World Cup Betting Special

Transcription

1 WELCOME June Hello and welcome to this extra special World Cup 2010 Betting Issue produced by the Secret Betting Club. Through our contacts in the betting world we have drawn together some of the finest sports betting minds to get the lowdown on the best advice for this famous tournament. The World Cup as always will be a fantastic viewing spectacle and provide an ideal opportunity to make some money betting. Certainly if your own country did not qualify, by betting on the tournament, it should provide you with an extra incentive to watch the games should you need one! Each expert listed in this issue has a proven history of making a profit betting on football and we have no doubt that as you read the detailed analysis you will get a real insight into the workings of a betting professional. No stone has been left unturned in the quest to take advantage of what should be one of the biggest tournaments for betting turnover ever seen. Take your time to read the thoughts of each expert and follow them in on a number of the advised bets should you so wish. Each of the experts listed will also be supplying further advice as the tournament wears on, so be sure to check out each service for details on how to pick up more of their advice. If you enjoy this free issue, be sure to visit us at the Secret Betting Club to let us know your thoughts, as we would love to hear from you. Here is to a profitable World Cup and may the best team win! Mike Bishop & Dan Jones Editors CONTENTS: Welcome: Page 1. About Us: Page 2. Football Tipsters: Page 4. World Cup The Experts Page 6. Greg Gordon: Page 7. Matt Love: Page 12. Goran Trpevski: Page 16 Matt Nesbitt: Page 20. Sports Investor: Page 22. Mike Bishop: Page 26. Bet Advisor: Page 31. Page 1

2 SECRET BETTING CLUB: ABOUT US The Secret Betting Club is an exclusive service dedicated to helping you make money betting. We do this by proofing, reviewing and monitoring hundreds of betting tipsters, services and systems to show you as a member just who to follow to make a profit. We then report back to you each month with our Tipster Reports and Newsletters to continually update on the latest performance and services. If you are looking to make money betting, then you should look no further than our Hall of Fame, which features the crème de la crème of the betting tipster world. Who Are We And Why Should You Listen To Us? We have been in operation since May 2006 and in this time have produced 49 editions of our renowned monthly reports. We are also the only fully independent tipster monitoring service in operation and we accept no commissions or kickbacks for our reports (unlike many others). We ourselves are professional gamblers who put our own money on the line in our quest to make regular profits from sports betting. We do this by following the exact methods that we share with all members. We enjoy (as do many of our members) a lifestyle supported by professional gambling and it is our mission to make this happen for all. Put simply, it is possible to make money betting! By joining the Secret Betting Club, you will automatically have an edge over thousands of punters still scratching around for consistent profits. The Benefits Of Betting A Secret Betting Club Member Our service is ideal for anyone who wishes to start making money betting. Whether you are a novice or more experienced bettor, looking to make a full-time or part-time income, there is something for you! As a member, you receive: Full access to our renowned monthly Secret Betting Club issues, packed full of tipster & system reviews and techniques for making money betting. Full access to our fantastic Tipster Performance Reports, which contain the latest and historical performance figures as generated by more than 45 of the world s top tipsters. Access to articles with secret strategies and advice on making money betting from professional gamblers, Betfair traders and other experts in the field. Detailed updates on the best tipster services & systems that make you money, what they do, how they do it and if they are suitable for you. Page 2

3 Details and research into the all the latest betting and tipster scams, who they are and why you should avoid them. Never get caught out by a ripoff service again! 5 FREE fantastic Bonus gifts that we give away to you when you subscribe. This includes 4 profitable betting systems as well as our exclusive guide on how you can make risk free betting profits! Full access to our member s only website, which lists hundreds and hundreds of our past articles and reviews in an easy to view A to Z format. All back issues of our Secret Betting Club reports (which amounts to a huge amount of free information) Full access to our members only forum, which is packed with shared insight into the world of making money betting. Details on the deals, discounts and special offers available exclusively to SBC members. Full money back guarantee if at any time in your first 12 months with us, you are not satisfied for any reason! Don t delay, join today by visiting Mike Bishop & Dan Jones Editors Secret Betting Club. MORE FREE BETTING ADVICE: WEEKEND WAGER Every Friday we produce a free weekly betting column - the Weekend Wager, which features betting advice and guidance from several high-quality tipsters. You can sign-up to receive this totally free by entering your address at Weekend Wager experts includes the likes of Skeeve, our resident non-league football tipster who produced a pt profit (18.4% Return on Investment) from the free bets supplied last season. Other regular Weekend Wager specialist columnists include Winabobatoo (English & Scottish Football), Mike Bishop (Premier League Football), Herbie Fogg (Horse Racing) and Birdie Golf (Golf Betting). All of these experts have a proven pedigree of making money betting and their advice is available completely free! We also have an exclusive column from Darren Hall of who supplies his best risk-free bet each weekend. Sign-up to receive the Weekend Wager column free every Friday via Page 3

