Natural Gas Supply and Demand A Delicate Balancing Act. Jack Weixel VP Analysis

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1 Natural Gas Supply and Demand A Delicate Balancing Act Jack Weixel VP Analysis

2 First off, who is PointLogic Energy? Full service, energy fundamental data service provider. 30 employees consisting of both upstream, midstream and downstream experts with offices in Houston, Denver, El Paso and Gaithersburg, MD. Started over 18 years ago as Lippman Consulting (later renamed LCI Energy Insight). Purchased by OPIS in December 2012 and renamed PointLogic Energy in January Over 350 years of combined industry experience. Detailed basin, regional and macro reports spanning multiple delivery platforms.

3 PointLogic Energy Services Detailed Flow Data Production, Demand, Compressors and Custom Throughputs for Every Interstate Pipeline at Every State Border. Notice Service Searchable, Interactive IOC Database Pipeline Project Data and Details Interactive Client Variable Modeling, No Black Boxes Customized Subscription Packages and Enterprise Pricing Best in Class Customer Service Top tier data interface, data delivery in easy to use formats.

4 PointLogic Energy Data Suite Energy Data Suite Pipelines Storage, Supply Demand and more Production Power Imports & Exports Watchlist Queries Easily drill into essential data and generate the analysis you need to boost your bottom line.

5 Get the Point PointLogic Energy s FREE Weekly Trend Report Examines key energy market drivers Written by veteran energy experts and analysts Each weekly issue explores new trends in oil and gas supply, demand and prices Trend analyses leverages proprietary PointLogic Energy data, maps and other intelligence Reliable insight you won t find anywhere else! Sign up for free

6 What more can we possibly talk about? Lower 48 Balance how did we get here? Demand Expectations and Review of Panel Forecasts Supply Stagnations, Accelerations and Panel Forecast Lower 48 Balance where do we go from here?

7 2015 Summer td vs Summer td Supply Demand Dry Prod 3.2 LNG Can Imports Supply 3.7 Power 4.1 Industrial Res/Com Mex Ex Demand Season to date: 1.2 Bcf/d Short Versus Summer 14 to date Was 3.1 Bcf/d Long on May 22 nd Was 1.1 Bcf/d Long on June 12 th Source: PointLogic Energy Supply & Demand Report

8 Power and Mexico Pushing the Envelope Power up 4.1 Bcf/d Summer TD, Mexico up 1.0 Bcf/d Total Demand up 4.8 Bcf/d Versus Summer 2012 TD, Total Demand Up 3.3 Bcf/d Week on Week Power Burn Delta Summer 15 Versus Summer 14 (Bcf/d) Week on Week Mexican Exports Delta Summer 15 Versus Summer 14 (Bcf/d)

9 Demand to date for Summer Total Demand - Summers in Bcf/d No reason for demand to dip going into late shoulder season as Mexico persists and price is suitable for power generators. 3-Year Range 3-Year Average 2015 Extrap. Forecast

10 2015 Summer Forecast vs Summer Supply Demand Dry Prod LNG Can Imports Supply Power Industrial Res/Com Mex Ex Demand Summer 15 Season Base Forecast: 1.0 Bcf/d Short Versus Summer 14 Equates to 214 Bcf less gas available to inject into storage 7.1 Bcf per week lower injection over 30 weeks of summer Source: PointLogic Energy Supply & Demand Report

11 Demand Impact on Storage 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Storage Inventory (Bcf) Upper Bound: 4.2 Tcf 2014 Injection Rate Lower Bound: 3.0 Tcf 5 Yr. Minimum 3.98 Tcf 5 Year Range Demand Forecast

12 Expectations for Winter 2015/2016 Demand Delta to Winter 14/15 (Bcf/d) Power 0.0 Industrial 1.2 Res/Comm Mex Ex 1.0 LNG = Total Demand Bcf/d Capacity at Sabine Train 1 starting in Dec/Jan. Actual commercial deliveries to start in April 16. Source: EIA and PointLogic Energy

13 Expectations for Winter 2015/2016 Demand What do these two temperature outlooks have in common?

14 Expectations for Winter 2015/2016 Demand Up 1.5 Bcf/d vs. EIA STEO Power 1.6 PointLogic Estimates -- Delta to Winter 14/15 (Bcf/d) Pace of Industrial Gains Slower than Anticipated Industrial 0.5 Weather is a Marginal Player Winter 15/16 Res/Comm Mex Ex 1.0 LNG 0.2 = Total Demand Bcf/d Capacity at Sabine Train 1 starting in Dec/Jan. Actual commercial deliveries to start in April 16. Source: EIA and PointLogic Energy

15 Panel Forecasts for Demand Total Domestic Demand Plus Mexico and LNG Exports (Bcf/d) EIA Winter 14/15 Actual PointLogic BTU Analytics Bentek - Weather Normalized SNL Energy* *Derived value with permission, not an official SNL Forecast

16 What s Going On Production? Lower 48 Dry Production (Bcf/d) Production stagnation waning Aug up 1.6 Bcf/d compared to Jan But, production grew 4.5 Bcf/d from Jan to Aug

17 Production Forecast Winter Dry Production Forecast through Winter 2016 (Bcf/d) Actual Forecast Prod

18 Panel Forecasts for Production Dry Production (Bcf/d) EIA Winter 14/15 Actual PointLogic BTU Analytics Bentek Energy SNL Energy

19 Winter 2015/16 vs. Winter 2014/15 Supply Demand Dry Prod LNG Can Imports Supply Power Industrial Res/Com Mex Ex LNG Ex Demand Winter 15/16 Forecast Market could be 0.6 Bcf/d Long versus Winter 2014/15. This equates to 89 Bcf less gas withdrawn over course of season. Source: PointLogic Energy Supply & Demand Report

20 Supply and Demand Impact on Storage 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Storage Inventory (Bcf) Lower Bound: 0.8 Tcf 5 Yr. Minimum Upper Bound: 2.5 Tcf 5 Yr. Maximum 1.94 Tcf or 1.89 Tcf Weather Norm or 1.85 Tcf Minimum 5 Year Range Demand Forecast 2016 Forecast 2016 Weather Norm

21 Storage Inventory Impact on Price Oct Feb Apr Jun Oct November Can Still Dip Lower as Lower 48 Storage Approaches Historical Fill Record. Upward Pressure Going into Jan and Feb as Power and Mexican Export Demand Persist, and LNG Exports Arrive on Scene. Downward Pressure into Summer 16 as demand struggles to keep up.

22 Key Takeaways Despite Market Going Short Over the Course of Summer, Rapid Fill to Storage Expected. Winter Demand Expected to Increase Season on Season. Winter Production Flat to Decreasing Season on Season. Impact on Storage Inventories is Negligible Within Range Expected. Systemic Increase in Demand Led By Mexican Exports Could Lead to Pop in Prices this Winter.

23 Contact Us Today! Jack Weixel Vice President, Analysis Customer Support Phone: ext. 1 Gaithersburg HQ: 9737 Washingtonian Blvd. Sales Phone: ext. 2 Houston Office: 1155 Dairy Ashford Rd.

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