The Norwegian Commercial Property Market

Transcription

1 The Norwegian Commercial Property Market Spring 2015

2

3

4

5 The Norwegian Commercial Property Market This market report is intended to provide an overview of the Norwegian property market. The report highlights important trends and gives specific examples of transactions in the leasing and investment markets, important new property developments, etc. This report is intended for general information and is based upon our own material which we believe to be reliable or material supplied to us. Whilst every effort has been made to ensure its accuracy and completeness, we cannot offer any guarantee that factual errors may not have occurred. Akershus Eiendom takes no responsibility for any damages or loss incurred owing to the inaccuracy or incorrectness of this report. This report was last edited on March 3rd For further information please contact Akershus Eiendom AS. Comments, suggestions or questions regarding the contents and presentation of this report are welcome at

6

7 Table of Contents Main Points Macro Economics The Norwegian Economy The Oslo Office Market Overview of the Market Rent Levels Survey of Relocation Patterns Vacancy Development The Investment Market Regional Property Markets International Office Markets The Retail Market The Hotel Market The Logistic Market The Residential Market Definitions Akershus Eiendom

8 Main Points 8 Main Points After a modest 2014 GDP growth at 2.1 %, expectations for 2015 have taken a toll from the oil marked decline and now stands at 1.6 % as a consensus estimate. Employment growth has been revised down and is now expected to be close to zero for the coming two years. Office rents in Oslo have been stable or rising in 2014, but the outlook for 2015 is stable in the prime and CBD segments and somewhat declining in the fringe areas. The major trend has been a low volume of new contracts, although at solid rent levels. The results from our annual survey of moving patterns across Oslo show similar trends as the average of earlier years: the West side retains almost all its tenants when they physically relocate, whilst the East side loses a significant share to the CBD. However, almost 40 % of moving CBD tenants moved to fringe areas during 2014, the second-largest share registered in our 10-year study. New office development in Oslo is at above-average volume for 2015, while the next couple of years have smaller confirmed volumes of new projects. Construction costs are expected to edge slightly down due to lower overall construction. Oslo office vacancy is at 8 %, versus 7 % one year ago, due to the slowdown in new leases. As the employment outlook is stable, and the volume of conversion and demolition is still high, we do not expect vacancy to go any higher for the next two years. There has been a record year in the property investment market, with close to NOK 59 billion in volume, plus the IPO of Entra at an additional NOK 28 billion. This has exceeded expectations, as has the share of international investors, at more than one-quarter of investments. Our prime yield estimate is now at 4.5 %. It is obvious that fringe office buildings also have experienced reduction in sales yields, in some instances even more than the CBD area. Thus, the difference between CBD and fringe yields is stable or decreasing. Stavanger, Bergen and Trondheim all now see a weaker leasing market compared to early For Stavanger especially, this is due to the reduced activity in the oil and gas sector; for Bergen and Trondheim. However, the market has a large volume of new office buildings for The transaction volumes have exceeded expectations for all cities. The 2014 retail growth in Norway was close to 2.7 %, and expectations for future consumption growth have been reduced

9 along with the expected GDP growth. Retail properties was a small share of the transaction market, at lower volumes than , and there were no real portfolio deals such as seen in previous years. Norwegian hotel guest night volume was 3.4 % higher in 2014 compared to 2013, while RevPAR increased by 1.1 %. The outlook is more uncertain due to an expected slowdown in business travel growth, but the volume of new hotels under construction is not high. where new construction is falling, but most buyers see lower lending rates and thus are tempted to pay more. Overall sales are up after the temporary decline in late 2013 and early 2014, so construction is expected to rise somewhat in the short term. The logistics leasing market is still very stable with low vacancy and good demand. The logistics transaction market was the second best seen ever, with close to NOK 10 billion in property value, mostly bought by domestic investors; most were large units with long leases. After several years of solid growth, residential prices are now uncertain; most expect 2-5 % price growth in a market

