ISSUES PAKISTAN'S ECONOMY S. AKBAR ZAIDI SECOND EDITION REVISED AND EXPANDED OXTORD UNIVERSITY PRESS

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1 ISSUES IN PAKISTAN'S ECONOMY SECOND EDITION REVISED AND EXPANDED S. AKBAR ZAIDI OXTORD UNIVERSITY PRESS

2 Preface to the Second Edition Preface to the First E d i t i o n.... Introduction Chapter 1 Assessing Pakistan's Development l.l Parti Chapter Chapter Structural Change Five Decades and Five Epochs Laying the Foundations: The Decade of Development: The Bad Luck Years: The Second Military Government: The Era of Structural Adjustment: 1988 Onwards The Balance Sheet Conclusions Agriculture Is Pakistan Feudal? A Historical Account of the Development of Agriculture in Pakistan The Development of Agriculture Before the Consolidation of British Rule The Impact of British Colonialism Feudal or Capitalist? Popular Perceptions of Feudalism Summary Further Reading The Green Revolution and Land Reforms me Green Revolution The Issue of the Tubewells Tractorization Regional and Income Disparities Elite Farmer Strategy and Capitalist Development Social and Political Effects Land Reforms Summary Further Reading The 1959 Land Reforms The Bhutto Reforms of 1972 vii viii ix Chapter Chapter , Part II Chapter The Nature and Direction of Agrarian Change 39 Explaining the Numbers Data from the Censuses Changes Over Time 42 What Do the Numbers Mean? Summary, Further Reading 51 Agriculture: Critical Issues 5 An Overview and Major Trends 5 Agricultural Pricing Policy 0 Rural Financial Markets and Agricultural Credit Informal Sources of Credit Formal Sources of Credit 5 Mechanization 70 Agricultural Income Tax " 71 The Water Crisis 73 Land Ownership, Power and Land Reforms Summary Further Reading 77 Industry and Trade 89 The Process of Industrialization in Pakistan I: : Exchange Rates, Trade Policies, and Import Substituting Industrialization : : The Impact of the Exchange Rate The Trade Policy Regime The Consequences of Exchange Rate and Trade Policy for Industrialization The End Result The Decade of Development Trade Policy Directing Industrialization Foreign Aid, the Private Sector, and Inequalities The Bhutto Years - Bad Luck or Bad Management?.3.1 Economic Policies and Performance.3.2 The Bad Luck Factor Summary Further Reading

3 iv Issues in Pakistan's Economy Chapter 7 The Process of Industrialization in Pakistan II: Chapter Chapter The Zia Years: The Nature and Extent of Growth Industrial Policy The Public/Private Sector Divide Deregulation and Liberalization Causes of High Growth and the Success of the Zia Regime The Age of Structural Adjustment: 1988 Onwards The Principles of the Programme Assessing the Impact on the Industrial Sector Summary Further Reading Key Issues in Industry in Pakistan Numbers and Trends in Industry 1 The Small-Scale Manufacturing Sector Numbers and Characteristics Emergence and Growth Issues Affecting the Small-Scale Sector 135 The Textile Industry and its Crisis 139 Has Public Sector Industry Been a Failure? 143 The Privatization Process 14 The Debate Over Efficiency in the Industrial Structure Summary Further Reading 155 Balance of Payments and Trade Regimes Summary 9..2 Further Reading Part III Pakistan's Foreign Trade: Basic Facts 159 Trade Policy and Trade Regimes: The Early Years: Trade Policy and the Decade of Development A New Country: The Beginning of a Liberal Trade Regime: Trade Liberalization Under Structural Adjustment: H Onwards 173 The Debate Over Efficiency and the Trade Regime The Exchange Rate Dealing with Globalization and WTO Some Political Economy Issues Globalization and WTO's Impact on Pakistan 183 Fiscal and Monetary Policy 199 Chapter 10 Public Finance I: Resource Mobilization and the Structure of Taxation The Structure of Government and Taxation Prior to Legislative Functions The Structure of Taxation Inter-Governmental Fiscal Relations The District Government System Fiscal Issues Public Finance: The Basic Facts Important Issues in Public Finance and Revenue Mobilization Federal Taxes Resource Mobilization at the Provincial Level Local Government Revenues Is Local Government the Answer? The Contribution of Municipal Government in Development Potential for Development by - Local Governments Is Local Government the Answer? The Nature of Public Debt and the Fiscal Deficit: A Preliminary Introduction Summary Further Reading 232 Chapter 11 Public Finance II: Debts and Deficits 23 ll.l Does the Fiscal Deficit Matter? Should Budgets Always be Balanced? The Problem of Measuring the Deficit Fiscal Deficits, Intertemporal Equity, and Distribution Macroeconpmic Implications Critical Concerns Regarding Pakistan's Fiscal Deficit The IMF/World Bank View of 240 Pakistan's Fiscal Deficit, Re-examining Critical Concerns 244 The Domestic and Foreign Debt Crises Summary Further Reading 252

