# The Great Complexity of the World Around Us

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1 Sofia, Bulgaria University of National & World Economy, NRS Department March 22, 2012

2 The Great Complexity of the World Around Us Building Context The Scenario Method Some Practical Examples Selected References

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6 Brainstorming (initial ideas generation); Modified Delphi method (filtering process);

7 Techniques: Morphological analysis; System analysis; Working environment: MS Office/OpenOffice; Intelligent Scenario Computer Interface Program (I-SCIP).

8 Complete task consideration; Wide used for classification tasks; Familiar to the security & social sciences.

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12 Possible combinations: 3 Х 4 Х 2 Х 2 Х 3 Х 5 = 720

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14 Intuitive entity-relationship notation; Details consideration; Familiar to the military & scientific world.

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19 ? Initial Configuration New Configuration after Q optimization

20 Directed Weighted Graph G = (V,A) V 1 A n A 1 V n A 2 V 2 A= {A 1, A 2,.,q i,,a n } with Q weights, where Q = {q 1, q 2, q i,,q n }, q N, q [1, 100] Z = ( q i - ) 2 + ( p j - ) 2, s.t. 0 < q i, 0 < p j i=1,,n, j=1,,m;, - desired position in the cluster set Minimize Z

21 Minimize the Objective Function Z: Solution: x 12 x 21 x 23 x 32 x 31 x 13 ## The following warning was issued while solving: necessary conditions met but sufficient conditions not satisfied Objective value: 0. x12 = 50. x13 = 0. x21 = 50. x23 = 30. x31 = 0. x32 = 15. (x12 + x32-65) 2 +(x21 + x23-80) 2 S.t. the following constraints: x12 [0, ) x13 [0, ) x21 [0, ) x23 [0, ) x31 [0, ) x32 [0, ) x21 + x x21 +x31 x12 + x x12 +x13 x13 + x x13 +x23 x31 + x x31 +x32

22 Oden, Moser & Ghattas, Computer Predictions with Quantified Uncertainty, SIAM NEWS, November 12, 2010.

23 f t Example: f t Lorenz system

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30 Industry Academia SysSec Community Other Stakeholders Center of Research Excellence Center of Academic Excellence (Education)

31 Cyber Threats Identification & Research roadmap construction

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37 NATO Tour of Opinion Leaders to Allied Command Transformation, 2010.

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39 MoFA MoD MoI MoEM Special Services NC3A NCSA NAMSA Integrated Security Sector Integrated Security Sector C4ISR Requirements Life Cycle Cooperative Support NPC Industry Civil Society Complex Crisis Management Operations of the Integrated Security Sector strongly dependent of information Integrated Funding Model Partner nations MN Projects Integration Fund ACT-MB IC - NSIP ACO-MB NC3A HQ-CB NATO nations Regional Cooperation Support Partner Organizations

40 New NATO Defense Planning Process Lisbon Critical Capabilities Capability Requirement Review Alliance Declaration NATO Strategic Concept Targets National White Papers National Investment Plan / C4ISR projects Software maintenance and enhancement Documentation Training Helpdesk Support to industry Acquisition, Legal and Finance management services Battle Laboratory Services, Implementation support

41 NATO ACT (Transformation Authority) ACO (Operational Authority) NAC / CNAD, NC3B NC3O (charter) C4ISR MoU Nation-NC3A NATO & Partner Nations National MODs, etc. (National operational, transformation, support authorities) NCSA (Operation and Maintenance Authority) NAMSA (Support Authority) FACILITATION NC3A (implementation Authority) MN Project Board Other NATO Entities DNBL Authority Cooperation / partnership Results Benefiting Both NATO and Nations (incl. Industry)

42 Minchev, Z. CAX application for simulation and training in support of CIMIC. The Bulgarian academic experience, Amsterdam, the Netherlands, MCC 2011 Conference, October 17-18, 2011, Published in Military Communications and Information Technology: A Comprehensive Approach Enabler, Military University of Technology, Warsaw, Poland, 71-81, Shalamanov, V., Minchev, Z. Information Technologies in Support to Counterterrorism in Culturally and Linguistically Diverse Communities, NATO ARW 'Couter Terrorism in Culturally and Linguistically Diverse Communities', May 9-10, Antalya, Turkey, 2011, Published in 'Counter Terrorism in Diverse Communities' (Editor: Siddik Ekici), NATO Science for Peace and Security Series - E: Human and Societal Dynamics, Volume 90, , Minchev, Z., Shalamanov, V., Scenario Generation and Assessment Framework Solution in Support of the Comprehensive Approach, In Proceedings of SAS-081 Symposium on Analytical Support to Defence Transformation, RTO-MP-SAS-081, Sofia, Boyana, April 26 28, , Minchev, Z. Intelligent Scenario Development for CAX, In Proceedings of NATO ARW: Scientific Support for the Decision Making in the Security Sector (Editors: Ognyan Kounchev, Rene Willems, Velizar Shalamanov and Tsvetomir Tsachev), Velingrad, Bulgaria, October 21-25, 2006, Published by IOS Press Amsterdam, NATO Science for Peace Security Series, D: Information and Communication Security, vol.12, 16-24, 2007.

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