Knocking. at the College Door WICHE. Projections of High School Graduates by Sex and for Major Metropolitan Areas. October 2013

Transcription

1 Knocking at the College Door Projections of High School Graduates by Sex and for Major Metropolitan Areas October 2013 WICHE Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education WICHE

2 Knocking at the College Door This document presents WICHE s projections of high school graduates for the nation, regions, and states disaggregated by sex and race/ethnicity, and disaggregated by race/ethnicity for the 25 most populous metropolitan areas of the United States. This supplement to the eighth edition of Knocking at the College Door ( was prepared by Peace Bransberger, senior research analyst ( or pbransberger@wiche.edu), and Brian T. Prescott, director of policy research, Policy Analysis and Research ( or bprescott@wiche.edu). Contents: Summary...Page 3 Appendix A. Projections by Sex...Page A-1 Appendix B. Projections for Major Metropolitan Areas... Page B-1 Appendix C. Technical Information... Page C-1 Copyright October 2013 by the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education 3035 Center Green Drive, Suite 200 Boulder, Colorado Telephone (303) An Affirmative Action/Equal Opportunity Employer Publication Number: 2A346J

3 Knocking at the College Door Summary This brief summarizes a new extension to WICHE s projections of high school graduates for the nation, regions, and states, now disaggregated by sex and race/ ethnicity and by race/ethnicity for the 25 most populous metropolitan areas of the United States. These new series of projections build off of WICHE s eighth edition of Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates covering high school graduates for the nation, regions, and states for the classes of 1997 through These new data offer further detail about demographic trends facing policymakers and members of the higher education community, who can use them to compel change and target resources more effectively in order to broaden educational opportunity and improve educational attainment levels. The full range of previously published and new high school graduate projections discussed here are available from the Knocking website ( Methodology These projections represent WICHE s first attempt to use data collected below the state level to make projections. The full range of enrollment and graduates data that are needed for Knocking s cohort survival ratio projection method have not previously been publicly available by sex and at the school district or county level. So, for this edition we obtained a license for the Common Core of Data restricted-use data files containing the seventh to 12 th grade public enrollments and high school graduates by sex and race/ethnicity for local education areas (generally, local educational agencies are school districts). 2 We used these data to calculate the average proportions of all public high school graduates who were male or female between and and applied those proportions to projections of public high school graduates released in our 8th edition of Knocking over the projected years, to Similarly, for the metropolitan area estimates, we determined what percent each count in the covered metropolitan areas represented of the states public high school graduates, and applied those percentages to our projections of public high school graduates by state. 3 One important note about the metropolitan area projections is that we used a fixed definition for which school districts, by county, are included in the metropolitan area. Therefore, this method does not represent in the projections any past or future changes in school district boundaries or changes to the roster of school districts included in the metropolitan area, that might differ from , the point at which we set the metropolitan area definition. Male and Female High School Graduates Males generally outnumber females under the age of 19 but not among high school graduates. The sex ratio at birth in the United States has been around 105 males for every 100 females over time, and while the ratio of males to females generally declines as they age (due to greater mortality among males), historically there are slightly more males of school age than females. This is even truer in recent years (Figure 1). 4 Figure 1. Population Age 19 and Under by Sex: 2000 and 2010 Millions Male Female Male Female 2000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau Under 5 years 5 to 9 years 10 to 14 years 15 to 19 years Despite their greater numbers, numerous studies, including those of the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES), have documented educational attainment gaps by sex and race/ethnicity that have persisted for the last several decades, with females enrolling in and attaining postsecondary credentials at higher rates than their male counterparts. This pattern holds across all races/ethnicities, including non- s. 5 We disaggregated our 8th edition state public high school graduate projections by race/ethnicity into projections by race/ethnicity for females and males. 6 Our analysis confirms that males are 51 percent or more of the national public school enrollment in grades 9 through 12, but on average they are graduating in lower numbers than females. Males composed slightly less than 49 percent of public high school graduates between and This disparity is further evidenced among different races/ethnicities, as shown in Figure 2. Proportionally fewer males than females are graduating across all races/ethnicities, with especially notable disparities for and males. 7 These same patterns are seen by region, a circumstance that is particularly problematic for the high-growth South and West, which have the greatest numbers of and male students. Recent Census estimates indicate that minority births exceeded s for October

