PH&N High Yield Bond Fund Update and Outlook
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1 PH&N Advisor conference call PH&N High Yield Bond Fund Update and Outlook June 16, 2009 Presentation ti by: Hanif Mamdani, Head of Alternative Investments Lead Manager, PH&N High Yield Bond Fund 1
2 Credit Market Overview This is a fundamentally different type of cycle than 1990 and 2002 banking crisis on top of a recession massive deleveraging global scope of problems Financial crisis in 2008 economic crisis in 2009 Yet there are some positives unprecedented policy response valuations are cheap (although h not as cheap as March 09) evidence of thawing in credit markets Over time, historically cheap valuations will win the day but recovery could be choppy and returns will vary across markets That said, it does appear that high yield has turned the corner for this cycle 2
3 Corporate Bond Performance versus Gov't of Canada's* Annual Performance Comparisons 14.0% 9.0% tial Return Differen 4.0% -1.0% -6.0% 60% -11.0% -16.0% Dec-84 Dec-86 Dec-88 Dec-90 * DEX Mid-term Bond Index Dec-92 Dec-94 Dec-96 Dec-98 Dec-00 Dec-02 Dec-04 Dec-06 Dec-08 Source: credit\mid can v (Dec31 1 yr) 5/31/08 Y-T-D as at May-09 3
4 BAA Corporate Bond Yields Minus 10-Year Treasury Bond Yields bps Source: credit\baa corporate spreads
5 Current Credit Crisis Longer and More Pronounced Than Past Episodes for Canadian Financials 450 Royal Bank of Canada 5-year Sub-debt Spreads Spre ead (basis poin nts) bps 50 0 Dec-97 Dec-98 4 mths 7 mths Dec-99 Dec-00 Dec-01 Dec-02 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec mths Source: credit\royalbank 6/5/09 5
6 Timing Entry into the U.S. High Yield Market Can HY Spreads Peak this Early in Default Cycle? HY Spreads U.S. HY Default Rate 1040 bps 9.2% Default Rate / Yield Spread Dec-88 Dec-90 Dec-92 Dec-94 Dec-96 Dec-98 Dec-00 Dec-02 Dec-04 Dec-06 Dec-08 Dec-10 6
7 High Yield Market Yields 13% But Averages Can Be Deceptive Non-distressed Market % of Outstandin ng Distressed Market Price Buckets Examples of Distressed Names Traditional High Yield Names Claire s Stores 10.5% due Clear Channel 10.75% due ArvinMeritor 8.125% due Freescale Semiconductor % due K. Hovnonian Homes 6.375% due NewPage 12% due Hawker Beechcraft 9.75% due Verso Paper % due Harrah s 5.75% due Price Yield Price Yield ($) (%) ARAMARK 8.5% due 2015 ($) 97 (%) 9.1 AES Corp 7.75% due Cablevision 7.875% due Chesapeake 6.875% due Community Health 8.875% due DirecTV 6.375% due El Paso 6.875% due Host Hotels 7.125% due Starwood Hotels 6.75% due
8 PH&N s Approach to High Yield Bonds Middle of the credit spectrum provides best risk-adjusted returns over time Take advantage of anomalies around investment-grade/high-yield border PH&N HYBF will hold up well during bear markets but will lag peers in bull markets Over a cycle, we believe this approach wins the day 8
9 PH&N Industry and Security Selection Process 9
10 PH&N High Yield Bond Fund Portfolio Structure as of May 31, 2009 Rating Distribution Industry Distribution BB & Below 6.6% Unrated 17.2% AAA 10.5% AA 4.2% A 14.8% Cable 7.6% Telecom 11.0% Cash 10.5% Banks 8.9% Industrials 4.4% Media 7.8% BBB 46.7% Retailing 16.1% Real Estate/CMBS 16.1% Non Bank Financial 17.6% Maturity Distribution >10 Yrs 20.9% <1 Yr 14.2% Portfolio Duration: Average Term to Maturity: 4.54 yrs 7.92 yrs 5-10 Yrs 28.2% 1-5 Yrs 36.7% Pre-Fee Portfolio Yield: 6.39% DEX Universe Index Yield: 3.52% Incremental 2.87% 10
11 PH&N High Yield Bond Fund A Peek at the Portfolio Issue Jan 2009 Yield* June 2009 Yield** Change in Yield Loblaws % 6.93% -188 bp Morgan Stanley % 5.46% -317 bp Sobeys % 7.20% -209 bp Bell % 7.05% -222 bp Bell Alliant % 6.71% -115 bp Suncor % 5.45% -153 bp Yellow Pages % 8.96% -3 bp *As of January 12, 2009 **As of June 11, 2009 Most large positions have performed very well and currently provide a more modest (but arguably still attractive) yield for the risk undertaken 11
