The German Election Campaign in Times of Crisis

Transcription

1 The German Election Campaign in Times of Crisis Rüdiger Schmitt-Beck 2013 EUDO Dissemination Conference Elections in Times of Crisis European University Institute, November, 2013

2 Germany 2013: A thriving economy Source: Starke (2013) Source: Starke (2013)

3

4

5 And the Euro crisis? Downplayed as campaign theme (Established) parties election manifestos indicate differences on solidity solidarity dimension: Government parties (FDP > CDU/CSU): carry on as before (help to indebted countries, but only conditional on reforms; no debt union ) Opposition parties (SPD < Greens < Left): stronger emphasis on solidarity, calling for relaxation of austerity measures in indebted states Leaves blank spot: opposition to help for indebted Euro countries (and Euro itself)! Filled by

6 A new party entering the game Founded Feb as anti-euro party, neither left nor right (but advances made from the right) Leadership of bourgeois respectability: professors of economics, conservative journalists, businessmen/women, well-known former CDU members Core issue: dissolution of Euro zone, return to national currencies; but also: flat tax, stop to unordered immigration into German welfare system Well-financed campaign, due to significant donations

7 The voters view: perceptions of economy at federal elections 2013, 2009, Personal economic situation rather good rather bad General economic situation rather good rather bad Sources: RCS Election study 2005, GLES 2009 and 2013

8 The voters view: most important problems, July September 2013 Most important problem Most or second most (%) important problem (%) Social welfare / justice Euro crisis Labor market Education Economy general Energy Family / child care NSA / data protection Immigration Source: GLES 2013

9 The voters view: fear of European debt crisis? 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Very much Much Moderate Little None at all Source: GLES 2013

10 The voters view: positions on issues (socio-economic, libertarian, EU solidarity) Reduce income diffs Immigrants should adapt Help indebted EU members Source: GLES 2013

11 Winners and losers at the 2013 election

12 Party voters decision making (% having preferred party eventually voted for already during campaign) CDU/CSU SPD FDP Greens Left AfD July August Sept 1-11 Sept Source: GLES 2013

13 Modeling vote choices: CDU/CSU Source: GLES 2013

14 Modeling vote choices: AfD Source: GLES 2013

15 Conclusion Economic situation very favorable CDU/CSU rewarded at the polls Euro crisis dethematized by most parties campaigns, but nonetheless salient and worrisome for numerous voters. Many voters more strongly opposed to Euro help than all established parties. AfD capitalized on Euro concerns and anti-euro sentiments, but its immigration-critical positions were crucial for success. Good prospects for AfD at European election! Will it turn into a populist party?

16 Thank you very much!

17 Ändern der Fußzeile in Master-Seite 12. Dezember 2013

18 What s behind voters economic perceptions and attitudes? Ego / current Perceptions of economy Socio / current Socio / retro Socio / pro Fear of Euro crisis Euro crisis = MIP Help for EU countries West German Male Age Education Worker New middle class + + Unemployed Pensioner ++ Trade union - - Left - right Newspapers TV news Source: GLES 2013

19 The voters view: problem solving capacity CDU/CSU SPD FDP Greens Left AfD Pirates Other party No party All parties DK Total Social welfare / justice Euro crisis Labor market Education Economy general Energy Family / child care NSA / data protection Immigration Ändern der Fußzeile in Master-Seite 12. Dezember 2013 Source: GLES 2013

20 The voters view: government performance at federal elections 2009 and Government CDU in government CSU in government FDP in government SPD in government Entries are means on 11-point scales (-5 to +5) Source: GLES 2009 and 2013

21 The voters view: candidates 2013, 2009, 2005 Evaluations (means, scale -5 to +5) CDU/CSU (Merkel) 2.2 [+1.0] SPD (Steinbrück/Steinmeier/Schröder) 0.4 [-0.5] FDP -0.5 [+0.5] Greens 0.0 [-0.4] The Left -0.4 [+1.1] Chancellor preferences (%) Merkel Steinbrück / Steinmeier Differences to candidates parties ratings in parentheses. Sources: RCS Election study 2005, GLES 2009 and 2013