4 Knocking at the College Door Figure 2. Males as Percent of U.S. High School Students and Graduates, Average to , by Race/Ethnicity Percent Note: The lighter shade indicates the average percentage of males among all students in grades nine to 12; the darker shade indicates the average percentage of males among public high school graduates, nationally from to the first time ever in 2011, and s in the underfive group are expected to fall below 50 percent within the year. 8 If males, and particularly minority males, don t begin graduating from high school and attaining higher education at greater rates, half of the working age population will fall further and further behind the education and skill levels increasingly needed for workforce and income success. 9 Nationally prominent organizations have been shining a light on this fact, that some of the fastest-growing portions of the population are those minority groups who in recent decades have the lowest rates of postsecondary enrollment and attainment, males in particular. On top of their lower likelihood of graduating from high school, only about one-third of and males between 15 and 24 years of age enroll in postsecondary education, and less than 40 percent of beginning postsecondary male and students who do enroll go on to attain a credential within six years. 10 Add to this that and 18 to 24 year old males are disproportionately likely to be incarcerated relative to their representation in the general population. These dire facts combine to make it likely that the U.S. will see a decline in the educational attainment of the country as a whole, because of educational underachievement among males. These projections data may help support the planning to address their specific needs. High School Graduates for the Top 25 Most Populous Metropolitan Areas Educational data at the metropolitan area level in this case, the number and proportions of public high school graduates by race/ethnicity is important for a number of audiences. It can be useful for local elementary and secondary school districts and colleges and universities for planning capacity and to address educational underachievement by minority groups. These data can perhaps be most immediately useful for colleges that predominately serve a local market, especially community colleges, which tend to enroll a disproportionately large and growing share of metropolitan area racial and ethnic minority students. These students are an increasing portion of the high school graduating classes, as the projections here indicate. Atlanta Top 25 Metropolitan Areas Baltimore Boston Chicago Dallas-Fort Worth Denver Detroit Houston Los Angeles Miami-Ft. Lauderdale Minneapolis-St. Paul New York City Phoenix Pittsburgh Portland Riverside Sacramento San Antonio San Diego San Francisco Seattle St. Louis Tampa Washington D.C. Education data at the Philadelphia metropolitan level can also be useful for policymakers tackling concentrated poverty or planning economic and workforce development and resource distribution, as well as for the range of organizations working towards increasing the rate of educational attainment. 11 Finally, they may prove especially helpful for the many community-based organizations that are focused on underrepresented populations in a local area. These data can be used by state, city, and community leaders to demonstrate the rapidly increasing diversity of high school graduates and the projected flood of more diverse and often less-advantaged youth coming up through the pipeline students who may never graduate. The data can be used by these leaders to get out in front of the issue, providing the needed assistance to these students (and their families and communities) to help them stay in school and finish their education. We disaggregated the state public high school graduate projections for the 25 most populous metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs). 12 These 25 metropolitan areas accounted for about 127 million of the United States population (41 percent), a similar percent of youth 18 years or younger, and ultimately 1.25 million of its public high school graduates (41 percent) in They accounted for 65 percent of the nation s Pacific Islander public high school graduates, 59 percent of, 48 percent of, 41 percent of, and 33 percent of public high school graduates in 2009 (Figure 3). Eight of these 25 most populous metropolitan areas for which we produced projections span multiple states (the Boston, Chicago, Minneapolis, New York City, Philadelphia, Portland, St. Louis, and Washington D.C. metro areas). Metropolitan areas that span borders are of 4 October 2013

5 Knocking at the College Door Figure 3. Public High School Graduates ( ), for the Nation and 25 Most Populous MSAs Millions , , ,310 Key: Nation in light shade; sum of MSAs in dark shade. 452, , , ,770 1,888, ,090 particular interest because of the challenges they present for coordinating efforts across jurisdictions and their critical role in reaching educational attainment goals. 14 These 25 metropolitan areas touch 23 states and the District of Columbia. And for 12 of these 23 states, the high school graduates from the included metropolitan areas make up 50 percent or more of their total public graduates (Figure 4). 15 Concentration in urban areas is even more evident for high school graduates of certain racial/ethnic origins. The majority of the public high school graduates in 18 of the covered 23 states are produced from these urban areas. The majority of graduates come from these urban areas in 17 of the covered 23 states. The majority of graduates in 13 of the 23 states come from these urban areas. Figure 4. Public High School Graduates from 25 Most Populous MSAs ( ), Share of State Public High School Graduates Key: MSAs Public High School Graduates as Percent of State s 1-50% 50%+. Our projections for the selected metropolitan areas reflect the nationwide diversification of youth and high school graduates (Figure 5). declines among and public high school graduates in the years between and are slightly more pronounced for these 25 metropolitan areas than for the nation. public high school graduates from these 25 metropolitan areas are projected to decline 17 percent, compared to 12 percent for the nation. public high school graduates from these metropolitan areas are projected to decline 13 percent, compared to a 9 percent decline for the nation. Figure 5. Cumulative Percent Change in Public High School Graduates, to , 25 Most Populous MSAs and Nation Percent % -2% 30% 23% Key: Nation in light shade; MSAs Total in dark shade. -9% -13% -12% -17% On the other hand, the projected rates of increase for and graduates from these metropolitan areas are slightly lower than what is projected for the nation. The number of public high school graduates is projected to increase 41 percent for the nation by , but slightly less for these 25 metropolitan areas, at 34 percent. The number of public high school graduates is projected to increase 30 percent nationally by compared to 23 percent for these metropolitan areas. Some of this difference may relate to the greater concentration of these racial/ethnic groups in certain metropolitan areas or to the specific metropolitan areas considered here, versus those which are not included. While we do not analyze or make claims about graduation rates with these projections (our method reflects the year-over-year progression of total grade enrollments through graduation, not a cohort of students 41% 34% October

