Go Solar Connecticut! Discussion on Step 4 and Beyond. Meeting with PBI Installers Albert Pope Conference Room October 28 and 29 and November 5, 2013

Transcription

1 Go Solar Connecticut! Discussion on Step 4 and Beyond Meeting with PBI Installers Albert Pope Conference Room October 28 and 29 and November 5, 2013

2 Agenda Public Policy Goal policy versus the market potential (10 minutes) Program Performance progress of the RSIP (15 minutes) CCEF vs. CEFIA Other Results GoSolarCT financing products (15 minutes) Solarize outreach campaigns (15 minutes) RSIP Step 4 proposal for discussion (30 minutes) Installed Cost Projections for 2014 CEFIA Goals What are Installer Goals? Incentive Portfolio Rebate, PBI, incentive cap, leverage ratio, EE Next Steps (5 minutes) 2

3 Solar Connecticut Installer Participation (as of 10/25/13) Eligible Contractor kw of RSIP Total Cost of ($MM) % of the Market Aegis Electrical $ % Astrum Solar 1,044.1 $ % BeFree 1,172.6 $ % Bonner Electric 32.6 $ % CT Electrical 68.6 $ % C-TEC Solar $ % CT Sun and Power 40.0 $ % DCS $ % Elektron Solar 49.6 $ % Encon $ % Evergreen Energy 41.8 $ % Harness the Sun 74.5 $ % Eligible Contractor kw of RSIP Total Cost of ($MM) % of the Market Litchfield Hills $ % Mister Sparky 25.1 $ % Northeast Smart 74.4 $ % PurePoint $ % Real Goods $ % Renewable Res $ % Ross Solar 1,149.6 $ % Sunlight Solar $ % Tuscany Design 48.0 $ % Waldo Renew $ % Total Solar Conn 7,935.7 $ % Total Connecticut 13,487.3 $

4 PBI Installers Installer Participation (as of 10/25/13) Eligible Contractor kw of RSIP Total Cost of ($MM) % of the Market Astrum Solar 1,044.1 $ % C-TEC $ % Encon $ % RGS $ % Renewable Res $ % Solar City 3,287.7 $ % Sungevity $ % Trinity Solar 78.3 $ % Total PBI Installers 7,039.7 $ % Note these are not PBI installations. These are installers who have the ability to use the PBI through either a lease or PPA offering. 1/3 of RSIP projects have been through the PBI incentive. 4

5 Connecticut s Green Bank Doing More with Less and Faster! Over $220 MM invested using $20 MM of CEFIA funds deploying 30 MW in 1 Year Credit Loans and Subsidies Enhancements Leases $13.7 MM $6.4 MM $21.5 MM 33% 15% 52% 5

6 Public Policy Goal Policy vs. the Market Potential

7 Policy Section 106 of Public Act The Clean Energy Finance and Investment Authority established pursuant to section n of the general statutes, as amended by this act, shall structure and implement a residential solar investment program established pursuant to this section, which shall result in a minimum of thirty megawatts of new residential solar photovoltaic installations located in this state on or before December 31, 2022, the annual procurement of which shall be determined by the authority and the cost of which shall not exceed one-third of the total surcharge collected annually pursuant to said section n. REFERENCES 30 MW is equivalent to about 4,300 homes installing 7 kw systems. 7

8 Market Potential Residential Rooftop Solar PV County Resi. Rooftop Percent Mean Size Mean Production Sites Viable (W) (kwh/y) Fairfield % Hartford % Litchfield % Middlesex % New Haven % New London % Tolland % Windham % County Total Size (gw) Total Power (gwh/y) Fairfield Hartford Litchfield Middlesex New Haven New London Tolland Windham Measure Weighted Average Viability 71.43% Size (gw DC) 3.89 Production (kwh/y) GW of residential solar PV today would require an investment of $4.5 billion and reaching 150,000 homes not $1.25 billion in RSIP subsidies available, but there is private capital 8

