Emerging trends for DRM

Transcription

1 Emerging trends for DRM Sriganesh Lokanathan Workshop on ICT for Promo9ng Inclusive and Disaster Resilient Development Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia 14 th May 2015 This work was carried out with the aid of a grant from the Interna9onal Development Research Centre, Canada.

2 ICTs play a role in all aspects of the disaster lifecycle. 2

3 but today I will concentrate on 3 emergent trends 1. New data sources of relevance Big data and specifically mobile network big data 2. Thinking about infrastructure holis9cally Smart grids 3. An9fragility i.e. coming back stronger than before 3

4 Mobile Network Big Data has a lot of relevance for DRM Big Data = data sets that cannot be processed using tradi9onal data- processing applica9ons and techniques It can provide 9mely informa9on of relevance to disaster recovery as well as disaster risk reduc9on It can also provide 9mely informa9on on human behavioral pawerns such as migra9on, mobility, social networks, etc. 4

5 Facilita9ng recovery efforts: POC from Hai9 Post- earthquake distribu9on of Port au Prince (Hai9) popula9on a_er the 2010 earthquake: The figure shows the number of people es9mated to have been in Port- au- Prince (PaP) on the day of the 2010 Hai9 earthquake, but outside the capital 19 days later. The circles represent the numbers of people who were displaced. Source: Bengtsson, L., Lu, X., Thorson, A., Garfield, R., & von Schreeb, J. (2011). Improved response to disasters and outbreaks by tracking population movements with mobile phone network data: a post-earthquake geospatial study in Haiti. PLoS Medicine, 8(8), e doi: / journal.pmed

6 MNBD for planning: Popula2on density changes in Colombo region Weekday Pictures depict the change in popula2on density at a par2cular 2me rela2ve to midnight Time 12:30 Time 18:30 Sunday Time 06:30 Decrease in Density Increase in Density 6

7 MNBD for planning: 46.9% of Colombo City s day9me popula9on comes from the surrounding regions Colombo city is made up of Colombo and Thimbirigasyaya DSDs Home DSD Colombo city %age of Colombo s day2me popula2on Maharagama Kolonnawa Kaduwela Sri Jayawardanapura KoWe Dehiwala Kesbewa WaWala Kelaniya Ratmalana Moratuwa 1.8 7

8 MNBD can help track the spread of infec9ous diseases (e.g. malaria in Kenya) The figure represents a visual mapping of malaria transmission routes. Each settlement was allocated to one of twenty regions by a clustering based on homogenous malaria risk and geography (the different color dots). Regions near Lake Victoria (LV), in Nairobi (Nairobi), the central areas (Cen), and along the coast (C) are labeled accordingly. The background yellow and red colors, represents areas of high malaria prevalence (in red) and those of low prevalence (in yellow) Lake Victoria Nairobi Indian Ocean Source: Wesolowski, A., Eagle, N., Tatem, A. J., Smith, D. L., Noor, A. M., Snow, R. W., & Buckee, C. O. (2012). Quantifying the impact of human mobility on malaria. Science (New York, N.Y.), 338(6104), doi: /science

9 MNBD gained renewed interest a_er the recent Ebola crises in W Africa Also see 9

10 Poten9al use of big data for DRM MNBD can provide high- frequency and temporally granular insights on human mobility Useful for planning for disaster mi9ga9on By understanding how people s mobility responded to previous shocks can aid planning for future disasters Post- disaster recovery efforts can be greatly aided by knowing where the popula9on has been displaced It is key therefore for the ICT infrastructure to be highly resilient 10

11 Challenges in using big data for Geing access: DRM O_en data belongs to private organiza9ons and not amenable to open data policies Safeguarding privacy Where can the data reside? 11

12 Thinking holis9cally about resilient infrastructure: electricity is key for ICTs & vice versa for smart grids Smart grids include communica9on systems that permit the supplier to know what is happening at the customer s site and at the genera9ng sites in real 9me Keeps track of all available power sources and demands on the network Uses ICTs to monitor and manage the distribu9on of electricity from transmission to end- users Thereby, responding efficiently to the demands of the user Allows for risk prone areas to be shielded from potential cascading effects caused by disasters Requires considerable investment, policy and market certainty 12

13 Plans for greater ICT resilience a_er Great Tohoku Earthquake & Tsunami - Respect hazard maps created by local authori9es - Increased backup power at BTS - Increased use of large- zone BTS (~7 Km radius) - Main switch buildings relocated to 2 nd floor of buildings with water gates on the ground floor - Light- weight satellite antennas deployed on normal vehicles - Priori9zed network traffic to mi9gate network conges9on - A_er a disaster voice, messages converted to files for transmission over the packet network 13

14 NTT R&D on technologies to counter the effects of a disaster A telescopic joint and duct sleeve that can expand and contract to offset the tension along the axes of the conduits Gravel drains around manholes to equalize the effects of ground liquidizing (and therefore the poten9al surfacing of equipment) 14

15 Policy Recommenda9ons Leverage new data sources: Create space for innova9ons and unique collabora9ons Facilitate data access Engage with member governments to impress upon them the concepts of inter- dependent and cri9cal infrastructures Support and enable policies conducive to the construc9on and opera9on of resilient mesh networks (for interna9onal backhaul) across the Asia Pacific E.g. facilita9ng the crea9on of terrestrial links such as APIS 15