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1 ACCESS TO SUCCESS IN AMERICA: What do the data tell us? Access to Success Provosts Meeting Baltimore, MD January 9, 2014

2 America: Two Enduring Stories

3 1. Land of Opportunity: Work hard, and you can become anything you want to be.

4 2. Generational Advancement: Through hard work, each generation of parents can assure a better life and better education for their children.

5 These stories animated hopes and dreams of people here at home And drew countless immigrants to our shores

6 Yes, America was often intolerant And they knew the Dream was a work in progress.

7 We were: The first to provide universal high school; The first to build public universities; The first to build community colleges; The first to broaden access to college, through GI Bill, Pell Grants,

8 Percent of U.S. adults with a high school diploma

9 Percent of U.S. adults with a B.A. or more Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Educational Attainment in the United States: 2012, Table 2.

10 Progress was painfully slow, especially for people of color. But year by year, decade by decade

11 Percent of U.S. adults with a high school diploma, by race

12 Percent of U.S. adults with a B.A. or more, by race

13 Then, beginning in the eighties, inequality started growing again.

14 Wealthiest US households take greater share of income, while poorest 20% fall backwards Share of Aggregate Income Received by Households 60% 51% Lowest 20% Top 20% 44% Top 5% Percent of Income 40% 20% 17% 22% 0% 4% 3% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplements, Table H-2. Share of Aggregate Income Received by Each Fifth and Top 5 Percent of Households, All Races: 1967 to 2012.

15 In the past four years alone, 95% of all income gains have gone to the top 1%. Source: Stiglitz, Inequality is a Choice, New York Times, October 13, 2013.

16 Instead of being the most equal, the U.S. has the third highest income inequality among OECD nations. Gini coefficient United States Chile Mexico United States Israel Turkey Portugal New Zealand Italy United Kingdom Estonia Australia Poland Spain Ireland Greece Switzerland Belgium France Canada Korea (Republic of) Slovenia Netherlands Hungary Austria Germany Finland Norway Czech Republic Slovakia Sweden Japan Denmark Note: Gini coefficient ranges from 0 to 1, where 0 indicates total income equality and 1 indicates total income inequality Source: United Nations, UN Data 2012,

17 Not just wages and wealth, but social mobility as well.

18 U.S. intergenerational mobility was increasing until 1980, but has sharply declined since. 0.6 The falling elasticity meant increased economic mobility until Since then, the elasticity has risen, and mobility has slowed. Earnings Elasticity Source: Daniel Aaronson and Bhashkar Mazumder. Intergenerational Economic Mobility in the U.S.,1940 to Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago WP : Dec

19 Poverty even stickier for some. Among those starting in the bottom quintile of income, 32% of whites will remain, compared with 63% of blacks. Source: Tom Hertz. Understanding Mobility in America. Center for American Progress: 2006.

20 The US now has one of lowest rates of intergenerational mobility 0.6 Cross-country examples of the link between father and son wages Earnings Elasticity United Kingdom Italy United States France Spain Germany Sweden Australia Canada Finland Norway Denmark Source: Corak, Miles. Chasing the Same Dream, Climbing Different Ladders. Economic Mobility Project; Pew Charitable Trusts, 2010.

21 At macro level, better and more equal education is not the only answer. But at the individual level, it really is.

22 Overwhelming message about what matters in turning this around? Education. Among those who have finished four years of college, there is no racial gap in economic mobility. Both whites and blacks experience very high rates. Source: Upward Intergenerational Mobility in the US. Pew Trusts.

23 College-educated adults earn more Median Earnings by Education Level, 2012 $50,281 $29,766 $36,365 High school graduate, no college Associate degree Note: Earnings data are based on full-time, year-round workers age 25 and older Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Annual Social and Economic Supplement, PINC-03. Educational Attainment-- People 25 Years Old and Over, by Total Money Earnings in 2012, Work Experience in 2012, Age, Race, Hispanic Origin, and Sex, Bachelor's degree

24 And are less likely to be unemployed Unemployment rates of adults age 25 and over, % 8.3% 4.0% Less than a high school diploma High school graduate, no college Bachelor's degree or higher Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment status of the civilian non-institutional population 25 years and over by educational attainment, sex, race, and Hispanic or Latino ethnicity, 2012.

