On Adjustment Costs Carl Davidson and Steven J. Matusz Michigan State University April 2001

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1 On Adjusmn Coss Cl Dvidson nd vn J. Musz Michign Univsiy Ail 00

2 vn h mos sidn dvocs of f d would dily dmi h i ks im fo conomis o h nfis fom d lilizion. As d ns chng, som woks los hi jos nd mus sk mloymn in xnding scos. h my som css in which hs woks nd o ool in od find nw jos. Of cous, whil sching fo mloymn nd/o ining, hs woks do no oduc ny ouu. As sul, duing h djusmn ocss, h my iod duing which nionl wlf flls low is iniil lvl. Rcn sch suggss h h sonl cos of wok dislocion my qui high. Jcoson, ond nd ullivn 993, find h h vg dislocd wok suffs loss in lifim nings of $80,000. Y, s disuing s his finding my, i lls us nohing ou h ggg coss of djusmn. I is qui ossil fo individul woks o los g dl whil h sm im h conomy is suffing only mino ggg djusmn coss. Nvhlss, hos who oos d lilizion ofn oin o such sonl losss, long wih wg losss o hos who min mloyd in imo coming indusis, nd sk whh h gins fom f d lly woh such coss. Acdmic conomiss nd o dismiss such concns y ih suggsing h h ggg coss of djusmn oly vy smll comd o h gins fom d o y oining ou h h gins fom d lwys lg nough h w cn fully comns ll hos who suff sonl losss wihou xhusing h gins. Unfounly, h olms wih oh of hs gumns. h l gumn ignos h fc h such comnsion ly, if v, ks lc. And, h olm wih h fom gumn is h h is lmos no solid sch on which o s such clims. h is, w know vy lil ou h mgniud nd sco of ggg djusmn coss. sims of ggg djusmn coss. h wo min coniuions Mg 97 nd Bldwin, Mui, nd Richdson 980, oh of which follow simil A num of uhos hv md o msu djusmn coss wihin scific indusis., fo xml, d Mlo nd 990 who focus on h U xil, uo nd sl indusis o cks nd

3 och. Fis, sims w md ou h num of woks who would los hi jos du o lilizion. hs jo losss w hn vlud sd on n oi msu of h dislcd woks wgs. Finlly, h uhos hn ssumd h hs woks would find mloymn f lngh of im dmind y sims of h vg duion of unmloymn. Boh s conclud h djusmn coss oly vy smll whn comd o h gins fom lilizion. Fo xml, wih 0 cn discoun, hy oh sim h h sho un coss of djusmn would wy no mo hn 5 cn of h long un gins fom d. I is hd o know wh o mk of hs sims. Nih ms o k ino ccoun ih h im o souc coss h involvd in h ining h dislocd woks my focd o go hough. h souc cos of jo sch is lso ignod. Moov, sinc h mloymn ocss is no modld, i is hd o k ino ccoun ny dislcmn h my occu s dislocd woks find mloymn in nw scos. h oh olms s wll, u ll sm fom h sm sic issu sinc h is no modl of h djusmn ocss undlying hs sims, h my mny gnl quiliium sillov ffcs h no ing cud. his is no inndd s ciicism of hs s. A h im h hs s w win, igoous modls h xlicily llow fo h d ficions nd infomionl symmis h ld o quiliium unmloymn w only in hi infncy. I would hv n difficul o xnd h y of gnl quiliium modls yiclly usd fo d nlysis o llow fo quiliium unmloymn nd ining. h miicl och dod y hs uhos ws nily oi givn h s of h d liu h im. Wins 99 who sudid h Biish foow indusy. In ddiions, djusmn coss hv lyd ol in num of imon ds. Fo xml, h is lg liu dvod o h issu of whh i is o liliz d gdully o ll onc. h nsw o his qusion dnds on h nu of h djusmn ocss nd h y of djusmn coss fcd y lo s, fo xml, Flvy nd Kim 99; K nd Pul 994; i nd My 996; nd, Fuusw nd i 999 fo cn coniuions o his d. owv, non of hs s m o dmin h siz nd sco of ggg djusmn coss.

4 Ou gol in his is o uild on cn dvncs in h hoy of quiliium unmloymn y sning siml gnl quiliium modl of d h includs unmloymn nd ining. W hn us h modl o xlo h sco nd mgniud of djusmn coss liv o h gins fom d. In ou modl, woks diff in iliy nd jos diff in h ys of skills hy qui. Woks so hmslvs y choosing occuions sd on xcd lifim incom. hs woks hn cycl wn iods of mloymn, unmloymn nd ining wih h lngh of ch lo mk s dmind y h unov s in ch sco. On of h dvngs of h modl is h i is siml nough o llow us o solv nlyiclly fo h djusmn h coss sdy ss; hy llowing us o clcul h djusmn coss ssocid wih d fom. Anoh dvng is h mny of h modl s ky ms, h lo mk unov s, osvl, so h w cn ly on xising d o dmin hi likly vlus. owv, on of h shocomings of h modl is h h fw xising sims on which o s ou ssumions ou h souc nd im coss ssocid wih ining nd hs vlus ly imon ols in ou nlysis. W hfo solv h modl fo wid viy of ssumions ou hs vlus nd look fo conclusions h ous. uisingly, wih vn ou mos mods ssumion concning ining coss, w find h hi inclusion in h modl significnly incss ou sims of ggg djusmn coss. Fo xml, w find h whn w k h im cos of ining ino ccoun ou sim is h h sho un djusmn coss moun o ls 0 o 5 cn of h long un nfis fom lilizion. Whn h souc coss of ining kn ino ccoun s wll, ou sims of h sho un coss jum o 30 o 90 cn of h long un gins fom f d! In h l of h w un o ld issu, nd sk whh h is ny wy o know ioi which y of conomis likly o fc livly lg djusmn coss. W fing o h lius on ding ficion sch hoy, fficincy wgs, nd insid/ousid modls of h lo mk, mong ohs. 3

5 o mks nd h insiuions h govn hm vy gly coss h wold. Jos nd o ls long in h U.. hn hy do in uo nd Jn. h vg duion of unmloymn is livly sho in h U.., whil i cn qui long in som uon counis. h imlicion is h ll lo mk unov s nd o high in h U.. hn hy in mos uon counis. In ddiion, wgs mo flxil in U.. lo mks hn hy in hi uon couns. Consqunly, lo conomiss yiclly chciz U.. lo mks s flxil whil uon lo mks considd sluggish. On would xc h h flxiiliy of h lo mk would ly ky ol in dmining h liv imonc of djusmn coss. W invsig his issu y dmining how h io of djusmn coss o h gins fom d vis s unov s incs unifomly. In ou modl, w find, somwh suisingly, h h is non-monoonic lionshi wn lo mk flxiiliy nd h liv imonc of djusmn coss wih h io of djusmn coss o nfis high in conomis wih sluggish lo mks hn hy in conomis wih ih flxil o slohful lo mks. Fuhmo, w find h h n nfis fom d fom hv h sm nonmonoonic lionshi so h conomis wih sluggish lo mks gin h ls fom lilizion. W lso show h hs lionshis o ous o h mnn in which iliy ffcs n ouu. o do so, w consid wo modls, on in which ouu is incsing in iliy in ll scos nd noh in which ining coss wihin sco dcsing in iliy, nd show h hs non-monoonic lionshis is in oh sings. Alhough h coml gumn is f mo comlx, hs non-monoonic lionshis o hv hi oos in h mnn in which iffs diso conomis wih diffn dgs of lo mk flxiiliy. W find h in oh of ou modls iffs diso slohful nd flxil lo mks mo hn sluggish ons. h movl of h iff hfo gns lg nfis in such conomis; in fc, hy vn lg nough o swm h slohful conomy s 4