4 Football Tipster Update: Who was the top football tipster last season? Before we get started with the World Cup advice, we wanted to share with you an article excerpt from our very latest newsletter (issue 49 released Monday 31 st May 2010). This sample is taken from our end-of-season report on all the football tipsters we have recommended to members during the 2009/2010 season. Please note, the service names have been removed as this is available only to full Secret Betting Club members. You are still however able to see the comparative performance of each service and just how much money you could have made following their advice. End-Of-Season Football Report With the domestic season over and the world cup around the corner, it s time to recap on the performance of the best football tipsters we track. Who was best of the best? To find out we need to take a look at what the numbers tell us. The following table is based on tipsters results from the 09/10 regular season taking advised prices and odds. Service Name Bank Size Bets Pts Profit ROI ROI+ ROC Profit from 1000 bank Profit from 2000 bank Profit from 5000 bank Service % % 1,012 2,024 5,060 Service % 12 44% ,198 Service % 15 30% ,523 Service % 67 95% 953 1,906 4,765 Service % % 1,293 2,586 6,465 Service % 13 67% 667 1,335 3,336 Service % 2 5% Service % -9-19% Some of these headings might need some explaining. ROI: This is the Return On Investment, otherwise known as Profit on Turnover. It divides the profit by the total amount staked. The more profit made from less money turning over, the bigger the ROI. ROI+: This is the ROI times the number of bets. This helps to compare tipsters who have given out a different number of bets. So a tipster who has maintained a high ROI over a bigger number of bets will be rewarded with a higher score. Page 4

5 ROC: This is the Return On Capital. This is the profits divided by the bank set aside. For example if you set aside a bank of 50 points and you make 50 points, you ve made 100% (doubled your money). This is an important metric because some services might look like they produce higher profits on paper, but would produce lower returns in realty because you would need a bigger points bank to cope with the wide swings bank etc: This shows the returns based on a 1,000 bank and the unit stakes suggested by the bank size. If you have a 1,000 to play with and the service suggests (or we suggest) a 100 point bank, you would bet 10 per point. That s 1,000 divided by 100 = 10. If the service suggested a 25 point bank you would divide your 1,000 by 25 and stake 40 per point. The reason for there being different suggested bank sizes is that some tipsters bet more than others and some vary their staking between 1-10 points. Page 5

6 WORLD CUP 2010: THE EXPERTS This World Cup 2010 special issue features contributions from six different experts from the world of football betting advice. Each expert has a proven pedigree of betting success and have been specifically chosen to supply the advice found in this special edition. As well as their own advised value bets, you will also find analysis and insight on many of the hundreds of betting markets on offer. All of this combined will help to give you every possible advantage when it comes to making money during the World Cup For each expert we have listed their specific betting advice for the tournament and provided the best odds available at the time of publishing. As the opinion of each expert is well respected and followed by many shrewd gamblers, there may well be changes in the odds on offer as the bookmakers react and try and limit their exposure on each bet. We recommend that you use an odds comparison service to look up the best prices on each selection. Two good odds comparison sites are: If you have any questions about this issue or wish to contact us, feel free to do so via info@secretbettingclub.com All that remains is to wish you a very successful and enjoyable World Cup! Page 6

7 GREG GORDON: WORLD CUP EXPERT Website address: Greg Gordon is a true expert when it comes to betting and during the football season, he operates his very own successful Scottish Football advisory service. He utilises his professional contacts, eye for betting value and inside out knowledge of the 42 teams in the Scottish league to beat the bookmaker. Each of his tips also comes with extremely detailed analysis as to why it has been selected, which is a hallmark of all Greg s work. Greg also has an in-depth knowledge of the International game and it is this combined with his own ratings system that has enabled him to provide this analysis of each team in the World Cup. They have performed well in both the 2006 World Cup Finals in Germany as well as the Euro 2008 qualifiers and finals. Their model is a combination of using the ELO rankings (as below) and also extensive notes on all the teams taking part that are refined throughout the tournament. If you would like to see a sample report on one of the teams please drop Greg a line at greg@scottishfootballbets.com and he will you one. As a special offer to all readers, he is offering a cut-price deal of 25 for anyone wishing to subscribe for the duration of the World Cup. Should you decide to take a six months or full season subscription thereafter he will subtract your 25 World Cup fee from the cost of your subscription. Please Greg at greg@scottishfootballbets.com for details/to subscribe. GREG GORDON WORLD CUP ADVICE World Cup 2010 The Antepost Market And The Effect Of The Draw If you are looking at the World Cup antepost market, hoping to find a winner then your team s potential route to the final should be uppermost in your thoughts before you have a bet. The two halves of the draw are totally separate in The World Cup Finals until they come together at the semi final stage. For the sake of brevity and common-sense, we have removed the outsiders and also rans from our reckoning here. Both history and a sense of what each side has to offer suggests we should only look at teams relatively near the top of the market for our winner. You can see a list of those teams below with their FIFA and more accurate ELO rankings* in brackets (note: bookies offer ½ the odds to reach final if considering ew). Next to the best price to win the World Cup I have included the conversion of that price as a percentage chance. When you are looking for your own winner in a betting market you should consider the runners in turn and allocate them a percentage representing what you think their real win chance is. Page 7

