International Conference THE EURO DEBT CRISIS: CONSEQUENCES FOR THE GLOBAL ECONOMY AND IMPLICATIONS FOR EMERGING COUNTRIES

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1 7A Da An Plaza East Tower Yan An Zhong Lu Shanghai / PR China Tel.: Fax: Tianlin Road Shanghai / PR China Tel.: Fax: International Conference THE EURO DEBT CRISIS: CONSEQUENCES FOR THE GLOBAL ECONOMY AND IMPLICATIONS FOR EMERGING COUNTRIES Shanghai, January 2013 Venue: SIIS The Euro debt crisis that followed in the footsteps of the global financial crisis and has been lingering on ever since seems to enter in a new and decisive phase. Either, conflicts and contradictions in the European Economic and Monetary Union will come to a head, leading to a break-up of the Eurozone in its current form. This would almost inevitably trigger a deep financial and economic crisis in Europe plunging the world economy into yet another deep and, this time, most likely protracted recession. Or, Eurozone members finally manage to overcome their contradictions and come up with a comprehensive and credible compact which, first, effectively stops market panic that had interest rates for government debt of GIPSI countries (Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain, Italy) going through the roof and, second, provides for a plausible path back to international competitiveness for all those Eurozone countries that have to drastically reduce their debt and deficit levels. 1

2 There are still huge controversies and debates going on in and between Eurozone countries on both the root causes of the sovereign debt crisis (e.g. the relative contributions of alleged fiscal irresponsibility of governments, of costly bank bail-outs and fiscal stimulus measures in the financial crisis, as well as of grave design flaws of the monetary union) and the appropriate therapy for overcoming it. Whether current crisis management that put the whole burden of adjustment onto the crisis (deficit) countries in a context of deflationary austerity can work economically and at what human and political cost, is hotly contested, as is, on the other hand, the call for some form of debt mutualization (e.g. Eurobonds) to counter speculation and calm nervous financial markets, or the need for the European Central Bank (ECB), to play the role of a lender of last resort, given its much more restricted mandate. One of the lessons of this crisis on which at least most European leaders seem to agree is that monetary integration without fiscal and financial integration (fiscal union, banking union) does not work. However, the necessary further integration, especially in fiscal policy, would imply a considerable loss of sovereignty for member countries. Bold steps towards a political union would be needed for which the polity in many countries may not be prepared as yet. As a result of the weight Europe, the European single market and the Euro have for the global economy, the Euro debt crisis and the uncertainties surrounding its resolution are of great significance for the short and medium-term economic outlook for the global economy as a whole, and export-oriented emerging countries in particular. Already the current slow-down of economic activity and upcoming recession in the Eurozone triggered by the severe austerity measures in the southern European crisis countries is impacting negatively on the global economic outlook. The international community has every interest in putting pressure on European governments to resolve this crisis speedily and effectively. Given their interest in a stable and growing global economic environment, emerging countries, BRICS in particular, must consider what role they might have to play in supporting the resolution of the Euro debt crisis, both multilaterally (e.g. through macroeconomic coordination within the G20, strengthening the possibilities of the IMF) and bilaterally with partners in the EU. On the other hand emerging countries must also prepare to cope with the possible economic fallout of a deepening crisis scenario in Europe and make plans of limiting its contagion effects both individually and collectively, e.g. through enhanced South-South cooperation. The SIIS/FES conference seeks to shed some light on the current situation in Europe, providing a deeper understanding of the dynamics of the Euro debt crisis, discuss the implications of different scenarios into which the crisis might develop both in terms of possible concerted global action to crisis resolution as well as in terms of limiting contagion and coping with the economic fallout of an ongoing crisis at current levels, or even an aggravation of the situation in the worst-case scenario of an erosion of the Eurozone. 2

3 DRAFT PROGRAMME Sunday, 20 January 2013 Arrival Day All day Arrival of participants 18:15 Pls. meet in the Hotel Lobby for departure to restaurant 19:00 Informal welcome dinner for speakers and invited guests Venue: Oriental Pearl Sky Revolving Restaurant opposite the Bund (House1, Century Avenue, The Oriental Pearl TV Tower, Pudong New Area) Monday, 21 January 2013 Day One 08:15 Pls. meet in the Hotel Lobby for departure to conference venue 09:00-09:30 Opening Session Moderator: CHEN Dongxiao, Vice President, SIIS Welcome by Prof. Dr. YANG Jiemian, President, SIIS Welcome by Catrina SCHLÄGER, Resident Director, FES Shanghai Opening Remarks by Mr. Hu Zhaoming, Deputy Director, Department of European Affairs, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of PRC (tbc) 09:30-10:30 Session I: Assessing the current situation Moderator: CHEN Dongxiao, Vice President, SIIS Solving the Euro Crisis: Root causes, policy responses and current policy outcomes Sony KAPOOR, Managing Director, Re-Define, Visiting Fellow European Institute, London School of Economics Solving the Euro Crisis: Its importance for the global economy and what the world expects from Europe Prof. FENG Zhongping, Vice President, China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations (tbc) 10:30-10:50 Group Photo and Tea/coffee break 3