6 high lvl of sho un djusmn coss. As sul, i is h conomis in h middl, hos wih sluggish lo mks h gin h ls fom d lilizion.. h Modl A. Bckgound In dvloing ou modl, w hv svl gols in mind. Fis, w wn o us gnl quiliium d modl h is ich nough o cu som ssnil fus of h mloymn ocss. In icul, w wn modl h xlicily llows fo oh ining ocss in which woks cqui h skills quid o find jo nd sch ocss hos sm woks mus go hough o find n mloy. cond, w wn o k h modl siml nd cl in od o l o solv nlyiclly fo h nsiion h coss sdy ss. his llows us o clcul h djusmn coss ssocid wih d fom. hid, w wn h modl o gnl nough o llow fo coss-couny diffncs in lo mk sucu so h w my invsig h lionshi wn lo mk flxiiliy nd djusmn coss. h sic sucu of h modl is s follows. W hv n conomy in which woks wih diffing iliis mus choos wn wo ys of jos hos h do no qui mny skills nd off low y, nd hos h qui significn ining nd y livly high wgs. Jos in h low-ch sco sy o find, do no ls vy long h is high unov nd qui skills h jo scific. In cons, high-ch jos livly hd o find, sumly cus h mching olm is hd o solv, ls long onc mloymn is scud nd qui cominion of jo scific nd gnl skills. W ssum h in ch sco high-iliy woks oduc mo ouu hn hi low-iliy couns. Und cin ssumions, his imlis h in quiliium woks so hmslvs so h high-iliy woks in fo high-ch jos whil low-iliy woks dwn o h low-ch sco. W gin y ssuming h h low-ch sco is ocd y iff. his iss h un o ining in h sco nd cuss som woks who should in in h high-ch sco 5

7 o sk low-ch jos insd. Whn h iff is movd, hs woks shif o h high-ch sco. his shif is gdul, howv, sinc hs woks will fis hv o n h high-ch ining ocss nd hn sch fo jos. In ddiion, mny of h woks who my vnully wn o shif scos my ldy hold low-ch jos nd sinc ining nd sch cosly, hy my choos o wi unil hy los hi low-ch jos fo mking h swich. As sul, i my k significn im fo h conomy gs clos o h nw sdy s. In his sing, djusmn coss msud y coming wh h conomy could gin if i could jum immdily o h nw sdy s wih wh i cully gins king ino ccoun h cosly nsiion h i xincs in moving o h nw sdy s. B. Fomlizing h Modl nd Finding h Iniil dy W consid coninuous im modl of smll on conomy consising of wo scos nd singl fco of oducion, lo. W us i o dno wok i s iliy lvl nd w ssum h i is unifomly disiud coss [0,] wih h ol msu of woks quling. o oin jo in ih sco, woks mus fis cqui h quisi skills. ining is cosly, oh in im nd soucs. In sco j, woks sking jo mus y flow cos of j c j whil ining wh j dnos h ic of good j so h sco j ining coss msud in unis of h sco j good. h lngh of h ining ocss is ssumd o ndom, wih sco j ins xiing j. his imlis h h vg lngh of ining in sco j is / j. Ou noion h ining is mo cosly oh in im nd soucs in sco, h high-ch sco, is cud y ssuming h c nd smll whil c nd lg w will mo cis low. W us j o dno h msu of woks ining in sco j im. 6

8 Af xiing h ining ocss, woks mus sch fo mloymn. 3 Jos in h low-ch sco lniful, so h jos found immdily. 4 In cons, i ks im o find high-ch jos nd w us o dno h jo cquisiion in h sco. I follows h h vg sll of sco unmloymn is /. W us o dno h msu of woks sching fo high-ch jos im. Onc jo is found, y i sco j wok oducs flow of q j i unis of ouu s long s sh mins mloyd. inc ouu is incsing in i, high iliy woks oduc mo hn hi low iliy couns in ch sco. 5 his ouu is sold j nd ll of h vnu gos o h wok in h fom of nd incom so h h sco j wg nd y y i wok is j q j i. co j woks los hi jos j, so h h vg duion of sco j jo is / j. inc high-ch jos ssumd o mo dul hn low-ch jos, i follows h >. h msu of woks mloyd in sco j im is dnod y j. Uon sion, wok mus in if h skills jo scific. In cons, if h skills gnl, sh cn immdily gin o sch fo mloymn. As nod ov, w ssum h h skills cquid duing low-ch ining jo scific. W mk his ssumion cus, o us, i sms nul. Whil ining, so clk my nd o ln h lyou of h so in which sh is mloyd, h ocdus involvd in oning nd closing h so, h funcioning of icul y of csh gis, nd so on; u, in gining his knowldg h wok lns nohing ou how o fs food o fom oh low-skill sks. In cons, high-ch woks lik ccounns, mngs nd lwys ll mus coml 3 h ssumion h h ining ocss ks lc fo sch is no cucil fo h nlysis. W could ssum insd h ining ks lc f comlion of sch wihou ling h nu of ou suls. 4 Of cous, mny low-iliy woks fc difficuly finding ny jo whsov nd hfo fc long xcd duion of unmloymn whnv hy los hi jo. W liv h his is lgly du o hi wok hisoy nd ovll iliy lvl. By ssuming h low-ch jos lniful so h sco mloymn cn found immdily, w ying o cu h noion h h mginl wok who hs h iliy o in fo high ch jo would l o find mnil mloymn qui sily if sh chooss o do so. 5 Ailiy could f o ius h h wok is on wih, o i could f o cominion of ius h ih inn o cquid duing h lmny ducion ocss. 7

9 collg nd oin som os-gdu ducion. If hy los hi jo, mny of hs woks will l o oin mloymn in h sm fild nd in doing so hy will no quid o go ck hough school. Moov, vn if hs woks choos o chng occuion, hy will hv cquid som gnl skills long h wy h my llow hm o lnd nw jos wihou cquiing ddiionl skills. h imlicion is h ll unmloyd low-ch woks nd o in in od o find mloymn, whil som high-ch woks cn mov ino nw jo wihou hving o in. o mk his cis, w ssum h wih oiliy φ high-ch woks nd no in f losing hi jos. h dynmics of h wo lo mks dicd in Figus nd. h voluion of h lo mks ov im cn dscid wih h id of hs figus. X & dno h gowh of X im. hs gowh s cn found y coming h flows ino nd ou of ch lo mk s. Fo xml, in sco, h flow ou of ining is qul o h msu of woks who coml h ining ocss nd k low-ch jos,. h flow ino ining is qul o h msu of low-ch woks who los hi jos du o xognous sion,. I follows h h gowh of low-ch ins is givn y & imil logic cn usd o find h gowh s of mloymn, &, nd h unmloymn ool in sco, &. W hv & 3 & φ In, h flow ino high-ch mloymn consiss of sching woks who find mloymn,, whil h flow ou is md u of mloyd high-ch woks who los hi jos,. In 3, h flow ino h ool of schs is md u of hos who coml h high-ch ining ocss,, nd hos woks who los hi high-ch jos u do no hv o in 8

10 cus hi skills nsfl, φ. h flow ou of unmloymn is qul o h msu of high-ch schs who find jos,. 6 Finlly, in sco, woks ih mloyd o ining, whil in sco, hy mloyd, ining, o sching. hus, w hv h following dding u condiions wh j dnos msu of sco j woks im : 4 5 In Andix A w show how h diffnil quions in 5 cn usd o solv fo nsiion h coss sdy ss. Bu, o do so, w mus fis xlin how o solv fo nd. hs vlus dmind y h hvio of individul woks, who choos hi occuions sd on h lifim incom h hy xc o n in ch sco. Whn woks iniilly n h lo mk hy hv no skills. hus, hi iniil choic dnds on h liv vlus of V nd V, which msu h xcd lifim incom fo woks ining in scos nd, scivly. If w dfin V s h xcd lifim incom fo sco woks who cunly sching fo jo nd us V j o dno h xcd lifim incom fo mloyd woks in sco j, hn w hv h following ss vlu quions wih dnoing h discoun 6 V c [ V V ] V& 7 V qi [ V V ] V& 8 V c [ V V ] V& 9 V [ V V ] V& 0 V qi [ φv φ V V ] V& 6 imil gowh quions fo low-ch mloymn nd ins in sco could lso dfind. owv, givn h dding u condiions in 4 nd 5 hy would dundn. 9

