Spacious Skies Ahead for Alcoa Aerospace. American Metal Market Sixth Annual Aerospace Materials Conference April 25, 2012
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1 Spacious Skies Ahead for Alcoa Aerospace American Metal Market Sixth Annual Aerospace Materials Conference April 25, 2012
2 Cautionary Statement Forward-Looking Statements This presentation contains statements that relate to future events and expectations and as such constitute forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements include those containing such words as anticipates, estimates, expects, forecasts, intends, outlook, plans, projects, should, targets, will, or other words of similar meaning. All statements that reflect Alcoa s expectations, assumptions, or projections about the future other than statements of historical fact are forward-looking statements, including, without limitation, forecasts concerning global demand growth for aluminum, end-market conditions, and growth opportunities for aluminum in automotive, aerospace and other applications, trend projections, targeted financial results or operating performance, and statements about Alcoa s strategies, outlook, and business and financial prospects. Forward-looking statements are subject to a number of known and unknown risks, uncertainties, and other factors and are not guarantees of future performance. Important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements include: (a) material adverse changes in aluminum industry conditions, including global supply and demand conditions and fluctuations in London Metal Exchange-based prices for primary aluminum, alumina, and other products, and fluctuations in indexed-based and spot prices for alumina; (b) deterioration in global economic and financial market conditions generally; (c) unfavorable changes in the markets served by Alcoa, including automotive and commercial transportation, aerospace, building and construction, distribution, packaging, defense, and industrial gas turbine; (d) the impact of changes in foreign currency exchange rates on costs and results, particularly the Australian dollar, Brazilian real, Canadian dollar, euro, and Norwegian kroner; (e) increases in energy costs, including electricity, natural gas, and fuel oil, or the unavailability or interruption of energy supplies; (f) increases in the costs of other raw materials, including calcined petroleum coke, caustic soda, and liquid pitch; (g) Alcoa s inability to achieve the level of revenue growth, cash generation, cost savings, improvement in profitability and margins, fiscal discipline, or strengthening of competitiveness and operations (including moving its alumina refining and aluminum smelting businesses down on the industry cost curves and increasing revenues in its Flat-Rolled Products and Engineered Products and Solutions segments) anticipated from its restructuring programs and productivity improvement, cash sustainability, and other initiatives; (h) Alcoa's inability to realize expected benefits from newly constructed, expanded, or acquired facilities or from international joint ventures as planned and by targeted completion dates, including the joint venture in Saudi Arabia, the upstream operations in Brazil, and the investments in hydropower projects in Brazil; (i) political, economic, and regulatory risks in the countries in which Alcoa operates or sells products, including unfavorable changes in laws and governmental policies, civil unrest, or other events beyond Alcoa s control; (j) the outcome of contingencies, including legal proceedings, government investigations, and environmental remediation; (k) the business or financial condition of key customers, suppliers, and business partners; (l) adverse changes in tax rates or benefits; (m) adverse changes in discount rates or investment returns on pension assets; and (n) the other risk factors summarized in Alcoa's Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2011 and other reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Alcoa disclaims any obligation to update publicly any forwardlooking statements, whether in response to new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by applicable law. 2
3 Alcoa at a Glance Founded in locations 31 countries $25.0 billion 2011 revenue Alcoa s lost workday injury rate is 1/10 that of the average U.S. manufacturing workplace Award-winning sustainability leadership >120 years of aluminum technical leadership Number of Employees (2011) U.S. 26,000 Europe 17,000 Other Americas 11,000 Pacific 7,000 61,000 3
4 More solutions by virtue of a uniquely broad engagement across the aerospace market Unmatched global footprint First flight to now wisdom Multi-material expertise Multi-market segment engagement Alcoa Fastening Systems 2011 Aero Revenues = $3.4B Alcoa Power and Propulsion (aka Alcoa Howmet ) Global Rolled Products Material agnostic it s about the best solution Forgings & Extrusions 4
5 Investing in new technologies and capabilities an Alcoa tradition continuing Solutions from Alcoa s global technology network fly far beyond advanced alloys to design, manufacturing and assembly for all major aircraft wing and fuselage structures World s largest light metals research center From alloys to processes to structures to fasteners a continuing tradition of investment & innovation leadership 50K-ton Forging Press ~$100M investment restores industry leading forging capability and is now in production 5
