World Bank - Grant Reporting and Monitoring (GRM) Report FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY. Ref. TF Reporting Period: 07/01/2014 to 06/30/2015

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1 Assignment: TF SRP- Investigate Welfare Mobility and Labor Transitions with Synthetic Panels Constructed From Repeated Cross Sections SRP - WORLD BANK STRATEGIC RESEARCH PROGRAM Task Team Leader: Approving Manager: Hai-Anh H. Dang - Francisco H. G. Ferreira Summary Information TF Status ACTV Recipient Country World Executed By Bank Managing Unit DECPI Grant Start Date / End Date 08/01/2014 to 11/30/2016 Program Manager Jaime G. Olazo Original Grant Amount 200, Grant Amount 100, Outstanding Commitments 0.00 Cumulative Disbursements 9, as of 06/30/2015 Disbursed 07/01/2014 to 06/30/2015 9, Donor TF MULTIPLE DONORS This GRM report includes the following sections: Overview, Program(SRP), Processing, Attached Documents, Disbursements, Internal Comments. Internal Bank Report Page 1 of 7

2 OVERVIEW Overall Assessments and Ratings Grant Objectives: We propose to investigate under this Grant, synthetic panel methods both methodologically and empirically, which can help provide insights into poverty dynamics where true panel data are not available. Our synthetic panel methods have been welcomed by Bank operational colleagues in all six regions and across multiple units, and we plan to develop these methods further to better measure the dynamics of poverty and shared prosperity in data-scarce environments. As part of our dissemination and capacity building efforts, we plan to make this method much more available and user-friendly to other Bank staff, clients (i.e. policy makers, staff at statistical agencies in developing countries), and other researchers. We plan to automate estimation procedures by providing our own Stata programs and perhaps also incorporating this method into ADEPT. We also plan to hold training sessions at the Bank or in selected workshops/ conferences on the application of our method. Overall progress from 07/01/2014 to 06/30/2015 with regard to Achieving Grant Objectives: Rating: Highly Satisfactory Comment: The infrequent collection of consumption data and panel data, particularly in developing countries, greatly hinders monitoring poverty trends and dynamics on a timely and consistent basis. Supported by the SRP resources, we studied two areas related to poverty measurement that centers on the broad topic of missing consumption data. One is survey to survey imputation, and the other is the construction of synthetic panels from cross sectional household surveys that can substitute for actual panel data. We also conducted some capacity building exercises to improve the research capacity of researchers from developing countries. Overall progress from 07/01/2014 to 06/30/2015 with regard to Implementation of Grant Financed Activities: Rating: Highly Satisfactory Comment: For the first area (survey imputation), our deliverables include i) a methodology paper (WP#7043) that provides a systematic framework for obtaining imputation-based estimates of poverty when actual consumption data are missing. This method is applied to household and labor force survey data from Jordan ii) an empirical paper (WP#7270) that applies our proposed imputation technique to validate the comparability of data across different rounds of the India NSSs For the second area (synthetic panel data), our deliverables include i) two empirical papers (WP#7141 and 7270) that construct synthetic panels for India and Senegal respectively. These synthetic panels are then employed to investigate the dynamics of poverty and vulnerability in these two countries. Both papers provide inputs into the poverty assessment reports for each country. ii) a method paper (WP#7294) that proposes a new measure of shared prosperity that relies on poverty and vulnerability measures that can be obtained from synthetic panels. These four papers are publicly available from the Bank's website, and also available as attachments with the TF report. As part of the capacity building exercises, I provided a lecture on imputing household consumption data in a summer school organized at Paris-Dauphine University, France, and contributed to a policy roundtable discussion on the topic of poverty measurement. Both the lecture and policy discussion were well received by the audience. Grant follow-up and structure Description and context of Grant: Expected follow up (if any): Comment on follow up: Internal Bank Report Page 2 of 7

3 We will further investigate these two areas in this coming FY. End Date of Last Site Visit: Restructuring of Grant: Activity Risk Rating: Negligible or Low Risk ( Original Risk Rating is Negligible or Low Risk ) Comment: None Critical Issues and Pending Actions for Management Attention There are currently no issues and actions for Management attention. PROGRAM Program Specific Ratings 1. Rate local capacity building impact. - Moderately Satisfactory 2. Rate country participation and ownership. - Not Applicable 3. Rate innovation and/or new knowledge creation. - Highly Satisfactory 4. Rate operational impact within the World Bank. - Highly Satisfactory 5. Rate policy impact in client countries. - Satisfactory 6. Rate cooperation among research and operational units in the World Bank. - Highly Satisfactory Program Specific Questions 1.1. Output Indicators. a) Number of published journal articles in this fiscal year(fy): b) Number of published working papers in this FY: c) Number of policy briefs, policy notes, policy research reports produced in this FY: d) Number of published book chapters in this FY: e) Number of analytical/computational tools produced in this FY: f) Number of databases produced in this FY, and in which how many are made openly and freely available to external researchers: g) Total number of peer-reviewed publications in this FY: h) Number of peer reviewed publications in this FY, 1)with a developing country researcher as one of the primary authors; 2)addressing gender issues: Please: 1) first provide Numbers to questions a)-h) above, then 2) add details that back up the numbers (List of outputs) a) 0 b) 4 c) 5 d) 1 e) 1 f) 0 g) 0 h) 0 B. Policy Research Working Papers Internal Bank Report Page 3 of 7