4 Monday, 21 January 2013 Day One (continued) 10:50-12:00 Session II: The future is uncertain - Mapping future scenarios for the Eurozone Moderator: Hubert René SCHILLINGER, Coordinator, Dialogue on Globalization, Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung Prof. Maria João RODRIGUES, Professor of European Economic Policies at the Université Libre de Bruxelles, Policy Adviser to the European Union on European Economic Policies Prof. XU Mingqi, Deputy Director, Institute of World Economy, Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences 12:00-13:30 Lunch Break 13:30-15:00 Session III: Views from Inside What policies to overcome the Euro debt crisis? Moderator: Prof. Ye Jiang, Director, Department of Global Governance, SIIS Austerity or growth? Making the case for a non-deflationary path to rebalancing within the Eurozone Dr. Michael DAUDERSTÄDT, Director, Department of Economic & Social Policy, Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung, Germany Policy options to redress the debt crisis in the Eurozone Prof. Antoni CASTELLS, Director, EuropeG, Professor of Public Finance at the University of Barcelona, Spain Political and institutional reforms to stabilize the Eurozone Dr. Carsten SIELING, Member of the German Bundestag, Member of the Finance Committee, Germany (tbc) 15:00-15:15 Tea/Coffee Break 4

5 Monday, 21 January 2013 Day One (continued) 15:15-17:00 Session IV: Views from Outside Perceptions of the Euro debt crisis and its impact on the global economy Moderator: CUI Hongjian, Department of Europe Studies, Chinese Institute of International Studies The Euro debt crisis and the global economy An overview Dr. Yılmaz AKYÜZ, Chief Economist, South Centre, Geneva A US perspective on the Euro debt crisis Douglas J. ELLIOTT, Fellow, Economic Studies, Brookings Institution, USA A Chinese perspective on the Euro debt crisis Prof. YUAN Gangming, Center for China in the World Economy, Tsinghua University 16:15-16:30 Tea/Coffee Break An Asian perspective on the Euro debt crisis Prof. PARK Sung-Hoon, Dean, Korea University Division of International Studies, Korea A Latin American Perspective on the Euro debt crisis Luciana Acioly DA SILVA, Director of Studies, Director of International Economic Relations and International Policies, IPEA - Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada, Brazil 17:30 End of Day One 18:00 Reception Dinner 5

6 Tuesday, 22 January 2013 Day Two 08:15 Pls. meet in the Hotel Lobby for departure to conference venue 09:00-9:45 Recap Session: The Euro debt crisis where do we stand? Moderator: NN Dr. XUE Lei, Institute of World Economy Studies, SIIS China s economic performance under the background of Euro debt crisis Prof. WEI Sen, School of Economics, Fudan University, Shanghai 09:45-10:45 Session V: International cooperation in the face of the Euro debt crisis Moderator: Dr. Sebastian BERSICK, School of International Relations and Public Affairs (SIRPA), Fudan University, Shanghai Global economic cooperation in the face of the Euro debt crisis Scope and limitations Jean-Luc SCHNEIDER, Deputy Director, Policy Studies Branch, Economics Department, OECD, Paris China s role in international cooperation (tbc) Prof. DING Chun, Director, Center of European Studies, Fudan University How emerging market economies can be part of the solution in the sovereign debt crisis A European perspective Moreno BERTOLDI, Head of Unit G-20 and IMF, Directorate General for Economic and Financial Affairs, Brussels 10:45-11:00 Tea/Coffee Break 6

7 Tuesday, 22 January 2013 Day Two (continued) China- EU cooperation in solving the Euro Debt Crisis Prof. WANG Haifeng, Director of Department of International Economy of the Institute of International Economic Research, National Development & Reform Commission, China. Improving south-south cooperation to mitigate the effects of the Euro debt crisis on emerging economies Joseph GEORGE, Policy Analyst, CUTS International, India General Discussion 12:00-12:30 Closing Session Moderator: Catrina SCHLÄGER, Resident Director, FES Shanghai Closing remarks by Hubert René SCHILLINGER, Coordinator, Dialogue on Globalization, Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung Closing remarks by CHEN DongXiao, Vice President, SIIS 12:30-13:30 Lunch 13:30-17:00 Excursion for participants 7

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