Increasing telephone and internet access in Rio Grande do Sul

Transcription

1 GOVERNO DO ESTADO DO RIO GRANDE DO SUL Secretaria do Planejamento e Gestão FUNDAÇÃO DE ECONOMIA E ESTATÍSTICA Siegfried Emanuel Heuser 18 th YEAR No. 12 Dec/2009 Monthly Letter Increasing telephone and internet access in Rio Grande do Sul According to the National Household Survey (PNAD) produced by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics the number of households with access to internet and telephone in Rio Grande do Sul has increased in There were 904 thousand households with internet (24.8% of total households) which represents an increase of 154 thousand in comparison with In terms of telephone service, in 2008 there were 3.38 million households with telephones (92.5% of total households) which represents an increase of 190 thousand in comparison with In population terms, these numbers indicate that in million people had access to the internet and million people had access to the telephone. In both aspects, Rio Grande do Sul is ahead of the national average. However, a comparison of Rio Grande do Sul numbers with other states shows that the state ranks at the top only in terms of access to telephone services. In 2008, no other state (Federal District not included) had more telephones per households than Rio Grande do Sul (92.5%). But in terms of access to the internet, the state of Rio Grande do Sul ranks only sixth in the country. The distribution of telephone services shows that 86.9% of Rio Grande do Sul households had mobile phones, 43.7% had a land line, and 38.1% had both. Rio Grande do Sul is the second state in density of mobile phones per households, Mato Grosso do Sul is first. In terms of land lines, Rio Grande do Sul is only the sixth in terms of density (43.7%). According to a report by the National Telecommunications Agency (Anatel) in December of % of Rio Grande do Sul mobile phones were post-paid phones, thus representing the highest number of post-paid mobile phones in the country, and well above the national average of 18.5%. According to Barometer estimates (a publication of Cisco and IDC consulting) in the second semester of 2008 there were 1.89 million broadband connections in the Southern Region of Brazil. Assuming that the distribution of broadband connections is the same for the three states in the region (in 2008, 35.0% of households with internet access in the region were in Rio Grande do Sul) that means that approximately 660 thousand would be in Rio Grande do Sul. Though the estimate may be inaccurate it is still useful. Even if there are less broadband connections, say, 600 thousand, this means that out of every three households with internet access, two used broadband access in Internet access is still a luxury in Brazil. In 2008, only 17.6% of Brazilian households that earned up to 10 minimum wages had a PC with internet access, whereas 87.0% of households that earned more than 20 minimum wages had internet access. In other words, internet access is 394.0% more present in households that earn more than 20 minimum wages than in households that earn 10 or less. In Rio Grande do Sul, this difference was 360.0% in In the interest of comparison, this same difference for household appliances, like ovens, is 1.7% in Brazil and 1.1% in Rio Grande do Sul. For telephone services, the difference is 24.6% in Brazil and 8.5% in Rio Grande do Sul. To be sure, Rio Grande do Sul is a national reference for telephone services in terms of the number of people with access to the service and in terms of the quality of