Analytic Framework for Increasing Attainment in a Region CASE STUDY

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1 A FRAMEWORK TO UNDERSTAND POSTSECONDARY ATTAINMENT: Why Is It Important? How Do We Get It? AUGUST 13,

2 Goals for This Session Provide an Analytic Framework for Thinking About Talent Development Evidence-based framework to determine how a regional business association might focus its talent development strategy. Group Exercise and Discussion Using and interpreting the data. Implications for strategy. 2

3 Analytic Framework for Increasing Attainment in a Region FIVE CRITICAL METRICS: 1. On-Time High School Graduation Rate 2. College Continuation Rate 3. Adult Postsecondary Participation Rate 4. College Completion Rate 5. Retention & Attraction 3

4 Analytic Framework for Increasing Attainment in a Region CASE STUDY: Jacksonville, Florida Impetus: Low attainment rate: 36% Disconnect between K-12 & higher ed Employer demand not met Ability to attract jobs hampered 4

5 Analytic Framework for Increasing Attainment in a Region CASE STUDY: Jacksonville, Florida Analytic Framework Approach: Structural, not transactional Drives where to focus w limited resources Serves to keep dialog high-level When used well, can build trust w partners 5

6 Analytic Framework for Increasing Attainment in a Region CASE STUDY: Jacksonville, Florida In addition to analytics: Policy only? 100% analytics OK Driving strategy, governing or programming? Need a balancing act to build trust Education leaders can view data like hammer versus flashlight Data-lovers needed to wade into the weeds school data vs. state data vs. IPEDS vs. NSC 6

7 Internal reporting 7 7

8 8 External reporting

9 Analytic Framework for Increasing Attainment in a Region FIVE CRITICAL METRICS: 1. On-Time High School Graduation Rate 2. College Continuation Rate 3. Adult Postsecondary Participation Rate 4. College Completion Rate 5. Retention & Attraction 9

10 What Can A Chamber Do? Deciding Where to Intervene Running the Numbers Let s look together at the numbers for a selected region Jacksonville. We ll determine the likely results of focusing on each of the critical metrics. Then, we ll ask you to undertake this same kind of analysis for other selected regions. 10

11 Key Metrics for Jacksonville In Jacksonville: 70% of 9 th graders graduate from high school four years later (central urban school district), 63.1 % of those graduates go on to college within 12 months (statewide rate), 6.7% of adults without any postsecondary credential are enrolled in postsecondary institutions (statewide rate), 57% of those enrolling in public postsecondary institutions ever graduate with any credential. Completion rates in private institutions are only slightly better. 11

12 Setting Very Ambitious Goals for HS Graduation Increasing to national graduation average (75%), of 9,332 9 th graders in JAX who graduate 4 years later yields an additional 467 graduates. But if only 63% of them go on to college and 57% of those actually gain a credential, we gain only 168 people with postsecondary credentials. 12

13 Setting Very Ambitious Goals for College Continuation Increasing the percentage of 9,332 9 th graders in JAX who go on to college after graduating from high school 4 years later to the level of highest performing state (73%) yields an additional 3,360 attendees. If 57% of those actually gain a credential, we gain 1,915 people with degrees. 13

14 Setting Very Ambitious Goals for Adult Participation Rate There are 218,705 adults (25-49 years old) in Jacksonville area with no postsecondary credential who are now enrolled in college. That s 6.7% of total in this cohort. If we were to see an increase to 10% (the top performing state), we would gain 7,217 enrollees. And if 57% of them were to complete some sort of credential, we would gain 4,113 people with some postsecondary attainment. 14

15 Setting Very Ambitious Goals for College Completion In 2012, 9,689 Jacksonville-area students enrolled for the first time in public and private colleges in the region, 2-year and 4-year institutions. Of those going to public colleges, 68% started in 2-year institutions where they face a 52.8%** six-year completion rate, 32% started in 4-year colleges where they face a 60.4% six-year completion rate. If we could increase the average rate of completion for all institutions where they are enrolled to the level of the top performing states, we would gain 1,213** new residents with some postsecondary attainment. 15

16 Implementing the Framework As a group, use analytical framework to: identify the scale of opportunities for each metric, understand the consequence as well as the compound effect of effort for each metric, and inform your decision making around chamber strategy along the five metrics Break into eight groups: Dayton Indianapolis Greenville Spokane 16

17 Instructions 1. Estimate the gains that your region will achieve with increases in each of the metrics 2. Discuss key observations or takeaways from estimates your group calculates: What metric has the potential for the most gain? The least gain? What surprised you in the data? What key questions do you have or what issues do the data leave out? 17

18 Instructions 3. Identify key strategies that will influence metrics to achieve greater educational attainment. In group deliberations, consider: your chamber will have to make decisions to prioritize your efforts; where other organizations and leaders are likely focused or not focused related to each metric; where you have likely partners or entities that you want to work with to gain quick legitimacy to influence the strategies. 18

19 Instructions 4. Prioritize your strategies: be prepared to make a case to other groups why you chose to focus on these strategies; bring any overriding questions or issues that this exercise raised for your group. 19

20 BRIAN BOSWORTH (617)