6 Knocking at the College Door through all years), it is very likely that some of the observed trend differences between the nation and these selected metropolitan areas may reflect differences in whether students in the most urbanized areas make it to graduation, compared to the nation as a whole. Even though these selected metropolitan areas follow the national trends simply because they compose 41 percent of the national high school graduates, the rates of change vary among them. For example: 20 of these 25 metropolitan areas are projected to have greater rates of decline in the number of public high school graduates from to than the nation. The Atlanta, Phoenix, St. Louis, and Washington, D.C., metropolitan areas show declines that are less steep, and the Denver metropolitan area even projects growth. 13 of these 25 metropolitan areas are projected to experience higher rates of increase in the number of high school graduates from to than the 41 percent increase projected for the nation. On the other hand, the projections indicate notably slower rates of growth in the number of public high school graduates for the five metropolitan areas that are in California and the two metropolitan areas that are in Florida, than for the nation as a whole. Of course, many other metropolitan areas are experiencing significant change. The combined population of the 25 metropolitan areas we consider here is about 127 million, or 41 percent of the entire U.S. population a good but not necessarily perfect reflection of the U.S. as a whole. In fact, adding the 25 next most populous metropolitan areas areas would expand coverage to 54 percent of the U.S. population. However, we limited this first attempt at providing metro-level projections to the highest-population metropolitan areas, in order to avoid methodological issues with very small counts of students and because of complications involved with available school district data. Readers should not assume that we are suggesting that what is not covered by the 25 highest-population metropolitan areas is rural. Nor do we mean to infer greater importance to the needs of urban schools or to exacerbate the rural-urban divide (i.e. the challenge of balancing resources between states rural and urban schools). Rural residents face serious barriers to access and success. Research suggests that the gaps between urban and rural graduation rates may be narrowing and that rural students may experience many of the same challenges to graduation as do urban students. 16 Therefore, the racial/ethnic graduation gaps indicated by these metropolitan area projections could also be useful for policymakers whose states include substantial rural populations, since many rural students face the same barriers of poverty and lack of economic opportunity as urban students do and many minority students face similar challenges regardless of location. In summary, we produced these estimates of future high school graduates for the 25 most populous metropolitan areas as a planning tool for institutional, community, philanthropic, business leaders, and others, who can use them as evidence of the number and characteristics of high school graduates in the coming 10 to 15 years. The projections mirror the national trend of a rising tide of minority, non- high school graduates, alerting decision makers that the coming generations of students may have vastly different needs than the current one. However, these data will not provide evidence on all of the issues that research shows exist for urban school districts. For example, we defined the metropolitan areas in terms that make sense to city and regional planners and businesses by including suburban areas with their core urban area. Therefore, the graduation disparities that research shows exist between the most racially segregated, high-poverty urban schools and schools in neighboring suburbs are masked when the trends are displayed for the wider metropolitan area for example, the difference between the city of Baltimore s four-year graduation rate of 66 percent, compared to Baltimore County s at 84 percent. 17 Conclusion Policymakers and institutional leaders can utilize these projections for planning purposes and to consider how to ensure that all students may have a reasonable shot at educational opportunity. That is critical, given that education increasingly determines how well individuals are able to contribute productively to a healthy society. Many current efforts are focused on the relative dearth of men in college or on delivering interventions to local communities, often within an urban corridor. Such local initiatives face idiosyncratic issues such as when a community spans state borders and efforts to increase educational attainment may face jurisdictional, financing, or other barriers or that inhibit individuals from making decisions that best serve their education pursuits. Therefore, demographic projections are as important to a broad variety of organizations and policymakers focused on narrower groups of individuals or geographic areas, as they are to state policymakers, and these projections represent WICHE s initial attempt to add nuance and wider utility to our data. 6 October 2013

7 Knocking at the College Door Endnotes 1 Brian Prescott and Peace Bransberger, Knocking at the College Door (Boulder, CO: Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education: 2012), accessed 13 September 2013 from < 8th>. 2 National Center for Education Statistics Common Core of Data (CCD) Restricted-Use Local Education Agency Dropout and Completion Data Files: School Years to Data obtained through special license; more information at < 3 Data were not readily available to disaggregate the projections of nonpublic high school graduates for either sex or by metropolitan area. 4 Lindsay M. Howden and Julie A. Meyer, Age and Sex Composition: 2010 (Washington D.C.: U.S. Census Bureau, May 2011), accessed 30 July 2013 at < 5 T. Ross, G. Kena, A. Rathbun, A. KewalRamani, J. Zhang, P. Kristapovich, and E. Manning, Higher Education: Gaps in Access and Persistence Study, NCES (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics. Government Printing Office, 2012). 6 In the projections tables in Appendix A we have not presented a disaggregation of the Public Total column from our 8th edition projections, because the data were not available to do so. 7 We are making no claims about graduation rates here. Rather, we observe that the number of male graduates compared to the number of males enrolled in high school results in a lower ratio than that for females. 8 U.S. Census Bureau, Most Children Younger Than Age 1 are Minorities, Census Bureau Reports (Washington D.C.: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012), accessed 28 August 2013 from < newsroom/releases/archives/population/cb12-90.html>. And Hope Yen, Minorities In America: s Losing Majority In Under-5 Age Group (Huffington Post, 2013), accessed 28 August 2013 from < 9 Anthony P. Carnevale, Tamara Jayasundera, and Ban Cheah, The College Advantage: Weathering the Economic Storm (Washington D.C.: Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce, 2012), accessed 23 August 2018 from <www9.georgetown.edu/grad/gppi/ hpi/cew/pdfs/collegeadvantage.fullreport pdf>. 10 John Michael Lee Jr. and Tafaya Ransom, The Educational Experience of Young Men of Color (New York, NY: College Board, 2011), accessed September 23, 2013 from sites/default/files/downloads/eeymc-researchreport.pdf. And, ibid, NCES, 2012, Table The Century Foundation, Bridging the Higher Education Divide: Strengthening Community Colleges and Restoring the American Dream (New York: The Century Foundation Press, 2013), accessed 13 September 2013 from Bridging_the_Higher_Education_Divide-REPORT-ONLY.pdf. Spotlight on Poverty and Opportunity, Where You Live Matters: Addressing Concentrated Poverty Neighborhoods, national audio conference with Patrick Sharkey, June 25, 2013, Transcript accessed 13 September 2013 from < documents/where%20you%20live%20matters.pdf>. Brookings Institute Metropolitan Policy Program, State of Metropolitan America (Washington. D.C.: Brookings Institute, 2010). Lumina Foundation, A Stronger Nation through Higher Education, (Indianapolis: Lumina Foundation, 2013) accessed 13 September 2013 from <www. luminafoundation.org/stronger_nation>. 12 We constructed metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) using the counties identified by the U.S. Census as included in the MSA, as defined by the U.S. Office of Management and Budget as of November 2009 and aggregated using the Census CBSA code. We identified the 25 most populous metropolitan statistical areas using the U.S. Census Bureau s Census 2000 and 2010 Census, Table 20. Large Metropolitan Statistical Areas Population, accessed 23 August 2013 at < School district data were associated with the MSA by county. 13 U.S. Census Bureau, Annual Estimates of the Resident Population for the United States, Regions, States, and Puerto Rico: April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2009, NST-EST (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Census Bureau), Accessed 30 July 2013 from < WICHE calculations. 14 Brian A. Sponsler, Gregory S. Kienzl, and Alexis J. Wesaw, Easy Come, EZ-GO: A Federal Role in Removing Jurisdictional Impediments to College Education, (Washington, D.C.: Center for American Progress, 2010), accessed 13 February 2013 from < wp-content/uploads/issues/2010/10/pdf/easy_come_ez_go.pdf>. 15 By definition, 100 percent of the public graduates in the District of Columbia are in the metropolitan area because the district is a single county. 16 J. L. Jordan, G. Kostandini, and E. Mykerezi, Rural and Urban High School Dropout Rates: Are They Different? Journal of Research in Rural Education, 27(12), 1-21, accessed 27 August 2013 from < psu.edu/articles/27-12.pdf>. 17 Christopher B. Swanson, Cities in Crisis 2009: Closing the Graduation Gap (Bethesda, Maryland: Editorial Projects in Education Research Center, 2009), accessed 23 August 2013 from < americaspromise.org/our-work/dropout-prevention/cities-in-crisis. aspx>. October

