Pros and Cons Evenly Matched on Constitutional Revision
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1 Pros and Cons Evenly Matched on Constitutional Revision From the Attitude Survey on the Constitution of Japan 1 January 2016 ARAMAKI Hiroshi MASAKI Miki Public Opinion Research Division NHK Broadcasting Culture Research Institute 1 This article is based on the authors article Sanpi Ga Kikkou Suru Kenpoukaisei : Kenpou Ni Kansuru Ishiki Chosa Kara [Pros and Cons Running Neck and Neck on Constitutional Amendment from the Attitude Survey on the Constitution of Japan],originally published in the July 2015 issue of Hoso Kenkyu to Chosa [ The NHK Monthly Report on Broadcast Research].Full text in Japanese may be accessed at: 1
2 Amid increasingly active moves toward revision of the Constitution under the Abe Shinzo administration, it may be useful to note the four telephone surveys conducted by NHK on constitutional revision in 2007, 2013, 2014, and This paper analyzes and reports the results of the surveys while comparing them chronologically. In response to the question whether it is necessary to revise the Constitution, in the 2007 survey the rate of necessary responses (41 percent) was much higher than the rate for those saying not necessary (24 percent). In 2014, however, the proportion for necessary decreased to almost the same level as that for not necessary and in 2015, too, the proportions for necessary (28 percent) and not necessary (25 percent) remained very close to each other. As for revision of the Constitution s Article 9, which renounces war as a sovereign right of the nation, in 2007, more people (41 percent) said revision of Article 9 is not necessary than those who said it was necessary (28 percent). In 2013, the two percentages were almost the same, but in 2014 the percentage for necessary decreased, and the rate for not necessary rose once again. In 2015, too, the share for not necessary (38 percent) remains higher than for necessary (22 percent). The reason that the share saying necessary decreased in 2014 both for revision of the Constitution and revision of Article 9 is presumably because people have become more cautious in their attitudes toward the subject as debate on the pros and cons of constitutional revision comes to closer grips with the realities involved. With regard to Japan s exercise of the right to collective self-defense, the percentage of people who are cautious about that exercise increased between 2013 and In 2015, even after the Abe Cabinet s controversial decision to formally recognize Japan s exercise of the right, the rate of those opposing the exercise (30 percent) is higher than the rate of those supporting it (22 percent). None of the past cabinets approved the exercise, but the Abe Cabinet has approved it, not by amending the Constitution but by changing the government s long-established interpretation of the Constitution. When asked if this manner of approval is appropriate, a low 15 percent said appropriate ; moreover, only 32 percent feel the government s explanation to the people about this issue is either adequate or somewhat adequate. 1. Survey Outline The Japanese Constitution, which marked its 68th year on May 3, 2015, has never been amended; it has been the country s supreme law that determined the course of postwar Japan. Eager to realize its first-ever amendment, Prime Minister Abe Shinzo has been steadily making preparations ever since he formed his first cabinet in 2006 (see Figure 1). In 2007 he enacted the referendum law that stipulates procedures for revising the Constitution, and in June 2014 a bill revising the referendum law was passed that sets the minimum voting age for a national referendum at 18. With the hurdles posed by procedures for constitutional revision having been lowered, the commissions on the Constitution in both houses of the Diet have entered into full-fledged deliberations. To amend the Constitution it is required that the Diet initiate a referendum after at least two-thirds of the members in both houses vote for it, and that majority support the revision in a national referendum. In the House of Representatives the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its coalition partner, Komeito, together hold a two-thirds majority. Depending on the results of the House of Councilors election scheduled for 2016, a referendum might be held in which the people would decide to vote for or against revision of the Constitution. 2
3 Figure 1. NHK Surveys and Major Events Related to the Constitution September 2006 First Abe Cabinet is launched. May 2007 Referendum Law is enacted. July LDP suffers crushing defeat in House of Councilors elections. August 2007 NHK Survey. September 2009 DPJ takes power after House of Representatives elections (held on Aug. 30). July 2010 In House of Councilors elections, LDP increases its seats. December 2012 LDP takes power after House of Representatives elections. Second Abe Cabinet is formed. Debate heats up over revision of Article 96. April NHK Survey. July LDP wins overwhelming victory in House of Councilors elections, becoming the leading party in both Houses. December Secret Information Protection Act is passed. April 2014 June July December April 2015 May Cabinet decides to review the three principles banning exportation of weapons NHK Survey. Revised Referendum Law is enacted. Cabinet decides to approve Japan s exercise of the right to collective defense. In House of Representatives elections, the ruling coalition garners more than