Forex Overnight: EUR trading mixed

Transcription

1 Key Currencies (6 am GMT) Currencies Price Chg % Chg EURUSD % GBPUSD % AUDUSD % EURCHF % EURGBP % EURJPY % GBPJPY % USDCAD % USDCHF % USDJPY % Key Indices & Futures FTSE 100 Risers & Fallers Saxo Sales Trading Chg % Chg Close FTSE 100 Index % FTSE 250 Index % FTSE 100 Fut. (6 am GMT) % Risers GKN Plc GBp % Randgold Resources Ltd GBp % Croda International Plc GBp % CRH Plc GBp % Fallers Barclays Plc GBp % Royal Bank Of Scotland Group Plc Key Indices (6 am GMT) Chg % Chg Value Nikkei 225* % Hang Seng* % S&P/ASX 200* % Shanghai Comp* % BSE Sensex* % * Taken at 6 am GMT GBp % Vedanta Resources Plc GBp % Whitbread Plc GBp % Trading Desk +44 (0) IT support +44 (0) Sales Desk +44 (0) SalesTradingUK@saxomarkets.com privatesalesuk@saxomarkets.com Forex Overnight: EUR trading mixed The EUR is trading mixed against the major currencies this morning as traders remain on sidelines ahead of Italian bond auctions due later today. Moreover, Moody s Investor Service (Moody s) has indicated that Italy s inconclusive election outcome is credit negative for the nation s rating. Meanwhile, markets are keeping an eye on German and Eurozone confidence indices, the US durable goods orders and pending home sales data slated for release later today. Additionally, Ben Bernanke s semiannual testimony on the monetary policy to the House Committee later in the day is expected to garner market attention. At 6 am GMT, the EUR has marginally declined versus the USD to trade at USD while it has risen 0.1 percent versus the GBP to trade at GBP The AUD has weakened 0.1 percent versus the USD. Earlier today, Standard & Poor s (S&P) has maintained its AAA credit rating on Australia, with a Stable outlook. UK Stocks: Likely to open higher The FTSE 100 is expected to open 6 points in the green. Gross Domestic Product and Index of Services are the key economic indicators slated for release today. Centrica (CNA), Petrofac (PFC), ITV (ITV), Weir Group (WEIR), Intu Properties (INTU), Barratt Developments (BDEV), SEGRO (SGRO), Henderson Group (HGG), Carillion (CLLN), Restaurant Group (RTN), Interserve (IRV) and Oxford Biomedica (OXB) are scheduled to report their results today. According to the UK Health Protection Agency, GlaxoSmithKline s (GSK) Pandemrix swine flu vaccination has greatly increased the risk of children developing narcolepsy, a rare sleep disorder. The Financial Supervisory Commission has imposed a fine of USD 168,500 on Standard Chartered (STAN) for inadequate internal controls, after an employee in Taiwan misused funds through a credit card business-related loophole. The Financial Times has reported that the Co-operative Bank's GBP 1.0 billion capital shortfall has put its deal to purchase more than 600 branches from Lloyds Banking Group (LLOY) under threat. Asia: Trading mostly firmer Asian markets are trading mostly higher this morning tracking overnight gains on Wall Street. In Japan, auto and financial sector stocks, Toyota Motor (7203), Honda Motor (7267), Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (8306) and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial (8316) are trading lower amid profit booking. On the upside, Hokkaido Electric Power (9509) and Shikoku Electric Power (9507) have registered gains following broker upgrades. Sumitomo Realty & Development (8830) has climbed following a rise in land prices. Jupiter Telecommunications (4817) has soared after KDDI (9433) and Sumitomo Corporation (5401) hiked their offer prices for a tender to purchase the former. At 6 am GMT, the Nikkei 225 has declined 0.9 percent to trade at 11, In China, Citic Securities (600030) and Haitong Securities (600837) have advanced after the Chinese regulator indicated that it might allow more securities companies to conduct asset-backed securities businesses. In Hong Kong, AIA Group (1299) has jumped after it reported a significant increase in its 2012 net profit. In South Korea, Hyundai Motor (005380) has gained value after a filing indicated that the company is looking to settle lawsuits from US consumers. Saxo Capital Markets UK Limited London Canary Wharf 40 Bank Street, City of London E14 5DA, United Kingdom

