1 SIMON GERGEL POLITICIANS ARE TURNING INVESTORS OFF The Forum, Page 20 BUSINESS WITH PERSONALITY KARREN BRADY The First Lady of Football on championing small firms See Pages ONE DAY MILES. 36,000 HEROES EVERY RUN S A WINNER See Capitalist P14, Travel P26-27 & Sport P30 ISSUE 2,107 KIEV STRIKES BACK IN EAST UKRAINE BY KATE McCANN A UK foreign office spokesman also condemned the violence, adding: THE UKRAINIAN government has launched a full-scale anti-terrorist operation in the country, after pro- Russian forces moved into half a dozen towns in eastern Ukraine. The town of Slaviansk saw a reported gun battle yesterday, with at least one Ukrainian soldier and one pro-russian fighter killed in the violent clashes. Others were said to have been injured in the fighting after separatist forces in masks with machine guns moved into the town and took over the police station and other government buildings. The towns of Kramatorsk and The latest occupations by armed groups of government buildings in towns in eastern Ukraine are a further dangerous escalation of an already dangerous situation. Assumptions that Russia is complicit are inevitable as long as Moscow does not publicly distance itself from these latest lawless actions. Russia must desist from steps which destabilise Ukraine and undermine the possibility of Contact Group talks. European foreign ministers will meet today to discuss next steps, the spokesman added. Both the US and UK governments have indicated their willingness to Druzhkovka are also said to have been Armed pro-russian supporters carry an Orthodox icon in Lugansk, eastern Ukraine step up sanctions on Russia if taken over by militant forces. President Putin refuses to deescalate Interim interior minister Arsen Avakov warned people in Slaviansk to stay indoors, adding: The separatists are shooting to kill without warning Turchinov accused Russia of trying to take areas of Ukraine s east, following the annexation of Crimea last month. Russia denies it is behind the attacks. grave development, referring to the reappearance of men with specialised Russian weapons and identical uniforms without insignia, as the violence in Ukraine. On Friday the chancellor George Osborne warned the City to prepare for market volatility after signalling against the approaching special Nato s secretary general Anders previously worn by Russian troops that he is prepared to bear the economic forces. Fogh Rasmussen described the arrival during Russia s illegal and price of further sanctions. Acting president Oleksander of pro-russian forces in the region as a illegitimate seizure of Crimea. THE DEBATE: Page 21 s s World s biggest fund manager warns UK firms BY MICHAEL BOW FREE LARRY Fink, the founder and boss of BlackRock which controls $4 trillion ( 2.4 trillion) has urged UK firms on the fund manager s books to invest in capital expenditure to boost long-term growth. Fink, who founded the fund management behemoth in 1988, has written an open letter to FTSE-listed businesses that BlackRock invests in urging them not to pursue costly short-term share buybacks at the expense of capex. It concerns us that, in the wake of the financial crisis, many companies have shied away from investing in the future growth of their companies, Fink says in the letter, seen by City A.M.. Too many companies have cut capital expenditure and even increased debt to boost dividends and increase share buybacks. The move follows a similar campaign in the US urging S&P 500 CEOs not to make short term dividends a priority over long term strategic goals. We want to encourage corporate leaders to position their companies to attract the patient capital they seek and counter short-term pressures, BlackRock said in a statement last night. Average London house price to top 700,000 by 2020 BY MARION DAKERS LONDON house prices are set to rise 54 per cent over the next six years, leaving the rest of the UK s property market even further behind, new research claims. A typical home in the capital will be worth more than 700,000 in 2020, according to the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR). This rapid rise compares to a forecasted 28 per cent increase to 307,000 in the country as a whole over the rest of the decade. The figures come a week after the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors predicted a 35 per cent rise in British property prices by While prices will pause for breath when the Bank of England raises rates at some point in the next few years, the effect will be temporary. The city s chronic shortage of housing, international investor appetite and an economy that is significantly more insulated from potential public spending cuts than most other regions will drive prices further still, the think tank reckons. CEBR thinks the average UK house price will rise 6.4 per cent to 241,000 this year, the fastest rise since London properties are expected to increase 13.8 per cent and break the half a million pound mark some time in Halifax said at the weekend that homeowners across the UK are becoming more confident about putting their property on the market a net balance of 24 per cent believe the next 12 months will be a good time to sell. FTSE 100 6, DOW 16, NASDAQ 3, /$ / /$s Certified Distribution from 27/01/2014 until 23/02/2014 is 118,441
2 2 To contact the newsdesk NEWS The recovery is being driven by a revolution in the jobs market O N the face of it at least, all is going swimmingly well for the British economy. The best news continues to be on jobs, but GDP is also powering ahead, pay is growing on some measures and falling far less rapidly on others, and a more confident attitude is becoming increasingly entrenched across British boardrooms. While the outlook is especially strong in London as the latest regional purchasing managers figures from Lloyds demonstrate the recovery has spread across the country. To top it all, the Office for National Statistics is about to change the way it accounts for economic output, a move that is expected to increase the official size of the economy by up to five per cent. Our productivity, GDP growth, savings rate and the rest will all go up nothing real will have changed, of course, but it is bound to add to the Britain one of best at cutting tax for workers BY TIM WALLACE BRITAIN is cutting income taxes faster than almost any other advanced nation, figures from the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) showed over the weekend. Tax rates in the UK fell by 0.6 percentage points in , the third-largest cut across the 34 countries studied. The only bigger falls in income taxes came in Greece, where the rate fell by 0.79 percentage points, and the Netherlands where the rate fell 0.91 percentage points. By contrast, 20 countries hiked their tax rates in the year. The biggest jump came in Portugal, with a 3.54 percentage point rise. France increased its income tax burden by 0.39 percentage points and Germany hiked its by 0.12 percentage points. The figures came out as the OECD s head Angel Gurria praised Britain s flexible labour market. When you talk about flexible labour markets, it is often confused with the fact that you just want to lower the cost of hiring and firing, Gurria told the Sunday Telegraph. Of course its part of the consequences, but if you do not have this, what happens is that you do not have more employment. EDITOR S LETTER ALLISTER HEATH strengthening sense of optimism. The extraordinary performance of the labour market is certainly one of the parts of the story that is undeniably robust. Michael Saunders of Citigroup has analysed the numbers. The official statistics reveal that UK jobs growth reached 1.5 per cent year on year in the fourth quarter of 2013, the strongest performer of all of the G7 economies and twice the 0.6 per cent average seen across the Group of Seven richest nations. This was not just a one-off perform- ance. A year earlier, UK job growth was already more than twice as strong as in the rest of the G7. Britain s jobs growth in the fourth quarter of 2012 had hit 2.1 per cent year on year, once again the best performer among the seven richest nations, which together recorded a jobs growth rate of just one per cent at the time. Total employment in Britain is up by a remarkable 3.5 per cent over the last eight quarters, the Citigroup research estimates, the biggest gain since , at the height of the unsustainable Lawson boom. Assuming that the GDP figures for late 2012 and 2013 in particular aren t revised up so severely as to render them entirely unrecognisable, this is a first for the UK. In the past, very strong jobs growth was always caused by very strong economic growth. This time around, the resurgence in employment started well before the growth returned. It is not just that more people are working they are also spending longer in the office or on the shop floor, confirming that the health of the labour market has genuinely improved. The total number of hours worked rocketed by 4.7 per cent over the last eight quarters, the fastest rate of growth of the past 40 years apart from, once again, the mad years of All of this, of course, has taken place at the same time as the government has continued to cut public sector jobs more than all of the increase has thus been accounted for by the private sector. The UK labour market was at its most deregulated in the mid 1990s; since then, the amount of red tape has once again increased significantly. But changing attitudes trumped the regulatory framework, and the workforce has become unexpectedly agile. This is clearly a golden age for entrepreneur- London leading Britain s GDP growth comeback BY TIM WALLACE EVERY region in the UK is growing strongly, with London the driving force, an influential survey published by Lloyds shows today. Sustained growth across the country is driven by rising demand as consumers order more output from businesses. And as a result, the study found firms are hiring more staff which should in turn support the burgeoning economic recovery. The capital is the fastest growing region in England, the study shows, with only Wales across the rest of the UK growing more quickly. London s purchasing managers score (PMI) held steady at 59.5 a strong result, as any score of above 50 indicates growth. Wales score jumped from 59.2 in February to 60.5 in March, its strongest result in 13 years. However, the south east s growth slowed down in the month its PMI dipped from 60 to 58. The lowest growth came in the north west. The region s PMI score dipped from 57 in February to 56.1 in March, indicating a slowdown in the area s growth. That matched the country overall, as the UK s PMI score slid from 58.2 to LONDON IS LEADING THE RECOVERY KEY: PMI OF ABOVE 50 = Growth Red = Growth Slowing Green = Growth Accelerating Orange = Growth Holding Steady SCOTLAND 56.4 UP FROM 56.2 NORTH EAST 56.6 NORTHERN IRELAND 56.6 