SSATP: Sub-Saharan Africa Transport Policy Performance Review (World Bank Contract No )

Transcription

1 SSATP: Sub-Saharan Africa Transport Policy Performance Review (World Bank Contract No ) Summary of Project Findings SSATP Annual Conference December 11, 2013 Dakar, Senegal

2 Significant transport sector reforms Including but not limited to: Road Sector: Creation of road agencies, road funds Rail & Port Sectors: Restructuring and privatization Transit Traffic: Creation of Corridor Agencies, institutions Regulations: Reforms in line with new realities Have these reforms worked? 2

3 Overview About the Review Findings Recommendations 3

4 Purpose of Review Assess the performance of transport policies, strategies and initiative in Sub-Saharan Africa, and progress vis-à-vis themes of SSATP Second Development Plan (DP-2, ): Theme 1: Pro-poor and pro-growth Theme 2: Sustainable institutional & financial arrangements Theme 3: Improvement of transit (corridor) transport 4

5 Scope of Review Phase 1: Six countries Benin Burkina Faso Ethiopia Gabon Ghana Zambia Phase 2: Twelve countries Phase 2 at SSATP s discretion Countries to be confirmed 5

6 Review Framework Transport Policy Process Policy Objectives Strategies & Initiatives Performance Outcomes Performance Review and Monitoring 6

7 Methodology Key Study Questions Review Existing Literature Review Existing Data Sources Information Consolidation & Management Identification of Data Gaps Field Surveys & Consultations Policy Performance Evaluation Framework Policy Performance Evaluation Performance Measures (as data allows) Value Judgements Validation and Reporting 7

9 Evaluation of Transport Policy Performance Has transport policy in Sub- Saharan Africa worked? In some cases Yes in other cases No in most cases, it s Not clear. 9

10 Summary of Findings Transport Policy Process and DP-2 Themes 10

11 Evaluation of Transport Policy Process Relatively clear Generally aligned Few targets Policy Objectives Limited capacity (HR, IT, Info)? Prioritization challenges Few metrics Financial resources Few data Strategies & Initiatives Performance Outcomes Performance Review and Monitoring Pervasive weakness Often project / donor driven (e.g. MDGs) Limited capacity (data collection, monitoring, etc.) 11

12 Transport Policy Performance and DP-2 (i) Theme 1: Comprehensive pro-poor and pro-growth transport sector strategies Traditional objectives: Reliable, efficient, safe and affordable multi-modal transportation networks and services Implicit (not explicit) Pro-poor/Pro-growth / MDG objectives Largely ad hoc and inconsistently applied Theme 1 strategies and initiatives (e.g. labour-intensive construction, HIV/AIDS awareness) and related programs. Limited to road sector. Almost no reporting on Theme 1 performance outcomes Challenge in establishing causal linkages to transport Project-specific reporting, when donor required 12

13 Transport Policy Performance and DP-2 (ii) Theme 2: Sustainable institutional and financial arrangements for road infrastructure (and rural and urban transport strategies) Road Agencies Autonomous road agencies more effective in managing road network than line department greater degree of managerial freedom. User (private sector ) representation on boards is useful. Outsourcing of non-core activities is a best practice, but need to ensure adequate capacity in the market. 13

14 Transport Policy Performance and DP-2 (iib) Theme 2: Sustainable institutional and financial arrangements for road infrastructure (and rural and urban transport strategies) Road sector spending largest share of transport spending (75% - 95%) Not all Phase 1 countries have adopted second generation road fund. Fuel levy main source of funding, but revenue falls short of requirements. In all Phase 1 countries, revenues currently generated by the road fund are insufficient to meet their mandate. Many funding sources unused. Percentage of RSDP that is Funded Through Internal Country Sources Benin Burkina Faso Ethiopia Gabon Ghana Zambia 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 14

15 Transport Policy Performance and DP-2 (iii) Theme 3: Improvement of transit transport along selected corridors Who s objective? Regional economic community? Corridor organization? Individual countries? Corridor organizations appear more effective than RECs in driving corridor initiatives Lack of coordination in implementation across corridor countries Limited dedicated resources at the country level Effectiveness of initiatives unclear from users standpoint Limited information/metrics on performance ALCO / Borderless good performance monitoring and evaluation 15

16 Road Sector 16

17 Road Sector: Key Findings (i) Most Phase 1 countries have Road Sector Development Plan (RSDP) Focus on physical construction Implicit reference to DP-2 themes (safety is exception) Limited information on prioritization framework Spending typically below RSDP budget Burkina Faso Burkina Faso Classified Paved/Unpaved (km), 2008 Benin Ethiopia Gabon Ghana Zambia Condition of Paved Road Network (%), 2008 Benin Ethiopia Gabon Ghana Zambia Thousand kilometres Classified Paved Roads (km) Classified Unpaved Roads (km) Good Fair Poor 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Source: World DataBank, World Development Indicators, CPCS Analysis 17