use of the service. However, in terms of internet access there is still a lot of work to be done. Even though Rio Grande do Sul is above the national average, progress is slow in comparison with other members of the Federation. Landline, mobile phone and internet acces per private, permanent households in Brazil and selected states 2008 PERMANENT PRIVATE HOUSEHOLDS BRAZIL AND SELECTED STATES Total 1,000 Percentage and Order Households Telephone Mobile phone Landline Mobile + landline Internet acces São Paulo (2º) 80.9 (5º) 65.9 (1º) 55.2 (1º) 35.1 (1º) Minas Gerais (10º) 76.1 (11º) 45.1 (5º) 38.4 (5º) 23.3 (7º) Rio de Janeiro (4º) 80.6 (7º) 64.1 (2º) 54.9 (2º) 33.4 (3º) Rio Grande do Sul (1º) 86.9 (2º) 43.7 (6º) 38.1 (6º) 24.8 (6º) Paraná (6º) 79.4 (9º) 51.9 (4º) 44.0 (4º) 29.8 (4º) Mato Grosso do Sul (3º) 87.3 (1º) 34.3 (9º) 30.6 (9º) 20.0 (9º) SOURCE: Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics - National household survey NOTE: Data in parentheses represent the ranking of the states according to telephone and internet service. Rafael Bernardini Santos (FEE/CIE)

2 2 Performance of the Rio Grande do Sul services and merchandise tax (ICMS) in 2009 In 2009 the performance of the tax levied on services and merchandise (called ICMS) in Rio Grande do Sul reflected the impact of the world economic crisis and the resulting retraction in the Brazilian and Rio Grande do Sul economy. According to data from the Rio Grande do Sul Secretary of the Treasury the accumulated tax revenue from January to September of 2009 totaled R$ billion in comparison to R$ billion during the same period in 2008, a 0.3-percent loss in the period. The performance of state tax could actually have been worse if it were not for the measures adopted by the Treasury, which aimed at decreasing tax evasion. One of the negative consequences of the decrease in tax revenue was the postponement of investments in the state. The tax revenue by sector for January to September of 2009 shows that the Manufacturing Industry, a sector that provides almost half of the state services and merchandise taxes revenue (44.30%), had a 12.3% increase in tax revenue in comparison to the same revenue accumulated for the period in The services sector (which also includes other smaller sectors) has a participation of 12.72% in tax revenue and showed an increase of 4.1% in tax revenue generated. Conversely, the wholesale sector (which represents 24.43% of tax revenues) showed a decrease of 17.7% in tax revenue generated, and the retail sector (12.46% of the tax revenue) showed a decrease of 1.5%. Merchandise and service tax (ICMS) revenue per sector in Rio Grande do Sul: January to September of 2008, and January to September of 2009 Sector JAN-SEPT/08 JAN-SEPT/09 Value (R$) Participation % Value (R$) Participation % % JAN-SEPT/09 JAN-SEPT/08 Manufacturing industry 4,189,881, ,704,222, Wholesale. 3,150,700, ,594,065, Retail sales 1,343,982, ,323,462, Services and others. 1,298,144, ,351,164, Other!" activities (1) 667,391, ,832, ,650,101, ,619,747, SOURCE: FEEDADOS. (1) Includes vegetable production and extraction, mining and quarrying, and assembly, packaging and overhaul services. Lívio Luiz Soares de Oliveira (FEE/CIE) Rio Grande do Sul wheat: decrease in production and trade difficulties The current Brazilian wheat harvest totaled 2,446.8 thousand hectares. The wheat harvest of Rio Grande do Sul contributes with 36.0% of the harvested area in the country, and is estimated to produce 1,764.6 thousand tons (estimate by the National Supply Company, Conab). This represents a 