DOWN FROM 58.1 NORTH WEST 56.1 DOWN FROM 57 YORKSHIRE 55.8 DOWN FROM 58.1 EAST MIDLANDS 58.2 WEST MIDLANDS 58.2 DOWN FROM 62.2 WALES 60.5 UP FROM 55.7 EAST ENGLAND 58.2 UP FROM 58.1 UP FROM 59.2 SOUTH WEST 58.8 DOWN FROM 59 Despite the slowdown, economists stressed a score of 57.6 still represents strong growth. A strong rise in new orders and lower input costs appears to be supporting job creation and investment SOUTH EAST 58 LONDON 59.5 DOWN FROM 60 in the private sector, said Tim Hinton from Lloyds Banking Group. This ongoing trend is helping build capacity and, in turn, hopefully contributing to further growth. ship, especially in London, but there is more to it than that. Self-employment surged 17 per cent over the past five years and is still rising; while at first the increase was made up of people who preferred to work as consultants rather than being forced to sign on to the dole, many of the more recent entrants appear happy with the choice. Self-employment jumped 6.8 per cent year on year in the last three months; as the Citigroup research points outs, this accounted for over half of the rise in total employment. Two thirds of the increase was accounted for by people aged In the past, recoveries in the labour market were driven by increased demand for workers; today, it is just as much a case of a better, more flexible and more entrepreneurial supply creating its own demand. Follow me on Lagarde mulls ending central bank freedom BY TIM WALLACE CENTRAL banks are gaining so many new powers that it is time to consider ending their independence from government control, International Monetary Fund (IMF) boss Christine Lagarde indicated yesterday. This would represent a major shift in central banking, which has been given credibility by its freedom from politicians since in the UK s case However, since the financial crisis, authorities like the Bank of England have been given major new powers for financial stability, on top of their previous jobs of controlling inflation. As a result, Lagarde questioned whether this situation can continue. We must look ahead [and] shed some light on what the new world of central banking might look like once the world returns to more normal conditions, she told a conference in Washington DC. Can (or should) central banks remain fully independent despite a wider mandate? Christine Lagarde hinted at independent central banks WHAT THE OTHER PAPERS SAY THIS MORNING UK watchdog targets bankers Wayward UK bankers risk increasingly large fines as the amount of individual penalties levied by the country s financial watchdog has increased 76 per cent over the past two years. The Financial Conduct Authority and its predecessor meted out fines totalling 35.5m on individuals in 2012 and 2013, compared with 20.1m in 2010 and 2011, while it also imposed more lifetime bans, barring 72 people in 2013 from working in financial services, compared with 66 in Facebook targets financial services Not content with being just a platform to host cat photos and status updates, Facebook is readying itself to provide financial services in the form of remittances and electronic money. The social network is only weeks away from obtaining regulatory approval in Ireland for a service that would allow its users to store money on Facebook and use it to pay and exchange money with others, according to several people involved in the process. WHO plans to regulate e-cigarettes Electronic cigarette users are set to be banished to the pavement alongside their tobaccosmoking cousins and face similar hefty prices if the World Health Organisation pushes ahead with plans to regulate e-cigarettes in the same way as normal tobacco, according to leaked documents seen by the Financial Times. Osborne paves way for early tax cuts George Osborne will set out proposals today to allow Conservative governments to deliver tax cuts even while borrowing is at high levels. By highlighting the beneficial impact of tax cuts on growth, the chancellor will make clear that there may be more scope than has so far been indicated to reduce the burden of taxation early in the next Parliament. He will publish a Treasury analysis suggesting that cancelling planned rises in petrol duty would boost GDP by up to half of one per cent over 20 years almost 7.5 bn at today s prices. He is challenging orthodoxy under which officials have refused to recognise that cutting taxes can boost the economy. Clegg wants garden cities in South Spanish banks push own properties Three new garden cities will be built in the arc of prosperity on countryside between Oxford and Cambridge under Liberal Democrat plans. Nick Clegg, the Deputy Prime Minister, will today publish a long-awaited prospectus which he describes as a call to arms for a new generation of garden cities. Spanish banks have about 100bn of repossessed real-estate properties on their books, according to Moody s Investors Service, and are eager to offer deals to accelerate foreclosure sales as they prepare for this year s balance-sheet review by European Union regulators. Edrington raises a glass to US growth Scotch whisky producer Edrington, owner of The Macallan and The Famous Grouse brands, is preparing to launch its own US business next month as Americans thirst for a wee dram shows no signs of abating. Wal-Mart cries foul on China fines Fined by China for misleading pricing and selling poor-quality products, Wal-Mart has paid fines and has ratcheted up its testing and inspections, but it is also telling Chinese authorities they need to clean up their own act.
3 cityam.com DRAGHI COULD PRINT MONEY TO PROP UP EURO NEWS Wages to overtake prices this year as squeeze on Brits eases 3 BY TIM WALLACE PAY WILL finally rise faster than inflation this year, at last ending the long squeeze on British incomes, an influential group of economists has predicted today. Wages will rise by 1.7 per cent over the year while prices will increase by 1.6 per cent, the EY Item Club forecasts. As a result the UK s economic recovery should get a further boost, as households feel more confident and have more money to spend. Until now the recovery has been financed by a fall in the amount households save, but it appears to be moving to a firmer footing, said the group s Peter Spencer. The consumer upturn will be given a boost from real wages and rising employment, while investment is finally kicking in. Low inflation and steady growth should also mean the Bank of England will not need to increase interest rates until after the next election, he forecasts. The economists also think the housing market will not get out of hand, despite the low rates. Tougher new mortgage lending criteria come into force this month, which may keep a cap on borrowing. EY s Item Club predicts house price growth of 7.4 per cent this year, 7.2 per cent in 2015, slowing to 4.2 per cent in THE European Central Bank will ease monetary policy further if the euro keeps strengthening, President Mario Draghi said over the weekend as world finance chiefs ramped up pressure on Europe to ward off deflation. The strengthening of the exchange rate would require further monetary policy accommodation, he said. Companies turn away from tax avoidance plans iphone 5s. Love it. Cherish it. We ll protect it. BY MARION DAKERS THE TAXMAN suspects Britain s biggest companies of underpaying taxes to the tune of 18.8bn in the last year, though this figure is down 12 per cent on the previous year in a sign that firms are being less aggressive with their financial planning. Figures from HM Revenue & Customs show that suspected underpayments or tax under consideration have fallen by a quarter in the past two years. Single interest groups find this hard to acknowledge but big listed companies are now very rigorous about adhering to the principle of good corporate citizenship. They don t want to alienate their customers by underpaying tax, said Jason Collins, head of tax for law firm Pinsent Masons, which published the HMRC figures based on the obligations of 770 large companies. The numbers show that 2.6bn of the tax that HMRC feels may have been underpaid is part of explicit avoidance schemes. The exchequer normally finds that around half of tax under consideration is due after further investigation. British firms paid 39.5bn in corporation tax in , down six per cent on the previous year due to a fall in North Sea energy levies but up 35 per cent on a decade ago. Total tax contributions from large UK firms rose 1bn to 78bn in 2013, according to accountancy group PwC. The figures come as chancellor George Osborne looks to impose tougher punishments on individuals who fail to declare money held offshore, even if they do not intend to evade tax. The vast majority of wealthy people pay their taxes and their share of tax income has been going up. HMRC believes it has been difficult getting the outright tax evader, Osborne told journalists at the IMF spring conference in Washington at the weekend. Phil Berwick, head of contentious tax at law firm Irwin Mitchell, warned that removing the need to prove people intended to evade tax payments means HMRC might focus on soft targets, and hardcore evaders will still evade capture or punishment. Glencore sells Peruvian copper project Las Bambas for 3.7bn BY SUZIE NEUWIRTH GLENCORE Xstrata yesterday confirmed the long-awaited sale of its Peruvian copper mine Las Bambas to a consortium for $6.25bn ( 3.73bn), as demanded by the Chinese antitrust regulator last year in return for merger approval. China Minmetals-backed Australian resource company MMG owns a 62.5 per cent stake in the consortium, with Chinese firms Guoxin International Investment and Citic Metal holding the remainder. The FTSE 100-listed miner-trader said buyers would pay around $400m for costs incurred in developing Las Bambas since the start of the year, on top of the $5.85bn deal value. BMO Capital Markets and Credit Suisse are advising Glencore. Our tariffs come with insurance included at no extra cost, exclusively for Virgin Media customers. We use EE, the UK s biggest network. virginmedia.com Pop in store Legal Stuff: 24-month contract. Credit check and payment by Direct Debit required. If you cancel during the contract you will incur an early disconnection fee. Phones subject to availability. Pay Monthly service terms apply. See virginmobile.co.uk or call for details. Our insurance is administered by Asurion Europe Limited, who are authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (no ), registered address: Chiswick Place, 272 Gunnersbury Avenue, Chiswick W4 5QB. The insurer is Liberty Mutual Insurance Europe Limited, who are authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (no ) and the Prudential Regulation Authority, registered address: Third Floor, 2 Minster Court, London EC3R 7YE. Terms and conditions and insurance excess apply, see virginmobile.co.uk/insurance for details.