two-thirds of seats. Third Abe Cabinet is formed NHK Survey. Commissions on the Constitution of both Houses start full-fledged discussions. Figure 2. Survey Outline Period Method Sample Valid responses (%) Apr. 18 (Fri) Apr. 19 (Fri) to 20 (Sun) to 21 (Sun) Apr. 17 (Fri) to 19 (Sun) Telephone survey (random digit dialing) Japanese aged 18 and older Aug. 3 (Fri) to 5 (Sun) 2,528 2,667 2,685 2,548 1,551 (61.4%) 1,600 (60.0%) 1,615 (60.1%) 1,486 (58.3%) With constitutional revision becoming increasingly likely, it is crucial to assess public opinion. NHK has traced changes in public attitudes toward the Constitution and its revision in telephone surveys four times, in 2007, 2013, 2014 and 2015, all of them conducted when Abe was at the helm of government. This paper analyzes and reports mainly on the results of the latest survey (2015), but at the same time, compares them with those of the past surveys when time series comparison is possible. The four surveys are outlined in Figure 2. 3
4 2. People s Attitudes toward Constitutional Revision Seven out of ten people show interest To what degree are people interested in revision of the Constitution? Results of the 2015 survey show 21 percent to be very interested and 49 percent interested to some degree, which means that 70 percent show interest in the debate on this question (Figure 3). On the other hand, 29 percent do not show interest, which combines the 23 percent who are not very interested and 6 percent not interested at all. Looked at by gender and age group, more men are very interested than women, and by age group the highest rate of those who are very interested is found among people in their 60s and older. Nearly half of people aged 18 39, on the other hand, do not show interest, with those not very interested making up 39 percent and those not interested at all 8 percent. Figure 3. Interest in Debate over Constitutional Revision (2015; overall, by gender and age group) Very interested Don t know/no answer Interested to some degree Not interested at all Not very interested 4
5 Pros and cons are about equal When asked if it is necessary to revise the Constitution, 28 percent say revision is necessary, 25 percent say revision is not necessary, and 43 percent say cannot say, either way (Figure 4). Given the three options to choose from, while the highest percentage select cannot say, either way, the rate of those saying necessary and that saying not necessary are about the same, meaning the pros and cons on constitutional revision are closely aligned. Observing the trend since 2007, we see that in 2007 the proportion saying necessary was higher (41 percent) than that saying not necessary (24 percent); in 2013 the former did not appreciably change (42 percent) but the latter decreased (16 percent), while the percentage for cannot say, either way rose to 39 percent. That reflected a growing mood in favor of constitutional revision at that time of the 2013 survey, which was conducted immediately after the second Abe Cabinet was launched. In 2014, however, the share saying necessary decreased to 28 percent and the share saying not necessary increased to 26 percent, resulting in almost no gap between the two. The 2015 survey produced similar results, showing that the pros and cons remain very close. Looking at the responses by gender, there have always been more men than women who consider constitutional revision necessary whereas both men and women who consider it necessary decreased between 2013 and 2014 (Figure 5). In 2015, the proportion for men stands at 37 percent and women at 21 percent, i.e., no change compared to the previous year. By age group, 40 to 50 percent said necessary for all the age groups in 2007 and But in 2014, those percentages fell to between above 20 percent and below 40 percent. In this way, the percentages of those who said revision is necessary decreased overall between 2013 and 2014, regardless of gender or age. This is presumably because people s attitudes changed greatly as the ruling coalition came to hold a large majority in both houses of the Diet, imparting a stronger sense of the realities in the debate over constitutional revision. Figure 4. Pros and Cons of Constitutional Revision Don t know/no answer Revision is necessary Cannot say, either way Revision is not necessary %
6 (%) Figure 5. Revision Is Necessary (by gender and age group) Men Women Aged 18 to 39 40s 50s 60s 70 and older Main reason for pros: Problems have surfaced that the present Constitution does not address Those considering revision necessary were asked to select the reason that best describes why they think so from among three options given. The highest proportion, 79 percent, chose Times have changed, bringing about new problems that the present Constitution does not address (Figure 6). The two other options received weak support; both Revision is necessary for Japan to perform its role in international society and The present Constitution was forced upon the Japanese by U.S. occupation forces garnered low support at around 10 percent. Figure 6. Reasons in Support of and Against Constitutional Revision (denominator: number of people for/against revision) Reasons in support of revision (n=429) (454) (672) (607) Times have changed, bringing about new problems the present Constitution does not address Revision is necessary for Japan to perform its role in international society 79% The present Constitution was forced upon the Japanese by U.S. occupation forces Reasons opposing revision (n=382) (419) (259) (363) Want to protect the war-renouncing Article 9 The present Constitution does have some problems but they are not serious enough to revise it The present Constitution is a good constitution 67%
