Corporacion Andina de Fomento

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1 Primary Credit Analyst: Lisa M Schineller, PhD, New York (1) ; Secondary Contact: Elie Heriard Dubreuil, London (44) ; Research Contributor: Maximillian M Mcgraw, New York; Table Of Contents Major Rating Factors Rationale Outlook Stand-Alone Credit Profile: 'aa-' Business Profile: Strong Policy Importance Assessment Governance And Management Expertise Financial Profile: Very Strong Capital Adequacy Earnings Risk Position Loss Experience OCTOBER 25,

2 Table Of Contents (cont.) Funding And Liquidity Likelihood Of Extraordinary Shareholder Support Related Criteria And Research OCTOBER 25,

3 Major Rating Factors Strengths: A "strong" business profile and "very strong" financial profile support the bank's 'aa-' stand-alone credit profile; Historical preferred creditor treatment (PCT) and ongoing capital contributions underpin unsurpassed shareholder support and a 17% risk adjusted capital (RAC) ratio after adjustments; and Prudent financial management and policies. Counterparty Credit Rating Foreign Currency AA-/Stable/A-1+ Weaknesses: A loan portfolio with single-name concentration and exposure to governments with unorthodox policies; and Liquidity that is lower than that of some higher rated peers. Rationale Standard & Poor's Ratings Services' ratings on Corporacion Andina de Fomento (CAF) reflect our assessment of the bank's "strong" business profile and "very strong" financial profile, as our criteria define these terms (see "Multilateral Lending Institutions And Other Supranational Institutions Ratings Methodology," published Nov. 26, 2012). We assess CAF's stand-alone credit profile at 'aa-'. The issuer credit ratings do not incorporate any extraordinary shareholder support from callable capital because CAF's member shareholders are all rated lower than CAF. Since CAF was established in 1968 to foster the economic integration of its founding members in the Andean region, its membership base has expanded significantly. CAF now has 18 member shareholder countries, up from five at its inception in As a result, it has evolved from being a subregional lending institution into an increasingly important regional one. CAF has had repeated success in raising paid-in capital--with on-time and often early payments--from its expanded membership base. Its paid-in capital totaled US$4.4 billion at year-end up by US$450 million from 2011 and by US$2.2 billion since 2007, when paid-in capital totaled US$2.2 billion. The higher figure reflected various capital increases by both the five original shareholders and other members. Argentina, Brazil, Panama, Paraguay, and Uruguay achieved full-membership status in either 2010 or Members pledged to increase paid-in capital by a total of US$6 billion from 2008 to 2017, with payment underway. This includes the most recent US$2 billion general capital increase the board of directors agreed to in November In 2012, Trinidad and Tobago initiated the process of becoming a full-member shareholder, and Mexico made an extraordinary capital contribution. CAF projects annual contributions of more than US$700 million on average through Our assessment of CAF's business profile as "strong" reflects the strength of its relationship with its shareholders, as demonstrated by this track record of successive increases in paid-in capital. This underscores the franchise value the expanded shareholder base affords CAF, as it has proven a consistent net lender in economic downturns. We believe OCTOBER 25,

4 that its unsurpassed PCT will extend to its new full shareholders as well, though this has not been tested in a downturn, and would be maintained should CAF request net repayment from its borrowing member governments. Our appraisal of CAF's governance incorporates the absence of a wide set of nonborrowing member countries, a weakness relative to higher-rated multilateral institutions (MLIs). It also reflects CAF's solid institutional bylaws and risk practices, as well as a dividend policy that retains most earnings to provide for solid growth. CAF's "very strong" financial profile reflects its capital adequacy and its funding and liquidity. Standard & Poor's primary metric to assess capital adequacy of all financial institutions is its RAC ratio. At year-end 2012, CAF's ratio was 26% before Standard & Poor's MLI-specific adjustments and 17% after taking into account such adjustments. For CAF, the predominant additional charge is a single-name concentration in its sovereign exposures, which is partially offset by our expectation for continuing PCT. As of December 2012, about 74% of its loan portfolio was concentrated in five sovereign exposures: Argentina, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, and Venezuela. An important recent change is that the top five now includes Argentina, which jumped to the fourth-largest exposure (from sixth in 2010), pushing Bolivia to sixth largest. However, overall concentration in the top five is down from more than 90% prior to CAF expects that loan concentration will continue to diminish slowly as CAF increasingly lends to new members. About 43% of loan approvals in 2011 and 2012 were to newly subscribed core shareholders, up from 38% in Our funding and liquidity assessment reflects the fact that CAF conducts its Treasury operations and asset and liability management prudently. Our funding ratios indicate that CAF is able to cover its scheduled short-term debt reimbursements without issuing new debt. CAF is a frequent issuer in the global markets. So far in 2013, CAF has issued 12 bond issues totaling US$2 billion across the U.S., Europe, Asia, and Australia, following 12 bond issues totaling US$2.7 billion in CAF has lower liquidity ratios than some other higher-rated MLIs'. However, under our liquidity stress scenario, at the one-year time horizon, assets and liabilities would fully cover liabilities and most scheduled loan disbursements. Outlook The rating outlook on CAF is stable, indicating that we believe there is less than a one-in-three chance of an upgrade or downgrade within the next two years. For Standard & Poor's to consider raising the ratings, CAF would have to either diversify its shareholding base materially in terms of highly rated nonborrowing members, or sharply increase its RAC ratio after adjustments. On the other hand, we could lower our ratings on CAF if--contrary to our expectations--its liquidity ratios that we calculate decline (as a result of, for example, a greater reliance on short-term debt), its RAC ratio after adjustments falls below 15% (perhaps because of faster loan growth), or its borrowing members under stress do not treat it as a preferred creditor. Stand-Alone Credit Profile: 'aa-' We assess CAF's stand-alone credit profile at 'aa-', reflecting the bank's "strong" business profile and "very strong" financial profile. OCTOBER 25,