4 Contents v Chapter 12 Financial and Capital Markets 12.1 the Development of the Banking Sector The First Phase: The Relationship Between Economic Growth and the Development of Banking Nationalization in the 1970s Islamic Banking Developments since Banking Trends: Development Finance Institutions (DFIs) and Non-Bank Financial Institutions (NBFIs) Some Salient Issues in the Banking Sector 12.2 The Equities Market Summary Further'Reading 20 Chapter 15 Structural Adjustment Programmes in Pakistan Chapter 13 Monetary Policy, Savings and Inflation Monetary Policy and Monetary Management in Pakistan Money Supply and Monetary Expansion Inflation and its Causes The Low Savings Rate Summary Further Reading 298 Part IV The Era of Structural Adjustment: From ESAFs to PRSPs 1988 to the Present Chapter 14 Structural Adjustment Programmes: Composition and Effects 14.1 The Development and Export of Development Thinking 14.2 From Structural Adjustment Loans to Structural Adjustment Programmes 14.3 Structural Adjustment Programmes: Composition 14.4 Structural Adjustment Programmes: Implementation and Effects 14.5 Economic Liberalization and Openness: Some Questionable Assertions The Contextuality of Policy international Capital and the Loss of National Autonomy 14. Summary and.further Reading Summary Further Reading History Implementation of the Structural Adjustment Programmes in Pakistan: An examination of the 1988 Programme Fiscal Policy Trade Financial Sector 340 Was the 1988 Structural Adjustment Programme a Success? Achievements and Failures Fiscal Policy Trade and Balance of Payments Financial Sector Liberalization and Privatization Other Areas The World Bank/IMF's Overall Evaluation of the 1988 Structural Adjustment Programme The Political Economy of Structural Adjustment Programmes in Pakistan Pakistan's Dependence on Washington, or Are Governments Autonomous? Did Pakistan Need to Go to the IMF? Why Does Pakistan Accept the Structural Adjustment Programme? Summary Further Reading 351 Chapter 1 Macroeconomic Developments: Before and After May September 11, 2001: The Day the World Changed 33 What Happened to the Debt Crisis? 34 The Growing Forex Reserves 39 Has there been a Turnaround of the Economy? Summary Further Reading 375

5 vi Issues in Pakistan's Economy Part V The Social Sector, Institutions and Governance 381 Chapter 17 The Social Sector I Some International and Regional Comparisons" Planning for the Social Sectors The Health Sector Statistics The Issues Education Statistics The Issues Summarizing the Issues in Education Population Welfare and Family Planning The Evolution of the Population Welfare Programme Knowledge and Usage Some Issues Urbanization and Housing The Extent of Urbanization Housing in Cities Summary Further Reading Chapter 18 The Social Sector II 18.1 Gender Inequality and Women Statistics Some Issues Finding Some Options 18.2 Infrastructure The Power Sector 18.3 The Environment 18.4 Regional Inequalities Methodology and Results The Issues Summary Further Reading Chapter 19 Poverty: Trends, Causes and Solutions What Does Poverty Mean? Trends in Poverty Who are the Poor and Where do they Live? Explaining the Trends in Poverty: Why did Poverty return to Pakistan and why does it still persist? Poverty Alleviation: Then and Now Poverty and Bonded Labour Can Poverty be Eliminated in Pakistan? Summary Further Reading 452 Chapter 20 Institutional Issues in the Social Sector The Social Action Programme (SAP) What SAP envisaged Part VI What happened to SAP? Governance, Decentralization and Local-Level Delivery Government and Development in Pakistan NGOs and Community Participation Summary Further Reading Political Economics Chapter 21 The Political Economy of Neighbourly Relations 21.1 India and Pakistan: A Brief Comparison 21.2 Theorizing Trade, War and Peace 21.3 Trade with India 21.4 Benefits and Constraints in Trading with India The Simple Benefits of Trade Complicating Simplicity: The Interests of the Military 21.5 Constraints and Possibilities: A Matter of Survival Summary Further Reading Chapter Political Economics: Class, State, Power, and Transition Civilian Bureaucracy and Industrialization: Civil and Military Bureaucratic Capitalism: A Shift in Emphasis: A Military State and the Middle Classes: ' 502 The Democratic Interregnum: The Return of the Military: 1999 Onwards 504 Issues in Pakistan's Political Economy Pakistan's Middle Classes The Pakistani Military's Economic Interests and their Consequences Pakistan's Praetorian Democracy and Technocrats as Apologists Pakistan's State and Society: Groups, Fractions and Influences Urbanism as a Way of life Is Pakistan a Failed State? Summary.8.2 Further Reading Selected Bibliography Index

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