14.0% decrease in relation to the previous harvest. Due to unfavorable climate conditions, up until mid November approximately 67.0% of the Rio Grande do Sul wheat had been harvested, a number below the 81.0% average that is usually collected during the same period. Adverse climate caused a delay in the sowing of the wheat crops (lack of rain) and a delay in the harvest (excess rain). As a result, there is a lot of uncertainty in relation to the quality of the grain and to the increase in costs due to more use of fungicides. In addition to these problems, farmers have faced difficulties with the wheat trade. Wheat farmers waited on the Ministry of Agriculture and Supply to announce measures during the month of October. Farmers hoped for an increase in the price of wheat which is currently below the minimum price. However, during the meeting of the Chamber of Winter Crops on November 11, 2009 in Brasilia the Government indicated only that it will organize special auctions for the sale of the crop (called PEP auctions). These auctions are a government-funded economic subsidy in which public auctions are held for the acquisition of a product. The product will be purchased at the reference value that is guaranteed by the Government. The use of this mechanism for the wheat harvest is a disappointment for the farmers who were hoping for better, more comprehensive support from the Government. Comparison of harvested area, productivity and production of wheat in Brazil and southern states: and harvests Description 2008/09 (A) AREA (1 000 ha) PRODUCTIVITY (kg/ha) PRODUCTION (1 000 t) 2009/10 (B) Variation % (B/A) 2008/09 (C) 2009/10 (D) Variation % (D/C) 2008/09 (E) 2009/10 (F) Variation % (F/E) PR SC RS SOURCE: Conab - Survey: Nov/2009. Suzana Ribeiro Boeckel (FEE/CEES)

3 BRAZILIAN ECONOMY MONTHS AND YEARS ANNUAL GROWTH RATE OF GDP (1) (IBGE) RATE OF INVESTMENT (2) (% OF GDP) (IPEA) AVERAGE OPEN UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (3) (% of the economically active population IBGE) Selected macroeconomic variables Dec/96-Oct/09 ANNUAL PRICE INDEX CHANGE RATE (%) (4) (IPCA/IBGE) CENTRAL BANK PRIME RATE SELIC (% per year) (Central Bank) EFFECTIVE EXCHANGE RATE (5) (Funcex) Index (Base: Dec/93 = 100) INDUSTRIAL REAL WAGES (IBGE) Index (Base: Jan/01 = 100) MONETARY BASE (millions of R$) (Central Bank) Dec/96 2,1 21,0-10,1 23, ,2 0, Dec/97 3,4 22,2-5,2 38, ,8 0, Dec/98 0,0 21,2-1,7 29, ,3-0, Dec/99 0,3 19,6-8,9 19, ,4 0, Dec/00 4,3 20,3-6,0 16, ,3 0, Dec/01 1,3 19,2 10,6 7,7 19, ,7 25, Dec/02 2,7-10,5 12,5 22, ,4 20, Dec/03 1,1-10,9 9,3 17, ,4 21, Dec/04 5,7-9,6 7,6 17,25 88,9-134,4 24, Dec/05 2,9-8,3 5,7 18,50 75,7-14,8 135,5 21, Dec/06 3,8-8,4 3,1 13,25 73,8-2,5 135,1 19, Nov/ ,2 4,2 11,25 64,5-12,0 115,7 9, Dec/07 5,7-7,4 4,5 11,25 63,9-13,4 140,8 21, Jan/ ,0 4,6 11,25 63,7-12,5 112,0-20, Feb/ ,7 4,6 11,25 62,7-12,7 106,6-4, Mar/08 5,9-8,6 4,7 11,25 63,5-12,0 108,1 1, Apr/ ,5 5,0 11,25 63,1-13,4 106,1-1, May/ ,9 5,6 11,75 61,2-14,8 108,7 2, Jun/08 6,0-7,9 6,1 12,25 59,8-14,6 107,2-1, Jul/ ,1 6,4 13,00 59,1-14,3 109,6 2, Aug/ ,6 6,2 13,75 58,6-17,2 109,9 0, Sept/08 6,3-7,6 6,3 13,75 63,4-6,9 108,4-1, Oct/ ,5 6,4 13,75 70,6 8,8 109,1 0, Nov/ ,6 6,4 13,75 70,2 8,8 120,3 10, Dec/08 5,1-6,8 5,9 13,75 74,5 16,6 148,1 23, Jan/ ,2 5,8 12,75 71,1 11,6 113,7-23, Feb/ ,5 5,9 12,75 70,1 11,8 113,2-0, Mar/09 3,1-9,0 5,6 11,25 70,7 11,3 111,1-1, Apr/ ,9 5,5 10,25 68,1 7,9 110,0-1, May/ ,8 5,2 10,25 65,0 6,2 114,7 4, Jun/09 1,3-8,1 4,8 9,25 63,3 5,9 112,2-2, Jul/ ,0 4,5 8,75 63,2 6,9 113,3 1, Aug/ ,1 4,4 8,75 61,2 4,4 110,4-2, Sept/ ,7 4,3 8, ,3-0, Oct/ , Rate of Change (%) (4) Rate of Change (%) (7) (continue) 3