9 Program Performance Residential Solar PV Investment Program

10 Program Performance CCEF vs. CEFIA (as of 10/25/13) Doing more with less and faster!! 10

11 Program Performance CCEF vs. CEFIA (as of 10/25/13) CCEF CEFIA Program Period # of Installers # of Installers (Lost) / Gained (19) 32 # of 2,019 1,924 Installed Capacity (MW) Total Investment $97.6 MM $61.8 MM Total Incentives and as % Total Investment $45.4 MM 47% $20.1 MM 33% Penetration Rates: Top 5 Installers Top 10 Installers Top 20 Installers Less than 20 Other Fun Facts : # Installers over $1 MM in revenues # Installers over 1 MW installed 72% 87% 95% 8% % 77% 90% 12%

12 Program Performance Other Results (as of 10/25/13) Local vs. National local installers serve 65% of the market (i.e. 1,250 projects, 8.9 MW installed, and $12.7 MM of total incentives) while national installers serve 35% of the market (i.e. 673 projects, 4.6 MW installed, and $7.5 MM of total incentives) Solar Connecticut Members comprise nearly 60% of the market (i.e. 1,111 projects, 7.9 MW installed, and $11.5 MM of total incentives) Installed Costs decreased by over 15% since the middle of 2012 (i.e. $5.35/W) to today (i.e. $4.44/W) rebate installers are 10% lower in installed costs than PBI installers $4.36/W for rebate versus $4.87/W for PBI 12

13 Go Solar Connecticut Financing Products

14 GoSolarCT Financing Product Targets (FY 2014) Installed Capacity (MW) Program Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Total FY 2014 Smart-E and Cozy TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD Solar Lease Solar Loan Total >1.5 >1.7 >2.2 >1.2 >6.6 Number of Program Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Total FY 2014 Smart-E and Cozy TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD Solar Lease Solar Loan Total ,098 14

15 GoSolarCT How do you use your solar savings? What are you using your solar energy savings for? 15

16 GoSolarCT What is your homes solar savings potential? 16

17 GoSolarCT Press Coverage Are Solar Panels Right for Your Home? A Google Maps for Solar Suitability By Brian Dowling TUESDAY, OCTOBER 22, 2013 Ever wondered whether solar panels would work on your house? Or, if you have a strong sense that they would, how do you sort through all the different installers and types of financing available? TUESDAY, OCTOBER 22, 2013 New Website Puts Solar a Click Away for Connecticut Homeowners By Luther Turmelle ROCKY HILL The state s quasi-public agency in charge of overseeing renewable energy in Connecticut launched a new website Monday designed to provide homeowners with information 17

18 GoSolarCT Website Traffic Geostellar Stats Address Searches % of Site Visits that Search Address Through 10/27 2,046 57% Quotes 122 % of Address Searches that Request Quote 6% Press release, beginning of ad campaign 18

19 EnergizeCT.com Website Traffic Visits from GoSolarCT.com to CT Solar Lease, CT Solar Loan and Smart-E Loan pages on EnergizeCT.com

20 GoSolarCT How can you finance your solar system? 20

21 Financing Products Installer Participation Overview (as of 10/25/13) Financing Program # of Eligible Installers # of RSIP % of RSIP kw of RSIP % of kw of RSIP CT Solar Lease % 6, % CT Solar Loan % 5, % Smart-E Loan 33 1,206 63% 8, % Cozy Home Loan 2 17 <1% <1% Total 34 1,233 64% 8, % Financing Products Offering 3 products 7 installers Offering 2 products 11 installers Offering 1 product 16 installers 21

22 GoSolarCT Working Capital to Grow Your Business Webster 1 st Bank to offer CEFIA working capital Borrow up to 50% of CEFIA-financed project cost at prime + 2% (~5.25% today) Per project loan paid back when loan/lease is funded More generous underwriting criteria Wells Fargo Pro-active interest in working with CEFIA eligible contractors for their regular working capital/small business solutions DECD CEFIA partnering with DECD s Small Business Express program on a Growing Your Business Workshop at upcoming 12/3 REEBA Matchmaking event 22