5 Business Profile: Strong In our opinion, CAF has a "strong" business profile. This opinion reflects our assessment of CAF's policy importance and support from its shareholders as well as its governance. Policy Importance Assessment With regard to CAF's policy importance, we note the following strengths: CAF was established in 1968 by a Constitutive Agreement ("the Agreement") to foster the economic integration of its founding members in the Andean region. Its membership base has expanded greatly since then. CAF has evolved from a subregional lending institution into an increasingly important regional one. The bank now has 18 member shareholder countries, from five original Andean member countries at its inception. CAF has an exceptional history of PCT. Ongoing shareholder support in terms of capital increases and a track record on losses support this view. CAF's membership has expanded significantly in recent years. It now has 10 full, or core, member shareholder countries and eight associate member shareholder countries in Latin America and the Caribbean. Full membership corresponds with a larger share of CAF's paid-in capital. That brings along with it greater ability to borrow from CAF and greater voting privileges at the board; the section on Governance and Management Expertise discusses this in further detail. CAF has three different classes of shares (A, B, and C), with full-member shareholder countries having A (and B) shares; associate member countries have no A shares. As of year-end 2012, the five original Series A shareholders collectively owned 68.2% of CAF's paid-in capital (down from 77.2% in 2009 when membership expansion accelerated). Colombia, Peru, and Venezuela each owned approximately 19%. Ecuador and Bolivia each owned approximately 5.4%. The next-largest shareholders included Argentina (8.8%), Brazil (8.1%), Spain (3.6%), and Uruguay (2.6%). Of these, Spain was a Series C shareholder at the end of Other Series C shareholders included Chile, Costa Rica, Jamaica, Mexico, Trinidad and Tobago, and the Dominican Republic. Fourteen financial institutions based in the Andean countries (which are Series B shareholders) collectively owned 0.1%. In 2010, Brazil, Panama, and Uruguay were represented on the board as full Series A members, followed by Argentina and Paraguay in As of 2010, Portugal became a Series C shareholder. In 2012, Trinidad and Tobago initiated the process of becoming a full member. In 2012, Mexico increased its Series C capital contributions as well. Several years ago, Guatemala and Italy signed letters of intent to become Series C shareholders. CAF has proven a consistent net lender in economic downturns, securing it exceptional shareholder support, which we expect to continue. A long history of regular capital contributions, together with PCT in times of financial stress, are the best objective evidence of shareholder support for an MLI. By these criteria, CAF's shareholder support is among the strongest among rated MLIs. OCTOBER 25,

6 CAF has had repeated success in raising paid-in capital--with on-time and often early payments--from its expanded membership base. The bank's paid-in capital has increased 14% per year over the past five years, accounting for 64% of shareholder's equity in 2012, up from 54% in The increase reflects capital contributions from its five original member countries and its expanding membership base. CAF signed subscription agreements with Argentina, Brazil, Panama, Paraguay, and Uruguay that included commitments to raise paid-in capital by a total of US$1.5 billion between 2008 and 2014, as these countries transitioned out of Series C membership to full-membership status. In 2010, Brazil, Panama, and Uruguay became full members, and in 2011, so did Argentina and Paraguay. In August 2009, in another demonstration of strong shareholder support, CAF's directors approved a general capital increase of US$2.5 billion for As part of this process, Spain decided to consolidate its Series C participation. It signed a subscription agreement for a US$327 million increase in its equity participation, to reach 5% participation in 2014 (versus its 2.5% share as of December 2009). In November 2011, the directors approved another US$2 billion general capital increase for Full member countries (Argentina, Brazil, Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay, and Venezuela) agreed to contribute US$1.6 billion, with the remaining US$400 million to be available for Series C shareholders. In 2012, Trinidad and Tobago applied for full-membership status, and Mexico raised its Series C contribution by US$100 million. CAF lends predominately to the public sector. Until 1992, CAF lent only to public-sector entities, generally with sovereign guarantees. Following a change in policy, it sharply increased loans to the private sector to nearly 40% of outstanding loans as of year-end CAF subsequently refocused on the public sector. Public-sector loans increased to more than 90% of outstanding loans as of year-end Since then, they trended down, averaging 81% of the loan portfolio during the past five years, and stood at 84% as of year-end CAF has not written off any public-sector loans. Moreover, the corporation has never suffered arrears on payments of interest or principal exceeding 90 days on a public-sector loan. This is in contrast with the World Bank and Inter-American Development Bank (IADB), to which Peru went into much longer arrears during the 1980s while remaining current with CAF. Along with other MLIs, CAF did grant Bolivia debt relief as part of the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) initiative led by the International Monetary Fund. In turn, CAF was compensated for its participation by donations from advanced economies and by Bolivia giving up a portion of its shareholder rights. With respect to private-sector loans, CAF has suffered payment arrears exceeding 90 days. It also has restructured such loans and has even taken write-offs. We note that none of the problems CAF has experienced with its private-sector loans have resulted from a private-sector borrower's inability to service its loans from CAF because of the effects of exchange controls. In this respect as well, CAF's member countries have historically afforded it PCT. We believe that its exceptional history of PCT will extend to its new full shareholders as well, though this has not been tested in a downturn, and would be maintained should CAF request net repayment from its borrowing member OCTOBER 25,