8 You can convert odds to percentages using the helpful table on our site: ources-percentage-to-odds-conversion-table&catid=16:betting&itemid=44 If you are serious about pricing up, and betting professionally, this table will become your best friend. You can also find an excellent World Cup desktop calendar here: Top half (groups A-D) Contenders: England (4 ELO, 8 FIFA) 13/2 (13% win chance) Germany (6 ELO, 6 FIFA) 16/1 (6% win chance) Argentina (7 ELO, 7 FIFA) 15/2 (12% win chance) 33/10 reach final 7/1 rf 4/1 rf Possibles/Outsiders: France (10 ELO, 9 FIFA) 20/1 (5% win chance) 9/1 rf Bottom Half (groups E-H) Contenders: Brazil (1 ELO, 1 FIFA) 5/1 (17% win chance) Spain (2 ELO, 2 FIFA) 17/4 (19% win chance) Holland (3 ELO, 4 FIFA) 12/1 (8% win chance) Italy (5 ELO, 5 FIFA) 14/1 (7% win chance) 5/2 rf 11/5 rf 6/1 rf 13/2 rf Possibles/Outsiders: Portugal (12 ELO, 3 FIFA) 28/1 (3% win chance) 12/1 rf Ivory Coast (30 ELO, 27 FIFA) 40/1 (2% win chance) 14/1 rf These nations above are the only teams with a realistic chance of winning. In the modern era, there have been no shock winners of the World Cup although the same can t be said for the Euro championships. There are several factors why that may be the case: - The World Cup Finals operate in a longer format lessening the likelihood of shocks. - There are a larger spread of playing styles at The World Cup means that a one dimensional outfit such as Greece have more chance of being found out against a greater variety of teams and styles. - However, in the Euros, as opposed to The World Cup, there are really no unknown quantities in terms of players. Thanks to TV and the scouting networks European teams now know each other inside out. There is still a surprise factor in certain World Cup matches although, that said, the elite sides quality tends to trump the element of surprise that the minnows offer. Page 8

9 There may be at least one shock outfit somewhere but these teams, from memory, only tend to reach the semi finals at best. So whilst dark horses are handy to identify, especially for individual match bets, they are of little use in outright betting unless you plan to trade. So if we assume that the two finalists are listed above how does this help? Well, firstly, as we can see the bookies have played things rather tight. Looking at the halves in detail: Top half: Only four teams in our book can reach the final and to be honest I would be surprised if France could do it although their record means that they cannot be totally discounted. Their coach Domenech will be the main reason they won t succeed As a coach he is probably a bigger negative even than Argentina s highly-strung Maradona. Germany most likely will face Argentina at quarter final stage followed by Spain (or at an outside Italy) in the semis. We have an internal disagreement here as half of us want to discount the Germans at this stage although personally I think their chance, as the ultimate tournament nation, is as solid as ever. England are likely to face France in the quarter finals. England would expect to beat France currently. So, it would then be a face off with Brazil in the semis or possibly an outside chance of Holland, if the Dutch keep it together. England have possibly the best draw of all the top half teams to the final. Argentina are likely to face Germany in the quarter finals followed by Spain in the semis which looks tough if, like me, you rate Germany. Otherwise, potentially it isn t so bad. Bottom Half: This is a much, much tougher proposition in my opinion. Why? - The top five FIFA ranked teams are all on this side. - Four of the top Five Elo ranked teams are in this half. - I can t remember a team outwith Europe or South America ever reaching the final and as we have an extra European team in this half of the draw it should be incrementally harder to succeed from. - Of the African sides, this half contains the most dangerous pair in Cameroon and Ivory Coast. With the bottom half s added strength in depth it is more difficult to predict who will make the quarter final stage. It seems also less likely that the shock troops will emerge from this side of the draw given the more cutthroat nature of the competition herein. Brazil would likely face Chile (last 16), Holland (quarter finals) and England (semis). Spain have it tougher with Ivory Coast (last 16), Italy (quarter finals) and Argentina/Germany in the semi finals. Whilst I respect Spain s play, that tough run makes me uninterested, or ever a possible layer, at the price. Holland have Paraguay possibly in last 16, Brazil (quarter finals) and England (semi finals). That is tricky but not impossible for any team who hits form at the right time. Momentum could be everything. Page 9

10 Italy face Cameroon/Denmark possibly in last 16, Spain (quarter finals) and Argentina/Germany in the semis. That is surely too much pressure at their price for the Azurri? Though I don t have much faith in Portugal, Ronaldo alone prevents me from totally discounting them. Still, I couldn t touch them at the prices and especially so, given they are no certainties to qualify for the knockout stage. Ivory Coast would face Spain (last 16), Italy (quarter finals), Argentina (semis). Although if Ivory Coast topped Brazil in Group G they would then follow their passage above - which would suddenly offer much more appeal. So what bets are of interest? At 5/1 Brazil each way could be a bet to nothing. Especially if, as rumoured, their homework on Spain s weaknesses is bang on. Ivory Coast could become an ew option were they to top Group G. That would set-up a run-in of Chile (last 16), Holland (quarter finals) and England (semis). If backing Ivory Coast ew, I may look to cover bet Brazil in a group winners accumulator with two other certs such as England and Holland for stake recovery on Ivory Coast. The African side s chances would be much reduced if they don t win their group, given their run in as the second-placed side. England ew would begin to look attractive if the bookies do any more 10/1 specials This set of thoughts is by no means a set in stone selection however. There is much more work to be done, and a few more twists and turns before the big kick off. I also haven t given up hope of getting a positive consensus on Germany a team I believe are underrated here. Not everyone agrees though and I will need to use all my powers of persuasion. What I would say though, is that however you bet you disregard the likely routes to the final at your peril. *About the ELO Rankings: The World Football Elo Ratings are based on the Elo rating system, developed by Dr. Arpad Elo (not to be confused with Birmingham Beatles-soundalikes ELO who racked up twenty UK hit singles in their 1970s heyday). Dr Elo s system is used by FIDE, the international chess federation, to rate chess players. In 1997 Bob Runyan adapted the Elo rating system to international football and posted the results on the Internet. He was also the first maintainer of the World Football Elo Ratings web site. The system was adapted to football by adding a weighting for the kind of match, an adjustment for the home team advantage, and an adjustment for goal difference in the match result. Page 10

