On the System Dynamics of the Logistic Risk of Marketing Channels

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1 1194 JOURNAL OF SOFTWARE, VOL. 8, NO. 5, MAY 2013 On the System Dynmcs of the Logstc Rsk of Mrketng Chnnels Yng M School of Mngement, Wuhn Unversty of Technology, Wuhn, Chn Eml: myng331@163.com Fe Feng School of Mngement, Wuhn Unversty of Technology, Wuhn, Chn Eml: ffe@163.com Astrct Logstcs runs through the entre process of n enterprse s proucton n mngement. Logstcs, s n enterprse s "the thr proft source", s n effectve mngement tools for compnes to otn n mntn compettve vntge, the mngement of logstcs rsk of mrketng chnnels s crtcl prt of the rsk mngement of chnnels. The pper ntrouces the logstcs rsk types, n from the systemtc vew, nlyses the connotton of the logstcs system of mrketng chnnels, n nfluencng the logstcs rsk of mrketng chnnels re ncte. On ths se, systemtc ynmcs moel for the logstcs rsk of mrketng chnnels s constructe, n the smulte results s otne y Vensm PLE. The results show tht t s essentl for logstcs rsk mngement n mrketng chnnel to control supplers, mnufcturers n strutors own possle rsks n ecrese the outflow rte. Inex Terms system ynmcs, logstc rsk, mrketng chnnels I. INTRODUCTION In logstcs system of mrketng chnnels, the nternl n externl efects of the system my le to hzrs, whch mke t ffcult to cheve the est securty sttus of effcency, qulty, cost n tme. Ths s the logstcs rsk efne n ths pper. Logstcs system for enterprse or socety s very mportnt. There re mny uncertn cusng rsks n the logstcs system. Lke the logstcs servce prover, t s so ffcult to choose correct prover tht rngs out logstcs servce qulty rsks, so reference [1] propose n mprove FCM lgorthm to segment logstcs servce provers n orer to cheve customer segmentton properly. Informton s lso the key fctor nfluencng the logstcs effect, n reference [2] propose n ynmc rsk mngement moel for the nformton securty mngement n IC mnufcturng nustry, tht moel h een successfully pple to gue the nformton securty mngement prctces n IC mnufcturng compnes, n offers comprehensve n prctcl soluton. Reference [3] lso propose tht logstcs tsks hevly epene on relle shpment n ccurte trckng nformton, so t nvestgte how RFID technology ws mplemente n opte n Twn s logstcs nustry, mny compnes n Twn h ccepte n utlze ths technology. Logstcs system of mrketng chnnels, from the perspectve of the norml chnnel logstcs operton prctce, nclues the rsks of personnel, logstcs, fcltes / equpment, mngement n nformton. Bse on the prncple of est stsfcton of customer nees n the resonle shrng of cost, the logstcs n corporte mrketng chnnels, y fferent prtes to er, cn e ve nto propretry logstcs n corporte outsourcng logstcs (lso clle the thr prty logstcs ) whch re shown n Fgure 1. Logstcs Logstcs Supplers of rw mterls Mnufcturng enterprses Retl Wholeslers Customer Agents Thr prty logstcs Thr prty logstcs Fgure 1. Schemtc of Mrketng Chnnels for Logstcs Opertors Bse on ths perspectve, the types of logstcs rsk of mrketng chnnels cn e scusse from the followng two spects. A. Self-logstcs rsk of Mrketng Chnnels Self-logstcs s tht the logstc functons of mnufcturng enterprse re operte y the enterprse tself, not y thr prty logstc servce prover. The possle rsks n self-logstcs nclue: Rsk of loss of goo: The possle resons tht cuse ths rsk nclue the trnsportton lne selecte, trnsportton vehcles chose, trnsportton stff or o: /jsw