7 governments. Governance And Management Expertise With regard to CAF's government and management expertise, we note the following: CAF has solid institutional bylaws, governance and risk practices, and a dividend policy that retains most earnings to provide for solid growth. However, our appraisal of CAF's governance incorporates the absence of a wide set of nonborrowing member countries, a weakness relative to higher-rated MLIs. Under CAF's Constitutive Agreement, the ultimate decision-making forum is the shareholders' annual regular meeting. At this meeting, the shareholders review CAF's financial statements, allocate net income, elect the board of directors, determine members' compensation, and appoint external auditors, among other matters. The board of directors establishes CAF's credit and economic policies, approves its budget, approves loans in excess of a specified amount, and appoints the executive president, CAF's chief executive officer. L. Enrique Garcia took the office in December 1991 and began his fifth five-year term in The board of directors usually meets four times a year and delegates certain responsibilities, including credit approvals within specified limits, to an executive committee of the board. The executive president chairs this committee, which comprises one director from each of the Series A countries (see below) and one director representing the collective Series C members. These arrangements make CAF's decision-making process more streamlined than that at some other MLIs. CAF's three different classes of shares (A, B, and C) come with different entitlements for electing directors to its board. As CAF's membership has grown substantially over the years, there have been changes to the Constitutive Agreement. In 2005, an amendment to the Agreement permitted countries other than the five founding Series A shareholders to become Series A and B shareholders. Series A shares are owned by the government of a member country and may be held or transferred to a public, semipublic, or private institution established for social and public purposes within the country, as designated by the member country's government. Series A members each elect one member to the board. Series B shares are available for subscription by member governments or public, semipublic, or private entities of the member countries. However, the equity participation of private entities may not exceed 49% of the Series B holdings of the respective member country. Series B shareholders are collectively entitled to elect five directors. Series C shares are eligible for subscription by legal entities or natural persons outside the member countries, and as a group they are entitled to elect two directors to the board. Finally, the banking and financial entities of full-member shareholder countries elect one director. CAF's head office is in Caracas, Venezuela, and it maintains offices in each of the other original full-member shareholder countries. In addition, it has offices in Argentina, Brazil, Panama, Paraguay, Spain, and Uruguay. The Panamanian and Uruguayan offices serve as regional hubs for credit analysis in the region. CAF is in the process of opening representative offices in Mexico and Trinidad and Tobago. The Madrid office serves as a bridge between Europe and Latin America. According to CAF's Agreement, loans, guarantees, and equity investments may not exceed 400% of the corporation's OCTOBER 25,

8 shareholders' equity. In practice, CAF operates well below that limit. At year-end 2012, this ratio was 245% compared with 241% in 2011, 245% in 2010, and 226% in Total loans to a public-sector or mixed-capital entity that CAF does not consider a sovereign risk are limited to 15% of shareholders' equity, and total loans to any private-sector entity are limited to 10% of shareholders' equity. CAF inevitably has country risk concentration, despite its increasing membership. Its current policies mandate that exposure (loans, guarantees, equity and securities investments or purpose-related exposure [PRE]) to a single country not exceed either 25% of total exposure or 100% of CAF's shareholders' equity (whichever is less) for founding full-member shareholding countries. Nonfounding full-member shareholder members have a 15% exposure limit as a share of total PRE. Aggregate loans to entities in any associate shareholder country may not exceed 8x of that country's paid-in capital contributions plus any assets entrusted to CAF under a fiduciary relationship, and they may not exceed 5% of CAF's exposure. In addition, no more than 4x a country's paid-in capital contributions plus assets under a fiduciary relationship may be committed to operations essentially national in character. CAF is able to make equity investments totaling up to 10% of its shareholders' equity. CAF's equity investment in a single company is limited to 1% of its own shareholders' equity and ordinarily cannot exceed 20% of the individual company's own shareholders' equity. CAF's policies on problem loans are stricter than those of most MLIs. The corporation classifies a loan as overdue when a payment of interest or principal is not made on the due date, and interest (including 2% penalty interest) on past-due amounts begins to accrue immediately. At the same time, disbursements on all loans to the borrower, and to any other borrower for which that borrower is guarantor, are suspended. Private-sector loans enter nonaccrual status no later than 90 days after the due date, and public-sector loans no later than 180 days. Unlike most MLIs, CAF pays a dividend. This permits its commercial financial institution shareholders to report a profit on their equity investments in CAF. However, since the dividend is a stock dividend, it has no effect on total shareholders' equity (it merely increases the paid-in capital component of CAF's shareholders' equity). Like many other MLIs, CAF also makes annual distributions from its retained earnings to a variety of development-related funds. These include the Fund for Human Development, which targets the neediest rural sectors in member countries. CAF, like other MLIs, does not vary the pricing of sovereign loans of comparable maturities from country to country. However, unlike some other MLIs, CAF charges higher spreads for longer-maturity loans. Currently, CAF applies a spread of 255 basis points (bps) over six month LIBOR for a sovereign loan of nine to 12 years. With higher spreads on loans and somewhat higher funding costs, the "all-in" cost of CAF's sovereign loans is substantially higher than that of other MLIs such as the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development and the IADB. CAF's members had generally viewed loans from the corporation as complementary to those from the larger MLIs. However, in recent years, borrowings from CAF by full-member shareholder countries--and increasingly by associated shareholder countries--have increased with respect to those from other MLIs. The spread CAF charges on nonsovereign project loans is based on various factors, including the borrower's credit quality, the industry in which it operates, and its country of domicile, as well as the tenor of the loan. Up-front fees are OCTOBER 25,