11 What I particularly like about the Elo ratings are that they allow you to look at close match-ups with a view to exploiting bookmaker s price variances. Invariably, on any given card, the stats will suggest that some opponents are well matched even where the bookmakers prices suggest not. As such, these ratings are ideal for throwing up draws, low scoring games or handicap bets that favour unfashionable teams against more illustrious opponents. Page 11

12 MATT LOVE: WORLD CUP EXPERT Website address: Matt Love is the brains behind the exceptionally successful Football Elite tipster service, which has made a fine profit in every football season since starting in He focuses on finding trends based on past performances and building team profiles to help subscribers make a long-term profit. During the World Cup he will be supplying the usual high quality advice to all his subscribers, a sample of which he has kindly agreed to share in this special report. To celebrate the World Cup, Matt is also offering an extra special 3 month free trial to all newcomers. You can find out more about this at For any questions you may have, Matt can be ed via contact@football-elite.co.uk MATT LOVE WORLD CUP ADVICE The Winner I think a good starting point is to remind yourself that away from all the hype and analysis and the superb players on show, at the end of the day the World Cup is just a short format knockout tournament. Because of the format the best team very often doesn't win the World Cup and no matter how good your team is you need that one vital ingredient - luck. In 1986 the format of the World Cup changed to a knockout format once we got down to the last 16. Since then, 4 of the 6 winners (and 9 of the 12 finalists) have had to face at least one penalty shootout at some point in the competition. If you want to win the competition you have to be good, but you also have to be lucky. It'd be hard to argue that Italy were actually the best side in 2006 but they were solid, got a bit of luck at the right times and had a fairly favourable draw. Even when the best side does win an event like this they still need that bit of luck. In Euro 2008 Spain were clearly the best side in the competiton but few remember that they only beat Italy in the quarter-finals on penalties and could easily have lost that game without a bit of good fortune. It goes without saying that a good draw is a big advantage. Italy's route to the final in 2006 was Australia, Ukraine and Germany. Having said that the usual suspects have dominated the event in the last 40 years. Since England won it in 66 every single final has featured two of Brazil, Argentina, Germany, Italy, France or Holland. Pretty much every major International tournament in the last couple of decades has been won by a side coached by a proven, vastly experienced manager. Euro Aragones, W.Cup Lippi, Euro Rehhagel, Scolari, Lemerre, Jacquet etc. You have to go way back to Italia 90 and Franz Beckenbauer to find the last time a rookie coach won a major International event. Page 12

13 Now I have to admit I have no idea how representative those results are. There may well just be a lot higher number of vastly experienced coaches in the major teams coaching positions. Taking the results at face value though it does put an extra bit of doubt over the likes of Brazil (Dunga) and Argentina (Maradona) who are coached by managers with no past coaching experience. All things considered there are probably 8 or 9 sides who have enough quality that they could win it if things fall their way. I'd much rather be on the likes of Holland, Italy and Germany at the odds as all look a bit overpiced considering the draw looks to have been fairly kind to them. Conclusion Its not a market I want to get too involved in but a few small bets on the overlooked traditional powers looks worth going with. Just half a point risked on this. Recommendation 0.25pts on Holland to win the World 11.0 with Pinnacle, Ladbrokes, Canbet, Bet365, WilliamHill, Totesport, Boylesports, Coral 0.125pts on Germany to win the World 15.0 with various 0.125pts on Italy to win the World 17.0 with Pinnacle, 188bet, Ladbrokes, BlueSq, VCbet, StanJames, WillHill Other Markets I'm not a massive fan of novelty markets but one area that there looks to be an opportunity in is the total goals market. A more adventurous approach seems to be creeping back into the major leagues over the last couple of years. When the defensively solid but creatively lacking Greece won Euro 2004 followed by Italy winning the World Cup in 2006 in a similar fashion it seemed to solidify the notion that defensive football was the way to go for many of the top coaches. In the 06/07 season following that Italy win the combined goal average in the big 5 leagues (England, Spain, Italy, Germany, France) was just 2.48 goals per game. That was the lowest for any season in a long, long time. It wasn't much better the season after with a 2.53 goals per game average. The last two seasons though it has seemed like attacking football is back in fashion with an average of 2.63 goals per game in the 08/09 season and a 2.69 goals per game average in the season just gone. That is the highest average for 14 seasons. The last time the average was close to being as high as that was in the 1999/00 season when an average of 2.67 goals per game were scored. The Euro 2000 tournament that followed ended with a record gaol tally for an average of 2.75 goals per game. A 2.69 goals per game average in the 64 games in this years World Cup would translate to 172 goals. Most firms have their over/under mark at around 160 goals so there is a possible opportunity there. Worst case it will be a nice little interest bet! Page 13