10 Macro Economics 10 The Norwegian Economy According to Statistics Norway, the Norwegian economy expanded by 2.2 % in 2014 with a growth in 4Q with 0.9 % up from 0.5 % in 3Q. Estimates for 2015 are 1.6 % growth of GDP, according to DNB and Statistics Norway. In the fall of 2014, the consensus forecast was for a 2015 growth of 2.1 %. Thus the expectations for growth are significantly reduced. Most economists now expect a slowdown lasting for two years, but it is very likely that the general growth in other industrialized countries is the main driver for future growth. Traditional export increased with 2.9 % in Expected traditional export growth for 2015 and 2016 is 3.2 %, with an increase to 3.4 % expected in The lower NOK exchange rate has contributed to competiveness and profitability for companies in all non-oil/gas export sectors. The 2014 household savings rate was 9.1 %, slightly up from The growth in debt was 6.5 % year over year in October 2014, 0.7 % lower than a year ago. The growth in debt is still higher than the growth in disposable income, but the growth slowed during the past year. In the second quarter of 2014 the ratio was 210 % at records high. Residential prices are expected to rise 2.1 % in The investments in the petroleum sector were even before the sharp fall in oil price in late 2014 expected to decline in The decline in oil investments over the coming three years is now estimated to a drop of 30 %, with half of the decline occurring during The oil investments will be 6 % of GDP, a 3 %-point drop from After the major decline in oil prices, the estimates have been revised the most. Norwegian unemployment has been mostly unchanged during The level of unemployed (AKU) in 2015 and 2016 are estimated by Statistics Norway to be 3.9 % and 4.3 %, respectively. Last year it was estimated that 2015 and 2016 would be 3.7 % and 3.6 %. The total employment is expected to stay flat for the coming two years. Nominal wages are expected to increase by 3.1 % in 2015, last year s increase was about 3.5 % with a price rise of 2 % the real wage growth was 1.5 %. The utilization of the capacity in the mainland economy has been slightly lower the past year and it has become easier to find qualified workers, according to Norges Bank. CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products (CPI-ATE) were in January 2.4 % and CPI before adjustments 2.0 %. Oslo Stock Exchange (OSEBX) has so far in 2015 (mid-february) increased by 6.4 %.

11 Macro Economics Key Economic Indicators Level NOKm Annual Change(%) 2014* * 2013* 2014F 2015F 2016F 2017F Gross domestic product 3,151,483-1,6 0,6 1,0 2,7 0,7 2,2 0,5 1,6 2,1 GDP mainland Norway 2,529,694-1,6 1,8 1,9 3,8 2,3 2,6 1,0 2,2 2,7 Consumption in households etc. 1,229,688 0,0 3,8 2,3 3,5 2,1 2,1 1,4 2,4 2,6 General government consumption 688,455 4,1 2,2 1,0 1,6 1,7 3,1 2,5 2,3 2,0 Gross fixed investment 753,066-6,8-6,6 7,4 7,6 6,8 1,3-2,8 1,1 3,5 Exports 1,197,587-4,1 0,7-0,8 1,4-3,0 1,0 0,8 1,4 1,9 Crude oil and natural gas 539,731-1,6-6,9-5,6 0,5-7,6-0,8-0,8-0,5-0,4 Traditional goods 344,041-8,0 3,3-0,1-0,2 1,0 2,9 3,1 3,9 4,5 Imports 932,063-10,0 8,3 4,0 3,1 4,3 2,8 1,8 2,0 1,5 Traditional goods 547,467-12,1 9,2 4,6 2,6 3,2 0,8-0,5 3,3 4,2 Prices CPI 2,1 2,5 1,2 0,8 2,1 2,1 2,6 2,0 1,7 CPI-ATE 2,6 1,4 0,9 1,2 1,6 2,5 2,8 2,0 1,7 Housing Prices 1,9 8,3 8,0 6,7 4,1 2,3 0,2 2,5 1,3 Employment Unemployment rate (% of work force) 3.5 3,2 3,6 3,3 3,2 3,5 3,5 3,9 4,0 3,7 Employed persons (percentage change) 2,619-0,5-0,5 1,5 2,1 1,2 1,1 0,2 0,2 1,1 Participation rate (level) 72,8 71,9 71,4 71,5 71,2 70,6 70,3 69,9 69,8 Interest rates 6.feb year Government Bond rate (%) (Feb. 6) 1,28 3,95 3,73 2,51 2,13 3,00 1,28 Money market rate (level) (3M NIBOR) 1,66 2,5 2,5 2,9 2,2 1,8 1,7 1,3 1,2 1,4 Statistics Norway As of December 2014