4 BRAZILIAN ECONOMY MONTHS AND YEARS PUBLIC SECTOR BORROWINGS REQUIREMENTS (6) (% of GDP) (Central Bank) NET PUBLIC SECTOR DEBT (% of GDP) (Central Bank) Industrial Production Index (Base: 2002 = 100) Industrial production (1) INDUSTRY Growth Rates (%) (IBGE) Selected macroeconomic variables Dec/96-Oct/09 Industrial productivity (7) Industry Capacity Utilization (%) (IBRE) (8) Growth Rates (Secex/MICT) Dec/96 0,09 33,3 83,87 1,7-84,0 2,7 6,7-2,98 1,28 1, Dec/97 0,98 34,5 81,16 3,9-83,2 11,0 15,1-4,16 2,13 2, Dec/98-0,01 42,6 79,26-2,0-81,0-3,5-6,2-4,24 3,66 0, Dec/99-3,13 49,7 86,06-0,7-81,5-6,1-14,9-4,32 4,87-0, Dec/00-3,56 48,8 92,66 6,6-82,7 14,7 13,8-3,76 5,08-1, Dec/01-3,67 52,6 86,69 1,6-10,7 80,2 5,7 0,1-4,19 4,06 0, Dec/02-3,96 55,5 93,75 2,7-9,9 80,9 3,7-15,4-1,51 3,29-1, Dec/03-4,37 57,2 98,23 0,4-6,9 81,9 21,1 2,3 0,75 1,83-2, Dec/04-4,59 51,7 106,41 8,3-6,6 84,4 32,0 30,0 1,76 2,73-4, Dec/05-4,83 46,5 109,34 3,1-5,1 83,7 22,6 17,2 1,58 1,71-3, Dec/06-3,88 44,0 109,65 2,8-8,1 84,4 16,2 24,1 1,27 1,76-3, Nov/07-4,21 42,4 130,47 5,5-4,0 87,2 16,6 29,3 0,19 2,75-2, Dec/07-3,97 43,9 116,58 6,0-8,3 86,7 16,8 32,1 0,12 2,59-2, Jan/08-4,14 41,9 118,75 6,3 3,0 84,3 17,0 33,4-0,16 2,73-2, Feb/08-4,18 42,0 114,18 6,8-3,8 84,7 17,8 36,6-0,32 2,65-2, Mar/08-4,47 41,2 123,04 6,6 5,9 85,2 16,3 36,0-0,64 2,64-2, Apr/08-4,25 40,9 124,96 7,0 1,4 85,1 15,3 38,0-0,97 2,63-1, May/08-4,35 40,6 128,53 6,7 1,5 85,6 16,5 40,0-1,00 2,65-1, Jun/08-4,24 40,5 129,51 6,7 0,8 86,3 18,9 43,8-1,22 2,09-0, Jul/08-4,33 40,7 136,50 6,9 4,1 86,1 22,6 46,0-1,29 2,03-0, Aug/08-4,37 40,5 135,10 6,4-1,0 86,6 24,5 48,2-1,44 2,18-0, Sept/08-4,55 37,8 136,17 6,8 0,3 86,3 27,0 50,7-1,63 2,46-0, Oct/08-4,47 36,2 138,29 5,9 0,6 86,3 26,3 50,2-1,68 2,47-0, Nov/08-4,27 34,9 122,10 4,8-9,6 85,2 24,5 45,9-1,63 2,42-0, Dec/08-3,68 38,8 99,40 3,1-15,3 80,6 23,0 41,8-1,79 2,86-1, Jan/09-3,20 36,9 98,00 1,0 1,8 76,7 19,2 35,7-1,75 2,74-0, Feb/09-3,03 37,1 94,98-1,0-0,9 77,0 15,3 27,6-1,71 2,88-1, Mar/09-2,83 40,6 111,06-1,9 15,0 77,1 15,0 24,4-1,56 2,84-1, Apr/09-2,55 41,4 106,44-3,9-3, ,8 17,9-1,38 2,88-1, May/09-2,29 42,6 114,14-5,1 6,5 78,7 4,9 9,2-1,47 3,02-1, Jun/09-2,04 43,3 115,41-6,5 1,3 79,0-0,6 0,2-1,33 2,97-1, Jul/09-1,77 44,0 122,83-8,1 5,9 79,8-7,5-7,7-1,30 2,84-1, Aug/09-1,59 44,0 125,39-8,9 1,6 81,6-12,9-15,3-1,28 2,64-1, Sept/09-1,17 44,9 125,62-10,3-1,0 82,8-18,6-21,6-1,23 2,28-1, Oct/ ,9-22,0-26,4-1,32 2,07-0, SOURCE: IPEA. IBGE. Central Bank. DIEESE. FGV. IBRE. Macrométrica. (1) Percentage change of the last 12 months in relation to previous 12 months. (2) Quarterly rate of investment (at 1990 prices). Rate calculated by the ratio between the index of real Gross Capital Formation and the index of real GDP (both seasonally adjusted fixed base indexes). (3) Individuals who effectively sought for employment in the thirty days prior to the interview and had not worked in any kind of job. (4) Percentage change in relations to the same month of previous yar. (5) R$/basket of 13 currencies: Eurozone, USA, Japan, Argentina, China, South Korea, Russia, Canada, Uruguay, Paraguay, Chile, Mexico, and United Kingdom. (6) Refers to past 12 months. (7) Base: previous month. (8) Monthly data. Exports (1) Imports (1) Current account balance (6) EXTERNAL SECTOR % of GDP (Central Bank) Direct investments (6) Transactions not covered by direct investments (6) International Reserves (International liquidity concept) (US$ millions) (Central Bank) Total External Debt (US$ millions) 4