14 Conclusion All firms will have slightly different markets but the general marker is around total goals. A few different markets to choose from. The best possible value at the time of writing looks to be with the "Over 159 total goals" at 1.85 with Bwin and 1.8 with Pinnacle and Sportingbet. Shop around though and go for whatever you fancy. Some firms offer around 2.25 for a 163 marker if you fancy taking a bit more of a risk. Recommendation 1pt on Over 159 total 1.85 with Bwin with Pinnacle, Sportingbet Group Bets Dont want to get too involved in antepost group bets but cant resist this one. South Africa look way overpriced to me to make progress from their group. At a current 6/1+ to win the group and 2/1 to qualify they look worth an investment to me. The host nation(s) at a World Cup almost always overachieve. As you guys know I'm a stickler for only betting on home sides and the home side in a World Cup has a massive advantage over the other 31 sides. There are numerous examples of World Cup hosts recording personal best efforts: Germany semi-finals - not really an overachievement given their past history but this was a very average German side South Korea semi-finals - probably the biggest host overachievment of them all. Looks more and more remarkable with every passing year Japan last 16 - made the knockout stages for the only time in their history France winners USA last 16 - had never come close to qualifying for the knockout stages before this Italy semi-finals - only went down to Argentina in a penalty shootout Mexico - quarter-finals - best ever world cup performance. Not made it to the quarters before or since if not a host Spain - 2nd group stages - probably the one side who didnt truly overachieve Argentina winners Germany winners Mexico q-finals - as above England winners Chile - semi-finals - best performance ever Sweden finalist - best performance ever Thats a pretty decent performance from the host sides. Probably only Spain in 82 didn't at the very least do themselves justice. While its not an easy group for South Africa (France, Mexico and Uruguay are all ranked in the FIFA top 20) I'm not sure its THAT tough either. Of all the "big" teams France are probably the most vulnerable at the moment. In the last 2 years they have played 19 games against sides in the top 100 of FIFA's rankings. They have won only 7 of those 19 (and 2 of those were Lithuania). They obviously could turn it on with the players they have but I dont think they are a side to fear. Page 14

15 There is nothing to suggest Uruguay are anything but a mediocre side. They only finished 5th in South America qualifying, winning just 6 games out of 18. They qualified by winning a playoff against Costa Rica. Mexico also had their problems qualifying. To be fair a sides record in qualifying often has no relation whatsoever on how a team performs once they are actually there but it does give a general indication that these 3 sides are far from unbeatable. I should add that the host trend was well and truly bucked at Euro 2008 when Switzerland and Austria both crashed out early so its far from a guaranteed strategy. I'm not saying South Africa are world beaters but by being at home they have a big advantage and they look too big a price to me both to qualify and to win their group. A final comforting stat is that no host side has ever failed to get out of the initial group stages. Conclusion Side with the home side in the group stages Recommendation 0.8pts on South Africa to qualify from Group 3.0 with StanJames, BlueSq, 888bet, Skybet, Totesport 0.2pts on South Africa to win Group 7.5 with 5Dimes, Pinnacle, Ladbrokes, Bwin, Bet365, Coral, Eurobet, Skybet, BlueSq, 888bet, StanJames, Bodog Page 15

16 GORAN TRPEVSKI: WORLD CUP EXPERT Website address: Goran is an ex professional footballer turned tipster who in his playing days represented Sweden as well as playing for teams such as Malmo and Apollon Athens. After retiring through injury, he has used his football contacts and insight to provide betting advice since August Since then he has made a profit in 28 out of 33 months, with a monthly average profit of over 11% return on investment. One of Goran s specialities is undoubtedly his ante-post advice and in this special issue, he shares 3 of the World Cup bets advised to his members, written in his own unique style. Goran will be very active during the World Cup and has a special membership package available of 149 euros for the whole tournament. For those of you interested in joining Goran long-term, please note that all Secret Betting Club members can save 40% off the cost of normal subscription. Make sure you sign-up for an SBC subscription to take advantage of this. GORAN TRPEVSKI WORLD CUP ADVICE Bet 1) Holland to reach the final 8 (quarter finals) Best Bookie Price: 4/6 with Paddy Power Best Betfair Price: 1.67 View Oddschecker s Latest Odds (Originally advised by Goran to his members on the 30/5/10) Bet Analysis The draw was very nice to some teams in the World Cup. Holland is one of those teams that must be very happy with the draw. Now we can all say #its the World Cup and there are no easy teams blah blah# But a serious person would not say that. Facing Brazil is not the same as facing Slovakia or Japan. Germany and England can very easy play each other in the round of 16, Brazil might play Spain in round 16 (how crazy is that?) So yes it does matter to be lucky and the draw means a lot many times. Group stage. Holland are in a group with Denmark, Japan and Cameroon. Hardly teams that will make big problems for the Oranje. Denmark have their worst generation for 20 years and are lucky to be in the World Cup, Cameroon have been a disaster in the friendly games lately, while Japan look very very lost. Holland should have no problems going through this group, winning it would be something very normal. Potential teams in the round of 16 are Italy, Slovakia and Paraguay. Most likely is that Holland face one of Slovakia or Paraguay. These are not teams that should make Robben, Sneijder,K uyt and company have sleepless Page 16