12 Macro Economics Key Interest Rates % 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% E 2015E 2016E 2017E Jan 03 Jul 03 Jan 04 Jul 04 Jan 05 Jul 05 Jan 06 Jul 06 Jan 07 Jul 07 Jan 08 Jul 08 Jan 09 Jul 09 Jan 10 Jul 10 Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13 Jan 14 Jul 14 Jan 15 NIBOR 3 months SWAP 10 years 10 year Gov. Bond Norges Bank, Sight deposit rate DNB Markets 03 Change in Total Employment Employees, thousands Change, % 3.5% 4.1% 3.3% 4% Norway E % 0.7% 1.9% 2.0% 1.7% 2.9% 2.7% 0.9% 0.6% 0.3% 0.4% -1.2% 0.5% 1.3% -0.4% -0.5% 1.6% 2.2% 1.2% 1.1% 0.2% 0.2% 1.1% 3% 2% 1% 0% % 800-2% National employment change %, right axis Employment change %, SSB forecast 10 year Total employed Norway, thousands, left axis Total employed, SSB forecast Statistics Norway

13 Macro Economics Main Indices Oslo and London Index, 2004 = Jan 04 Jul 04 Jan 05 Jul 05 Jan 06 Jul 06 Jan 07 Jul 07 Jan 08 Jul 08 Jan 09 Jul 09 Jan 10 Jul 10 Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13 Jan 14 Jul 14 Jan 15 Oslo Stock Exchange (OSEBX) London Stock Exchange (FTSE 100) Yahoo Finance/Oslo Børs 05 Exchange Rates Index, 2005 = Jan 05 Jul 05 Jan 06 Jul 06 Jan 07 Jul 07 Jan 08 Jul 08 Jan 09 Jul 09 Jan 10 Jul 10 Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13 Jan 14 Jul 14 Jan 14 USD/NOK EUR/NOK Norges Bank

14 The Oslo Office Market 14 Overview of the Market The Oslo office building stock, including Lysaker/Fornebu, today stands at around 8.4 million m². Of the total volume, roughly 3.3 million m² are situated within the city centre, from Solli Plass in the west to Bjørvika in the east, marked in the map as seven areas/circles. Since 2007, the city centre has seen major urban redevelopment. Two new neighbourhoods at the waterfront, Tjuvholmen and Bjørvika, have been developed to become mixed residential and commercial areas. Bjørvika still has potential for further large development projects, and in the longer term, Filipstad just west of Tjuvholmen will be available for redevelopment. Generally, Oslo has a great deal of urban sprawl, and the built-up area covers a lot of land compared to its population size. Most of the office building stock is concentrated in densely built areas, and this is visible in the map. Office zones outside the Central Business District are generally found along the outer ring road from Lysaker through Nydalen, Økern and Helsfyr-Bryn to Ryen. All areas have seen new development over the last 10 years, and Fornebu and Nydalen have seen the highest activity. The area between the CBD and the outer ring road (in the map, seen as the Inner City West, North and East) is mostly in use for residential, education and retail purposes. The west of Oslo contains highend residential areas with low density. The north-eastern corner of Oslo is the core area in all of Norway for logistical purposes, with many distribution centres for retail, wholesale and third-party logistics companies. Eastern and southern areas mainly consist of residential areas with varying degrees of density.