11 0 In 6-0, h fis m on h igh hnd sid sns cun incom. Fo mloyd woks, cun incom is qul o h vlu of h ouu hy oduc j q j i fo y i wok in sco j. ins nd sching woks n nohing whil unmloyd, nd ins mus y ining coss whil cquiing hi skills. hus, cun incom fo schs is qul o zo whil ins los hi ining coss. h scond m on h igh hnd sid of ch quion is h oduc of h cil gin o loss fom chnging lo mk sus nd h which such chngs k lc. Fo xml, h flow fom sching o mloymn in sco is whil h cil gin ssocid wih mloymn is V V. No h fo woks who mloyd in h high-ch sco, h wo ossiiliis whn hy los hi jo. Wih oiliy φ hs woks in hi skills nd gin o sch fo nw jo immdily, whil wih h mining oiliy hy mus in fo hy cn sk nw jo. h finl m on h igh hnd sid, h V & m, sns h gowh of V. his m cus h ciion o dciion of h ss vlu ov im nd i is qul o zo in sdy s. In od o dsci h iniil sdy s quiliium, w now s ch V & m in 6-0 qul o zo nd solv fo h xcd lifim incom ssocid wih ch lo mk s. W oin } { c q V i } { c q V i } { 3 c q V i φ } { 4 c q V i φ } ] [ { 5 c q V i φ

12 wh nd φ. Unmloyd woks wih no skills choos o in in h low-ch sco if V mx{ V,0} nd hy choos o in in h high-ch sco if V mx{ V,0}. Woks wih iliy lvls such h mx{ V, V } sy ou of h lo mk sinc i is 0 oo cosly fo hm o in fo ny jo. hs woks ffcivly shu ou of h lo mk h no jos vill fo hm o in fo sinc hi ining coss would xcd ny incom h hy could xc o n f finding mloymn. As fo mloyd nd sching woks, w ssum h hy f o chng occuions ny im, u ch im hy do so hy mus s ou y ining. I follows h, in quiliium, hs woks nv swich scos. In fc, smll chngs in ms o wold ics nv sul in schs o mloyd woks chnging occuions ll lo llocion involvs woks who in h ining ocss. o coml h chcizion of quiliium w mus lc som sicions on ou ms. Wh w hv in mind is modl in which high-iliy woks suid o oduc h high-ch good. I is cl fom nd 5 h V nd V lin nd incsing in i. Moov, in ch sco h is ciicl vlu fo i, dnod y j, low which V j i < 0. Woks s in h dsid wy if V is s hn V h iniil wold ics nd if <. his is h cs if q < q nd c q < [ - φ ]c q. Wih hs wo ssumions in lc, V nd V s dicd in Figu 3. No h w hv dfind wo nw ms, nd, wih nd is h iliy lvl fo h wok who is jus indiffn wn ining in sco o sco, h is V V. Fom Figu 3, i is sy o s h woks wih iliy lvls low do no n h lo foc. Fo hs woks, h cos of ining fo ny jo is oo high. Woks wih iliy

13 lvls ], [ i find h low-ch sco mo civ nd choos o in in sco. I follows h. Finlly, woks wih iliy lvls ov find h high-ch sco livly mo civ. hs woks in fo high-ch jos, so h. W cn now un o -5, s h & ms qul o zo nd solv fo h msu of woks in ch lo mk s in h iniil sdy s. W oin φ φ 9 φ 0 φ wh, fom nd 5, ] [ q q c c φ nd q c. hs vlus cn now usd o dmin h vlu of ouu n of ining coss in h iniil sdy s, Y. inc h vg low-ch wok oducs / unis of ouu whil h vg high-ch woks oducs / unis, w hv } { } { c q c q Y

14 Finlly, nionl wlf in h iniil sdy s is givn y W Y /. In Andix B, w show h h lissz-fi quiliium is fficin, so h W is mximizd und f d. C. Adjusmn Chngs in wold ics cus h V j cuvs in Figu 3 o ivo wih h oin which V j 0 mining fixd. hus, if w ssum h sco is iniilly ocd y iff, hn whn d is lilizd h V cuv ivos down cusing o fll. If w us N o dno h nw vlu of, hn ll woks wih iliy lvls in h invl [ N, ] vnully wn o swich fom h low-ch o h high-ch sco. ins swich immdily whil hos mloyd in h low-ch sco swich only f losing hi jos ssuming h h iniil iff is smll. Bcus of h modl s siml sucu, i is ossil o slov nlyiclly fo h nsiion h coss sdy ss. W gin y noing h ll V ms jum immdily o hi nw sdy s vlus onc d is lilizd. his is du o h fc h hs vlus dnd only on ics, iliy, unov s nd oh ms h indndn of im s -5. hus, jums o is nw vlu immdily s wll. h gdul nsiion o h nw sdy s occus in h lo mk, wh h msus of ins, schs nd mloyd woks chng ccoding o h diffnil quions in -5. W ovid h soluion his sysm of diffil quions in Andix A. Givn his soluion, w cn clcul h vlu of ouu n of ining coss long h nsiion h, Y. W hv Y N qi c N d i N qi c N d i Wlf f lilizion, king h djusmn h ino ccoun, is hn W Y d. A h ls s in solving fo h cos of djusmn is o com W A wih h wlf h h conomy could chiv if i w l o jum immdily o h nw f d sdy- 3

15 s quiliium W F. o find his vlu, dfin Y F s h vlu of ouu n of ining coss in h nw sdy s quiliium. his vlu is givn y wih N lcing. I follow h W F Y F /. yicl im hs fo Y, Y nd Y F dicd in Figu 4. ilizing d incss sdy s n ouu fom is iniil vlu of Y o is nw f d vlu of Y F his mus h cs sinc h f d quiliium is fficin. owv, o ch h nw sdy s, h conomy mus fis go hough cosly nsiion wih n ouu following long h Y h. No h h is iod of im u o * duing which n ouu flls low is iniil sdy s vlu. h onil gin fom d fom is dfind y h oly discound low Y F nd ov Y ; o, W F W. h cul gin is h oly discound diffnc wn h s low Y nd Y; o, W A - W. I follows h ggg djusmn coss msud y h oily discound low Y F u ov Y; o, W F - W A. 7 In h nx scion, w simul h modl nd clcul ggg djusmn coss nd com hm o h onil gins fom fom. 8 W do so y focusing on wo ky vils h io of ggg djusmn coss o h onil nfis fom d fom dfind y R * in 3 low nd *, which msus h lngh of im i ks fo h conomy o g ck o is oiginl lvl of n incom so h * solvs Y Y * 0. By looking * w l o g som sns s o how long i ks h conomy o gin o h nfis fom lilizion. 3 R * W W F F W W A D. nhs nd Wknsss of ou Modl 7 his mhod fo clculing djusmn coss ws suggsd y Ny In Dvidson nd Musz 00 w xlo oh scs of h djusmn h including h im hs of mloymn nd unmloymn duing h djusmn iod. W show, fo xml, h ovshooing is common fu of djusmn in ou modl. 4