23 Solarize Outreach Campaigns

24 Solarize Phase 1 Consumer Demand 24

25 Solarize Phase 2 Consumer Demand Mansfield 113* Coventry 62 Canton 52 Windham 33* Bridgeport 23* *Totals include one contract in Bridgeport, five in Mansfield, and one in Windham not shown in the graph because they had no approval date recorded. REFERENCE Graphic created by Prof. Kenneth Gillingham & Hilary Staver, Yale University School of Forestry & Environmental Studies (2013) 25

26 (Note - Average installed costs as of 7/31/13; GM Industries avg. = $8.56, New Step Living = N/A; Solar City = $5.02) Solarize Tiered Price Ranges Phase 3 $5.00 $4.80 $4.60 $4.40 Solarize Range $4.20 $4.00 $3.80 $3.60 $3.40 Current Average Cost Statewide Current Average Cost by installer $3.20 $3.00 Tier 5 bid prices were more than 20% lower ($3.64/W) than the current average installed costs ($4.62/W) 26

27 Solarize Toolkit for Community Outreach 27

28 Solarize Installer Participation 28

29 Solarize Next Steps How to scale up and transition program to Open-Market Surveys and focus groups to assess value of roles played by CEFIA/SmartPower and potential transferability of campaign tasks Yale/NYU/CEFIA research under U.S. Dept. of Energy s Solar Energy Evolution Diffusion Study ( SEEDS ) grant Develop & provide tools for towns or installers to conduct campaigns with less input by CEFIA/SmartPower Future phases Solarize Connecticut Classic, Express, and Choice Affinity Groups large employer, university, non-profit organization Solar Hot Water (& other technologies like natural gas) Open Market Q3 of

30 Residential Solar PV Investment Program Step 4 Proposal for Discussion

31 Contractor Installed Cost Projections for 2014 Current Data installed costs on average (not including Solar City or Astrum) for the Top 10 installers 7 are Solar Connecticut members that comprise nearly 50% of the market in terms of installations is $4.29/W Installer Survey issued survey to Solar Connecticut members and received responses from installers that on average is what costs will be in 2014 CEFIA Point of View estimate an average installed cost of between $4.00/W to $4.25/W by the end of 2014 before looking at the data of the top solar installers and developing installer and module supplier survey 31

32 CEFIA Goals What are Installer Goals? Sustainable Market Development avoid the stop-start nature of incentives that were experienced in the past Leverage achieve no less than a 3:1 (25%) leverage of nonratepayer funds to ratepayer funds Costs support strategies that make solar PV more affordable and accessible prefer more projects at less profit margin than less projects at high profit margin Financing shift from subsidy programs over time to low-cost and long-term financing Energy Efficiency incorporate cost effective energy efficiency measures into solar PV projects 32

33 Residential Solar Investment Program Proposed Step 4 Incentive Portfolio Race to the Solar Rooftop CEFIA Board of Directors already approved of 10 MW for Step 4 Rebate no more than an average of about $1.10/W ( 5 kw at $1.25/W PTC ; 5 to 10 kw at $0.75/W PTC ) PBI no more than $200/MWh Leverage Ratio targeting 25% (no cap) Energy Efficiency incorporate measures beyond HES into solar PV projects. CEFIA is looking to sell RECs through a long-term agreement and provide homeowner with a coupon for energy efficiency (i.e. weatherization) or other actions that advance the implementation of the Comprehensive Energy Strategy. 33