5 cityam.com NEWS Britain is proving ready for Asia s century IT S a welcome reminder of Britain s world-class commercial creativity. Two firms whose brands we might think of only as local icons, House of Fraser and Cath Kidston, are attracting fierce interest from Asian buyers. In the case of House of Fraser, the deal is done, China s San Power now has an 89 per cent stake and plans are already afoot to roll its stores out in China. Beyond the UK and Ireland, House of Fraser has one store at present: in Abu Dhabi s World Trade Center mall. The new deal sensibly recognises that its retail offering has far wider potential than just as a local brand. For Cath Kidston, that s long been BOTTOM LINE MARC SIDWELL clear. There are other names still in contention, so the brand s floral chic may not end up being bought by Japan s Uniqlo, but there s no doubt the match would make sense. Cath Kidston s first non-uk branch opened eight years ago in Tokyo. Today its goods are available in 33 Japanese shops, plus five outlet stores accounting for about a third of its non-uk stores and concessions, which in total outnumber those in the UK nearly two to one. That s as it should be. Britain is an island with an imagination larger than its modest borders. If we are to thrive in the coming Asian century, we must celebrate when our homegrown business models prove popular on the Pacific Rim. According to EY, Asia s middle class is 525m strong: larger than the EU population. In 20 years, 3bn more people will join the middle class, mainly in Asia. As it happens, Britain has a great contribution to make. 5 Cath Kidston Limited was founded by its namesake, designer Cath Kidston Uniqlo owner in talks to buy out Cath Kidston BY MICHAEL BOW THE OWNER of high street fashion chain Uniqlo is leading a pack of suitors hoping to take control of UK homeware company Cath Kidston. Japanese company Fast Retailing, which is listed in Hong Kong and Tokyo, has approached Cath Kidston s private equity backers TA Associates about acquiring its 65 per cent controlling stake in the company. L Capital, a private equity firm backed by Louis Vuitton-owner LVMH, has also held discussions with TA and its bankers from UBS, who have been appointed to handle the sale, about buying TA s stake. The company have been talking to both of them but whether a sale is concluded or not remains to be seen, a source said. Uniqlo, Fast Retailing s main subsidiary, has a UK presence but is isolated to London and the south east only, with nine stores in London and one at the Bluewater Shopping Centre in Kent. The Cath Kidston company is owned by TA and its founder and namesake designer Cath Kidston and City jobseekers out in force as confidence in market booms BY TIM WALLACE THE NUMBER of City workers looking for a new job has almost doubled since last year, rocketing 92 per cent, new figures show today. Recruiter Morgan McKinley now has 9,373 jobseekers on its books, a huge increase from the 4,884 it had a year ago. However, over the same period the number of vacancies has risen only two per cent to 9,261. management, who own 23 per cent and 12 per cent of the firm respectively. If the company is sold, both Kidston and management are expected to maintain their minority stakes in the business. TA, which also owns online mail order retailer M and M Direct in the UK, bought a stake in Cath Kidston in 2010 and helped it expand in Asia, where it currently has a large presence in Japan and a smaller footprint in Korea, Thailand and Hong Kong. All parties declined to comment. The talks come amid a buoyant time for Asian takeovers of British high street names. House of Fraser formally announced it had been taken over by a subsidiary of Chinese conglomerate San Power on Saturday in a deal valuing the company at 480m. San Power, which through its subsidiary Nanjing Xinjiekou Department Store Co has bought 89 per cent of House of Fraser, is now plotting a big expansion in its native China, with plans for around 20 new stores. At the same time, hiring firms have found a skills shortage in some areas, which is driving up salaries. A 20 per cent rise in average salaries shows we are in a buyers market with clients looking to offer above market basic salaries to incentivise candidates to join their business opposed to a competitor, said Morgan McKinley operations director Hakan Enver.
6 6 NEWS cityam.com Co-op Group braced for new round of losses BY TIM WALLACE THE CO-OPERATIVE Group is set to follow its bank into multi-billion pound losses when it reports its finances later this week. The troubled retail, pharmacy and funerals group is expected to have lost up to 2.5bn in the last year, during which it has lost its chief executive, Euan Sutherland, who quit over a row with the board. He called the firm ungovernable as a result. The latest set of figures come after a dire year for the Co-op Bank, which discovered a capital hole of 1.5bn last summer and another gap of 400m this year. As a result the Group lost its 100 per cent control of the bank, and now owns 30 per cent of the lender. The bank reported losses of 1.3m for 2013 on Friday, and warned it does not expect to make a profit this year or next year. The Group s losses are expected to contribute to a tumultuous annual general meeting next month, where key moments are expected to include bosses pay at the mutual. The democratic structure of the group will also be up for debate as Lord Myners, who quit the board last week, nears the end of his review into the structure of the company. Members will vote on his recommendations, which aims to modernise the historic structure and make the firm s governance more suited to a major conglomerate. Some board members dislike Lord Myners review The government recently stopped Kongouro, by George Stubbs, from leaving the country UK art exports hit five-year high as investors opt for trophy assets BY JENNY FORSYTH THE value of art exported from the UK has risen to 10.5bn, its highest level in five years, as wealthy buyers increasingly choose to invest. The surge cements London s status as the leading marketplace for art, according to a report today from Thomson Reuters. Figures show the total value of artworks and cultural items leaving the UK rose by seven per cent to 10.5bn in the financial year, up from 9.8bn a year earlier. This was despite a dip in the value of art exported from the UK under its export licensing system from 1.97bn in to 1.67bn last year. Art that may be culturally significant to the UK because it has been here more than 50 years has to go through a review process before it can be exported. Just 11.2m worth of art was refused an export licence in 2013 including the famous Kongouro painting by George Stubbs and a ring once owned by Jane Austen that singer Kelly Clarkson wanted to buy. Advice black hole looms for UK pensioners BY KATE McCANN THOSE APPROACHING retirement could face an advice black hole according to a new report by PwC. Under changes announced by the chancellor in his Budget last month, people about to retire will no longer be forced to buy an annuity product, opening up a range of other options. But a new study by PwC claims that consumers may be left to fend for themselves without the advice they need if the government does not provide the service. Sixty-three per cent of consumers have or intend to ask for financial advice from an independent financial advisor on how they will access their pension pot, said Jonathan Howe of PwC. However, many consumers may not have a big enough pension pot to justify significant advice fees. What we will see is an advice black hole a supply gap between what consumers want and what they can get. The report also found that the annuities market in the UK could shrink by up to 75 per cent as a result of George Osborne s changes, with just 16 per cent of people polled saying they would buy an annuity in retirement.
7 cityam.com AMAZON PREPARING TO PUSH INTO YOUR POCKET NEWS Tech stocks braced for sell-off as US results set to disappoint 7 BY OLIVER SMITH TECH stocks could be in for another hammering this week as nearly a tenth of the companies in the S&P 500 prepare to report what is expected to be the weakest quarter of profit growth since Analysts warn that last week s dramatic sell off of tech, biotech and online retails stocks that saw the Nasdaq, the preferred stock exchange for US tech firms, drop 6.3 per cent to could continue through the US results season. Tech company earnings will be under intense scrutiny with investors likely to dump their tech stocks on even the faintest sign of bad news out of a company, said ETX Capital market strategist Ishaq Siddiqi. This week Yahoo, Intel, Google and IBM are all expected to post soft results with investors looking towards second quarter guidance for reassurance that disappointing first quarter earnings were merely the result of severe US weather conditions. Investors may be willing to look through poor first quarter results brought on by adverse weather conditions if managements offer evidence of improving business activity, Goldman Sachs said in a recent note. FOLLOWING its move into the living room last week with the Fire TV, Amazon is reportedly going to launch a smartphone later this year capable of displaying 3D images, similar to a hologram, on its screen. The smartphone will be announced in June and start shipping in September ahead of the holiday shopping season, according to the Wall Street Journal. Institutions get a stronger hand in new issues BY MICHAEL BOW THE PENDULUM of power in the new issues market could swing back to institutional investors this summer after a spate of companies floated so far this year sank underwater. Big name issues in London including Brit Group, Just Eat, AO World and Pets at Home have all fallen below the price they floated at in recent weeks, prompting concerns new issues are being overpriced. There has been a fatigue and there s a reluctance to feel you have to keep buying stocks in the after market, said Gervais Williams, managing director at Miton Group, which bought into the Brit float last month. It s not a buyer s strike but there s certainly great concern. A lot of corporate financiers are looking at the float as the finishing post and that s not a very good attitude to have. It s a wake up call and arguably not an unhealthy one, Zeus Capital joint chief executive John Goold added. BRITAIN S official statistics do not properly measure investment in the services sector, TheCityUK and former-bank of England policymaker Andrew Sentance warn in a report out today. Their analysis indicates research and investment, as well as The more floats go underwater, the more discerning institutions will be but fundamentally the market should always be open for great companies floating at the right price. Advisers say the high quality of the names coming to market over the next few months bodes well for continued support from institutions, despite fatigue after this year s record breaking volume of new issues. Institutions are simply being a little more selective and focused when determining which companies they will support, Numis head of corporate broking Alex Ham said. Appetite to support the new issuance market remains robust. Three companies joined London s swelling ranks of public firms last week Polypipe, Cambian and Exova with investors watching the performance of all three closely over the next few weeks. Names set to come to market this summer include mega-floats Saga, SSP and later in the year TSB. Economists fear official data underestimate firms investment BY TIM WALLACE investment in workers skills, are not properly shown in official data. If the wrong things are being measured, or the right things are being measured poorly, it will be much harder to encourage the conditions needed to ensure vital investment is made, said Sentance. We need swifter action.
