The new market situation

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1 The new market situation The impact of the Internet and web driving data growth more rapid than what the telcos predicted New data-oriented network technologies cheaper than SONET Optical networks Gigabit Ethernet Wireless New players with newer and cheaper networks offer less costly connectivity and transport services New carriers rent resources instead of owning The Future of the Internet - 1

2 Past: ILECs on the pre-ip Era Monopoly, high revenue from voice Data a small share of traffic Expensive voice-centric network infrastructure investments (300b$): Copper pairs, SONET Today? ILECs have a high cost network suitable for voice Demand for broadband, voice replaced by , web While ILEC data growth continues, data does not bring in anywhere the revenue that voice does Voice [in number of access minutes] declining Revenues going down while costs are not The Future of the Internet - 2

3 The situation in 2004 mobile operators: fastest penetration, 22% market share (1T) (fixed voice: (50-80% of revenue, 50% of traffic) declining incumbents: share < 50-70% money comes from voice, true fixed voice declining due to mobile, VoIP Termination charges: 1/3 of total revenue, artificially high how can telcos use a new disruptive technology which cannibalizes their revenues? current telco model: 10% content creation, 30% transport, 50% aggregation and delivery, 10% service bundling and customization strategy: retain control by reducing access BW The Future of the Internet - 3

4 Local loop competition: Cable TV (I) Industry analysts have been predicting the entry of cable television in telephony for many years Despite numerous trials, such entry in traditional telecommunications services has not materialized Reasons for this: Cable television providers needed to upgrade their networks from analog to digital Second, they need to add switching Third, most of the cable industry has taken a high debt load and is unable to make the required investments in the short run The Future of the Internet - 4

5 Cable TV (II) Cable television will have a significant advantage over regular telephone lines. Cable TV lines that reach home have higher bandwidth than regular phone lines. This is crucially important for web applications. Cable companies are utilizing this capacity to provide bundles of Internet and traditional TV services. But often (soon to change) no two-way communication, services rely on a telephone line for transmissions from the home to the ISP which are expected to require low bandwidth. The Future of the Internet - 5

6 Horizontal and vertical integration Mergers and coalitions not any more the trend! mergers tend to break! Examples: AT&T and BT Sprint and MCI/WorldCom (intended) Bell Atlantic and Vodafone Airtouch With content providers [infotainment industry] AOL and Time Warner Largest merger in history (will break) Comcast bid for Disney The Future of the Internet - 6

7 A perspective on the future of communications

8 The future of the market To each home a single broadband IP pipe? Japan Yahoo BB: 45Mbps 37$, Korea 80% broadband what is the effect on the communication market? Who is the leader? cable companies! coax cable: easy to transport voice, data, ILECs in worst position cooper worst than cable heavily regulated (unbundling) disincentive to invest The Future of the Internet - 8

9 The future of voice Will there be a long-term stand-alone business for voice? in an all-ip network, marginal cost of voice = zero under competition, price of voice will be almost zero existing free p2p solutions: Skype Not free voice because access not very competitive (changes with WiFi) customers lack choice possible taxation by local authorities Killer strategy of the cable companies vs. the ILECs offer free voice! but they love to charge prolong life of ILECs The Future of the Internet - 9

10 Strategy of cable Power of content distribution falls vs content provisioning in all-ip world content providers can establish direct relationships with customers, have more choices no cable operators wants to become a IP packet pusher degrade standard internet access, offer differentiated services, premium IP for content incentives to break the IP network! The Future of the Internet - 10

11 The ILECs Difficult position current IP access too thin to provide video excess regulation allow access to competitors to physical assets Cellular, VoIP an other threat Only alternative: begin investment in optical-ip networks no regulation for new assets enter video market! still high market capitalization Best example: BT 21CN project The Future of the Internet - 11

12 New players Microsoft: WM9 codec + DRM control user interface Who will make money from video over IP aggregation and distribution? Microsoft cable companies (one click ordering) other content aggregators The Future of the Internet - 12

13 Important topics

14 Customer-Owned IP Networks (I) New kind of `bottom-up network, users controlled DWDM allows customers to own and control lambdas (as part of a condominium, municipality) The network is an asset Built in Canada, Sweden, USA, Holland Municipalities take the risk: build networks and lease IRU Participation of universities and research institutions The Future of the Internet - 14

15 Customer-Owned IP Networks (II) Market drivers: Low cost [1000% reduction of current telecom prices] LAN easily connects with WAN (no SONET/ATM) New applications and services can be provided Governments role: support and subsidize their construction regulate access conditions to ensure free and fair competition (carrier-neutral interconnection facilities) The Future of the Internet - 15

16 Wireless access BWIA and fiber: near perfect complements low maintenance, high bandwidth License exempt wireless b (`WiFi ) other technologies for BWIA Spectacular failures in the past but new cheaper and more effective technologies No expensive spectrum licenses, different philosophy A p2p paradigm create local blankets of bandwidth outside the control of local loop providers Could it unleash the bottled-up bandwidth genie? The Future of the Internet - 16

17 The future of Open standard: same as Ethernet in the 80s, x86 computing architecture WiFi will likely be embedded in every electronic product under the sun: pervasiveness! Vendors that build supporting infrastructure and applications will come to assume that WiFi is on board, further entrenching the standard. As a client technology, will increasingly be considered "free." The Future of the Internet - 17

18 and 3G Not completely competitive or complementary Balance of power? Strong similarity between the rise of and that of the personal computer: the commitment of an entire industry to a single open-standard- architecture is very versatile Economics of extremely favourable operates on unlicensed spectrum the price of customer equipment is rapidly approaching zero PC industry has a vested interest in seeing dominate over 3G Primary locations for 3G already taken up by The Future of the Internet - 18

19 Summary: the big picture Internet initially conceived as a bottom-up network decentralized, edge value-adding, no central control besides congestion management Telcos need user control, top-down definition of services no money in the middle, `the paradox of the stupid network, telephony service business model, do more value adding monopoly (duopoly) in access, control interconnection as much as possible Economic picture currently grim Telcos: large investments in expensive voice-centric infrastructure, fear of new data business, keep prices high for data, impede competition CLECs: hard to compete with ILECs IXCs: high investments in fiber, wrong business models no broadband `ramps (no holistic approach) low demand for BW (last mile problem, high prices by ILECs) extremely competitive large amounts (200b$) paid for spectrum licenses, slow 3G penetration Key factor the introduction of broadband: the chicken and the egg problem New technologies may be disruptive optical IP networks, p2p, broadband wireless LANs decrease possibilities of central control, community owned optical networks, asset based Customer role: consumer vs, user (active communication vs. passive reception) Demand and infrastructure aggregation, publicly owned, competition in services? New cash-rich players enter the picture? The Future of the Internet - 19

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