16 A his oin, i is usful o highligh som fus of ou modl h w consid snghs s wll s som of h wknsss. h svl civ fus h woh mhsizing. Fis, w hv modld h ining nd sch ocsss h woks mus go hough in od o find jos. his llows us o k ino ccoun oh h im nd souc coss h dislocd woks mus incu f losing hi jos. his is uniqu nd innoviv fu of ou modl nd w consid i on of is min snghs. h scond imon fu is h w hv modld hs ocsss nd mngd o k h fmwok livly siml nd cl. In fc, i is so siml h w cn solv xlicily fo h nsiion h wn sdy ss y solving h diffnil quions in -5. Anoh civ fu of ou modl is h mny of h ky ms, fo xml, h lo mk unov s, osvl. his mks i sy o cli h modl nd find sims of ggg djusmn coss fo m vlus h hv som moiicl significnc. Moov, s w mhsizd in h inoducion, i is wll known h lo mks in uo, h Unid s nd Jn diff significnly in hi sucu nd h much of h diffnc hs o do wih diffncs in unov s. inc i is hs unov s h div ou modl, w cn sily modl h diffncs in lo mk sucu coss hs gions nd s how ou sim of djsumn coss liv o h nfis fom d lilizion vy wih lo mk flxiiliy. Finlly, h is on oh osiiv fu of ou modl h w would lik o undsco. As mniond ov, i is sighfowd o show h h quiliium in ou modl is fficin s Andix B. his is unusul fo sch modls. I is usully h cs h sch dcisions if wih xnliis. Fo xml, if n unmloyd wok chooss o sk jo in icul sco, his my mk i mo difficul fo oh unmloyd woks o find jo h is, h my congsion xnliis. uch xnliis yiclly diso hvio nd ld o su-oiml quilii. his is no h cs in ou modl. In fc, w s u ou modl wih cin fus such s xognous unov s scificlly dsignd o viod his olm. 5

17 h son h w did his is so h w cn su h whn w clcul djusmn coss nd com hm o h gins fom d w cn cin h ou suls do no dnd on how d lilizion ffcs h disoions cd y conovsil, hd o msu, imossil o osv sch gnd xnliis. As fo wknsss, h wo h dsv scil nion. h fis hs o do wih ou ssumion h unov s fixd. As d is lilizd h conomic incnivs h gns fc chng. Fims in imo coming scos my s o lyoff woks nd unmloyd woks coming fo h nw jos in h xnding xo sco my find h hy cn now scu mloymn quickly wihou sching oo hd. In ms of ou modl, his mns h d lilizion my incs oh h jo sion in h low-ch sco nd h jo cquisiion in h high-ch sco. By ing h sion nd jo cquisiion s s xognously scifid ms, w ignoing such ossiiliis. W un o his issu in h conclusion nd discuss wys in which ou nlysis cn modifid in h fuu o dl wih i. h oh wknss concns h ms h msu h souc nd im coss of ining c j nd j. Alhough hs ms ly ky ol in ou nlysis, w know vy lil ou hi likly vlus. W hndl his olm in wo wys. Fis, sinc i is unlikly h ining coss in h low-ch sco significn, w s c qul o zo nd ssum h is qui high so h low-ch ining is vy if. Givn h w hv lso ssumd h h no souc coss ssocid wih jo sch no h in 9 h is no cos of sch, his mns h ou sims of ggg ining coss likly o isd downwd. cond, w consid wid viy of ssumions ou h mgniud of high-ch ining coss nd hn y nd dw conslusions h ous coss hs ss of ssumions. 3. Aggg Adjusmn Coss 6

18 h ms of ou modl includ hos h dmin h vg duions of sco-j ining j, sco-j mloymn j nd high-ch sch, hos h dmin h souc cos of sco-j ining c j, hos h hl o dmin ouu wok in sco j q j, φ, which msus h nfiliy of high-ch skills coss jos nd, h discoun. In his scion, w choos vlus fo hs ms, solv h modl nd ovid msus of h ggg djusmn coss ssocid wih d fom. W do so und h ssumion h h low ch-sco is iniilly ocd y 5% iff. o mk cin h w do no discoun h fuu oo hvily, w s.03, h lows discoun considd y Blwin l 980 nd Mg 97. h vg duion of unmloymn in h U.. cn found in h 00 conomic Ro of h Psidn s l B-44. Alhough his vlu hs flucud ov h ys, i mins fily sl ou on qu o 3 wks. Ou modl is consisn wih such sims if w s 4. inc his vlu ly flucus y mo hn wk o wo, his is h only vlu fo h w consid. Fo h vg duion of mloymn in h high-ch sco, w un o h jo cion nd dsucion d of Dvis, liwng nd chuh 996, who o h h vg nnul of jo dsucion in U. mnufcuing duing h iod ws ou 0% his nsls ino n vg jo duion of 0 ys. h is som viion in his num coss ys, wih h lgs of jo dsucion coming in % imlying n vg jo duion of ou 6 ys. 9 W hfo ssum, fo ou s cs, h n vg high-ch jo lss n ys which is h cs if.. owv, w lso solv h modl nd o suls fo h cs in which high-ch jos ls only six ys which is h cs if.67. I is hd o find d on h vg duion of jo in h low-ch sco. W consid hs o nsioy, undsil jos nd lhough mny of hs jos my found in 9 l. on. 9 in Dvis, liwng nd chuh

19 h mnufcuing sco, i is no ossil o look indusy-wid d nd dw conclusions ou how long h wos jos in ch indusy ls. o, w k diffn och. Ou lowch jos qui fw skills nd lil ining. hs h ys of jos h mny hold whil sill in school o whn hy jus sing ou in h lo foc. If w look d on h num of jos hld ov h lifim, w find h u o h g of 4 woks hold oughly on nw jo vy wo ys. 0 W hfo consid wo css on in which low-ch jos ls wo ys so h.5 nd noh in which hy ls jus on y so h. Comining hs wo css wih h ssumions h w hv md ou jo nu in h highch sco lvs us wih fou diffn sings. In h sing wih high unov in oh scos, jo ls only y in h low-ch sco nd jus six ys in h high-ch sco. In h sing wih low unov in oh scos, jos ls wo ys in h low-ch sco nd n ys in h high-ch sco. In h oh wo css, jos ls ih h o n ims s long in h high-ch sco hn hy do in h low-ch sco. his givs us wid ng of ssumions ou lo mk unov. un nx o h ms of h ining ocsss. inc vy lil is known ou h mgniud of ining coss w wn o cful no o ssum vlus h sm unsonly high, nd w wn o mk su h w consid wid ng of ossil vlus. As w mniond ov, w ssum h h no souc coss ssocid wih low-ch ining i.., c 0. In ddiion, w ssum h h low-ch ining ocss ks only on wk so h 5. Fo h high-ch sco, w un o h limid infomion h is vill on ining coss in h lo conomics liu. A viw of wh is known ou unov coss cn found in mmsh 993 wh unov coss ssumd o includ oh h coss of cuiing nd ining h nwly hid wok. his liu suggss h such coss my qui high. Fo xml, lg fim in h hmcuicl indusy simd h h sn 0 l 8. on. 0 in mmsh nd Rs 988. Wih c 0 w hv 0 so h ll woks n h lo mk. 8