4 1.#Dang, Hai-Anh and Peter Lanjouw. (2015). #Toward a New Definition of Shared Prosperity: A Dynamic Perspective from Three Countries#. World Bank Policy Research Paper # 7294 (forthcoming as book chapter as noted above). 2.#Dang, Hai-Anh, and Peter Lanjouw. (2015). #Poverty Dynamics in India between : Insights from Longitudinal Analysis Using Synthetic Panel Data#. World Bank Policy Research Paper # 7270 (under review at Economic Development and Cultural Change). 3.#Dang, Hai-Anh, Peter Lanjouw, and Rob Swinkels. (2014). #Who Remained in Poverty, Who Moved Up, and Who Fell Down? An Investigation of Poverty Dynamics in Senegal in the 2000#s.# World Bank Policy Research Paper # 7141 (invited for review as a chapter in a book with Oxford University Press). 4.#Dang, Hai-Anh, Peter Lanjouw, and Umar Serajuddin. (2014). #Updating Poverty Estimates at Frequent Intervals in the Absence of Consumption Data: Methods and Illustration with Reference to a Middle-Income Country#, World Bank Policy Research Paper # (under review at American Journal of Agricultural Economics) C. Flagship Reports 1.#Dabalen, Andrew, Hai-Anh Dang, Isis Gaddis; Rose Mungai; Nga Thi Viet Nguyen; Shinya Takamatsu, Yele Maweki Batana, Yunsun Li, Wei Guo, Johannes G. Hoogeveen. (forthcoming). #Chapter 2: Revisiting Income Poverty Trends in Africa#. In Kathleen Beegle and Luc Christiaensen. Poverty in Africa: Revisiting the Facts. (Africa Regional flagship on poverty). 2.# Contributor to -#Renos Vakis, Jamele Rigolini and Leonardo Lucchetti. (2015). Left Behind: Chronic Poverty in Latin America and the Caribbean. (LAC Regional flagship on poverty). 3.#Dang, Hai-Anh, Peter Lanjouw, and Umar Serajuddin. (forthcoming). #Filling Gaps When Poverty Data Are Missing: Updating Poverty Estimates Frequently With Different Data Sources in Jordan#. In Tim Besley. (Eds). Conference Volume of the 17th World Congress of the International Economic Association. Palgrave MacMillan Press. 4.#Dang, Hai-Anh. (2015). #Measuring poverty dynamics without (actual) panel data: Could we square the circle?# Let#s Talk Development Blog. 5.#Dang, Hai-Anh. (2014). #How to overcome the (almost insurmountable) task of tracking poverty trends without good consumption data?# Development Impact Blog. D. Book Chapter Accepted for Publication 1.#Dang, Hai-Anh and Peter Lanjouw. (forthcoming). #Toward a New Definition of Shared Prosperity: A Dynamic Perspective from Three Countries#. In Kaushik Basu and Joseph Stiglitz. (Eds). Inequality and Growth: Patterns and Policy. Palgrave MacMillan. E. Public-access Software Programs 1.#Dang, Hai-Anh and Minh Cong Nguyen. (2014). "POVIMP: Stata module to provide poverty estimates in the absence of actual consumption data." Statistical Software Components S Boston College, Department of Economics. (this is a program that can be downloaded from either the given web link or within Stata that provide imputation-based poverty estimates in the absence of full consumption data) Dissemination Indicators a) Number of conferences/events organized in this FY: b) Number of conferences/events the project's results were presented at (in addition to the number in 2. a) in this FY: Please: 1) provide numbers to questions a) to b) above, then 2) elaborate what dissemination activities have been conducted to encourage knowledge sharing inside and outside the Bank? Elaborate your efforts to reach out to the policy advisers, if any. a) 0 b) 8 B. Presentation - Georgetown, Harvard, Oxford, Paris-Dauphine; International Association for Applied Econometrics conference. - Summer school and policy roundtable discussion on poverty measurement organized by EU NOPOOR project and Internal Bank Report Page 4 of 7