15 The Oslo Office Market The Oslo Office Area Oslo Outer West Majorstuen Ullevål Sinsen Storo Kjelsås Grefsen Nydalen Inner City North Økern Oslo Outer East Alna-Ulven Skøyen Inner City West CBD Inner City East Helsfyr-Bryn Lysaker Ryen Oslo Outer South Fornebu m² m² m² Akershus Eiendom

16 The Oslo Office Market 16 Rent Levels status The Oslo rental market has experienced an uneventful 2014 measured by volume, with fewer lease contracts and smaller tenants compared to previous years. The rents, however, have either stayed put or grown somewhat during The slowdown in new leases seems to be disconnected from most tenants current need for space. In short, many of the tenants in the pipeline seem to have extended their current contract for shorter periods in lieu of signing new space until the economic outlook becomes more stable. In December, the consensus rent estimates from Dagens Næringsliv for the second half of 2014 were released (see figure 09 and 10). This shows a relatively limited to flat annual development in rents in all segments. Prime, CBD and Skøyen has seen a growth between 1-2 %, whereas the remaining areas have seen limited to no growth over the past year. Despite the decrease in signed contracts, rent levels have not been significantly affected. Since our last report, Skanska has signed a contract to move into 7,500 m² brand new offices in Lakkegata 55 in Oslo CBD, a development project it also owns 50 % of along with Entra. Bouvet is taking up 4,500 m² at Sørkedalsveien 8 located at Majorstuen (inner west fringe), and Google is moving into newly renovated premises owned by NPRO at Bryggegata 8, Prime CBD. TRENDS As of February, around 325 companies are actively seeking just over 650,000 m² of office space in Oslo. The ten largest of these companies are seeking almost 150,000 m² of office space, equivalent to almost 25 % of the total active search. Of the top ten, 65 % are government or municipal agencies with contracts expiring within the next three years. The forecast for the rest of 2015 is that rent levels in the fringe areas will experience a drop of between 2 % and 10 % from today s levels, while the CBD rents will remain at their current levels. The continuing oil price uncertainty has resulted in a slowdown in the oil and offshore industry, and employee cutbacks have already started happening. Thus, we believe we will see an increase in subletting in the west fringe areas where the oil & offshore clusters are located. Several large tenants have become more careful with regards to future need for space and when to move. Also, a surplus of available sites and properties in the fringe areas in combination with falling yields has created some downward pressure, as lower yields are incentivising landlords to lower rents in order to fill their properties or new projects. As a result, we believe the rental market will reflect the business sector s somewhat sober outlook for 2015.

17 The Oslo Office Market Oslo Office Rents March 2015 Nydalen Sinsen Storo Kjelsås Grefsen Oslo Outer East The map shows office rent levels for high-standard units larger than 500 m² in different parts of Oslo, as of February Oslo Outer West Majorstuen Ullevål Inner City North Økern Alna-Ulven Skøyen Inner City West CBD Inner City East Helsfyr-Bryn Lysaker Ryen Fornebu Oslo Outer South Rent, NOK/m²: General high standard / Top standard and new space Akershus Eiendom 3,600 / 4,200 2,800 / 3,350 2,350 / 2,800 1,800 / 2,400 1,600 / 2,150 1,400 / 1,950 1,000 / 1, Oslo Office Leasing Examples Property/location Owner Tenants Floor space m² Area Haakon VII's gate 1 Blystad HitecVision 600 Prime Bryggegata 8 NPRO Google 2,500 Prime Munkedamsveien 53 Aberdeen Asset Management NæringsEiendom 600 Prime Torggata 5 Olav Thon Økonor 1,200 CBD Brugata 19 DNB Livsforsikring ASA Viken Fiber 800 CBD Fridtjof Nansens plass 4 Eiendomsspar Golar LNG 1,200 CBD Rosenkrantz gate 22 Lene AS AIG 1,000 CBD Schweigaards gate 16 Entra Eiendom Dinamo 1,500 CBD Lakkegata 55 Entra/Skanska Skanska 7,500 CBD Verkstedveien 1 NPRO Sektor Gruppen 1,800 Skøyen Verkstedveien 1 NPRO PA Consulting Group 1,300 Skøyen Karenslyst Allé 20 Sparebank 1 Livsforsikring Capgemini 3,500 Skøyen Sørkedalsveien 8 Blystad Bouvet ASA 4,500 Majorstua Essendrops gate 3 NRP Finans Help Forsikring 3,800 Majorstua Fridtjof Nansens vei 17 Furuholmen Eiendom AS Samordna Opptak 2,400 Majorstua Gullhaugveien 12 NPRO Oslo University Hospital 3,200 Nydalen Lysaker torg 15 Storebrand Norwegian Broker 2,000 Lysaker Smeltedigelen 1 OBOS Berendzen 1,000 Inner City East Sandvika Business Center Attivo Eiendomsutvikling AS Regional Tax office, Sandvika 3,000 Sandvika Grenseveien 92 Entra Eiendom Skala 1,500 Helsfyr