5 5 ECONOMY OF THE STATE OF RIO GRANDE DO SUL Selected variables Jun/07-Oct/09 MONTHS AND YEARS GDP (1) INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Fixed Base Index (4) Monthly Index (5) Accumulated in the Year (6) ICM (State value-added tax) (R$ millions) Industry Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Total PRICE INDEXES IEPE (7) CUB (Basic Unit Cost) (R$) Jun/07-108,10 106,78 108,37 415,1 323,5 128,0 993,3 88,10 919,60 Jul/07-112,43 108,99 108,46 401,5 281,8 120,8 926,8 88,81 942,88 Aug/07-113,04 106,48 108,20 513,2 236,3 135, ,1 88,95 945,05 Sept/07-100,21 101,59 107,48 434,1 297,5 138, ,5 89,00 948,23 Oct/07-115,45 109,56 107,69 466,6 288,9 132, ,4 89,03 951,56 Nov/07-110,37 106,87 107,62 550,4 320,1 130, ,5 90,04 953,61 Dec/07 7,0 98,53 105,22 107,43 509,5 340,0 121, ,9 90,76 957,09 Jan/08-102,86 108,95 108,95 520,0 336,8 219, ,3 91,71 957,57 Feb/08-105,86 112,17 110,56 511,9 308,3 139, ,0 91,48 959,14 Mar/08-113,20 99,04 106,22 514,4 280,7 117, ,9 92,09 964,44 Apr/08-120,91 107,59 106,59 523,5 368,0 137, ,1 92,77 967,72 May/08-114,61 96,70 104,39 492,2 392,1 129, ,8 94,23 969,38 Jun/08-115,69 107,02 104,83 651,0 303,1 156, ,2 95,53 981,24 Jul/08-119,12 105,95 105,00 449,0 431,3 146, ,7 96, ,71 Aug/08-114,87 101,61 104,56 536,3 340,2 144, ,6 96, ,38 Sept/08-116,12 115,87 105,73 575,8 390,2 154, ,5 96, ,99 Oct/08-118,38 102,53 105,39 547,6 416,4 128, ,5 97, ,21 Nov/08-99,17 89,85 103,95 538,0 482,3 136, ,3 98, ,22 Dec/08 3,8 81,68 82,89 102,35 508,2 368,8 131, ,8 98, ,27 Jan/09-81,60 79,32 79,32 651,5 304,8 194, ,0 98, ,83 Feb/09-84,17 79,51 79,42 531,3 264,6 129, ,4 99, ,34 Mar/09-101,90 90,01 83,15 513,9 276,8 132, ,7 99,61 - Apr/09-104,50 86,42 84,04 666,3 303,1 119, ,4 100,00 - May/09-105,32 91,89 85,65 631,7 284,8 137, ,6 100,44 - Jun/09-104,71 90,50 86,49 554,0 287,5 156, ,8 100,86 - Jul/09-110,02 92,36 87,37 552,8 283,0 149, ,1 100,83 - Aug/09-108,28 94,26 88,24 585,2 295,7 148, ,5 100,51 - Sept/09-105,46 90,82 88,54 588,3 293,8 156, ,3 100,86 - Oct/ ,2 300,7 129, ,1 101,9 - (continue)

6 6 ECONOMY OF THE STATE OF RIO GRANDE DO SUL Selected variables Jun/07-Oct/09 MONTHS AND YEARS BALANCE OF OPENED POSITIONS AND LAYOFFS UNEMPLOYMENT AT RMPA (Porto Alegre Metropolitan Region) Unemployment Rate (%) Open Total AVERAGE REAL EARNINGS AT RMPA (2) Occupied (8) Wage Earners (9) ELECTRICAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION (3) (mwh) Industrial Total EXPORTS (US$ 1 000) Jun/ ,8 14, Jul/ ,3 13, Aug/ ,0 13, Sept/ ,6 12, Oct/ ,5 12, Nov/ ,2 11, Dec/ ,7 11, Jan/ ,4 11, Feb/ ,3 11, Mar/ ,7 11, Apr/ ,0 12, May/ ,2 12, Jun/ ,7 11, Jul/ ,7 11, Aug/ ,3 11, Sept/ ,3 11, Oct/ ,9 10, Nov/ ,7 10, Dec/ ,4 9, Jan/ ,6 10, Feb/ ,8 10, Mar/ ,0 11, Apr/ ,7 12, May/ ,1 12, Jun/ ,5 12, Jul/ ,2 12, Aug/ ,8 11, Sept/ ,4 11, Oct/ ,1 10, SOURCE: FEE. IBGE. MICT. PED-RMPA. Finance Department-RS. IEPE. SINDUSCON. Ministry of Labor and Employment. (1) Refers to the annual growth rate. (2) Prince index used: IPC-IEPE. Values in R$ as of Sept/09. (3) Refers to the total energy consumption data released by the three main power providers in the State (RGE, AES-SUL and CEEE). (4) Base: average 2002 = 100. (5) Base: same month of previous year = 100. (6) Base: same period of previous year = 100. (7) Base: Apr/09 = 100. (8) Excluding wage earners and domestic wage earners employees who had not received their wages during that month, family workers who do not receive wages, and workers who are paid exclusively in cash or in kind. (9) Excluding wage earners who had not received their wages during that month and domestic employees.