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9 Appendix A: Projections by Sex UNITED STATES ,329,570 1,389,400 13,200 14,190 67,130 68, , , , , , , ,351,580 1,406,190 13,780 14,470 69,020 69, , , , , , , ,368,210 1,427,600 14,740 15,520 71,450 71, , , , , , , ,371,710 1,433,820 14,110 15,110 75,040 74, , , , , , , ,400,460 1,464,560 14,620 15,880 76,670 75, , , , , , , ,453,580 1,519,020 15,310 16,770 80,110 79, , , , , , , ,475,930 1,532,700 15,420 16,720 80,690 79, , , , , , , ,490,070 1,560,430 16,260 17,530 84,420 83, , , , , , , ,508,380 1,581,190 15,610 16,830 86,680 86, , , , , , , ,471,680 1,542,980 15,590 16,800 86,920 86, , , , , , , ,452,600 1,522,470 15,030 16,200 89,390 88, , , , , , , ,401,470 1,467,490 14,470 15,600 89,620 88, , , , , , , ,423,880 1,492,170 14,770 15,930 93,990 93, , , , , , , ,432,490 1,501,790 15,250 16,440 93,570 92, , , , , , , ,448,470 1,518,900 15,500 16,710 96,730 96, , , , , , , ,471,060 1,543,090 15,550 16, , , , , , , , , ,472,190 1,544,660 15,760 16, , , , , , , , , ,462,940 1,535,150 15,880 17, , , , , , , , , ,478,200 1,550,640 15,930 17, , , , , , , , , ,482,630 1,555,430 16,110 17, , , , , , , , , ,488,130 1,563,490 17,270 18, , , , , , , , , ,534,910 1,614,310 18,040 19, , , , , , , , , ,554,960 1,635,740 18,360 19, , , , , , , , , ,528,300 1,608,020 18,220 19, , , , , , , , , ,485,660 1,562,840 17,800 19, , , , , , , , , ,440,450 1,514,520 17,080 18, , , , , , , , ,390 Notes: The "Race/Ethnicity Total" column equals the sum of the five racial/ethnic group columns. Data reported as "Hawaiian/" were added to "" and guidance about reporting data based on restricted-use data. October 2013 A-1

10 Knocking at the College Door WEST Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oregon, South Dakota, Utah, Washington, Wyoming , ,550 6,330 7,020 34,050 34,670 15,920 18,620 74,010 83, , , , ,270 6,510 7,090 34,480 34,860 16,630 19,000 77,280 87, , , , ,020 7,170 7,800 35,720 35,900 17,550 20,220 83,700 94, , , , ,660 6,690 7,330 36,660 36,910 16,840 19,590 81,040 91, , , , ,880 6,800 7,750 37,060 36,870 17,100 19,840 82,850 93, , , , ,950 7,190 8,320 38,770 38,870 18,040 20,500 93, , , , , ,550 7,120 7,960 38,120 37,750 18,680 21,080 99, , , , , ,890 7,430 8,320 40,970 41,000 19,480 22, , , , , , ,140 6,920 7,740 41,820 41,850 19,630 22, , , , , , ,860 6,780 7,590 40,880 40,910 18,230 20, , , , , , ,170 6,240 6,980 41,110 41,140 16,930 19, , , , , , ,890 5,930 6,630 40,300 40,330 15,560 17, , , , , , ,380 6,030 6,750 42,480 42,510 16,630 19, , , , , , ,790 6,140 6,870 41,010 41,040 16,220 18, , , , , , ,870 6,240 6,990 42,980 43,010 16,310 18, , , , , , ,370 6,080 6,800 44,600 44,630 15,970 18, , , , , , ,300 6,080 6,810 44,240 44,270 15,580 17, , , , , , ,210 6,070 6,790 45,330 45,360 15,480 17, , , , , , ,920 6,090 6,820 47,520 47,550 15,250 17, , , , , , ,060 6,260 7,000 48,510 48,540 15,180 17, , , , , , ,010 6,830 7,640 49,390 49,430 16,210 18, , , , , , ,150 7,140 7,990 51,690 51,720 17,470 20, , , , , , ,020 7,200 8,050 54,160 54,190 17,700 20, , , , , , ,100 7,170 8,020 53,560 53,600 17,900 20, , , , , , ,720 6,980 7,810 52,340 52,370 17,550 20, , , , , , ,830 6,620 7,410 50,970 51,010 17,310 19, , , , ,740 Notes: The "Race/Ethnicity Total" column equals the sum of the five racial/ethnic group columns. Data reported as "Hawaiian/" were added to "" and A-2 October 2013