7 Three options (reasons) were also provided for respondents who consider revision not necessary. The highest percentage, 67 percent, chose Want to protect the war-renouncing Article 9, followed by The present Constitution does have some problems but they are not serious enough to revise it and The present Constitution is a good constitution, in that order. The percentage for each of the reasons for support of constitutional revision has been more or less the same since As for the reasons for the opposition to revision, too, while in 2015 the proportion for protection of Article 9 has increased and the rate for some problems but not serious has decreased, their order remains unchanged and there has not been any marked change overall. 3. Attitudes toward Article 9 Eight out of ten value the role of Article 9 Article 9 renounces war and bans war potential. The Survey asks to what degree people value the role Article 9 has played in postwar Japan. The results of the 2015 survey show that 34 percent highly value and 45 percent value to some degree, meaning a total of 79 percent see Article 9 in a positive light (Figure 7). Eleven percent do not value it very much and 3 percent do not value it at all. Figure 7. How Article 9 Is Valued Don t know/no answer Do not value at all Highly value Value to some degree Do not value very much % With regard to the percentage who value Article 9, combining highly and to some degree, there is no difference between men and women, while by age group the percentage is high for people in their 40s (89 percent) and in their 50s (87 percent). In terms of change over time, the percentage of those who value the role of the Constitution, which stood at 81 percent in 2007, decreased to 76 percent in 2013 and 75 percent In 2015, however, it has increased to 79 percent, almost the same level as
8 A closer look shows that the rate of those selecting highly value declined in 2013 but increased to 34 percent, almost the same level as in 2007 when it was 36 percent. More against than for revision of Article 9 Asked whether or not revision of Article 9 is necessary, 22 percent says necessary, 34 percent cannot say, either way, and 38 percent not necessary. More people oppose revision than support it (Figure 8) Looking at the trend over the years of the surveys, we see that in 2007 more people said not necessary, with 28 percent choosing necessary and 41 percent not necessary, but in 2013 the percentages for necessary and cannot say, either way increased, resulting in equal proportions for the three options, at around 30 percent. In 2014 the share for necessary decreased to 23 percent and the share for not necessary increased to 38 percent; again more people considered revision of Article 9 not necessary. In 2015 each of the options remains the same as in The share for necessary is 22 percent, a decline from 28 percent in Figure 8. For or Against Revision of Article 9 Don t know/no answer 2015 Revision is necessary Cannot say, either way Revision is not necessary 22% Many men think it necessary to revise Article 9 while few women think so (Figure 9). Between 2007 and 2013, there was a significant increase for men, as well as for the 50s and 70s-and-older age groups, while in 2014 there was a significant decrease not only for men and the 50s and 70s-and-older age groups but also for women. In 2015 there is no significant change by gender or age group. 8
9 Figure 9. For or Against Revision of Article 9: Revision Is Necessary (by gender and age group) (%) Men Women Aged 18 to 39 40s 50s 60s 70 and older Greatest reason against revision: Article 9 is the most important clause in the Constitution Those considering the revision of Article 9 necessary were asked to select, from among four options, the reason that best describes why they think so. The top response is The Constitution should more clearly state that Japan can possess self-defense capabilities (44 percent) and the second-ranking response is The Constitution should allow Japan to participate in United Nations-led military activities (25 percent). (See Figure 10.) These are followed by The Constitution should more clearly stipulate that Japan renounces all military capabilities including by the Self-Defense Forces (15 percent) and The Constitution should allow Japan to resort to force overseas (8 percent) in that order. Of the reasons cited by people who oppose the revision, the option Article 9 is the most important clause in the pacifist Constitution garners the majority, or 65 percent. This is followed by The revision might cast off restraints on the use of force overseas and Problems can be dealt with without revising Article 9, by changing the interpretation of the Constitution, both of which receive 13 percent. Six percent choose the option The revision would damage international relations, especially relations with other Asian countries. Thus, regarding the reasons for and against the revision of Article 9, too, we see no great change since The top response among the reasons in support of the revision has always been The Constitution should more clearly state that Japan can possess self-defense capabilities ; in the opposite case, the top response has always been Article 9 is the most important clause in the pacifist Constitution. 9