2 Key Indices & Futures Chg % Chg Close Dow Index % S&P Index % Nasdaq 100 Index % Canadian TSX % Dow Index Future* % S&P Index Future* % Nasdaq 100 Index Future* % *At 6 am GMT S&P 500 Risers & Fallers Risers Pultegroup Inc USD % Home Depot Inc USD % Delphi Automotive Plc 39.7 USD % Ecolab Inc USD % Fallers Expeditors International of 37.1 USD % First Solar Inc USD % ONEOK Inc USD % Teradata Corp USD % Key Futures Chg % Chg Close EU Stoxx % DAX % CAC % As of Previous Close Eurostoxx 600 Risers & Fallers Risers Elementis Plc GBp % OPAP SA 6.8 EUR % GKN Plc GBp % Kerry Group Plc 42.4 EUR % Fallers Banco Popolare SC 1.3 EUR % US Stocks: Futures trading lower At 6 am GMT, S&P 500 futures are trading 1.2 points in the red. Durable Goods Orders, Pending Home Sales and MBA Mortgage Applications are the key economic indicators slated for release today. Target Corporation (TGT), TJX Companies (TJX), Newmont Mining (NEM), Continental Resources (CLR), Limited Brands (LTD), Mylan (MYL), Liberty Interactive (LINTA), Dollar Tree (DLTR), CenterPoint Energy (CNP) and Monster Beverage (MNST) are scheduled to report their results later today. In the after hours trading session on Tuesday, priceline.com (PCLN) advanced 3.8 percent following upbeat fourth quarter net profit. Better-than-expected quarterly results led Guidewire Software (GWRE) and Edison International (EIX) to jump 14.3 percent and 4.1 percent, respectively. Robust fourth quarter results and a strong 2013 revenue guidance led Zagg (ZAGG) to climb 5.6 percent. On the downside, a bleak first quarter outlook dragged First Solar (FSLR) 11.0 percent lower. Meru Networks (MERU) plummeted 9.3 percent after it commenced an underwritten public offering of its common stock. Accretive Health (AH) tumbled 19.9 percent after the company delayed the publication of its financial results for the fourth quarter. Yesterday, the S&P 500 index advanced 0.6 percent in the regular trading session after the Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman, Ben S. Bernanke, supported the Fed s open -ended asset purchases program. Additionally, better-than-expected US consumer confidence and new home sales data boosted investors sentiment. Apple (APPL) edged 1.4 percent higher amid speculation that the company might announce a stock split at its shareholders meeting today. Home Depot (HD) climbed 5.7 percent after it reported buoyant fourth quarter results and hiked its quarterly dividend payout. Additionally, the company s Board authorised a share buyback program of around USD 17.0 billion. Better-than-expected fourth quarter results and a strong 2013 earnings per share guidance led Macy s (M) to gain 2.8 percent. PulteGroup (PHM) and D.R. Horton (DHI) surged 5.7 percent and 4.1 percent, respectively, following upbeat housing data. SanDisk Corporation (SNDK) advanced 2.2 percent after a broker upgraded its rating on the stock to Out-Perform from Sector-Perform. On the downside, Best Buy (BBY) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM) slid 3.2 percent and 0.2 percent, respectively, after they indicated their plans to reduce their workforce. European Stocks: Expected to open stronger The DAX and the CAC are likely to open 28 points and 11 points higher, respectively. Eurozone, French & Portuguese Consumer Confidence Index, German GfK Consumer Confidence Survey & Import Price Index, Eurozone Economic, Service & Industrial Confidence Indices, Business Climate Indicator, M3 Money Supply & Private Loans, Swiss UBS Consumption Indicator & KOF Leading Indicator and Italian & Portuguese Business Confidence Index are the key economic indicators slated for release today. Anheuser-Busch Inbev SA (ABI), European Aeronautic Defence and Space Company NV (EAD), Holcim Limited (HOLN), Endesa SA (ELE), Bureau Veritas SA (BVI), Amadeus IT Holding SA (AMS), Bouygues SA (EN), Red Electrica Corporacion SA (REE), Swiss Life Holding AG (SLHN) and Prysmian SpA (PRY) are scheduled to report their results later today. Deutsche Bank (DBK) has indicated that the company would hold a special shareholders meeting on 11 April 2013, after investors challenged decisions of last year s annual meeting and has thereby delayed the publication of its 2012 annual report until mid April Intesa Sanpaolo SpA 1.2 EUR % Mediobanca SpA 4.9 EUR % UniCredit SpA 3.8 EUR % 2

3 Commodities & Bonds (6 am GMT) Commodity Future Price Chg % Chg Gold ($/oz) % Silver ($/oz) % Copper ($/lb.) % WTI Crude ($/barrel) % Brent Crude ($/barrel) % Corn (US cents/bushel) % Wheat (US cents/bushel) % Coffee C (US cents/lb.)* % Sugar No.11(US cents/lb.)* % Cotton No.2(US cents/lb.) % *As of Previous Close Treasury Futures Price Chg % Chg US 10 Year % US 2 Year % UK Long Gilt* % Euro Bund* % VIX* % *As of Previous Close Sovereign CDS 10yr Price Chg Germany Portugal Ireland Greece* Spain As of Previous Close; *As on 16 October 2012 Macro Update BoE s Fisher urges for prolonged bond buying at slower pace Paul Fisher, a member of the Bank of England s (BoE) monetary policy committee, has urged the central bank to resume its program of asset purchases for a prolonged period and at a slower pace to support the UK economy. Italy s inconclusive election outcome credit negative, indicates Moody's Moody s has indicated that Italy's inconclusive election outcome has negative implications on the country s as well as other weaker Eurozone nations credit rating. The ratings agency has warned of a rating downgrade for Italy in the event of further deterioration in the country s economic prospects or difficulties in implementing reforms. Australia s top rating secure, indicates S&P S&P has maintained its AAA credit rating on Australia with a Stable outlook, despite the nation s high household debt levels and dependence on foreign capital. Retail sales in Japan fall less-than-expected Retail sales in Japan have declined 1.1 percent Y-o-Y in January, less than market estimates and compared to a revised 0.3 percent rise reported in the previous month. South Korea s current account surplus widens The current account surplus in South Korea has widened to USD 2.3 billion in January compared to a revised USD 2.1 billion surplus reported in the earlier month. New Zealand unexpectedly swings to a trade deficit On a seasonally adjusted basis, the merchandise trade balance in New Zealand has unexpectedly swung to a deficit of NZD million in January compared to a revised NZD million surplus reported in December. 3