2 JOURNAL OF SOFTWARE, VOL. 8, NO. 5, MAY emergency events n the trnsportton process. It my lso cuse y the nonfesnce of the trnsportton erer. Due to the lmte resource tht n enterprse hs, not ll the logstc processes re operte y ths enterprse n sometme they rely on outsourcng. Accorng to the requrement of JIT, ely struton my le to gret economc losses for shppng enterprses. Rsk of crgo ely: The possle resons tht cuse ths rsk nclue the trnsportton lne selecte, trnsportton vehcles chose, trnsportton stff or emergency events n the trnsportton process. It my lso cuse y the nonfesnce of the trnsportton erer. Due to the lmte resource tht n enterprse hs, not ll the logstc processes re operte y ths enterprse n sometme they rely on outsourcng. Accorng to the requrement of JIT, ely struton my le to gret economc losses for shppng enterprses. Rsk of wrong goos elvere: Tht goos re sent wrongly s often ecuse the enterprse nformton system flure, or ecuse stff re creless for ther jos. Tht goos re sent wrongly s often ecuse the enterprse nformton system flure, or ecuse stff re creless for ther jos. Moern logstcs nee to rely on moern nformton technology n orer to ensure the effectve operton of system. The mportnt role of the nformton s s followng: shortene tme from recevng orers to elver goos; nventory mount; mprove hnlng n trnsportton effcency; mprove orer processng precson; prevent errors of elvery n struton; regultng the emn n supply. If the logstcs nformton system oes not work well, t my ncrese the rsks of struton ely, wrong struton n wrong shppng goos. B. The Outsourcng Rsk of Mrketng Chnnels Logstcs Mentone s reference [4][5][6][7][8][9], the outsourcng rsks of mrketng chnnels logstcs wll e ve nto the four types s the followng: The envronmentl rsk of outsourcng logstcs: Ths rsk mnly refers to the nustry envronment n enterprse envronment. Due to the mperfect logstcs nustry n the mmture logstcs mrket, t s ffcult to select the pproprte externl logstcs servce provers for enterprses. However, most enterprses re lck of knowlege of outsourcng logstcs, n ther purposes re fferent from the externl logstcs servce provers, these wll esly le to the conflct of unerstnng. Menwhle, the nternl operton processes wll e ffecte y the outsourcng logstcs, t even nees to e ntegrte gn, whch my cuse the nternl conflcts. Control rsk of outsourcng logstcs: The self-logstcs s prt of nternl operton processes for enterprse, uner the moel, enterprses rectly fce to the customers n re convenent to communcte wth customers. The externl logstcs servce provers re n uncontrolle outsourcng, wthout the chnce of communctng wth customers rectly for enterprses wll result n the overrelnce on these externl professonl logstcs compnes n logstcs servce, even n other spects. Thus, once enterprses cnnot select the pproprte logstcs servce provers ecuse of neffectve evluton system, t s not only the logstcs servce wll e ffecte, ut lso the corporton mge n mrket shre wll e mge. Moreover, cooperton s ffcult to estlsh n mntn the trust mechnsm whch wll ennger the cooperton reltonshp n le the logstcs out of control. Informton rsk of outsourcng logstcs: Informton symmetry n mrket s the prmry fctor to cuse the rsk of outsourcng logstcs. It s mpossle to gsp fully nformton of supplers, so t s ffcult to mke the selecton n montorng ecsons. Next, for outsourcng logstcs, lot of nformton nee to e shre wth servce provers, n lot of nformton s lso prove y logstcs servce provers, whch wll rng the ssue of nformton securty. Tht s to sy, the expnson of scope of nformton trnsfer n the logstcs servce provers sloylty wll result n the loss of nformton resources of enterprses, core technology n usness secrets. It s even lkely to e mtte n cught up y compettors n mkes the enterprses lose ther vntge of resources n core compettveness. Rsk of outsourcng cost: Ths rsk s cuse y the two followng spect: on the one hn, t s relte to the servce level of the servce provers. It wll reuce the cost rsk f the logstcs servce provers offer hgh qulty n low cost servce compre to enterprses. Conversely, the enterprses choose low effectve logstcs provers ecuse of lck of correct jugment, whch wll result n the cost rsk of outsourcng logstcs. On the other hn, ths cost rsk comes from the ncresng of converson