9 cityam.com Heineken to sell off 100 UK pubs BY OLIVER SMITH HEINEKEN is considering plans to sell around 100 of its UK pubs, up to 10 per cent of its British pub estate. The Dutch brewer is understood to be in the earliest stages of talks to dispose of the poorest performing pubs in its portfolio. We currently have around 1,250 pubs in our estate, but there are a small number that do not fit our desired profile going forward, a Poor service in shops is costing retailers 5.4bn BY KASMIRA JEFFORD RETAILERS are losing out on 5.4bn of sales because of bad service in shops and not catering to the needs of ever more demanding consumers, according to a new report by Australian shopping centre giant Westfield. The retailer s 30-page analysis released today identifies eight trends dictating UK s changing shopping habits, including how technology and the simplicity of online shopping is making consumers less tolerant to poor service in store. Of the 8,000 consumers surveyed since June last year, two thirds said they would not use a store if it had bad service and more than half of said they would leave if they had to queue too long for a changing room or to pay. Nearly half of Britons questioned said they chose a shop based on the quality of mobile signal or the availability of wifi, with consumers switching into what Westfield describes as machine mode when they shop. We treat our digital devices like life support machines and if our supply is Heineken spokesperson said. We already have some of these for up for sale on an individual basis and, as would be expected, we keep our disposals strategy under regular review. As matters stand today, we have not made any decisions other than the disposals already in place. Heineken amassed its pub estate following its bn joint acquisition of Scottish & Newcastle, the UK brewer of Foster s and cut off, we ll walk, the report said. Shoppers are also demanding more technology in stores with over 65 per cent of respondents between 14 and 34 years-old saying that digital services, such as touch screen ordering points, self-service tills and virtual mirrors would encourage them to spend more. Men are the most dependent on technology, with 72 per cent using a smartphone or tablet to shop. Overall 70 per cent of Britons use a mobile device to help them shop. Despite rising online competition, Westfield argues that stores will continue to have an important role, but as an art gallery-style space used for socialising as well as shopping. Brands such as Whistles have responded by offering services such as personal stylists and refreshments to win over customers. Retailers have also come under pressure from fierce discounting amid weak consumer spending. As a result sale shopping has become the new normal for consumers regardless of their finances, with 34 per cent using their mobiles to pick up vouchers, Westfield said. Kronenbourg, which turned the company into one of Britain s biggest pub landlords. A number of major British pub chains have been selling off pubs in recent months. Marston s sold 202 pubs in November for 90m to New River Retail as part of efforts to reduce debt and help pay for its new pub-restaurants. Enterprise Inns said in February that it expects to raise 70m from disposals this year. Brits have stuck with shopping habits developed during the recession and seek out value Consumers save up for luxuries and splash out on bargain buys BY KASMIRA JEFFORD CONSUMER spending at bargain and upmarket stores has grown sharply over the last year, according to new figures released yesterday, as shoppers buy from polar ends of the market. Data from Barclaycard, which processes nearly half of the UK s debit and credit transactions, showed that spending at discount stores, budget grocers and fashion outlets has soared by 23 per cent in the year to March as shoppers continue to trade down. Luxury retail spending has also NEWS Travel agency insolvencies soar as buyers book for themselves BY KASMIRA JEFFORD THE NUMBER of travel companies and tour operators closing down has soared over the past year due to more Britons buying holidays online, figures released today show. According to accountants Wilkins Kennedy, 77 travel agencies and tour operators became insolvent in the year to 31 March, up 45 per cent on the previous year. increased it was up six per cent year-on-year in March compared to last year with the average basket amount up nearly nine per cent to 121. The growth of bargain and luxury players has come at a the expense of mid-market retailers, many of which have seen flat or even negative growth. At just 1.1 per cent last month, overall growth was below inflation for the first time in six months, Barclaycard said. Supermarket spending was down 2.6 per cent while departments stores sales were flat. Despite a pick-up in the UK economy, Wilkins Kennedy partner Anthony Cork said the recession accelerated their decline as consumers learnt to book holidays without the help of a travel agent. Travel agents on the high street were once the first and only port of call for booking holidays, but the tide has turned and we are now seeing online booking services and price comparison sites taking over. Odeon s profits stall on a weak Spanish market BY OLIVER SMITH CINEMA giant Odeon saw profits plummet last year as a lack of blockbuster movies and the weak Spanish economy left seats empty at the cinema chain. Odeon s earnings before interest, tax and other charges dropped by 24 per cent to 69.2m while sales fell five per cent to 706.7m. In Spain, where Odeon operates 43 cinemas, Odeon s market volume fell 15 per cent last year. In 2014, there are some early signs that the economy may be turning: unemployment has started to fall slightly and retail sales have started to grow, Odeon said, adding that it has now grown its Spanish market share to 21 per cent. Odeon said 2014 has started well with a strong awards season of films such as The Wolf of Wall Street and American Hustle. The 2014 film slate looks to be well balanced across the year with some good IMAX and 3D titles, as well as local content. Management are confident about the group s prospects as we are well placed to benefit from market recovery, particularly in Spain, and with a strong film slate to come, said Odeon. 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10 10 NEWS cityam.com London takes the lion s share of parking fines BY MARION DAKERS WESTMINSTER Council has kept its title as the biggest parking fine issuer in the country, handing out penalties worth more than 24m to motorists last year, according to figures out today. The council issued more than 455,000 penalty notices in 2013, more than twice the number of the next biggest issuer, Newham, and enough for at least two fines per resident. Research by insurance company Churchill found that UK councils issued fines worth 255m to drivers last year. All of the top 10 councils for motoring penalties are in London, though less than half of the country s councils responded to Churchill s freedom of information requests. The City of London issued tickets worth more than 4m last year, making it the sixth-biggest by penalty value. The capital is extremely congested so we d expect to see a higher number of restrictions in place and penalties being issued. However, there is a fine line between fair and opportunistic that councils shouldn t be tempted to cross, said Steve Barrett, head of Churchill Car Insurance. Nickie Aiken, Westminster s cabinet member for parking, said the council issued half the number of tickets that it did a decade ago and is cutting the use of CCTV in parking enforcement. However we can t get away from the fact that Westminster has some of the busiest roads in the country and we need to manage the flow of traffic, so it s unsurprising we are at the top of this list, she said in a statement. The Department for Communities and Local Government is running a consultation on the sometimes overzealous methods used when enforcing parking rules in the UK. Local government minister Brandon Lewis told parliament last month that councils in England are set to make 635m in net profits from parking fines in , up 5.6 per cent on the previous year. The government is looking into the way councils impose parking fines on drivers TOP 10 PARKING FINE ISSUERS COUNCILS CHARGE NOTICES ISSUED IN 2013 Westminster City Council 455,390 Newham London Borough Council 186,414 Barnet London Borough Council 171,545 Haringey London Borough Council 163,627 Croydon London Borough Council 108,409 Kingston upon Thames Royal Borough 94,618 Enfield London Borough Council 92,886 Hackney London Borough Council 90,095 Barking and Dagenham London Borough Council 88,566 Merton London Borough Council 86,817 SOURCE: Churchill Car Insurance Signal fades from missing Malaysia plane BY CITY A.M. REPORTER THE SEARCH for a missing Malaysia Airlines jetliner continued over the weekend amid fears that batteries powering signals from the black box recorder may have died. Flight MH370 disappeared soon after taking off on 8 March from Kuala Lumpur bound for Beijing with 227 passengers and 12 crew on board, triggering a multinational search that is now focused on the Indian Ocean. Work continues in an effort to narrow the underwater search area for when the Autonomous Underwater Vehicle is deployed, the Australian agency coordinating the search said on Saturday. There have been no confirmed acoustic detections over the past 24 hours, it said. Investigators probing the disappearance believe that the co-pilot of the Boeing 777 tried to make a call with his mobile phone after the plane was diverted from its scheduled route, but the call did not connect, Malaysia s New Straits Times reported on Saturday. A Malaysian government minister denied the claimss.