4 Economic Calendar Country GMT Economic Indicator Relevance Consensus/ *Actuals Previous/ **Previous Est. Frequency Germany 7:00 GfK Consumer Confidence Survey (Mar) Monthly Germany 7:00 Import Price Index (YoY) (Jan) -0.40% 0.30% Monthly Switzerland 7:00 UBS Consumption Indicator (Jan) Monthly France 7:45 Consumer Confidence (Feb) Monthly Switzerland 8:00 KOF Leading Indicator (Feb) Monthly Eurozone 9:00 M3 Money Supply s.a. (YoY) (Jan) 3.20% 3.30% Monthly Eurozone 9:00 Private loans (YoY) (Jan) -0.60% -0.70% Monthly Italy 9:00 Business Confidence (Feb) Monthly UK 9:30 Gross Domestic Product, Second Estimate (QoQ) (Q4) -0.30% -0.30%** Quarterly UK 9:30 Gross Fixed Capital Formation, Prelim (Q4) 0.20% -0.20% Quarterly UK 9:30 Total Business Investment, Prelim (YoY) (Q4) % Quarterly UK 9:30 Index of Services (MoM) (Dec) 0.00% 0.00% Monthly Eurozone 10:00 Economic Confidence (Feb) Monthly Eurozone 10:00 Industrial Confidence (Feb) Monthly Eurozone 10:00 Business Climate Indicator (Feb) Monthly Eurozone 10:00 Services Confidence (Feb) Monthly Eurozone 10:00 Consumer Confidence, Final (Feb) ** Monthly Portugal 10:00 Business Confidence (Feb) Monthly Portugal 10:00 Consumer Confidence (Feb) Monthly US 12:00 MBA Mortgage Applications (22 Feb) % Weekly US 13:30 Durable Goods Orders (Jan) -4.70% 4.30% Monthly US 13:30 Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation (Jan) 0.20% 1.00% Monthly US 15:00 Pending Home Sales (YoY) (Jan) 8.20% 4.90% Monthly US 15:00 Fed's Bernanke Testifies Eurozone 17:30 ECB's Draghi Speaks in Munich US 21:30 Japan 23:15 Fed's Fisher Speaks on Economy and Monetary Policy in New York Nomura/JMMA Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (Feb) Monthly Japan 23:50 Industrial Production, Prelim (YoY) (Jan) -4.90% -7.90% Monthly Note: High Medium Low 4

5 Corporate Calendar Country Company Name Index Announcement UK Barratt Developments Plc FTSE All Share Interim UK Bodycote Plc FTSE All Share Final UK Carillion Plc FTSE All Share Final UK Centrica Plc FTSE All Share Final UK Chemring Group Plc FTSE All Share Trading UK Henderson Group Plc FTSE All Share Final UK Interserve Plc FTSE All Share Final UK ITV Plc FTSE All Share Final UK Petrofac Ltd. FTSE All Share Final UK Promethean World Plc FTSE All Share Final UK Restaurant Group Plc FTSE All Share Prelim UK Segro Plc FTSE All Share Final UK Weir Group Plc FTSE All Share Final Belgium Anheuser-Busch Inbev SA EuroStoxx 50 Q4 Earnings Release France Bouygues SA CAC 40 Final France European Aeronautic Defence and Space Co NV CAC 40 Final US AES Corp. S&P 500 Q4 Earnings Release US CenterPoint Energy Inc. S&P 500 Q4 Earnings Release US Dollar Tree Inc. S&P 500 Q4 Earnings Release US J.C. Penney Company Inc. S&P 500 Q4 Earnings Release US Joy Global Inc. S&P 500 Q1 Earnings Release US Limited Brands Inc. S&P 500 Q4 Earnings Release US Monster Beverage Corp. S&P 500 Q4 Earnings Release US Mylan Inc. S&P 500 Q4 Earnings Release US NRG Energy Inc. S&P 500 Q4 Earnings Release US Pall Corp. S&P 500 Q2 Earnings Release US Target Corp. S&P 500 Q4 Earnings Release US TJX Companies Inc. S&P 500 Q4 Earnings Release Ex-Dividend Calendar Country Company Name Index Announcement UK Diageo Plc FTSE 100 Interim Ex-Dividend 5

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