1 ANNUAL REPORT 2006 Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute NIDI is an institute of the Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts and Sciences (KNAW) P.O. Box AR The Hague The Netherlands Lange Houtstraat CV The Hague The Hague, 2007
2 2 Content Introduction NIDI Research Social Demography Department Projections and Migration Department Population and Development Department Other activities Scientific policy advice Training and education Scientific associations Conferences and workshops Finance Organisation Supervisory Committee Scientific Advisory Board Staff Information and Communication Technology (ICT) Information and publications...43 A Publications in B Lectures...68 C Training and education...73 D Participation in organisations...77 E Practical information...80 F List of abbreviations...82
3 3 Introduction NIDI Annual Reports provide a summary overview of NIDI s work. Up-to-date information about the Institute s activities can be found on our website (www.nidi.nl). Comments and suggestions regarding all our activities are welcome. In the course of the implementation of the NIDI Strategy which was adopted in 2005, the year 2006 saw the onset of adjustments in the organization of NIDI. These changes were necessary to enable the institute to make room for substantive innovations on the one hand and to more effectively respond to new opportunities that come with the development of the European Research Area and the continued globalization of scientific research. A proposal to restructure the institute was developed by NIDI management and in December its general principles were adopted by the Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts and Sciences (KNAW) to which NIDI is affiliated. After consultations with employees representatives in the Worker Council (OR/OC) it is envisaged that the implementation of the restructuring will take place in Partly building on ongoing research, but principally through introducing health economics, health systems research will be developed into a new research theme at NIDI. The strategic reorientation involves the termination of reproductive health research and population census activities and implies that the current Population & Development Department will cease to exist as a separate entity. Its remaining research, notably on international migration and health will be merged with the activities of the former Department of Projections and Migration into the new Department of Projections, Migration and Health Systems (PMH). A healthy financial position is a prerequisite for successfully implementing our strategy and executing our work programme. NIDI is largely dependent on external funding: in 2006 some 70 percent of our budget had to be acquired externally, while the remaining 30 percent was provided by the Academy as core funding. Acquisition was largely successful and several new projects were launched in Frans Willekens Director The Hague, April 2007
5 1. NIDI NIDI is the national demographic institute of the Netherlands. Founded in 1970 as a joint initiative of Dutch universities, it gained an independent status in In 2003, NIDI was affiliated to the KNAW. Working at the heart of science, the Academy s mission is to promote scientific research in the Netherlands. Fundamental research carried out today will provide a basis for the applied research of tomorrow and, in turn, for the practical application of science in the future. NIDI has a multidisciplinary staff of some 50 researchers and other professionals, including demographers, geographers, sociologists, economists, statisticians and historians. Fellows and students from the Netherlands and abroad visit the Institute on a regular basis and help carry out its programme. NIDI staff are organised into three research departments and one Support Services Department. The support services include financial management and human resources, ICT, information and publications and secretarial services. Changes in the growth, size and composition of the population in terms of age ( dejuvenation and ageing), household composition, ethnicity and geographical distribution are closely linked to social trends in a variety of domains, such as the economy, labour market, social security, education, welfare, housing, transport and infrastructure, as well as to socio-cultural trends such as individualisation and secularisation. These population trends, and the underlying dynamics of demographic change processes, such as fertility, the formation and dissolution of relationships, internal and international migration, mobility and mortality, directly and indirectly affect a host of policy issues. As a national demographic institute, NIDI studies population issues in their social context. To this end, the Institute is firmly rooted in science and society and draws inspiration from the interplay between demographic and related social issues. Socially relevant research into population issues is the core of NIDI s strategy.