mngement cost. The converson cost mens tht, the enterprses eng le to ssume the logstcs functon trnsfer the logstcs to the outsourcng logstcs servce provers, ths wll result n the ncresng of mngement cost whch nclues montorng costs, coornton costs n ntegrton costs. Goos loss rsk of outsourcng logstc: For outsourcng logstcs, such s rsks of loss of goos, ely of goos n wrong goos elvery lso exst, these rsks cn e regre s the goos loss rsk of outsourcng logstcs. II. PROPOSED METHODS The systemtc s n mportnt feture of logstcs ctvtes, n ts systemtc structure n functon s compose of vrety of susystems whch hve complex reltonshps mong vrous susystems. At the sme tme, logstcs pln s uncertnty. Logstcs ctvtes nclue trnsportton pln, storge pln, long n unlong pln, struton pln n equpment operton, n these ctvtes re chngele n the process of logstcs, so the ynmc s ther chrcters. The ynmc from the chnge of tme n spce s the feture of system ynmcs, so usng the metho to nlyze the mrketng chnnel logstcs wll

3 1196 JOURNAL OF SOFTWARE, VOL. 8, NO. 5, MAY 2013 help mngers estmte the ynmc chnge of the logstcs system n tme, tke mesures to enhnce the postve mpcts of vrous nternl n externl on logstcs operton n reuce the negtve mpcts of them, whch woul mke the chnnel logstcs ply etter effcency to cheve the gols of mrketng chnnel mngement.b. References Fgure 2. Rsk Fctors Impcts on Mrketng Chnnel Logstcs Further unerstnng (seeng Fgure 2), f the storge s set to the frst stte of controlle ynmc system, n ths stte, the my e consere s followng: 1 : Postve mpct of ojectve envronmentl 1 : Negtve mpct of ojectve envronmentl 1 : Postve mpct of nformton trnsfer 1 : Negtve mpct of nformton trnsfer c 1 : Postve mpct of Prtcpnts sujectve c 1 : Negtve mpct of Prtcpnts sujectve 1 Informton trnsfer Ojectve envronmentl Mrketng logstcs system Cret n ethcl Prtcpnts sujectve : Postve mpct of cret n ethcl 1 : Negtve mpct of cret n ethcl The tken mesures n the otne results n the frst stte wll e the secon stte of the controlle ynmc system. If the secon stte s the trnsportton, the effectve ssessment t of the secon stte s s followng: 2 : Postve mpct of ojectve envronmentl 2 : Negtve mpct of ojectve envronmentl 2 : Postve mpct of nformton trnsfer 2 : Negtve mpct of nformton trnsfer c 2 : Postve mpct of Prtcpnts sujectve c 2 : Negtve mpct of Prtcpnts sujectve 2 : Postve mpct of cret n ethcl 2 : Negtve mpct of cret n ethcl If the rsk of mrketng chnnel logstcs re controlle well, the results wll e otne s followng: 2 > 2 < 2 > 2 < c 2 > c c 2 < c 2 > 2 < 1. Therefore, n long-term vew of system, there woul > e 1 <, 1. Thus, when the tsk of mrketng chnnel logstcs s nerly fnshe, the negtve ffectng the system re close to zero, 0 nmely n ( n s the fnl lnk or the fnl functon n the mrketng chnnel logstcs ). The nlyss wll e enefcl to mnge n control rsk of mrketng chnnel logstcs III. RESEARCH METHOD The system ynmcs s to estlsh system ynmcs moel to reflect the structurl reltonshps mong vrles n system, n ynmclly smulte the process of system or some susystems. The funmentl purpose of the estlshment of system ynmcs moel s to solve the prolem exstng n the system, eepen unerstnng of the reltonshp etween feeck structure n ynmc ehvor wthn the system, so tht system ehvor cn e mprove. [10] Becuse of the nture of ynmc n feeck of mrketng chnnel logstcs, wth the contnuous mprovement of nternl n externl complexty of logstcs system network, the estlshment of ths system ynmcs moel for mrketng chnnel logstcs wll ply gret role on rsk ecson of mrketng chnnel logstcs. A. Fctors Anlyss of Logstcs System It s the frst step to efne the contne elements of mrketng chnnel logstcs when nlyzng the logstcs rsks. A system must exchnge mtters n nformton wth surrounng envronment, when efnng the ounry of system, stngushng the nternl elements n externl elements s necessry.