11 Appendix A: Projections by Sex MIDWEST Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Ohio, Wisconsin , ,130 1,720 1,810 8,190 8,490 28,250 34,390 12,330 13, , , , ,000 1,790 1,920 8,600 8,850 30,020 36,290 13,350 14, , , , ,480 1,920 1,950 8,720 9,010 31,320 38,280 14,190 15, , , , ,250 1,850 1,960 9,590 9,440 33,220 40,260 15,270 16, , , , ,310 2,000 2,190 9,520 9,550 36,310 43,360 16,140 17, , , , ,930 2,050 2,200 9,960 9,940 37,850 45,770 18,280 19, , , , ,030 2,000 2,220 10,040 9,760 39,630 46,870 19,400 20, , , , ,020 2,120 2,270 9,940 9,920 40,470 48,720 20,790 22, , , , ,640 2,060 2,210 10,290 10,270 41,010 49,380 23,190 25, , , , ,240 2,020 2,160 10,470 10,450 40,270 48,480 24,350 26, , , , ,550 1,990 2,130 10,820 10,800 38,310 46,130 25,250 27, , , , ,900 1,900 2,040 10,910 10,890 34,230 41,210 24,300 26, , , , ,360 1,860 1,990 11,260 11,230 35,000 42,140 26,150 28, , , , ,080 1,910 2,050 11,480 11,450 35,130 42,300 27,390 29, , , , ,100 1,880 2,010 11,590 11,570 34,750 41,840 28,240 30, , , , ,730 1,900 2,040 12,690 12,660 35,130 42,300 29,850 32, , , , ,630 1,910 2,050 12,920 12,900 34,510 41,550 31,110 33, , , , ,890 1,860 1,990 13,170 13,150 33,510 40,350 31,760 34, , , , ,540 1,880 2,020 13,810 13,780 32,900 39,610 32,870 35, , , , ,020 1,880 2,010 14,240 14,210 33,270 40,050 33,980 36, , , , ,740 2,020 2,160 14,760 14,730 33,650 40,510 34,230 37, , , , ,560 2,110 2,260 15,300 15,280 35,190 42,370 35,610 38, , , , ,590 2,100 2,250 15,970 15,940 35,520 42,760 35,650 38, , , , ,520 2,050 2,190 16,120 16,090 35,400 42,620 35,180 38, , , , ,040 2,030 2,170 15,900 15,870 34,580 41,630 33,580 36, , , , ,510 1,940 2,080 15,690 15,660 33,630 40,500 31,590 34, , ,070 Notes: The "Race/Ethnicity Total" column equals the sum of the five racial/ethnic group columns. Data reported as "Hawaiian/" were added to "" and October 2013 A-3

12 Knocking at the College Door NORTHEAST Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont , , ,060 12,270 26,140 30,600 19,090 21, , , , , ,570 12,500 27,670 32,400 20,820 22, , , , , ,160 13,180 28,960 34,080 22,340 25, , , , , ,970 13,820 29,930 35,210 23,660 26, , , , , ,510 14,150 31,160 36,620 25,710 28, , , , , ,200 14,740 32,960 38,240 28,620 31, , , , , ,550 15,070 34,210 38,870 30,480 33, , , , , ,000 15,700 34,790 40,520 31,060 34, , , , , ,780 16,460 35,780 41,680 33,730 37, , , , , ,270 16,940 34,990 40,760 34,190 37, , , , , ,170 17,820 33,000 38,450 33,840 37, , , , , ,160 17,820 31,020 36,130 32,790 36, , , , , ,950 18,590 31,500 36,700 33,980 37, , , , , ,320 18,950 31,340 36,500 35,130 39, , , , , ,640 19,270 31,440 36,620 35,960 39, , , , , ,610 21,200 30,980 36,080 36,760 40, , , , , ,620 21,210 30,700 35,760 37,800 41, , , , , ,550 22,120 29,950 34,890 38,430 42, , , , , ,940 23,480 29,660 34,550 39,290 43, , , , , ,850 24,380 28,850 33,600 40,420 44, , , , , ,270 23,810 27,820 32,400 40,020 44, , , , , ,200 24,720 28,740 33,470 41,930 46, , , , , ,910 26,400 29,190 34,000 42,770 47, , , , , ,510 26,000 29,110 33,910 42,440 47, , , , , ,370 25,870 28,640 33,360 42,200 46, , , , , ,380 25,880 27,680 32,250 41,120 45, , ,620 Notes: The "Race/Ethnicity Total" column equals the sum of the five racial/ethnic group columns. Data reported as "Hawaiian/" were added to "" and A-4 October 2013