6 6 Mission and Goals NIDI s mission is to provide more insight into demographic developments and related social and policy issues in a national and international context. The Institute seeks to achieve its mission through (1) conducting top-quality scientific research into population issues (its core activity), and (2) disseminating demographic knowledge and information among the scientific community, policymakers and society at large and making this information more understandable. NIDI has built up and continues to develop a knowledge infrastructure for population issues. NIDI is a unique national, and leading international research institute for population issues, and its goal is to further develop this position. Whilst continuing to have a solid grounding in the Netherlands, NIDI has opted to secure a position as a European institute. Its research is driven by social relevance, scientific inquisitiveness and a demand for knowledge. Strategy NIDI s strategy serves as the basis for the achievement of its mission and the realisation of its goals. The following premises underlie its strategy: Its research focuses on socially inspired research questions. The desire to solve social issues is an important source of inspiration when selecting research topics. NIDI must continue to convince government and society at large of the importance of demographic research for making informed choices about social trends. This requires special attention to the transfer of knowledge and information on population issues. NIDI s research has an interdisciplinary approach, which is firmly rooted in demography as its core discipline. Demographic behaviour is situated in a context made up of various levels: The individual life course, the historic context and the changing social environment. Life course, generation and social interdependence are the core concepts. NIDI is the demographic centre of excellence in the Netherlands and is set to further develop into a leading centre of excellence in Europe with a solid grounding in the Netherlands. A financially sound institute with a well-balanced workforce is a prerequisite for the successful implementation of its mission.
7 7 The strategy is structured around a coherent set of theoretical (explanations of demographic behaviour), analytical (methods and models) and empirical (primary and secondary data) frameworks. The theoretical framework of NIDI s strategy focuses on demographic behaviour in the context of the life course, with a strong emphasis on the social and historical context (generation) and the dynamics of social interdependence. The analytical framework of NIDI s strategy focuses on the study of demographic processes during the course of people s lives from a cohort perspective. The empirical framework supports the strategy with a mix of cross-sectional and longitudinal data, where existing data are used to their full potential and new, preferably longitudinal data are collected. A central element of its strategy is its focus on a limited number of research priorities in terms of programming. A professional attitude, a performancedriven approach and distinct, identifiable products are central to this strategy. Acquisition Over the years NIDI has extended its scale and scope by acquiring external research funds. Today about 70 percent of the institute s annual income originates from sources other than the KNAW and is acquired on a competitive basis. A financially sound business operation is a prerequisite for the successful implementation of the Institute s mission and the realisation of its goals. NIDI s budget incorporates demanding acquisition targets for each of the research departments. Despite a strong interest in population issues in today s society, the market for scientific research into population issues is unfavourable. Three factors have contributed to that development. First, in recent years the Netherlands government ministries cut back in long-term programme funding. Second, other major clients have redefined what they consider core activities and have started to carry out themselves activities they used to outsource. Third, national and international clients increasingly expect research institutes to co-finance projects by matching research grants. This is putting more and more pressure on NIDI s equity position. The Institute s acquisition strategy is (a) to give priority to longer term contracts in an effort to avoid fragmentation, (b) to achieve a greater diversification of sources of income with a view to spreading risks, and (c) and to adopt a proactive acquisition approach, emphasizing research lines and products for
8 which NIDI is known. Examples are the MicMac population forecasting programme that builds on the well-known LIPRO research, the WPRB policy research programme, the Resource Flows programme in the field of health systems studies, the NWO-VIDI population ageing research programme (pensions), the Netherlands Kinship Panel Study (NKPS) and research into the Second Demographic Transition. A proactive approach requires a greater emphasis on relationship management and on increasing the visibility of the institute in refereed journals and the international scientific debate. 8
9 2. Research NIDI s principal task is to conduct research into population issues. The Institute studies past, present and future population trends as well as the backgrounds to these trends and their social consequences. NIDI s research programme is structured around flexible themes that reflect the Institute s mission. The topics studied change over time, in an effort to keep abreast of both scientific developments and changes in national and international social and policy contexts. Research projects are usually carried out by multidisciplinary teams of researchers; more often than not, researchers participate in various projects. Flexibility is considered to be a major asset of NIDI s approach. NIDI research is organised into three departments: Social Demography, Projections and Migration and Population and Development. The activities of the three research departments in 2006 are set out in the following.
10 Social Demography Department research staff: Kène Henkens (Head of department) Aat Liefbroer (Head of department) Gijs Beets Sylvia Commandeur Pearl Dykstra Ingrid Esveldt Tamar Fischer Tineke Fokkema Ruben van Gaalen (PhD trainee) Renske Keizer (PhD trainee) Nico van Nimwegen Frans van Poppel Anne van Putten (PhD trainee) Hanna van Solinge Judith Soons (PhD trainee) Mathieu Starink Helga de Valk The demographic behaviour of the population of the Netherlands, as in other western societies, has undergone major changes in recent decades. Young adults are spending more years of their lives on their own, they are postponing the formation of relationships and family formation, and more and more relationships are falling apart. Children are growing up in more complex family set-ups. Women are attaching greater importance to having a job and more and more women now remain in the labour force after the arrival of children. Not only are couples postponing childbirth, they are also having fewer children, and the number of childless couples is growing. Changes in demographic behaviour are not only taking place in the first half of the life course. The lives of older adults have also seen many changes. Whilst women now continue working until a more advanced age, men are retiring earlier than ever before. As couples are having fewer children and the average life expectancy is increasing, people are spending more years of their lives without their children. Older people want to live independently as long as possible and are trying to avoid institutionalisation.
