the internet is currently growing by 40-50% per year in Japan. Assuming this pace will level off in the near future, the current US level of connectivity will probably be reached by 2003/4 as the chart indicates. This trend goes hand in hand with domestic private demand for computers rising sharply, despite other machinery orders being stagnant (chart). This is even more noteworthy as overall GDP growth in Japan is still dismal and private consumption has been increasing only very moderately. On the mobile front, growth is certainly even stronger. Until 1999 Japan was the clear worldwide leader in mobile phone penetration, but the country was outstripped in 2000 by Western Europe, where about 68% of the population have mobile contracts (about 47% in Japan). The by international comparison still high subscription rate is a reflection of the popularity of i-mode as an internet-access platform and, until recently, of high internet access charges via fixed lines in Japan. In less than two years from its inception, a whopping 36.9 million contracts (April 2001) for internet-connected mobile-phone services were sold (see chart next page). 1 This means that within the short period one out of four Japanese citizens bought the high-tech terminal, and in the under- 29 age group, the penetration rate is close to 70%. 2 The Japanese consumer thus clearly regards mobile internet access as an alternative to access via a PC. As regards bandwidth, the situation is improving. The connection speed via internet compatible mobile phones is comparable with a single ISDN (64Kb) channel; thus, average users who read mails and check stock prices or weather have no complaints. Moreover, almost a third of Japanese households had access to (fixed) ISDN channels in 2000, a level similar to the penetration rate in Europe. One weak point was the low penetration of internet access via cable TV in Japan. Introduced in 1996, it began to attract a significant number of users only in 1999, reaching 784,000 cable-modem subscribers as of March By contrast, subscribers to DSL (digital subscriber line) services, which have just started, are increasing rapidly doubling every month (from 9,700 in December 2000 to 70,700 in March 2001, according to the Ministry of Public Management, Home Affairs, Posts and Telecommunications, MPMHAPT). However, this internet access medium is still available to only a minority of Japanese households. Internet users % of population Source: EITO Computer orders 1995=100 Other Heavy electric Motors USA Western Europe Japan Source: ESRI April Machinery orders by products % 80% Industrial 60% 40% 1 Currently, three competing services are provided: i-mode from NTT Docomo, EZWeb from KDDI, J-Sky from J-Phone. Internet mobile phones primarily replaced the plainvanilla mobile phone terminals, rather than tapping new potential. 2 Initially, the feature that sold the terminal was the incorporation of C-HTML, a stripped-down version of HTML, which allows users on the move to access websites, albeit with some limitations in graphics. More features have been added in the meantime, including MP3 audio and colour motion video playability. 20% Electronic 12M mov avg 0% Source: Economic and Social Research Institute 4 Economics