5 Paris-Dauphine university (participants at the roundtable discussion including academic researchers and the Director of UNESCO Institute for Statistics). - Technical support for other colleagues outside of the Bank (eg., FAO, AfDB) in application of synthetic panels data method Capacity Building Indicators a) Number of developing country researchers substantively engaged in this FY: b) Number of developing country institutions substantively engaged in this FY: Please: 1) provide Numbers to questions a) to b) above; then 2) elaborate the planned capacity building activities and the progress made so far (Is it implemented as planned? if not, please explain why and how it can be rectified). a) 0 b) 0 B. I plan to improve on the local capacity building component by providing more training activities in this coming year in developing countries Outcome Indicators a) Number of World Bank operational programs/projects with citations/references to the research findings funded by this project in this FY: b) Number of consultation and dissemination events attended by senior stakeholders in this FY: c) Number of cases demonstrating policy impact of the project within the World Bank in this FY: d) Does the project team involve both DEC and other Bank staff (Yes/No)? e) Has(is) the project went(going) through a broad stakeholder consultation process (Yes/No)? f) Does the project have a gender component (Yes/No)? Please: 1) provide Numbers or Yes/No to questions a) to f) above; and 2) add details that back up the numbers/answers you provided (list of WB programs/projects with citations/references to your research finding, list of events, describe cases that the project shows policy impact within the Bank, describe collaboration, etc). Identify specific operational areas in which the results of the project will influence and elaborate the progress that has been or is being made. a) 3 b) 3 c) 3 d) Yes e) Yes f) No A & B). I contributed to three regional flagship studies in this FY (2 completed and 1 still ongoing). These studies cite our methods and organized dissemination events that are attended by senior Bank management (e.g., GP Senior Director and Regional Chief Economists). 1.#Dabalen, Andrew, Hai-Anh Dang, Isis Gaddis; Rose Mungai; Nga Thi Viet Nguyen; Shinya Takamatsu, Yele Maweki Batana, Yunsun Li, Wei Guo, Johannes G. Hoogeveen. (forthcoming). #Chapter 2: Revisiting Income Poverty Trends in Africa#. In Kathleen Beegle and Luc Christiaensen. Poverty in Africa: Revisiting the Facts. (Africa Regional flagship on poverty). 2. Renos Vakis, Jamele Rigolini and Leonardo Lucchetti. (2015). Left Behind: Chronic Poverty in Latin America and the Caribbean. (LAC Regional flagship on poverty). 3. #Elena Ianchovichina. (ongoing). The Arab Inequality Puzzle. (MENA Regional flagship on poverty and inequality) Impact Indicators a) Total number of citations of research findings of this project in this FY: b) Number of citations/references to the project's work in PARTNER GOVERNMENT's programs and policy documents in this FY: Internal Bank Report Page 5 of 7

6 c) Number of cases demonstrating policy impact in partner governments in this FY: d) Number of users of computational/analytical tools developed under this program in this FY: Please 1) provide Numbers to questions a) to d) above; and 2) provide details that back up the numbers (list of citations (sources), list of Government programs/projects with citations/references to your research finding, describe cases that the project shows policy impact in client countries). Identify specific policy areas in which the results of the project will influence and elaborate the progress that has been or is being made. a) 10 b) 1 c) 0 d) 28 A. & B). This is a rough estimates from Google Scholar citation and different Bank reports including IEG Poverty Review report (2015), Costa Rica's Systematic Country Diagnostics (2015), Report on Poverty and Shared Prosperity in LAC (2015). D). This is a rough estimate based on the number of downloads of our poverty imputation software on REPEC Highlight any success stories, preliminary findings, and lessons learned I am very grateful for the support provided by the SRP. With these resources, I could provide cross support to regional flagships on poverty and inequality in several different regions (AFR, LAC, MENA), and national poverty assessment reports (India, Jordan and Senegal). This work is much appreciated by the country teams and our colleagues in the Poverty GP, and will be continued in FY PROCESSING Manager's comments on this GRM report: Date:11/05/2015 User ID:WB Name:Mr Francisco H. G. Ferreira Operation performed: by Manager. GRM report history - Requested on 06/30/2015,due on 07/21/2015 Action Name Status Date Created Hai-Anh H. Dang Draft 07/20/2015 Changed Hai-Anh H. Dang Draft 07/20/2015 Changed Hai-Anh H. Dang Draft 07/20/2015 Changed Hai-Anh H. Dang Draft 07/20/2015 Submitted for Approval Hai-Anh H. Dang Submitted 07/20/2015 Roll backed from Submitted to Draft Bintao Wang Draft 10/02/2015 Submitted for Approval Hai-Anh H. Dang Submitted 10/22/2015 by Manager Francisco H. G. Ferreira 11/05/2015 Internal Bank Report Page 6 of 7

7 DOCUMENTS List of documents attached to this GRM 1) GRM Report DISBURSEMENTS Disbursements Summary in USD Date From Date To Planned Cumulative Planned Period Actual Cumulative Actual Period 07/01/ /31/ /01/ /30/ , , /01/ /31/ /01/ /30/ /01/ /31/ INTERNAL COMMENTS Date:11/05/2015 User ID:WB Name:Mr Francisco H. G. Ferreira Operation performed: by Manager. Date:10/22/2015 User ID:WB Name:Mr Hai-Anh H. Dang Operation performed:mail Sent to PM Dear Chico, I submitted this TF report to Eileen Monnin-Kinby (our temporary resource manager) in July, but the TF administrator just asked me to submit to you again for your clearance. If you need any additional information, please just let me know then. Many thanks, Hai anh Date:10/02/2015 User ID:WB Name:Mr Bintao Wang Operation performed:roll backed from Submitted to Draft Hai Anh, Eileen has left the Bank, I'm rooling back your GRM report. Please resubmit it to your current manager. Thanks, Bintao Internal Bank Report Page 7 of 7