11 11 These changes in demographic behaviour are related to the growing complexity of our society. This may be attributed in part to the ongoing social processes of individualisation, globalisation and a reshaping of the welfare state. This complexity appears to be putting increasing pressure on social cohesion. As a result, people are facing dilemmas in shaping their own lives (in terms of their families, jobs and wider social networks). At the same time, the relationship between the wishes and behaviour of individuals at the micro level and what is desirable and sustainable at the macro level has come under pressure too. In this light, people in the Netherlands now set great store by a reassessment of fundamental shared norms and values and are addressing the question as to how these values can be passed on to others within and outside the family. Despite this focus on norms and values, individual responsibility is becoming more important when taking decisions. People today are expected to make choices based on their own rational considerations, and to face the consequences of their choices. Making demographic choices, most of which have far-reaching implications for people s lives, has become all the more difficult as a result. Not only do people have access to much more information than they did in the past, but their decisions also need to be aligned with the decisions of others (such as their partners or children) and reconciled with activities in other domains of life. Needless to say, changing demographic behaviour does not only have implications for the lives of individuals, but also has an impact at the macro level. The population of the Netherlands is ageing rapidly as a result of the declining number of children and increasing life expectancy. At the same time, the composition of the population is changing in terms of household type, marital status, ethnicity, health status and employment status. Not only are demographic events embedded in individual life courses, but individual life courses are also shaped by the occurrence of demographic events (or their failure to occur). In this light, the life course perspective was chosen as the main basis for the research activities of the Social Demography Department. The department focuses on four closely related research themes. The first two themes deal with two crucial stages of the life course: young adulthood and the so-called third stage of life. The two other themes relate
12 12 to research covering the entire life course, in part bringing together the first two themes, namely research into intergenerational relationships and research into the relationship between demographic trends and government policy. NIDI research on the life course of young adults primarily focuses on the micro and macro determinants of demographic decision making with respect to leaving the parental home, family formation and parenthood in the Netherlands and in a European perspective. This research uses NIDI s own data (NKPS, PSIN) as well as data provided by others (FFS, the Dutch Survey on Family Formation, ECHP and other retrospective surveys). The implications of life course changes for the well-being of young adults are studied in a project which is funded by the Netherlands Science Foundation (NWO); Judith Soons is preparing a PhD thesis on this topic (Project ). Ongoing research on the Second Demographic Transition is extended with the aid of a questionaire module for the European Social Survey which was co-developed by NIDI. This survey was carried out in 2006 in over 25 countries. Changes in household composition in Europe were the subject of a project that was financed by the European Commision (HIT, project ) which will be concluded in Also an expert meeting on The future of motherhood was organized in 2006; its outcomes will be published in NIDI research on the third phase of the life course focuses on the causes and consequences of events in people s employment histories (retirement) and household histories (union dissolution as a result of widowhood and divorce). Both the individual and the social implications of these events are being studied. The consequences for individuals were studied in a project funded by NWO into the causes and implications of early retirement (Project ). This project was concluded in 2006 with the PhD thesis of Hanna van Solinge defended at Utrecht University. In 2006 an NWO- VIDI research program was started entitled The Process of Retirement: a dynamic and multi-actor perspective (Project ). In 2006 multiactor panel data were collected among workers at the end of their occupational career. Employers behaviour on the labour market is studied in an international comparative perspective. In December 2006 a new project on employers attitudes towards ageing was funded by the Dutch ministry of Economic Affairs (Project ).