5 conomics Finally, connection costs are now declining sharply. In an international comparison Japan was one of the countries with the highest access charges in dollar terms in Adjusted for purchasing power, however, internet access prices are close to the OECD mean. But access prices are clearly decreasing. For 24 hour/7 day unlimited internet connection, monthly fixed charges come to JPY 5,500 for 64Kb ISDN, and JPY 6,000 for 1.5Mb ADSL, which is similar to prices for 512Kb ADSL i.e. one-third of the speed in the US (USD per month). NTT has just announced further cuts for both ISDN and ADSL (by approx. JPY 200) from July. In summary, it can be said that in an international comparison Japan is clearly the leader with respect to internet-enabled mobile phone penetration, compensating its lower wire-based connectivity among individuals. Japan is the only country in which internet access via mobile phones is definitely an alternative to wire-based access. Connectivity in the corporate sector which is essential for the development of B2B e-commerce is also high, at least at large companies. However, smaller ones still seem to lag behind significantly. Moreover, e- commerce-enabling infrastructure has been enhanced, especially with regard to bandwidth. i-mode boom: positive spill-over for infrastructure and manufacturing An important reason for the recent improvement in connectivity is the stronger-than-expected boom in i-mode 3. This produced two unexpected benefits for Japan s internet environment. Firstly, in order to process the increased amount of information among the 25 million users who joined the internet via mobile phone almost instantaneously in about 15 million i-mode customers and 10 million customers of other providers -, backbone infrastructure (fibre network and IP channelling facilities) was reinforced. As a result, other users accessing the internet via fixed lines can benefit from a faster, lower-cost connection using the same infrastructure. While the reduction in costs should be partially attributed to the government, which put pressure on the carriers to lower the price, it could not have been attained without the success in i-mode. Secondly, it boosted output at domestic mobile phone manufacturers, which have been good in the value-added, multi-purpose consumer segment, but have not been cost competitive worldwide. In 1995, most newspapers concluded that Japanese electronic giants such as NEC, Sony, Fujitsu and Panasonic had too little global market share (with 3-5% each) compared with the Big 3, so they would be obliged to exit the mobile phone business before long. With vastly increased unit sales, however, Japanese companies have run down the cost curve quickly, and they began to export internet phone terminals to Europe. Internet accounts accessed by mobile phone D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A Source: MPMHAPT Subscribers to i-mode J 99 A J O J 00 Source: NTT Docomo A J O J 01 m m A NTT Docomo s i-mode is Japan s dominant internet-enabled mobile phone service, launched in early Its market share is around 2/3. The success of i-mode is in large part due to the fact that it focuses mainly on providing entertainment services for younger people. Moreover, it is more convenient in use than the European WAP technology as it is based on a packaged data transmission service and provides an always-on feature.thus, users do not have to log in each time before transmitting data. Important features are the ability to send and receive , make ticket reservations and purchases, and perform some banking activities. Economics 5

6 conomics The traditional PC business also benefited, but Japan s computer manufacturers are enjoying moderate growth only. Although PC assembly is no longer a high-tech business, Japan is still the main source of DVD drives and TFT-LCD monitors, which are increasingly taken for mainstream features. Finally, Japan is in an excellent position to produce internet appliances (i.e. household appliances with internet connection), as it is already specialised in producing consumer durables. Not many web appliances have debuted yet, but web-ready TVs and home management systems (security and remote controlling) are the areas that are growing. Benefits limited? Japan has caught up in terms of connectivity and infrastructure partly driven by the i-mode boom and is expected to catch up further in the years to come. With a population of 125 million, it has a sizeable and affluent market of its own. It has hardware technology and quality manufacturing capability. But what are the benefits to be expected from technology diffusion? One concern is how technology can be used in depth. According to a survey of i-mode users (July 2000) by ICR, a private survey company in Japan: 46.4% of i-mode users already have experience in m-commerce, but 66.8% of purchases were music clips 84.8% of the users chose i-mode over traditional mobile phones because it enables them to send and receive s 48.6% of users do not use PCs. However, mobile phones are somewhat inadequate to be used as main internet gateway. So far the situation suggests internet-connected mobile phones are used more as an expensive toy, and less as a serious PDA (personal digital assistant) or information terminal. There are quite a few cases of company-wide deployment of internet-connected mobile phones with the aim of increasing speed in business development and performance controls. However, reaping productivity gains from B2B commerce requires fixed-line connectivity. Another shortcoming affecting use relates to software development. While Japan has a good number of talented coders for gaming programs, business software companies frequently produce codes by mimicking new ideas from the US. This passive mode works negatively in the situation where Japan is running ahead with its mobile-centric internet environment. For instance, the services from i-mode (stock dealing, deposit transfer, getting show tickets, auctions, buying music, etc.) are stale services developed in the US. For Japan to maintain its competitive position and to take advantage of the opportunities of the mobile boom, the software side of the economy must become more creative. E-commerce: on the rise, but obstacles remain Turning from the technical foundations to the use of e-business in Japan, the total size of the B2B market was JPY 14.4 trillion yen, or 3.3% of intermediary trading in 1999, according to the government. It expects the market to reach JPY trillion in 2005, which would equal 22% of turnover. B2B activities have been relatively strong in the automobile parts sector, which accounts for 81% of total volume. Japan has the potential to catch up further Limiting factors: technology has not been used in depth so far and business software has often been copied, not invented B2B e-commerce heavily concentrated in automobile industry 6 Economics