25 They also stand out on the other things we value.

26 College graduates more likely to vote 100% Percent of US Citizens Aged Who Voted in the 2012 Presidential Election by Education Level 80% 60% 40% 20% 23% 29% 50% 63% 0% Less than high school High school/ged Note: Data include both those who are and are not registered to vote. Source: The College Board, Education Pays Some college/associate's degree Bachelor's degree or higher

27 College graduates more likely to volunteer 100% Percent of Adults 25 and Over Who Volunteered in 2012 by Education Level 80% 60% 40% 20% 9% 17% 29% 42% 0% Less than high school High school Some college or associate's degree Bachelor's degree or higher Note: Data represent percentage of total population that reported volunteering during the year ending September 2012 Source: The College Board, Education Pays 2013.

28 College Grads of all races far more likely to be in Very Good or Excellent Health 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 73% 56% 59% 59% 27% 29% 31% 16% Black Latino American Indian White High School Dropout College Graduate Source: Robert Wood Johnson Foundation Commission for a Healthier America, 2009

29 College Grads Even Have Better Mental Health 100% Percentage of respondents reporting themselves to be in excellent mental health 80% 60% 40% 37% 45% 54% 60% 20% 0% High school or less Some college Bachelor's degree Advanced degree Source: Gallup, Strong Relationship Between Income and Mental Health (2007)

30 There is one road up, and that road runs through us.

31 What schools and colleges do, in other words, is hugely important to our economy, our democracy, and our society.

32 So, how are we doing?

33 Over past 30 years, we ve made a lot of progress on the access side.

34 Immediate College-Going Up Percentage of High School Graduates Enrolled in College the Fall After Graduation 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Note: Percent of high school completers who were enrolled in 2-year or 4-year college the October after completing high school Source: NCES, The Digest of Education Statistics 2013 (Table ).

35 College-going is up for all groups.

36 Percentage of High School Graduates Enrolled in College the Fall After Graduation 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Immediate College-Going Increasing for All Racial/Ethnic Groups: 1972 to African American Latino White Note: Percent of high school completers who were enrolled in college the October after completing high school Source: NCES, The Digest of Education Statistics 2013 (Table ).

37 Percentage of High School Graduates Enrolled in College the Fall After Graduation 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% College-Going Generally Increasing for All Income Groups Low-Income High-Income Note: Percent of high school completers who were enrolled in college the October after completing high school Source: NCES, The Condition of Education 2010 (Table A-20-1) and The Digest of Education Statistics 2013 (Table ).

38 But though college-going up for students of color, gains among whites are often larger

39 And though college going up for low-income students

40 Low-Income Students Today Still Not Reaching the College-going Rate for High-Income Students in 1972 Percentage of high school graduates immediately enrolling in college, % 64% 82% 23% Low Income High Income Note: Data for black, Hispanic, and low-income represent two-year moving average because of small sample sizes. Source: NCES, The Condition of Education 2010 (Table A-20-1) and The Digest of Education Statistics 2013 (Table )

41 But access isn t the only issue: There s a question of access to what

42 Students of Color and Pell recipients more likely to begin at for-profits and community colleges Asian White Black Hispanic American Indian Pell recipient Non-Pell recipient % 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% For Profit Public 2-Year Public 4-Year Private 4-Year Other Source: Ed Trust analysis of IPEDS Fall enrollment, Fall 2012 (by race) and IPEDS Student Financial Aid survey, (by Pell recipient status).

43 And what about graduation?

44 Black, Latino, and American Indian Freshmen Complete College at Lower Rates Than Other Students year bachelor s completion rates for first-time, full-time freshmen, Fall 2006 cohort at 4-year institutions Graduation Rates (%) % 40% 52% 71% Overall rate: 59% 40% 10 0 White Black Latino Asian American Indian Source: NCES (December 2013). Enrollment in Postsecondary Institutions, Fall 2012; Financial Statistics, Fiscal Year 2012; and Graduation Rates, Selected Cohorts, , First Look (Provisional Data) Table 3.

45 Graduation rates at public community colleges Graduation Rates (%) % 3 - year completion rates (associate degrees and certificates) for first-time, full-time freshmen, Fall 2009 cohort at public two-year institutions 13% 18% 28% Overall rate: 21.2% 18% White Black Latino Asian American Indian Source: NCES (Dec. 2013). First Look: Enrollment in Postsecondary Institutions, Fall 2012; Financial Statistics, Fiscal Year 2012; and Graduation Rates, Selected Cohorts, , First Look (Provisional Data) Table 3.