7 7 Urban works spending for the cities in the Metropolitan Area of Porto Alegre in 2007 Large urban arrangements are well-known for being areas where there is a concentration of problems whose solutions depend on a combination of measures from federal, state, and city governments. However most of these measures are frequently restricted by the laws that govern the actions of each territorial division. These restrictions have direct consequences for the quality of life of urban citizens. The restrictions are imposed mostly by the sovereignty conferred to city governments. Cities were elevated to the condition of members of the federation by the 1988 Brazilian Constitution. The fiscal revenue of cities is, consequently, a fundamental factor that shapes the ability to carry out combined actions between different spheres of government. According to data from the Database for Metropolitan Fiscal Indexes (Fismet) of the Metropolitan Observatory, investment in #$&%!'(*)!+),.- '/0 +(*120 (.3!'4%0 / ' (!/ 5 6 (%) Spending on urban works according to urban population in Metropolitan Area of Porto Alegre 2007 DESCRIPTION Variation in physical production for foods and beverages in Rio Grande do Sul Jan to Sept 2009 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Legend: Food SOURCE : IBGE, PIM-PF. NOTE : Data based on the same month of the previous year. NUMBER OF CITIES Beverages URBAN WORKS/ /TOTAL SPENDING (1) (%) From 0 to 10, From 10,001 to 50, From 50,001 to 100, From 100,001 to 500, From 500,001 to 1,000, More 7+8$2/9+;:- than < =$ < 1, (POA) >?/3!<$.@40 /0 < SOURCE: FISMET Database. Metropolitan Observatory, July NOTE: Urban works = transportation, water and sewage services, environmental management, urbanization and living. (1) Average number of cities within the population range. Food and beverages grow again in Rio Grande do Sul The food and beverage industries represent an important part of the Rio Grande do Sul manufacturing industry. They combine for 17.0 % of the Industry Transformation Value and formal employment (2006 data). The performance of food and beverages for January to September 2009 in comparison with the same period in 2008 shows that the sector is recovering gradually. The production indexes showed a strong fluctuation during the period, but the trend lines show that there is growth in both sectors. The behavior of the production of beverages fluctuated significant and was very irregular, but positive rates were maintained for the greater part of the period. The production of beverages is directed mostly at the domestic market, and because of the summer season there are positive perspectives for the sector. The behavior of the food sector was less erratic, and it showed mostly negative results. Though the food sector is largely supported urban works (i.e. transportation, water and sewage services, environmental management, urbanization, and living) represent a significant portion of the funds spent by city governments. In the Metropolitan Area of Porto Alegre there is a distortion between what Porto Alegre invests in urban works, which represents 26.8% of the total budget, and what the other cities spend, which represents 11.7% on average (2007 data). Assessment of urban works investments in terms of urban population indicates that there is no significant difference between what the eight largest cities have spent (12.6%), the five intermediary cities have spent (14.0%), and the 14 smallest (10.2%) and three least populous (13.1%) cities have spent. These numbers, which are also similar to other cities around Brazil, indicate the need for broader discussion of the current type of management of investments in Metropolitan Areas. Sheila Borba (FEE/CEES) by the domestic market, there is a significant portion of the production that is directed at the foreign market, especially poultry meats and soybean products. These two segments of the food sector were negatively affected by the worldwide economic crisis. However, the economic crisis did not affect the domestic consumption of foods. One of the reasons that the domestic consumption of foods remains unaffected is that the average income of the Brazilian consumer has been increasing even though caution, and careful spending were the outstanding characteristic of domestic consumers in the face of economic uncertainty. Careful spending by consumers is reflected in the slow pace of the production of foods in the current calendar year. The summer and holidays are expected to boost the production of foods and beverages to the point that the two sectors will be able to reproduce growth numbers achieved before the crisis. The numbers for the month of September already hint at this positive trend. Áurea Breitbach (FEE/CEES)