11 Defence firms speak out on Scots split plan BY SUZIE NEUWIRTH ADS GROUP, which represents the UK s aerospace, defence, security and space industries, yesterday became the latest organisation to speak out against Scottish independence. The trade body warned that if Scotland votes to break away from the UK at September s referendum, the resulting uncertainty could have a damaging effect on investor confidence and export deals. ADS members in the UK aerospace, defence, security and space industries benefit from the stability, strength and scale of the whole of the UK, said chief executive Paul Everitt. September s Referendum on the future of Scotland could have a profound impact on these sectors global competitiveness. ADS comments follow a similar warning last month from BAE Systems, which employs 35,000 people across the UK. The defence giant said that continued union would offer greater cer- tainty and stability for its business. Lloyds Banking Group and oil giants Shell and BP have also expressed concerns about devolution, while insurer Standard Life warned that it may relocate its operations to England. In addition to the debates about monetary and fiscal policy, there is genuine uncertainty about the impact of independence on the UK s and Scotland s international influence, export opportunities and inward investment, continued Everitt. Companies are concerned about the costs and consequences negotiation and transition arrangements might have on procurement budgets, mature supply chains and highlyskilled workforces. The UK is the second largest exporter of defence equipment and services in the world, after the US, according to data cited by ADS. In 2012, its defence exports rose by almost two thirds to 8.8bn, equating to 20 per cent of the global defence export market. Mentors: Risk Capital Partners Luke Johnson and Confused.com founder Sara Murray Luke Johnson among mentors for John Lewis incubator scheme BY KASMIRA JEFFORD JOHN Lewis yesterday announced a 12-strong panel of experts, including entrepreneur Luke Johnson, who will help advise and judge the technology start-ups competing to develop the next big thing for its stores. The department store group is setting up a technology incubator called JLAB, with five successful firms given office space and advice to come up with a product or idea that ensures John Lewis remains on the cutting edge of change. Bindi Karia, vice president of entrepreneur banking at Silicon Valley Bank and Sara Murray, who founded confused.com as well as electronic tagging business Buddi, are also among the mentors who will help oversee the scheme. The project, which will run from June until September, was launched last month in partnership with tech entrepreneur Stuart Marks. At the end of the 12 weeks, JLAB will pick a winner and invest 100,000 to develop its project. NEWS Watchdog set to probe BT s fibre pricing BY OLIVER SMITH 11 BT IS PREPARING for a battle with the regulator to defend its wholesale pricing of superfast fibre to other operators such as Sky and TalkTalk. Last May TalkTalk complained to Ofcom, alleging that BT had been abusing a dominant position by making the wholesale price, that all providers pay, too close to its own fibre broadband retail price. Last week the issue of BT s fibre wholesale pricing was brought up in a broker note from Redburn, which claimed there is evidence BT used its market position to squeeze its competitors margins and increase its own market share. BT s shares slipped 3.5 per cent after the note. We think Ofcom s margin squeeze test could reduce BT wholesale fibre prices by at least 2 per month initially, with ongoing monitoring potentially leading to further cuts, said Redburn. Ofcom is expected to expand its probe of BT s fibre pricing into a formal consultation in May this year. BT denied TalkTalk s allegations of margin squeezing and said that the Redburn note: is flawed as it understates the revenues and overstates the costs that would be taken into account in any margin squeeze assessment.
12 12 NEWS cityam.com Oil majors Shell and BP sign gas supply agreement with Kuwait PENHALIGON S BOUNCE PAVES WAY FOR SALE BY CITY A.M. REPORTER OIL giants Royal Dutch Shell and BP have signed deals to supply Kuwait with liquefied natural gas (LNG) over the next few years, a Kuwait Petroleum Corporation (KPC) official was quoted as saying yesterday. Kuwait began importing LNG in 2009 to cope with increased air conditioning demand over the hot Middle Eastern summers. Jamal Al-Loughani, deputy director of marketing at KPC, told the Kuwaiti Al-Seyassah newspaper that Shell and BP have been contracted to supply the country over the next five to six summers. He said the total volume of super-cooled gas to be delivered between the two companies would be around 2.5m tonnes a year. Kuwait will sign another contract to buy LNG from a third company later this week, he said, without disclosing the name of the other party. KPC signed deals for Shell and Swiss-based trader Vitol to supply it with LNG over the last four summers. BP was unavailable for comment. Shell declined to comment by the deadline. HISTORIC British perfume maker Penhaligon s increased pre-tax profits by 30 per cent last year, helping pave the way for a potential sale of the business. The firm, which dates back to 1870, said pre-tax profits rose to 1.1m from 812,004. The healthy figures could prompt owner, Fox Paine & Company, to seek an exit for the business. Zeus Capital top of the board for junior flotations BY MICHAEL BOW LONDON S northern rival Manchester has emerged as a burgeoning scene for equity capital markets, with a Salfordbased advisory rocketing to the top of the league for junior market listed flotations for the first time. Zeus Capital has soared to the top of the Alternative Investment Market (Aim) adviser rankings for new firms coming to market, thanks to its work on two of the biggest floats on Aim since It is the first time the company has headed the list, which is compiled by Dealogic, after being placed in second place last year. The surge was driven by the float of Manchester-based online fashion retailer Boohoo in March, which raised 300m for the company. It comes as the Manchester office of investment bank Rothschild also enjoys an uptick in advisory work. after working with Bolton-based AO World on its 1.2bn market float. Rothschild has been based in the city for 45 years, owing to its historic ties with the famous banking dynasty. BROKEN pawnbroker Albemarle & Bond will be sold by its administrators PwC this week to a private equity consortium led by Promethean Investments. The company, which was delisted from the London stock exchange after its shares became worthless, is expected to see some of its stores rescued by Promethean and Apollo Global Management. Mike Jervis, joint administrator Together, Boohoo and AO World represent two of the biggest internetrelated floats in the world so far this year, trailing the US float of King. Zeus, which also has offices in Birmingham and London, also helped with the initial public offering of DX Group, the second biggest float on Aim this year. In total the company raised 514.5m for three companies floating on Aim between January and March, more than double the amount raised by its nearest competitor. Zeus Capital is extremely proud of its track record as nominated adviser and broker to some of the UK s most successful IPOs and the returns it has provided for investors through its focus on quality businesses, jointchief executive John Goold said. The increase comes amid the best first quarter for junior stock market listings for some years. Figures from Dealogic reveal that the first quarter of the year saw 18 floats on the market raising 1.07bn triple the six floats that raised 35.5m during the same period last year when markets were quieter. Albemarle & Bond finds suitor to help rescue remnants of firm BY MICHAEL BOW at PwC, can confirm that negotiations with a preferred bidder for the sale of the Albemarle & Bond group as a going concern are at an advanced stage. The deal is set to be completed early next week, PwC said. Promethean is chaired by founder Sir Peter Burt, former executive deputy chairman at Halifax Royal Bank of Scotland (Hbos). Rival pawnbroker H&T had also expressed interest in Albemarle & Bond.
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14 14 cityam.com THECAPITALIST Got A Story? EDITED BY cityam.com/the-capitalist GABRIELLA GRIFFITH THREE THINGS YOU DIDN T KNOW ABOUT... CFA Institute, managing director for EMEA Nitin Mehta Mehta was born in Tanzania but 1 moved to Gujarat, India when he was young. He learnt to read and write using a slate and chalk something the ipad reminds him of each time he uses one. 2 He has a first class degree in computer science but tries to keep this a secret. It was such a long time ago, you could graduate without even touching a computer these days I barely know how to switch one on. His wife says he s 3 a risk to go on holiday with. On one holiday he was carjacked in the morning and poisoned at lunch. He had a car crash on another trip, and on their honeymoon in Rio the hotel burned down on their first night. April heat can t stop the City s marathon stars THE SUN was cracking the flags yesterday as an estimated 36,000 people took part in the London Marathon. As ever, the City certainly didn t disappoint, with hundreds of financial professionals pulling on the Lycra and taking part. Barclays alone had an estimated 150 runners racing, while private equity firm LDC had 14 people running for diabetes charity JDRF. Even the Gherkin was represented (pictured). Madeline Forrester, head of UK institutional at AXA Investment Managers, ran the Big smiles from the Hume-Kendalls race in four hours 19 minutes in fancy dress. Stayed in my wonder woman costume despite the heat, but I abandoned the tiara! she told The Capitalist. Chairman of global corporate and investment banking EMEA Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Rupert Hume- Kendall, ran with his wife Caroline in aid of Action Medical Research. The pair managed a very respectable four hours 20 minutes, raising almost 22,000. Feeling older, stiffer but happy, they both said. Bravo to all we say. Spot the Gherkin! Seb Falk, a teacher from Cambridge, raised 10,709 for The Cure Parkinson s Trust by racing as the Gherkin VIA THERE S a manhunt afoot following Southeastern s revelation that a senior City executive, thought to be a hedgie, had racked up a record breaking 43,000 in dodged fares over the past five years and had to pay out a 42,550 penalty plus 450 in legal fees in the past few weeks. The fund manager had been boarding in East Sussex where there are no barriers, getting to London Bridge, taking a connecting train to Cannon Street and simply tapping out (paying the 7.20 fine for not tapping in) each day. We re all dying to know who he is. Clues? His commute starts in Stonegate, East Sussex and he might work near Cannon Street. Could it be enough to find his identity? THE HISCOX Art Cafe lived up to its name on Thursday night when nearly 100 art admirers gathered for a private view of 97 pieces of donated art, by names such as Tracey Emin, Gavin Turk and Keith Tyson. The lucky guests were given the chance to walk away with the artworks by entering a raffle. It was all to celebrate Housing The Homeless Central Fund s 50th anniversary and the charity managed to raise upwards of 8,000, thanks in no small part to sponsors Hiscox, Aviva and The Grange Hotels. Hiscox chief exec Bronek Masojada was on hand to give a speech but the insurance giant s founder Robert Hiscox wasn t in attendance. The Capitalist wonders if he was caught up with his latest acquisition? Reports emerged over the weekend he has bought The White Horse Bookshop, in Marlborough, Wilts in a bid to save it from closure. With Amazon s dominance in the book market, it s a formidable task but as an insurance expert, Hiscox is no stranger to risk. SOME COUNT SHEEP. OTHERS COUNT KM. Available from stores Nationwide and online at The British 10K London Run. The world s greatest road race route. Sign-up now for this iconic race - Keep up to date with the latest news from official British 10K partner New Balance. Fresh Foam 980 #NBBritish10K 10:00 P.M. London, UK The sun is down, but the day isn t done. So go get your run in. This is 10k training. THIS IS RUNNOVATION.