46 Chance of attaining a bachelor s degree within six years, among students who begin at community college?

47 Only 14 percent. Bachelor s Attainment Rate (%) Percent of students who started at a community college intending to earn a Bachelor s in 2003 and earned a BA degree by % Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Beginning Postsecondary Students Longitudinal Study, First Follow-up (BPS:04/06).

48 Add it all up

49 Different groups of young Americans obtain degrees at very different rates.

50 Whites attain bachelor s degrees at nearly twice the rate of blacks and almost three times the rate of Hispanics Bachelor s Degree Attainment of Young Adults (25-29-year-olds), % 23% 15% White African American Latino Source: NCES, Condition of Education 2010 (Table A-22-1) and U.S. Census Bureau, Educational Attainment in the United States: 2012

51 And gaps between groups have grown over time.

52 Bachelor s Degree attainment by Age 24 Young people from high-income families earn bachelor s degrees at seven times the rate of those from low-income families. 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 11% Lowest Income Quartile % Highest Income Quartile Source: Postsecondary Education Opportunity, Bachelor s Degree Attainment by Age 24 by Family Income Quartiles, 1970 to 2010, Postsecondary Education Opportunity, 2012.

53 These rates threaten health of our democracy. But even for those who don t care much about that, they are particularly worrisome, given which groups are growing and which aren t.

54 Changing demographics demand greater focus on underrepresented populations. Population Increase, Ages 0-24, (in thousands) Percentage Increase, Ages 0-24, 31, % White 96% Black 50% Latino -5,516 2,312 4, % 15% Asian American Indian Note: Projected Population Growth, Ages 0-24, Source: National Population Projections, U.S. Census Bureau. Released 2008.

55 Not surprisingly, our international lead is slipping away

56 We re relatively strong in educational attainment Percentage of residents aged with a postsecondary degree 100% 80% United States OECD Average 60% 40% 42% 32% 20% 0% Note: Adults with a postsecondary degree include those who have completed either a tertiary-type B program (programs that last for at least two years, are skill-based, and prepare students for direct entry into the labor market) or a tertiary-type A program (programs that last at least three, but usually four, years, are largely theory-based, and provide qualifications for entry into highly-skilled professions or advanced research programs) Source: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Education at a Glance 2013 (2011 data).

57 Our world standing drops to 11 th for younger adults Percentage of residents aged with a postsecondary degree 100% United States OECD Average 80% 60% 40% 43% 39% 20% 0% Note: Adults with a postsecondary degree include those who have completed either a tertiary-type B program (programs that last for at least two years, are skill-based, and prepare students for direct entry into the labor market) or a tertiary-type A program (programs that last at least three, but usually four, years, are largely theory-based, and provide qualifications for entry into highly-skilled professions or advanced research programs) Source: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Education at a Glance 2013 (2011 data).

58 100% We re near the bottom in intergenerational progress Difference in percentage of residents aged and those aged with a postsecondary degree 80% 60% 40% OECD Average United States 20% 0% 10% 2% Note: Adults with a postsecondary degree include those who have completed either a tertiary-type B program (programs that last for at least two years, are skill-based, and prepare students for direct entry into the labor market) or a tertiary-type A program (programs that last at least three, but usually four, years, are largely theory-based, and provide qualifications for entry into highly-skilled professions or advanced research programs) Source: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Education at a Glance 2012 (2010 data).

59 WHAT S GOING ON? Many in higher education would like to believe that these patterns are mostly a function of lousy high schools and stingy federal and state policymakers.

60 They are not all wrong.

61

62 Low Income and Minority Students Continue to be Clustered in Schools where we spend less

63 Funding Gaps Between Districts: National Inequities in State and Local Revenue Per Student High Poverty vs. Low Poverty Districts High Minority vs. Low Minority Districts Gap $773 per student $1,122 per student Source: Education Trust analyses based on U.S. Dept of Education and U.S. Census Bureau data for

64 expect less

65 Low SES students are receiving A s for work that would earn high SES students C s or lower. Estimated Number Right Performance on the HSLS Algebra Assessment by Grade and SES Among Students in 8 th grade Algebra Lowest SES Quintile Highest SES Quintile 10 0 A B C D Source: Education Trust analysis of data from the High School Longitudinal Study of 2009.