20 vlu of h cos of lcing on wok mound o oughly wic h wok s nnul sly. imil, lhough no qui so dmic, sims w oind fo lss-skilld jos. On sudy simd h h cos of lcing uck div mound o slighly lss hn hlf of h wok s nnul y. h lows sim of unov coss od y mmsh s o ou h wks woh of sly. o cu his wid ng of sims, w ssum h high-ch ining lss fou monhs 4 nd hn w vy h vlu of c. A h low nd, w choos c so h ining coss fo h vg wok in h high-ch sco qul o on monhs y. A h high nd, w choos c so h h vg high-ch wok s ining coss qul 5 monhs of y. W lso consid wo inmdi css in which ining coss qul 5 nd 0 monhs of h wok s nnul sly. his givs us wid ng of vlus fo high-ch ining coss. Blow w look fo suls h ous coss his ng of sims. 3 his lvs only q nd q, h oduciviy ms in h wo scos, nd φ, which msus how ofn high-ch woks nd o in f losing hi jos. W hv gud h high-ch jos qui oh gnl nd jo-scific inging wih much of h ining gnl. h imlicion is h ining is no ll h common in h high-ch sco, which mns h φ should fily high. In ls -4 w ovid sims of h wo vils h w insd in, R * nd *, und h ssumion h φ.8. owv, w lso clculd hs vlus ssuming h φ ngd wn.5 nd.9 nd found h h vlus in ls nd 3 w ffcd only h hid dciml lc whil hos in ls nd 4 vid only h igh-ch woks y flow cos of c whil ining nd ining lss, on vg, / iods. hus, ining coss givn y c /. Annul incom fo h vg wok in h high-ch sco is q /. 3 A his oin, i is usful o fis clify wh w mn y ining coss. Whil cquiing h skills ncssy o fom cin sks, h my iods duing which no oducion occus whsov whil woks in school, going hough oinion, ging hnds-on on-h-jo ining, nd so on. owv, h my lso iod duing which h wok is oducing nd y oduciviy is low is ulim lvl cus h wok is sill lning ou h oducion ocss. h ouu los duing h iod of lning-y-doing should lso considd s of ining coss. Wih his inion, i is hd o imgin h ou mos mods ssumions h h no souc cos o ining in h lowch sco, h h low-ch ining ocss ks only on wk, nd h high-ch ining coss moun o only on monh s woh of high-ch wgs could considd xcssiv. 9

21 scond dciml lc. hus, w conclud h ou sims lgly insnsiiv o ou ssumions ou φ, ovidd h his vlu mins ov.5. Fo q nd q wh ms is hi liv vlus. hus, w s q.4 his mks h clculion of c dscid ov livly sy nd hn vy q. As q vis, h liv civnss of h wo scos chngs nd hus,, which dmins h fcion of h wokfoc h ss ou in h low-ch sco, is ld. Fo comlnss, w consid fiv diffn vlus fo q fo ch cominion of unov s. hs h vlus h cosond o qul.,.33,.5,.67 nd.8. his givs us sns s o how ou msus of R * nd * vy wih h siz of h sco h is iniilly ocd sco nd h siz of h sco h is ssocid wih significn ining coss sco. Ou sims of R*, h io of ggg djsumn coss o h nfis fom d fom, nd *, h im which n ouu gs ck o is iniil sdy s lvl, od in ls nd. hs suls w oind y ssuming h h wold ics of h wo goods h sm nd h h low-ch sco is iniilly ocd y 5% iff. wo suls snd ou. Fis, ou sims considly high hn ny oind y Bldwin l 980 o Mg 97. Ou lows sim in l is h djusmn coss wy ou on hid of h gins fom d fom; nd, fom l, h i ks lmos 3 ys fo n ouu o g ck o i -lilizion lvl. A h oh xm, som sims s high s.9 fo R * nd 5.9 ys fo *! Givn h w hv ssumd wy sch coss nd souc coss fo low-ch ining, hs sims suisingly high. cond, h suls wih sc o R * mkdly ous coss ou ssumions ou k-u s going fom high unov in oh scos o low unov in oh scos nv chngs h io y mo hn.0. h k-u s do influnc ou sims of *, u, in ll css h w consid * mins qui high. Finlly, ou sims of R * nd * fily insnsiiv o ou ssumions ou h iniil siz of h low-ch sco. As incss, R * 0

22 nd * oh fll, wih h of dcs incsing in h mgniud of high-ch ining coss. 4 In fc, i is h mgniud of hs ining coss h clly m h mos. No suisingly, s ining coss incs, so do R * nd *. On nul qusion o sk his oin is whh ou suls divn y ou ssumion h ining involvs l souc cos o whh h coss his high simly cus h ining nd sch ocsss k im nd no oducion occus whil sch nd ining k lc. o g som hndl on his issu, w inoduc wo nw ms, R * GO nd * GO. hs ms dfind in xcly h sm mnn s R * nd * wih on xcion hy msu only goss ouu nd igno h souc cos of ining. o, fo xml, * GO msus h moun of im i ks fo goss ouu o g ck o is lilizion lvl. Ou sims of R * GO nd * GO od in ls 3 nd 4. Whil ou sims fll significnly, hy min considly ov hos found in vious sudis. Mos of h sims indic h whn w k ino ccoun only h im cos of ining, ound 5 o 0% of h gins in goss ouu los du o djusmn coss. Moov, i ks ov wo ys fo goss ouu o un o h lvl njoyd in h iniil iff-disod sdy s quiliium. hs sims ous coss ou ssumions concning k-u s nd h iniil siz of h low-ch sco, u do vy significnly s w chng ou ssumions ou h mgniud of high-ch ining coss. 4. Adjusmn Coss nd o Mk Flxiiliy ls -4 indic h chngs in k-u s hv lil influnc ov ou sims of ggg djusmn coss. Y, if w look coss h wold, i is no only k-u s h 4 Incsing h iniil siz of h low-ch sco hs wo ffcs on R *. On h on hnd, if h low-ch sco is lg hn d fom will gn lg nfis. On h oh hnd, wih lg low-ch sco d fom will lso ld o g dl of wok llocion nd his will incs djusmn coss.

23 vy u lso h of jo cquisiion. In h U.. mos unmloyd woks find mloymn livly quickly nd long-m unmloymn is no significn olm. In cons, mny uon conomis fc sious olms wih lg oulion of woks who hv n clssifid s long-m unmloyd. Comining his wih h fc h jo duion is lso long in uo lds o h conclusion h lo mks much mo flxil in U.. hn hy in uo. his diffnc in lo mk flxiiliy hs n mhsizd y lo conomiss nd mcoconomiss sudying viy of issus. 5 In his scion, w invsig h imlicions fo ggg djsumn coss. o do so, w dd nw vil s o ou modl, which w f o s sd. W inoduc his m y mulilying h unov s in h high-ch sco, nd, y s. 6 As s incss, high-ch jos com si o find u hy lso com lss dul. hus, n conomy wih high vlu fo s hs g dl of unov in h high-ch sco whil n conomy wih low vlu fo s hs high-ch sco wih long vg duion of unmloymn nd livly long xcd jo nu. I follows h s msus h flxiiliy of h lo mk wih incss in sd ssocid wih mo flxil lo mks. 7 Figu 5 shows how R * vis wih s fo h cs in which h is low unov in h high-ch sco, high unov in h low-ch sco, high-ch ining coss qul o 5 monhs of h vg high-ch wok s incom nd on-hid of h lo foc ss ou in sco i..,,. nd.33. Quliivly simil figus ly fo ll oh m vlus in ls -4. h suising hing ou Figu 5 is h h lionshi is non-monoonic incss in lo mk flxiiliy do no lwys ld o dcss in liv djusmn coss. In fc, R * incss fis, hn chs mximum nd dcss f h. 5, fo xml, Fmn 994 nd yd, Nickll, nd Jckmn imil suls cn oind y mulilying ll unov s y s so h n incs in s suls in high unov in oh scos. owv, doing so mks h nlyics h follow low much lss nsn. foono 9 fo dils.