12 PH&N High Yield Bond Fund Performance as of May 31, 2009 Annualized Returns to 1 Yr 2 Yrs 3 Yrs 5 Yrs 8 Yrs 2008 May 31, 2009 (Series D) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) MER (%) PH&N High Yield Bond Fund F DEX High Yield Index C ML Canadian HY Index DEX Universe Bond Index Annual Returns for Periods Ending May 31 (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) PH&N High Yield Bond Fund DEX High Yield Index ML Global HY Index DEX Universe Bond Index
13 Cumulative Growth of $100 since HYBF Inception $200 $175 HYBF ML Global High Yield Canadian Issuers Index DEX Universe $150 $125 $100 $75 Ju ul-00 Ju ul-01 Ju ul-02 Ju ul-03 Ju ul-04 Ju ul-05 Ju ul-06 Ju ul-07 Ju ul-08 *HYBF returns are net-of-fees **ML Global High Yield Canadian Issuers Index is 100% Cdn$ hedged 13
14 Concluding Remarks Investment-grade credit remains more attractive than high-yield on a risk-adjusted basis High-yield default cycle has yet to peak, but prices may have bottomed already Recoveries will be much lower than past cycles absence of DIPfi financingi problematic capital structures (e.g. top heavy, covenant light, Paid-in-Kind Debentures (PIKS)) so security selection is critical Despite precedents from previous cycles, high-yield spreads may have peaked 4-6 quarters ahead of peak defaults (very unusual) There may be another attractive entry point into high h yield if the economy falters or experiences a double-dip In the interim, better to wait in mid-quality corporates and collect favourable carry in our view 14
15 Fund/Contact Information Series Options: Fund Code MER Trailer F Series PHN % n/a C Series PHN % 0.50% RBC Regional Sales Manager Contact Info: Toll Free:
16 Required Disclosures This report and the information contained herein have been provided by Phillips, Hager & North Investment Management Ltd. (PH&N). PH&N has taken reasonable steps to provide current, accurate and reliable information, and believes the information to be so at publication time. This article is for information purposes only, and is not intended to provide legal, accounting, tax, investment, financial or other advice. Due to the possibility of human and/or mechanical error as well as other factors, including but not limited to technical or other inaccuracies or typographical errors or omissions, PH&N is not responsible for any errors or omissions contained herein. PH&N reserves the right at any time and without notice to change, amend or cease publication of the information. Any investment and economic outlook information contained in this report has been compiled by PH&N from various third party sources. Information obtained from third parties is believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made by PH&N, its affiliates or any other person as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. PH&N and its affiliates assume no responsibility for any errors or omissions. Copyright This report may not be reproduced, distributed or published without the written consent of PH&N. Commissions, trailing commissions, management fees and expenses all may be associated with mutual fund investments. Please read the prospectus bf before investing. Mutual funds are not guaranteed or insured, and their values may change frequently. Past performance may not be repeated. Phillips, Hager & North ( PH&N ) is a registered trade name for Phillips, Hager & North Investment Management Ltd. ( PH&NIM ) and its wholly owned subsidiary Phillips, Hager & North Investment Funds Ltd. ( PH&NIF ). PH&NIM is the fund manager and principal portfolio adviser for all PH&N investment funds. PH&NIF is the principal distributor of the units of the PH&N funds. 16
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