34 Race to the Solar Rooftop Commitment to Your Businesses Step1 delivered 1.2 MW using $2.1 million in subsidies (i.e. $1.78/kW) for 180 projects Step 2 delivered 6.5 MW using $10.8 million in subsidies (i.e. $1.65/kW) for 913 projects Step 3 delivered 5.8 MW thus far using $7.3 million in subsidies (i.e. $1.26/kW) for 831 projects with a target of 7.6 MW by the end of 2013 Step 4 set aside 10.0 MW 34

35 Financing Programs Commitment to Your Businesses (for a 7kW system installed at $4.40/W) Smart-E Loan CT Solar Loan CT Solar Lease Not-to-Exceed Rate 6.99% 6.49% N/A Down Payment Required $0 $1,615 $0 Loan Amount $20,950 $20,835 N/A Term (years) Est. 1 st Month Payment [after re-amortization] Est. 1 st Month Net Cost [after re-amortization] $215 $110 $181 [$119] $76 [$8 and decreasing] Assignable No Yes Yes Re-amortization No Yes N/A System performance guarantee Insurance and warranty bundle + lifetime O&M $88 $17 No Yes Yes No No Yes Note: for lease, assumes an extra $0.10/W for extended inverter warranty 35

36 Residential Solar Investment Program Step 4 Requirements and Reporting Market Watch Report CEFIA will report the CL&P and UI standard service rates and will cite 3% as the utility inflation rate as a consumer suggested assumption Marketing Standards Contractors can use EnergizeCT Eligible Contractor graphic on marketing materials Terms and Conditions from the incentive approval notice by CEFIA will be included the terms and conditions in the customer s Contractor Portal tech solution to keep program paperwork, forms, and important updates in a convenient location for installers Program Evaluation CEFIA required by statute to evaluate the performance of the RSIP by January 1,

37 Installer Questions Recently Raised Can CEFIA support provisional access to all installers of the CT Solar Lease calculator? Does GoSolarCT currently link to all installers for the ownership model? How are installers finding HES? Scheduling? Pushback? Do customers take EE audits seriously? Others? 37

38 Next Steps

39 Next Steps Solar Connecticut meet with local installers (October 28 and 29) National Installers meet with national installers (early November) Deployment Committee meet with Chair and Members of the Deployment Committee (mid-november) Board of Directors recommend for approval by the Board of Directors (November 15 th or December 20 th ) DEEP formal written approval of incentive by Commissioner of DEEP (December 1 st or January 1 st ) 39

40 Appendices

41 Subsidy ($/kw) Subsidy Impacts on Market Potential 1/3 of Surcharge Collected Annually $2,000 $1,750 5,714, $1,750 (RSIP Step 1) $1,500 $1,250 8,000, $1,250 (RSIP Step 3) $1,000 $750 $500 $333/kW for 30 MW/year $250 $- - 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 Installed Capacity (kw) 41

42 Customer Willingness to Pay (as of 10/25/13) Calendar Year Approved # kw STC Installed $ Ratepayer Funds/W $ Non- Ratepayer Funds/W $ Total System Cost/W $4.33 $4.28 $ $4.52 $3.62 $ $4.34 $4.36 $ ,228.8 $4.19 $4.52 $ ,139.9 $3.95 $4.24 $ ,354.9 $3.70 $3.88 $ ,178.2 $2.88 $3.39 $ ,568.2 $1.68 $3.67 $ ,565.8 $1.67 $3.14 $ ,142 8,046.5 $1.37 $3.07 $4.44 Grand Total 3,937 26,856.9 $2.44 $3.49 $5.93 Residential solar PV customers are willing to pay between $3.25/W to $3.50/W after incentives. If installed costs are $4.25/W, then between $0.75/W to $1.00/W subsidy shouldn t adversely impact demand. 42