10 Figure 10. Reasons for Support or Opposition to the Revision of Article 9 (denominator: number of people for/against revision) Reasons for support (n=343) (370) (535) (412) The Constitution should more clearly state that Japan can possess self-defense capabilities The Constitution should allow Japan to participate in United Nations-led military activities The Constitution should more clearly stipulate that Japan renounces all military capabilities including by the Self-Defense Forces The Constitution should allow Japan to resort to force overseas 44% Reasons for opposition (n=596) (615) (483) (602) Article 9 is the most important clause in the pacifist Constitution 65% The revision might cast off restraints on the use of force overseas Problems can be dealt with without revising Article 9, by changing the interpretation of the Constitution The revision would damage international relations, especially relations with other Asian countries Estimations of Exercise of the Right to Collective Self-defense The right to collective self-defense refers to the ability of a country to mount counterattacks when it deems an attack on an ally to be an attack on itself. The right is recognized by the United Nations Charter. The interpretation that has long been held by successive Japanese cabinets is that under international law Japan has the right but that its use is not allowable under Article 9 of the Constitution. In July 2014, however, the Abe Cabinet approved a reinterpretation of the Constitution to allow Japan to participate in collective self-defense operations. National security policy that has prevailed since the end of World War II underwent a drastic change due to a reinterpretation of the Constitution by the members of a single administration Cabinet. More continue to oppose than support exercise of the right Questions concerning the right to collective self-defense were provided in the 2013 and 2014 surveys, prior to the July 2014 Abe Cabinet approval of exercise of the right. In these surveys, it was stated in advance that The government s interpretation of the Constitution bans exercise of the right, and then, regarding whether exercise of the right to collective self-defense should be allowed, people were asked to choose, from among four options 10
11 (Figure 11), the one that best described their view. In 2013, the top choice of 29 percent was Should be allowed by changing the government s interpretation of the Constitution. Combined with Should be allowed by revising the Constitution (19 percent), the rate of those saying Should be allowed was as high as 48 percent. On the other hand, the rate of those saying Should not be allowed was only 25 percent, including Should not be allowed, maintaining the previous governments interpretation of the Constitution (17 percent) and The right to collective self-defense itself should not be allowed (9 percent). In the April 2014 survey, conducted only a few months before the Cabinet decision to allow exercise of the right to collective self-defense, the share for Should be allowed by revising the Constitution decreased from 19 percent to 13 percent; so did the share for Should be allowed by changing the government s interpretation of the Constitution from 29 percent to 21 percent. The combined percentage for Should be allowed decreased from 48 percent to 34 percent. By contrast, the rate of those saying Should not be allowed, maintaining the previous governments interpretation of the Constitution increased from 17 percent to 27 percent, taking the top position among the four options. The rate of those saying The right to collective self-defense itself should not be allowed also increased from 9 percent to 14 percent. The combined percentage for Should not be allowed jumped to 41 percent, from 26 percent in 2013, overtaking the percentage for Should be allowed. Figure 11. Should Exercise of the Right to Collective Self-Defense Be Allowed? Should be allowed 34% Should not be allowed 41% % Should be allowed by revising the Constitution Should be allowed by changing the previous governments interpretation of the Constitution Should not be allowed, maintaining the previous governments interpretation of the Constitution The right to collective defense itself should not be allowed. Other/Don t know/no answer 48% 26% In the 2015 survey, held after the Cabinet decided to change successive governments long-standing interpretation of the Constitution, people were asked to choose from among three options support, opposition, and cannot say, either way with regard to Japan s 11
12 capacity to exercise the right to collective self-defense. Results show that, while 42 percent choose cannot say, either way, more people give opposition (30 percent) than support (22 percent). (See Figure 12.) Despite the government s decision in favor of the exercise of the right, more people express opposition than support as they did in By gender, there is no difference as far as opposition is concerned, but far more men (38 percent) give support than do women (11 percent). Among men more give support than opposition, whereas among women half say Cannot say, either way. By age group, the proportion for support is between 20 and 28 percent for any age group, and there is no age group in which support of exercise of the right to collective self-defense surpasses opposition. Figure 12. Support for or Opposition to Exercise of the Right to Collective Self-Defense (2015; overall, by gender and age group) Don t know/no answer Support Cannot say, either way Opposition Approval of the exercise of the right through constitutional reinterpretation is deemed appropriate by 15 percent How do people assess the way the Abe Cabinet enabled Japan to exercise the right to collective self-defense, not by revising the Constitution but by changing the long-held interpretation? A low 15 percent deem it appropriate while 33 percent consider it inappropriate and 44 percent give cannot say, either way (Figure 13). The rate of those saying appropriate is small, between percent for both men 12