22 The parties campaigns: coalition signals CDU/CSU FDP SPD Greens The Left seeks continuation of black-yellow coalition, but rejects vote-borrowing to FDP; ambiguous about grand coalition seeks continuation of black-yellow coalition; just started second-vote campaign seeks revival of red-green coalition; red-red-green coalition ruled out; ambiguous about grand coalition seek revival of red-green coalition makes (conditional) offers to SPD and Greens (rejected)

23 The voters view: coalitions Evaluations (means on scales -5 to +5) Perceived willingness of parties (means, 1=not to 5=in any case) Black-yellow (C/C+F) Red-green (S+G) Grand (C/C+S) Black-green (C/C+S) Traffic-light (S+G+F) Red-red-green (S+G+L) Expectations Black-yellow (C/C+F) 49.1% Red-green (S+G) 11.8% Grand (C/C+S) 33.5% Sources: GLES 2009 and 2013

24 Implications of coalitions for governance: composition of the Bundesrat Bavaria after state election of 9/15/13: CSU Hesse state election on 9/22/13: CDU/FDP or SPD/Greens?

25 The voters preferences: close race between CDU/CSU+FDP vs SPD+Greens+Left 0.7 July - August day prior moving averages 0.6 Vote intentions (%) Government Opposition Sources: GLES 2013

26 Towards a balanced budget Estimate for 2013: bio Source: Breuer et al. (2012) Source: Starke (2013)

27 Ändern der Fußzeile in Master-Seite 12. Dezember 2013

28 Prof. Dr. Rüdiger Schmitt-Beck / Direktor 05. März 2012

29 Arbeitslosigkeit Arbeitslosenquote in Deutschland - Jahresdurchschnittswerte bis 2013 Deutschland Arbeitslosenquote in Deutschland im Jahresdurchschnitt von 1995 bis 2013 Arbeitslosenquote (in Prozent) Jahre von 1995 bis ,40 10,40 11,40 11,10 10,50 9,60 9,40 9,80 10,50 10,50 11,70 10,80 9,00 7,80 8,10 7,70 7,10 6,80 7, '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13* * Der Wert für 2013 bezieht sich auf die Monate von Januar bis August. Die Werte für die Jahre bis 2008 stammen aus früheren Publikationen der Bundesagentur für Arbeit. Die Arbeitslosenquote stellt den Anteil der Arbeitslosen an der Gesamtzahl der zivilen Erwerbspersonen dar und ist ein richtungsweisender Beleg für die Arbeitsmarkt- und Beschäftigungslage sowie ein Te... weiter im Backup Hinweis: Weitere Angaben zu dieser Statistik, sowie Erläuterungen zu Fußnoten, sind im Backup des Dossiers auf 39 Seite zu finden, ID 1224 Quelle: Bundesagentur für Arbeit, Arbeits- und Ausbildungsmarkt in Deutschland, August 2013, Seite 57

30

31 The voters view: perceptions of general economic situation since 2009 Source: Politbarometer

32 The voters view: perceived general economic prospects since 2012 Source: Politbarometer

33 The voters view: most important problems since 2000 Source: Politbarometer

34 The voters view: position issues Fewer taxes even if less welfare (0) vs more welfare even if higher taxes (1) 0.49 [2009: 0.44] Immigrants should adapt to German culture (0=disagree completely, 1 = agree completely) 0.72 Government should reduce income differences (0=disagree completely, 1 = agree completely) 0.74 In times of the European debt crisis, Germany should financially support EU member states in deep economic and financial troubles (0=disagree completely, 1 = agree completely) 0.48 Sources: GLES 2009 and 2013

35 The voters view: government performance evaluations since 2009 Source: Politbarometer

36 Where did 2013 CDU/CSU and AfD voters come from (vote choices at 2009 election)? CDU/ CSU CDU/ CSU FDP SPD Greens Left Other parties Nonvoter AfD Source: GLES 2013

37

38 The (established) parties campaigns: highly personalized, little substance Ändern der Fußzeile in Master-Seite 12. Dezember 2013

39 The Merkel rhombus

40 On the Social Democrats side another gesture captured the public s attention

41 Ändern der Fußzeile in Master-Seite 12. Dezember 2013

42