7 conomics B2B e-commerce in Japan does not necessarily have an international orientation. The reason for this and a possible obstacle to further progress in the sector is the tradition of companies joining together in keiretsu 4. Major corporations have vigorously developed such closed network systems over the past decades, and hesitate to switch to an open procurement system via the internet because they question the need for it and see risks. Firstly, keiretsu have already started to overlap with one another to some extent, and any negatives derived from a rigidly closed system have been mitigated. For instance, Toyota can buy parts from Subarukeiretsu companies if the quality is excellent. Cost is not the only factor, and in many companies view a handful of suppliers is large enough to choose from. Secondly, companies fear that sharing too much with competitors will erode their competitive position. If manufacturers share too large a pool of resources and technologies, differentiation has to come mainly from marketing. But that is not the business Japanese companies are good at. Open B2B versus closed B2B is therefore a hot issue in Japan, but for the aforementioned reasons it is not fair to conclude that the closed system in Japan is outdated. Open B2B, on the other hand, is important for companies with foreign subsidiaries or plants. As keiretsu relationships have their geographical limitations (concentration on business and production in Japan), it is generally expected that open B2B will become more and more important for companies that produce internationally. Moreover, the impediments to B2B e-commerce are likely to become less important over time as keiretsu bonds are weakening. There are several indications of this, one example being that banks more and more seem to be willing to write-off non-performing loans. In the end this means that banks are prepared to let companies from their keiretsu go bust something which was unimaginable some years ago. With keiretsu bonds weakening there is increasing room for open B2B e- commerce, but this will take time. B2C plays a minor role Turning to B2C e-commerce, the total size of the market was JPY 0.35 trillion in 1999 this was 0.06% of final private consumption. Because the B2C market has doubled every year since 1996, the government conservatively expects it to top JPY 3.2 trillion in This is onesixth of its US counterpart as estimated by METI (Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry) for Despite these relatively low numbers it is becoming increasingly difficult to find a corporate website that does not have direct-sales capabilities. As of November 2000, 34.6% of companies with more than 100 employees had websites that can sell products online to consumers (according to MPMHAPT). Among the different industries, financial companies have the highest ratio of 45.2%, followed by wholesale/retail companies (42.9%), transportation/ telecommunication companies (29.3%), and manufacturers (28.8%). Still, as in other countries, B2C e-commerce is only progressing slowly and is concentrated in standardised products such as books and CDs. Given the low volume, companies are making losses in this segment. Keiretsu are an obstacle to further progress......however, these impediments are likely to become less important over time B2C e-commerce still in its infancy 4 Closed network of suppliers, producers, customers, and service companies like banks (the latter often being the centre of the keiretsu). Live and let live, i.e. achieving a comfortable economic situation for all members, is the main goal of these systems. Economics 7