13 and women, and for all age groups. The rate of those saying inappropriate exceeds 40 percent for men and for middle-aged people in their 40s, 50s, and 60s. Figure 13. Assessment of Approval of Exercise of the Right to Collective Self-Defense through Change in the Constitutional Interpretation (2015; overall, by gender and age group) Appropriate Cannot say, either way Don t know/no answer Inappropriate Looking at those supporting the exercise of the right to collective self-defense and those opposing it separately, we see that 41 percent of the former deem the manner of instituting approval appropriate (Figure 14). This means that even among supporters of the exercise of the right only less than half consider the manner in which the approval was instituted appropriate. Among opponents of the exercise of the right, only 6 percent consider the manner of approval appropriate and as high as 67 percent inappropriate. Concerning the Abe Cabinet s approval without deliberation in the Diet or adopting such necessary procedures as constitutional revision, some constitutional scholars severely criticize it as de facto constitutional revision by way of reinterpretation. People s understanding of how the constitutional interpretation maintained by successive governments after the war was changed by a single cabinet s decision is not widespread. 13
14 Figure 14. Assessment of Approval of Exercise of the Right to Collective Self-Defense through Change in the Constitutional Interpretation (2015; proponents versus opponents of exercise of the right) Inappropriate Don t know/no answer Appropriate Cannot say, either way Proponents (n=340) 41% Cannot say, either way (n=647) Opponents (n=458) Six out of ten feel the government has not provided explanation How do people feel about whether the government has provided explanation of its lifting of Japan s self-imposed ban on collective self-defense? Results show that 61 percent feel explanation has not been provided (49 percent for explanation not very adequate and 12 percent for explanation inadequate ), much higher than 32 percent who feel explanation has been provided (2 percent for explanation adequate and 30 percent for explanation somewhat adequate ) (Figure 15). Regardless of gender and in all age groups more than half feel that explanation has not been provided. Among those in their 40s and in their 60s about 70 percent think that way (Figure 16). At a press conference following the cabinet s decision to enable exercise of the right to collective self-defense, Prime Minister Abe said, From now on, too, I will explain with great care in the effort to win understanding from the public. The right to collective self-defense is a legal concept that, by nature, is not easy to understand and so a more careful and concrete explanation is needed, but people s satisfaction with explanations made by the government so far is generally low. Figure 15. Regarding Government Explanation of Its Approval of Exercise of the Right to Collective Self-Defense (2015) Explanation adequate Explanation inadequate Don t know/no answer Explanation somewhat adequate Explanation not very adequate 2 30% Explanation adequate 32% 14 Explanation inadequate 61%
15 (%) Figure 16. Regarding Government Explanation of Its Approval of Exercise of the Right to Collective Self-Defense: Explanation Inadequate (2015; by gender and age group) Men Women Aged 18 to 39 40s 50s 60s 70 and older 5.Revision of Article 96 and Constitutionalism In this section, people s thinking about the Constitution is examined from the points of view of revision of Article 96 and constitutionalism using the results of the 2013 and 2014 surveys. More express opposition than support regarding revision of Article 96 Article 96 specifies the requirements for the Diet to initiate amendments or revisions to the Constitution. When he formed his second Cabinet in December 2012, Abe expressed his strong ambition to revise this article. In order to make it easier for the Diet to initiate constitutional revision, he argued that support by more than two-thirds of lawmakers required in each house of the Diet should be reduced to more than half of lawmakers. He also stated that the LDP should aspire to amend Article 96 before any other article and make it part of its campaign promise in the House of Councilors elections scheduled for July That resulted in a heated debate over the pros and cons of revision of Article 96. With this development in mind, the NHK survey conducted in April 2013, asked people if they support or oppose the easing of the requirement for the Diet to initiate the revision of the Constitution by reducing support by more than two-thirds of lawmakers to support by more than half. Three options support, opposition, and cannot say, either way were provided. While nearly half said cannot say, either way, 26 percent said support and 24 percent oppose, meaning the pros and cons were closely aligned (Figure 17). The LDP s attempt to lower the bar for constitutional revision by revising Article 96 invited sharp criticism from some constitutional scholars and other specialists. There were also many in the Komeito party, LDP s coalition partner, who expressed opposition. Public-opinion polls conducted by media organizations showed very low support. Ultimately, instead of making revision of Article 96 part of its campaign promise, the LDP put forward economic growth driven by Abenomics a mixture of fiscal stimulus, monetary easing, and 15