18 The Oslo Office Market Year-End Rent Levels The figure shows rent levels based on signed contracts; both new signings and renegotiations Prime 1,950 2,100 2,700 3,900 3,750 2,700 2,850 3,100 3,400 3,750 3,800 High std CBD 1,550 1,700 1,900 2,300 2,300 2,200 2,350 2,550 2,850 2,900 2,900 Newer space CBD 1,700 1,900 2,000 2,600 2,600 2,500 2,550 2,650 2,850 2,900 2,900 Good std CBD 1,250 1,300 1,400 1,900 1,900 1,850 1,900 2,250 2,250 2,400 2,450 High std Skøyen 2,450 2,650 2,700 High std west fringe 1,300 1,400 1,750 2,200 2,200 1,900 1,900 1,900 1,900 2,100 2,100 High std east fringe 1,100 1,150 1,300 1,550 1,650 1,550 1,650 1,650 1,700 1,800 1,800 Older, ineffective space Sources: Dagens Næringsliv Akershus Eiendom 10 Office Rents NOK / m 2 / year Nominal NOK The figure shows rent levels based on signed contracts, both new signings and renegotations H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H2 Prime High std CBD Newer space CBD Good std CBD High std Skøyen High std west fringe High std east fringe Older, ineffective space Sources: Dagens Næringsliv Akershus Eiendom

19

20 The Oslo Office Market 20 Survey of Relocation Patterns RELOCATION PATTERNS FOR 2014 Akershus Eiendom annually collects and analyses a representative sample of recently signed lease contracts to map tenants relocation patterns across Oslo. This year s sample consists of 65 tenants occupying m² (excluding renegotiated contracts and extensions), to produce the annual relocation statistics shown in figure 11, seen on the next page. Some of the largest individual contracts signed in late 2014 are listed in the recent market activity chapter. Total volume of signed leases is down compared to earlier years, and this is, as mentioned, due to the lack of large lease contracts and a generally slow leasing market in CONCLUSIONS FROM THE 2014 SURVEY Staying within the same greater area is still the typical trend for tenants relocating. During 2014 very few decided to move out of their area, with the share staying for all areas being 69 % of the total data sample. As earlier years, tenants located in the western part of Oslo decided to stay in the same area as opposed to moving elsewhere. The net effect for Oslo west is positive, and significantly higher than the other areas. Tenants who chose to relocate within the CBD areas have decreased slightly during 2014 compared to earlier years. 62 % of all relocating tenants in the area decided to stay, whereas the tenants relocating from CBD were quite equally divided between eastern and western parts of Oslo, however slightly favouring the western locations. The net effect for the CBD area is mildly negative for Based on historical behaviour, tenants relocating from eastern Oslo tend to favour western locations over Oslo CBD. This is mainly due to rent levels. Surprisingly this year, there is significantly more volume relocating to the CBD areas compared to western Oslo. This is driven by two larger lease contracts taking up almost 65 % of the total moving volume for the tenants relocating to Oslo CBD. IMPLICATIONS FROM THE TEN YEAR RESULTS OF THE SURVEY Ten-year results of our relocation survey are shown in the bottom graphs. Tenants relocating from CBD to eastern areas seem to stabilize around its five year average of 20 %. However, the trend from the initiation of this survey in 2005 is positive. Western Oslo tenants are still reluctant to move eastwards, and the area continues to hold the highest percentage of tenants staying within the same area. Only 54 % of the eastern Oslo tenants chose to stay, whereas 36 % chose to relocate to CBD. This is the highest figure registered since 2010.