9 usually higher than for public-sector loans (currently 60 bps for a three- to five-year loan, versus 25 bps for a sovereign three- to five-year loan). Commitment fees are 35 bps per year for public-sector loans and 50 bps for nonsovereign project loans. In addition, the spreads vary for nonsovereign borrowers from 90 bps over LIBOR for up to three months, 115 bps for a loan between three and six months for financial-sector borrowers, and 520 bps over LIBOR for a corporate loan of nine to 10 years. Financial Profile: Very Strong In our opinion, CAF has a "very strong" financial profile, based on our assessment of the bank's capital adequacy and funding and liquidity profile. Capital Adequacy Capital and earnings CAF prepares its financial statements according to U.S. generally accepted accounting principles. Table 1 summarizes CAF's balance sheet and key off-balance-sheet items. Table 1 CAF Summary Balance Sheet (Mil. US$) --Year ended Dec Assets Cash, due from banks, deposits,and other investments 1,733 1,896 1,670 1,471 1, Securities purchased under resale agreements Marketable securities, trading 5,453 3,760 2,457 2,214 1, Marketable securities, held-to-maturity ,100 Gross loans outstanding 16,355 14,981 13,783 11,687 10,184 9,548 Allowance for losses on loans (126) (131) (141) (144) (143) (168) Equity investments Interest and commissions receivable Other assets, net Total assets 24,604 21,535 18,547 15,887 14,212 12,589 Liabilities Deposits 3,122 3,672 2,739 2,651 2,773 1,521 Commercial paper 3,175 1,977 1,524 1, Advances and short-term borrowings Bonds 9,743 8,072 7,213 5,699 5,147 4,637 Borrowings and other obligations 1,391 1, Derivative Instruments N.A. N.A. N.A. Other liabilities Total liabilities 17,739 15,184 12,794 10,600 9,658 8,463 OCTOBER 25,

10 Table 1 CAF Summary Balance Sheet (cont.) Capital Paid-in capital 3,637 3,229 2,814 2,486 2,176 2,015 Additional paid-in capital Reserves and retained earnings 2,446 2,382 2,323 2,262 2,097 1,878 Shareholders' equity 6,865 6,351 5,753 5,287 4,554 4,127 Memo item: Guarantees outstanding N.A.--Not available. Table 2 provides Standard & Poor's RAC ratio. The RAC before MLI-specific adjustments, 26% as of year-end 2012, is based on our standard framework used for commercial banks (see "Bank Capital Methodology And Assumptions," published Dec. 6, 2010, for a full explanation), which includes risk charges calibrated to our view of a 'A' stress scenario (as described in "Understanding Standard & Poor's Rating Definitions," published June 3, 2009). Table 2 CAF's Risk Adjusted Capital Framework Data Exposure (Mil. US$) Standard & Poor's RWA (Mil. US$) Average S&P RW (%) Credit Risk Government and central banks 17,463 17, Institutions 7,033 2, Corporate 2,251 2, Securitization Other assets 1, Total credit risk 27,949 23, Market Risk Equity in the Banking Book 240 2,421 1,010 Trading Book Market Risk N/A 0 N/A Total market risk N/A 2,421 N/A Operational Risk Total operational risk N/A 468 N/A RWA before MLI adjustments 26, MLI Adjustments Industry and geographic diversification (2,628) (10) Preferred Creditor Treatment (4,933) (19) Single-name concentration 22, High risk exposure cap (1,012) (4) Total MLI adjustments 14, RWA after MLI adjustments 40, Adjusted Common Equity S&P RAC ratio Capital ratio before adjustments 6, Capital ratio after adjustments 6, OCTOBER 25,

11 Table 2 CAF's Risk Adjusted Capital Framework Data (cont.) MLI--Multilateral lending institution. RW--Risk weighting. RWA--Risk-weighted assets. N/A--Not applicable. In 2012, the corporation's total assets increased by 14.1%, to US$ billion, and gross loans increased by 9.2%, to US$ billion (see table 1). The increase in total assets moderated slightly from the five-year average growth of 15.6% ( ). Loan growth picked up slightly versus 2011 (when it increased by 8.7%), but was slower compared with the same previous five-year average of 13.2%. Paid-in capital and shareholders' equity totaled US$4.419 billion and US$6.835 billion, respectively, at year-end Paid-in capital rose by 11.3% in 2012 on increased capital contributions by shareholder countries; shareholders' equity increased 8.1%. This compared with average growth of 13.4% and 11.5% for both of these measures, respectively, during CAF's activities can be broken down into Treasury activities (which generate holdings of deposits, securities, and derivatives) as well as borrowings and development-related activities (which generate holdings of loans and equity investments and the issuance of guarantees). Purpose-related exposure (PRE) Purpose-related activities--loans, guarantees, and equity and securities investments--constitute most of the risk borne by CAF. CAF's exposure to its borrowing members is essentially through its loan portfolio, with a much smaller amount of guarantees, equity investments, or holdings of their securities. Table 3 CAF Loans and Equity Investments --Year ended Dec (Mil. US$, unless otherwise indicated) Loan and equity investment approvals 9,275 10,066 10,533 9,171 7,926 6,607 Loan and equity investment disbursements 4,969 7,168 7,694 4,584 5,111 5,844 Loans and equity investments outstanding 16,502 15,093 13,878 11,765 10,258 9,621 Public sector as a % of total loans and equity investments: Approvals Disbursements Outstandings Public sector loans as a % of total loans outstanding Outstanding loans by industry (% total): Transport, warehousing, communications Social and other infrastructure programs Electricity, gas and water Commercial banks Development banks Agriculture, hunting, forestry Manufacturing Mining, quarry production Other Transport, warehousing, communication, electricity, gas & water OCTOBER 25,