16 structural reforms and won a sweeping victory in the House of Councilors elections. In February 2014, during the Diet session, Prime Minister Abe again stated, Article 96 has to be revised, and I will continue to stress the necessity of its revision. The NHK survey in April 2014 asked people as in the previous survey if they support or oppose the easing of requirements for initiating amendments of the Constitution. Results indicated that the share saying support was 18 percent, a decrease from 26 percent in 2013, whereas the share saying opposition increased from 24 percent to 30 percent, meaning that opposition overtook support (Figure 17). This suggests that as the constitutional revision grew increasingly likely, people became more cautious about the move to ease the requirements for procedures that would appear to take for granted that revision would be carried out. Figure 17. Do You Support or Oppose the Revision of Article 96? Don t know/no answer Support Cannot say, either way Opposition % Constitutionalism should receive primary consideration 71 percent Finally, let us look at results of the question concerning constitutionalism the fundamental idea behind the current Constitution from the 2014 survey. The survey asked if constitutionalism restraining the power of the government and protecting the people s rights should be a primary consideration in the debate over constitutional reinterpretation and amendments. As high as 71 percent regarded constitutionalism as a primary consideration and only 11 percent said it was not a primary consideration (Figure 18). By gender, more men (76 percent) said it was a primary consideration than women, and the age groups that had higher percentages were those in their 40s (79 percent) and 60s (78 percent). But the differences were small, at 70 to 80 percent for both men and women of all age groups (Figure 19). Figure 18. Should Constitutionalism Receive Primary Consideration? Other/Don t know/no answer Should receive primary consideration Is not a primary consideration 71%
17 Figure 19. Constitutionalism Should Receive Primary Consideration (%) (2014; by gender and age group) Men Women Aged 18 to 39 40s 50s 60s 70 and older Even among the supporters of amendments to the Constitution or to Article 9 a majority said constitutionalism was a primary consideration 75 percent of those who saw constitutional revisions as necessary and 79 percent of those who saw revision of Article 9 as necessary (Figure 20). Despite differences in opinion over revision, three out of four people support the role of the Constitution that is to restrain the power of government and protect the people s rights. Figure 20. Should Constitutionalism Receive Primary Consideration? (2014; those who consider constitutional revision / Article 9 necessary or not necessary ) Constitutional revision Should receive primary consideration Other/Don t know/no answer Is not a primary consideration Necessary 75% Not necessary Revision of Article 9 Necessary Not necessary
18 6.Epilogue The 2013 survey, held four months after the start of the second Abe Cabinet, which had received strong public support, suggested a growing public mood in favor of constitutional amendments. While the proportion of support for constitutional revision remained unchanged since the first 2007 survey, the opposition rate decreased. The proportion of those who supported the revision of Article 9 increased. However, in the 2014 survey, both support for constitutional revision and support for revision of Article 9 decreased. As a result, regarding constitutional revision support and opposition were evenly matched, and as for revision of Article 9, opposition overtook support. The same situation continued in the 2015 survey. In , revision of Article 96 and the right to collective self-defense became subjects of heated debate. The LDP greatly increased its seats in the House of Councilors through the elections held in the summer of 2013, resulting in a majority for the ruling coalition in both houses of the Diet. Apparently, people grew cautious about the revision, feeling that constitutional revision was no longer a matter of the distant future but was becoming a more likely reality. In July 2014 the Cabinet approved a constitutional reinterpretation that would allow Japan to exercise the right to collective self-defense. The 2015 survey found, however, that many people felt the reinterpretation of the Constitution was not the proper method or that the government s explanation of its approval of the exercise of collective self-defense was not sufficient. That support for constitutional revision has remained low since the first 2007 survey may reflect people s dissatisfaction with the procedures taken by the government. Depending on the results of the House of Councilors elections scheduled for 2016, concrete steps may begin to be taken toward constitutional revision. What is very important here, as suggested by the recent NHK survey, is whether the government will be able to proceed in a way that will gain public support. 18
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