15 cityam.com Success for Ukip as EU polls show Lib Dem slump BY KATE McCANN NIGEL Farage s Ukip party has hit record highs in a string of recent polls, which could spell success at the ballot box in the European elections in May. The most recent ComRes poll this weekend put Ukip on 20 per cent of the vote, with the Conservatives on 29 per cent and Labour polling 35 per cent. The Liberal Democrats are trailing behind on just seven per cent, leading to speculation that they could be wiped out in the EU par- liament altogether in May. Other polls had Ukip on 18 and 15 per cent, with the Lib Dems on seven and nine per cent. A spokesman for leader Nick Clegg said: These are clearly much more challenging circumstances than when we last fought these elections in 2009, but the Liberal Democrats are campaigning hard as the only party prepared to make the case for Britain being in Europe. Meanwhile a Ukip spokesman called the results exciting, adding that Ukip has connected with the British public. Ukip leader Nigel Farage is enjoying good poll results Skype your GP if you can t get an appointment, says Cameron BY KATE McCANN MILLIONS of people across the UK will soon be able to Skype or text their GP if they can t get an appointment, the Prime Minister is set to announce today. A 50m pilot scheme has been extended to help people get access to their doctor via phone, text or over the internet. The plans were originally set to benefit just 500,000 people but will now be available to 7.5m due to high demand. The changes will also see 1,147 practices staying open for longer, including over the weekend and evenings. Health minister Norman Lamb told the Telegraph that technology will play an increasingly important role, adding: We have got to break away from this treadmill of the 10-minute appointment which drives GPs crazy and which leaves patients often frustrated. NEWS 15 Clegg takes on gender divide BY KATE McCANN DEPUTY Prime Minister Nick Clegg will host a seminar on the gender pay gap today, in a bid to narrow it. According to figures cited by the Lib Dems from the ONS, the gulf between what men and women earn in the UK is 19.7 per cent on average, compared to 25 per cent 10 years ago. We ve made good progress whilst in coalition to address discrimination and provide a more flexible, modern workplace, but we need to make this the norm, and go further to close the gender pay gap, Clegg said.
16 16 NEWS cityam.com The boss of London s new derivatives exchange tells Elizabeth Fournier why competition is the key to success CV CHARLOTTE CROSSWELL Offsetting risk while taking on the big players THE WORLD of derivatives is riddled with acronyms. From OTC (overthe-counter) trades to the Mifid (markets in financial instruments directive) regulations trickling down from Europe, securities trading is a hotbed of impenetrable codes that can make talking to its participants like learning a whole new language. But after 16 years in the exchanges business, Charlotte Crosswell is fluent. The chief executive of Nasdaq OMX s European derivatives platform NLX has spent the majority of her career hopping between the US giant and its UK rival the London Stock Exchange, witnessing the thwarted Nasdaq/LSE takeover battle in first hand. After dipping her toes into private equity, Crosswell was lured back to trading by the launch of a new Nasdaq equity platform in October Though it did not survive the crisis, Crosswell did; reemerging last year as head of an interest rate exchange with big ambitions. Until last year interest rates in Europe were both traded on two different venues, and cleared on two different venues, she explains. We saw an opportunity to bring all of them onto one platform and clear all of them in the same place. Those two venues were big fish for a new player to take on: Liffe the 22- year old London institution that s now part of the IntercontinentalExchange (Ice) group; and Eurex, the German exchange that s been trading more than 1bn contracts per year since It took Eurex five years to hit that milestone, but just 10 months after the launch NLX is well on its way to catching up trading more than 10m lots so far and attracting clearing banks including Citi, UBS, Nomura and RBS. Very early on in discussions with the market it was clear there was an overwhelming desire to support competition, Crosswell says. People always want lower fees but they also want something different. At a time of flux in the market, with Charlotte Crosswell says regulators in the UK and across Europe have been supportive of the new venture Liffe joining Ice and moving into clearing, NLX cemented its success by offering clients an element of familiarity; pairing up with LCH Clearnet, where many of the big banks already held their OTC portfolios. We had an advantage of going in and saying Yes, we re a new venue, but all of the back office is the same as it always has been. That s by far the biggest reason that people supported us. All of this was going on during a period of intense regulatory change. As Dodd-Frank worked its way through the US, EU regulators have been thrashing out both Mifid II and the European Market Infrastructure Regulation, with Crosswell estimating she has spoken to four EU presidencies in the process of setting up the platform. Add the oversight of the UK s financial conduct authority, and you ve got a maelstrom of potential hurdles to success. But Crosswell insists the process has been smooth, though demanding. We re sitting here creating jobs, creating competition; we ve got a lot of support on the back of that because it ties into the objectives of what the regulators are doing. n : Studied French at the University of Southampton. n : Started her career in the European equity sales team at Goldman Sachs. n : Spent six years at the London Stock Exchange as head of international business development. n : Moved to Nasdaq as head of Nasdaq International n : Shifted into private equity, working as head of business development for the Pension Corporation. n 2008-present: Rejoined Nasdaq as it launched a new equity platform, which was shut down in Helped launch Nasdaq OMX NLX in May last year. n Lives in Parsons Green with her five-year-old daughter. Enjoys skiing, sailing and good wine. While juggling global regulators, Crosswell has also found time to be one of the few female CEOs who are keen to talk about women in the workplace. For a long time I didn t get involved in the debate most women in senior roles just want to get on with their jobs, Crosswell says. But I think if you don t start to talk about it and look at what you can do to help then you re doing a disservice to the next generation. The debate is very much open now... I m a big fan of raising the debate and making sure there s positive action on the back of it. LAURA LEAN/CITY AM
17 cityam.com CITY MOVES WHO S SWITCHING JOBS Edited by Annabel Palmer NEWS 17 Bishopsgate Financial The financial sector consultancy has announced the appointment of Adam Crawford as a director. He left the Royal Marines in 2012, and has since worked at Oppenheimer and as a freelance consultant for Saab Group. Close Brothers Asset Management The asset management company has hired Amy Lazenby as an investor director and lead portfolio manager for its tailored portfolio service. She has over 10 years investment experience. Lazenby joins from Wilson King Investment Management, which she cofounded in Jupiter Martin Harris has been appointed head of institutional business at the asset management firm. He was most recently at Kames Capital, where he was head of distribution and responsible for raising capital and investor relations. Prior to that, Harris was global head of investor relations and capital raising at CQS London. Winckworth Sherwood The law firm has appointed three new real estate partners. James Mackay joined the firm last year from Nabarro, where he was a senior associate. Gemma Pryke was formerly a senior associate at Nabarro, and joined in Will Rutter trained at Winckworth Sherwood, qualifying in Money Advice Trust The Money Advice Trust has hired Jane Tully as head of insight and engagement. She has previously held roles at the Charity Finance Group, the Charity Commission and NSPCC. Marketform The Lloyd s underwriter has made two appointments. Dawn Marie Kempson joins as head of human resources. She previously held positions at Morgan Stanley Investment Bank and HSBC. Rodney Aggrey joins as head of financial planning and analysis from Genpact Group, where he was assistant vice president. ACE Melanie Sandy has joined the insurance firm as a partnership marketing manager in its accident and healthcare team. She previously worked on strategy and development at More Th>n. To appear in CITYMOVES please your career updates and pictures to UN says shale gas can combat climate change BY SUZIE NEUWIRTH SHALE gas could help beat global climate change, according to a new UN study that warned greenhouse gas emissions have risen to unprecedented levels. The report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) said that global mean temperatures would increase by three to five degrees by the end of the century unless there was a significant overhaul of energy policy. Climate policies in line with the two degrees celsius goal need to aim for substantial emission reductions, said Ottmar Edenhofer, co-chair of the IPCC report. There is a clear message from science: To avoid dangerous interference with the climate system, we need to move away from business as usual. The report said that the share of energy from low-carbon sources, including wind and nuclear, would have to be three or four times larger by 2050, to help bring down global emissions to about half of what they are today. Greenhouse gas emissions from energy supply can be reduced significantly by replacing current world average coal-fired power plants with modern, highly efficient natural gas combined-cycle power plants or com- bined heat and power plants, said the report. Edenhofer spoke in particular about shale gas, which he said could be very consistent with low carbon development and decarbonisation. The comments will be well received by the UK government, which has strongly encouraged development of the country s burgeoning shale gas industry, hoping for a US-style energy revolution. But the hydraulic fracturing technique used to extract the resource has attracted controversy, as critics claim it causes earth tremors. The IPCC study comes ahead of a global climate change treaty that the UN hopes will be signed in Paris next year. The tools we need to tackle climate change are available but international efforts need to significantly increase if dangerous temperature rise is to be avoided. The longer we leave it, the more expensive it will be to avoid the worst effects of climate change, said energy secretary Ed Davey. In order to meet our carbon targets, ensure a secure energy supply and keep prices affordable, we need to invest in a balanced energy mix including renewables, nuclear, gas and carbon capture and storage, said Michelle Hubert at the Confederation of British Industry. Lawyers warn mid-tier European firms will be hit by reporting vote BY ELIZABETH FOURNIER A CRUCIAL decision on nonfinancial reporting rules risks creating confusion and an uneven playing field across Europe, lawyers have warned. The European Commission is due to vote this week on changes to EU law that governs how non financial firms update investors, introducing mandatory reporting standards for all companies employing more than 500 staff. Though the draft directive is intended to harmonise standards across Europe and increase transparency around issues including diversity, environmental impact and anti-bribery controls, lawyers at Pinsent Masons are concerned that the rules could split the business community. Big businesses in developed economies will excel as they are generally used to sophisticated non-financial reporting and have the resources to absorb the costs, said Frederic Ichay, a Paris-based partner. For smaller and mid-sized businesses, however, this creates an additional burden. Ichay estimates that up to 6,000 businesses could be affected by the new rules, with particular scrutiny of those bidding for public contracts. 