24 I follows h conomis h wo nds of h scum hos wih vy flxil lo mks nd hos h slohful hv h mos o gin fom d fom. conomis in h middl hos wih sluggish lo mks s g fcion of hi onil gins n wy y djsumn coss. In Figu 5, R * chs is mximum vlu fo s <, so h if h iniil vlus sniv of h U.., conomis wih lo mks h lss flxil hn h U.., lik hos in mos uon counis, hv livly lss o gin fom d fom. l 5 shows h vlu fo s h mximizs R * nd how his vlu vis wih h iniil vlu fo. 8 In ll css, R * ks fo vlu of s low, suggsing h h Amicns should lss concnd ou djusmn coss hn uons nd/o h Jns. Finlly, lhough h lionshi wn s nd R * is non-monoonic, i is usful o no h i livly fl fo s <. hus, lhough slohful nd flxil lo mks sul in smll R * hn do sluggish lo mks, h diffnc is no ll h g ll h conomis s ou h sm fcion of hi gins fom lilizion dis s h conomy gos hough is cosly nsiion o h nw sdy-s quilium ound 70%. his non-monoonic lionshi dos suggs howv, h i would usful o look how h cul gins fom d n of djusmn coss vy wih s. o do so, dfin NB o h nfi fom d lilizion n of djusmn coss msud s cng of iniil sdy s wlf. h is, 4 00 WA NB W W Figu 5 shows how NB vis wih s fo h cs in which,. nd.33. As wih R *, h lionshi is non-mononic. conomis wih sluggish lo mks gin lss hn hos 7 No h w do no mulily h unov s ssocid wih ining y s. I is ou viw h h lngh of h ining ocss is dmind y h comlxiy of h jo h is linkd o chnology, no h flxiiliy of h lo mk. 8 imil vlus of s mximiz R * fo h oh m vlus considd in ls -4. In fc, s w mov fom on cs o noh in ms of h m vls considd in ls -4, his vlu chngs only h scond dciml lc. 3

25 wih slohful o flxil lo mks. owv, unlik Figu 5, his lionshi is no ll fl fo s < h is lg diffnc in wh conomis snd o gin fom d fom. An conomy wih vy slohful lo mk gins ov cn of wlf s <.6 s do conomis wih vy flxil lo mks s > In cons n conomy wih sluggish lo mk gins lss hn. cn. h non-monooniciy sn in Figu 5 cn cd o mnn in which h goss nfis fom d nd ggg dusmn coss h wo comonns of R * nd NB vy wih sd. h goss nfis fom d fom dnd on wo fus h moun of woks who swich scos s sul of lilizion nd h iliy lvl of hos woks. h mo woks h swich nd h mo l hs woks, h g h incs in goss ouu. Aggg djusmn coss lso dnds on how mny woks mov wih g movmn imlying high djusmn coss u hy lso dnd on sd dicly s lo mk flxiiliy incss, woks mk h nsiion coss scos mo quickly nd djusmn coss fll. Figu 3 cn usd o s how h moun of wok llocion vis wih s. d fom lows h un o ining in h low-ch sco, cusing hv cuv o shif down. h moun of wok llocion h occus hn dnds on h slo of h V cuv wih fl cuv imlying mo llocion. 9 h iliy lvls of h swiching woks dnd on h osiion of h V cuv, which is dmind y. Fom 5, w cn wi V s V β s q η s c wh βs nd ηs msu oughly h fcion of high-ch wok s lif h h o sh xcs o snd mloyd nd ining, scivly. I is sighfowd o show h βs q, h slo of V wih sc o iliy, is incsing in s fo 9 If w incs h sm s nd hn h slo of h V cuv ms s wll. owv, sinc unov lys mo ominn ol in h high-ch sco, i uns ou h chngs in h low-ch 4

26 s φ < nd dcsing in s hf. Inuiivly, if s 0 wok who is cunly ining hs no ho of v finding jo sinc h jo cquisiion is 0 nd hus iliy, which only ffcs ouu whil mloyd, lys no ol in dmining h vlu fom ining. In his cs, h V cuv is hoizonl. Incsing s lds o n incs in h fcion of lif sn mloyd nd mks iliy mo imon. hus, whn s is low n incs in s cuss h V cuv o com s. owv, s s coms lg h lionshi chngs. Consid, fo xml, wh hns whn s ochs infiniy woks now find mloymn vy quickly u h jo ks u lmos insnly so h h wok snds mos of his o h lif ining. hus, fo lg s h V cuv is onc gin vy fl. As s flls, h fcion of lif sn mloyd iss, mking iliy mo imon. his mns h whn s is high, dcss in s mk h V cuv s. I follows h d fom suls in g dl of llocion whn s is ih vy low o vy high. As fo h iliy of h movs, his dnds on η s c β s q. I is sighfowd o show h his vlu is dcsing in s fo s < nd ising hf. h sm φ logic lis whn s is vy low o vy high h io of im sn ining o im sn mloyd is high nd hus V is low imlying high vlu fo. his io is minimizd fo som inmdi vlu of s, nd his is h vlu of s h minimizs. hus, i follows h whn s is vy low o vy high, h is g dl of llocion nd hos who mov hv livly high iliy lvls. Boh of hs focs sul in lg goss nfi fom d fom. As sul, h goss nfis fom d fom U-shd in s. cuv domind y chngs in h high-ch cuv. A if dsiion of his cs cn found in Dvidson nd Musz

27 As fo ggg djusmn coss, h lg moun of llocion h occus whn s is high o low lds o lg djusmn coss. W f o his s h indic ffc of incsd flxiiliy. owv, h is lso dic ffc of incsing s on hs coss s lo mks com mo flxil, woks mk h nsiion coss scos mo quickly nd his ducs djusmn coss. I follows h whn s is vy low, incsing s lds o low djusmn coss hough oh h dic nd indic ffcs. Bu, whn s is vy high, n incs in s lds o low djusmn coss hough h dic ffc u high djusmn coss hough h indic ffc. hus, ggg djusmn coss ih downwd sloing in s, o, hy my U- shd if h indic ffc is song hn h dic ffc. h goss nfis GB, djusmn coss AC nd n nfis NB ssocid wih d fom shown in Pnl A of l 6 fo h sm m vlus h gnd l 5 h quliiv fus of l 6 h sm fo ll m vlus in ls -4. h fc h djusmn coss U-shd indics h fo high vlus of s h indic ffc is domin. No h NB n nfi is h diffnc wn GB nd AC. Fom his l, w s h NB is high whn h is ih g dl of lo mk flxiiliy o vy lil. N nfis minimizd whn lo mks somwh inwn, h is, whn hy sluggish u no sgnn. hs suls cn viwd on of wo wys. On h on hnd, h is good nws fo conomis wih slohful nd flxil lo mks. Fo hos wih flxil lo mks hings go s on would hv xcd ioi hy hv much o gin fom d fom nd nd no woy much ou djusmn coss. Fo hos wih slohful lo mks, hy hv much o gin s wll, vn hough hy likly o fc high coss of djusmn duing h nsiion o h nw sdy-s. owv, h son h hy gin so much is h d nws in such conomis iffs hv lg disoiony ffcs cus hy cus g dl of wok llocion. Rmoving h iff hfo gns goss nfis h lg nough o swm h high coss of djusmn. conomis in h middl do no gin s much fom d 6

28 fom nd sill fc livly high djsumn coss. As sul, conomis wih sluggish lo mks hv h ls o gin fom d lilizion. I dos, howv, k im fo h conomy wih h slohful lo mks o liz hs lg gins nd sinc unov is low i my qui som im fo n ouu uns o is fom lvl. Fo xml, fo h cs od in Pnl A of l 6, whil i ks 3.54 ys fo h s cs conomy s o g n ouu ck o is iniil lvl, i ks lmos n ddiionl ys fo h mos sgnn conomy wih s.5 w find h * 5.3. h imlicion is h lhough h gins fom lilizion my qui lg in such conomis, i my vy difficul o find ny oliicin willing o ush fo such fom. W clos his scion y invsiging jus how ous hs non-mononic lionshis wih sc o on of ou ky ssumions h iliy ffcs ouu u no ining coss. o so so, consid how ou modl would chng if w ssum insd h ll sco j woks oduc h sm ouu nd h high iliy sco j ins incu low ining coss. In icul, ssum h wok wih iliy lvl i fcs sco j ining coss of c j / i, flcing h noion h high iliy woks ick u skills si i.., low sonl cos. hn ll of ou li quions nd nlysis would cy hough, wih ll q j i ms simly lcd y q j nd ll c j ms lcd y c j / i. igh iliy woks would sill cd o h high-ch sco nd low iliy woks would sill sk low-ch jos. In od o invsig h lionshi wn flxiiliy nd h coss nd nfis fom fom, w focus on h sm fus s fo. In icul, w mus look wh hns o h moun of wok llocion nd h iliy of h movs s sd incss. W gin wih wok llocion. In his modl, h V cuv ks h fom V c β s q η s. hus, h slo of i V wih sc o iliy vlud is η s c. I is sighfowd o show h η s > 0 h is, h fcion of wok s lif 7