4 JOURNAL OF SOFTWARE, VOL. 8, NO. 5, MAY The system of mrketng chnnel logstcs, s complex n lrge system, nvolves n multple eprtments n lnks, n the ntercton of outse worl s lso mult-level, n nfluence y the of economy, mrket, socl envronment n resource struton. Therefore, ccorng to the composton of memers n rsk types of mrketng chnnel logstcs, elements of ths system nclue supplers, mnufcturers, strutors, customers n logstcs nustry envronmentl out of mrketng chnnel system. Logstcs rsks from supplers, mnufcturers n strutors re mnly referre to the qulty of logstcs opertons, goos loss quntty, goos loss rte, rsk control strength of enterprses, orer loss quntty n mpct on enterprse cret. When the logstcs nustry envronment s unstle n mmture, logstcs rsk wll e gret, n the qulty of logstcs opertons wll e ffecte, whch woul ncrese the logstcs rsk for enterprses n the mrketng chnnel; vrety of ncrese rsks wll rng the negtve mpct on the enterprse cret; the eclne of the enterprse cret wll le to orers reuce, whch wll ncrese the rsks of enterprses; ncrese rsks wll encourge enterprses to opt control mesures. Supplers, mnufcturers n strutors wll reuce rsks through ther own nternl logstcs rsk control mngement. Thus, the ounry of ths system s efne. B. Drwng of cusl grm Cusl grm shows the logc reltons mong fferent of the system. However, cusl grm only reflects the generl spects of the feeck structure of system n oes not tell the fference of vrous vrles. Thus, t s necessry to rw the process grm to sply the vrles propertes. By usng system ynmc softwre Vensm_PLE, the rsk cusl grm of chnnel logstcs s plotte, s shown n Fg. 3. 供 应 商 订 单 SOL 损 失 量 供 应 SC 商 信 誉 物 流 EFLI 行 业 环 境 供 SGL 应 商 货 供 应 商 货 损 率 损 量 SGLR 供 Outflow 应 商 货 损 流 rte 出 率 of 供 SLQ 应 商 物 流 作 业 质 量 供 SRCII 应 商 风 险 控 制 强 度 系 数 制 造 商 订 单 MOL 损 失 量 制 MGL 造 商 货 制 造 商 货 损 率 损 量 MGLR 调 TA 整 时 间 制 造 MC 商 信 誉 制 MLQ 造 商 物 流 制 MRCII 造 商 风 险 控 作 业 质 量 制 强 度 系 数 分 DOL 销 商 订 单 损 失 量 分 销 DGLR 商 货 损 率 分 销 DH 商 信 誉 分 DLQ 销 商 物 流 作 业 质 量 分 DGL 销 商 货 损 量 分 销 DRCII 商 风 险 控 制 强 度 系 数 SOL-Suppler s orer loss EFLI-Envronment of logstcs nustry ORFDGL 分 销 商 货 损 流 出 率 顾 CGLR 客 货 损 率 顾 客 CGL 货 损 量 Fgure 3. Mrketng Chnnel Logstcs Rsk Cusl Dgrm 制 ORF 造 商 货 损 MGL 流 出 率 SC-Suppler s cret SGL-Suppler s goos loss SGLR-Suppler s goos loss rte ORFSGL-Outflow rte of Suppler s goos loss SLQ-Suppler s logstcs qulty SRCII-Suppler s rsk control ntensty nex MOL-Mnufcturer s orer loss MGLR-Mnufcturer s goos loss rte MGL-Mnufcturer s goos loss ORFMGL-Outflow rte of mnufcturer s goos loss MLQ-Mnufcture s logstc qulty MRCII-Mnufcturer s rsk control ntensty nex MC-Mnufcturer s cret DGL-Dstrutor s goos loss DGLR-Dstrutor s goos loss rte ORFDGL-Outflow rte of strutor s goos loss DRCII-Dstrutor s rsk control ntensty nex DH-Dstrutor s honor DLQ-Dstrutor s logstcs qulty CGLR-Costumer s goos loss rte CGL-Costumer s goos loss As fr s the logstcs system of mrketng chnnel s concerne, the logstc qulty s ffecte y the envronment of logstcs nustry n the rsk control ntensty of the enterprse. Logstcs qulty ovously ffects goos loss rte, whch etermnes goos loss quntty. Goos loss quntty nfluences rsk control ntensty, whch n turn ffects outflow rte of goos loss n logstcs qulty. IV. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION The process grm rew se on cusl nlyss only shows the logc reltonshps of vrous system n oes not revel the system structure quntttvely. Therefore, t s necessry to construct the system ynmcs equtons on the prctcl ss to smulte the system ynmc ehvors. Bse on the prctcl experence, ccorng to Fg. 3, the system ynmc equtons re constructe elow. (1)FINAL TIME = 100, Unts: Month (The fnl tme for the smulton); (2)INITIAL TIME = 0, Unts: Month (The ntl tme for the smulton); (3)SAVEPER = TIME STEP, Unts: Month (The frequency wth whch output s store); (4)TIME STEP = 1, Unts: Month (The tme step for the smulton); (5)Suppler s cret = EXP (-outflow of suppler s goos loss), unt: mensonless; (6)Suppler s logstcs qulty = Suppler s rsk control ntensty nex* logstcs nustry envronment, Unts: mensonless; (7)Suppler s orer loss = (1-suppler s cret)*100, Unts: pece; (8)Outflow rte of suppler s goos loss= (1-suppler s rsk control ntensty nex)*suppler s goos loss/justment tme, Unts: pece/month;