13 Appendix A: Projections by Sex SOUTH Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia , ,150 4,590 4,750 12,840 12,840 92, ,530 56,050 60, , , , ,740 4,830 4,870 13,380 13,100 95, ,030 60,310 64, , , , ,060 4,980 5,020 13,860 13,710 97, ,830 62,500 65, , , , ,970 4,950 5,110 14,830 14,640 97, ,530 64,590 67, , , , ,800 5,160 5,250 15,590 15, , ,300 67,100 69, , , , ,890 5,320 5,560 16,190 15, , ,460 74,130 78, , , , ,100 5,630 5,790 16,970 16, , ,300 82,410 86, , , , ,330 6,050 6,210 17,570 17, , ,930 89,340 93, , , , ,130 6,020 6,180 17,880 17, , ,900 95,230 99, , , , ,440 6,160 6,330 18,440 18, , ,500 97, , , , , ,150 6,390 6,560 19,450 19, , , , , , , , ,580 6,250 6,410 20,490 20, , ,720 99, , , , , ,780 6,540 6,710 21,610 21, , , , , , , , ,630 6,930 7,120 22,240 21, , , , , , , , ,030 7,190 7,380 22,990 22, , , , , , , , ,240 7,490 7,700 25,280 24, , , , , , , , ,620 7,790 8,000 26,510 26, , , , , , , , ,190 8,010 8,230 27,500 26, , , , , , , , ,500 8,060 8,270 29,650 29, , , , , , , , ,600 8,070 8,280 30,640 30, , , , , , , , ,660 8,530 8,760 32,040 31, , , , , , , , ,670 8,970 9,210 33,560 32, , , , , , , , ,620 9,370 9,620 36,340 35, , , , , , , , ,380 9,300 9,550 36,230 35, , , , , , , , ,420 9,070 9,310 36,900 36, , , , , , , , ,100 8,930 9,170 36,670 35, , , , , , ,630 Notes: The "Race/Ethnicity Total" column equals the sum of the five racial/ethnic group columns. Data reported as "Hawaiian/" were added to "" and October 2013 A-5

14 Knocking at the College Door ALABAMA ,450 19, ,090 6, ,840 12, ,700 18, ,180 6, ,010 11, ,930 19, ,300 6, ,080 12, ,150 19, ,420 6, ,160 12, ,690 20, ,590 6, ,440 12, ,780 21, ,940 7, ,100 13, ,210 21, ,220 7, ,120 13, ,440 22, ,410 7, ,070 13, ,090 22, ,580 8, ,500 13, ,860 22, ,450 7, ,340 13, ,650 22, ,290 7, ,220 13, ,670 21, ,870 7, ,650 12, ,930 21, ,860 7, ,830 13, ,030 21, ,850 7, ,820 13, ,460 22, ,850 7, ,190 13, ,960 22, ,040 7,450 1,020 1,110 13,270 13, ,740 22, ,920 7,290 1,150 1,240 13,050 13, ,200 21, ,680 7,000 1,190 1,290 12,710 12, ,100 21, ,430 6,690 1,350 1,470 12,640 12, ,290 21, ,440 6,700 1,400 1,520 12,700 12, ,680 22, ,410 6,660 2,000 2,160 12,330 12, ,690 23, ,800 7,140 2,330 2,530 12,640 12, ,400 24, ,940 7,330 2,630 2,850 12,790 12, ,230 24, ,990 7,390 2,580 2,790 12,650 12, ,570 23, ,780 7,120 2,490 2,700 12,210 12, ,770 22, ,470 6,740 2,360 2,560 11,860 12,040 Notes: The "Race/Ethnicity Total" column equals the sum of the five racial/ethnic group columns. Data reported as "Hawaiian/" were added to "" and A-6 October 2013

15 Appendix A: Projections by Sex ALASKA ,620 3, ,550 2, ,620 3, ,510 2, ,400 3, ,350 2, ,660 3, ,490 2, ,720 3, ,420 2, ,670 3, ,340 2, ,720 3, ,460 2, ,780 3, ,400 2, ,710 3, ,340 2, ,850 3, ,410 2, ,550 3, ,230 2, ,410 3, ,070 2, ,460 3, ,120 2, ,430 3, ,070 2, ,600 3, ,140 2, ,600 3, ,110 2, ,560 3, ,080 2, ,500 3, ,060 2, ,570 3, ,110 2, ,570 3, ,120 2, ,660 3, ,050 2, ,890 4, ,200 2, ,860 3, ,180 2, ,030 4, ,280 2, ,990 4, ,190 2, ,080 4, ,240 2,240 Notes: The "Race/Ethnicity Total" column equals the sum of the five racial/ethnic group columns. Data reported as "Hawaiian/" were added to "" and October 2013 A-7