12 Table 3 CAF Loans and Equity Investments (cont.) Utilities (above) plus social/infrastructure Commercial and Development Bank Loans Historically, CAF's lending has focused on national and multinational projects, especially those involving electricity, gas and water supply, transportation, or communications. Lending to these core areas constituted 69% of the portfolio at year-end 2012, up significantly from 43% in 2007, as infrastructure lending has increased across the member countries. CAF also makes loans for social and other infrastructure, which constituted 19% of the portfolio in 2012; this share of the portfolio has declined over the past five years as lending to the core areas has risen. In addition to direct project loans, CAF provides credit lines to other financial institutions in full-member shareholder countries to support projects that fall within CAF's overall objectives but are too small to qualify for direct lending. When making these loans, CAF accepts the credit risk of the financial intermediary, which is responsible for repaying CAF's loan regardless of the project's performance. CAF also has recourse to the underlying borrower if the financial intermediary defaults. During the 1990s, CAF provided a substantial amount of trade financing and other loans directly to private-sector entities. These activities had diminished relative to project financing in recent years but increased sharply in Since then, they have declined somewhat. CAF's gross outstanding loans to the financial sector, including commercial and development banks, accounted for 10% of total loans as of year-end 2012, versus 18.2% in 2007, and are in line with approximately 10% in previous years. Because of the continuing emphasis on longer-term project loans, CAF's average loan maturities remain longer than several years ago. The average loan maturity was 5.9 years at year-end 2012, versus 6.1 years at year-end 2011 and 5.7 years at year-end The average remains greater than the 4.5 years at year-end Loans with remaining maturities of more than five years accounted for 48% of the total in 2012 and 2011, up from 44% in 2010 and 2009, and up from about 40% in 2007 and 2008 (and compared with less than 29% at year-end 2003). CAF PRE also includes some equity investments. CAF's outstanding equity investments totaled US$147 million at year-end 2012 (up from US$112 million at year-end 2011), representing 2.1% of total shareholders' equity. Investment funds (as opposed to direct investments) accounted for US$108.2 million (74%) of CAF's equity investments in This share has risen from 69% in 2011 and 58% in Equity investments, either direct or through investment funds, are currently not a priority for CAF's management and shareholders. Treasury activities CAF does not regard its Treasury activities as a source of significant income for the corporation. Rather, the corporation intends for the activities to fund its assets and to ensure sufficient liquidity in the most cost-effective manner. Because of this, CAF contains its Treasury-related credit, interest-rate, and exchange-rate risk within narrow limits. Credit risk. CAF's liquidity policy requires that at least 90% of its liquid assets be held in securities rated 'A-' or better. This figure was 92% at year-end 2012 with an overall average 'AA' rating for the portfolio. The remaining liquid assets may be held in speculative-grade instruments rated no lower than 'B-'. CAF holds deposits with banks rated 'A-' or OCTOBER 25,

13 better and holds deposits in the head offices or U.S. branches, rather than in regional member countries. Similarly, counterparties for CAF's derivatives transactions are rated 'A' or better. These requirements are somewhat weaker than those of some higher-rated MLIs. This may reflect CAF's higher funding costs and the fact that the bank seeks to offset these higher funding costs by holding slightly riskier liquid assets. Interest-rate risk. CAF is primarily a floating-rate lender. More than 99% of its loans were floating rate as of year-end 2012 (as they have been since 2006). With about half of its total borrowings at fixed rates, CAF employs swaps to closely match its fixed-rate borrowings with its floating-rate loans to contain its interest-rate risk. It formally documents all relationships between hedging instruments and hedged items, which allows it to use hedge accounting and to keep derivatives almost entirely off its balance sheet. Counterparties for CAF's derivatives transactions are rated 'A+' or better or have a collateral agreement. Exchange-rate risk. CAF traditionally has been a U.S.-dollar lender, but it is open to lending in other currencies. As of year-end 2012, loans in foreign currencies (Bolivian bolivianos, Colombian pesos, Paraguaian guarani, and Peruvian nuevos soles) totaled US$57.3 million--a mere 0.3% of total loans. We expect non-u.s.-dollar transactions to remain a very small part of CAF's loan portfolio, even over the medium term. Although CAF's capital and most of its borrowings are denominated in U.S. dollars, CAF had about US$3.7 billion in non-dollar-denominated bonds and other borrowings and obligations outstanding as of year-end These were swapped into U.S. dollars. As of year-end 2012, 98.2% of borrowings after swaps were denominated in U.S. dollars. Therefore, the risk of significant losses arising from CAF's Treasury-related activities appears small. Earnings Like other MLIs, CAF does not seek to maximize income. But it has reported a net profit in every year since Table 4 CAF Net Income (Mil. US$ unless otherwise indicated) --Year ended Dec Total interest income Total interest expense (282) (213) (173) (189) (328) (414) Credit (provisions) for loan losses Net interest income after provisions for loan losses Noninterest income Noninterest expense (92) (90) (85) (49) (72) (39) of which: Administrative expense (91) (81) (70) (63) (56) (51) Net income Memo items: Return on average assets + guarantees (%) Return on average shareholders' equity (%) Contributions to special funds In 2012, its net income increased to US$160 million from US$153 million in 2011, primarily because of increasing net OCTOBER 25,