8 8 The US consumer credit is still shaky Capitalism is credit. It is paramount to believe in the system so that the promises of yesterday become the reality of today, and new promises can be put in contracts and shape the reality of tomorrow. This is how the wheel of fortune goes round and round, indefinitely, for both real and imaginary fortune until at some point in the future the circle of trust is broken. The financial crisis that affected the United States in August of 2007 and turned into an economic crisis during the second semester of 2008 has broken the trust that is necessary for the economic cycle to continue. The mergers and acquisitions of banks have created a more concentrated financial system that is increasingly becoming an example of the maxim that they are too big to fail. Even though there is money available for financial institutions at practically no cost, and the United States government has injected the necessary funds for the commercial survival of institutions that were technically defaulting, there are still no signs of recovery in consumer credit though the downward trend in the economy has ceased. In September of 2009 total consumer credit showed a 7.2 % decrease in comparison to the previous month (annual index, deseasonalized). The worse results were reported by the revolving credit which includes credit card spending: there was a 13.2 % decrease in September in comparison to August. Moreover, consumer interest rates have not been decreasing as expected due to the reduced cost of money for financial institutions. The sales of durable goods and real-estate have been stimulated only by special, short-term programs that bring high fiscal costs. Two examples of these programs are the US vehicle purchase incentive (Cash for Clunkers) and the homeownership incentive for families who did not own real-estate. Even consumers who have high credit ratings do not seem interested in spending in a time where the US unemployment rate has reached 10.2 %, the highest since Not even the wealthiest consumers are willing to spend their money and begin a new cycle of increase in credit in an economy where financial wealth has declined with the falling real-estate prices, and where most of the needs of the population is already met by the existing stock of goods. The lack of recovery in credit is one of the main indicators for an economy where 70.0 % of the product depends on consumption. It is not surprising that there has been a downward revision of the forecasts for GDP growth from 3.5 % to 2.8 % for the third quarter (annual rate in comparison to the previous quarter). It is possible that the worst is behind us even though the list of financial institutions in dire straits includes over 552 small and medium-sized banks and 124 bankruptcies filed for the year. But, at least for the United States, there is still a perspective of consistent recovery in economic activity. (US$ million) Total US consumer credit Jan/06-Sept./ Jan/06 Jul/06 Jan/07 Jul/07 Jan/08 Jul/08 Jan/09 Jul/09 SOURCE : Federal Reserve Bureau, table G.19 ( w w.federalreserve.gov/releases/g19/). André Scherer (FEE/CEES) FEE s MONTHLY LETTER (with information up to ). ISSN FEE s MONTHLY LETTER does not express an official position of the Foundation or of the Planing and Management Secretary, the editorialists are responsible for their opinions. President: Adelar Fochezatto Technical Director: Octavio Augusto Camargo Technical Director Conceição Administrative Director: Nóra Angela Gundlach Administrative Director: Kraemer Monthly Letter s Editorial Board: Octavio Augusto Camargo Conceição, Adalberto Alves Maia Neto, Roberto da Silva Wiltgen and Sônia Unikowsky Teruckin. Nucleus of data: Marilene Gauer (coordinator), Ana Maria de Oliveira Feijó and Jussara Lima do Nascimento. English translation: Augusto Buchweitz. Fundação de Economia e Estatística Siegfried Emanuel Heuser Rua Duque de Caxias, 1691 Porto Alegre - CEP conjuntura@fee.tche.br EDITING Supervision: Valesca Casa Nova Nonnig. Secretary: Vera Lúcia Pires Dalberto. Expedition: Lisete Maria Girotto. Proofreading Coordination: Susana Kerschner. Readers: Maria Inacia Flôr Reinaldo and Sidonia Therezinha Hahn Calvete. Electronic Editing Composition, diagramming and final art: Cirei Pereira da Silveira, Denize Maria Maciel, Ieda Terezinha Koch Leal, Rejane Maria Bondanza Lopes. Checking: Jose Antonio da Silva, Lourdes Teresinha dos Santos and Vera Sonia Silva de Castro. Printing: Cassiano Osvaldo Machado Vargas and Luiz Carlos da Silva.