13 13 Another topic studied is the influence of life course factors on health and mortality. Here, too, the researchers draw on both NIDI data and data provided by the Historical Sample of the Dutch Population (HSN). NIDI s approach can be characterised by its long-term perspective, at both the macro and the micro level. NIDI is involved in a large-scale survey of the relationship between life circumstances in early childhood and health in adulthood (Project ). Another theme is how culture relates to public health, in particular health differences between ethnic groups. Here an interesting parallel with the marked differences in health between religious groups in the recent past can be drawn. In this light, studies of the cultural religion-based differences in mortality in the past serve a useful purpose in explaining the present-day situation (Project ). Research into intergenerational relationships is set to benefit substantially from the findings of the Netherlands Kinship Panel Study (NKPS, project ). In this large-scale survey of family relationships in the Netherlands, various family members are interviewed twice during the course of a period of three years. This set-up allows the researchers to study how, and to what extent, solidarity manifests itself and changes within families. From a demographic point of view, this study offers a whole host of leads for further research into themes such as changes in the structure of families, the influence of family circumstances on demographic choices, and the implications of changing demographic circumstances on the way in which family networks function. The project also offers an excellent opportunity to link the study of the nuclear family to the study of the extended family. NIDI initiated several PhD projects as part of the NKPS programme. The study of Helga de Valk, which looked into the influence of families on decisions relating to family formation taken by adolescents of foreign and Dutch descent was concluded with a PhD thesis in 2006 (Project ). The project on solidarity and conflict within families of Ruben van Gaalen was concluded, with the PhD defence scheduled for 2007 (Project ). Ongoing PhD projects are analyzing determinants and consequences of childlessness (Project ) and intergenerational transfers with respect to paid and unpaid labour/care (Project ). In addition to micro-oriented research which derives particular benefits from the NKPS data, this research theme also has a macro component, which focuses on the relationships between birth cohorts. The population of older adults is changing constantly as new, younger cohorts who have different life experiences, habits and values join the ranks of the elderly population. A central research question is how individual experiences and the events
14 14 that take place during the course of people s lives affect their well-being in later life. In 2006 the first phase of a three year research project on gender differences in the living conditions and ageing in Europe entitled Major Ageing and Gender Issues in Europe (MAGGIE, project ) was carried out within the context of the EU Sixth Framework Programme. A new EU funded project will focus on variations in intergenerational solidarity and the implications for policy in Europe (ELVIS, project ). The fourth theme of NIDI research in the domain of social demography relates to interactions of demographic behaviour and government policy. To what extent does government policy intentionally and unintentionally affect demographic behaviour? Attitudes about population-related policy issues are studied. Also the way in which changing demographic behaviour of individuals and resulting demographic trends affect government policy is analyzed. In this respect NIDI pays continuous attention to the description and analysis of demographic trends in their social context. The activities of the Working Group for the Periodic Reporting on Population Issues (WPRB) play a central role in this respect. In 2006 the 8 th report of WPRB, which focuses on the demography of the four largest cities of the Netherlands, was presented (Project ). Population and policy interactions at the European level are addressed in a study carried out for the European Commission in the context of its Social Situation Observatory. This project, led by NIDI, is conducted by a consortium of leading European institutes and a network of European experts (Project ). Ongoing Projects in 2006: Fertility trends in the Netherlands and Europe Late and low fertility: childlessness The Second Demographic Transition Fertility and life courses Preferences, values and norms regarding the formation of relationships and fertility behaviour Life course trajectories and well-being among young adults Demography of young adults and intergenerational transfer Households in transition - a policy-oriented analysis (HIT)
15 Fertility intentions and outcomes: the role of policies to close the gap Family formation from a historical perspective Nuptiality in the Netherlands, Demography of family relationships Netherlands kinship panel study (NKPS) From generation to generation; transmission of work-family patterns and exchange of support between parents and children Antecedents and consequences of childlessness Living arrangements of the elderly Major ageing and gender issues in Europe (MAGGIE) Personal support norms: willingness to give ánd to receive European landscape of variations in intergenerational solidarity (ELVIS) The long-term development of public health Infant mortality in Europe Religious denomination and infant and child mortality Health differentials Inequality in longevity from a life course perspective: The Netherlands Demographic studies of population groups Periodic surveys on population issues Periodic reporting on population issues Population issues in the Netherlands (WPRB 2006) Monitor social situation in the European Union (Observatory) Demography and the labour market Labour force participation and the income position of the elderly