5 1198 JOURNAL OF SOFTWARE, VOL. 8, NO. 5, MAY 2013 (9)Suppler s goos loss rte = (suppler s orer loss100*(1-suppler s logstcs qulty))/justment tme, Unts: pece/month; (10)Suppler s goos loss = INTEG (suppler s goos loss rte outflow rte of suppler s goos loss, 0), Unts: pece; (11)Suppler s rsk control ntensty nex=1-exp (- suppler s goos loss/100), Unts: mensonless; (12)Dstrutor s cret = EXP (-outflow rte of strutor s goos loss),unts: mensonless; (13)Dstrutor s logstcs qulty=strutor s rsk control ntensty nex* logstcs nustry envronment, Unts: mensonless; (14)Dstrutor s orer loss= (1-strutor s cret)*100, Unts: pece ; (15)Outflow rte of strutor s goos loss= (1- strutor s rsk control ntensty nex)*strutor s goos loss/justment tme, Unts: pece/month; (16)Dstrutor s goos loss rte= (strutor s orer loss outflow rte of mnufcturer s goos loss100*(1- strutor s logstcs qulty))/justment tme, Unts: pece/month; (17)Dstrutor s goos loss= INTEG (strutor s goos loss rte outflow rte of strutor s goos loss, 0), Unts: pece; (18)Dstrutor s rsk control ntensty nex=1-exp (- strutor s goos loss/100), Unts: mensonless; (19)Mnufcturer s cret =EXP (-outflow rte of mnufcturer s goos loss), Unts: mensonless; (20)Mnufcturer s logstcs qulty=mnufcturer s rsk control ntensty nex* logstcs nustry envronment, Unts: mensonless; (21)Mnufcturer s orer loss= (1-mnufcturer s cret)*100, Unts: pece; (22)Outflow rte of mnufcturer s goos loss= (1- Outflow rte of mnufcturer s goos loss)*mnufcturer s goos loss/justment tme, Unts: pece/month; (23)Mnufcturer s goos loss rte= (outflow rte suppler s goos loss mnufcturer s orer loss (1- Mnufcturer s logstcs qulty)*100)/ justment tme, Unts: pece/month; (24)Mnufcturer s goos loss = INTEG ( Mnufcturer s goos loss rte - Outflow rte of mnufcturer s goos loss, 0), Unts: pece; (25)Outflow rte of mnufcturer s goos loss =1-EXP (-Mnufcturer s goos loss /100), Unts: mensonless; (26)Logstcs nustry envronment =0.5, Unts: mensonless; (27)Ajustment tme=1, Unts: month; (28)Customer s goos loss rte= (outflow rte of strutor s goos loss outflow rte of mnufcture s goos loss)/ justment tme, Unts: pece/month; (29)Customer s goos loss = INTEG (Customer s goos loss rte, 0), Unts: pece. By usng Vensm_PLE, smulton results of ove equton hve een otne. Followng re mnufcturer s vrous sttus smulton results, emonstrtng the system nternl chrcterstcs from fferent spects. The results show tht wth the ncrese of goos loss (Fg. 4), mnufcturer ncrese the rsk control ntensty nex (Fg. 5) n enhnce logstcs qulty (Fg. 6), mntn the system t ts optml sttus. Due to the tme ely of tken mesures, mnufcturer s goos loss rte ncreses (Fg. 7). But wth tme, ue to the ncrese of control ntensty nex, goos loss rte ecreses n fnlly pproches stle sttus, whch les to the chnges of outflow rte of goos loss corresponngly, rechng t zero eventully. Fgure 4. Dynmcs of mnufcturer s logstcs goos loss Fgure 5. Dynmcs of mnufcturer s rsk control ntensty nex Fgure 6. Dynmcs of mnufcturer s logstcs qulty

6 JOURNAL OF SOFTWARE, VOL. 8, NO. 5, MAY Fgure 7. Dynmcs of mnufcturer s goos loss rte Fgure 10. Dynmcs of outflow of mnufcturer s goos loss uner vrous nustrl envronments Fgure 8. Dynmcs of outflow rte of mnufcturer s goos loss Fgure 11. Dynmcs of mnufcturer s goos loss rte uner vrous nustrl envronments Fgure 9. Dynmcs of mnufcturer s logstcs qulty uner vrous nustrl envronments Through smultng the nternl structure of the system, t cn e seen tht n orer to control the ynmcs of logstcs rsk n the mrketng chnnel, t s essentl for suppler, mnufcturer n strutor to control ther own possle rsks n ecrese the outflow rte. By ecresng the rsk loss n rsk outflow, the enterprse s cret s kept n orers re plce, formng vrtuous cycle. Menwhle, the envronment of logstcs nustry s n externl fctor, whch s ffcult for n enterprse to control. Uner fferent logstcs nustry envronment, the cuse n the loss of logstcs rsk re fferent. Generlly (s shown n Fgs. 9-11), s the nustrl envronment gettng etter, mnufcturer s logstcs qulty ncreses, goos loss n outflow rte of goos loss ecrese, thus lower the chnnel rsk. Therefore, enterprse shoul not only hope the supports n mprovements from government n commssons, ut lso correct ther own ehvors, whch wll promote the nustry to thrve n vrtuous cycle.