8 conomics Among the 6,500 shops hosted by Rakuten, the single largest e- commerce shopping mall in Japan, less than 5% are reported to be called profitable, despite the 230 million page views Rakuten receives per month. Sixty percent of Japanese individuals use Yahoo! as their portal, and traffic is heavily concentrated. Anyone whose website can be reached easily via Yahoo! gets the most business. Nevertheless, the money is mostly made by portals or market places like Yahoo! and Rakuten, which live on traffic, and not by vendor sites. A healthy development of the B2C market is not yet in sight. The B2C technology used by Japanese vendors is generally very primitive compared with US sites, and product lines available on the net are limited. Terms like data warehouse and CRM (client relationship management) are still very foreign ideas in Japan s e-commerce landscape. This suggests that despite increasing e-commerce turnover Japan is likely to continue to lag behind the US in the coming years. The government s active role The previous government under Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori realised the importance of the IT sector and e-business for economic growth and thus developed an e-japan Strategy. Unfortunately, with an unpopular prime minister at the top, government activities attracted little attention in Japan. But Yoshiro Mori (prime minister between April 2000 and April 2001) was serious about establishing an ambitious IT policy. Its core programs are: Establishment of an ultra high-speed network infrastructure and competition policies: the concrete target is that, by 2005, 10 million households shall be connected to the internet with 100Mb-class lines, and another 30 million with megabit lines. To attain 100Mb-class speed, each household must have a direct fibre connection. The prototype of this plan was called FTTH (fiber to the home) and was drafted back in What seemed unachievable back then has been seriously re-programmed, as geographically smaller Asian nations are undertaking similar plans. Apart from these technical plans, competition between telecommunication companies is to be promoted in order to lower internet costs. Facilitation of electronic commerce: the target is to provide a regulatory environment in which both B2B and B2C e-commerce can flourish. More specifically: the growth in e-commerce between 1998 and 2003 shall strongly exceed market expectations of a 10- fold rise in B2B commerce and a 50-fold rise in B2C commerce. Realisation of e-government: all administrative transactions between government offices or between government and citizens or the public shall be available online by fiscal year Nurturing high-quality human resources: the aim is to improve the IT knowledge and skills of the Japanese population, starting with school education. All goals have deadlines in , which is very aggressive by Japanese standards. PM Koizumi looks even more willing to support the internet with his policies. If the goals were achieved, Japan would be among most advanced internet nations in the world. However, it will be very expensive: although the policy package does not state fiscal spending on fibre cable, in one way or another the government will play an active role in infrastructure investment. In the case of ADSL, the government provided very low-interest loans of up to 40% of the amount Portals, rather than vendors, make the money Former government launched an ambitious e-strategy If the goals can be achieved, Japan will be among the leading e-countries 8 Economics

9 conomics a company invested in ADSL infrastructure. For fibre cable, the government is apparently willing to give more support, going by the official documentation. Apart from speeding up internet penetration, another important goal of the government is to narrow the so-called digital divide. Nikkei BP s semi-annual survey (August 2000) looks at internet penetration (PCs, mobile terminals and web TVs) by income bracket. According to the survey, penetration among low-income households is low and stagnant (chart). The government focuses on supporting internet diffusion in disadvantaged areas such as under-populated provinces and isolated islands, but also on generally enabling cheaper internet access. It has been optimistically argued that the mobile-phone-centric development will help internet technology to infiltrate the low-income segment. This hype was true as regards the cost of equipment: one can buy three internet mobile phones for the price of a low-cost PC. But in terms of monthly fees, a mobile environment is twice as costly.however, a new service is underway where NTT, the largest fixed line operator, provides an L - mode terminal, which is virtually an i-mode terminal connected to copper wire. Monthly costs are expected to be around JPY 200, excluding local call charges and the cost of equipment. This addition is expected to make access easier for low income groups. Start-up finance and capital markets of crucial importance Next to the provision of the infrastructure and the establishment of a competitive telecommunications environment, start-up finance and efficient capital markets are of crucial importance for the e-economy to flourish. It is often said that poor financial support for start-ups inhibits the growth of venture businesses in Japan. The first sizeable venture capital fund was established by Nomura already in 1973, and the availability of venture capital has increased significantly over the last few years. However, especially in comparison with the US, but also with Europe, Japan is still lagging behind with regard to this type of start-up finance. Total assets of some 150 venture capital companies in Japan came to JPY billion as of June 2000, about one-tenth of the US figure and roughly one-third of the volume provided in Western Europe. Even taking into account that Japan is smaller than both the US and Western Europe (with regard to GDP and population), the gap to these regions does not disappear, it only becomes smaller. One factor hindering a rapid increase in new businesses in the period from certainly was the socio-economic framework. Until 1997, working for big companies offering lifetime employment made sense. The social status of a rich but self-employed person was much lower than a middle manager of a large company. In this environment, most people stayed with big corporations. However, in recent years things have started to change, due to the deterioration in the working environment in large firms that no longer promise lifetime employment. In a recent poll conducted by the government, two-thirds of college graduates are willing to start his/her business. From this aspect, too, the time is finally ripe for new ventures. However, the collapse of the equity market was a blow to the improvement in start-up finance and came at the worst possible time. Two stock markets for small high-tech companies Mothers at Tokyo Stock Exchange and NASDAQ Japan opened in November 1999 and January 2000, respectively, only to evaporate the investments of risktaking individuals. As a consequence, disillusioned investors now avoid Internet penetration by bracket income % 9/99 3/00 8/00 Source: Nikkei BP below JPY 3.5 m above JPY 10 m Start-up culture only beginning to develop because of: - lack of venture capital - socio-economic framework Economics 9

