Allocation to Investment Grade Corporate Bonds is it time to reconsider? KPMG Investment Advisory August 2013

Transcription

1 Allcatin t Investment Grade Crprate Bnds is it time t recnsider? KPMG Investment Advisry August 2013

2 Intrductin In this paper we take a fresh lk at the investment case fr UK Investment Grade Crprate Bnds, fcusing n the challenges the asset class faces in meeting its twin strategic bjectives - hedging liability risk and delivering a return abve gilts. Our cnclusin is that a cmbinatin f alternative liability matching and return generating slutins (as shwn in the diagram t the right) culd better meet these bjectives. Typical current...with a dual bjective...and KPMG s prpsed allcatin... fr IG... alternatives. Other assets UK IG Crprate Bnds Return Credit Spread Diversified Prtfli f Credit Opprtunities Interest Liability Rate ILGs (r LDI Match Expsure arrangement) Executive Summary UK Investment Grade Crprate Bnds ( IG ) have lng been held in typical UK Pensin Scheme prtflis t (partially) hedge liability risk whilst delivering an expected risk-adjusted return abve gilts. In this paper we cver the tw strategic bjectives f IG in islatin, discussing the drawbacks with the current allcatin and cnsidering alternative slutins. Our cnclusin is that there are mre efficient ways t achieve what pensin schemes lk fr their IG allcatin t deliver, namely thrugh a cmbinatin f; - Index-Linked Gilts ( ILG ) r a Liability Driven Investment ( LDI ) strategy with the ptential fr delivering mre accurate liability matching; and - A diversified prtfli f credit pprtunities with the ptential fr delivering a better risk-adjusted return abve gilts. We believe that a cmbined strategy f ILG (r LDI) and Diversified Credit Opprtunities can be structured t reduce the verall risk f the investment strategy thrugh better liability hedging, whilst maintaining, r enhancing, the expected return f the verall prtfli. Why nw Since the financial crisis the traditinal majr players in credit markets (such as banks) have begun t exit these markets as they lk t deleverage their balance sheets. A funding gap in private credit markets has therefre develped, which has pened up pprtunities fr nn-traditinal investrs (such as Pensin Schemes) t prvide finance at attractive spreads. Over recent years fund managers have als develped a range f prducts and strategies fr investrs such as pensin schemes t best access such pprtunities and ther diversified sub- asset classes within credit. At KPMG we think pensin schemes can use the imprved access t credit markets as an pprtunity t simultaneusly als address the drawbacks f IG as liability hedging asset class (see next page) t better manage their liability risk. We understand that ur alternative apprach may nt suit everyne with a IG allcatin but believe that ur prpsed slutin has a number f superir characteristics cmpared t the traditinal apprach KPMG LLP, a UK limited liability partnership, is a subsidiary f KPMG Eurpe LLP and a member firm f the KPMG netwrk f independent member firms affiliated with KPMG Internatinal Cperative, a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. The KPMG name, lg and cutting thrugh cmplexity are registered trademarks r trademarks f KPMG Internatinal.

3 Investment Objective 1: Hedging Liability Risk On this page we cnsider the first strategic bjective f IG - t hedge liability risk. We highlight the drawbacks f IG in this cntext and prvide alternative slutins that we believe better address these cncerns. Using IG Bnds t Hedge Liability Risk What are the Issues? Pensin Scheme liabilities are a series f lng dated cashflws, with the majrity at least partially linked t inflatin. The liability present value is generally very sensitive t interest rates (with a typical Pensin Scheme liability duratin in the regin f 20 years). On an accunting basis, the liability value is als sensitive t UK credit spreads.* Given these features f liabilities, we assess IG and the characteristics that we believe limit its ability t effectively hedge liability risks, in the table belw: IG CHARACTERISTIC ISSUE 1.Overall duratin ^ c. 8 years An IG allcatin is less sensitive t interest rates than the liabilities they aim t hedge 2.Yield Curve The cashflws f IG are generally f Liabilities are mre sensitive t interest rates at the lng Psitining ^ shrter maturities relative t liability end f the yield curve cmpared t crprate bnds and cashflws (see left hand side chart therefre IG des nt hedge efficiently against changes belw) in the shape f the yield curve 3. Inflatin hedging Negligible inflatin linkage Inflatin (a key liability risk) is nt addressed 4. Credit Risk Suffers lsses frm defaults and The liability value is nt affected by defaults and dwngrades dwngrades (even n an accunting basis) ^ We nte that sme Schemes allcate t lng dated IG t better address issues 1 and 2. Hwever, the duratin f the ver 15 year UK IG index is still belw that f liabilities and ther issues arise such as higher cncentratin risk (with less issuers in the index). What are the alternatives A different apprach wuld be t mve a prtin f the previus IG hlding t the ILG ver 15 year universe with duratin f c.25yrs. - The right hand chart shws the cashflws generated if 50% f capital (as an example) is invested as such. The ther 50% f capital wuld be freed up fr investment in credit pprtunities (see next page) which wuld prvide cashflws at shrter dated maturities. This strategy better addresses the three issues faced by IG by prviding mre duratin, yield curve psitining that mre accurately hedges the liability curve psitining (as can be seen in right hand side chart) and inflatin linkage. A mre sphisticated alternative wuld be t implement an LDI arrangement instead f ILGs. Cashflws frm a 100m investment in IG all stcks index verlaid ver 100m f liability cashflws (grey shade) f a typical Pensin Scheme Cashflws frm a 50m investment in ILG ver 15 year index verlaid ver 100m f liability cashflws (grey shade) f a typical Pensin Scheme * We nte that an IG allcatin is ften used t prvide a hedge against accunting basis liabilities. Hwever, accunting basis liabilities are still expsed t issues 1 t 3 (in table abve). Additinally, IG desn t prvide full prtectin against spread mvements. We wuld therefre suggest ur prpsed apprach, in aggregate, is n less effective as a match fr accunting liabilities KPMG LLP, a UK limited liability partnership, is a subsidiary f KPMG Eurpe LLP and a member firm f the KPMG netwrk f independent member firms affiliated with KPMG Internatinal Cperative, a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. The KPMG name, lg and cutting thrugh cmplexity are registered trademarks r trademarks f KPMG Internatinal.