43 Financing Programs CT Solar Lease (as of 10/18/13) Eligible Contractor # of RSIP kw of RSIP Total Cost of Installed Cost per kwstc Aegis Solar Energy $2,828,375 $4,926 Astrum Solar 137 1,044.1 $4,136,371 $3,962 BeFree Green Energy 144 1,172.6 $4,765,546 $4,064 CT Sun and Power $185,000 $4,628 Encon $2,811,997 $4,049 Real Goods Solar $3,092,805 $4,243 Renewable Resources $511,315 $4,169 Ross Solar Group 151 1,149.6 $5,067,269 $4,408 Sunlight Solar Energy $2,384,201 $4,556 Trinity Solar $354,099 $4,523 Total 10 Contractors 829 6,128.1 $26,136,979 $4,265 43

44 Financing Programs CT Solar Loan (as of 10/17/13) Eligible Contractor # of RSIP kw of RSIP Total Cost of Installed Cost per kwstc Aegis Solar Energy $2,828,375 $4,926 All Green It $680,105 $4,087 Astrum Solar 137 1,044.1 $4,136,371 $3,962 C-TEC Solar $3,735,734 $4,212 Elektron Solar $240,635 $4,855 Encon $2,811,997 $4,049 Litchfield Hills Solar $818,616 $5,123 Northeast Smart Energy $230,796 $3,103 PurePoint Energy $572,716 $5,165 Renewable Resources $511,315 $4,169 Ross Solar Group 151 1,149.6 $5,067,269 $4,408 Sound Solar Systems $171,580 $5,146 Sunlight Solar Energy $2,384,201 $4,556 Waldo Renewable $915,199 $5,725 Total 14 Contractors 817 5,749.5 $25,104,910 $4,366 44

45 Financing Programs Smart-E Loan (as of 10/17/13) Eligible Contractor # of RSIP kw of RSIP Total Cost of Installed Cost per kwstc 31 Solar $97,690 $4,313 Aegis Solar Energy $2,828,375 $4,926 All Green It $680,105 $4,087 Astrum Solar 137 1,044.1 $4,136,371 $3,962 Be Free Solar 144 1,172.6 $4,765,546 $4,064 Bella Casa Verde $32,100 $3,934 Bonner Electric $133,691 $4,103 CT Sun and Power $185,000 $4,628 CT Electrical Services $373,343 $5,443 C-TEC Solar $3,735,734 $4,212 DCS Energy $640,120 $4,155 Earthlight Technologies $172,969 $4,086 EcoSmart Home Services $902,176 $4,485 Elektron Solar $240,635 $4,855 Encon $2,811,997 $4,049 45

46 Financing Programs Smart-E Loan (as of 10/17/13) (cont d) Eligible Contractor # of RSIP kw of RSIP Total Cost of Installed Cost per kwstc Endless Mountain Solar $240,643 $5,556 Evergreen Energy $179,507 $4,299 GMI Solar $1,793,766 $8,250 Green Earth Energy $24,000 $4,800 Harness the Sun $322,746 $4,332 Litchfield Hills Solar $818,616 $5,123 Macri Roofing $40,559 $5,344 Made in USA Solar $180,307 $4,513 Next Step Living $82,212 $7,310 Northeast Smart Energy $230,796 $3,103 PurePoint Energy $572,716 $5,165 Real Goods Solar $3,092,805 4,243 Renewable Resources $511,315 4,169 Ross Solar Group 151 1,149.6 $5,067,269 4,408 Skyline Solar $547,201 4,154 46

47 Financing Programs Smart-E Loan (as of 10/17/13) (cont d) Eligible Contractor # of RSIP kw of RSIP Total Cost of Installed Cost per kwstc Sound Solar Systems $171,580 5,146 Sunlight Solar Energy $2,384,201 4,556 Trinity Solar $354,099 4,523 Total 33 Contractors 1,206 8,671.4 $38,165,191 4,401 47

48 Financing Programs Cozy Home Loan (as of 09/17/13) Eligible Contractor # of RSIP kw of RSIP Total Cost of Installed Cost per kwstc CT Electrical $373,343 $5.44 Elektron Solar $240,635 $4.85 Total 2 Contractors $613,978 $