10 conomics start-up shares. The fact that equity market developments in Japan in the last two years were closely correlated to those in the US was not helpful either. Very often the rationale for buying or selling came from across the Pacific (chart). Thus, the recent stock market crash in the high-tech sector and international sentiment, which is currently very cautious regarding dotcoms, are hampering a vigorous increace in startup finance. Conclusion The proliferation of internet technology and infrastructure in Japan has been accelerating thanks to unexpected success in i-mode and other mobile phone technologies. Although still lagging behind (compared with the US and some European countries), the gap has narrowed over the last few years and Japan has the potential to catch up further. However, pre-conditions have to be met. For example, further fast growth in the information and communications technology sector demands the availability of sufficient venture capital and of inventive and qualified human capital. Japan has to work on both. Finally, a timely and full implementation of the government s e-japan Strategy would certainly be helpful to reach a position among the most advanced internet nations. Shunsuke Motani, Stock prices Index TSE Electric Machinery NASDAQ Economics

11 conomics Economics 11

12 Frankfurt Voice ISSN Available faster by !!! The series Frankfurt Voice contains commentaries on and analyses of current economic, monetary, fiscal and political developments in industrialised countries as well as in emerging markets in Asia, Eastern Europe, and Latin America. Special attention is given to economic trends and outstanding political events relevant to international financial markets. Frankfurt Voice also contains articles on fundamental, structural issues. It is thus the natural supplement to our monthly Economic & Financial Outlook, which provides overviews of a large number of economies. Topics published on UK election: Yes to Labour does not mean Yes to the euro June 25, 2001 Enlargement after Göteborg - false sense of security EMU-S8: growth converging, but inflation diverging June 11, 2001 EMU: Net exports support growth in Q1! June 5, 2001 French labour market: en route to full employment? Too big to fail - effects on competition and implications for banking supervision May 31, 2001 USA: Tax reduction package has passed the Senate May 14, 2001 Letter from Tokyo: Japan s financial sector - surgery or pain relief? Switzerland: Rate cut in sight? USA: Growth surprisingly strong in Q1 - but risk of recession remains May 7, 2001 Germany: How strongly will the German export sector be hit in 2001? Labour-market reform in Spain: Olé or alas? For further information please visit our internet site or contact us direct at: Marketing Frankfurt am Main Fax: Publisher: Deutsche Bank AG, DB Research, D Frankfurt am Main, Federal Republic of Germany, editor and publisher, all rights reserved. When quoting please cite. The information contained in this publication is derived from carefully selected public sources we believe are reasonable. We do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, and nothing in this report shall be construed to be a representation of such a guarantee. Any opinions expressed reflect the current judgement of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the opinion of Deutsche Bank AG or any of its subsidiaries and affiliates. The opinions presented are subject to change without notice. Neither Deutsche Bank AG nor its subsidiaries/affiliates accept any responsibility for liabilities arising from use of this document or its contents. Deutsche Banc Alex Brown Inc. has accepted responsibility for the distribution of this report in the United States under applicable requirements. Deutsche Bank AG London being regulated by the Securities and Futures Authority for the content of its investment banking business in the United Kingdom, and being a member of the London Stock Exchange, has, as designated, accepted responsibility for the distribution of this report in the United Kingdom under applicable requirements. Deutsche Bank AG, Sydney branch, has accepted responsibility for the distribution of this report in Australia under applicable requirements. Printed by: HST Offsetdruck GmbH, Dieburg. ISSN

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