Targeting and Internet Advertising. Avi Goldfarb, University of Toronto (Based on work with Catherine Tucker, MIT-Sloan)

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1 Targeting and Internet Advertising Avi Goldfarb, University of Toronto (Based on work with Catherine Tucker, MIT-Sloan) 1

2 Internet advertising Search engine advertising $10 billion in 2009 Typically sold by cost-per-click ( CPC ) Usually sold via an auction The CPC auction mechanism was originally developed by Goto.com/Overture but was refined substantially by Google, Yahoo, Microsoft, and others Most ads are posted on the main search engines Format is fairly standard text-only Display advertising $8 billion in 2009 Typically sold by cost-per-thousand ( CPM ), though hybrid CPC/CPM pricing is increasingly common Sold through auction and through sales forces Ads are posted on a variety of online media, large and small Format varies from small to large, text to multimedia, etc. 2

3 Search Engine Advertising 3

4 Online Display Advertising: Targeted 4

5 Online Display Advertising: Obtrusive 5

6 The Economics of Internet Advertising A large and growing literature Much of it has focused on auction design (Athey & Ellison; Varian; Edelman, Ostrovsky, & Schwarz, etc.) There are several other interesting issues that are beginning to see some attention: Pricing in two sided markets Competition between online and offline media Privacy Targeting 6

7 Two papers (co-authored with Catherine Tucker) Search Engine Advertising: Pricing Ads to Context Examines the prices of search engine ads Focuses on targeting and substitution between online and offline ad media Online Display Advertising: Targeting & Obtrusiveness Examines when display advertising works Focuses on targeted ads and obtrusive ads 7

8 Themes 1. Targeting is a core benefit of online advertising 2. For search engine advertising, targeting is relatively easy because potential customers reveal what they are looking for The value of the advertising goes up as the ads become more targeted 3. For display advertising, targeting can be more challenging. The effectiveness of the advertising generally rises with targeting But there is an exception targeting becomes ineffective (or worse) when ads are obtrusive 8

9 Search Engine Advertising: Pricing Ads to Context 9

10 Setting: Personal Injury Law 10

11 Pricing of Search Engine Ads 11

12 Data: Estimated Prices for 139 keywords in 195 local markets Keyword City Cost Per Click-Mid Point Search Volume Bankruptcy Attorney Baton Rouge Birth Injury Attorney Baton Rouge Brain Injury Attorney Baton Rouge Car Accident Attorney Baton Rouge Child Support Attorney Baton Rouge Contract Attorney Baton Rouge Custody Attorney Baton Rouge Divorce Attorney Baton Rouge

13 Empirical Strategy There is state-level variation in ambulance-chaser regulation 15 states allow no direct communication in the aftermath of an accident resulting in personal injury or wrongful death We compare states with regulation and without We compare personal injury vs non-personal injury words in states with regulation and without Difference-in-difference : We compare the premium for personal injury words relative to other words in states with the regulation and states without Cost Per Click kl = β (Ambulance chasing word k ) X (Solicitation restricted l ) + keyword k + location l + Controls kl + e kl 13

14 Result 1: Keywords cost more when there is regulation This result is robust to a variety of alternative specifications and the inclusion of many controls 14

15 Result 2: Falsification Check 15

16 Result 3: Substitution is strongest when targeting matters most 16

17 Result 3: Substitution is strongest when targeting matters most 17

18 Search Engine Advertising Companies bid more for search engine ads when they are restricted from reaching clients offline When targeting is important (e.g. because the number of potential customers is small), we see that search engine ad prices are particularly responsive to the availability of offline marketing channels 18

19 Online Display Advertising: Targeting and Obtrusiveness 19

20 (When) can banner ads work? Customers actively avoid looking at online banner advertisements (Dreze and Hussherr 2003). Response rates have fallen dramatically over time (Hollis 2005). In reaction to this, online display advertising has developed along two strikingly distinct paths 1. Much of the online display advertising market applies many visual and audio features that make ads harder to ignore 2. Google s AdSense generates substantial revenue by displaying plain content-targeted text ads on affiliate websites 20

21 Setting This paper explores how well these divergent strategies work for online advertising, separately and together It then explores how consumer perceptions of intrusiveness and privacy influence these results We use data from a randomized field experiment on 2,892 distinct web advertising campaigns. For each campaign, 852 respondents were surveyed Half had seen the advertisement Half had not seen the advertisement but had otherwise similar clickstreams on the same website These campaigns advertised a large variety of distinct products, and were run on many different websites. 21

22 Methodology 22

23 Types of Ads We emphasize two core features of the ads: 1. Some campaigns matched the product to the website content E.g. car ads on automotive websites 2. Some campaigns were designed to be highly visible E.g. video or taking over the full website page 23

24 Main Findings Matching ad content to website content increases stated purchase intent Increasing ad visibility increases purchase intent. Surprisingly, combining them nullifies the positive effect that each strategy has independently. Not about recall: Contextually-targeted ads are recalled less, while highly visible ads are recalled more. Seems related to obtrusiveness and privacy: Negation strong for people who refused to provide their income Negation strong on privacy-sensitive categories 24

25 Data and Empirical Strategy We use a large database of surveys collected by a media measurement agency to examine the effectiveness of different ad campaigns. Randomized exposed and control allocation. Individuals browsing the website where the campaign is running are either exposed to the ads, or not, based on the randomized operation of the ad server. Both exposed and non-exposed (control) respondents are recruited via an online survey invitation that appears after they have finished browsing the website. We focus on how exposure to an ad affects stated purchased intention We estimate a linear probability model: 25

26 Result 1: Contextual targeting works 26

27 Result 2: Obtrusive ads work 27

28 Result 3: Targeted, obtrusive ads do not work! This result is robust to a variety of alternative specifications 28

29 Why don t they work in combination? 29

30 Result 4: It is not about recall Targeted ads have low recall 30

31 Result 5: It seems related to privacy 31

32 Result 5: It seems related to privacy 32

33 Implications Managers Generally useful to know that targeting and visibility work well separately but not together. Suggest a role for privacy concerns in models that optimize advertising content in data-rich environments (e.g. Kempe and Wilbur 2009) Emphasize importance of controls for ad features and placement in empirical models of ad success Google s AdSense and the nature of internet ad market Our results help explain the unexpected success of plain inobtrusive highly targeted ads Increasing the visibility of these ads may be counterproductive Government Policy: Behavioral Targeting Government policy makers are under increasing pressure to regulate online data use Because targeted ads are better if not highly visible, our results suggest an unintended consequence of such a ban may be to reduce the prevalence of non-intrusive advertising. 33

34 Conclusions 34

35 Two papers on online advertising 1. Targeting is a core benefit of online advertising 2. For search engine advertising, targeting is relatively easy because potential customers reveal what they are looking for The value of the advertising goes up as the ads become more targeted Online ads substitute for offline ads Targeting is most valuable in the absence of channel competition Informs our understanding of the relationship between targeting and prices in equilibrium (as in Athey & Gans 2010 and Bergemann & Bonatti 2009) 3. For display advertising, targeting can be more challenging. The effectiveness of the advertising generally rises with targeting But there is an exception targeting becomes ineffective (or worse) when ads are obtrusive Suggestive that regulations on targeting may increase the obtrusiveness of advertising in the future Also provides an explanation for the bifurcation of internet display ad markets between plain inobtrusive highly targeted ads (like AdSense) and obtrusive multimedia das 35

36 Thank you! 36

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