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18 cityam.com CITYDASHBOARD In association with LONDON REPORT BESTof the BROKERS Cheer for UK as real pay up and inflation falling BRITAIN S economy is set to put the recession firmly behind this week with news of the first real wage growth in four years and falling unemployment. Inflation and unemployment data are expected to show wage growth in March beating inflation. Capital Economics Paul Hollingsworth said: The latest earnings data should show that the squeeze on real pay is now over. Survey measures of workers pay continue to point to a strong pick-up in earnings growth. We expect the headline (three-month average) rate to increase to 1.9 per cent above CPI (consumer price index) inflation of 1.7 per cent the same month. Unemployment figures, due to be released on Wednesday, promise more good news. Barclays Blerina Uruci said: We expect February labour activity data to support our view of steady, albeit more moderate, improvement. We forecast the February unemployment rate to have edged down to 7.1 per cent. We expect the March claimant count measure (a more timely indicator) to have fallen by 29,000. The corporate calendar starts today with updates from MP Evans Group and Carrs Milling Industries. Tomorrow Amara Mining and JD Sports Fashion will give full-year figures, while Aggreko, Debenhams, Energy Assets Group, GKN, Hochschild Mining, Michael Page International, Rio Tinto and SABMiller will update the market. Supermarket giant Tesco is scheduled to give its final figures on Wednesday, with analysts forecasting a drop in profits. Burberry Group, Dialight, Fresnillo, Evraz, Hargreaves Lansdown, Hunting, Noble Corporation, Persimmon, Polymetal International and Reckitt Benckiser are also set to report that day. Analysts said Burberry is likely to show sales growth, but the entire luxury sector is suffering a downturn. Barclays analysts said: Burberry has shown impressive like-for-like sales growth of 13 per cent YTD in a very difficult soft luxury market materially outperforming peers. This is likely to be tested in Q (to March) in a tough market and against the most difficult comp of the year, with peers including Prada and Tod s suggesting that Calendar Q1 (first quarter) is disappointing. On Thursday Diageo, Ferrexpo, Lavendon Group and NCC Group are all expected to give trading updates. FTSE 6,700 6, ,675 6,650 6,625 6,600 6,575 6,550 7 Apr 8 Apr 9 Apr 11 Apr 10 Apr 11 Apr To appear in Best of the Brokers, your research to Rio Tinto PLC p 3,500 3,400 3,300 7 Apr 8 Apr 9 Apr 10 Apr 3, Apr 11 Apr RIO TINTO UBS thinks the mining group is a buy and has a target price of 40 ahead of a production update tomorrow. The broker thinks iron ore output will be eight per cent down on the previous quarter, due to tough weather in Canada, and expects to see progress at the Pilbara project. Taylor Wimpey PLC p Apr 8 Apr 9 Apr 10 Apr 11 Apr TAYLOR WIMPEY Peel Hunt tells investors to hold the housebuilder and has a target of 128p ahead of a trading statement on Thursday. The broker thinks Taylor Wimpey doesn t offer the same capital prospects as Persimmon, which will issue an update on Wednesday, or Berkeley, though the firm is trading well. Burberry Group PLC p 1,440 1,420 1,400 1,380 1, Apr 1, Apr 7 Apr 8 Apr 9 Apr 10 Apr 11 Apr BURBERRY Deutsche Bank has a hold rating on the luxury brand and a target of 1,575p as it looks ahead to quarterly results on Wednesday. The broker is expecting like-for-like sales up 10 per cent, though currency movements could trim five per cent from earnings. 19 YOUR ONE- STOP SHOP BROKER VIEWS AND MARKET REPORTS THE WEEK AHEAD Biotech stocks slide likely to hit US earnings THE wrenching selloff in US high-growth technology and biotech shares could leave investors braced for more than a minor pullback when earnings pick up speed this week. First-quarter earnings estimates have fallen sharply as many companies have blamed the brutal winter for weak outlooks. With high-valuation stocks under pressure, earnings could be subjected to even more investor scrutiny than usual. Profit growth for Standard & Poor s 500 companies now is projected at just 0.9 per cent growth in the first quarter from a year ago, down from a 1 January forecast for 6.5 per cent growth, Thomson Reuters data showed. This week, 54 S&P 500 companies are scheduled to report first-quarter earnings, compared with 29 reporting last week. Earnings are expected from such high-profile names as General Electric, Johnson & Johnson, Goldman Sachs, Google and IBM. The economic calendar will include retail sales today, the Consumer Price Index tomorrow, US housing starts and industrial output on Wednesday and the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia s business activity index on Thursday. The latest weekly initial jobless claims will also come out on Thursday. Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen will speak on Wednesday to the Economic Club of New York. The US stock market will be closed for Good Friday. Volume is likely to be lighter than usual with some away to observe Passover, which will begin at sundown today. Voted No. 1 for ease of use. * Our platform has now been further enhanced, giving you greater flexibility and control even during volatile conditions. Not all spread betting companies can say the same. Apply for an account today capitalspreads.com THE EASIEST TO USE PLATFORM * NOW DELIVERS EVEN GREATER CONTROL. Capital Spreads is a trading name of London Capital Group Ltd, which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. *Investment Trends 2013 UK CFD, Financial Spread Betting & FX Report. Losses can exceed deposits. Spread Betting I CFDs I FX Master the up and down.
19 20 THEFORUM cityam.com/forum Is the UK still open for business? Not if politicians keep meddling in markets AFTER seven years at the top, last month London lost its place as the number one city in the Global Financial Centres Index. Is this a temporary slippage, or should we be concerned? I have always thought of the City, and the UK, as one of the best places to invest and do business. We have a rare combination of supportive institutions and customs, which have evolved over centuries to produce an entrepreneurial culture and an excellent environment for private sector investment and job creation. However, such strengths must not be taken for granted and, indeed, should be actively nurtured. Yet there are times when it seems that politicians and regulators prefer sound bites to substance, at the risk of tarnishing our hard won reputation for sensible long-term policy making. As such, perception could become reality, ultimately making the UK a less attractive place to do business. Four key attributes have made the UK a great country to invest in. First, we have a well-established, independent nsimon GERGEL legal system; secondly, strong investor protection and a respect for minority rights are enshrined in UK company law and our corporate governance regime; thirdly, the UK political establishment is generally supportive of free market capitalism; finally, we have regulatory institutions with clear mandates, largely free from day-to-day political interference. The first two remain intact. But we have recently seen a notable degree of political interference in business. And we are now, regrettably, also seeing regulators under enormous pressure to act in ways that gain them political or public favour, but which may not be in the longer-term interests of the country. Of course, political involvement in business is nothing new and, to the extent that the government has a duty to ensure that companies are properly regulated and accountable, it should be welcomed. There is also a long pedigree of political intervention in business most notably in fiscal policy that might well be described as expedient. Nevertheless, the scale of recent interventions, actual or threatened, is elevated. We have seen upheaval in the banking industry, albeit for understandable reasons. But here, there is a balance to be struck between having strong, safe financial institutions holding more capital, and the need for the same organisations to lend money to help boost economic recovery. We can t have our cake and eat it. Banking is an inherently risky business. And in the same way that the only truly safe car is one parked in a garage, the only truly safe bank is one that doesn t lend money. We need to accept some degree of risk. In the energy sector, a well-intentioned desire to reduce customer bills may have the reverse effect in the long term. Because of the uncertainty about political interference in price setting and now a multi-year competition review, two of the largest energy producers and suppliers, Centrica and SSE, have announced reduced investment plans, which will impact the availability of electricity supply to the UK and may push up prices. The industry needs a long-term framework to stimulate investment. The life insurance industry, another that works to extremely long timeframes, has also been impacted, with three separate announcements in just two weeks. The relaxation of rules on taking annuities and the subsequent limit on certain charges may be welcome. But to have both announced on different days, shortly followed by an FCA review of many back book policies, could easily be misconstrued as an orchestrated campaign to unsettle investors in the industry. Perhaps a period of share price volatility doesn t matter in the greater scheme of things, as long as the eventual policy decisions are fair, proportionate and sensible. But uncertainty not only delays investment decisions, it also raises the cost of capital for UK companies. In simple terms, investors can invest in many businesses around the world. If UK firms are subject to unpredictable and unquantifiable political and regulatory risks, investors may choose to put their money elsewhere, forcing UK companies and customers to ultimately pay a higher price to attract that investment capital back into a riskier country. With European Parliamentary elections imminent and in the run up to the General Election, there will be an increasing risk of populist and shortterm remarks creating policy uncertainty for the future, thereby undermining inward investment into UK business. In turn, this has a knock on effect on savers and investors, who increasingly rely on stable investment returns for income. So is the UK still open for business? If I had to judge, the answer would be a qualified yes: the door remains open, but it would appear that the welcome mat has been rolled up for now. It would be a great shame for the economy and investors for it to be put away. Simon