14 interest income after provisions. Net interest income remains below the 10-year historical average but increased during the past two years. A compressed net interest margin resulted in CAF's operating return on average assets plus guarantees falling to 0.7% in 2012 from 0.8% in 2011 and 1.0% in Similarly, CAF's operating return on average equity fell to 2.4% from 2.5% and 3.0% over this same period. In general, returns on average shareholders' equity have trended down during the past five years and are expected to remain low as long as LIBOR does. CAF's board of directors has historically referenced three different benchmarks with respect to returns on equity: the U.S. inflation rate (meeting that target would maintain the real value of members' equity contributions), the U.S. dollar six-month LIBOR rate, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury rate. In 2012, distributions from net income to CAF's development funds totaled US$97 million, compared with US$94 million in 2011 and US$105 million in Risk Position The MLI-adjusted RAC is based on our calculation of the RAC after adjustments (to our risk weights) for the amount of diversification and expected PCT (see table 2). At fiscal year-end 2012, our MLI-adjusted RAC ratio for CAF was 17%. For CAF, the key adjustments are concentration of the sovereign loan portfolio, which increases the RAC, and the expected benefit CAF would receive from PCT that partially mitigates that risk. Table 5 CAF Loan, Equity Investment, and Guarantee Portfolio Country Concentration --Year ended Dec Largest country exposure/rating Largest Peru/BBB Peru/BBB Ecuador/B- Ecuador/CCC+ Ecuador/SD Ecuador/B- Mil. US$ 2,865 2,676 2,437 2,052 2,063 2,195 % total loans, equity investments, and guarantees Second largest Venezuela/B+ Venezuela/B+ Peru/BBB- Peru/BBB- Peru/BBB- Peru/BB+ Mil. US$ 2,816 2,652 2,275 1,898 1,802 1,837 % total loans, equity investments, and guarantees Third largest Ecuador/B Ecuador/B- Venezuela/BB- Venezuela/BB- Colombia/BB+ Colombia/BB+ Mil. US$ 2,649 2,509 2,228 1,766 1,708 1,636 % total loans, equity investments, and guarantees Fourth largest Argentina/B- Argentina/B Colombia/BB+ Colombia/BB+ Venezuela/BB- Venezuela/BB- Mil. US$ 2,151 1,948 1,969 1,689 1,535 1,470 % total loans, equity investments, and guarantees Fifth largest Colombia/BBB- Colombia/BBB- Bolivia/B Bolivia/B- Bolivia/B- Bolivia/B- Mil. US$ 1,849 1,826 1,414 1,270 1,237 1,175 % total loans, equity investments, and guarantees OCTOBER 25,

15 Table 5 CAF Loan, Equity Investment, and Guarantee Portfolio Country Concentration (cont.) Memo items: Two largest country exposures (% of total) Three largest country exposures (% of total) Four largest country exposures (% of total) Five largest country exposures (% of total) Sum of largest 5 country exposure (Mil. US$) ,330 11,611 10,324 8,674 8,345 8,313 Exposure concentration Single-name concentration: The country concentration in CAF's portfolio is high. Single-name concentration is the single-largest adjustment in the RAC (see table 2). Concentration in CAF's portfolio remains high, though lower than it has been historically (see table 5). During 2009 to 2012, CAF's single-largest exposure represented about 17% of total loans, equity investments, and guarantees (or development-related exposure [DRE] that excludes small holdings of bonds from borrowing members). In comparison, before 2006, the single-largest exposure was about 25% of DRE. Last year, its top exposure was to Peru, equaling 17.1% of its total DRE at year-end 2012, followed closely by Venezuela with 16.8% of DRE. In the previous two years, the top exposure was to Ecuador (which dropped to No. 3 in 2011), followed by Peru. The second section of table 5 shows the percentages of total exposure that the second-, third-, fourth-, and fifth-largest country exposures account for. For instance, exposure to Peru and Venezuela together represented 34% of total exposure at year-end much lower than the almost 50% share to the top two in 2005 and prior years. The exposure to the top five is about 74%, down substantially from 90% in 2006 and prior years. CAF continues to diversify its lending activities beyond its original full-membership base. As of year-end 2011, the original full-member countries (Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, and Venezuela) no longer accounted for the five-largest country exposures. Argentina has moved into the top five, with the fourth-largest share of CAF's DRE in 2011 and Loss Experience Table 6 CAF Portfolio Quality --Year ended Dec (Mil. US$ unless otherwise indicated) Accounting measures of portfolio quality and provisioning Impaired loans As a % of outstanding loans Income not collected from nonaccrual loans Loans written off OCTOBER 25,