66 teach them less

67 Even African-American students with high math performance in fifth grade are unlikely to be placed in algebra in eighth grade Percentage of students who were in the top two quintiles of math performance in fifth grade and in algebra in eighth grade 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 94% 68% 63% 35% African American Latino White Asian Source: NCES, Eighth-Grade Algebra: Findings from the Eighth-Grade Round of the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study, Kindergarten Class of (ECLS- K) (2010).

68 Students of color are less likely to attend high schools that offer physics. Percent of schools offering Physics % High schools with the highest African-American and Latino enrollment 66% High schools with the lowest African-American and Latino enrollment Source: U.S. Department of Education Office of Civil Rights, Civil Rights Data Collection, March 2012.

69 Students of color are less likely to attend high schools that offer calculus. Percent of Schools Offering Calculus Schools with the Fewest Black and Latino Students 55% Schools with the Most Black and Latino Students 29% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Source: U.S. Department of Education Office for Civil Rights, Civil Rights Data Collection.

70 and assign them our least qualified teachers.

71 Core classes in high-poverty and high-minority secondary schools are more likely to be taught by out-of-field teachers 50% Percentage of Classes Taught by Teachers With Neither Certification nor Major 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 41% 30% 17% 16% 0% High Poverty Low Poverty High Minority Low Minority Note: Data are for secondary-level core academic classes (Math, Science, Social Studies, English) across United States. High-poverty 75% of students eligible for free/reduced-price lunch. Low-poverty school 15% of students eligible. High-minority 75% students non-white. Low-minority 10% students non-white. Source: The Education Trust, Core Problems: Out-of-Field Teaching Persists in Key Academic Courses and High- Poverty Schools, (2008).

72 Students at high-minority schools are more likely to be taught by novice teachers 50% Percentage of Novice Teachers 40% 30% 20% 10% 13% 22% 0% Low Minority High Minority Note: Novice teachers are those with three years or fewer experience. High-minority 75% students non-white. Low-minority 10% students non-white. Source: Analysis of Schools and Staffing Survey data by Richard Ingersoll, University of Pennsylvania (2007).

73 Tennessee: High-poverty/high-minority schools have fewer of the most effective teachers and more least effective teachers. Percent of Teachers % 23.8% 21.3% 16% Most Effective Teachers Least Effective Teachers 0 High-poverty/highminority schools Low-poverty/low-minority schools Note: High poverty/high minority means at least 75 percent of students qualify for FRPL and at least 75 percent are minority. Source: Tennessee Department of Education Tennessee s Most Effective Teachers: Are they assigned to the schools that need them most?

74 Los Angeles: LOW-INCOME STUDENTS LESS LIKELY TO HAVE HIGH VALUE-ADDED TEACHERS ELA A low-income student is more than twice as likely to have a low value-added teacher for ELA A student from a relatively more affluent background is 62% more likely to get a high value-added ELA teacher. MATH In math, a student from a relatively more affluent background is 39% more likely to get a high valueadded math teacher. A lowincome student is 66% more likely to have a low valueadded teacher.

75

76 Since 1999, large gains for all groups of students, especially students of color Average Scale Score Year Olds NAEP LTT Reading African American Latino White 1971* 1975* 1980* 1984* 1988* 1990* 1992* 1994* 1996* 1999* *Denotes previous assessment format Source: National Center for Education Statistics, The Nation's Report Card: Trends in Academic Progress 2012

77 260 Since 1999, performance rising for all groups of students 9 Year Olds NAEP LTT Math Average Scale Score African American Latino White * 1978* 1982* 1986* 1990* 1992* 1994* 1996* 1999* *Denotes previous assessment format Source: National Center for Education Statistics, The Nation's Report Card: Trends in Academic Progress 2012

78

79 Average Scale Score Reading: Not much gap narrowing since Year Olds NAEP LTT Reading 230 African American Latino White * 1975* 1980* 1984* 1988* 1990* 1992* 1994* 1996* 1999* *Denotes previous assessment format Source: National Center for Education Statistics, The Nation's Report Card: Trends in Academic Progress 2012

80 Math: Not much gap closing since Year Olds NAEP LTT Math Average Scale Score African American Latino White * 1978* 1982* 1986* 1990* 1992* 1994* 1996* 1999* *Denotes previous assessment format Source: National Center for Education Statistics, The Nation's Report Card: Trends in Academic Progress 2012

81

82 So, too, are misguided government aid policies

83 College costs have increased at 4.5 times 600% the rate of inflation Percent Growth Rate Current Dollars, % 400% 300% 200% 100% 570% 300% 146% 125% 0% College Tuition and Fees Medical Care Median Family Income Consumer Price Index Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Annual Average CPI Index, 2011: Census Bureau, Income, Poverty, and Health Insurance Coverage in the United States: 2012; Table F-6.