Gergel is chief investment officer, UK equities at Allianz Global Investors. Agree? Disagree? Got a sharp comment? The Forum wants you to join the debate. THE TURNOVER of Italian governments has been a regular feature of the European political structure for many years. Matteo Renzi s recent elevation into the Prime Minister s position has therefore been regarded in some quarters with ennui. He faces formidable challenges not least questionable support within the Parliament, and attempting to reform the Italian political and judicial bureaucracy. To add to his agenda, Italy assumes the Presidency of the European Union in July for a critical six months in which a new Commission will be chosen. However, Renzi s relative youth and outsider status as the mayor of on the web: cityam.com/forum or by Florence, rather than a member of Parliament, may give him a muchneeded helping hand. Two weeks ago, I was among a group of business people who met with Renzi on his first visit to London, and last week the lord mayor and I visited Italy for a traditional pre-presidency visit. These meetings left me with a very clear vision for Renzi s premiership: he is determined to drive through the reforms that Italy needs and is prepared to stake his office on it. Most political leaders wisely stay clear of reforming the political and judicial structure turkeys and Christmas coming to mind. But for Italy to experience the growth it needs, the case for reform is clear: a slow decision-making processes and a judicial system that makes contracts difficult to enforce (if they get to court at all) are harming Italy s competitiveness. Taking on the establishment requires support, and the single biggest impression I gained from my visit to Italy was that Renzi has this backing, from business leaders, officials and politicians. If he can also mobilise public opinion, then he has every chance of being successful, and putting Italy where it belongs as one of the small group of large and influential European Union member states. And from a British perspective, if Renzi can manage to drive through the necessary domestic reforms, he will have credibility at the European level and will be able to play his part in reforming the European Union. Italy has often not been on the same side as Britain on EU issues, but this is an opportunity for our two countries to work together to secure reform from the inside for the benefit of all. This is an approach Renzi, like other European leaders, could sign Top responses will be reprinted in The Forum. Why Britain should be watching Italy s reformist new leadership closely CITY MATTERS nmark BOLEAT up to. Working with the new generation of leaders in Europe is one of the most important ways for Britain to achieve its renegotiation goals, and to wield more clout at the decision table. The remainder of the year will be a critical time for Italy, with real opportunity for both the structural reforms that are so sorely needed, and for Italy to start pulling its weight in the EU. The early signs suggest that Italy has a leader focused on making this happen. Britain should be watching carefully and engaging critically; Italy could be about to become the country to watch in Europe. Mark Boleat is policy chairman at the City of London Corporation. Update yourself at CITYAM.com
20 21 WE WANT TO HEAR YOUR VIEWS E: Comment: Let the people vote [Re: Let voters kick out MPs between elections and watch standards soar, Thursday] The right to recall is a vital addition to Britain s democratic toolkit. Some argue that it would mark the end of representative democracy our MPs would become delegates, following the whim of public opinion. But who can say that the majority of MPs behave like national-spirited guardians of our historic liberties today? Their powers have been circumscribed by the EU, they are whipped into voting for what their parties wish, and the disconnect between MPs and public has never been wider. Let us kick them out when we want. Sam Rutland LETTERS to the editor Housing bank [Re: How London can smash through the brick ceiling limiting housing supply, Wednesday] Richard Blakeway s figures about the reality of socalled landbanking are very good, but his Housing Bank solution is strange. Rather than an incentive for developers to build below market value houses, which will be stuck on their books for a decade, the deputy mayor should be pushing his other solutions. Housing Zones, if they can channel anything like the long-term success of the Docklands regeneration, sound like a good start. While innovation is good, it s probably best that it s left to the private sector. Name withheld As Russian troops assemble near the Ukrainian border, can the crisis be solved by diplomacy? YES John Lough The West is not going to go to war over Ukraine, and Moscow knows it. Over the past two weeks, Russia has been steadily ramping up the pressure on Kiev and its western partners to find a diplomatic settlement (negotiated jointly with Russia) that will stabilise Ukraine. Moscow wants to ensure that Ukraine does not integrate with the EU and Nato, and that Ukraine s regions receive enhanced powers at the expense of the central government in Kiev. Putin sees that Ukraine s western partners do not have the appetite to bailout its economy and take on the long-term challenges of supporting painful reforms. By presenting a picture of popular revolt leading to chaos in the southeast of Ukraine, Russia has positioned itself as the only player equipped to address Ukraine s immediate problems. Reluctantly, the West will accept that it lacks the means to compete with Moscow in its own backyard. Whether this Russian-led settlement will prove durable is another matter. John Lough is an associate fellow at Chatham House. BEST OF TWITTER China: 64 per cent of wealthiest people have left the country or are planning to, from 60 per cent in IMF still sees Greece needing some help over the next two years, despite its return to Brussels scuppers BoE s lifeline for banks, rejecting UK pleas. So much for British influence in William Hill says 52 per cent of bets on Scottish referendum have been for No, 48 per cent for NO Andrew Foxall A diplomatic solution to the crisis is increasingly unlikely for three reasons. First, the parameters would need to be agreed in advance of discussions. Yet the divide between Russia, on one hand, and Ukraine and the West, on the other, is vast. When Russia s foreign minister Sergei Lavrov and US secretary of state John Kerry met in March, the only thing they agreed on was that they disagreed. Second, Russia s diplomatic solution to the crisis is not very diplomatic. It is one whereby Crimea remains in Russia and Ukraine becomes a federation in which significant power is devolved to regions in the east and south. It suits nobody other than the Kremlin. Finally, it is not clear whether Russia even wants a diplomatic solution. As things stand, an estimated 35,000 to 40,000 Russian troops are amassed on Ukraine s eastern border. Russia has continually demonstrated that it operates by force, not diplomacy. Dr Andrew Foxall is director of the Russia Studies Centre at The Henry Jackson Society. The airport debate has forgotten free markets IF YOU VE ever wondered why the airport capacity debate has become so problematic, two contributions last week, each exemplifying one of the camps by which it is dominated, show why. First, International Airlines Group chief executive Willie Walsh warned that the UK economy risks falling behind if the government blocks airport expansion. He pointed to Dubai Airport, which looks set to overtake Heathrow in terms of passenger numbers this year. Secondly, the New Economics Foundation (NEF) called upon the government to shut down London City Airport, claiming it was taking up precious inner city land. Walsh used the rhetoric of the global race ; the NEF represents a deep green mix of environmentalists and anti-consumerists who are deeply hostile to air travel. From a free market economic perspective, however, neither camp is convincing. And since it was deregulation and privatisation that led to the astonishing growth and democratisation of air travel (211m passengers passed through UK airports in 2011, up from about 40m in the early 1970s), this is a big problem. The global racers see airports as a mercantilist tool, to be deployed in a strategic industrial policy. They never question the rationale for the existence of the Airports Commission, which should have no place in a market economy. It has forced airports wishing to expand to submit what amount to business plans. Yet when demand for beer increases, we do not set up a Brewery Commission to evaluate which brewery should expand, and in which way. We let the market decide. Global racers also view airports as objects of national prestige. But decisions should be determined by what makes economic sense, not by a perceived imperative to match whatever Dubai or other countries are doing. Still, the global racers generally reach sensible conclusions. Environmentalist opponents of expansion are profoundly wrong. Aviation does cause negative nkristian NIEMIETZ externalities, but these are already internalised through Air Passenger Duty, a quasi-pigouvian tax with rates that exceed available estimates of the social cost of carbon. Final ticket prices already contain the social cost of flying. Emissions from intra-european air travel are also covered by the EU s carbon cap-and-trade system, so environmental costs are tackled twice. Surely, there is no environmental case for arbitrarily shutting down airports. The NEF s economic arguments are spurious too. It claims there are better uses for the area of City Airport, which could be true. But nothing would stop a private consortium from acquiring the airport, closing it, and putting it to whatever that better use is. The NEF also says City Airport provides no benefits to the local area, citing Newham s low average income and high unemployment rate. But this is judging it by impossible standards. Nobody could expect such a tiny airport to singlehandedly regenerate a whole borough. This is where we come to a better solution to the whole issue. If securing greater benefits for local residents is the NEF s concern, it should advocate fiscal decentralisation: let local authorities retain most of the tax revenue generated at the airport. And the principle could be extended to airport expansion more generally. Let beneficiaries buy the right to conduct the activity from those who are adversely affected, without involving politicians. Unsurprisingly, this is the one option the NEF steers well clear of. It might endear residents to airports a lot more. Dr Kristian Niemietz is a senior research fellow at the Institute of Economic Affairs, and author of Depoliticising Airport 4th Floor, 33 Queen Street, London, EC4R 1BR Tel: Fax: Editorial Editor Allister Heath Deputy Editor David Hellier Managing Editor Marc Sidwell News Editor Elizabeth Fournier Business Features Editor Tom Welsh Lifestyle Editor Steve Dinneen Sports Editor Frank Dalleres Creative Director Gavin Billenness Commercial Sales Director Jeremy Slattery Head of Distribution Nick Owen Distribution helpline If you have any comments about the distribution of City A.M. please ring , or Editorial Statement: This newspaper adheres to the system of self-regulation overseen by the Press Complaints Commission. 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