16 Table 6 CAF Portfolio Quality (cont.) As a % of outstanding loans at previous year end * * Loan recoveries Provisions (release of provisions) for losses on loans and equity investments (5) (12) (3) (2) (23) (23) Allowance for losses on loans As a multiple of nonaccrual loans (x) N.M. N.M. N.M. N.M. As a % of total loans Distribution of purpose-related exposure by rating of country of exposure 'A-' and above (% total) 'BBB+', 'BBB', and 'BBB-' (% total) * 'BB+', 'BB', and 'BB-' (% total) 'B+', 'B', and 'B-' (% total) CCC+ and SD (% total) N.M. Not meaningful, due to division by 0. *Less than 0.05%. The negative adjustment to the RAC is offset partially by the benefit of PCT that its borrowing member governments have and we believe will continue to afford the bank. As noted in the section on Policy Importance, CAF has an unsurpassed track record of having received preferential treatment on its sovereign-guaranteed loan portfolio. We assume this track record will hold moving forward despite the fairly high degree of default risk embedded in its portfolio. And we assume this track record will extend to its new full shareholders as well, while still untested. Argentina is the bank's fourth-largest exposure, and our very low speculative-grade rating on the country reflects our opinion of a high risk of default on its commercial debt. CAF's loan portfolio has performed exceptionally well historically and appears to be adequately provisioned. At year-end 2012, CAF's reserve for loan losses was US$126 million, or 0.8% of total loans. In 2012, CAF released US$5 million in loan loss provisions, compared with US$12 million in 2011 and US$3 million in At year-end 2012, CAF had one loan of US$7.851 million to a private-sector borrower classified as impaired and in nonaccrual status; in 2011, this same loan was already classified as impaired and in nonaccrual status. During the second quarter of 2013, the loan was restructured and is now performing; there were no loans classified as impaired and in nonaccrual status as of June 30, Funding And Liquidity Our funding and liquidity assessment reflects the fact that CAF conducts its Treasury operations and asset and liability management prudently, though with funding and liquidity ratios below the average of peer MLIs. Funding CAF's funding ratios indicate that the bank would be able to fulfill its mandate for at least one year without access to the capital markets. Moreover, we estimate that the bank is structurally able to cover its scheduled short-term debt repayments and scheduled loan disbursements (under one year) without recourse to new issuance. Qualitatively, we view CAF's funding program as very diversified by both geographic market and type of investor: CAF OCTOBER 25,

17 frequently issues in many markets and currencies. Seventy four percent of CAF's funding came from international capital markets, with 56% from bond issuance alone. Deposits from institutional investors accounted for 18% of total funding, and commercial paper accounted for another 18%. Medium- and long-term lines of credit and other borrowings accounted for the remaining 8%. As of Sept. 30, 2013, CAF had raised US$2.0 billion in 12 bonds across the U.S., Europe, Asia, and Australia, following 12 bond issues totaling US$2.7 billion in Besides U.S. dollars, the bank has issued in euros, Japanese Yen, Swiss Francs; it also issued in Hong Kong dollars, the Taiwanese dollar, and the Chinese reminbi for the first time in In Latin America, it has issued in Colombian pesos, Mexican pesos, Peruvian nuevos soles, and Venezuelan bolivars. In 2013, it issued in Australian dollars for the first time. In 2012, CAF's medium- and long-term borrowing amounted to $11.1 billion, compared with $9.2 billion in CAF has both U.S. and eurodollar commercial paper programs, with three dealers that can issue up to a combined US$5.0 billion as of July In 2012, it could issue up to US$4 billion, and at year-end outstanding commercial paper totaled US$3.174 billion (from US$1.977 billion in 2011). At the end of 2012, CAF's commercial paper had an average tenor of 249 days, up from 133 days in 2011, and compared with 282 in 2010, and 195 and 66 days at year-end 2009 and 2008, respectively. Although CAF does not have a committed backup credit facility to cover rollover risk and there are no formal limits on the maximum amount that falls due in one day, CAF has demonstrated the ability to manage this risk via liquidity on its balance sheet. Securities on CAF's balance sheet that can be liquidated immediately (t+0) provided CAF with about US$3.0 billion of liquid coverage at year-end 2012, and CAF can liquidate 100% of its liquid portfolio in t+3 days. However, there is risk that liquidation of this entire portfolio could occur at below market prices--which we assume in our liquidity stress scenarios. Liquidity While CAF has lower liquidity ratios than some other higher-rated MLIs, under our liquidity stress scenario at the one-year time horizon, assets and liabilities would fully cover liabilities, excluding scheduled loans. In this stress scenario, the bank would be able to continue fulfilling its mandate, without access to capital markets, for at least one year if it moderately reduced planned disbursements and deferred a portion of its undisbursed loans. As of year-end 2012, CAF had liquid assets--including its cash and due from banks, deposits with banks, and marketable securities--of US$7.2 billion (29% of total assets), up from US$5.7 billion (26% of total assets) in The ratio of liquid assets to total debt for 2012 was 41%, up from 37% in CAF's liquidity policy, updated in 2012, also requires that 90% of its liquid assets be held in the form of instruments rated 'A-' or higher (previously 80%), and the remaining portion may be invested in speculative-grade instruments with a minimum rating of 'B-'. The bank's liquidity-management policy requires it to maintain liquid assets at the greater of: 45% of undisbursed project and corporate loan commitments; or 35% of the sum of the next 12 months' estimated debt service plus estimated project loan disbursements. OCTOBER 25,