16 Knocking at the College Door ARIZONA ,380 25,300 1,280 1, ,080 1,120 6,470 7,070 14,850 15, ,420 23,090 1,170 1, ,090 1,120 6,550 7,330 13,030 12, ,350 30,150 1,980 2, ,420 1,370 8,430 9,190 16,730 16, ,100 27,930 1,340 1, ,290 1,410 7,580 8,740 15,050 15, ,010 28,950 1,460 1, ,390 1,540 8,290 9,310 15,040 15, ,120 31,540 1,730 1, ,690 1,700 9,680 10,600 16,090 16, ,460 31,840 1,610 1,730 1,010 1,000 1,780 1,730 10,260 11,330 15,800 16, ,380 32,090 1,650 1, ,870 1,920 10,680 11,890 15,220 15, ,630 32,390 1,560 1,720 1,030 1,040 1,860 1,910 11,170 12,440 15,010 15, ,710 31,420 1,470 1,610 1,090 1,100 1,820 1,870 10,960 12,190 14,380 14, ,670 30,310 1,290 1,420 1,170 1,180 1,770 1,820 10,590 11,790 13,850 14, ,940 29,530 1,190 1,310 1,190 1,190 1,770 1,810 10,330 11,490 13,470 13, ,900 30,560 1,310 1,440 1,230 1,240 1,910 1,960 10,750 11,970 13,700 13, ,140 30,820 1,330 1,460 1,310 1,320 2,070 2,130 10,840 12,060 13,590 13, ,540 31,240 1,380 1,520 1,400 1,410 2,020 2,080 11,050 12,300 13,680 13, ,730 31,430 1,320 1,450 1,480 1,490 2,170 2,230 11,030 12,280 13,720 13, ,870 31,580 1,310 1,440 1,610 1,620 2,160 2,220 11,190 12,460 13,590 13, ,900 31,610 1,350 1,480 1,680 1,690 2,280 2,340 11,030 12,280 13,560 13, ,300 32,010 1,350 1,490 1,790 1,810 2,290 2,350 11,040 12,290 13,820 14, ,380 32,090 1,400 1,540 1,940 1,960 2,430 2,490 10,970 12,210 13,640 13, ,920 35,890 1,560 1,710 2,210 2,220 2,980 3,060 12,870 14,330 14,300 14, ,330 38,420 1,590 1,750 2,520 2,530 3,360 3,450 13,650 15,190 15,210 15, ,670 38,780 1,620 1,780 2,740 2,760 3,630 3,730 13,770 15,320 14,910 15, ,500 37,490 1,590 1,750 2,670 2,690 3,760 3,860 12,740 14,180 14,740 15, ,380 35,210 1,520 1,680 2,560 2,570 3,820 3,920 11,510 12,810 13,980 14, ,820 33,510 1,450 1,600 2,560 2,570 3,730 3,830 10,390 11,570 13,680 13,930 Notes: The "Race/Ethnicity Total" column equals the sum of the five racial/ethnic group columns. Data reported as "Hawaiian/" were added to "" and A-8 October 2013

17 Appendix A: Projections by Sex ARKANSAS ,450 14, ,620 3, ,230 10, ,450 13, ,580 3, ,230 10, ,220 13, ,600 2, ,890 9, ,090 14, ,780 3, ,430 10, ,860 14, ,690 3, ,230 10, ,890 14, ,790 3, ,080 10, ,090 13, ,780 3, ,180 9, ,010 14, ,770 3, ,980 9, ,920 14, ,790 3,230 1,000 1,050 9,770 9, ,680 14, ,680 3,100 1,020 1,080 9,640 9, ,460 13, ,590 3,000 1,070 1,120 9,440 9, ,680 14, ,650 3,070 1,160 1,220 9,490 9, ,810 14, ,630 3,050 1,230 1,300 9,520 9, ,860 14, ,660 3,080 1,320 1,390 9,440 9, ,210 14, ,630 3,050 1,430 1,500 9,690 9, ,340 14, ,630 3,040 1,560 1,640 9,630 9, ,530 15, ,650 3,070 1,660 1,750 9,690 9, ,440 14, ,590 3,000 1,820 1,920 9,510 9, ,530 15, ,520 2,920 1,930 2,030 9,510 9, ,550 15, ,490 2,890 1,990 2,100 9,450 9, ,360 15, ,540 2,940 2,500 2,630 9,660 9, ,070 16, ,710 3,140 2,710 2,850 10,020 9, ,270 16, ,800 3,240 2,740 2,890 10,050 10, ,900 16, ,770 3,210 2,620 2,760 9,850 9, ,570 16, ,650 3,070 2,550 2,680 9,740 9, ,090 15, ,540 2,950 2,470 2,600 9,440 9,410 Notes: The "Race/Ethnicity Total" column equals the sum of the five racial/ethnic group columns. Data reported as "Hawaiian/" were added to "" and October 2013 A-9

18 Knocking at the College Door CALIFORNIA , ,380 1,470 1,650 24,220 24,510 11,300 13,550 54,670 62,050 71,050 73, , ,380 1,470 1,570 24,310 24,460 11,660 13,600 56,600 64,820 69,640 71, , ,460 1,340 1,610 25,100 25,120 12,270 14,530 60,830 68,840 69,460 71, , ,040 1,300 1,520 25,570 25,540 11,600 13,720 57,980 65,580 68,130 69, , ,160 1,330 1,490 25,640 25,310 11,520 13,540 58,950 67,270 67,790 69, , ,750 1,400 1,670 27,050 26,970 11,950 13,960 66,510 75,980 69,830 71, , ,200 1,350 1,500 25,810 25,730 12,090 14,110 70,660 79,750 67,150 68, , ,170 1,460 1,690 28,650 28,560 12,480 14,670 75,420 85,600 67,150 68, , ,780 1,340 1,550 29,340 29,260 12,760 15,000 80,140 90,960 65,550 67, , ,860 1,340 1,560 28,430 28,340 11,670 13,720 77,990 88,520 62,330 63, , ,530 1,330 1,550 28,290 28,210 10,700 12,580 77,230 87,660 60,200 61, , ,610 1,270 1,470 27,430 27,350 9,730 11,440 75,720 85,950 57,140 58, , ,480 1,220 1,420 28,750 28,670 10,240 12,040 78,860 89,510 56,590 57, , ,850 1,190 1,390 26,890 26,810 9,670 11,370 78,380 88,960 55,100 56, , ,930 1,090 1,270 27,990 27,910 9,500 11,180 79,380 90,100 54,270 55, , ,280 1,070 1,240 29,070 28,980 9,190 10,800 81,190 92,160 52,930 54, , ,300 1,050 1,210 28,180 28,090 8,910 10,470 81,760 92,800 51,570 52, , ,610 1,030 1,190 28,190 28,110 8,630 10,150 82,370 93,490 50,550 51, , , ,130 29,200 29,120 8,330 9,800 84,460 95,860 51,130 52, , , ,130 29,080 28,990 8,080 9,500 85,740 97,320 50,830 51, , ,220 1,020 1,190 29,090 29,000 8,000 9,400 88, ,980 48,570 49, , ,280 1,090 1,260 30,310 30,220 8,550 10,050 92, ,560 48,130 49, , ,090 1,070 1,240 31,330 31,240 8,340 9,800 93, ,800 46,960 48, , ,320 1,110 1,280 31,220 31,120 8,610 10,120 90, ,320 46,450 47, , ,280 1,060 1,230 30,530 30,440 8,310 9,770 84,550 95,970 44,870 45, , ,140 1,050 1,210 29,330 29,240 8,080 9,500 80,760 91,670 44,530 45,520 Notes: The "Race/Ethnicity Total" column equals the sum of the five racial/ethnic group columns. Data reported as "Hawaiian/" were added to "" and A-10 October 2013