17 nights. I dont see Holland having big problems with any of these two sides. Now if Italy (or Holland) mess up in the group and maybe come second. Well then its early packing for either Holland or the World Champions from 2006 Italy. If Holland would get Italy then I would not call that a nightmare. This Holland team have enough quality to beat the Italians. Overall 1.70 prices on Holland to reach the final 8 are good. An easy ride in the group and Slovakia/Paraguay in a round 16 game doesnt look too scary either. Bet 2) Argentina to be eliminated in the semi-finals Best Bookie Price: 5/1 with Boylesports Best Betfair Price: 5.3 View Oddschecker s Latest Odds (Originally advised by Goran to his members on the 23/5/10) Bet Analysis Argentina have just like Holland have a very easy ride (compared to the other top teams) in the group phase. I am playing a dangerous game with this Argentinian squad. One thing is very clear, they were horrible in the qualification. But with these prices i just have to give it a shot. Argentina to begin with are in a ridiculous group (no mean to disrespect anyone) Argentina will walk their way through this group. And if they dont then you will hear me say #thats football# (joke) If Argentina fail in this group then heads will roll. Naaaaa that wont happen forget it, Argentina is going through this group very very easy. Next up for Argentina dont look too scary in the round of 16. If we say that France win group A (far from certain though). Then Argentina will face Uruguay, Mexico or South Africa. Hardly any teams that should give Messi and company big troubles. Argentina are big favourites against any of these teams. And if they do get France well then they still have good chances to progress. Round of 16 not hard at all for Argentina considering that England can get Germany, Spain can face Brazil and so on. The draw was very nice for Maradona be sure of that. Potential quarter final teams? Not nightmare scenario here either. Germany, England, Serbia/Ghana are potential teams that Argentina can face in a quarter final. A normal Argentina is stronger then these teams mentioned above. Not easy games dont get me wrong. But teams that will be for sure underdogs against Argentina. Semi final is another ball game for the South Americans. Potential teams they might face here are Brazil and Spain, and here Argentina come in as underdogs. Both Brazil and Spain are when I write this more serious teams and overall better teams then Page 17

18 Maradonas boys. Other teams that La Albiceleste can face in a semifinal are Portugal, Holland and Italy. Teams that are for sure good enough to beat them. To sum up. Walk their way through the group. Not too many problems if they face South Africa, Uruguay or Mexico in the round of 16, harder if they get France. Quarter final against Germany dosent scare me. England however suit Argentina very bad and all this bulls**t with the Falkland wars come into play and emotions go crazy. It will take two seconds before The Sun will have a picture of #hand of god# while in Argentina they will probably have pictures of dead Argentine soldiers in the newspapers. Really sad stuff and unfortunately the players get carried away. I see England making life difficult for Argentina in a potential quarter final yes, but I like my chances overall here. Serbia with Vidic, Ivanovic and Stankovic with all due respect i dont see it. Ghana?? naaaaaa not really So you see the road for Argentina to the semis is hardly a nightmare. But in a semi-final as I explained it becomes a lot harder, Spain or Brazil will go in as the favourites thats for sure against Argentina. I take my chances here and invest that Argentina lose in a semi-final. Bet 3) No Hat-trick in the World Cup Best Bookie Price: 11/4 with Stan James Best Betfair Price: 4.2 View Oddschecker s Latest Odds (Originally advised by Goran to his members on the 30/5/10, when the price was 4.8 on Betfair, since then the odds have shortened) Bet Analysis Hatrick in the World Cup I would normally say yes but not with these prices offered. The value sure goes with no here and that s where I will invest. I gave this bet to my members some days ago and it seems the prices have dropped a lot since then. Prices around 5.00 could be found for NO hatrick in the World Cup before. Now the best we can find are maybe 4.00 at the bookies while the exchanges have around prices. Its not the 1950s any more where you get scores like 9-0 or All teams know how to defend now. Some defend good, some defend better and some defend great. Three goals from the same player in a World Cup on 1.30 prices is wrong. I have my worries that Rooney can score three in Englands joke group (no disrepect). Villa can also grab many goals in Spain s not too tough group. We have North Korea that will concede some goals in that Ivory/Brazil/Portugal group. Page 18

19 A hat-trick wont be scored as easy as the prices suggest though. Its not the whole tournament that this bet is really #open#. Group D for example is dead, no hatrick will be scored here. Group A the same, forget it. What about the knock out stages, same story as no hatrick will be scored here. Worries are just in some games and I am fine with that, especially with prices like this. In modern football its hard to score three goals in a training session never mind a World Cup. Page 19