18 Unlike a commercial bank, CAF is not regulated by a central bank and has no access to emergency liquidity. Likelihood Of Extraordinary Shareholder Support The issuer credit rating on CAF does not incorporate extraordinary support via callable capital from shareholders. All of its shareholders are rated lower than CAF's SACP of 'aa-' (see table 7). Table 7 CAF Capital Account --Year ended Dec (Mil. US$) Subscribed and paid-in capital, of which: Series A shares Series B shares 3,316 3,000 2,384 1,914 1, Series C shares Additional paid-in capital Total paid-in capital 4,419 3,969 3,430 3,025 2,457 2,249 Reserves 2,286 2,230 2,157 2,027 1,786 1,477 Retained earnings Total shareholders' equity 6,865 6,351 5,753 5,287 4,554 4,127 Callable capital From 'AAA'-rated member countries* From other investment grade member countries *As of January 2009, Spain is no longer rated 'AAA'. Related Criteria And Research How An Erosion Of Preferred Creditor Treatment Could Lead To Lower Ratings On Multilateral Lending Institutions, Aug. 26, 2013 Supranationals Special Edition, May 7, 2013 Multilateral Lending Institutions And other Supranational Institutions Ratings Methodology, Nov. 26, 2012 Ratings Detail (As Of October 25, 2013) Corporacion Andina de Fomento Counterparty Credit Rating Foreign Currency Commercial Paper Foreign Currency Senior Unsecured CaVal (Mexico) National Scale Senior Unsecured Counterparty Credit Ratings History AA-/Stable/A-1+ A-1+ mxaaa 19-Dec-2012 Foreign Currency AA-/Stable/A-1+ AA- OCTOBER 25,

19 Ratings Detail (As Of October 25, 2013) (cont.) 02-Jun Aug Dec-2008 A+/Positive/A-1 A+/Stable/A-1 A+/Negative/A-1 *Unless otherwise noted, all ratings in this report are global scale ratings. Standard & Poor's credit ratings on the global scale are comparable across countries. Standard & Poor's credit ratings on a national scale are relative to obligors or obligations within that specific country. OCTOBER 25,

20 Copyright 2013 by Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC. All rights reserved. No content (including ratings, credit-related analyses and data, valuations, model, software or other application or output therefrom) or any part thereof (Content) may be modified, reverse engineered, reproduced or distributed in any form by any means, or stored in a database or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC or its affiliates (collectively, S&P). The Content shall not be used for any unlawful or unauthorized purposes. S&P and any third-party providers, as well as their directors, officers, shareholders, employees or agents (collectively S&P Parties) do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, timeliness or availability of the Content. S&P Parties are not responsible for any errors or omissions (negligent or otherwise), regardless of the cause, for the results obtained from the use of the Content, or for the security or maintenance of any data input by the user. The Content is provided on an "as is" basis. S&P PARTIES DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE, FREEDOM FROM BUGS, SOFTWARE ERRORS OR DEFECTS, THAT THE CONTENT'S FUNCTIONING WILL BE UNINTERRUPTED, OR THAT THE CONTENT WILL OPERATE WITH ANY SOFTWARE OR HARDWARE CONFIGURATION. In no event shall S&P Parties be liable to any party for any direct, indirect, incidental, exemplary, compensatory, punitive, special or consequential damages, costs, expenses, legal fees, or losses (including, without limitation, lost income or lost profits and opportunity costs or losses caused by negligence) in connection with any use of the Content even if advised of the possibility of such damages. Credit-related and other analyses, including ratings, and statements in the Content are statements of opinion as of the date they are expressed and not statements of fact. S&P's opinions, analyses, and rating acknowledgment decisions (described below) are not recommendations to purchase, hold, or sell any securities or to make any investment decisions, and do not address the suitability of any security. S&P assumes no obligation to update the Content following publication in any form or format. The Content should not be relied on and is not a substitute for the skill, judgment and experience of the user, its management, employees, advisors and/or clients when making investment and other business decisions. S&P does not act as a fiduciary or an investment advisor except where registered as such. While S&P has obtained information from sources it believes to be reliable, S&P does not perform an audit and undertakes no duty of due diligence or independent verification of any information it receives. To the extent that regulatory authorities allow a rating agency to acknowledge in one jurisdiction a rating issued in another jurisdiction for certain regulatory purposes, S&P reserves the right to assign, withdraw, or suspend such acknowledgement at any time and in its sole discretion. S&P Parties disclaim any duty whatsoever arising out of the assignment, withdrawal, or suspension of an acknowledgment as well as any liability for any damage alleged to have been suffered on account thereof. S&P keeps certain activities of its business units separate from each other in order to preserve the independence and objectivity of their respective activities. As a result, certain business units of S&P may have information that is not available to other S&P business units. S&P has established policies and procedures to maintain the confidentiality of certain nonpublic information received in connection with each analytical process. S&P may receive compensation for its ratings and certain analyses, normally from issuers or underwriters of securities or from obligors. S&P reserves the right to disseminate its opinions and analyses. S&P's public ratings and analyses are made available on its Web sites, (free of charge), and and (subscription) and (subscription) and may be distributed through other means, including via S&P publications and third-party redistributors. Additional information about our ratings fees is available at OCTOBER 25,

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