21 The Oslo Office Market Relocation trends 2014 The map shows the moving patterns of tenants who signed new contracts for office space during 2014, as represented by their volumes m² Staying 94% Oslo m m 1600m² Staying 54% m The CBD is limited in the west at Solli plass and in the east at Bjørvika. The tenants will physically move between 2014 and m m² Staying 62% 1500 m Oslo CBD m Oslo West Oslo East Oslo West Net effect: m Oslo CBB Net effect: m Oslo East Net effect: m Akershus Eiendom 12 Moving trends From CBD, West and East All tenants included in the survey: Have signed a new lease contract, It is not a condition that the company has physically moved during the year. Will occupy more than 500 m² of office space in their new location. 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% Share of office space 10% 0% Moving from CBD Moving to CBD Moving to West Moving to East Moving from West Moving from East Akershus Eiendom

22 The Oslo Office Market 22 Vacancy status Oslo office vacancy measured as floor space available now or within 3 months stands at 8 % as of January 2015, or 655,000 m². This is up 0.5 % since last quarter, and 1 % up from one year ago. Vacancy in the CBD areas is on average 6.0 %, slightly higher than the average 2014 level of closer to 5.0 %. More office space was converted into other purposes during 2014 compared to what was constructed and completed over the same period. As can be seen from the graph, net office supply was thus negative. Seen in isolation, this should suggest a decrease in vacancy. However, due to the low volume of new signed leases the past year, the demand of space did not keep pace with the new vacancies becoming available during the year. As employment has increased during 2014, this is mainly due to tenants' uncertainty about the future and the resulting reluctance to commit to new lease contracts. Lysaker, inner city east and Økern are the areas with the highest vacancy rates, all above 13.5 %. The CBD areas vacancy currently stands at 6 %, whereas prime CBD is up from 4 % last January to 6.3 % this year. Despite this increase it is still considered being at a low level, as the demand for premises in this area is high. The largest vacant spaces as of January were Østre Aker vei 90 at Økern with 27,000 m² vacant and Nydalsveien 28 with 20,000m² vacant located in Nydalen. As of January, 13 premises larger than 10,000 m² were vacant. trends Our Oslo office vacancy forecast (see graph 14) is mainly based on future expected employment, our own surveys and estimates for new constructions and demand, as well as macro analysts forecasts for economic activity. Preliminary figures show that for the period , between 85,000 and 120,000 m² of new office space will enter the market each year. Our estimate of office space being converted into other purposes still remains at 65,000 m² every year, which gives a very modest net supply of office space throughout the next years. A known volume of large lease contracts expiring during the years , as well as positive forecasts for long-term employment growth, are drivers for increased absorption of space over the coming years. Taking this into account, we believe future vacancy will decrease slightly after being stable throughout Vacancy for the CBD areas are expected to stay 2-3 % lower than the market average.

23 The Oslo Office Market Oslo Office Vacancy, January 2015 This map shows vacancy in the various office areas of Oslo in January Space counted is available at the latest by march 31. Oslo Outer West Ullevål Majorstuen Nydalen Inner City North Sinsen Storo Kjelsås Grefsen Økern Oslo Outer East Alna-Ulven Skøyen Inner City West Sentrum Inner City East Helsfyr-Bryn Lysaker Ryen Fornebu Oslo Outer South < 17,5 % < 15 % < 12,5 % < 10 % < 7,5 % < 5 % < 2,5 % Akershus Eiendom 14 Oslo Office Vacancy, E m² office space The columns show how vacancy changes due to demand. The forecasts of new demand and supply are based on knowledge about spesific office developments and the official estimates for employments growth. The office vacancy will develop relatively flat for the coming years given today s knowledge of supply and expectations of future demand E 2017E 2018E 13.0% 13.0% 11.0% 4.0% 9.0% 7.0% 4.5% 5.0% 8.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.5% 7.0% 8 % 8 % 8 % 7,5 % Actual Forecast Vacancy level by the start of the year Net new office space added Change in demand (absorbed space) Sources: Akershus Eiendom Various developers