20 MATT NESBITT: WORLD CUP EXPERT Website address: Matt Nesbitt is the driving force behind football advice services FootballBettingData.co.uk and ChampionsLeagueBet.co.uk. Matt also provides stats-based spread betting advice for The Guardian, and will make-up the panel of experts - alongside Dutch legend Ruud Gullit and Sky TV's Charlotte Jackson - on Budweiser's World Cup 'Predict and Win' competition this summer ( South Africa 2010 will be Matt's third World Cup providing betting advice, following successful book and web-based services in 2002 and Matt s World Cup Profit Service includes a website packed with data for all 32 teams and Head-2-Head stats for all 64 games in South Africa this summer covering everything from Scorers, Match Results and Correct Scores to Goals, Corners and Booking Points giving members an at-a-glance guide to the best bets for every game. He ll also be sending updates covering every game, with at least 70 bets expected throughout the tournament. Special Offer Matt is inviting Secret Betting Club members to put his World Cup service to test, with a 33% discount off the publisher s price AND a money-back guarantee that covers the entire Group stage. That s 48 games! Click here to find out more Here s Matt with a look at what the stats say about the World Cup 2010 Top Goalscorer market MATT NESBITT WORLD CUP ADVICE Top Goalscorer betting I ll start with a couple of points to consider before looking at the stats on the World Cup 2010 Top Goalscorer or Golden Boot market. The first is, how many goals is a player likely to need to score? Well, the Golden Boot winner in the past 3 World Cups since the current 32- team, 64-game format was introduced has scored at least 5 goals Secondly, regardless of a player s goal-scoring history, we need to think about his team s chances in the World Cup and how many games he is likely to play. The last 3 Golden Boot winners all played for teams that made it to at least the Semi-Finals. I ve looked at the stats for all the favourites, as well as the players that stand out for every team and narrowed my short list down to 2 players in particular to watch this summer David Villa 9/1 Each Way David Villa is the bookies favourite to take home the Golden Boot. He s Spain s 2 nd highest goal scorer of all time behind Raul, with 36 goals in 55 games. Villa was the top tournament scorer with 4 goals when Spain won the European Championships in He was also Spain s Top Scorer in World Cup 2010 Qualifying finishing on 8 goals. He scored 21 goals in 32 appearances for Valencia in Spain s La Liga this season. Page 20

21 As well as his excellent scoring record, Villa s team are also the favourites to win this summer Spain are 4/1 to lift the World Cup. Spain went all the way in the 2008 European Championships (with Villa the Top Scorer), and he could potentially play 7 games at South Africa Villa is 9/1 with most bookies to be World Cup Top Goalscorer. Skybet, Betfred, Blue Square and 888 Sport all offer Villa at 9/1 and have the best Each Way terms of 5 places for 1/4 odds that s a 9/4 payout if Villa comes in the top 5 scorers. Miroslav Klose 33/1 Each Way Miroslave Klose s International record is immense he was the Top Scorer at the last World Cup in 2006 with 5 goals, and he also hit 5 goals at the 2002 World Cup. In 2010 Qualifying, he continued his World Cup love affair with an impressive 7 goals in 8 games. Klose is an appealing long-shot he s a proven World Cup scorer, and Germany reached the World Cup Final in 2002, the Semi-Finals in 2006 and also the Final in the 2008 European Championships. They will expect to Qualify from their 2010 Group that includes Australia, Serbia and Ghana and at 33/1 Klose looks excellent value Klose is 33/1 to be World Cup Top Goalscorer with William Hill and Stan James. Each Way terms of 4 places for 1/4 odds would give you a payout of over 8/1 if he comes in the top 4 scorers. Klose is 28/1 with Skybet, where the enhanced Each Way terms would give you a 7/1 payout if he comes in the top 5 scorers. Yours in Sport, Matt Nesbitt Page 21

22 SPORTS INVESTOR: WORLD CUP EXPERT Website address: Sports-Investor is a sports handicapping service that focuses on some of Europe s biggest football leagues. The service is a culmination of a skill set developed over more than a decade. The markets used offer theoretical advantages over conventional fixed odds betting and increase the likelihood of profitability. Sports-Investor combines a deep-rooted understanding of markets, a robust statistical framework and an understanding of the processes that determine the odds, with the subjective elements of football that markets struggle to price-in. This unique approach to analyzing value has enabled Sports-Investor to uncover value from some of Europe s biggest leagues on a consistent basis, for the last few years. Covering the big leagues means that on average, odds movements are relatively small and the service is practical to follow. Additionally, it allows users to watch a fair share of selections live on the television and the service certainly combines the main aim of profitability with an enjoyable betting experience. This is a service that takes pride in turning its customers into better gamblers and better investors. For more details you can contact them at support@sports-investor.net SPORTS INVESTOR WORLD CUP ADVICE OUR APPROACH Handicapping an event like the World Cup is a bit different from capping league games. The league tends to maintain an overall structure, despite subtle differences from one season to the next. For instance, home wins in the EPL tend to hover around their long-term average, you tend to have 4 or 5 sides that are very, very good at home and promoted sides seldom do well away from home. The numbers performance numbers and historical records tend to be particularly important in capping a league game. Historical data isn t everything when it comes to an event such as the World Cup. How a Germany side featuring Neuville, Kahn, Frings, Ramelow, Schneider and Beirhoff performed, isn t particularly relevant to considering the current German side. Our belief on markets in general is that numbers are best used to provide the right context for the subjective elements at work. Given the nature of world cups, the direction we ll be looking in is perhaps a bit different. Early in the tournament, we ll be looking at fundamental quality. The use of historical data will be limited to more recent results, while broader world-cup trends will provide supplementary data aimed at outlining the context of a fixture. Overall figures over the last 4 World Cups for wins by 3 or more goals may provide the context for a very big line, where the fundamentals justify the line, for instance. As we approach the knockout stages, we ll be keeping a particularly close eye on teams featuring individuals willing to take responsibility. In 2006, for instance, we turned extremely bullish on France based primarily on Zidane s form as the tournament progressed. More than anything, World Cup s are about quality. You do see the odd game where Trinidad and Tobago hold out for a 0-0 draw against Sweden, but the norm tends to be that genuine quality prevails. Needless to say, the spread captures most fundamentals fairly well but, as Page 22