19 Appendix A: Projections by Sex COLORADO ,680 21, ,010 2,940 3,330 16,070 16, ,040 22, ,200 3,430 3,770 16,620 16, ,990 22, ,060 1,160 3,490 3,870 16,510 16, ,510 22, ,140 3,590 4,140 15,950 16, ,200 23, ,070 1,350 3,830 4,270 16,290 16, ,600 23, ,180 1,320 3,980 4,470 16,440 16, ,230 24, ,280 1,340 4,390 4,980 16,490 16, ,190 25, ,370 1,550 5,000 5,640 16,690 17, ,910 26, ,230 1,400 5,940 6,700 16,720 17, ,740 24, ,110 1,260 5,580 6,290 16,020 16, ,380 24, ,100 1,250 5,400 6,090 15,780 16, ,640 23, ,060 1,200 5,090 5,740 15,420 15, ,570 24, ,030 1,060 1,210 5,580 6,300 15,750 16, ,150 25, ,010 1,070 1,140 1,300 5,920 6,680 15,890 16, ,710 26, ,030 1,100 1,150 1,300 6,170 6,960 16,170 16, ,560 26, ,110 1,180 1,160 1,320 6,410 7,230 16,680 17, ,020 27, ,150 1,220 1,150 1,300 6,460 7,280 17,050 17, ,380 27, ,230 1,310 1,150 1,310 6,580 7,420 17,230 17, ,210 28, ,320 1,400 1,210 1,370 6,760 7,620 17,730 18, ,040 28, ,360 1,440 1,180 1,330 6,680 7,530 17,620 17, ,180 28, ,530 1,630 1,490 1,690 6,610 7,460 17,310 17, ,740 29, ,560 1,660 1,490 1,690 6,870 7,750 17,560 17, ,840 29, ,590 1,690 1,590 1,800 6,610 7,450 17,780 18, ,570 29, ,560 1,660 1,610 1,820 6,450 7,270 17,690 18, ,190 28, ,630 1,730 1,600 1,810 6,120 6,910 17,560 17, ,380 27, ,640 1,740 1,630 1,850 5,800 6,540 17,060 17,390 Notes: The "Race/Ethnicity Total" column equals the sum of the five racial/ethnic group columns. Data reported as "Hawaiian/" were added to "" and October 2013 A-11

20 Knocking at the College Door CONNECTICUT ,520 17, ,840 2,120 1,520 1,730 12,610 12, ,060 17, ,790 2,110 1,590 1,730 13,070 13, ,580 17, ,870 2,180 1,740 1,980 13,350 13, ,820 18, ,950 2,240 1,750 1,870 13,440 13, ,560 18, ,130 2,560 2,020 2,120 13,750 13, ,140 19, ,290 2,480 2,090 2,360 14,040 13, ,270 17, ,010 2,210 1,870 1,990 12,700 12, ,290 18, ,200 2,500 2,210 2,400 13,110 13, ,590 19, ,250 2,560 2,390 2,610 13,190 13, ,020 18, ,050 2,340 2,360 2,570 12,760 12, ,670 18, ,030 2,310 2,320 2,530 12,460 12, ,090 17, ,890 2,150 2,220 2,420 12,140 12, ,100 17, ,030 2,310 2,370 2,590 11,820 11, ,210 17, ,000 2,280 2,540 2,770 11,720 11, ,990 17, ,000 2,270 2,520 2,750 11,530 11, ,830 17, ,960 2,230 2,600 2,840 11,230 11, ,630 17, ,910 2,170 2,660 2,900 11,030 10, ,230 16, ,070 1,050 1,880 2,150 2,640 2,880 10,600 10, ,590 17, ,130 1,110 1,890 2,150 2,800 3,050 10,720 10, ,070 16, ,140 1,120 1,870 2,130 2,800 3,060 10,220 10, ,270 16, ,300 1,280 1,940 2,210 2,970 3,240 9,990 9, ,310 16, ,290 1,270 2,060 2,340 3,160 3,440 9,730 9, ,260 16, ,400 1,380 2,060 2,350 3,270 3,570 9,450 9, ,750 16, ,360 1,340 2,050 2,340 3,200 3,490 9,070 9, ,150 15, ,300 1,280 1,980 2,260 3,170 3,450 8,620 8, ,750 15, ,380 1,360 1,890 2,150 3,050 3,320 8,350 8,310 Notes: The "Race/Ethnicity Total" column equals the sum of the five racial/ethnic group columns. Data reported as "Hawaiian/" were added to "" and A-12 October 2013