6 Positioned for the LCA ramp up LCA Delivery Projections 2012 to Airline Monitor (Jan 2012) ROM (Sept 2011) Teal Group (Dec 2011) : Even if not as optimistic as the OEMs most are predicting a record setting 3 years of aircraft deliveries Ready to deliver: Proven global capacity Proven supply chain reliability 6
7 A set of solutions spanning all aircraft life-cycle phases As You Conceive & Design Structural design y development p Alloy Dedicated designers A Y As You R Retire i IIt Recyclable As You Build Lower mfg and assembly costs program g Reduced p risk A Y As You M Maintain i i It I Corrosion resistant Meet emerging inspection interval requirements As You Prototype & Test Rapid prototyping Trusted and credible technical experts A You Y Fly Fl It As Lightweight Low operating cost Aerodynamic A Value Proposition that works for Airframers and their customers Alcoa Aerospace - American Metal Market Aerospace Materials Conference April
8 Aerospace Plastic Weight When doesn t choosing a lighter material result in a lighter airplane part? 1 CFRP starts off with a 45% density advantage 2 25% of that advantage is lost because CFRP for an identically-sized chunk of raw material is orthotropic it needs to be applied in multiple layers to carry an equal load 45% advantage - plastic Aluminum strength in every direction 20% advantage - plastic 3 10% of the remaining advantage is lost due to 4 The last 10% is lost to the addition of other addition of other materials and components to materials for strength and the inability to taper provide multi-functionality needed in aircraft CFRP to the same extent as aluminum copper mesh fasteners To deal with things like lightning, electrical grounding, etc Titanium is 60% denser than aluminum Tapering in metal can be done more efficiently for cut-outs bus bar 10% advantage - plastic 0% Advantage GONE! No amount of learning or scale can alter what are the natural physical properties of the material itself 8
9 With every component a contest of materials, Alcoa is changing the conventional wisdom Boeing 787 & Airbus A350XWB decisions based on best info available but consider recent Al fuselage (CSeries) & Al wing (MRJ) decisions and even more recent decisions for new ultra-efficient single & twin aisles what s best for the next aircraft? Alcoa s 3rd-generation lightweight aluminium lithium (Al-Li) is a viable option makes sense in significantly trimming weight Aspire, February
10 Pinch Points? Supply Chain Risks Beyond CFRP Twin Aisles 10
11 Courtesy of Roland Berger A more modest outlook for CFRP proliferation 11
12 Responding to demand for aluminum-lithium solutions: a global, three pronged investment plan New casting complex (USA) Unique design Adds 20kT capacity Eliminates pinch points 4Q2014 Casting expansion (UK) 4Q2012 Casting expansion (USA) 30% increase 4Q2012 well understood technology requires little to no modification in the (airframer) production process Aspire, February
13 Lets not forget important advancements in nonlithium alloys are bringing value to airframers High Perf Structural Plate SCC-ST threshold (min) Ftu, L (S or A) Fty, L (S or A) Kapp, L-T T(Typ) Ftu, L (S or A) Upper Wing Fty, L (S or A) 0.90 Fbry, e/d=1.5 L (S or A) High Perf Structural Plate SCC-ST ST threshold h (min) Comparison at 2-3in thickness KIc, L-T (S) 7050-T T7651 C85T-T7651 Ftu, L (A) Fty, L (A) Alcoa products expand the performance envelope KIc, L-T (S) Comparison at in. thickness Fcy, L (S or A) 7150-T T T7751 Density -2% Ftu, L (S) % 0.90 Lower Wing Fty, L (S) Fbry, e/d=1.5 L (A) Comparison at 4-5in thickness KIc, L-T (S) Fcy, L (S) Kapp, L-T (Typ) 2024-T T T T T T
14 It s not just about industry leading new products anymore Our approach has shifted from material properties to meeting aircraft mission needs through in-depth customer collaborations focused on design drivers across aircraft applications our unique structural design resources and tools allow us to develop innovations of value for airframers and their customers 14
15 Alcoa creates & integrates technology beyond Al-Li to enable Next Gen enhanced structures Innovative lightweight structures provide enhanced comfort & extended inspection intervals Performanc ce Lighter structures & improved corrosion performance Conventional metallic baseline Time CFRP Design Freezes Current Supports EIS Beyond
16 Ready to meet the needs of current production and to deliver next generation solutions Alcoa s focus on the best solution coupled with our customer intimacy and market reach make us material agnostic and a partner that can be counted on No technology gaps or pinch points Aluminum investments in alloy development continuing to meet the needs of Next Gen aircraft Design, structural and assembly innovations maturing for aircraft EIS > 2015 No capacity constraints t Current capacity supports projected build rates Al-Li capacity investments will meet future requirements Al-Li products fit current airframer supply chains no extraordinary investments required as with alternative materials Alcoa s advanced metallic technologies provide high-performance, low-weight, weight low-cost, and low-risk solutions for Next Gen aircraft with growing industry expert endorsement 16
17 Thanks and Questions Tony Morales Global Marketing Director, Aerospace & Defense Alcoa Global Aerospace, Transportation, & Industrial Rolled Products com 17
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