29 h h o sh cn xc o snd ining is incsing in sd sinc incss in sd shon oh slls of unmloymn nd h im sn mloyd. owv, s w sw ov nd hfo, givn h h follows h h V cuv is fixd, is lg whn s is vy smll o vy lg. I V cuv is vy fl whn lo mks slohful nd h cuv coms s s s iss. o, jus s in ou li modl, h moun of wok llocion is lg whn s is smll nd i is iniilly dcsing in s. owv, s s gs lg h imc on h slo of h V cuv s o miguous ηs is incsing in s u so is. imulions of h modl fo ll of h m vlus in ls -4 vls h iss fs h ηs so h, s in ou li modl, h moun of llocion ss o is gin whn s ss o coms lg. As fo h iliy of h movs, h quliiv lionshi wn nd s is xcly s i ws in ou vious modl. his mns h h mos l woks mov ih whn s is vy low o vy high. Consqunly, whn s is vy low h is g dl of wok llocion nd hos who mov hv high iliy lvls so h hi ining coss low. his mns h, s in ou vious modl, h goss nfis fom fom high whn s is vy low. As s ss o incs, fw woks mov nd hos who do mov of low iliy. hus, fis, h goss nfis dcsing in s. owv, s s iss fuh h moun of llocion ss o incs whil hos who mov gin o hv high iliy lvls. hus, fo high vlus of s h goss nfis incsing in s. Pnl B of l 6 shows yicl cs fo his lniv modl h undlying m vlus h sm s hos usd o gn Pnl A. In his cs, s in ll oh css fo h m vlus h w consid, h lionshi wn goss nfis nd lo mk flxiiliy hs h sm quliiv flvo s i did in ou fis modl i is U-shd. As fo djusmn coss, whn s is low h is g dl of llocion u hos who lloc hv high iliy lvls nd fc low ining coss. In ddiion, h llocion 8

30 occus vy slowly. As sul, djusmn coss high. As s iss, h is lss llocion nd i occus fs, cusing djusmn coss o fll. vnully, howv, h moun of llocion gins o is gin s s incss fuh nd h iliy lvls of h movs s o is s wll. hus, lhough llocion occus quickly whn s is high, djusmn coss s o is. l 6 indics h h quliiv lionshis wn lo mk flxiiliy, h goss nd n nfis fom lilizion nd djusmn coss h sm in oh modls. hus, ou sul h conomis wih sluggish lo mks gin lss fom d fom h do conomis wih slohful o flxil lo mks s o ous o h mnn in which iliy ffcs n ouu. 5. Conclusion h is no disu ou h fc h woks los hi jos du o chngs in d ns nd h ocing n indusy svs jos. Fo xml, ufu nd llio 994 sim h limining ocion in h U.. l indusy would cos ov 50,000 woks hi jos. I is lso wll documnd h dislocd woks suff lg sonl losss wih som sims fo h vg loss nging s high s $80,000 in lifim nings Jcoson, ond nd ullivn 993,. I is hfo no suising h oliicl lds somims hsin ou d fom. hos who los my los g dl nd likly o mm who is ful whn h nx lcion ns. h gins dlyd, hs significnly, nd sd ou ov mny so h, on vg, hos who do gin oly gin much lss hn h fw who los. Nvhlss, h is oly no oh osiion in conomics h hs s much widsd suo s h lif in h nfis fom f d. Acdmic conomiss yiclly sond o ulic concns ou h sonl losss o dislocd woks y xlining h such concns mislcd nd misguidd. his viw ws summizd nd, w fl, 9

31 oily ciicizd y Bldwin, Mui, nd Richdson 980 in hi icl on djusmn coss: conomiss hv somims dismissd such djusmn coss wih h commn h h dislcd fcos com mloyd in h long un. Bu his is d conomics, sinc in discouning sms of coss nd nfis fo wlf clculions, h n-sn couns mo hvily hn h long-un. In his, w hv id o k sious look h ossil mgniud of h djusmn coss h likly o is fom d fom. h novly of ou och is h w hv modld h ining nd sch occsss h woks mus go hough in od o find jos. his llows us o k ino ccoun h im nd souc coss of ining nd jo sch. W hv id o mods in ou ssumions concning hs coss. W hv ssumd wy h souc coss ssocid wih jo sch nd low-ch ining. W hv lso ssumd h h im coss involvd in low-ch ining vy smll on wk. Finlly, w hv lookd wid viy of ssumions concning h cos of ining in h high-ch sco. Ou suls suising. vn wih ou mos mods ssumion concning h cos of high-ch ining h hy qul on monh of h vg high ch wok s nnul nings, w find h djusmn coss significn fcion of h goss nfis fom d fom. Ou lows sim is h oughly 30% of h goss nfis will n wy y djusmn. A h oh xm, w find h whn highch ining is cosly 5 monhs of h vg wok s nnul sly s much s 90% of h goss nfis my dis duing h nsiion iod. vn whn w focus nion on goss ouu so ll h ms h im coss of ining nd jo sch w find h ou sims of djusmn coss ls wic s high s vious sims in h liu Mg 97 nd Bldwin l 980. W lso find h h nision iod my susnil, king nywh fom o 5 ys fo n ouu o g ck o is fom lvl. hfo, i is no suising h oliicins my 30

32 lucn o g o d lilizion y h im hi conomy gins o h nfis hy my hv ldy n vod ou of offic! In h l of h w invsig h lionshi wn lo mk flxiiliy, h gins fom d fom nd ggg djusmn coss. I is wll documnd h unov s vy significnly coss counis Fmn 994. P of h son fo his is h counis vy in gnousiy of h socil sfy ns hy ovid fo h oo nd h jolss. Fiing coss nd gnous unmloymn insunc ogms coniu o long m unmloymn nd low unov houghou uo jungqvis nd gn 998. In ddiion, h wid-sd influnc of unions in uo conss shly wih hi ol in h U, suling in mo igid wgs in uon lo mks. o nd mcoconomiss hv cognizd h his diffnc in lo mk sucu hs imon imlicions fo issus such s jo ining nd mcoconomic fomnc s, fo xml, yd, Nickll, nd ckmn 99. As f s w know, w h fis o invsig h imlicions fo h n gins fom d lilizion. Agin, ou suls could no hv n nicid. W find h iffs c h iggs disoions in conomis wih slohful o highly flxil lo mks. As sul, whn d is lilizd hs conomis hv h mos o gin. his is u insi of h fc h djusmn coss high whn h is vy low unov. I follows h conomis wih sluggish lo mks should h mos lucn o duc d is hy hv h ls o gin. Finlly, ll of ou simulions suggs h h unov s in U.. lo mks high nough o chciz i s highly flxil conomy. his suggss h h U.. oly hs mo o gin fom d fom hn h uon llis. 3

33 Andix A In his Andix w show how o solv h diffnil quions in -5 nd oin closd fom soluion fo h nsiion h o h nw sdy-s quiliium. W gin y noing h woks wih iliy lvls in h invls, N nd, do no chng hi hvio f lilizion. hos in h fom invl min chd o sco whil hos in h l invl min chd o sco. I follows h h msu of woks in hs invls h ining, sching, o mloyd givn y 6-0 wih h m m in 6 nd 7 lcd y N. h mining woks, hos wih iliy lvls in h invl N,, wn o swich fom sco o sco, u will only do so whil ining. W f o hs woks s h swichs. o figu ou how mny swichs in ch lo mk s im, w gin y inoducing som nw noion. W dfin s h msu of woks who swich fom sco o sco following lilizion nd ining im. imilly dfin s h msu of woks who swich fom sco o sco nd sching im. Finlly, w us j o dno h msu of swichs who mloyd in sco j im. h sysm of diffnil quions fo hs woks cn win s in A. - A.4: A. & A. &. 3 & φ A. 4 A N wh, fo noionl convninc, w hv sussd h im gumn. quion A.4 is siml diffnil quion, which hs h following soluion A.5 N. 3

