Trends in Transportation

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1 Trends in Transportation Timothy Papandreou Director Strategic Planning & Policy Sustainable

2 Baby Boomers Millennials Drop in Licenses & Revenues Ubiquitous Connectivity Work Anywhere Everywhere Changing Preferences Big Trends Major societal and system changes

3 The trend is clear: Access trumps possession. Access is better than Kevin Kelly ownership Paradigm Shift Access trumps ownership

4 Big Trends Car Peaking in Industrialized world

5 Transport Trends Growing Transportation costs

6 Dec 2013: 675 Cities 700,000 bikes & 33,000 stations Source: metrobike Transport Trends Bike Sharing Global Growth

7 Source: metrobike Transport Trends Car Sharing Global Growth

8 Transport Trends Growing private electro mobility market

9 Transport Trends Growing sustainable mobility market

10 Big Trends Electro mobility is growing

11 epublic Transport escooters etaxi Fleet Transport Trends ebikeshare ecar Sharing & ecity Fleet Growing shared electro mobility market

12 Shared Mobility Targeted Electric Sharing Mobility

13 Transport Trends Disrupters in transport space

14 Transport Trends Major societal and service system changes

15 Transport Trends New players create controversy

16 Sustainability in Action New & Traditional players friction

17 Transport Trends New players competition

18 Transport Trends Climate Goals vs Sustainability goals

19 Transport Trends Climate Goals vs Sustainability goals

20 Governance: Multiple providers & partnerships, data driven policy, integration of everything Customer Focused Integration: Modes, routes, insurance, booking and payments Scaling Up: Network and mode growth, street allocation sharing, and funding partnerships Transport Trends Positive Behavioral Change: Improved traffic safety & public health, efficient, sustainable and effective mobility Mobility is key to quality of life and cities

21 Transport Modes Concept: Timothy Papandreou Traditional Mode dominated engineering

22 Privately Owned Vehicles Public Transit, Rail, Bus, Ferry Regional & Intercity Services: Rail, High Speed Rail, Air Shared Fleet Vehicles Employer Shuttles, Jitneys Commercial Deliveries Taxi, Limousine & Transportation Network Companies Transportation Today Multiple modes, little or no integration Concept: Timothy Papandreou

23 Public Transit Taxis & Limos Ridesharing Carsharing Scooter Sharing Shuttle services Bike sharing Transportation Network Companies Jitneys Driving/Driverless Integrated Modes Integrated and optimized for viablity Concept: Timothy Papandreou

24 Traditional Trending Future I own and use my own transportation I own my transportation and/or access shared mobility options I access a menu of mobility options to meet my needs Suburban Rural Urban Core Urban Core Suburban Rural Transportation Policy Shifting of transportation norms 24

25 SF Private Auto Fleet Trends and Goals Trend Private Auto Fleet (000s) % private auto fleet reduction potential with significant vehicle sharing growth Vehicle Sharing Opportunity Potential Concept: Timothy Papandreou 0% Goal Trends Growth will need to be offset by vehicle sharing

26 California Integrated Transportation Framework Transportation Policy Integration of policies at all levels 26

27 Demand Management Smart Land-Use Demand Pricing Infrastructure Support Travel Choices Public Transit Complete Streets Vehicle Sharing Transport Trends Integrated strategies at all levels

28 Complete Streets Urban specific needs over state/fed highway 28

29 Pedestrian Strategy Complete Streets: Walking 29

30 People Walking, Bicycling, Driving, Passengers Public Health Data Driven Traffic Safety Focus: Vision Zero 30

31 Pedestrian Strategy Temporary Innovative people spaces tested for 31 n hood economic benefits

32 High Injury Corridors Open Health & Transport Spatial Analytics Database Health data driven investment to minimize historic safety inequities Health based Transport metrics to eliminate traffic deaths Public Health Transport Injury Surveillance focused investment Integrated Focused Analysis guides Transport 32

33 Sustainable Communities Index Air Quality Modeling Traffic related Noise Modeling Person Injury Forecasting Pedestrian and Bicycle Environmental Quality Indices Health Impact Assessments Public Health Health Impact Assessments Guide Transport 33

34 Transport Strategies Complete Streets: Bicycle 34

35 LTS 1 Everyone feels comfortable to ride LTS 2 Adults feel comfortable to ride LTS 3 Enthused and Confident will ride LTS 4 Only Strong and Fearless will ride Bicycle Strategy Level of Traffic Stress Methodology Assessment 35

36 Bicycle Strategy Prioritize focus on key demand corridors 36

37 Assessment 2013 Applied 2013/ Bicycle Strategy Applying assessment analysis by corridor

38 38 Example of upgrade at Valencia and Market Intersection Bicycle Strategy Applying Assessment for Upgrades

39 Bicycle Strategy Prioritize focus on key demand corridors 39

40 Workshops Engage community to provide input 40

41 Disruption events Participate and learn best practices 41

42 Hackathons Engage community to provide solutions 42

43 Crowd Sourcing Engage community to provide input 43

44 = Silos of Systems Concept: Timothy Papandreou Multiple providers, agreements, insurance, payments, routes, booking = headaches! 44

45 Customer Experience Routing Booking Payments Credits/Offsets Games/Value add Concept: Timothy Papandreou Customer Focus Integrated for the customer experience

46 Concept: Timothy Papandreou Illustration: Kathleen Phu Monica Munowitch, Leslie Bienenfeld, Audrey Koh Integration Vision One system select route, choose mode, book it and go!

47 Globe Sherpa Integration Partners Integrators apps, ticketing un locking

48 Integrate Public Transit & Private Shuttles E Taxi Expand Hybrid Service Car, bike and scooter sharing Pilots Transport Trends Pilot 900 On-street car spaces Pilot 100 bikesharing spaces Pilot 100 E-Bikes with CarShare Pilots, Partnerships to guide Policy

49 Local Network Stop Rapid Network Stop Rapid Network Stop Local Network Stop Concept: Timothy Papandreou Illustration: Kathleen Phu Monica Munowitch, Leslie Bienenfeld, Audrey Koh Integrated City Conventional policy of street space

50 Compact Mixed Use Shared Use Pods Local Bus & Shuttle Boarding Compact Mixed Use Shared Use Pods Rapid & Shuttle Boarding Rapid Network & Shuttle Boarding Compact Mixed Use Compact Mixed Use Concept: Timothy Papandreou Illustration: Kathleen Phu and Audrey Koh Smart City Redesign streets to focus on connected shared use mobility tied to mixed use

51 @timpapandreou Rapid Network Boarding Island Concept: Timothy Papandreou Illustration: Kathleen Phu and Audrey Koh Smart City Vision Integrated for the customer experience 51

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