84 Federal Pell Grants have failed to keep pace with rising college costs 100% 99% Total Cost of Attendance Covered by Maximum Pell Grant Award 80% 60% 62% 77% 40% 34% 36% 20% 14% 0% Public 2-Year Public 4-Year Private 4-Year Source: American Council on Education (2007). Status Report on the Pell Grant Program, 2007 and CRS, Federal Pell Grant Program of the Higher Education Act: Background, Recent Changes, and Current Legislative Issues, 2011.

85 Why? Not because we re not spending a lot more on student aid. But, rather, because we ve changed who gets those dollars.

86 Indeed, in FY13 $21 billion in federal dollars were diverted to education tax benefits, many of which benefit institutions or wealthier students. Source: Fiscal Year 2014 Analytical Perspectives, Budget of the U.S. Government, Office of Management and Budget, Table Estimates of Total Income Tax Expenditures for Fiscal Years

87 51% of savings from tuition tax credits go to middle- and upper-income families Distribution of Education Tax Credits by Adjusted Gross Income 51% 49% Low-income ($0-49,999) Middle and upper-income ($50,000+) Source: The College Board, Trends in Student Aid 2013.

88 88% of savings from tuition tax deductions go to middle- and upper-income families Distribution of Tax Deduction Savings by Adjusted Gross Income 12% Low-income ($0-49,999) 88% Middle and upper-income ($50,000+) Note: Percentages may not add to 100% because of rounding. Source: The College Board, Trends in Student Aid 2013.

89 At the same time, states also have shifted costs onto students and diverted grant funds away from low-income students Source: The College Board, Trends in Student Aid 2013.

90 Non-need-based grant aid now represents more than a quarter of all state grant aid 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% Need-Based and Non-Need-Based State Grants per Full-Time Equivalent (FTE) Undergraduate Student, to % 90% 87% 86% 85% 83% 81% 78% 76% 76% 77% 74% 73% 72% 72% 72% 72% 72% 71% 74% 30% 20% 10% 10% 10% 13% 14% 15% 17% 19% 22% 24% 24% 23% 26% 27% 28% 28% 28% 28% 28% 29% 26% 0% Source: The College Board, Trends in Student Aid Percentage Need-Based Percentage Non-Need-Based

91 Big Effects, too, from State Disinvestment in Public Higher Education.

92 Percentage Change 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% State funding cuts for higher education mean families pay higher tuition Annual Percentage Changes in State Tax Appropriations for Higher Education Per FTE Student and in Tuition and Fees at Public Four-Year Institutions, Constant 2012 Dollars Appropriations per FTE Tuition and Fees Excluding Federal Stimulus Funds -15% Academic Year Source: The College Board, Trends in College Pricing 2013, Figure 14A.

93 "In this country, every generation has paid for the bulk of the education costs of the generation that came behind it, through taxes or parental support. Now we're saying, 'you're on your own, pay for it out of future earnings,' even though there's not a lot of confidence that those earnings will be as good as in previous years... Is this really the way we should fund education in this country? -Pat Callan, Higher Education Policy Institute Source: The Christian Science Monitor, Student debt: What s been driving college costs so high, anyway?", June 6, 2012,

94 So yes, government policy is part of the problem, too.

95 But colleges and universities are not unimportant actors in this drama of shrinking opportunity, either.

96 For one thing, the shifts away from poor students in institutional aid money are MORE PRONOUNCED than the shifts in government aid.

97 In 2011, four-year public and private nonprofit colleges spent over $21 billion on grant aid. Source: Education Trust analysis of NPSAS:12 using PowerStats. Results based on full-time, full-year, oneinstitution dependent undergraduates.