18 Rail Sector 18

19 Tonnes of Freight Carried, Index, Year of Concessioning = 100 Rail Sector: Key Findings Rail reforms driven by Structural Adjustment policies of mid- 1990s, rather than DP-2 themes, or MDGs Rail reforms did succeed in reducing/eliminating fiscal burden (which was the objective) Other improvements less clear (service levels, tariffs, mode shift, etc.) All concessions have been problematic due to both operator and government action/inaction. Concessioned railways doing better than those not concessioned (still operating) Total Freight Rail Traffic Before, After Concession (Year of Concession C=100) Time Relative to Year of Concessioning, C Burkina Faso Gabon Zambia Note: in Zambia tonnage fell, but ton-kms rose (rail operator seeking more profitable long-haul traffic) 19

20 Port /Maritime Sector 20

21 C-9 C-8 C-7 C-6 C-5 C-4 C-3 C-2 C-1 C C+1 C+2 C+3 C+4 C+5 C+6 TEU Handled, Index, Concession Year = 100 Port/Maritime Sector: Key Findings Port reforms more positive than rail reforms Landlord port model most typical reform In almost every case, government support for operations reduced or ended Operators largely profitable, often paying concession fees to government Private capital investment fair Contribution to DP-2 Themes unclear Total TEUs Before, After Introduction of Private Sector Management (Year of Reform C=100) Time Relative to Year of Concessioning, C Benin Gabon Ghana Source: Compilation of various sources, CPCS Analysis 21

22 Transit Corridors 22

23 Time of Import (days) Efficiency of Customs Clearance Processes Transit Corridors: Key Findings Objectives of increasing the efficiency of transit traffic, reducing transit times (e.g. customs delays) and transportation costs are largely consistent across countries. Effectiveness not clear Corridor agencies/initiatives largely dependent on donors (Dar es Salaam Corridor Committee unique in having user-pay principle (fee collection at border) Challenges Poor monitoring and evaluation Sustainability of funding? Regional commitments, but national implementation (and funding) Jurisdictional/donor coordination Too many studies, not enough action Lack of dedicated country resources Efficiency of Customs Clearance Processes Benin (good) Burkina Faso (fair) 2.1 Ethiopia (poor) Gabon (poor) 1.9 Ghana (good) 1.7 Zambia (fair) Source: World Bank Logistics Performance Index (2007, 2010, 2012), CPCS Analysis Time to Import (days) Benin (good) 50 Burkina Faso (good 40 Ethiopia (poor) Gabon (fair) 30 Ghana (good) 20 Zambia (good) Source: World Databank, World Development Indicators, CPCS Analysis 23

24 Borderless Initiative: Road Checkpoints and Transit Performance along Key Corridors in West Africa 24

26 Recommendations No easy answers or silver bullet solutions. Central to the success of future solutions is the recognition of the realities and constraints faced by transport policy makers in SSA. Benefits in simplifying transport policy process. 26

27 Policy objectives Establish clear, measurable targets for objectives Focus on traditional transport sector objectives, performance indicators rather than pro-poor, progrowth indicators that are difficult to link to transport Reduce (not increase) number of targets/measures Establish and stick to investment prioritization process 27

28 Strategies and initiatives Focus on capacity development Qualified technical staff (and higher wages to keep them) Information and information management systems Donors to provide funding to support the transport sector, rather than specific projects within the transport sector. 28

29 Monitoring & Evaluations Simplify Simplified Indicators Limit performance indicators to what can realistically be measured, supplemented with informed judgement Improved Information Management Develop realistic data management systems that can be used to inform indicators and judgements appropriately Capacity Development Support Promote necessary human resource and institutional capacities in performance monitoring and evaluation 29

30 Proposed Methodological Modifications for Phase 2 Focus on fewer and more traditional transport sector performance indicators Focus on countries with advanced performance monitoring and evaluation processes to distill best practices 30

31 Some Key Takeaways Poor performance monitoring and evaluation undermines overall policy process Institutional weaknesses - worthy of efforts to improve, but must recognize currently reality Causal link between transport and growth/poverty alleviation difficult to establish but fundamental enabler 31

32 Questions and Discussions Marc-André Roy, IMBA, CMILT Partner, Vice President T: x 306 C: F:

33 CPCS Global management consulting firm (est. 1969)) Focused on transport, energy, and urban development sectors Strategy, economic analysis, policy, transaction advisory services Transport practice is multimodal (rail, port/marine, road, air, transit, etc.) Over 1000 projects in more than 90 countries CPCS offices and countries of work experience (shaded) 33

34 Summary of Recent CPCS Experience Freight Rail 100+ Strategy mandates 8 Transactions $3+ billion in deals Port & Terminals 35+ Strategy mandates 30+ Transactions $5+ billion in deals Multimodal Transport 30+ Strategy mandates Passenger & Transit 10+ Strategy mandates 3 transactions $3 billion in deals 34