7 1200 JOURNAL OF SOFTWARE, VOL. 8, NO. 5, MAY 2013 V. CONCLUSIONS A complex mrketng chnnel system etermnes the complexty of the logstcs system, whch rngs ts vulnerlty n trggers hgh-rsk, n the hgh rsk n vulnerlty n prctce wll ncrese n e no less. So the pper ntrouce goo metho for enterprse s mngers to n tmely ssess the postve mpct of efforts to mprove the logstcs operton system n to reuce the negtve mpct y supervsng the ynmc chnges from supplers, strutors, n governments, thus, the ojectves of the mrketng chnnel mngement woul e eser cheve y the etter ply of the chnnels logstcs effcency. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Ths work ws fnnclly supporte y the Ntonl Nturl Scence Founton(NO: ); Ntonl Nturl Scence Founton (NO:20091j0068); Humntes n Socl Scences Fun from Mnstry of Eucton (NO:12yjczh150); Self-etermne n nnovtve reserch funs of WUT (NO: 2012-I-015); Humntes n Socl Scences Fun of Hue Provnce (NO: 2011LJ059); Socl Scence Fun of Wuhn Cty (NO: 20112s0106). REFERENCES [1] Toyng L. Yn Chen. Jnsong Zhng. Logstcs Servce Prover Segmentton Bse on Improve FCM Clusterng for Mxe Dt, Journl of Computers, No 11 (2012), [2] Wehu D. Q Zhu. Chunsh Wng, Yujo Zeng. Rsk Mngement Moel of Informton Securty n IC Mnufcturng Inustry, Journl of Computers, No 2 (2012): [3] Yu-Bng Wng. Kun-Yu Ln. Lly Chng. Json C. Hung. A Dffuson of Innovtons Approch to Investgte the RFID Aopton n Twn Logstcs Inustry, Journl of Computers, No 3 (2011), [4] Shpng Zhu, Logstcl Outsourcng Rsk n Benefts Anlyss uner Logstc Chn Envronment. Economc Theory n Busness Mngement, 2006, V (4): 70-72(In Chnese) [5] Lnhu Lu n Jnqng Wng, Rsk Anlyss n Protecton of Busness Logstcs Outsourcng of Busness s Logstcl Outsourcng. Journl of Hunn Insttute of Engneerng, 2005, (15)4: (In Chnese) [6] Yuln Xe, Reverse logstcs outsourcng rsks n countermesures [J], Integrte Trnsport, (In Chnese) [7] Mcvor, R., How the trnscton cost n resourcese theores of the frm nform outsourcng evluton. Journl of Opertons Mngement 27, [8] Wlng, R., Juro, R., Customer perceptons on logstcs outsourcng n the Europen consumer goos nustry. Interntonl Journl [9] Ts, M.C., Lo, C.H., Hn, C.S., Rsk percepton on logstcs outsourcng of retl chns: moel evelopment n emprcl verfcton n Twn. Supply Chn Mngement: An Interntonl Journl 13, [10] Lnln He, Supply Chn Mngement Bse on System Dynmcs. Mrket Moernzton, 2006, 2: (In Chnese) [11] L. Tsourgnns, J. Eson, M. Wrren, Fctors ffectng the mrketng chnnel choce of sheep n got frmers n the regon of est Mceonn Greece regrng the struton of ther mlk proucton, Smll Rumnnt Reserch, Septemer 2008,87-97 [12] Ellot Rnovch, A. Mchel Knemeyer, Ch M. Myer, Why, Journl of Opertons Mngement 25, Aprl 2007,