34 33 In solving A., w mk us of h iniil condiion h N 0. o solv A. - A.4, susiu A.5 ino A.4, solv fo in ms of nd nd hn susiu h sul ino A.3. his lvs us wih A. nd A.3 which fom sysm of wo diffnil quions h cn win in mix fom: h A 0.6 φ & & wh N h. h mhod fo solving sysm of his fom cn found in Boyc nd DiPim 977, Using h iniil condiions h 0 0 0, h soluions N N N N A.7 N N N N A.8 wh nd, h ignvlus of h cofficin mix in A.6, givn y:

35 A.9. 4 φ A.9. 4 φ. h msu of woks ining in sco im is hn givn y 6 wih lcd y N. h ol msu of woks mloyd in sco im is hn givn y h sum of nd 7 wih h m lcd y N. h ol msu of woks ining in sco is givn y h sum of 8 nd nd h ol msu of woks sching in h high-ch sco is h sum of 9 nd. Finlly, h ol msu of woks mloyd in sco im is givn y h sum of 0 nd. hs vlus usd in o solv fo ouu n of ining coss long h djusmn h. 34

36 Andix B In his ndix w show h h lissz-fi quiliium in ou modl is fficin. o do so, w clcul h dynmic mginl oduc of lo in ch sco nd show h hs vlus qul in h mk quiliium. h dynmic mginl oduc of sco j lo msus h incs in n ouu h occus if h sdy s is disud y dding n ddiionl wok o h sco king ino ccoun h djusmn h o h nw sdy s. o clcul h dynmic mginl oducs w follow h mhod dvlod in Dimond 980. W gin y dfining i s h sn discound vlu of ouu n of ining coss oducd in sco i whn smll msu of nw woks is ddd o h sco. hs woks ssumd o hv iliy lvl. quiliium is fficin if. wih sco. W hv 0 { q I c [ I ]} 0 d wh & nd I is n indico funcion h ks on h vlu of whn h wok is mloyd nd quls zo ll oh ims. o find w s y using h fundmnl quion of dynmic ogmming which ss h usiuing fo [ I ] & q I c & fom ov llows us o wi his s [ I ] { } B. q I c 0 h quion of moion fo mloymn in sco, w hv & is oind in h following mnn. inc sch is no quid o find &. Now, w know h h ol msu of ins 35

37 36 Diffniing wih sc o yilds { } I c I q u, 0, I, 0 0 so h w hv c B '. o coml ou divion, w mus now clcul. o do so, w solv B. fo. W oin [ ] I c I q In h iniil sdy s, h igh-hnd sid of his quion quls 0/0. Alying oil s Rul, w hv no h w diffniing wih sc o, which is h sm s I c q o c q W cn now susiu his vlu ino B. o oin h dynmic mginl oduc of lo in sco :.3 c q B No h his dynmic mginl oduc quls V. ou of h in sco is qul o h diffnc wn nd h msu of mloyd

38 37 W now un nx o sco. W hv [ ] { } 0 d I c I q wh &, φ &, I is n indico funcion h quls on whn h wok is mloyd nd zo ohwis nd is n indico funcion which quls on whn h wok is sching nd zo ohwis. As ov, w s y lying h fundmnl quion of dynmic ogmming which imlis h [ ] I c I q & & If w now us h quions of moion o susiu fo & nd & nd hn diffni wih sc o w oin [ ] I c I q Bu, in h iniil sdy s 0, w know h I ; so h c B.4 h finl s quis us o solv fo nd hn susiu h vlu ino B.4. Agin following Dimond 980, w diffni h fundmnl quion of dynmic ogmming wih sc o nd. W oin [ ] c c q φ woks in h sco. usiuing fo yilds h dsid sul.

39 38 olving his sysm of quions fo yilds } {.5 c q B φ usiuing B.5 ino B.4 nd collcing ms suls in [ ] { }.6 c q B φ φ No h B.6 is lso qul o V. hus, sinc h dynmic mginl oducs oh qul h xcd lifim incom fo wok ining in h sco, nd, sinc woks llocd so h h xcd lifim incom fom ining is h sm in oh scos, h dynmic mginl oducs qul in quiliium. As sul, quiliium is fficin.

40 Rfncs Bldwin, Ro; John Mui; nd Dvid Richdson 980. Wlf ffcs on h Unid s of significn mulill iff ducion. Jounl of Innionl conomics 0: Boyc, Willim nd Richd DiPim 977. lmny Diffnil quions nd Boundy Vlu Polms, John Wily nd ons. Dvidson, Cl; nd vn Musz 000. Glolizion nd lou-mk djusmn: ow fs nd wh cos? Oxfod Rviw of conomic Policy 63: Dvidson, Cl; nd vn Musz 00. Glolizion, mloymn nd incom: Anlyzing h djusmn ocss. in Pocdings of h IA Confnc on Glolizion nd ou Mks Dvid Gnwy, d.. McMilln Pss. Dvis, vn; John liwng; nd co chuh 996. Jo Cion nd Dsucion. MI Pss. d Mlo, Jim; nd Dvid 990. Wlf coss of U.. quos in xils, sl nd uos. Rviw of conomics nd isics 7: Dimond, P 980. An lniv o sdy s comisons. conomics s, 7-9. Flvy, Rod; nd Ch Dong Kim 99. iming nd squncing issus in d lilizion. conomic Jounl 043: Fmn, Richd 994. ow lo fs in dvncd conomis. In: Woking Und Diffn Ruls R. Fmn d.. Russll g Foundion, Nw Yok. Fuusw, iji; nd dwin i 999. Adjusmn coss nd gdul d lilizion. Jounl of Innionl conomics 49: mmsh, Dnil 993. o Dmnd, Pincon Univsiy Pss, Pincon, NJ. mmsh, Dnil nd Al Rs 988. h conomics of Wok nd Py 4 h d., nd Row. 39

41 ufu, Gy nd Kimly llio 994. Msuing h Coss of Pocion in h Unid s, Insiu fo Innionl conomics, Wshingon, DC. Jcoson, ouis; Ro ond nd Dnil ullivn 993. h Cos of Wok Dislocion, W.. Ujohn Insiu fo mloymn Rsch. Jcoson, ouis; Ro ond nd Dnil ullivn 993. nings losss of dislcd woks. Amicn conomic Rviw, 83: K, y; nd hiy Pul 994. Phsing in nd hsing ou ocionism wih cosly djusmn of lou. conomic Jounl 04: yd, Richd; vn Nickll nd Richd Jckmn 99. Unmloymn: Mcoconomic Pfomnc nd h o Mk. Oxfod Univsiy Pss, Oxfod. i, Jun; nd Wolfgng My 996. Ag s dminn of lo s d olicy inss. Pcific conomic Rviw : jungqvis, s nd homs gn 998. h uon unmloymn dilmm. Jounl of Poliicl conomy, 063: Mg, hn 97. h wlf ffcs of sicions on U.. d. Bookings Ps on conomic Aciviy 3: Ny, P 98. Inscol cil moiliy, wg sickinss, nd h cs fo djusmn ssisnc. In Imo Comiion nd Rsons J. Bhgwi d., Univsiy of Chicgo Pss, Chicgo, I. Wins, Aln nd Wndy cks 99. ou djusmn coss nd Biish foow ocion. Oxfod conomic Ps, 43:

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