4 Investment Objective 2: A return abve gilts We nw mve n t cnsider the secnd strategic bjective f IG bnds t deliver a risk adjusted return abve gilts and discuss alternatives in credit markets (which have recently becme bth mre easily accessible t Pensin Schemes ver recent years) that we believe culd deliver better risk adjusted returns. Using IG Bnds t generate returns The detrimental impact f liability matching requirements Traditinally, UK Pensin Schemes have restricted their crprate bnd allcatins t UK IG because these are mre clsely related t UK interest rate mvements (as are UK pensin scheme liabilities) than in the case f nn-uk strategies. Hwever, if ther assets (ILG r LDI slutin discussed in previus page) are prviding the desired liability matching expsure, then the ratinale fr restricting credit expsure t the UK becmes less relevant. Withut this cnstraint, a Pensin Scheme can spread credit risk t a much brader pprtunity set and therefre create a better diversified and mre efficient prtfli that delivers a greater returns abve gilts. Furthermre, with the traditinal IG allcatin the credit and interest rate expsures are tied tgether. Under ur alternative apprach these tw characteristics are uncupled. - This feature allws the targeting f specific credit maturities fr example, the relatively lwer risk shrter maturity credit space becmes mre accessible. What are the alternatives The alternative strategy is t invest a prtin (say 50%) f the current allcatin t IG (with expected returns f c.gilts +150bps) t a well diversified prtfli f wider credit pprtunities (with an expected return f c.gilts +300bps) which can therefre maintain the return expectatin f the verall prtfli. T increase expected return prtfli is likely t increase credit risk (in terms f average credit rating f the allcatin) cmpared t the current IG allcatin but this is ffset with capital expsure t credit being halved. In the table we shw sme f the pprtunities in credit that we believe are suitable fr pensin scheme investment in tday s market, as well as the incumbent allcatin t IG. ASSET DESCRIPTION RATING SPREAD (BPS) UK IG Bnds Asset-Backed Securities High quality Sterling denminated public debt issued by bth UK and freign cmpanies. Debt instruments that are backed by cashflws frm a pl f cllateral, including mrtgages, credit cards, student lans etc. Leveraged Lans Private, mstly flating, lans made t belw investment grade cmpanies High Yield Emerging Market Debt CRE Debt Public bnds issued by belw investment grade cmpanies that can access public markets despite relative credit weakness. Public debt issued by bth svereign and crprate bdies situated in emerging market ecnmies Lans made t ther investrs fr the purchase r refinancing f Eurpean cmmercial real estate. UNIVERSE SIZE AAA-BBB bn AAA-BB ,000bn BB-CCC bn BB-CCC ,200bn AA-B ,700bn AA-A bn We believe that each f these asset classes in their wn right ffer attractive risk adjusted returns. Hwever, imprtantly, a prtfli that cmbines several f these will als benefit frm diversificatin acrss credit characteristics (such as senirity and security) as well as gegraphies. The pprtunities discussed can each be accessed via individual allcatins t the sub asset class, r via a single manager wh allcates dynamically acrss varius sub credit asset classes (i.e. An Abslute Return Bnd fund r Diversified Credit fund). The single manager apprach is applicable t smaller Schemes, where as a larger Schemes can chse between the individual allcatins r a single manager apprach KPMG LLP, a UK limited liability partnership, is a subsidiary f KPMG Eurpe LLP and a member firm f the KPMG netwrk f independent member firms affiliated with KPMG Internatinal Cperative, a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. The KPMG name, lg and cutting thrugh cmplexity are registered trademarks r trademarks f KPMG Internatinal.