24 The Oslo Office Market Vacancy risk, The map shows the risk of future vacancy within each sub-area in Oslo in the coming two years until January 2017, based on known volumes of office space entering the market during the period, either through new vacant buildings or because the tenant has signed to move out. The analysis does not take into account the effects of tenants moving between sub-areas; it is solely a supply-side risk analysis. Oslo Outer West Lysaker Skøyen Ullevål Majorstuen Inner City West Nydalen Inner City North Sentrum Sinsen Storo Kjelsås Grefsen Økern Inner City East Oslo Outer East Helsfyr-Bryn Ryen Alna-Ulven Fornebu Oslo Outer South High risk Medium risk Low risk Akershus Eiendom

25

26 The Oslo Office Market 26 Development new office construction New office developments were completed in Only 43,000 m² of new office space entered the market, compared to 147,000 m² in New office space being finalised in 2015 is expected to be 160,000 m² and only 20 % of the new stock is speculative. For 2016 and 2017 the volume of known new supply is 82,000 m² and 44,000 m² respectively. The new projects locations and status are depicted in figure 16. There have been few new office buildings initiated since our last report. Dronning Eufemias gate 42 and Dronning Eufemias gate 6b are expected to be completed in Both projects are speculative and contain about 4,000 m² office space each. Much of the ongoing development is concentrated to the area around the central station and the eastern part of the city centre. The largest project in this area is Sundt-kvartalet comprising nearly 28,000 m² office premises. It is a collaboration between Entra Eiendom and Skanska, and Skanska will move into the new office building upon completion in the end of % of the building is vacant. The new head office for Statoil Fuel and retail in Schweigaards gate 16 will soon be completed, and Entra Eiendom has recently signed a leasing contract with Dinamo for 1,500 m² of the vacant space. Since the last report, Norwegian Property has signed a new leasing contract with Sektor Gruppen for one floor in Verkstedveien 1 at Skøyen. The project will be completed in September, and half of the floor space is still vacant. Schage Eiendom will soon start the demolishing of the existing building in Drammensveien and are planning to finalize the zoning process and start the construction of 25,000 m² new office space in August. Another large development site in Oslo is HasleLinje at Økern in the northeast, where it is possible to build a total of 100,000 m² office space. The two first construction stages will be completed in 2015 and the third will be finished in summer Construction of new space at Fornebu, except for the Fornebuporten project, is expected to slow down until the new metro line is ready, which is now expected to happen in Trends With a slowdown in the GDP growth, we do not expect to see much activity for opening up new areas for development in the coming couple of years. A number of large tenants might choose new buildings during 2015, for completion in As the price difference between the fringe areas in general and the CBD is now record high, the announcements of any new project will signal which area has an advantage, and whether the difference will stay or change. Construction costs As can be seen in graph 21, the order backlog

27 for the total construction industry has decreased by 5 % during the third quarter of While the reserve of orders in civil engineering decreased by 12 % during this period, the reserve of building orders increased by 1 %. Despite the decrease in the order backlog of the construction industry, it is still 2 % higher than in the third quarter of The backlog of residential projects has decreased significantly during the last year, and the activity is likely to decline somewhat in The activity within the commercial sector has increased in the same period. Akershus Eiendom s estimated turnkey cost for new office buildings in Oslo, shown in graph 20, is currently at NOK 20,000 per m² office space, which is unchanged from our last report. Our estimate is changed from a flat development to a slight decline, about 5 %, in building costs over the next 12 months.