16 The process of retirement: a dynamic and multi-actor perspective Emigration and the labour market Employers attitudes towards ageing Projects concluded in 2006: Relationship dissolution in Europe Family ties and the behavioural choices of young people: a survey among migrant and non-migrant population groups in the Netherlands Solidarity and conflict in family relationships Survey of opinions and attitudes on aspects of population issues (MOAB) Population policy acceptance in Europe Early retirement: determinants of and implications for health, personal relationships and well-being Key publications in 2006: Fischer, T., A. Liefbroer, For richer, for poorer: the impact of macroeconomic conditions on union dissolution rates in the Netherlands In: European sociological review 22(2006)5, p Gaalen, R. van, P.A. Dykstra, Solidarity and conflict between adult children and parents: a latent class analysis. In: Journal of marriage and the family 68(2006)4, pp Liefbroer, A., E. Dourleijn, Unmarried cohabitation and union stability: testing the role of diffusion using data from 16 European countries. In: Demography 43(2006)2, pp Schellekens, J., F. van Poppel, Religious differentials in marital fertility in The Hague (Netherlands) In: Population studies 60(2006)1, pp Solinge, H. van, Changing tracks: studies on life after early retirement in the Netherlands. The Hague: s.n., p. Doctoral dissertation Utrecht. Also published as NIDI report; 70. Valk, H. de, Pathways into adulthood: a comparative study on family life transitions among migrant and Dutch youth. S.l.: Thela Thesis, p. Doctoral dissertation Utrecht.
17 Projections and Migration Department Research staff: Joop de Beer (head of department) Erik Beekink Luc Bonneux Peter Ekamper Rob van der Erf Nicole van der Gaag George Groenewold Marjolijn Guijt (Masters trainee) Liesbeth Heering Corina Huisman Huseyin Kaya (trainee) Beata Nowok (PhD trainee) Bart Pegge (Masters trainee) Mieke Reuser (PhD trainee) Jeannette Schoorl Ernst Spaan René Wetters The research projects of the Projections and Migration Department are clustered around two themes. The theme Projections and Models focuses on the development of new models, methods and instruments for making population projections including projections of the health status of the population. The theme Migration and Integration includes both research aimed at improving statistics on international migration and analyses of the social and economic integration of migrants and their children. The life course perspective is central in the research in both themes. The core of the theme Projections and Models is the international research project Bridging the Micro-Macro Gap in Population Forecasting (MicMac, project ). This project aims to develop a new demographic projection model that can be used by both national and international agencies to monitor and project demographic developments and their consequences for health care and pension systems. The programme is funded by the European Commission
18 under the Sixth Framework Programme and is carried out by a consortium of researchers from eight European research institutes coordinated by NIDI. The MicMac project combines macro and micro approaches to making projections. At the macro level, demographic events and transitions are modelled to produce cohort biographies; at the micro level, life courses of individual cohort members are modelled. This four-year research programme started in In 2006 the first results of the project were presented at the European Population Conference (EPC) in Liverpool. A prototype of the model was used for making micro and macro level simulations of the distribution of the population over living arrangements based on Dutch data. A new project is Demography Epidemiology Actuarial Science (DEA, project ) which is funded by the Strategic Fund of the KNAW. This project started in the second half of The objective is to develop methods for making projections of the impact of changes in risk factors and possible interventions on mortality, health and the costs of health care. The study focuses on three determinants of health: smoking, obesity in combination with the level of educational attainment. Transitions between health states will be estimated using longitudinal data. On the basis of assumptions on future changes in the determinants, projections of the number of people with physical or mental disability and the duration of the disability will be made. By combining these projections with data on costs of health care, the effect on insurance premiums, taxes and out-of-pocket expenditures can be calculated. In December 2006 two new research projects aimed at analysing mortality differences in Europe were embarked on. Both projects are funded by the European Commission. The project on Decomposition of life expectancy changes by cause of death (Project ) will analyse changes in life expectancy in 30 European countries with a special focus on the contribution of changes in cause of death patterns. The other project ( Atlas on mortality, project ) seeks to analyse regional differences in mortality across Europe, also with a focus on causes of death. Another project funded by the European Commission is Demography and Vocational Education and Training (Project ). The objective of this project is to analyze the consequences of future demographic changes, particularly ageing, for vocational education in Europe. More particularly the future development of the number of students and the consequences for the number of teachers and schools are analysed. The project started in 2006 and will be finished early The theme Projections & Models includes three other on-going research projects: the projection of the size and composition of the civil service in the 18