5 Cnclusins and Next Steps We cnclude n this page by cnsidering hw ur alternative strategy wuld impact the verall hedging, risk and return characteristics f a Pensin Scheme investment strategy. The benefits f the utlined alternative apprach Liability Hedging: Prvides inflatin hedging, greater duratin and better yield curve psitining relative t liabilities. The allcatin shuld therefre reduce liability risk. Prtfli Risk: Althugh there is mre abslute credit risk in the credit pprtunities allcatin relative t crprate bnds there is nly 50% f capital and als less cncentratin risk. We therefre believe that the cmbinatin f investing in gilts and credit pprtunities leads t less investment risk in the verall prtfli. Return Expectatin: As well as reducing ttal risk, we believe the alternative apprach will maintain the expected return currently prvided by IG. In fact, shuld a Scheme have the appetite, we believe that the apprach has the flexibility t increase the return (n a risk adjusted basis) by increasing credit risk in the credit pprtunities prtfli. Flexibility: Additinal t the abve benefits, the characteristics f IG allcatin are typically fixed t the characteristics f the benchmark index. Our apprach allws a Scheme t tailr each f its interest duratin, credit duratin, credit risk and inflatin linkage individually as desired. We summarise the key characteristics f the incumbent IG allcatin and ur alternative strategy using a 50:50 split (as an example) in the chart t the right. KPMG Investment Advisry View We believe that ur alternative apprach prvides a mre sphisticated and efficient way f achieving a Pensin Scheme s ultimate aim t meet liability cashflws than IG. Ptential next questins are: 1. Is the KPMG alternative apprach relevant and apprpriate given yur investment bjectives and current strategy? 2. What wuld be yur split between ILG s / LDI and credit pprtunities (i.e. d yu want t de-risk, maintain risk r increase risk)? 3. What is the best apprach fr yu t address yur liability risk (ILG r LDI)? 4. Hw d yu want t access credit pprtunities and hw much return and risk shuld be prvided frm yur credit prtfli? 50% ILG (OR LDI) Interest Rate Duratin: 20+ Credit Duratin : 0 Inflatin Linkage: 100% Return Abve Gilts: 0bps Investment Grade Crprate Bnds Interest Rate Duratin: 8 Credit Duratin: 8 Inflatin Linkage: 0% Return Abve Gilts: 150bps Current expsures Example new expsures 50% CREDIT OPPORTUNITIES Interest Rate Duratin: 0 5 Credit Duratin: 0 (< 5)* Inflatin Linkage: 0% Return Abve Gilts: 300bps - 400bps COMBINED: Alternative Strategy Interest Rate Duratin: 10+ Credit Duratin: Inflatin Linkage: 50% Return abve Gilts: 150bps - 200bps * credit pprtunities may include flating rate investments. As such, credit duratin will be less than r equal t interest rate duratin KPMG LLP, a UK limited liability partnership, is a subsidiary f KPMG Eurpe LLP and a member firm f the KPMG netwrk f independent member firms affiliated with KPMG Internatinal Cperative, a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. The KPMG name, lg and cutting thrugh cmplexity are registered trademarks r trademarks f KPMG Internatinal.

6 CONTACT US Alex Kriath T +44 (0) E Alex.Kriath@kpmg.c.uk Jn Exley T +44 (0) E Jn.exley@kpmg.c.uk Ajith Nair T +44 (0) E Ajith.Nair@kpmg.c.uk Ben Knx T +44 (0) E Ben,Knx@kpmg.c.uk The infrmatin cntained herein is f a general nature and is nt intended t address the circumstances f any particular individual r entity. Althugh we endeavur t prvide accurate and timely infrmatin, there can be n guarantee that such infrmatin is accurate as f the date it is received r that it will cntinue t be accurate in the future. N ne shuld act n such infrmatin withut apprpriate prfessinal advice after a thrugh examinatin f the particular situatin KPMG LLP, a UK limited liability partnership, is a subsidiary f KPMG Eurpe LLP and a member firm f the KPMG netwrk f independent member firms affiliated with KPMG Internatinal Cperative, a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. The KPMG name, lg and cutting thrugh cmplexity are registered trademarks r trademarks f KPMG Internatinal. RR Dnnelley RRD July 2013