23 with any market you do get situations where the market doesn t fully appreciate finer elements. Our approach will focus on subjective elements on keeping a very close eye on performance, tactics, confidence levels, fitness, leadership qualities and fighting spirit. We re never scared to delve deep into a fixture to find an edge, and the same underlying philosophy that has guided us over the last 4 years will continue to be the base off which we work over the 64 World Cup fixtures. THE TOP-8 The following is a table briefly summarizing our initial views on the top-8 sides in this year s competition. These are merely initial impressions, and our views will almost certainly change over the course of the next 4 weeks. TEAM NAME SPAIN ODDS 5.3 STRENGTHS QUALITY, PASSING ABILITY, STRENGTH-IN-DEPTH WEAKNESSES ABILITY TO COPE WITH PRESSURE IS QUESTIONABLE OUR VIEW NEUTRAL TEAM NAME BRAZIL ODDS 5.9 STRENGTHS CREATIVITY, SHOOTING ABILITY, PASSING, CONFIDENCE WEAKNESSES CENTRAL MIDFIELD, WIDE LEFT OUR VIEW MILDLY BEARISH TEAM NAME ARGENTINA ODDS 8.2 STRENGTHS FLAIR, ATTACKING ABILITY, INDIVIDUAL QUALITY WEAKNESSES DEFENSE, TACTICAL AWARENESS OUR VIEW MILDLY BULLISH TEAM NAME ENGLAND ODDS 8.6 STRENGTHS ORGANIZATION, MIDFIELD, WORK-RATE, PHYSICAL STRENGTH WEAKNESSES WIDE LEFT, FEW FLAIR PLAYERS, GOALKEEPING OUR VIEW NEUTRAL TEAM NAME NETHERLANDS ODDS 11.5 STRENGTHS PASSING ABILITY, FLAIR, PACE WEAKNESSES DEFENSIVE ABILITY, GOALKEEPING OUR VIEW BULLISH TEAM NAME GERMANY ODDS 15.5 STRENGTHS CONFIDENCE, PACE, ORGANIZATION WEAKNESSES LACK OF LEADERS, FLAIR, LIMITED COLLECTIVE EXPERIENCE OUR VIEW BEARISH TEAM NAME ITALY ODDS 17.5 STRENGTHS ORGANIZATION, COLLECTIVE EXPERIENCE, CONFIDENCE Page 23

24 WEAKNESSES OUR VIEW LACK OF FLAIR, AGING SQUAD NEUTRAL TEAM NAME FRANCE ODDS 23 STRENGTHS WIDE PLAYERS, COLLECTIVE EXPERIENCE WEAKNESSES LACK OF LEADERS, MOTIVATION LEVELS QUESTIONABLE, FORM OUR VIEW NEUTRAL THE OUTSIDERS Other than the 8-sides above, we do believe Portugal have a bit more ability than the markets are willing to recognize. We don t think any of the African sides have a particularly good shot at winning the competition, but we are bullish on Cameroon qualifying for the knockout stage, for example. Many micro-views will of course take shape during the competition itself. PRE-TOURNAMENT ADVICE TEAM SPECIALS: SPAIN: GROUP STAGES: at BETFAIR Spain have made a habit of maintaining a perfect record during the group stages: having done so at the World Cup in 2006 and Euro Given the degree of squad depth they possess, Spain usually win that third group stage game irrespective of whether they need a win. In a group with Switzerland, Hondurus and Chile, Spain will be looking to record 3 Ws. The first fixture against Switzerland will see Spain tested against a well organized side, but Spain certainly have the ability to break resolute defenses down. With little in the way of pace up top, Spain should maintain a high-line and coast to victory. Next up, the European champions take on Honduras, who simply don t have the quality to compete with the Spanish. The final fixture will see Spain take on Chile in what will be the trickiest of the three. If Spain have won their opening 2 fixtures, they may rest one or two players. However, given the squad strength we re likely to see a performance from players looking to force their way into the 11. Spain s strength in depth isn t fully discounted at a price above evens, here. Pressure may play it s part and that is the most likely obstacle between Spain and a perfect group-stage record. However, we would price this closer to 2.06, so there is a bit of value in getting involved on Spain winning all three group fixtures. NOTE The above analysis forms part of the regular advice we share with members on possible value in the markets. This piece falls marginally short of our value parameters, once you account for the standard Betfair commission. Consequently, the above analysis will not appear on our historical record. Indeed, we regularly offer members analytical pieces that fall marginally short of our criteria for a selection, allowing them to make an informed decision on whether they choose to get involved. This analysis and our on demand service, where members write in to us asking for views on a particular fixture have been profitable over the long-run. This is one of the ways in which, we offer considerable value for money at Sports-Investor. A FINAL BIT OF ADVICE Page 24