The Effects of Scottish Independence on Northern Ireland: Fiscal Issues

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1 The Effects of Scottish Independence on Northern Ireland: Fiscal Issues David Bell Stirling Management School University of @UKScotland esrcscotecon.com

2 OUTLINE Context Fiscal Issues for Scotland Taxation North Sea Oil Corporation Tax Spending Welfare Debt Implications for Northern Ireland - Yes or No

3 Should Scotland be an independent country? Referendum Date: 18 th September 2014

4 The Polling Evidence

5 The economy is critical to the debate BBC Website

6 Percent How important are the following factors in deciding how you are going to vote How the Scottish economy will fare YouGov Poll n = 2037

7 Scotland s Current and Prospective Economic Powers Taxation Council tax (property tax) Business Rates From April 2015 Stamp Duty Land Tax Landfill Tax From April 2016 Scottish Rate of Income Tax Spending Health Education Transport Local Government Environment Borrowing From April bn capital borrowing power Additional borrowing to cover tax yield volatility

8 Economic issues in the debate Focus has been on stabilisation and particularly the fiscal balance This debate is now new: Some Scottish nobility petitioned Westminster to wipe out the Scottish national debt and stabilise the currency. (The effect of the Darien Scheme in precipitating the 1707 Act of Union) Growth? The Purpose of the Scottish Government is to make Scotland a more successful country, with opportunities for all to flourish, through increasing sustainable economic growth.

9 Fiscal Deficit - Percent of GDP 1980/ / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /12 Scotland and UK Historic Fiscal Balance 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Scotland UK -5% -10% -15%

10 Scotland s Tax Revenues

11 2011/12 Scotland Total revenue = 56bn of which: North Sea Oil = 10.5bn

12 What about North Sea Oil? Scotland s geographical share UK Oil Revenue = 11,250m in 2011/12 Aggregate UK revenue from 1980/81 = 177,096m

13 Billions of barrels of oil equivalent Oil and Gas production and reserves Cumulative Production Lower level of ultimately recoverable reserves Upper level of ultimately recoverable reserves 0

14 Intentions for Corporation Tax This Government plans to set out a timescale for reducing corporation tax by up to three percentage points below the prevailing UK rate. Modelling suggests that such a cut could increase the level of output by 1.4 per cent, boost overall employment in Scotland by 1.1 per cent (equivalent to 27,000 jobs) and raise overall investment in the Scottish economy by 1.9 per cent after 20 years White Paper December 2013

15 UK Corporation Tax Rates in Long-Run Decline UK Corporation Tax Rates Source: IFS/ HMRC 60% 50% Standard rate Small companies rate 40% 30% 20% 10% Republic of Ireland 0%

16 Corporation Tax the amount of revenue raised from UK corporation tax has remained relatively constant over the last three decades at approximately 3.5% of GDP and 9.5% of total tax revenues. changing nature of the tax - e.g. reduced allowances for capital expenditure significant differences between the corporation tax systems in the UK and the Republic

17 What is the revenue spent on? Health Transport Education Defence

18 2011/12 Total spending = 64bn Spend per head in Scotland = 10,088 Spend per head in UK = 8,745 Fiscal Deficit = 7.6bn = 5% of GDP UK Deficit = 7.9 % of GDP

19 Fiscal Rules in an Independent Scotland A newly independent government of Scotland without an established reputation among creditors would be likely to reap significant rewards from putting in place fiscal rules and an independent fiscal council that could reassure potential investors that the Scottish government was committed to prudent management of the public finances. Institute for Fiscal Studies (Nov 2013) Would cutting Corporation Tax be credible?

20 Public debt in the event of independence

21 Market Reaction to Scottish Debt Scotland - new borrower no credit history therefore low credibility Could credibility be established by setting very tight fiscal rules? Smaller debt market than UK therefore liquidity premium How is existing debt retired and new debt issued? Sell future oil revenues to ruk to reduce current debt? ruk larger economy better able to deal with risks associated with oil revenue volatility.

22 Scottish Referendum 18 th Sep 2014 Should Scotland be an independent country? Yes UK Government No Negotiation UN Set up institutions High tax, high spend? Fiscal council Low tax, low spend? EU NATO Central Bank? Trade Borders Regulation More fiscal powers? End of Barnett? EU Elections UK Elections Scottish Elections Political reaction England Wales Northern Ireland

23 Barnett - spending in NI falling more rapidly than Scotland or Wales

24 driven largely by declining spend on public order and safety

25

26 A Symmetric Federal Settlement for UK as a whole? Not until English regions show greater interest in self-governance Implies Treasury moved from its pre-eminent position Would it be more stable?

27 Overall effects for Northern Ireland Depend on outcome of negotiations (how would NI be represented?) Trade Movement Competitiveness Position within UK

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