98 But, they spent a lot of aid on students who didn t need it Source: Education Trust analysis of NPSAS:12 using PowerStats. Results based on full-time, full-year, oneinstitution dependent undergraduates.

99 Public 4-year colleges used to spend more than twice as much on needy students, but now spend more on wealthy students Institutional Grant Aid at Public 4-Year Institutions, (in millions) $1,000 $900 $800 $700 $600 $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 $0 $869 $809 $746 $583 $340 $ Lowest income quintile Highest income quintile Source: Education Trust analysis of NPSAS:96, NPSAS:08, and NPSAS:12 using PowerStats. Results based on full-time, full-year, one-institution dependent undergraduates.

100 Institutional Grant Aid at Private NFP 4-Year Institutions, (millions) Private nonprofit 4-year colleges used to spend more on low-income students, but now spend nearly twice as much on wealthy students $4,500 $4,000 $3,500 $3,000 $2,500 $2,000 $1,500 $1,000 $500 $0 $721 $605 $1,505 $2,331 $2, Lowest income quintile Highest income quintile Source: Education Trust analysis of NPSAS:96, NPSAS:08, and NPSAS:12 using PowerStats. Results based on full-time, full-year, one-institution dependent undergraduates. $4,042

101 Low-income students must devote an amount Family Income Percentile equivalent to 76% of their family income Average Income towards college costs Average Cost of Attendance Average Expected Family Contribution (EFC) Average Grant Aid 0 20% $12,783 $27,428 $13,565 Average Unmet Need After EFC and Grant Aid Average % of Income Required to Pay Out-of- Pocket Expenses 21 40% $36,205 $29,345 $2,138 $12,246 $15,006 46% 41 60% $65,204 $29,804 $8,465 $276 $13,591 76% $8,059 $13,689 33% 61 80% $97,733 $30,719 $16,259 $6,842 $9,465 25% % $185,819 $34,370 $6,041 $35,925 $5,281 17% Source: Education Trust analysis of NPSAS:12 using PowerStats, Results based on full-time, full-ear, one-institution dependent undergraduates at public and private nonprofit four-year colleges

102 So it s not all about the students or about government. What colleges do is important in who comes and who doesn t.

103 Moreover, what colleges do also turns out to be very important in whether students graduate or not.

104 College Completion Rates: 4-Year Colleges Fewer than 4 in 10 (38%) entering full-time freshmen obtain a bachelor s degree from the same institution within 4 years. Within six years of entry, that proportion rises to just under 6 in 10 (58%). If you go beyond IPEDS, and look at graduation from ANY institution, number grows to about two-thirds. Source: NCES (December 2013). Enrollment in Postsecondary Institutions, Fall 2012; Financial Statistics, Fiscal Year 2012; and Graduation Rates, Selected Cohorts, , First Look (Provisional Data) Table 4.

105 Many Four-Year Colleges Have Very High Graduation Rates and Many, Very Low Distribution of Graduation Rates (2012) 6-year bachelor's completion rates for first-time, full-time freshmen, Fall 2006 cohort at 4-year institutions # Institutions Year Grad Rates Source: Ed Trust analysis of IPEDS Graduation Rates

106 Some of these differences are clearly attributable to differences in student preparation and/or institutional mission.

107 Indeed, with enough data on both institutions and students, we can find a way to explain nearly 80% of the variance among institutions. Source: Ed Trust analysis of College Results Online dataset 2011.

108 But when you dig underneath the averages, one thing is very clear: Some colleges are far more successful than their students stats would suggest. Source: Ed Trust analysis of College Results Online dataset 2009.

109 Research Institutions Similar Students, Different Results Median SAT Size % Pell % URM Overall Grad Rate URM Grad Rate Penn State University 1,195 37,763 16% 8.6% 86.7% 74.6 % Indiana University 1,170 31,427 21% 8.0% 72.0% 52.1% University of Minnesota 1,245 30,656 23% 7.6% 70.2% 44.4% Purdue University 1,165 30,812 21% 6.9% 68.1% 54.1% Source: College Results Online, 2013:

110 Research Institutions Similar Students, Different Results Median SAT Size % Pell % URM Overall Grad Rate URM Grad Rate Florida State University 1,185 29,291 28% 25.2% 73.8% 71% University of Arizona 1,085 28,174 32% 23.8% 61.4% 53.1% Source: College Results Online, 2013:

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